2026 IndyCar Team Preview: Arrow McLaren

There still might be 32 days until the first race of the 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season, but Arrow McLaren already picked up an early victory. This was in the form of a favorable court decision in the case relating to Álex Palou reneging on his McLaren contract. In a form of universal comedy, this preview was always planned for this date. It just so happened that the court decision came just a few days before. 

Perhaps the legal victory can spur on more success on the racetrack, something McLaren had a fair amount of in 2025. The team made great strides as it made another driver change, but this one seemed to work as McLaren had two bonafide challengers after being stuck with one. McLaren may have made progress, but there is still one thing it has yet to achieve, and it is within its grasp. 

At A Glance... McLaren has what it takes to win the championship

Year one with Christian Lundgaard saw McLaren's best results since it took over the Schmidt Peterson Motorsports program ahead of the 2020 season. Two McLaren drivers cracked the top five in the championship, a first for the organization. Patricio O'Ward was second in the championship, a new best. The team won twice. All the pieces are there for McLaren to come out as champion. 

It will not be an easy task. Álex Palou will remain the top driver to beat, and Palou is not going to slow down. Winning the championship will require finding ways to beat Palou and not making any missteps along the way. It will need to be near perfection. Chip Ganassi Racing is not going to slip up, and others are lurking as a challenge.

Team Penske is not going to remain down after a tough 2025 campaign. For the first half of 2025, Kyle Kirkwood and Andretti Global was Palou's main championship rival. Throw in Will Power at Andretti, and it is another challenger that is looking to muddle up McLaren's title hopes. It doesn't matter if you beat Palou if others are beating you both. 

The organization must find another level if it wants to claim the ultimate prize. O'Ward is there, but he must make another step. It is not going to be good enough to only win twice. Races cannot slip from his grasp when he is in control. He must be cutthroat and make the bold moves stick. Too many races have been lost because someone outmaneuvered the Mexican. That must change in 2026 if he hopes to be champion. 

O'Ward responded greatly in 2025 when Lundgaard entered and was the best McLaren driver through the first quarter of the season. What could have been a domino falling in favor of the new driver and casting O'Ward into the secondary role flipped and O'Ward increased his grip on the team. He showed he was the best McLaren driver and was keeping the flickering hopes of a championship alive deep into the season. He is McLaren's #1 bullet, but he must hit the target. The #2 option is pretty damn sharp as well. 

Lundgaard did not win a race in 2025, but when he was a threat he got everyone's attention. Six podium finishes is just as many as O'Ward pulled last season. What cost Lundgaard were a few mistakes, and he is still finding comfort on ovals. Plenty of drivers have overcome oval shortcomings. It means being near lights out on the road and street course, a difficult level to reach but not improbable for the Dane. 

McLaren has two drivers it can rest its championship hopes on. That is something the team has not had in the previous six seasons. Two is all it needs. The team has already expressed how little faith it has in Nolan Siegel, a driver racing for his job with a Herculean task of cracking the championship top ten to assure he continues for another season. Two cars are serious seats and the other is a sideshow. McLaren is hoping soon enough it will become a three-headed monster. We will likely know that answer come the middle of July. 

The pieces are in place for McLaren to come out as the best in IndyCar. It now must show it can put everything together. This is year seven of McLaren's involvement in IndyCar. It likely thought it would have won a championship by now. At some point, we will hear a clock ticking. There is one surefire way to silence it. 

2025 Arrow McLaren Review

Wins: 2 (Iowa I, Toronto)

Poles: 3 (Thermal Club, Portland, Nashville)

Championship Finishes: 2nd (Patricio O'Ward), 5th (Christian Lundgaard), 22nd (Nolan Siegel), 33rd (Kyle Larson)

Patricio O'Ward - #5 Arrow Chevrolet

Numbers to Remember:

10: Top five finishes in 2025, O'Ward's most in a season

3: Consecutive seasons with at least six podium finishes

196: Points behind Álex Palou in the championship last season

What is the best possible outcome?

It is the championship, but that would likely come with at least five or six victories. That would mean that losing a race after leading 80% of it. It would mean success on all three track disciplines. It could include an Indianapolis 500 victory, or it could be a top five finish in that race with a pair of oval victories or even a trio of oval victories. It would mean nearly eliminating all the mistakes and mechanical issues that cost him good results, and he would need probably a dozen top five finishes with 14 or 15 top ten finishes. 

It would also mean Palou isn't as flawless as we saw in 2025. It is a double-edged sword. O'Ward would need to improve combined with Palou taking a dip in form, something that is easier said than done. O'Ward needs to combine his best season ever with Palou being slightly less great than we have seen for the last three years.

What is realistic?

A championship is realistic, but at worst, O'Ward is middle of the championship top ten. He should be a lock for the championship top five. The biggest concern is the team around him. Will it still have strategy snafus cost it potential victories? Will there still be races where McLaren cannot break into the top ten and is fighting just to finish 12th? In an attempt to make up for a deficiency, does O'Ward go over the line and cost himself? 

