Showing posts with label CGR. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CGR. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 11, 2026

2026 IndyCar Team Preview: Chip Ganassi Racing

Eighteen days from the 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season opener, and we move to a team who enters this season looking for its 18th IndyCar championship. This would be its fourth consecutive and sixth in the last seven seasons. Chip Ganassi Racing has never been stronger, and it has previously had some historically dominant periods. 

Nothing has changed. Drivers are the same. Management is the same. It gained a new and notable sponsor. Other than that, Chip Ganassi Racing looks the same, and with no changes it is difficult to believe much will be different this season.

At A Glance... Wash, rinse, repeat
What do you want to hear about Chip Ganassi Racing? We know what this team is capable of, and it will likely achieve it again. Chip Ganassi Racing has won five of the last six championships. It has the best driver in IndyCar, and one of the greatest drivers in IndyCar history. It actually has two of the greatest drivers in IndyCar history.

What do think will be different? Ganassi is going to win races, it is going to have two strong drivers, Álex Palou is probably going to win the championship, and we are going to repeat what we have been saying for the entire 2020s. 

I don't know what to write about this group. Nothing changed. What is going to change now? Ganassi isn't going to struggle. It is not going to get lost and start making mistakes. The speed isn't going to disappear. Palou is going to be quick everywhere. Scott Dixon is going to be in Palou's shadow to a point where everyone will think he has lost a step but Dixon is still finishing fifth, and no one really cares about Kyffin Simpson's results. Simpson's results are not a reflection of the Ganassi organization's ability.

There are no surprises around this group. It isn't Team Penske, which is bringing in a young driver with a spotty track record to a group that has underground some managerial changes and is coming off its worst season in a quarter-century. It isn't Andretti Global, which has brought in a great driver but one who is over 40 and it is a team that largely under performs. It isn't Arrow McLaren, which is constantly changing drivers and is never satisfied. It isn't Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, which is constantly struggling to find speed. Then there is the other half of the grid that seldom win. Until Ganassi shows it has a weakness, it is pointless trying to look for one.

A team needs to beat Ganassi, not impossible, but not something we have seen on a regular basis for quite some time. Can any team do that? Team Penske has done it, but it has been a minute. It has been a little longer for Andretti Global. Arrow McLaren could do it. We need to see it though, and it has proven to be quite difficult.

Until we see it, expect Ganassi to remain on top. 

2025 Chip Ganassi Racing Review
Wins: 9 (St. Petersburg, Thermal Club, Barber, Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Indianapolis 500, Road America, Mid-Ohio, Iowa II, Laguna Seca, Milwaukee)
Poles: 6 (Barber, Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Mid-Ohio, Iowa II, Laguna Seca, Milwaukee)
Championship Finishes: 1st (Álex Palou), 3rd (Scott Dixon), 17th (Kyffin Simpson)

Kyffin Simpson - #8 Sunoco Honda
Numbers to Remember:
6: Top ten finishes in 2025

10: Full-time drivers in which Simpson had more top ten finishes than in 2025

4.29411: Improvement in average finish from 2024 (19.47058) to 2025 (15.17647)

What is the best possible outcome?
An improvement and making a push for the top ten in the championship. 

Simpson did look better in his sophomore season, and he had a few races with really good pace. It netted him some strong results. From no top ten finishes to six is a big jump. There were still a few weak weekends and it shows there is still room for improvement. If he can get up to eight or nine top ten finishes, it would be a good step and it will likely see him in the conversation for the championship top ten. It would definitely get him in the top fifteen.

What is realistic?
Simpson's best results came due to some fortunate cautions and strategy in 2025. Take away his fifth at Detroit and third at Toronto and he is likely better than 21st in the championship, but he would not have been as good as 17th. I don't know if he is going to get a top five finish this season. He had three last season, but his overall pace does not suggest that will be a norm for him. He can still be competitive and get a half-dozen top ten finishes, though those finishes will likely be eighths, ninths and tenths. 

Scott Dixon - #9 PNC Bank Honda
Numbers to Remember:
2: Fast Six appearances in 2025 (St. Petersburg and Indianapolis 500)

12.647: Average starting position in 2025, his worst since 2005 (12.235)

3: Seasons in the last four with an average starting position worse than tenth

2: Seasons from 2001 to 2021 where Dixon had an average starting position worse than tenth. Along with 2005, the other season was his rookie year in 2001 (11.75)

What is the best possible outcome?
Dixon is a six-time championship. Enough said.

To expand on that, Dixon needs to fine a way to beat his teammate, which is trying to get from fourth to first in Dixon's case, and it wasn't long ago the New Zealander was the driver to beat at Chip Ganassi Racing. Few can match Dixon's consistency, and if Dixon remains consistent with any slip up from Palou, it could be Dixon controlling the championship even if he isn't winning eight or nine races. Dixon can be champion with three victories and 13 top five finishes. Few are going to be able to match that. If one of those three victories was the Indianapolis 500, it would be the cherry on top.

What is realistic?
It is realistic Dixon does not win a race this season. 

Let's just cover that straight up. Dixon could fail to win a race this season and it not be a disaster. You know why? Because Dixon was about six laps away from not winning a race n 2025 if Palou did not fall off the road from the lead at Mid-Ohio. Even if Palou had remained on the track, Dixon still would have finished second in that race and he still would have been third in the championship. A streak would have ended but in no way would it suggest Dixon had lost something. It just wasn't his year. 

It was only three years ago we went into the final four races and Dixon did not have a victory. He then won three of the final four. Just based on Dixon's consistency and the longevity of it, he is good enough to be the best for at least one race. It could be better than that and he could pull in multiple victories.

In the last 21 seasons, Dixon has finished in the top three of the championship 16 times. He has not finished worse than sixth since 2005. We know what Dixon can do.

Álex Palou - #10 DHL Honda
Numbers to Remember:
12: Palou was first in 12 statistical categories in the 2025 season (Victories, podium finishes, top five finishes, top ten finishes, pole positions, Fast Six appearances, Fast 12 appearances, races led, laps led, fastest laps, average starting position, average finishing position)

3.352: Average starting position in 2025
 
4.0588: Average finishing position in 2025

98: Career starts

What is the worst possible outcome?
We know the best possible outcome for Palou. He has won three consecutive championships, but what is Palou's worst possible outcome for the season? How bad could 2026 be? 

That is much harder to answer.

He is going to win at least one race. The worst possible 2026 season for Palou at Chip Ganassi Racing still includes one victory. It likely includes two. He isn't going to slow down, and he will likely still be a regular podium finisher. Five podium finishes feels like the lowest possible total for Palou. He is going to get two or three on road courses. He is going to get another two or three on street courses. Even on ovals he is likely good for one podium finish if not more. He could get two podium finishes in each discipline and we could view that as a dreadful season. 

A worst possible outcome includes some unfortunate results, which have largely been avoided in Palou's IndyCar career. This season would need to be a market correction of sorts. Something that looks like a Josef Newgarden season in recent years. Bad pit stops, collateral damage when other cars spin or miss a braking point, maybe a mechanical issue or two. There would need to be a slump, a genuine slump and not just one bad result because David Malukas' talent is limited. A three-race run outside the top ten with at least a pair of those outside the top fifteen would be a shock when it comes to Palou. 

However, even in Palou's worst possible season, it is probably still a pretty strong season. He might have four bad races, five tops, but it would still include a dozen good races.

The worst possible outcome is dropping to sixth or seventh. He has only one victory, he still has five podium finishes, but those four or five bad races take down his points total. A few early retirements mean he is finishing outside the top twenty and scoring single-digit points. While he has a bunch of podiums, he gets stuck in the back half of the top ten in more races. Finishes of seventh, eighth and ninth are good, but not great. 

Meanwhile, a combination of Scott Dixon being Scott Dixon, Josef Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin both rising after a down season, Patricio O'Ward remaining a hassle, Will Power settling in nicely at Andretti Global, and Kyle Kirkwood running well sees Palou fall down to seventh. It is not great in Palou's terms but it could still be much worse.

What is realistic?
Again, we know Palou can be champion. It feels more likely he will be champion than not be champion, but let's reframe realistic in terms of the history book.

Palou is a driver with three consecutive championships and four total. He could win a fourth consecutive championship and join Sébastien Bourdais as the only drivers with four consecutive titles. That is realistic. It isn't crazy to think it would happen.

In terms of career victory, Palou enters this season with 19 victories. One more and Palou hits the 20-milestone, a good total to reach. If he wins eight races again, he will end with 27, which would put Palou level with Johnny Rutherford in 15th all-time.

It isn't impossible, but eight victories in a second consecutive season is a stretch. Only once in IndyCar history has a driver won at least eight races in consecutive seasons. That was someone called Mario Andretti in 1966 and 1967.

Six victories would still be a great season even if it is fewer than the previous season. IndyCar could tighten up quickly, but Palou will remain one of the best. Three or four victories is a great win total in nine seasons out of ten. Three victories would put Palou level with Tony Bettenhausen and Emerson Fittipaldi in the record book, and Palou is only in his seventh IndyCar season. Four victories for Palou puts him on 23 and it would put him tied for 20th all-time with Tommy Milton.

