Sunday, May 18, 2025

First Impressions: 109th Indianapolis 500 Sunday Qualifying

1. Just when you think you have everything figured out, like manna from heaven, the unexpected falls into your lap. At the start of practice week, Prema was the last team on track, and not just the last team because of pit lane positioning or rules but the last team because its two cars were not ready for the first practice session on Tuesday. Not only were the cars not ready, the cars were not ready for a delayed start to practice! Rain had pushed back the track opening for two hours and 35 minutes, and Prema was still not ready to run. 

It was not a good look for a team many had penciled into the last row battle and possibly faced one of its cars being bumped from the race. 

Five days later, the last car on track ends up on pole position with rookie Robert Shwartzman, a driver who has never run an oval race. Shwartzman showed comfortable pace late in the practice week, and it kind of calmed any nerves he or his teammate Callum Ilott would be in the last row shootout. Both cars looked set to make the top 30. 

Then Shwartzman ran the sixth-fastest time on Saturday after being the fourth car on track. Alright, not bad. We have seen Fast 12 surprises before. Then Shwartzman made the Fast Six, aided a little with an absence of Team Penske due to two inspection violations and an afternoon practice accident. Either way, it was nine cars going for six spots. Shwartzman was not gifted a spot. 

Despite going against two past Indianapolis 500 winner, a three-time IndyCar champion, last year's Indianapolis 500 runner-up and a driver who had qualified in the top nine the past three years in the "500," the driver to come out on top was the Israeli rookie Shwartzman with a four-lap average at 232.790 mph, the first rookie to win Indianapolis 500 pole position since Teo Fabi in 1983. 

This is a stunning outcome. Prema faced a considerably amount of criticism during the preseason when the team separated from engineer Mike Cannon after a week together. The team was painted as to blame for Cannon's departure and it was labeled as clueless to let such a figure go as it was entering IndyCar. Many believed this team would struggle and Cannon would have lifted the team up the order with his expertise. 

It has been a tough season for Prema, as it has struggled to find speed and work through the teething issues of being in a new series. It hasn't been the slowest two cars and miles off the pace. It is struggling to be competitive like a handful of other teams in the series. Indianapolis Motor Speedway is where everyone expected Prema to face its greatest battle. 

The week didn't start out great, but Prema was holding its own. It wasn't slow. It wasn't in danger. Somehow, this team found more than everyone else, and it did it with the rookie who has never raced on an oval before.

Shwartzman entered IndyCar as an unknown. He was runner-up to Oscar Piastri in Formula Two in 2021. He won the 2019 Formula Three championship ahead of the likes of Marcus Armstrong, Christian Lundgaard, Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson. All of this success came with Prema. In the Ferrari junior program, Shwartzman had Formula One dreams, but the door never opened. He spent 2022 on the sideline as Ferrari's test driver. 

In 2023, Shwartzman actually tested for Chip Ganassi Racing that January in Sebring, and he was fastest in a four-car test with Kyffin Simpson, Sting Ray Robb and Dane Cameron in a Team Penske car. Despite that test, Shwartzman started dabbling in sports cars that year, running in GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup. His big break was last year in the FIA World Endurance Championship running a privateer Ferrari 499P with AF Corse.

Results were good last year with co-drivers Robert Kubica and Yifei Ye. They were fourth at Qatar and won at Circuit of the Americas in Austin. When Prema entered IndyCar, it called one of its most recent young talents to join them in an unknown venture. It was a risk for Shwartzman, but this one day has made up for all the rough days over the first five races.

Robert Shwartzman has six days to prepare himself for the biggest moment of his career: Leading a field of 33 cars into turn one for the opening lap of the Indianapolis 500. Five days ago, that likely wasn't even happening in his wildest dreams.

2. From the youth and green face of Robert Shwartzman on pole position, to the experience of a two-time Indianapolis 500 winner starting second. Takuma Sato has put RAHAL LETTERMAN LANIGAN RACING ON THE FRONT ROW! 

The top two teams in Indianapolis 500 qualifying were Prema and Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing? 

Are we sure? 

Five days ago, we were preparing for Prema and RLLR having last chance qualifying entries and battling not to get bumped from the race. Instead, these teams are starting first and second. Sato has been the strongest RLLR driver the last two years. He has carried the team. RLLR has some speed even if its other three cars are not toward the front. 

Sato ran four laps at 232.478 mph. Now a one-off, Sato remains quick and a third Indianapolis 500 is in his sights. 

Sometimes you get all the stories in qualifying. Prema pole position with Shwartzman. Sato second with RLLR. Something must give. This is great for this weekend, but the stories we really remember are made next week. Prema will be abuzz all week and it might be too high for its own good, but Sato and RLLR should be a little more centered. After all, they just won this race five years ago.

Five agonizingly long years ago.