If this team starts behind, it could be a long season chasing, and chasing only makes it prone to mistakes. No one can afford a slow start against Palou, but O'Ward especially. He is going to pick up his handful of victories and podium finishes. That likely will not be enough for the championship. He must avoid those occasional poor races, and some of those are out of his control. 

Nolan Siegel - #6 Arrow Chevrolet

Numbers to Remember:

3: Longest streak of top fifteen finishes in his IndyCar career (9th at Barber Motorsports Park, 13th at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and 13th at the Indianapolis 500 last year)

2: Times as the best finish McLaren driver, and on both occasions did his both his teammate finish outside the top fifteen

6: Starts in the top 12 last season

17.833: Average finish in those races starting in the top 12

16.9: Average finish in Siegel's other ten races starting 13th or worse

What is the best possible outcome?

Siegel is able to harness a fraction of the McLaren speed that we see in the other two cars. He is consistently completing laps and finding pace on each race weekend, which turns into more top ten finishes though he is still the third best McLaren in the field. A race or two break his way thanks to a timely pit stop or caution and those lead to a podium result or top five result. The middle of the field is a complete mess and it means there are not as many challengers for the championship top ten. 

Basically, the best possible outcome is if Siegel mirrors Santino Ferrucci's 2024 season with about ten or 11 top ten finishes, but most of those are finishes between seventh and tenth, but it is good enough to be ninth or tenth in the championship and at least fulfill the ultimatum McLaren team president Tony Kanaan set, securing Siegel another season at the organization.

What is realistic?

I am not sure Siegel can crack the top fifteen in the championship. The car can. The other two McLarens were in the championship top five. What is Siegel's excuse? He was 22nd in the championship in 2025 with two top ten finishes. He started outside the top fifteen in nine of 16 starts. In five races, he retired due to accidents. That can all improve, but still not look remarkably competitive. 

Siegel was 69 points behind Kyffin Simpson, and Simpson was moderately competitive. Siegel's best day never came close to Simpson's, and Simpson only had six top ten finishes. Maybe something swings and Siegel is able to pick up five or six top ten finishes, but that is the best outcome, and even if he does that, he isn't going to finish better than 17th or 18th in the championship. Alexander Rossi was 15th last year and Rossi had seven top ten finishes, two of which were top five results. Is Siegel going to match that output? I don't think so.

Christian Lundgaard - #7 Arrow Chevrolet

Numbers to Remember:

3: Times as the best finishing McLaren driver in the first four races of the 2025 season

3: Times as the best finishing McLaren driver in the final 13 races of the 2025 season

3: Top ten finishes on ovals in 2025

2: Top ten finishes in 16 oval starts with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing from 2022 to 2024

What is the best possible outcome?

Lundgaard turns about half of those podium results from 2025 into victories in 2026. He isn't throwing away results, and he is taking cars that don't belong better than eighth into the top five. He is constantly the quickest McLaren driver and he is able to keep O'Ward in his mirrors. Ovals click for Lundgaard, and he is not only finishing in the top ten but in the top five and maybe sneaking onto a podium or two. 

With three or four victories, about nine podium finishes and 13 top five finishes with his worst result all season being 13th, Lundgaard is able to take advantage of others not being as consistent as him, including Palou, who has a little bit of Josef Newgarden's luck rub off on him and about four races are much worse than they should have been due to things out of Palou's control. This opens the door and Lundgaard takes a slightly surprising championship though one that is not entirely implausible.

What is realistic?

Lundgaard is probably ranked somewhere between sixth and ninth in terms of championship favorites. It isn't crazy to think he could pull it off, but it is tough to imagine this will be the year he bests Palou, O'Ward, Scott Dixon, and all three Team Penske drivers. It is better than most, but for it to occur we would need to see a special start from Lundgaard and his oval results would need to be impressively better. Finishing ninth on the ovals is not going to be good enough. 

Though he was fifth in the championship in 2025, Lundgaard can still approve. Though he finished 84 points behind O'Ward in the championship, on Lundgaard's best day he was carrying McLaren with ease. There were a few slip ups and some of that was down to rough days on ovals, but if he is the best McLaren driver at every road and street course, Lundgaard will end the season best in the team. 

A victory feels highly likely. He was too close last year for none to occur again. A victory or two with another half-dozen podium finishes is basically what O'Ward did to finish second in the championship in 2025. Lundgaard can match that.

The 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season begins on Sunday March 1 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage will begin at noon Eastern.

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Arrow McLaren's 2025 Season

Our penultimate IndyCar Wrap-Up has us at Arrow McLaren, which is coming off arguably its best season since McLaren joined the fray ahead of the 2020 season. McLaren had two drivers at the top of the championship, and for the first time it felt like the team had a driver combination capable of winning races. Only one driver won, but that likely will not be the case moving forward. McLaren ended up coming closest to Álex Palou, but like the rest of the field, it has work to do to close that gap.

Patricio O'Ward

For the last few seasons, O'Ward has been at the top of IndyCar but has never firmly grasped being the best in the series. It is hard to do considering the competition, but on a few occasions, O'Ward would slip in his own right and let days get away from him. In 2025, O'Ward had his best IndyCar season. Everyone was competing for second, and O'Ward drove consistent enough to earn that spot.

What objectively was his best race?