That is within reach.

The 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season begins on Sunday March 1 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage will begin at noon Eastern.


Wednesday, October 29, 2025

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Chip Ganassi Racing's 2025 Season

Our final IndyCar Wrap-Up has brought us to the champions, and for the third consecutive year it is Chip Ganassi Racing. For the third consecutive year, it is Álex Palou responsible for the crown. This time it is after an all-time great season. We always knew Palou was great. The year 2025 will be forever tied to the astonishing ability of Palou the way we tie 1964 to A.J. Foyt, 1969 to Mario Andretti and 1994 to Al Unser, Jr. and Team Penske. It has been six years with Palou, and we are just getting started.

Álex Palou
What else can be said? We went into this year fully expecting Palou to be the man to beat and difficult to topple at that. It is not surprising Palou won it all, but it was remarkable to see how he won this championship. We thought we had seen his best in 2023, but this year fully blew that out of the water.

What objectively was his best race?
Palou won eight times. No driver had won eight races in a season since 2007 with Sébastien Bourdais. For Palou, he opened with consecutive victories at St. Petersburg and Thermal Club. Then he was second at Long Beach. He followed that with victories at Barber Motorsports Park, the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, and the greatest of them all, the Indianapolis 500. 

Over the final 11 races, he won only a measly three times: Road America, the second Iowa race and Laguna Seca..

What subjectively was his best race?
Álex Palou needed an Indianapolis 500 victory. At least, he was going to need one. It was best to get it out of the way now. Three championships and about a dozen victories is a good career for a driver through five seasons and at 28 years of age, but the Indianapolis 500 question is not one you want to carry into your 30s. That gives you a decade to give you one before your 40s. If you don't get it by then, you likely never will. 

All the champions before him had one. Josef Newgarden had won consecutive "500s." Scott Dixon has one from over a decade ago. Will Power has one. Simon Pagenaud has one. Palou was the only champion since reunification without an Indianapolis 500 victory, and none of his title-less contemporaries who we see as the best in the series had won one yet either. Patricio O'Ward had come close. Colton Herta had never factored. For Palou, an Indianapolis 500 could get him everything before any of his rivals had anything. 

This is all window-dressing, setting the scene for the story and the importance of this victory. It has nothing to do with the drive itself. 

Truthfully, Palou winning at Indianapolis might not have been one of his three most impressive victories of the season. He had to chase down O'Ward at Thermal Club. He smacked down the field at Barber. At Road America, he pedaled the car in a way only few can. Seven million people do not tune in for those races. 

It was meant to be. Palou didn't have to punish the competition with 185 of 200 laps led. He didn't have to be leading the field for the entire race. All he had to do, all he ever has to do, is remain in the picture, and there he was in the top five. There he was as pit cycles came and went and cautions mixed up strategy. He methodically made up ground, and when it came time for the run to home, he was second with Marcus Ericsson ahead. 

Ericsson has a swift set of hands at the Speedway, but Palou is the best IndyCar has, one of the best IndyCar has ever seen. He didn't wait to make his move. Palou took the lead with a late pass into turn one with 14 laps to go. If anyone was going to beat him, they would have to pass him, and he had all the confidence in the world that no one was going to be able to do that. 

What objectively was his worst race?
It was seven days after his Indianapolis 500 triumph when David Malukas botched braking into turn one at Detroit and pushed Palou into the barriers, ending a top ten day and what could have been a top five finish. Palou was classified in 25th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It is Detroit, and it wasn't his fault. The only other race where Palou didn't factor was Toronto where he was caught in the pit cycles and was shuffled back to 12th, never really contending for more. Toronto was the only other race he finished outside the top ten. 

Everyone thought the title fight was on after Toronto, especially since O'Ward won the race. Then Palou slapped the field silly on the way to victory at Laguna Seca, and then he clinched the title the race after that in Portland. 

Álex Palou's 2025 Statistics
Championship Position: 1st (711 points)
Wins: 8
Podiums: 13
Top Fives: 14
Top Tens: 15
Laps Led: 778
Poles: 6
Fast Sixes: 11
Fast Twelves: 12
Average Start: 33.352
Average Finish: 4.0588

Scott Dixon
It is Scott Dixon. How do you think his season went? He was at the front. He rarely did anything wrong. The results were normally positive, but we did not see Dixon be a strong presence and show up as a driver to beat on a regular basis. He was there but he was not the man to beat.

What objectively was his best race?
Scott Dixon did win a race in 2025, but it came in a race his teammate dominated. Álex Palou looked set to conquer Mid-Ohio in convincing fashion. Then Palou ran wide in turn nine and went off track. This allowed Dixon to slip through with six laps to go and take an unexpected victory.

What subjectively was his best race?
Dixon probably should have won at St. Petersburg. He was leading after everyone had cycled through their alternate tire stint. However, Dixon had no radio communication to his team and was unsure when to make his final pit stop, running until the fuel reserve light came on.

This forced Dixon to run long before his final stop, which allowed Palou to cycle to the lead after the pit cycle was through. Dixon still finished second when most drivers likely would have suffered dearly trying to manage strategy on their own. It was incredible he finished second even if it felt like it should have been one spot better. 

What objectively was his worst race?
A brake caliber issue forced an extra long pit stop for the repair during the Indianapolis 500. The change comes as the race is about to restart after a caution. Dixon lost three laps and never made any of those back, finishing 20th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It is Indianapolis. Dixon finished 12th or better in every other race. He had another damn good season.

Scott Dixon's 2025 Statistics
Championship Position: 3rd (452 points)
Wins: 1
Podiums: 3
Top Fives: 6
Top Tens: 12
Laps Led: 91
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 7
Average Start: 12.647
Average Finish: 8.2941

Kyffin Simpson
For a sophomore season while teamed with two of the greatest drivers in IndyCar history, it was going to be hard to be impressed with whatever Simpson accomplished. However, there were a handful of races where Simpson clearly made a big step from his rookie year. Though I don't think anyone will be mistaking him for one of his teammates anytime soon.

What objectively was his best race?
Starting on the alternate tire and using an alternate strategy, Simpson was able to jump from 13th to third at Toronto. A long middle stint, 42 laps to be exact, allowed him to pull off an impressive result.

What subjectively was his best race?
It sounds odd to say a tenth at Mid-Ohio was Simpson's best result when he had a third at Toronto, he was fourth at Nashville, and a fifth at Detroit, but Simpson had pure pace to challenge for the podium at Mid-Ohio. Unfortunately, Simpson stalled on his final stop. Then he hit one of Rinus VeeKay's pit crew members. This led to a drive-through penalty, but Simpson drove back into the top ten despite the punishment. 

It could have been much better, but Simpson drove sensationally well to salvage a respectable result. 

What objectively was his worst race?
Twice was Simpson classified 27th. At the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Simpson's car would not start on the grid, and he was unable to participate, leaving him classified in 27th. At Laguna Seca, Simpson mistimed his braking into turn five and plowed into Felix Rosenqvist on the opening lap. Simpson's race was over, and he had a six-grid spot penalty in the next race at Portland for his action.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Laguna Seca was a bad error, and it was all on him. Simpson didn't make many errors in 2025. This one stands above all of them.

Kyffin Simpson's 2025 Statistics
Championship Position: 17th (293 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 3
Top Tens: 6
Laps Led: 6
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 4
Average Start: 16.235
Average Finish: 15.176

An Early Look Ahead
It is Chip Ganassi Racing. They will be fine. They are probably going to win the championship again. I don't know if there is any reason to waste your time and write about 500 to 800 words about the outlook for Chip Ganassi Racing's 2026 season. 

It is simple: They are going to win, they are going to win a handful of times, maybe even score two handfuls of victories, and Álex Palou will likely have a fifth championship to his name. If he doesn't, he will probably still be one of the top three drivers in the season and he will likely lose to a Team Penske driver, Patricio O'Ward, or maybe Scott Dixon is the one to knock off his teammate. 

Could 2026 be the year Dixon falls off? Maybe. Could 2026 be another year where Dixon wins once, has a half-dozen top five finishes and 14 top ten finishes? Probably. There is nothing to suggest the former is imminent. We know nothing lasts forever. Dixon could wake up tomorrow and decide he has one more year in him. We will cross that bridge when we get there. 

As for Simpson, just have fun kid. Go see if you can crack the top fifteen in the championship. We are not expecting much more than that.

I end with this: It is hard to imagine Palou matching or exceeding this season. There is a reason why there have only been four occasions where a driver has won nine races and it had been nearly two decades since someone won eight times. This was a special season. We might not see it for another two decades. Palou isn't going anywhere, and he isn't even 30 years old, but I don't think we are going to see him threaten to win ten races every season for the next ten years. He will be like every other great driver before him.

