Sunday, August 10, 2025

First Impressions: Portland 2025

1. The nightmare is over (somewhat) for Team Penske as Will Power achieved a dominant victory from Portland, the first victory for both team and driver in what has been an exhausting 2025 season for both. 

Power got the lead by staying out under caution when Conor Daly spun into the barrier after contact with Christian Rasmussen. The pit window had just opened for everyone to make it on three stops, but it was still early, and everyone that stayed out could run another 20 laps or so on fuel. The leaders prior to the caution were shuffled to outside the top ten, and though they were good on a three-stop strategy, this allowed Power to fly. Over the remained of that stint, Power opened a gap that allowed him to make his first pit stop and come out ahead of the likes of Christian Lundgaard and Felix Rosenqvist. From there, the advantage was Power's until the very end, even with a stint on the primary tire still to run. 

As long as Power held the track position, he was going to win this race. Lundgaard made it tight on the penultimate stint when Lundgaard had the tire advantage running the alternate tire to Power's primary tires. On the final stint, Power had used set of alternate tires while Lundgaard had a fresh alternate set. For almost that entire final stint, Power had Lundgaard breathing down his next, and it would not be long until Álex Palou was there as well. 

Despite the tire situation and traffic holding up Power, he was able to keep the competition at arm's length even at the end of the race when tire conditions should have swung to the favor of his competitors. It was a throwback race for the 44-year-old. He won this race through shear pace and once ahead he dared the rest of the field to beat him. They came close but they could not overcome the Australian. 

Over this weekend, I was thinking about how we could be seeing the final days of Will Power in IndyCar, and I have more on the subject that can be read tomorrow, but Power should have locked down an extension after this race. His fastball might not be at 100%, but it is still better than about 90% of the grid. Power has been the bright spot for Team Penske this season. 

To extinguish the brightest light when the team will still be going through a transition in 2026 could be the most foolish decision Roger Penske has made as a car owner.

2. Christian Lundgaard had to start seventh today after serving a six-spot grid penalty for taking on his fifth engine of the season. This knocked Lundgaard from pole position, and if he had only started first, maybe this would have been Lundgaard's race to control, but it all hung on what tire he started on. Power stayed out under the Daly caution because he was on the alternate tire. Perhaps Lundgaard would have stayed out even if he had started on the primary tire from pole position, but the only other drivers to stay out on the primary tire were Álex Palou and Devlin DeFrancesco. One guy can run whatever strategy he wants and will still be there at the finish. The other is just throwing up Hail Marys.

The most frustrating thing from this race was the amount of fuel Lundgaard had to save to make it, and he ran out of fuel just after he took the checkered flag in second. I hate to point this out but the #7 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet had a few notable issues with fuel mileage last season with Alexander Rossi as the driver. That timing stand might want to take a look at some of its decisions because it almost cost the driver today and it cost the previous driver.

3. Álex Palou didn't need to finish third to clinch the championship. It was clinched on lap 21 when wiring issues caused Patricio O'Ward to slow on track and effectively end O'Ward's race. 

It was inevitable that Palou was going to win this championship. He entered this weekend needing to only score 41 points over the final three races, something he could have easily done in this race alone. I was wishing for it end today so we could end the false hope that the title was alive. It hasn't been alive since April. Palou has been that ruthless and no one has come close to rivaling his output. 

Even though he finished third, Palou was probably the best driver today. At one point, he was over 20 seconds behind Power, and traffic helped close the gap, but a great majority of that deficit was overcome through Palou's driving alone. That ninth victory of the season was within touching distance. It didn't come today and sole-possession of the single season record for victories is gone, but Palou still has a chance at a share of the record. We are going to have plenty of time to recognize Palou's greatness. Today, he has locked himself a place in history that few have reached before and few will reach after. 

4. There was a caution on lap three when Santino Ferrucci spun exiting the final corner, and it allowed some drivers to take a gamble. Six drivers made a pit stop to get off of the primary tire. It was still going to require three more stops to make the finish, but Graham Rahal drove an excellent race to remain at the front and have that four-stop strategy cycle to a point he was level with the leaders. 