O'Ward took two victories this season. The first was the first Iowa race where a slightly quicker pit stop allowed him to overtake Josef Newgarden through the final pit cycle after Newgarden had led the first 232 laps. The other was at Toronto where stopping early and having each caution go his way allowed O'Ward to win from tenth on the grid.

What subjectively was his best race?

It was neither of his victories. It is actually a race that got away from him. At Thermal Club, O'Ward was on for a banger of a day. He had driven to over a ten-second lead over Álex Palou, and it looked like O'Ward was set to win in convincing fashion with 64 of 65 laps led from pole position with fastest lap to boot. 

The only problem is O'Ward's team decided to end on the primary tire compound while Palou had a fresh set of alternate tires. Palou erased the ten-second deficit in seven laps before opening up a margin of victory over ten seconds to O'Ward. 

Not often does a driver lose a race and it was his subjective best, but this one came down to tire strategy, and I don't fault O'Ward nor his team for thinking a primary set of tires would be enough to hold on to a ten-second lead with 16 laps remaining. O'Ward drove a splendid race. Palou's team had an ace up its sleeve and it paid off. 

It would have been wrong to ignore O'Ward's day at Thermal Club because it was rather impressive, and it was going to be an early statement from him and the McLaren team until Palou stole the show.

What objectively was his worst race?

The championship ended at Portland when wiring issues caused O'Ward to slow on lap 21 and it ended any hope of keeping the championship alive into Milwaukee. O'Ward ended up ten laps down in 25th.

What subjectively was his worst race?

Nashville was likely O'Ward's best race of the season, but with how it ended, and how it ended O'Ward's season, it is hard to draw any positives from it. O'Ward was unstoppable at Nashville. From pole position, O'Ward led 116 of the first 126 laps. It felt like no one had an answer for him. A right front tire failure was the only thing that could stop him, and it did. O'Ward lost the right front in turn two and it sent him into the barrier. A chance at victory was gone and his season ended with a 24th-place result when he was the best driver on the day.

Patricio O'Ward's 2025 Statistics

Championship Position: 2nd (515 points)
Wins: 2
Podiums: 6
Top Fives: 10
Top Tens: 12
Laps Led: 258
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 4
Fast Twelves: 9
Average Start: 7.588
Average Finish: 8.411

Christian Lundgaard

Lundgaard was taking a step up in 2025 moving to Arrow McLaren after three seasons at Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. If the Dane could be a top ten championship driver and a race winner at RLLR, he would surely find success at McLaren. Unlike the number of drivers to join the team since 2020, Lundgaard firmly established himself as a threat. For the first part of the season, Lundgaard was the team leader.

What objectively was his best race?

Three times was Lundgaard a runner-up in the 2025 season. The first was at Barber Motorsports Park before he had consecutive runner-up finishes at Laguna Seca and Portland.

What subjectively was his best race?

Barber Motorsports Park felt like the race where Lundgaard was firmly set as a competitive driver at McLaren. Through the first four races, he was better than O'Ward. At Barber, Lundgaard drove from seventh to second with some impressive passes on his teammate as well as Will Power and Scott McLaughlin. He still finished over 16 seconds behind Palou, but Lundgaard did his darn best to be best of the rest.

What objectively was his worst race?

Three laps before O'Ward's tire failure at Nashville, Lundgaard pulled into the pit lane with a mechanical issue and retired from the race. In a blink, McLaren had two cars done for the season in 24th and 25th respectively for the finale.

What subjectively was his worst race?

Nashville was a tough way to end the season. The Grand Prix of Indianapolis is another race to earmark. Lundgaard has run well on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course in his career. In 2025, he had a good starting position in seventh, but an improper blend out of the pit lane led to a penalty that shuffled him back to 16th. Considering he had three consecutive podium finishes entering that race, this was a tough way for such a positive run of form to end.

Christian Lundgaard's 2025 Statistics

Championship Position: 5th (431 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 6
Top Fives: 6
Top Tens: 11
Laps Led: 54
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 6
Fast Twelves: 10
Average Start: 10
Average Finish: 9.588

Nolan Siegel

In his first full season with Arrow McLaren, Siegel was hoping whatever he picked up from running most of the races in 2024 would lead him to better results, especially at tracks he would be visiting for the second time. We still saw growing pains for Siegel, and those were amplified as his two teammates were regularly at the front.

What objectively was his best race?

Siegel was eighth at Road America despite making five pit stops and starting 13th on the grid.

What subjectively was his best race?

It is Road America. His only other top ten finish was ninth at Barber Motorsports Park.

What objectively was his worst race?

Siegel was hit at the start of the St. Petersburg race with contact from Will Power spinning him into the barrier. Without completing a lap, Siegel was classified in 25th for the first race of the season.

What subjectively was his worst race?

Siegel was the best rookie on track at the start of the final lap of the Indianapolis 500. He was 12th on the road, and then he spun in turn two. Considering what happened to the two Andretti cars that finished in the top ten, Siegel could have finished tenth on his Indianapolis 500 debut had he just made it another two-thirds of a lap. He still was placed in 13th after the post-race penalties were applied, but he could have had this clear bright spot for his season had he been able to complete one more lap.