A.J. Foyt didn't win a half-dozen races every season. Neither did Mario Andretti, Al Unser, Bobby Unser, Rick Mears, Johnny Rutherford, Michael Andretti, Al Unser, Jr., Alex Zanardi, Dario Franchitti, Scott Dixon and Will Power. 

Every driver has this period of sheer control, but they always come down to earth. They still might be the best, but they will not look untouchable forever. 

However, nothing suggests Palou is going to be coming down anytime soon.



Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Is Chip Ganassi Racing the Greatest Team in IndyCar History?

It has likely been a modest championship celebration at the Chip Ganassi Racing shop in the aftermath of Álex Palou clinching his fourth IndyCar championship with two races remaining. Everyone is happy, but there are still two races to go. The focus will be winning those races. A larger celebration can follow in September when there will be at least six full months until the next race. 

While partying responsibly and noting what Palou's title means for the his legacy amongst the greatest drivers of all-time, it has quietly been ignored that this is Chip Ganassi Racing's 17th championship as a team, and that is level with Team Penske for the most all-time. 

For the last 20 or 25 years, we have been comparing Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing. Penske has long been the standard in American open-wheel racing. It has done everything with the utmost attention to detail. It is not only the best team on the track but the best operating team off the track, "Penske Perfect" if you will. 

As we moved deeper into the 21st century, Chip Ganassi Racing started to take the fight to Penske. It soon became clear every championship came down to who would be better, Ganassi or Penske? After all, the two teams have combined to win the last 13 championships and 17 of the last 18. We go into every IndyCar season asking who will be champion, but inside we know it will be one of five or six drivers. 

The records Team Penske had set felt further out of reach. After all, Team Penske has been competing in IndyCar for over 50 years. The numbers are staggering. From race victories to pole positions, they are numbers no other team is truly close to. Most organizations are barely over a decade old. Almost a third of the teams only started competing full-time in IndyCar in the last five years. It is hard to hit triple-figures in some of these categories when your organization has competed in fewer than 100 races. 

Team Penske's mark at the top appeared to be safe for a very long time. Except, it appears, in one category. 

We never really acknowledged Chip Ganassi Racing's success on a historical level. We knew Ganassi was winning championships and head and shoulders above most of the competition. It almost became anticipated that on the stage at the end of the season would be Ganassi with Dario Franchitti or Scott Dixon or now Álex Palou. What we didn't realized was what all these Astor Cup presentations meant. We weren't really counting and until this weekend it went largely unnoticed how close Gannasi was to Penske. 

Now they are equal. 

Not only are they equal, but Ganassi has reached 17 championships in a little over half the time it took Penske to hit that mark. This is only Ganassi's 36th season in IndyCar. That still makes it the third-oldest team (hello, Dale Coyne Racing in second), but that means Ganassi has been winning a championship at a rate of nearly one every other year.

Team Penske's 17th championship came only three years ago in what was the organization's 55th season competing in IndyCar. 

When it comes to championship, not only are the organizations level, but Ganassi is winning them at a much faster rate, and it does not appear likely the Ganassi organization will be slowing down anytime soon. 

Anytime you see a record for most championships matched or surpassed, the question becomes about who is the greatest team. It is easy to look at who has the most champions and declare that is the team that is best. 

Last year, the Boston Celtics surpassed the Los Angeles Lakers for most NBA championships with 18, a swing in the favor for the folks from Bean Town against their long-time, cross-country foes. 

This past May, Liverpool won the Premier League title, its 20th time winning the championship in England's top league, moving it into a tie all-time with Manchester United. Soccer is a little more nuanced as there are the domestic competitions in each country as well as continental competitions, and Liverpool has been the European champions six times, more than any other English club.

American football is a little messy as the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots are tied for the most Super Bowl championships (six), but when you consider the entire 100-plus year history of the NFL, the Green Bay Packers have the most championships (13). Bragging rights exist for both.

Motorsports is different, the same way soccer differs from basketball and both differ from American football. Championships matter, but there are races within championships and those totals matter. Then there are more prestigious races and victories in those carry more weight than 10 or 20 victories in lesser celebrated races, and in some cases those prestigious race victories are seen as greater than a championship. This is the case for multiple disciplines of motorsports, IndyCar include. 

Is Chip Ganassi Racing the greatest team in IndyCar history? 

It is level on championships with Team Penske, but with 17 titles in 36 seasons versus Penske's 17 in 58 seasons, it understandable to give Ganassi the edge in that department. 

The next thing people look at in IndyCar is Indianapolis 500s. Many look at that before championships, but in this context, we look at it second. Team Penske is the all-time leader and by far the all-time leader. Penske has won the race 20 times since its first attempt in 1969, though Penske has only competed in the race 51 times thanks to failing to qualify in 1995 and then the split from 1996 to 2000. 

Ganassi is pretty far off Penske in this case. Ganassi picked up its sixth Indianapolis 500 victory this past May with Palou, it was Ganassi’s 32nd year competing in the race. Even if you account for the almost two-decade difference, Penske is still ahead. Penske had 14 Indianapolis 500 victories in its first 32 Indianapolis 500s. Give a point to Penske. 

What about total race victories? 

Longevity will give Team Penske the edge. It has the most IndyCar victories with 245 after Will Power's triumph at Portland this past weekend. However, Chip Ganassi Racing is likely a little closer than you realize. With nine victories this season, Chip Ganassi Racing is exactly 100 victories behind Team Penske. It has won 145 times, comfortably in second as third is the defunct Newman-Haas Racing on 107. Andretti Global is the next closest on 77. 

When it comes to winning percentage, Penske has won 28.128% of its 871 races contested. Ganassi has won 23.237% of its 624 races contested.

If there is one last thing to consider it is since reunification in 2008, when there was finally one IndyCar series and everyone was back together competing on the same terms. In those 18 seasons, Chip Ganassi Racing has won 12 championship. Team Penske has won five. Andretti Global and Ryan Hunter-Reay are the outlier. 

Since reunification, three different Ganassi drivers have won at least three championships. Scott Dixon has won five, Álex Palou has now won four, including three consecutive, and Dario Franchitti won three consecutive championships. Penske's five titles have come from three different drivers. Josef Newgarden and Will Power each won it twice. Simon Pagenaud won it once. 

Ganassi has now won six of the last eight championships. Penske's last six championships stretch back to 2006. The only stretch that rivals what Ganassi has done is what Penske did almost 50 years ago. It won six championship in seven years over 1977 to 1983, which spanned the USAC-CART split. Penske would win seven of nine championships if you extend that period to 1985, and it would win eight of 12 titles from 1977 to 1988. 

There is a bit of a difference in those time periods, as the championships have changed from oval-heavy series to road/street course-heavy series and teams are now all using the same chassis while Penske was building its own chassis for most of those championship seasons and sometimes competing against three or four or five different chassis manufacturers. 

There doesn't have to be one right answer. The fate of humanity is not relying on us coming to a consensus on what is the greatest team in IndyCar history. It is right to acknowledge how great these two organizations have been, and how each stand out in their own greatness. At this moment, Chip Ganassi Racing has gone on a run that cannot be ignored and has placed itself at the top, which we long assumed would only have one inhabitant for a very long time.


Thursday, February 20, 2025

2025 IndyCar Team Preview: Chip Ganassi Racing

And we have made it. The final IndyCar team preview comes ten days before the first race commences from St. Petersburg. We end with the team that ended up on top in 2024. Chip Ganassi Racing took its fourth championship in five seasons. It was not the most dominating season for the team, but it was still consistent. 

Ganassi's makeup is a bit different this season as the charter agreement limits a team to three entries. Ganassi has contracted back to three cars, but despite being 40% smaller, the organization has not lost any strength.

At First Glance... Why should we expect anything different?
Ganassi has Scott Dixon and Álex Palou. Does it need anything else? 

These two drivers have combined to win four of the last five championships and five of the last seven championships. Palou continues to be remarkably consistent. Even in a season where he was not as clean as he was in his near-flawless 2023 season, he still won the championship with comfort. Dixon remains a reliable driver that will not put the car in harm's way nor will he be off his game for long. More times than not, Dixon can take a good car and make it great. 

Losing two teammates isn't going to hurt this duo. Kyffin Simpson is taking up space but not hindering these two champions. Dixon and Palou are going to run at the front and be two of the drivers to beat. 

We have seen Dixon win championships with one teammate, two teammates and three teammates. He has won championships surrounded by veterans and surrounded by inexperience. Palou won in his second season in IndyCar, his first year with a new organization. He has regularly defeated one of the best drivers in IndyCar history in equal equipment. He had a season where he never finished worse than eighth, and he did not let the introduction of hybrid systems slow him down. 

Why should we expect anything different than what we have seen for the last half-decade?

Ganassi is as good as Team Penske on every historic level, Ganassi is only about a 25-year younger team. We are not going to see Chip Ganassi Racing disappear due to some slight change. Everything has remained the same. Chassis, engine, tires, aero regulations, fuel, oxygen levels in the atmosphere. If everything is the same, expect the same result, and that is Chip Ganassi Racing being a force.