Rahal was seconds off the top three, but he was legitimately fourth with his pace matching though on a different strategy. For a second, it looked like it was going to backfire, but Rahal had good pace to keep the car at the front. He never got shuffled into traffic that cost him. It helped that Rahal had three sets of new alternate tires for this race. For all the struggles Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing has had this year, and over the last few years, it can put together races like this where they do not look that far off and actually look better than a good number of teams ahead of them on paper. 

5. Alexander Rossi gets his first top five finish of the season on what was his and Ed Carpenter Racing's best race weekend of the season. Rossi had good speed all weekend. He just missed out on the final round of qualifying but was still starting sixth after the grid penalty to Lundgaard. Rossi was holding his own all race. He didn't quite have the stuff to compete with Power, Lundgaard and Palou, but he was a top five car all race. This should be a good boost for him, and it comes at a good time as the final two races are ovals, where he and ECR likely think they can end on a high note.

6. Like Rahal, Callum Ilott stopped on lap four under the Ferrucci caution, and for the third consecutive race, Ilott held his own on an alternate strategy. He matches Prema's best finish of sixth, which Ilott set at Laguna Seca two weeks ago. It required a gamble as neither Prema car started better than 24th, but both Prema cars were on this strategy. Ilott ended up sixth and Shwartzman was 15th. Ilott had to do some special driving today to make this work. It has been a tough year, but he is ending on a high note.

7. Scott McLaughlin was seventh on a day where Power was victorious. McLaughlin ran the same tire strategy as Power but he did not have the same pace to match Power. I bet McLaughlin wishes he finished a little higher because he restarted third after the Daly caution. It is one thing that you are not going to maintain that spot and a driver or two who stopped under that caution will cycle ahead, but at that point the aim should be for a top five. I think what McLaughlin and the rest of us did not count on was two cars that stopped on lap four making that strategy work into a top six finish. 

It is a moral victory but McLaughlin did finish four spots better than where he started. Take it when you can get it.

8. Marcus Armstrong did nothing impressive but started and finished eighth, and I think that is still a good day. It is another top ten for Armstrong and Meyer Shank Racing. It has been a banner year for both driver and team. I do not understand how these two parties cannot find a way to continue into 2026. If Team Penske was beating down the door for Armstrong, I would get how they would part, but Armstrong is running more consistent than a great number of drivers who are more celebrated than him, and there are almost no takers lining up for this New Zealander. That is a big miss. It is even bigger if MSR let him walk.

9. Even better for Armstrong is he beat his teammate as Felix Rosenqvist was ninth. For a moment, we thought this race was lining up for Rosenqvist to compete for a victory, but as we too often see in IndyCar, Rosenqvist can start in the top five but he has trouble finishing in the top five. Rosenqvist was ahead of Lundgaard after the first round of pit stops, and Rosenqvist had a chance to control this race or at least control the drivers on the strategy of stopping under the Daly caution. Instead, Rosenqvist lost ground on each stint and ended up behind his teammate, who did good but not great today. 

If MSR had to Sophie's choice its two drivers, it should keep Armstrong over Rosenqvist. Both have done great this year. There is a good chance both MSR drivers will finish in the championship top ten, something that was absurd to think about two years ago, but after seven seasons in IndyCar, Rosenqvist's shortcomings are too apparent to ignore.

10. Colton Herta was tenth in a dismal day for Andretti Global. I am going to cover all the Andretti cars here. Herta was mid-pack all race, and he was fortunate Scott Dixon and Josef Newgarden got together to gift him two spots. 

Kyle Kirkwood was hanging with Herta for most of the opening stint, and it is unclear how Kirkwood lost all the ground to the point he finished a lap down in 20th. 

Even worse, Marcus Ericsson blew a top ten starting position for Andretti, and Ericsson was a lap down in 22nd, with all his screen time in this race being because he was holding up Power and allowed Palou to close in on the top two. Ericsson was the best starting Andretti car in this race and he spent most of the race running as the worst Andretti car. 