It should also be noted that Siegel missed the second Iowa race after having an accident in race one and not being cleared to drive the next day. Missing a race is tough regardless of how the season is going.

Nolan Siegel's 2025 Statistics

Championship Position: 22nd (213 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 2
Laps Led: 11
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 4
Average Start: 13.705
Average Finish: 17.25

An Early Look Ahead

McLaren has a 1-2 combination it has never had in IndyCar. One driver won races while the other was frequently in the picture and will likely win in 2026. The team went 2-4 in the championship with the only drivers ahead and between from Chip Ganassi Racing. McLaren has never been closer to the IndyCar championship since it returned to the series. 

Things could go McLaren's way. Palou isn't going to win eight races a season every season. Everything comes to an end. Only one driver has won four consecutive championships in IndyCar history. Life is a number's game. The odds are against Palou. Why couldn't McLaren be the benefactor of those odds? It has positioned itself to be next in line, and it has two drivers there to slide into the top spot. 

For the slow start to the season, O'Ward did assert himself as the top McLaren driver, but Lundgaard will likely improve next season. Lundgaard has likely worked through some of the rough patches and the #7 McLaren team likely have a better understanding of how things work. If Lundgaard gets off to a hot start again like he did in 2025, I don't know if it is a certainty O'Ward will get back ahead. 

Ovals are the one thing working in O'Ward's favor. Lundgaard did better this year but he has some work to do to be a contender. He was at least getting top ten finishes, but to win a championship it would be helpful to sneak onto the podium in a few oval races. Perhaps Lundgaard can get to that level in 2026. 

The expectation should be more next season. More from O'Ward and more from Lundgaard. Both drivers should be winning races. If both drivers can win two or three times, as long as they aren't taking each other out, they could both challenge for the title. 

Then there is Siegel. Considering the short leash McLaren has given other drivers, 2026 will be make-or-break. Alexander Rossi, Felix Rosenqvist and Oliver Askew were all cast aside earlier and with far better results to their name than Siegel has achieved in his season-plus time with the organization. He might bring some money but not enough that isn't replaceable to the organization. He only turns 21 years old in November, but McLaren isn't going to subscribe to a long experiment. 

If McLaren is running three cars, it is going to want all three to be at the front. We know Team Penske can have three cars battling at the front, and Andretti Global has the pieces on paper to do the same. McLaren cannot afford to have a third car trudging along at the back, and there are plenty of capable drivers on the sidelines. 

There are plenty of positives to draw from 2025. Looking at all the pieces, McLaren has what it takes for something greater next season.

2025 IndyCar Team Preview: Arrow McLaren

January is nearly over, and the 2025 IndyCar season is a smidge more than a month away. Thirty-two days are all that separate this moment from the first green flag of the season in St. Petersburg. We still have over half the grid to preview. 

We end January looking at a race-winning team who is hoping to achieve so much more. Arrow McLaren stepped up in 2024 after having a disappointing 2023 season. Patricio O'Ward showed he is still a brilliant talent and got McLaren back on the top step after a lengthy drought. O’Ward cemented himself as one of IndyCar's best personalities as well. Unfortunately, the team's woes were not completely cured. McLaren had one car working but struggled to have multiple contenders at one time. 

There has been one driver change and a part-timer will be a full-timer. However, this team is still one man.

At First Glance... It is Patricio O'Ward and friends

For all the work McLaren has done in IndyCar, no one has had more success with the team than O'Ward. Arguably, O'Ward is the only driver to have success in the McLaren era of this organization. 

Since 2020, O'Ward has finished in the top five of the championship in four of five seasons and his worst championship finish has been seventh. The Mexican driver has seven victories, 26 podium finishes and 38 top five finishes. He has done all this in 78 starts. 

Over that same time period, all the other McLaren drivers have combined for zero victories, six podium finishes and 17 top five finishes. The best championship finish for a McLaren driver not named O'Ward is eighth. 

McLaren goes as far as O'Ward goes, and that shouldn't be the case for a team that believes it should be considered one of IndyCar's "Big Four" and be a perennial championship contender. 

For all that McLaren has put into its IndyCar program, it is still too top heavy. It has not helped that the tea has not been able to find a suitable teammate to form a 1-2 punch. O'Ward has had effectively four different regular teammates in five seasons. That is not considering the likes of Callum Ilott and Théo Pourchaire, who rotated through the #6 Chevrolet last season before the team settled on Nolan Siegel, nor is it considering the Indianapolis 500 one-offs in Fernando Alonso, Juan Pablo Montoya, Tony Kanaan and Kyle Larson, nor is it accounting for the time Hélio Castroneves ran the Harvest Grand Prix doubleheader in place of Oliver Askew in 2020. 

You would think in five seasons McLaren would have found a solid driver to form a partnership with one of the best young talents to come out of the Road to Indy system in the last 25 years. That has remained elusive as has the greatest results. 

Enter Christian Lundgaard, a driver who once took Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing to eighth in the championship and won a race when the team was not at its strongest. Lundgaard lifted RLLR to a higher level. He could not cure all the team's woes but he made them competitive. 

