Palou wasn't blitzing the competition this week. He was there but it was not apparent he would be the driver to beat in qualifying. He doesn't need to be the fastest in qualifying. Palou just has to be close. Start in the top eight and his odds are greater than most starting on the front row.
Every race feels it is destined to be Palou's. This is no different. We are at a moment in time when every race goes through one driver. The question is "Who is finishing second?" That is even true for the Indianapolis 500.
Palou controls all history and every other driver's legacies. We are on the verge of looking back at a driver who has everything and a great number of talented drivers with little to show for their careers.
2. Alexander Rossi is on the front row, as Rossi ran at 231.990 mph to take second. Ed Carpenter Racing has not been the usual pole position threat in recent years, but it has found something, and Rossi's track record at Indianapolis is rather encouraging.
Rossi does not come from behind. His only victory from outside the top five is his first career victory, the 100th Indianapolis 500, which happened a decade ago, and he won from 11th on an empty tank. He is at the front this year. As long as he doesn't lose track position, we know Rossi can be a factor. He hasn’t really ever had to race Palou, a mighty task for all on the grid. Rossi has to find his 2018 form to win this one.
3. David Malukas' first Indianapolis 500 for Team Penske sees him on the front row after running four laps at 231.877 mph. Malukas continues to be consistently quick. He is the best starting Team Penske driver for another race.
This change has not spooked Malukas. Being paired with Josef Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin has not rattled him. Malukas is the driver Penske can feel most confident in, but Malukas still has much to prove to win a race. He has run well, but the closing laps of the Indianapolis 500 are a foreign realm for him. If the pressure hasn’t got to him yet, he could be fine, but we will find out a lot about him next Sunday
4. It was another year where Felix Rosenqvist lost speed in qualifying, and after topping the Fast 12, Rosenqvist could not remain on the front row. He will start fourth after running at 231.375 mph.
Rosenqvist looks good. He has looked good all week, but as has been the problem with Rosenqvist for years, he qualifies well but then the pace vanishes in the race. We see him start in the top five but he does not finish there enough and he seldomly finishes better than where he starts when at the front. He could be a factor, but history suggests it will be tough to hang around.
5. Starting fifth will be Santino Ferrucci, as Ferrucci ran a 230.846-mph average. We know how well Ferrucci has run at Indianapolis. This pace was a little better than we were expecting. Ferrucci looked like a Fast 12 factor, but the Fast Six was perhaps out of reach.
For a driver who has finished in the top ten in every Indianapolis 500 start, it is tough to believe it will continue. Nothing lasts forever, even when you are quick. This field is tough. Ferrucci is up there, but he will need to beat some incredible drivers.
6. Patricio O'Ward rounds out row two after running at 230.442 mph. This has not been the most impressive week for O'Ward, but there are plenty of positives. Arrow McLaren has not looked spectacular, but O'Ward has shown good pace, He is in the conversation.
It might not feel like O'Ward's year at this moment, but he is in the picture. The team should be motivated. A teammate won the most recent race, but to cement himself as the McLaren leader, a victory in the Indianapolis 500 will go much further. He is still McLaren's favorite going into race day.
7. Falling shy of the Fast Six was Kyffin Simpson, who will start seventh. Simpson surprises us. He does well, but there are still races where he is anonymous. He is good until he isn't. On this occasion, he looked really good and he has held his own against two outstanding Chip Ganassi Racing teammates. Will it carry over to the race? There are a lot of tough drivers on the grid. Simpson will need his greatest performance on Sunday.
8. It is hard to be disappointed in your best starting position ever for the Indianapolis 500, but Conor Daly was expecting more. It has still been a successful qualifying week to start eighth. This has been the best May of Daly’s career. The tough part will be the race. Dreyer & Reinbold Racing raced well last year after Ryan Hunter-Reay wound up at the front. The strategy is much different when starting eighth. That is a question mark for this group entering race week.
9. The road to redemption will begin from ninth for Scott McLaughlin. It is a good spot. It felt like McLaughlin could make the Fast Six, but ninth is a good spot. As long as he gets through the pace laps, he should be fine. He is going to drive a smart race. He usually does.
10. Our fastest rookie qualifier is Caio Collet. Good for him! However, we have seen two other A.J. Foyt Racing drivers as the fastest rookie in recent years and those drivers were Matheus Leist and Benjamin Pedersen. How did it turn out for those guys? I hesitate to get too excited about any rookie qualifying tenth in the Indianapolis 500. We have seen them come and go. Four laps is one thing. The race is 200. After that we can draw conclusions about Collet.
11. Scott Dixon will start 11th. Good, but not great, and that has been the story of Dixon's season. He has done well, but he has been just outside the picture of being a challenger. Perhaps that is what he needs. Perhaps his next big result is just from the fringe.
12. Considering Juncos Hollinger Racing had never made the Fast 12 before this year, Rinus VeeKay ending up 12th is a big result for this group. VeeKay has run well at Indianapolis, and he should be filled with encouragement. The problem is seeing how JHR handles the pressure of being at the front. It hasn't run at the front of many races before let alone running at the front of the Indianapolis 500. Twelfth isn’t the sharp point of the grid, but it is closer to first than most.
13. Takuma Sato just missed out on the Fast 12 as did Ed Carpenter and Hélio Castroneves to make one of the oldest rows in Indianapolis 500 history. If there was any magic left at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, it would be hiding out on row five. Sato did well last year. Carpenter hasn't been that much of a challenger recently. You cannot rule out Castroneves. There is no shortage of feel-good stories.
14. Row six will feature Christian Rasmussen, Marcus Armstrong and Marcus Ericsson. We have seen Rasmussen drive forward in each of his first two Indianapolis 500s. Armstrong is starting much better than last year, and he raced well. Andretti Global never really showed confidence all week. None of its cars crack the top half of the field. Ericsson is its best qualifier. I don't know if Ericsson can keep pulling out strong performances from 18th starting position.
15. The early draw did not benefit Christian Lundgaard as he and Nolan Siegel sandwich WIll Power on row seven. Lundgaard went forward last year. Power hasn't been great this year. Siegel has done better in recent races.
16. You will see Louis Foster start 22nd next to two past winners, Ryan Hunter-Reay and Josef Newgarden. I didn't think Newgarden would be that far off. It felt like he had the pace to make the Fast 12. Starting 32nd didn't stop him last year, and if the car didn’t break, he could have been in the top five. He is actually in a better position this year but still has a lot of work to do.
17. Row nine features Romain Grosjean, Kyle Kirkwood and Katherine Legge. Kirkwood has seemed frustrated the entire week. At least Dale Coyne Racing wasn't bumped this year. I think 27th was rather good for Legge.
18. Mick Schumacher is the second-fastest rookie qualifier in 28th. That is probably as good as it was going to be for Schumacher. He is two spots ahead of Graham Rahal. Some things never change. Jack Harvey will be between the Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing drivers. I wasn't convinced Harvey would make the Fast 12. I didn't think he would be on row ten though.
19. The last row party features two rookies, Dennis Hauger and Jacob Abel. Last-place will be Sting Ray Robb. With no reason to push it, I am sure they are happy just to get through qualifying. The big prize is on Sunday. It does not feel like any of these three have what it takes to pull off the unprecedented. Each will be happy to complete all 200 laps.
20. And now we wait! One week until race day. Plenty of time to ponder what is to come. And that is what we will do. Stay tuned.