Even if Team Penske is rather clinical and ends up winning the championship, it will likely come after an admirable fight from Chip Ganassi Racing where it combines to win at least four or five races and it will still have two drivers in the top five of the championship. 

The Ganassi organization has won a race in 20 consecutive seasons. It is a stalwart in IndyCar. The earth is not going to fall out from underneath them. A bad season for Ganassi would be a significantly good season to eight of the other teams in IndyCar. 

A championship might go elsewhere, but whoever wins it will have to take it from the Ganassi group.

2024 Chip Ganassi Racing Review
Wins: 4 (Long Beach, Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Detroit, Laguna Seca)
Poles: 3 (Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Laguna Seca, Mid-Ohio)
Championship Finishes: 1st (Álex Palou), 6th (Scott Dixon), 14th (Marcus Armstrong), 16th (Linus Lundqvist), 21st (Kyffin Simpson)

Kyffin Simpson - #8 Journie Rewards Honda
Numbers to Remember:
3: Top fifteen finishes in the first four races last season

2: Top fifteen finishes in the final 13 races last season

4: Top twenty starts last season

What does a championship season look like for him?
There was a running joke over some of these early predictions that the only way the likes of Devlin DeFrancesco or Sting Ray Robb could win the IndyCar championship would be if something catastrophic happened, and it whittled the IndyCar championship down to three cars involving those two and then Kyffin Simpson. 

This remains true for Simpson. Simpson can with the championship if it is a three-car championship and being the Chip Ganassi Racing driver is enough to defeat a Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing driver and a Juncos Hollinger Racing driver. 

Let's face it, driving for Ganassi alone should be enough to put Simpson over the top of the other two drivers. Imagine if the entire Ganassi staff was focused on one car? Advantage Simpson in such a scenario.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
It wasn't the worst rookie season from Simpson in 2024. Some of his best results did come from others stumbling around him, but he was putting the car in a spot to finish in the top fifteen. For a good portion of the season, Simpson was not making mistakes and not getting into accidents. He did have a spell where he struggled and went over the limit to his detriment.  

Simpson was 21st in the drivers' championship, but his points total was only good enough for 25th in the entrants' championship. With two fewer Ganassi cars in house and a shuffling of crew, Simpson should do a little better, but a little will not look like much. 

A top ten finish or two would be a great gain. I don't think those finish will come based on speed. Those will come from misfortune of others while Simpson is having a good day. Cracking the top twenty should be the goal because he is driving for Chip Ganassi Racing and he will definitely have two teammates in the top ten of the championship and likely two teammates in the top five of the championship.

Scott Dixon - #9 PNC Bank Honda
Numbers to Remember:
6: Starts away from the all-time IndyCar record (currently on 402 starts)

297: Career top ten finishes

6,821: Career laps led

What does a championship season look like for him?
Dixon has done it six times. There is no script you can write for a Dixon championship season that does not already exist. Any fantasy you could write does not quite live up to what Dixon has done already. To season dominance, comeback titles and tiebreakers, Dixon has covered pretty much every possible story. 

Let's use history then. 

In Dixon's six championship seasons, he has done the following...

On average, had his first victory by the fourth race of the season...

Had his first podium finish by the third race of the season...

Won 3.833 races per season...

Stood on the podium 7.667 times...

Finished in the top five 10.333 times...

Finished in the top ten 12.833 times...

Scored 62.696% of the maximum points.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
With Dixon turning 45 years old this season, our attention is keen for any signs of slowing down. It has been anticipated, but every time we think it is near, Dixon flips the switch and shows he still has it. 

What has cost Dixon the last few seasons is one or two fluky results that send him down the championship.

Last season, he had the car fail while on the parade laps at Mid-Ohio and then was taken out on lap one at Portland. 

His only finish outside the top ten in 2023 was at Long Beach when contact with Patricio O'Ward took him out. In 2022, a pit lane speeding violation on his final pit stop took him from first in the Indianapolis 500 to 21st, his worst finish of the season, and in 2021 at Indianapolis, Dixon ran out of fuel coming to pit lane while leading on his second pit stop and it forced him to lose a lap on pit lane.

We haven't seen the results drop off because the pace has dropped off. Dixon's season comes down to a few bad days. However, we haven't seen him be the force that controls the championship either in five seasons. His is still doing better than most, but he has not consistently been the best the last few seasons. 

A victory or two is the minimum. Five or six podium finishes is the minimum. Eight or nine top five finishes is the minimum. That will put Dixon at least sixth in the championship. If he does better than the minimum in any of those categories it will raise his championship position.

Álex Palou - #10 DHL Honda
Numbers to Remember:
5: Drivers with four championships in IndyCar history

3: Drivers who have won three consecutive championships

93.919: Percentage of laps completed in his IndyCar career (10,241/10,904)

What does a championship season look like for him?
In the same vain, Palou has won three championships, half of Dixon's total, but enough to have a read on how Palou pulls out the ultimate prize. Palou has also won three titles in the last four seasons. Not much has changed between 2021 and now. The recipe that worked last year and the year before that and in 2021 will likely work this year as well. 

In Palou's three championship seasons, he has...

Taken 3.333 races for his first victory...

Took 1.667 races for his first podium finish...

Won 3.333 races per season...

Stood on the podium 7.667 times...

Finished in the top five 12.333 times...

Finished in the top ten 14 times...

Scored 62.913% of maximum points.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
Palou has won consecutive championships and three titles in four seasons. It is realistic to expect a championship because we need to see someone beat Palou, and no one has been able to consistently do that. 

The one championship Palou did not win was the year Will Power started with five consecutive top five finishes, Palou did not win until the season finale, and there was only one repeat winner in the first eight races. 

That one slow start appears to be the outlier, and even then it wasn't that slow as Palou had three podium finishes in the first four races that season.

In each of his three championships, Palou won one of the first five races, had at least two podium finishes in the first five races and had at least three top five finishes in the first five races. Last year, Palou opened with five consecutive top five finishes, eight top five finishes in the first nine races, and 13 top five finishes in the first 15 races. If you have 13 top five finishes in the first 15 races, you have had a great season. 

Everything is on the table for Palou. This season could be better than last season. He only won twice last year with five podium finishes. Both those totals could double. If that is the case, we will be witnessing a little more IndyCar history.

The 2025 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 2 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage of the season opener will begin at noon Eastern Time.


Friday, November 1, 2024

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Chip Ganassi Racing's 2024 Season

We close our IndyCar Wrap-Ups with the champions, and for the second consecutive season it is Chip Ganassi Racing. Álex Palou successfully defended his title, and won his third championship in four seasons. For Ganassi, that makes its four titles in five seasons. While running five cars with two rookies and a sophomore didn't produce the most dominant seasons ever seen, Ganassi did not fall behind despite the inexperience. Its veterans still led the team ahead of the rest.

Álex Palou
It was always going to be hard to match his 2023 season, but Palou did not need to finish eighth or better in every race to claim another championship. The consistency remained insurmountable to the rest of the IndyCar field. While the door was left open as we saw Palou was human, no driver could overcome the methodically nature in which Palou wins championships. 

What objectively was his best race?
Palou won twice, the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and at Laguna Seca. He also on the exhibition race at The Thermal Club outside of Palm Springs, California, which paid $500,000 to the winner.

What subjectively was his best race?
Palou drove away with Laguna Seca. The Catalan driver stayed out under the Luca Ghiotto caution, which allowed him to drive flat out from those who did stop on lap 60. Palou opened a gap as others saved, and it allowed him to control a race that was not his in the early stages. He did have to hold on during some late restarts, but this race played into his favor and the competition gifted him one through conservative strategy.

What objectively was his worst race?
In the first Iowa race, Palou spun in the middle of the front straightaway somewhat inexplicably, and he finished 23rd. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
It proved not to be dire to his championship, but the second Milwaukee race could not have resulted in much worse after Palou's car died on the pace laps. With a chance of clinching the title early for a second consecutive season, Palou looked set on making Nashville a formality. When his car was unable to take the green flag, it appeared Palou could be heading to the Music City fighting from behind.

It was only a battery issue, but it still cost him precious laps. However, Palou plugged along and with a high attrition rate, plus Will Power spinning on his own while in the running for at least a podium position, 19th at Milwaukee turned out to be not so bad a result, and Palou maintained a healthy points lead into the finale.

Álex Palou's 2024 Statistics
Championship Position: 1st (544 points)
Wins: 2
Podiums: 6
Top Fives: 13
Top Tens: 13
Laps Led: 263
Poles: 3
Fast Sixes: 6
Fast Twelves: 7
Average Start: 8.411
Average Finish: 6.5294

Scott Dixon
In the later stages of his IndyCar career, Dixon may have found the one driver that can beat him at his own game. Not entirely of course, as fuel mileage continues to be the New Zealander's specialty, but the sheer unshakability of Palou's form is something we had only seen from Dixon, especially at this rate. As great as he has been, we have known Dixon is human this entire time. He looked more human this year than in others.