McLaren is a step up from RLLR, but we have seen plenty of promising drivers enter McLaren and quickly be out the door. Askew didn't get a second season despite finishing on the podium in his fifth career race. Felix Rosenqvist had three seasons, but very well could have been done after two if the Álex Palou contract fiasco had not played out. Alexander Rossi was done after two seasons and he finished in the top ten in the championship in both. 

There is a short leash, and Lundgaard is not going to get any additional slack. The Dane could be the missing piece. We have already seen him do more with less. But we thought Rosenqvist was the missing pieces and we thought Rossi was the missing piece. It is difficult to believe the third time will be the charm. 

There is no reason to believe O'Ward will be threatened within this organization. This is his team. Lundgaard must be spectacular to come close. Siegel's inclusion in this trio remains a bit of a mystery. For all the good we saw in Indy Lights, there was nothing suggesting Siegel was a can't-miss talent that required the rush to IndyCar. 

For Lundgaard, he must be on O'Ward's heels. For Siegel, he must at least look competent. No matter what, all eyes are on O'Ward to set the mark for McLaren. If he gets any support, it will be an added bonus.

2024 Arrow McLaren Review

Wins: 3 (St. Petersburg, Mid-Ohio, Milwaukee I)

Poles: 0

Best Start: 2nd (Mid-Ohio)

Championship Finishes: 5th (Patricio O'Ward), 10th (Alexander Rossi), 23rd (Nolan Siegel), 28th (Théo Pourchaire), 33rd (Callum Ilott), 36th (Kyle Larson)

Patricio O'Ward - #5 Arrow Chevrolet

Numbers to Remember:

6: Finishes of first or second in 2024

0: Finishes of third, fourth or fifth in 2024

178.8: Average number of laps led in a season since 2020

What does a championship season look like for him?

O'Ward doing his very best on a regular basis and the off days being non-existent. It is a season where O'Ward wins early, wins in the middle of the season, and he wins late as well. Every weekend, his name is being mentioned, but for good. 

There are next to no weekends where O'Ward is mentioned for something going wrong, whether that be an accident, a pit lane issue or a mechanical issue. A bad day would be a 12th-place finish. 

The season would start with at least a podium finish but victory would come in one of the first three races and that would put O'Ward in the championship lead early. Every race weekend, we would be checking to see if anyone could overtake O'Ward, but he keeps finishing in the top five. Some might pull some points back, but nobody would be taking big chunks out of the deficit. 

The defining moment would be an Indianapolis 500 victory. After years of close calls, this is O'Ward's year and it leads him to be the clear man to beat in the championship. He follows it up with a victory in Detroit, doing something that had not been done in 25 years, and another victory in Gateway makes the championship appear to be a forgone conclusion. 

O'Ward settles down over summer, but is never far off the front. He wins another pair of races before we get to Nashville and the championship trophy is either already his or firmly in his grasp. 

What does a realistic season look like for him?

The dream season is realistic for O'Ward. It only requires something we have yet to see from him and the organization. Until the two parties can put together a full 17-race season, it is hard to imagine how they can clinically take a championship and make the rest of the competition look amateur. 

You can pencil in a victory or two or maybe even three, but when it comes to O'Ward, there are at least two or three results outside the top 18 that are not too far away. Some are his fault, others are inexplicable. They aren't going away overnight. 

It could work out where O'Ward can pull off four victories, eight podium finishes and 14 top ten finishes and those cancel out those two or three bad days while the rest of the competition take victories and podiums off one another and it allows to O'Ward to sneak through as champion. That is unlikely to happen. 

He is going to win a race. He is going to be at the front. He will be in the top five of the championship. If O'Ward is at his very best, he can achieve greatness. If is slightly off, it will be another good but unfulfilled season.

Nolan Siegel - #6 Arrow Chevrolet

Numbers to Remember:

4: Lead lap finishes in 12 starts last season

0: Lead laps finishes in his final six starts

4: Times finishing as the top rookie in a race 

What does a championship season look like for him?

McLaren being the best team in IndyCar and all three cars are at the front. If Siegel is champion, the entire McLaren team is at the front, and he is likely ahead of O'Ward because O'Ward missed some races. Filling the vacuum is the American few believe in, but after opening the season as the third of the three McLaren drivers, when O'Ward goes down, Siegel raises his game. 

An unthinkable victory comes in the first race sans O'Ward. Siegel keeps it up with another podium finish and then another top five. A second victory makes it four consecutive top five results. Each race, Siegel is moving up the championship. He wins a pair of races in July, including at his home race of Laguna Seca, and he is on the edge of the playoff picture entering August. 

Siegel ends his season with finishes of second, first and first and takes an improbable championship with O'Ward running at wingman down the stretch to clinch the Astor Cup for the organization.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

Unfortunately for McLaren drivers, underwhelming results are common place in the organization. 

In his 12 starts last season across three different organizations, Siegel's average points per start was 12.833. Extrapolated over 17 races and he was on pace for 218 points, good enough for only 19th in the championship and more than 30 points off 18th. 

With more time in the car and with the team, Siegel should do better than that, but expectations will not be for him living in O'Ward or Lundgaard's shadow. There will be daylight between those two and Siegel. His average finish in ten races with McLaren was 16.4. That should improve, but being somewhere between 12th and 15th isn't what McLaren is aiming for. 