3. Third on the grid looks a little more usual with Patricio O'Ward taking the outside of the front row at 232.098 mph. 

This is setting up to be O'Ward's race. He has a rookie who is diving straight into the deep end and a one-off entry next to him on the front row. I expected O'Ward to go right to the lead on the opening lap just to show dominance. Last year, O'Ward came painfully short of victory. He wants this race more than anything else in the world. This is a prime position for him, and he has a great chance to take charge early.

4. Scott Dixon leads an all-Honda and all-Chip Ganassi Racing-ish row four. Dixon was fourth at 232.052 mph. It was a little stunning Ganassi did not have the speed on Sunday. Álex Palou topped Saturday. Both cars made the Fast Six, but neither showed the strength for pole position. 

Last year, Dixon went from 21st to third, and he found himself in the conversation for victory in the closing laps. As close as O'Ward has been, Dixon has had about five close calls for victory in this race in the last decade. Dixon might not be the same force he once was, but he still has the ability to out maneuver whoever is in his way.

5. Felix Rosenqvist topped the Fast 12 session but could not find that little extra in the final round and his 231.987 mph average puts Rosenqvist fifth. The Swede has shown speed at Indianapolis the last few years, but he must make it to the finish. Last year, he lost an engine while the race was young. That isn't on him. 

The car is there, but considering what it takes to win the Indianapolis 500, we haven't seen Rosenqvist rise to occasions in IndyCar. He has a habit of qualifying well and then fading as races go along. I am sure he is hoping that history does not repeat itself.

6. It is hard to be disappointed with qualifying sixth, but Álex Palou probably believed he was the man to beat this weekend, and being fastest yesterday likely boosted his confidence. Ganassi might have been the team that did not much. After all, Prema did next to nothing ahead of today's qualifying sessions and won pole position. Palou wound up sixth at 231.378 mph. 

The focus is race. Palou has been on a historic tear to start the 2025 season, but he knows it will mostly be forgotten if he doesn't win the Indianapolis 500. This is the first, second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth biggest race on the IndyCar calendar. He could win 15 of 17 races this year and most will forget about it before we even reach Christmas. This is the race that determines his legacy more than any other. 

Palou is a smart driver. He takes a sixth-place starting position and turns it into a victory more than any other driver. He is already over not winning pole position. He is already formulating his strategy to win the race, and it is likely going to be one that is difficult to beat. 

7. Absent from the Fast Six was Team Penske, and this Sunday turned into a rather conspicuous day for the organization as none of its three cars made a qualifying run. Scott McLaughlin had an accident in the afternoon practice session for the Fast 12. The team had no chance of getting a backup car ready for the Fast 12 session. 

Will Power and Josef Newgarden each had their cars fail pre-qualifying inspection and were not allowed to participate after a body fit violation was found on the attenuator. 

Gone was pole position. 

Gone was the Fast Six. 

Hello row four!

After last year's push-to-pass programming violation, Team Penske has been under extra scrutiny for anything it does. The severity of the infraction is not very clear, but it was not up to snuff, and many are suggesting this body fit violation was on the cars yesterday. Patricio O'Ward has already said the Penske cars should have been thrown into the last chance qualifying session. 

Infractions happen. Hélio Castroneves failed inspection before qualifying began yesterday and he lost his place in the first run through the line. Conor Daly failed after his first attempt yesterday. We don't know why those two failed, but neither was raked over the coals. Last year, Callum Ilott had his first run on Saturday disallowed when driving for McLaren. It just happened that both Penske cars ready for an attempt in the Fast 12 were found to have this minor issue but it was not compliant with the rulebook.

It would only be fair to believe all three Penske cars passed inspection yesterday after thorough inspection from IndyCar officials. The concern though is this was found on Josef Newgarden's car as he was going through inspection today. Will Power's car had already passed and was on pit lane. When they went to check Power's car on the grid, the attenuator was the same as Newgarden's and the team pulled out of the qualifying line as it had to make a change to the car, which is not allowed once a car passes inspection. 

The belief in major motorsports is every team is pushing it, and some violations aren't deliberate. There is no proof Team Penske got one pass the officials yesterday. The attenuator on McLaughlin's car was legal. It doesn't look like this was a deliberate effort from Team Penske to break the rules, but the benefit of the doubt has been stretched rather thin in IndyCar, especially after last year's push-to-pass infraction. 

This situation has not helped the perception of a Roger Penske-owned team not getting beneficial treatment in the Roger Penske-owned series. Obviously, the blind eye isn't being turned because Newgarden was disallowed to run today and Power was withdrawn from qualifying as well. Penske was penalized for its infractions last year. Team Penske is being penalized when found in violation of rules, but in the two most recent cases, the infraction has been found rather late in the game. 

The first instance was in the Long Beach warm-up session after Penske scored victory in St. Petersburg. The second was ahead of the second qualifying day for the Indianapolis 500 when Penske had all three cars advance to the Fast 12 after day one. 

This story is only getting started, and there will be more displeasure expressed in no time. For now, Team Penske has row four of the 109th Indianapolis 500 all to itself.  

8. Speaking of the fourth row, with none of those drivers making an attempt today, their order is set via their speeds from Saturday. That puts Scott McLaughlin in tenth, Josef Newgarden in 11th and Will Power in 12th. 