What objectively was his best race?
Dixon was the first driver to two victories this season, and they were both street races. He won at Long Beach and Detroit.

What subjectively was his best race?
Long Beach became another race of legend on what is an already long list for Dixon. Stretching his fuel to 34 laps over each of the final two stints, Dixon pulled off a stunning drive from eighth on the grid to win this race despite having Josef Newgarden, Colton Herta and Álex Palou all charging him down in the closing laps. 

Dixon never lost his cool and kept his calculated nature on point, not pushing too much to run out of fuel, but pushing enough to keep the competition at bay. Dixon wasn't the only one to use this strategy, but he finished over 15 seconds ahead of Will Power doing the same thing, and Power was ahead of Dixon after the first round of pit stops.

What objectively was his worst race?
Dixon did not complete a lap at Portland after contact with Pietro Fittipaldi sent Dixon into the barrier on the outside of turn eight. This came after Dixon went off course battling Kyle Kirkwood in turn seven. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
Portland was bad, but Mid-Ohio was worse because Dixon had the foreshadowing electrical issues that we saw trip up Palou at Milwaukee. Dixon's car died on the pace laps and instead of trying to win from 13th in the debut hybrid race, Dixon lost 20 laps and pretty much ran a 40-lap test session to claim 27th. This result signaled the downfall for his season. After six top ten finishes in the first eight races, Dixon would finish outside the top ten in four of the final nine races including two results outside the top 25.

Scott Dixon's 2024 Statistics
Championship Position: 6th (456 points)
Wins: 2
Podiums: 5
Top Fives: 8
Top Tens: 11
Laps Led: 98
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 8
Average Start: 11.352
Average Finish: 9.6471

Marcus Armstrong
The reigning Rookie of the Year was back for something new in 2024: A full season! Armstrong got to run all the ovals in combination with the road and street courses he was familiar with. There were some growing pains as Armstrong had a sophomore slump of sorts. He made mistakes at some unfortunate times, but he showed good pace and kept up with his senior teammates. 

What objectively was his best race?
Armstrong picked up his first career podium finish in Detroit. Running the same strategy as his teammate and fellow countryman Dixon, Armstrong clung to a podium result with a 44-lap stint to close the race. He was able to hold off Kyle Kirkwood, but Armstrong ran out of fuel on the cool down lap. 

What subjectively was his best race?
Detroit deserves strong consideration for being Armstrong's best race, but he also held his own in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis when the two senior Ganassi cars were quick. e started eighth while Palou was on pole position and Dixon was starting sixth. Armstrong ran with Dixon the entire race and both drivers went forward. This ended up being a triple top five day for Ganassi with Palou winning while Dixon was fourth and Armstrong was fifth.

What objectively was his worst race?
Armstrong lost his engine only six laps into the Indianapolis 500. It wasn't even six laps in anger. The caution came out after the first turn accident with Tom Blomqvist, Pietro Fittipaldi and Marcus Ericsson. Armstrong lost his engine on a caution lap, an awful way for his first Indianapolis 500 to end after a lengthy rain delay. With three cars out, at least he was 30th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Armstrong had two races where he started third this season. In both races, Armstrong ran over the pole-sitter, ending his race before it started and leaving him 26th in the final classification. 

The first one was Road America, where Armstrong punted his teammate Linus Lundqvist from pole position in the opening corner of the race. This didn't end Armstrong's race, but it got him a penalty. The mechanical issues ended his race. The next one was the second Milwaukee race where Armstrong had Lundqvist plow into the back of him when the start was waved off and this sent Armstrong into Josef Newgarden in pole position. 

Milwaukee was less his fault than Road America. Road America was likely worse of the two, but on two occasions it looked like Armstrong was poised to have a great day from a great starting position, and both times, he had trouble before he could complete a corner. 

Marcus Armstrong's 2024 Statistics
Championship Position: 14th (298 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 4
Top Tens: 8
Laps Led: 4
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 3
Fast Twelves: 8
Average Start: 11.0588
Average Finish: 14.529

Linus Lundqvist
After making his IndyCar debut last year as a substitute, Lundqvist was back for a full season with Chip Ganassi Racing. The Swede had sparks of success, but he also stumbled along the way. For portions of the season, he was rather hidden in the field, but he did have a few standout performances against a splintered rookie class.

What objectively was his best race?
Lundqvist had two third-place finishes this season. The first one was at Barber Motorsports Park and the second one was at Gateway Motorsports Park. Maybe Lundqvist has a thing for "motorsports parks."

What subjectively was his best race?
I give the edge to Barber over Gateway because Gateway saw Lundqvist really benefit from other cars getting knocked out of the race. It was still a good run, but he probably should have been fifth or sixth. At Barber, Lundqvist had to stretch his fuel 34 laps while other quicker cars were around him and there was a late restart. Strategy gave him track position from 19th on the grid, but he pulled it off in a intense environment. 

What objectively was his worst race?
Lundqvist's first Indianapolis 500 ended after 27 laps when his car walked up the track from the inside of a four-wide situation in turn one. Somehow, he did not collect any other cars. Lundqvist did all he could to save it, but he slapped the barrier when he could not keep it straight on the sixth attempt. This placed him 28th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It might sound harsh because it wasn't his fault, but Road America was a massive disappointment. Lundqvist couldn't control being hit from behind, but for your maiden pole position to be see you spun in the first turn is deflating. Lundqvist did a good job recovering to finish 12th, but there is no silver lining when you are starting on pole position.

Linus Lundqvist's 2024 Statistics
Championship Position: 16th (179 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 2
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 4
Laps Led: 27
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 2
Average Start: 14.941
Average Finish: 15.353

Kyffin Simpson
Simpson came into the IndyCar season with low expectations after a rather underwhelming two seasons in Indy Lights. His saving grace was the sports car success he had along side his open-wheel form. This was never going to be a year where Simpson was challenging Palou and Dixon for best in the team. He had some bad days, but there more impressive days than complete disasters. 

What objectively was his best race?
Simpson's best result in the record book is 12th at St. Petersburg, which was actually 14th on the road, but improved to 12th after Josef Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin were disqualified for the push-to-pass manipulation that was found over six weeks after the race.

What subjectively was his best race?
There are two contenders here, and both were 14th-place results. 

Barber Motorsports Park, where Simpson drove a smart race and climbed from 23rd to 14th. 

The first Iowa race, where Simpson didn't do much wrong and went from 27th to 14th. 

No one did anything all that impressive at Iowa. It was pretty much came down to smart strategy, good pit stops and not losing ground on restarts. Simpson was ahead of Dixon and Josef Newgarden at Barber. Neither of those drivers had their best days, but they didn't have accidents or broken cars. They were just slow. Simpson wasn't blisteringly quick either, but he was better on this day than two of IndyCar's best.

What objectively was his worst race?
Simpson was spun off course on lap six at Road America after contact with Christian Rasmussen. It was entirely on Rasmussen and Simpson was hard done by such a turn of events. This placed Simpson in 27th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Simpson did not tear up much equipment this season. Laguna Seca was not good when he spun on his own in turn five and spun into the path of Graham Rahal. This left him in 23rd. He also had a lazy spin on his own at Gateway that left him to finish 25th as well. He slapped the wall in turn eight at Toronto. He didn't make minor errors this season, but he made a few as you would expect any rookie would.

Kyffin Simpson's 2024 Statistics
Championship Position: 21st (182 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 3
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 22.4705
Average Finish: 19.471

An Early Look Ahead
Palou and Dixon will continue, and we found out tw days ago Kyffin Simpson will continue with the team in the #8 Honda.

The third car is irrelevant to the team's success. Palou and Dixon are fine. Considering the form we have seen, we aren't going to see Ganassi fall off. Palou will continue to be a race winner and be running at the front. Even a few off days are not enough to throw Palou off championship pace. Dixon continues to pull out good results, but there are a few worrying signs from Dixon. 

In the final six races, Dixon's best starting position was ninth. He started outside the top fifteen in three of those races. His average starting position of 11.352 was the third-worst in his career. He hasn't started on the front row in 32 consecutive races. Five of his last six victories have been from starting positions outside the top five. Dixon has still been getting good results, but we aren't seeing Dixon as the man to beat on a regular basis. You could make the argument his last five victories have all come down to strategy and not speed. You could say it is six straight when you consider how he won at Nashville in 2022. Dixon is running better than most, but he has been beatable.

It doesn't help when your teammate is Palou. Palou makes everyone look pedestrian. In 2023, Dixon was in the top ten of every race but one. If it wasn't for Palou, Dixon would have controlled that championship. Ganassi still has the best 1-2 punch in IndyCar. 

The charter rules are forcing Ganassi to downsize to three cars. You must wonder what Ganassi could do if it put three serious drivers in its seats. Simpson could improve next year but he was 69 points off 18th. He was 115 points outside the top fifteen and 184 points behind tenth. Simpson only scored 182 points last year. He would need more than double his output to be in the consideration for the top ten. Simpson turned 20 years old last month, but how long a leash does he get considering how far he has to go? Even the richest sons have a limit. 