He will get his top ten finishes. If things fall right, Siegel could get a top five result, but for most of 2025 Siegel will be somewhere in the middle of the pack and have us wondering if he is really in the plans for 2026.

Christian Lundgaard - #7 Arrow Chevrolet

Numbers to Remember:

4: Finishes outside the top twenty in 52 career starts

16.882: Average finish in 17 career oval starts

9.9714: Average finish in 35 road/street course starts

What does a championship season look like for him?

Lundgaard transitioning to McLaren and it being the change that complements his driving style and pace. He is in lockstep with O'Ward from the start of the season. They are constantly within a position of one another in qualifying and the races. Everyone is impressed but they aren't taking Lundgaard too seriously as a threat. 

Then he wins Long Beach and catches everyone’s attention. Lundgaard goes on a run where he is the best McLaren driver over the next two races leading into the Indianapolis 500. O'Ward wins the “500” and gets all the glory, but Lundgaard quietly finishes seventh, a respectable showing considering his past "500" runs. While O'Ward is hungover, Lundgaard wins in Detroit, finishes in the top five in Gateway and wins at Road America, putting him in the championship lead. 

Another podium finish follows at Mid-Ohio, but O'Ward sweeps the Iowa weekend while Lundgaard has his roughest days of the season. In Toronto, Lundgaard is back on the podium and then he wins at Laguna Seca. A top five follows at Portland and he goes into the final two oval races in control but knowing he must be on point. 

A podium in Milwaukee sets Lundgaard up to only need a the top fourteen finish in the finale to clinch the title. He has a car good enough for eighth at Nashville and he keeps it planted there for the entire race to seal the deal. 

What does a realistic season look like for him?

If Lundgaard can finish eighth in the championship with RLLR, he can finish eighth in the championship with McLaren. He could also finish a little better than that. 

We have seen at enough road and street course events that when the setup is dialed in Lundgaard can run for victories, and one victory is not a crazy thought in 2025, though no other McLaren driver has been able to win other than O'Ward. Lundgaard should provide a greater challenge on road and street courses. There should be a few weekends where Lundgaard is clearly the fastest McLaren driver. 

Ovals will still be acstruggle, but not to the extent we saw at RLLR. Speed was completely absent at RLLR and Lundgaard couldn't crack the top twenty even with everything in his favor. Faster cars will put him further toward the front, but with a lack of experience battling for those competitive positions, he will have a few results not go his way. 

A victory with four podium finishes, six top five results and 11 top ten finishes should be enough to earn him the best season of his career. 

The 2025 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 2 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage of the season opener will begin at noon Eastern Time.

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Arrow McLaren's 2024 Season

We are getting into the final IndyCar Wrap-Ups, and we are getting into the race winning teams. After not winning a race in 2023, Arrow McLaren had a significant bounce back, winning three times. One of those might have been a gift, but McLaren still had strong days. It did have rough patches. Its season started rather slow. Too often did it feel like all the success came from one driver. When the team was off, everyone was off. It was not a bad season, but McLaren was not really pushing for a championship, something it expects to be doing.

Patricio O'Ward

After four runner-up finishes in 2023, it did not take long for O'Ward to get a victory. He technically won the first race, but it wasn't on the road and weeks after the checkered flag had flown. However, good days would come for the Mexican driver. He had some stellar outings to show he still has what it takes in IndyCar. Mechanical issues did befall his season, as well as a few mental errors. This was better than the year before, but it is ok to be wishing for more.

What objectively was his best race?
O'Ward won three races, one of three drivers to win three races this season. O'Ward won at St. Petersburg, Mid-Ohio and the first Milwaukee race. The St. Petersburg victory was awarded to O'Ward after Josef Newgarden and Team Penske was disqualified for a rule infraction of manipulating the push-to-pass system. The Mid-Ohio victory came after leap-frogging Álex Palou in the final pit cycle. At Milwaukee, O'Ward drove a splendid race and won over Will Power.

What subjectively was his best race?

Mid-Ohio was probably his best drive of the season as O'Ward and Palou went at it for the final third of the race and neither could give an inch, but the most satisfying victory must be Milwaukee. Days after being disrespected when IndyCar CEO Mark Miles suggested O'Ward was not popular enough for a race in Mexico City, O'Ward beat down the entire IndyCar grid. It was a statement victory at the best possible time.

What objectively was his worst race?
O'Ward lost an engine at Gateway after only 42 laps and he finished 26th.

What subjectively was his worst race?

No one was more heartbroken after a race than O'Ward after finishing second in the Indianapolis 500. He was less than a mile from victory entering turn three when Josef Newgarden made a daring pass around the outside in turn three and it stuck. Newgarden was gone. O'Ward could not counter, and for the second time in three years, he was runner-up. It was an outstanding drive, and in no ways a bad performance, but we only saw one driver truly heartbroken after losing a race this season. This was crushing. O'Ward might have won over the crowd, but glory again escaped him.