We haven't really seen this race from the Andretti Global group this season where none of the three cars look competitive. It happened today, and the team is not trending in the right direction as we approach the end of the 2025 season.

11. Despite the contact and penalty for avoidable contact, Scott Dixon was still 11th after the drive-through penalty when he spun Newgarden in turn two. Without it, Dixon may finish in the top five. Otherwise he would have been sixth or seventh. 

Newgarden was just coming out of the pit lane and on cold tires as he was slow through the chicane. Newgarden did nearly come to a complete stop in turn two and Dixon had nowhere to go but through him. I think Dixon should have had the wherewithal to back up that corner and get the run on exit especially since Newgarden was a sitting duck on cold tires.

As for Newgarden, he kind of put himself in a spot to get run over. What is worse is it took Newgarden almost two laps to get the car re-fired after a pretty lazy spin. It was a top ten finish lost, but if he gets the hybrid working immediately that car is re-fired and he is still going to finish 14th or 15th. Instead, it is 24th and another abysmal day for Newgarden in one of the worst years of his career.

12. Let's tackle the Christian Rasmussen and Conor Daly incident because Rasmussen ended up 12th in this race and never got a penalty for the contact with Daly. 

It all started with Daly's attempt to pass on the outside of turn seven. Rasmussen drove off the road, forcing Daly off as well. We saw this a little over a month ago between Daly and Santino Ferrucci at Mid-Ohio. Ferrucci drove off the road and took Daly with him. It was clearly a block and Ferrucci was penalized. Rasmussen should have gotten the same penalty today. 

What doesn't help is Daly, in all his anger, clearly went into the chicane and was fine if he hit Rasmussen and took him out. Daly didn't quite do that but it was obvious what he attempted. Rasmussen remained ahead and then we got to turns 10 and 11 and Daly spun after contact with Rasmussen, flying into the barrier. 

I think both drivers are at fault. I think both drivers should have been penalized. 

Rasmussen forced Daly off track. Daly was reckless. Even on the third incident, I don't think it is obvious as Rasmussen spun Daly. There was no clear replay angle of what happened, but I believe Daly committed to making a pass in that corner and was putting Rasmussen into a spot where Daly was coming through and it was on Rasmussen to decide whether or not he would back out to avoid contact.

Rasmussen didn't back out. There was contact. Daly had a heavy hit into the barriers. Rasmussen was able to continue. 

No penalty was issued, which leads me to believe the officials saw it as Daly made an aggressive move and the contact wasn't because Rasmussen initiated it but because Daly put Rasmussen into a position where unless Rasmussen backed out there would be contact. 

The unfortunate thing is there should have at least been a callback to Mid-Ohio and some thought that Ferrucci was penalized for running Daly off the road, which meant Rasmussen would see the same fate. But race control has been a little too inconsistent, which led Daly to boil over and take matters into his own hands. 

That isn't good because all that will lead to is incidents like this. Daly drove at an aggression level that was too far over the edge. He clearly had no problem making contact with Rasmussen. I get the sense Daly made that move thinking if there was contact both cars would have been out of the race. Instead, it was only Daly out and Rasmussen got to finish 12th.
 
I don't think Daly is as much the victim as he has made himself out to be in the immediate aftermath of the incident. Rasmussen isn't innocent either. 

Two wrongs do not make a right, and race control cannot let the driver's police themselves if they are going to be so recklessly wrong. 

13. That was a lot on the 12th-place finisher. Let's blast through the rest of the field.

Louis Foster overcame being spun on lap eight to finish 13th. It was a good race when you consider he was facing the wrong way at one point. 

Sting Ray Robb stopped on lap four and finished 14th. Ok. Robb didn't do anything notable to get that result. 