Armstrong was the best of the rest when it comes to the Ganassi drivers in 2024. He could be capable of winning races, but Ganassi could have hired Alexander Rossi, a past winner. Ganassi could have hired Théo Pourchaire, arguably the best rookie from the 2024 season. Callum Ilott was sitting out there basically the entire year. Ganassi could have done what it was once known for and hire one of the top drivers from Europe not in Formula One. It tested 2022 Formula Two champion Felipe Drugovich at Barber Motorsports Park in September. If you are talking about winners, there are better ones out there, and Ganassi allegedly likes them. 

Even with a weak third driver, Ganassi will remain a top team. It has won four of the last five championships. With Palou and Dixon still in the line up, you cannot write off another one being added in 2025.


Friday, February 23, 2024

2024 IndyCar Team Preview: Chip Ganassi Racing

We have reached the end of our 2024 IndyCar team previews, and with 16 days to spare from the St. Petersburg season opener. The only team that remains is the defending champions. Chip Ganassi Racing is coming off a historic season, one where a Ganassi driver locked up the championship with races in hand for the first time in over 15 years. However, it wasn't just one driver that made a splash for Ganassi. It was a triumvirate that carried Ganassi in 2023, but one of those drivers is gone and the lineup has been shaken up, though the big guns remain.

At First Glance... How does Ganassi follow up 2023?
It wasn't just Álex Palou's championship that Ganassi has to be proud about from 2023. It was a total team beat down in IndyCar. 

Nine victories was the most for Ganassi since 2009. Ganassi had three top ten finishers in every race last season. It had multiple top five finishers in 11 races. The team went 1-2-6 in the championship, and it claimed rookie of the year with a driver that didn't contest any of the oval races. Last year, I wrote that Ganassi was ready to win now, and it did. Ganassi was undoubtedly the best team in 2023 and enters 2024 as the team to beat. 

All of those marks will be tough to match. Everyone will raise their game to try and usurp Ganassi from the top spot. Team Penske will look to continue its oval dominance while improving on road and street courses. Arrow McLaren had about five races it felt it should have won last year, won none, and a number of those went the team of Ganassi. Andretti Global is looking to reclaim former glory and it will do it with a former Ganassi driver. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing looks to build upon what it accomplished in 2023 despite plenty of adversity. 

The road only becomes tougher for Ganassi, and the lineup has changed. Palou is still there. Scott Dixon is still there. The third bullet is gone. Marcus Ericsson has moved to Andretti. Ericsson wasn't some average driver. He had 47 top ten finishes in 64 starts with the team over four seasons. That is 73.4375%. He was sixth in the championship in three consecutive seasons. Oh, and he won an Indianapolis 500. Those are numbers that will be daunting to duplicate. 

Ganassi has hope primarily spread over two drivers. Marcus Armstrong will be full-time after running all the road andstreet course races in 2023. Linus Lundqvist replaces his fellow Swede Ericsson in the #8 Honda after Lundqvist made three starts last season substituting for the injured Simon Pagenaud. These are two drivers that showed promise last season. Filling the absence of Ericsson and trying to keep up with Palou and Dixon will test the ability of both. 

Ganassi will win races. With its top two drivers, it will likely have at least one driver contending for the championship, but this team has taken a significant swing into the youth, especially when you include the 19-year-old Kyffin Simpson in a fifth Ganassi entry. This is a team still looking to win now, but has an eye on the future. 

Considering the changes in the team, it will likely not be as good as last year, but it should still be a competitive season for the Ganassi gang.

2023 Chip Ganassi Racing Review
Wins: 9 (St. Petersburg, Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Detroit, Road America, Mid-Ohio, August IMS road course race, Gateway, Portland, Laguna Seca)
Poles: 2 (Indianapolis 500, Detroit)
Championship Finishes: 1st (Álex Palou), 2nd (Scott Dixon), 6th (Marcus Ericsson), 20th (Marcus Armstrong), 29th (Takuma Sato)

Kyffin Simpson - #4 Journie Rewards Honda
Numbers to Remember:
10.8461: Average finish in 13 Indy Lights starts last year.

17.8461: Average number of starters in the 13 Indy Lights races Simpson ran last year.

3.5714: Average finish in 14 LMP2 starts over IMSA, European Le Mans Series and Asian Le Mans Series in 2023.

What does a championship season look like for him?
IndyCar falls on major financial hardship that strikes the teams immediately and in a way to raise funds the series switch to LMP2 cars with three-driver pro-am lineups. Simpson has a familiar pair of drivers drafted in and he is able to continue his LMP2 success but this time in IndyCar and takes another championship.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
Of all the drivers competing in IndyCar this season, Simpson has been the hardest to project. 

Based off his Indy Lights results, this shouldn't be a good season. Simpson had a few good races last season, but it was not regular time spent at the front. He went from ninth in the Indy Lights championship in 2022 to tenth in 2023, and he was averaging about a half point fewer per start last season compared to the year before.

However, Simpson has done well in LMP2 competition. It is a multi-driver class, but ELMS is a stout series and all three drivers must be contributing to win. Simpson is also driving for Chip Ganassi Racing. This isn't going to be a cheat code that automatically puts Simpson at the front, but it is a car that is better than over half the grid.

This does feel like too much too soon for Simpson. He is only 19 years old. When you consider how much Sting Ray Robb and Benjamin Pedersen struggled, Simpson will likely race in that territory. However, Ganassi should give him a little more of a boost. It is isn't going to be a difference between eight or ten spots in the championship, but it likely could be worth two to four spots. 

Consider that in Jimmie Johnson's one full IndyCar season he was 21st in the championship with 214 points and he had a fifth and a sixth at Iowa and Texas respectively, and in Johnson's 2022 season when he just ran 12 road/street course race, he scored 201 points, an average of nine points per race with his best finish being 17th. That is the bottom for Simpson to clear. That feels more than likely.

Any top ten finishes will be impressive. He should have a few top fifteen finishes, but there will be days he is firmly in the bottom third of the field.

Linus Lundqvist - #8 American Legion Honda
Numbers to Remember:
9.34375: Average finish for Marcus Ericsson over four seasons in the #8 Chip Ganassi Racing Honda

8: Lundqvist is one of eight Swedish drivers to start an IndyCar race

50: Percentage of Swedish drivers that have started an IndyCar race to have driven for Chip Ganassi Racing once Lundqvist starts his first race with the team

What does a championship season look like for him? 
Lundqvist starts his season better than any of us expect and he is the top Ganassi finisher in the opening round with a podium result. He follows it up with another race as the top Ganassi finisher and on the podium for a second time. What does he do for his third act? Wins at Barber Motorsports Park directly ahead of Scott Dixon to add insult to injury. 

With this start, Lundqvist finds himself out front and everyone is already chasing him. A pair of top ten finishes in Indianapolis with a tough day in Detroit has everyone thinking all the air has been let out of the balloon, but Lundqvist response with a Road America victory and a podium at Laguna Seca. Another top five finish comes at Mid-Ohio.

He has one bad Iowa race, and one Iowa race like Álex Palou had last year where Lundqvist ends up eighth but that is about four spots better than where he ran the entire race. The Swede takes a top five finish at Toronto to head into the Olympic break on a high note.

When competition resumes, it is a top ten at Gateway with a top five in Portland. He is on the podium in one of the Milwaukee races with at least a top ten in the other. Lundqvist finishes the season with an emphatic victory in Nashville to take an improbable championship.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
Somewhere between sixth and 14th in the championship.

That is a wide net, but that is where Ericsson finished in this car the past three seasons and right around where Marcus Armstrong's average points per start (more on that in a moment) would have placed him in the 2023 championship had Armstrong run all the races. 

In his three cameo appearances last year, Lundqvist had some head-turning runs, even if the results didn't go his way, and that was driving for Meyer Shank Racing, which spent the entire 2023 season lost. He was likely the best driver MSR had last season. Instead of driving a car that was barely able to crack the top fifteen with someone else driving it, Lundqvist is now driving a car that has won in each of the last three seasons and was first and second in the last two Indianapolis 500s. 

A respectable season would be about eight top ten finishes, a couple top five runs and ending up around the top ten in the championship. Performing above expectations should plant him solidly in the top ten, but if he has a handful of rookie days it shouldn't nosedive his championship position. 

Scott Dixon - #9 PNC Bank Honda
Numbers to Remember:
14: Consecutive top ten finishes to close out the 2023 season

4: Consecutive podium finishes to close out the 2023 season, the longest podium streak since the 2019 season finale through the first three races of the 2020 season

5.3529: Average finish in 2023, second best in IndyCar

What does a championship season look like for him?
Dixon has won the championship six times before. He has had a handful of other seasons where he was there and just fell short, last year included. We know what Dixon has to do. In this case, it might be his hardest task yet, beating Álex Palou.