Patricio O'Ward's 2024 Statistics

Championship Position: 5th (460 points)
Wins: 3
Podiums: 6
Top Fives: 6
Top Tens: 10
Laps Led: 189
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 4
Fast Twelves: 8
Average Start: 8.529
Average Finish: 10.118

Alexander Rossi

After a good first year for Arrow McLaren, Rossi needed to make a big step forward in 2024. That didn't really happen. He more or less matched his 2023 output, which was good, but not great. While O'Ward won races, Rossi wasn't really in the conversation. There wasn't a race where Rossi was the clear McLaren leader and leading the entire field. He could finish in the top ten, but not be a regular in the top five, and now changes are coming for 2025.

What objectively was his best race?
Rossi's only podium finish was third at Laguna Seca. Pit strategy looked to be in his favor before it wasn't and the team made a pit stop under caution, gifting control of the race to Palou.

What subjectively was his best race?

Indianapolis was again one of Rossi's best races and it looked like he had a real shot for his second Indianapolis 500 victory. He was the best Arrow McLaren driver for most of the race. A decision to stop the earliest on the final round of pit stops proved to be costly. Rossi had to watch his fuel in the sprint to the finish. He couldn't keep up with the leaders, and he was fortunate to finish fourth.

What objectively was his worst race?
An unsecured tire on a pit stop at Barber Motorsports Park took Rossi out of the race and he finished 25th.

What subjectively was his worst race?

It is the race Rossi missed. A broken wrist in Friday practice at Toronto took him out of the car, ending a streak of 142 consecutive starts to begin a career. Worst of all, Rossi finished one point outside of ninth in the championship. If he starts at Toronto, he gets at least five points.

Alexander Rossi's 2024 Statistics

Championship Position: 10th (366 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 3
Top Tens: 9
Laps Led: 109
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 5
Average Start: 10.625
Average Finish: 10.438

Nolan Siegel

Nobody saw the 2024 season playing out like this for Nolan Siegel. Committed to Indy Lights, Siegel was looking to be in a title fight with Jacob Abel and Louis Foster. The door opened for a handful of IndyCar races with Dale Coyne Racing, and Siegel was set to run on all the weekends that did not have Indy Lights races. However, the driver carousel at McLaren opened up an opportunity, and his relationship with Zak Brown saw him end up making the move to IndyCar earlier than expected.

What objectively was his best race?
Through the mess at Gateway Motorsports Park, Siegel ended up finishing seventh as a number of drivers fell out of the race. He benefitted from more than the accidents. The cautions also fell in his favor that allowed him to finish seventh.

What subjectively was his best race?

It is Gateway, and it was a race going well even before the accidents. Siegel was on a conservative strategy, and he was in the thick of it, but a pit lane speeding penalty took him out of the running. The cautions allowed him to get back on the lead lap and finish in seventh.

What objectively was his worst race?
Siegel did not qualify for the Indianapolis 500. Driving for Dale Coyne Racing, Siegel had an accident in practice and that set him behind the eight-ball. He made an attempt to qualify, but Coyne could not get the car up to speed. Siegel spun on his final qualifying run, the final run of the Last Chance Qualifying session.

Siegel's actual worst finish in a race he participated in was 25th in the second Milwaukee race after his gearbox broke only 24 laps in.

What subjectively was his worst race?

It doesn't get worse than failing to qualify for the Indianapolis 500. Siegel was put in a bad situation and Dale Coyne Racing was not best situated for the Indianapolis 500 this year. There can be positive to take away from that experience. Siegel still experienced what it was like to qualify for the Indianapolis 500 and a practice week. He is prepared for 2025 and there will be no surprises.

Nolan Siegel's 2024 Statistics

Championship Position: 23rd (154 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 1
Laps Led: 8
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 19.75
Average Finish: 17.5

Théo Pourchaire

Prior to the introduction of Nolan Siegel, Pourchaire was McLaren's squeeze. As Callum Ilott had scheduling conflicts with his FIA World Endurance Championship responsibilities, McLaren needed a driver. Pourchaire was loaned out from Sauber to race in IndyCar. Results were good and it looked like Pourchaire was going to run out the season. Unfortunately for the Frenchman, he signed with the most volatile IndyCar team when it comes to drivers, and Pourchaire was out for nothing he did wrong.

What objectively was his best race?
Pourchaire's only top ten finish in IndyCar was tenth at Detroit. It wasn't the cleanest race, as he had a run-in with Agustín Canapino that we will never forget. However, Pourchaire still took a damaged car and finished in the top ten on a weekend where he looked comfortable. He qualified seventh and was caught in the opening lap stack up, but he looked competitive and really looked good.

What subjectively was his best race?

His debut at Long Beach was pretty good. Pourchaire made his debut on short notice with no testing. It was always going to be a struggle, especially at a street course, but McLaren ran a smart race with Pourchaire. They didn't put him on a conservative strategy. They didn't try to make him save fuel. He was put on a strategy to run hard and he finished 11th coming in colder than most drivers before an IndyCar debut.

What objectively was his worst race?
Pourchaire was bulldozed late in the Barber race by his own teammate. Patricio O'Ward drilled Pourchaire and it cost both drivers as none of the three McLaren entries finished in the top twenty. Pourchaire was classified the best of the three but that was in 22nd position.