Robert Shwartzman gets his first top fifteen finish on a road/street course in 15th. Considering Shwartzman and Ilott started a position a part on track and were on the same strategy, stopping on lap four, finishing nine spots a part is a little hard to swallow. If Shwartzman could have pulled off tenth or 11th in this race, it would have been a much more positive result.

Nolan Siegel started 17th and finished 16th, and I don't think he was mentioned once on the broadcast.

14. Along with Foster being spun on lap eight, Rinus VeeKay was also spun on lap eight, but the difference is Kyffin Simpson spun Foster and got a penalty. No one else was penalized for the contact VeeKay received, and I am pretty sure one of the Prema cars got into VeeKay. That is a bit harsh. VeeKay did finish 17th, but there is nothing to celebrate with such a result.

15. Devlin DeFrancesco stayed out until lap 32, and going long on the first stint did not do DeFrancesco wonders like it did for Power and Palou. DeFrancesco dropped like a rock and at the finish he was 18th. That sounds about right for him.

David Malukas had to make an extra pit stop late in the race and it took away what was going to be a tenth-place finish. However, Malukas would have been in Colton Herta's shoes and been tenth thanks to Dixon and Newgarden's contact. Malukas spent much of this race outside the top fifteen. He lost spots at the start and wasn't holding his own against the other cars that started in the top ten. 

And Malukas is in the catbird seat to replace Will Power at Team Penske. Are you kidding me? Are we sure Roger Penske is of sound body and mind?

16. The only two finishers we have not touched upon are Kyffin Simpson, who was 21st and his day was ruined after the penalty for the contact with Foster, and Jacob Abel, who was 23rd but Abel held up Rosenqvist and Lundgaard as Power was able to cover the pit delta to make his first stop and exit the pit lane ahead of those two. If it wasn't for Abel, who stopped on lap four and ended up being a roadblock to Rosenqvist and Lundgaard, I don't think Power wins this race. 

17. Let's cover the retirees. This season was always likely going to finish with Patricio O'Ward being one spot short of a championship. If you are going to lose, you mind as well have it be one through the skull rather than a death by a thousand cuts. 

The last month has been false hope that O'Ward could take the title fight to Palou. Even if O'Ward won today, he wasn't going to win the championship. Even if he made up 48 points to Palou, the gap would still be 60 points with two races to go and O'Ward would still need to make up at least 12 more points at Milwaukee to have a sliver of a chance at Nashville. We are talking about a collapse of historic proportions just for O'Ward to have a prayer at the finale. It might have been best that the car broke down not even a quarter of the way into this race to end up the aimless hype of something that was never going to happen. 

It sucks that this is how it ended for O'Ward, but it was always going to end this way. Now the focus can be on ending on the highest note possible in the final two races and not get distracted with an unobtainable prize.

18. Santino Ferrucci's race didn't even make it two laps, and Ferrucci's spin is a little puzzling. Something happened to Ferrucci because he started 21st but he was in 26th at the end of lap one. On the exit of the final corner, Ferrucci lost the rear, and as the broadcasters said, Ferrucci decided to light it up in hopes that he would just power through the spin. Instead that led to him getting into the inside barrier on the main straightaway.

That just seems like the most immature decision to make in such a spot. It was the end of lap two. Ferrucci was in 25th. Deciding to floor it in hopes that you will spin and hit nothing is just a bad strategy. Even if he spins and hits nothing, Ferrucci is now back in 27th and with garbage tires, meaning he would need to stop next time by, and it likely would not have drawn a full course caution because Ferrucci would have continued and he would be at no risk of another car hitting hit because he would be in dead last. The closest car would have been 45 seconds away. The right move would have been to lift and live to fight another day even if it meant dropping back to 26th or 27th. 

Watching it and listening to the booth explain Ferrucci's thinking just made the entire accident appear to be unnecessary and completely avoidable. 

19. And from the final road course race of the season we head into the final off-weekend of the season. We all get a breather. Chip Ganassi Racing and Álex Palou get a week to celebrate. After that, it is Milwaukee and Nashville in consecutive weeks to close out the season. Rest up.