Dixon had one of his best seasons in IndyCar last year, it likely wins the championship nine times out of ten, and yet Palou clinched the championship a race early and the Catalan won the title by 78 points over Dixon. 

There was only one race where Dixon finished outside the top ten. Even with that result, his average finish was better than sixth. If you dropped the 27th from the Grand Prix of Long Beach, Dixon's average finish in the other 16 races is fourth! Palou's average finish for the 2023 season was 3.7059, and, in the sake of fairness, if you dropped Palou's worst result as well, it would be 3.4375. 

Dixon didn't do much wrong last year to lose a championship. Palou did that much more to win it.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
Last year was really a tale of two seasons for Dixon. 

In the first 13 races, he had no victories, two podium finishes, he had led only 13 laps and he had yet to be the best Ganassi finisher in a race. 

In the final four races, he won three times, was on the podium for all four events, and he led 192 laps. 

We entered August really thinking 2023 would be the year Dixon did not win a race. He ended up winning three. It should not surprise us, and yet, for the first five months of the season, Dixon didn't look all that close to victory despite having only one finish worse than seventh. 

A realistic season is something between his first 13 races and his final four races. Good runs with a victory or two spread in-between, but not necessarily being the driver controlling the championship. 

Palou has proven to be Dixon's toughest teammate since Dario Franchitti. Dixon can do everything right and that still not be enough. No one dominates forever, and we must remember Palou almost went winless in his season following his first championship in 2022. Like Dixon, Palou is human. 

In 17 of the last 18 seasons Dixon has ended up in the top five of the championship. I think that is where we start. Dixon will be somewhere in the championship top five. Is it first with three victories, eight podium finishes and over 300 laps led or is it fourth with a victory and four trips to the podium, but two untimely retirements? 

Álex Palou - #10 DHL Honda
Numbers to Remember:
9: Victories in 50 starts with Chip Ganassi Racing

24: Podium finishes in 50 starts with Chip Ganassi Racing

42: Top ten finishes in 50 starts with Chip Ganassi Racing

What does a championship season look like for him?
The man has the blueprint. With his first championship, Palou won early and was frequently on the podium even though he had a few down results. A fortunate caution at Portland after an unfortunate caution in the same race saw him swing from losing the title to controlling his destiny in the final two races. 

With his second championship, Palou strangled the competition. He lived in the top five, won three on the spin and four in five races. His worst finish was eighth and nobody could keep up. 

For three seasons, Palou has been one of the most reliable drivers in IndyCar. He does not drive over the car. He has finished 35 of the last 36 races. His lone retirement is when a teammate drove into him. This might be unfathomable for some of you to accept, but Palou is the number one driver at Ganassi at this moment. He was the rabbit no would could catch last year, and he won his championship earlier than anyone since 2007. If he has done it once, he could do it again.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
In all likelihood, Palou will come back down from earth. That doesn't mean he will not be the driver to beat, but it also doesn't mean he will finish in the top eight of every race again. The Catalan driver has 18 consecutive top ten finishes dating back to 2022. That streak will not last forever. 

He is going to win races, he is going to stand on the podium. In all likelihood, his title defense will go deep into the season, if not all the way to the season finale. Palou has had the upper hand on Dixon for the better part of three seasons. If the first step to winning a championship is beating your teammates, Palou has that covered. 

Outside of the Dixon, none of the other Ganassi drivers are a threat to Palou. When it comes to other teams, there are plenty of drivers that could match Palou, but they will have to be near flawless. Palou is not going to give them much to capitalize on. 

A title is realistic. A half-dozen victories are realistic. Another historic season is not out of the question.

Marcus Armstrong - #11 Ridgeline/Root Insurance Honda
Numbers to Remember:
17.833: Average points per start last season, on pace for 13th in the championship last year

5: Top ten finishes in 2023, more than nine full-time drivers

9: Times as the top rookie finishers in 12 starts

What does a championship season look like for him?
A quiet start with a string of top ten finishes to open the season. Nothing earth-shattering but something respectable, and in a few races he is, unexpectedly, the top Ganassi driver. This good start has everyone impressed, which includes the New Zealander taking Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year, but they aren't considering Armstrong a championship contender through the first third of the season. 

That changes with a victory at Road America, which starts a run of three consecutive podium finishes, ending with a second victory at Mid-Ohio. He has some struggles at Iowa, but he is back on the podium at Toronto. When IndyCar returns from its Olympic break at Gateway, Armstrong pulls out a top ten finish. 

In Portland, Armstrong is on the podium. He gets two top ten finishes in Milwaukee before he caps off the season with a podium finish that puts him just over the line for the championship.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
Armstrong should make a push for the championship top ten. His points pace was in that ballpark last year. His race results were far better than any of the other rookies last year. He had a few other good races get away from him and not necessarily because it was his fault. 

Eight to ten top ten finishes are realistic. Three or four top five finishes are realistic. Armstrong should probably be on the podium at least once and he is with the right team that he could pull out a victory. If the results are on the better end of expectations, Armstrong will be in the top ten of the championship, possibly pushing for the top five and he could fill in sixth in the championship where departed Ganassi driver Marcus Ericsson made a living for the last three years. 

That would be a great season for Armstrong. Anything between eighth and 13th will be a successful year in his first full campaign.

The first round of the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series season will be the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg on March 10. Coverage will begin at noon on NBC and Peacock.


Friday, October 20, 2023

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Chip Ganassi Racing's 2023 Season

The final IndyCar Wrap-Up brings us to the champions. It was only two years removed from its most recent title, but Chip Ganassi Racing not only ended up on top. It had one of its most complete seasons as an organization, and it accomplished it under conflicting circumstances. After legal turmoil over its driver lineup and what appeared to be an inevitable breakup, not only did Ganassi win a championship, it salvaged a relationship. 

Álex Palou
Palou made plenty of news leading into the 2023 season. After not being granted a release to Arrow McLaren, Palou still earned a reserve role for the McLaren Formula One team, and it looked certain he would be moving to McLaren in 2024. With a lame-duck season on paper with Ganassi, Palou shattered all expectations, on and off the track.

What objectively was his best race?
Palou won five races. The first was the Grand Prix of Indianapolis in May. Then Palou won three consecutive times, Detroit, Road America and Mid-Ohio. His victory at Portland clinched him the championship with a race remaining.

What subjectively was his best race?
None of his victories! Yep! Believe it because Palou's best race was the one he probably was the best driver. The Indianapolis 500. Palou was leading and under caution when he came in for a pit stop, Palou looked set to resume the race in the top five, but Rinus VeeKay lost control exiting his pit box, collided with Palou, and damaged the Catalan's car. 

The damage was not excessive, but it cost Palou ground and with the race around halfway done, it was a mighty setback. However, Palou went forward, driving from outside the top twenty to fourth by the time the checkered flag came out.

This could have been a bad race. This could have been a race where all Palou could have scored was a 16th-place finish and we all knew it didn't match his ability on the day. But Palou was launched out of a cannon and ended up getting just outside the mix for the victory. It also was a big swing in points because it could have been many points lost and the championship could have turned against him. Instead, he corrected course and came out on the right side.

What objectively was his worst race?
Palou had two eighth-place finishes. The first was at St. Petersburg where Palou was anonymous, one of the few days where he wasn't toward the front. The other was the first Iowa race. That was actually a little better than where Palou had run most of the race. Unfortunately, Palou was off the lead lap.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Palou didn't have any bad races this season. St. Petersburg gets this spot because it was the only one where he wasn't mentioned at any point. Sometimes not being mentioned can be a good thing. The first race was Palou's worst race of the season. It was all uphill from there.

Álex Palou's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 1st (656 points)
Wins: 5
Podiums: 10
Top Fives: 13
Top Tens: 17
Laps Led: 379
Poles: 2
Fast Sixes: 10
Fast Twelves: 12
Average Start: 6.0588
Average Finish: 3.7059

Scott Dixon
While Ganassi was juggling the future of one driver, it had the capable hands of Scott Dixon guiding one of its machines through the season. The veteran faced stiff competition from within the organization, and even on his best day, Dixon was still a distant second in the intra-team battle. It appeared Dixon was set to have one of his worst seasons in a long time during the middle of the summer. Then he did the remarkable.

What objectively was his best race?
Dixon pulled out not one, not two, but three stunning victory in the final four races of the season.

It was a speechless drive to victory in the August race on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course. Dixon qualified 15th. He was spun in turn seven on lap one. He made his first pit stop on lap five. He restarted 23rd. He ran a 27-lap stint and emerged as a top five driver. He ran another 27-lap stint, leap-frogging himself to the lead, and then he drove a methodical 27-lap stint to hold off Graham Rahal. It was staggering, but a performance only fit for Scott Dixon.

That was one thing, but then Dixon did it again two weeks later at Gateway. This time, he committed to a three-stop strategy, breaking the race into 65-lap segments, while everyone else flaked and jumped to a four-stop race. Dixon had to start 16th after taking a nine-spot penalty due to an unapproved engine change. Dixon's consistency allowed him to smash the field, winning by over 22 seconds! 