For this race, Team Penske is going to be fine. All three cars are going to work their way forward. It will at least be something to watch as the laps click down. 

McLaughlin will have his work cutout for him with a backup car. Team Penske did have a backup car ready in case one of its three drivers had an issue. I am sure that car will be in the ballpark. It might not be quite to his liking immediately, but McLaughlin will have Monday practice and Carb Day to get it into a zone. 

Newgarden has looked great all practice week. He is going to move forward and be a factor come race day. He was motivated last year after the penalties and the black eye he took. If you don't think he will be fired up on Sunday, you are mistaken.  

Power was only tenth after Saturday qualifying. We didn't see the Penske speed across the board. I have a feeling Power would have found something today if he had a run and he would have made the Fast Six. Last year, Power started second and he went backward in the race. I cannot imagine the team is going to repeat that performance in 2025.

9. We covered row four before we covered row three and all these individuals likely gained at least one if not three spots thanks to Team Penske's Sunday. 

David Malukas will start seventh. This has been Malukas' best event with A.J. Foyt Racing. He hasn't been outstandingly quick. At the end of no practice day did we compliment Malukas for his performance. I don't know where Malukas will shake out in the race. He hasn't looked like a contender, but he is closer to the front than most will be at the start, and the last time the seventh-place starter won the Indianapolis 500 it was a first-time winner, his team owner A.J. Foyt in 1961. That coincidence is falling in Malukas' favor.

10. Christian Lundgaard gets eighth on the grid, 20 spots better than his previous best starting position for the Indianapolis 500. Lundgaard has had a similar week as Malukas. Nothing all that brilliant, but Lundgaard has looked good. I am not sure anyone thought Lundgaard would make the Fast 12, but he had his best run come at the right time to sneak into the session. Lundgaard has been used to running at the back and watching himself at Indianapolis. Every year he has gained position. He should be comfortable in traffic, but he has never been this far up the order other than during pit cycles in this race. There will be plenty still to learn on the fly come Sunday.

11. And in ninth, the outside of row three, Marcus Ericsson will be the top Andretti Global car. Ericsson likely doubted he would be the top Andretti qualifier heading into Saturday. Being the first car on track yesterday likely gave Ericsson a top 12 spot. He hasn't looked all that competitive in practice. It isn't about what you deserve. Ericsson has gotten this opportunity, and he has a chance to make the most of it.

12. This might have been the most predictable Last Chance Qualifying session we have seen since this format was adopted ahead of the 2019 race. Marco Andretti ended up 31st at 229.741 mph. Marcus Armstrong was 32nd at 229.091 mph. Rinus VeeKay took 33rd, but not after a staggeringly stupid decision to withdraw his first run at 227.740 mph. 

VeeKay made a second run with just under six minutes to go. It was slower at 226.913 mph. The only save grace for VeeKay was he was against Jacob Abel, whose best run was a four-lap average at the 227.112 mph, but Abel had a hot car and the margin of error was next to nothing. Abel was unable to replicate that run and went 226.394 mph, missing the race. 

First off, VeeKay was going to be fine at 227.740 mph. There was no world where Abel was going to find over 6/10ths of a mile per hour over four laps to make the race. Abel was the slowest all week, and considerably slower than the rest of the field. It really feels like the team talked VeeKay into an additional run in hopes that he and Abel would knock down Armstrong, but that was never going to happen either. 

In no world was VeeKay going to find over 1.3 mph over four laps and Abel would jump nearly two miles per hour and run blindingly quicker than he has run all month to have both Coyne cars make the race. It wasn't going to happen. 

It is back to the drawing board for Dale Coyne Racing. Last year was bad with Nolan Siegel missing. To have a car miss in consecutive years when there have only been 34 entries speaks volumes to where Dale Coyne Racing is in the year 2025. That is without mentioning that this was the third consecutive year both DCR cars were in the last chance qualifying session. 

Dale Coyne Racing is being left behind. It had its glorious period from 2017 through 2019. It won races. It led the championship. It probably should have had an Indianapolis 500 pole position with Sébastien Bourdais. Those days are a distant memory, and they are not coming back anytime soon. 

Nothing is going to change. We have 40 years of history with this team. Those three seasons were an anomaly in the history of the team.

13. I don't believe Dale Coyne Racing will make the decision to withdraw VeeKay and put Jacob Abel with his Miller High Life sponsorship in the race. It has happened before. Twenty years ago, ten years ago, I think we would definitely see this happen. I don't think it happens this year, but it is possible. If it happens, don't pretend you were not warned. 

14. Qualifying weekend is complete, and it turned out to be an unthinkable session. Rookie pole-sitter. Team Penske controversy. A near bone-headed withdrawal. At least it wasn't boring.

15. Practice tomorrow. Practice on Friday. A week from now, we will be through the 109th Indianapolis 500. As quickly as it has arrived, the end is near. Summer is basically over, folks. Enjoy these last few days.