Twice is one thing, but then Dixon overcame a six-spot grid penalty, contact at the start, a penalty for that contact at the start and an untimely caution to win at Laguna Seca. Dixon ended up in the right spot when the caution came out for contact between Colton Herta and Hélio Castroneves. He inherited the lead and won with relative ease.

What subjectively was his best race?
Did you not just read what I wrote above? Nobody else could have pulled out one of those races and yet Dixon did it three times! If I had to pick one, the IMS road course victory is the most impressive. 

Dixon wasn't the only other driver to stop on lap five. Three other drivers stopped. The next best finisher was Colton Herta in 13th. David Malukas and Romain Grosjean both were outside the top fifteen. Herta and Grosjean aren't slouches. Neither came close to pulling off what Dixon accomplished.

What objectively was his worst race?
Dixon was put in the turn eight tires at Long Beach after contact with Patricio O'Ward. It felt like a 50/50 incident. Dixon wasn't happy with O'Ward afterward. The feeling was understandable.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Long Beach was Dixon's only finish outside the top ten. It isn't something Dixon did. It is really the only race that got away from him.

Scott Dixon's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 2nd (578 points)
Wins: 3
Podiums: 6
Top Fives: 11
Top Tens: 16
Laps Led: 205
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 7
Fast Twelves: 11
Average Start: 8.4118
Average Finish: 5.3529

Marcus Ericsson
Often overlooked, Ericsson was ready to emerge as more with Ganassi. Always a reliable driver, Ericsson again showed top-tier form and spent more time in the top ten than most. However, he had a teammate that would not falter, and while the results remained impressive, they were not leading the way for the organization. Add to it, Ericsson was in a contract year and was looking for a pay-raise. The Swede did not quite find what he was looking for when this season was over.

What objectively was his best race?
Ericsson won the season opener at St. Petersburg. It wasn't really a race where Ericsson was the driver to beat. He was running well, competing for a top five result, but the Romain Grosjean-Scott McLaughlin contact gave the Swede two spots for free. Then Patricio O'Ward had a plenum event in his engine cause O'Ward to lose power for a moment off of the final corner, and Ericsson was there to pounce and take the lead with four laps remaining, which the Swede turned into victory.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is not his victory. It is Ericsson's runner-up finish in the Indianapolis 500. Just like 2022, Ericsson stayed in the picture for the first for the first 300 miles and then he made his move to the front. He looked like the strongest car down the stretch. With the cautions and the red flags, it became a disjointed finish, a bit of a mess. Ericsson looked like he was going to steal a second consecutive Indianapolis 500 triumphant. Then he beat himself as much as Josef Newgarden beat him.

What objectively was his worst race?
An opening lap incident with fellow Swede Felix Rosenqvist at Mid-Ohio left Ericsson with a 27th-place finish. Ericsson clipped Rosenqvist in turn six. Ericsson made a bad move to the inside. Not the worst move in the world, but a costly one in this circumstance. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
Mid-Ohio was bad, but Toronto was a race where Ericsson had to make a pit stop on the final lap because he was out of fuel. This cost him a top ten finish. He still finished 11th, but he lost at least four or five spots due to this unscheduled stop.

Marcus Ericsson's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 6th (438 points)
Wins: 1
Podiums: 3
Top Fives: 4
Top Tens: 14
Laps Led: 51
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 4
Fast Twelves: 9
Average Start: 10.588
Average Finish: 8.6471

Marcus Armstrong
It was a different season for Chip Ganassi Racing, as it split its fourth car between two drivers. For road and street courses, Ganassi fielded Armstrong, a rookie but veteran from Formula Two that showed good potential but could not shatter the European junior formula scene. The New Zealander found comfort in IndyCar and passed the audition.

What objectively was his best race?
In his first visit to Toronto, Armstrong was seventh. It was not a day where Armstrong did much, but on what can be a tricky circuit, Armstrong did not get flustered and saw the checkered flag without any issues.

What subjectively was his best race?
This is going to sound weird, but it is his 24th at Road America, because Armstrong spent much of the first half of that race in the top five. He looked like a podium contender. Then the team made a questionable decision not to bring Armstrong to the pit lane under caution for the David Malukas incident. It put Armstrong in a weird spot. He led five laps but after his pit stop he got stuck in traffic and was spun off course, which relegated him to 24th.

What objectively was his worst race?
Along with his 24th at Road America, Armstrong was 24th at the August IMS road course race after he was spun on the opening lap off the front wing of his teammate Palou. Armstrong was trapped a lap down and never got back on the lead lap. He was essentially racing to 24th after the opening lap.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Road America. He was a top five car that race. At worst that day should have been a top ten finish. This result wasn't on him. The team took a chance, and it could have worked out, but it didn't quite pan out.

Marcus Armstrong's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 20th (214 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 5
Laps Led: 5
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 6
Average Start: 13.333
Average Finish: 13.083

Takuma Sato
While Armstrong focused on the road and street courses, Ganassi drafted Sato to run the ovals in what was the first season without Sato as a full-time competitor since 2009. The veteran was one the team knew could earn results at the oval races, but from day one this was not a guaranteed ride for all five oval events. Though there was a little pressure, Sato saw the season through. There were good days, and there were bad days.

What objectively was his best race?
Sato was seventh in the Indianapolis 500, in a race where he was up in the top ten for a majority of the races.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is Indianapolis. Sato was the fourth best of the Ganassi cars at Indianapolis, but the fourth best Ganassi car was still worthy of a top ten finish. Even if Palou did not get caught in the pit lane incident with Rinus VeeKay, Sato wasn't going to beat Palou. Ericsson and Dixon both rightfully finished ahead of Sato. Sato led two laps. Seventh was an accurate outcome for Sato performance on this day.

What objectively was his worst race?
In his first race of the season, Sato had an accident at Texas and that left him with a 28th-place finish with only 46 laps completed.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It isn't one race, but all of the crashes. Texas was bad. It didn't help that the reports came out Sato was not assured to run all the oval races at the start of that weekend and an accident while in the top third of the field was not a great first outing. It worked out as Sato did run all the oval races, but it was not a promising start, and the rest of the season wasn't much better.

Sato retired from the second Iowa race after brushing the wall, but he spent his entire Gateway race trying to knock down the turn two wall. He hit it twice before knocking himself out of the race when he hit it a third time. He did get to run all the oval races, but retiring from 60% of them due to accidents, all of which can only be laid on his shoulders, is not how Sato wanted this abbreviated season to go.

Takuma Sato's 2023 Statistics
Championship Position: 30th (53 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 2
Laps Led: 3
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 11
Average Finish: 19

An Early Look Ahead
Chip Ganassi Racing is coming off its most dominant season ever. 

Nine victories is not the most for this team in a season, but Ganassi had at least three top ten finishers in every race. It had multiple top five finishers in 11 races. It took the top two in the championship for the first time since 2009. It was a season we have seen from Team Penske a few times in recent seasons but now completed with Chip Ganassi Racing.

And off of this historic stranglehold, Ganassi leans into the youth moment and only continues to make his team younger. 

Scott Dixon will still be around, but joining the soon-to-be 27-year-old Álex Palou will be the soon-to-be 25-year-old rookie Linus Lundqvist while the 23-year-old Marcus Armstrong become the full-time driver in the #11 Honda, and Indy Lights driver Kyffin Simpson will join a five-car Ganassi lineup in 2024 at the age of 19 years old. 

Ganassi has moved away from veterans. Three of its drivers have never raced an IndyCar oval race let alone completed a full schedule, but the team is making some wise decisions.

Armstrong was more than ready for full-time this season. Ganassi didn't wait a beat to snag Lundqvist after his cameo appearances with Meyer Shank Racing substituting for an injured Simon Pageanud. Ganassi's goal is to get young, and he has scooped up some pretty good talent. 

It will not remain roses for this team into 2024. Palou will eventually finish outside the top ten. Dixon will not have a fuel conservation run go his way. The three young drivers will all make mistakes. Armstrong and Lundqvist will still have some impressive days, but there will be lessons learned the hard way. Simpson isn't ready for IndyCar, but Ganassi isn't going to turn down a few million dollars. 

This will still be Palou and Dixon's team. Palou dominated but it should not overshadow what Dixon did. Even though his victories came late and came through methodical drives, Dixon had 16 top ten finishes. If it wasn't for Patricio O'Ward, it likely would have been the second 17-for-17 top ten finish season in 2023. Dixon ended the season with five consecutive top five results and he had 11 total top five finishes. In many seasons, three victories, 11 top five finishes and 16 top ten finishes is enough to win a championship. 

We are not completely clear of the contractual conflict. McLaren has sued Palou after all, but Chip Ganassi is firmly behind his driver. It should not provide much distraction, but this will yet again not be a drama-free offseason for Ganassi and its championship driver. However, if the team could win the 2023 championship after everything that happened in 2022 and the expectation this would be the end of the Palou relationship, it should find a way through this predicament.