What subjectively was his worst race?

The race he didn't get to run, Laguna Seca. It was stunning when it was announced Pourchaire would be removed of the #6 Chevrolet ahead of the Laguna Seca race for Nolan Siegel. McLaren had practically confirmed Pourchaire would close out the season with the team, including the Frenchman running the ovals. Pourchaire tested at Gateway! But, suddenly, he was dropped for Siegel, and worst of all, Pourchaire had openly expressed his excitement for running at Laguna Seca. It felt like we were watching a young driver have his dreams come true, only for it to be ripped out from underneath him. It was a tough break. He got one more race substituting for Alexander Rossi at Toronto, but it was a harsh end to what was a positive part of this 2024 season.

Théo Pourchaire's 2024 Statistics

Championship Position: 28th (91 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 1
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 19.1667
Average Finish: 14.833

An Early Look Ahead

McLaren needed this season. A second winless would not go over well. It is a team that clearly goes as far as Patricio O'Ward can take them. 

In the last five season, O'Ward is the only Arrow McLaren to win a race. O'Ward has 26 podium finishes in that time. Every other McLaren driver in that timeframe have a combined six podium finishes. While O'Ward has finished in the top five in the championship in four of the last five seasons, the next best championship finish for a McLaren driver during that time is eighth. 

For all the waves McLaren has made in creating a "Big Four" in IndyCar when there is really only a "Big Two," it is still far off from being a force in the series, and it is fair to wonder if McLaren is benefitting more from having O'Ward as one of its drivers than O'Ward is benefitting from driving for McLaren. 

We are heading into 2025 with McLaren about to add another promising young driver, and in each of the previous occasions, we have not seen that driver flourish at his highest levels while at McLaren. Felix Rosenqvist did not wildly outperform his time at Chip Ganassi Racing while driving for McLaren. Alexander Rossi did not become a championship threat again. Oliver Askew got one broken season, which was altered due to the pandemic and in which he was knocked out of a car due to a concussion. We should not be surprised if Christian Lundgaard is outstanding, but we also should not expect great things for Lundgaard. It is not because of talent but because of the team he is driving for. We should expect a bumpy road because every equal talent before him has experienced the same thing. 

From what we have seen from Lundgaard, he has the ability to be level with O'Ward. If you can finish eighth in the IndyCar championship with a victory at Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing with a rather strong qualifying record, you should be able to move to Arrow McLaren and be more competitive, but we saw Rossi compete for championships at Andretti Global and not even come close to a victory in two seasons at McLaren. 

Lundgaard should experience an ease moving to McLaren where it has more resources and it is not woefully slow on ovals. He is a driver hungry for more after stalling out at RLLR. Maybe that is a hunger that was missing in Rosenqvist and Rossi, and with Lundgaard it can turn two McLaren entries in regular front-runners. Eventually, McLaren will hit on one of its hires and it will have multiple drivers threatening for victories on a regular basis. If that is the case, it is more likely Lundgaard completing the one-two combo than Siegel. 

Siegel had good results in Indy Lights, but there was nothing to suggest Siegel was some kind of can't-miss talent that teams were running to hire. Other than Dale Coyne Racing taking Siegel's money to run four events, people were not knocking down the door to hire Siegel, nor has anyone been rushing to hire anyone from Indy Lights and the Road to Indy system. There are no Oscar Piastris or Andrea Kimi Antonelli's in the Road to Indy system where you have multiple teams fighting for their service. 

Generally, top IndyCar teams let young talent go, see what they can do spending their own money at a mid-pack team, and then they will hire them at a favorable price. Chip Ganassi Racing could have hired Linus Lundqvist after his Indy Lights championship season, but it needed to see him run three races for Meyer Shank Racing before making its decision.

Let's put it this way. Siegel averaged 12.833 points per start. Prorate that over a 17-race season, and that is 218 points, good enough for 19th this year in the championship and still 33 points behind Graham Rahal. Théo Pourchaire averaged 18.2 points per start, which is 309 points over 17 races, good enough for 12th in this year's championship and only three points off Lundgaard's point total.

McLaren does not have a long leash for drivers in IndyCar. Siegel will only turn 20 years old on November 9, but if this team is willing to part from an Indy Lights champion after one season, cut ties with Rosenqvist after three years and punt Rossi after two years, why should we believe Siegel is safe? The noise McLaren makes is about being one of the best teams in IndyCar. It pays drivers well, but the results do not match. McLaren could easily upgrade its driver lineup and find a replacement for Siegel. There is a certain Frenchman without a job who likely was the better candidate still on the sidelines.

This might be the team we know the most about heading into 2025. McLaren will ride O'Ward to the top, and somewhere over the course of the season we will hear about a potential shakeup. Prepare for choppy waters.

2024 IndyCar Team Preview: Arrow McLaren

We are reaching the halfway point through the IndyCar team previews, and we are 44 days from the season opener in St. Petersburg. Arrow McLaren was a few laps away from winning last year's season opener. Though victory was not in the cards that day, it felt it would to be long until McLaren came out on top. However, that was never the case in 2023. There were plenty of brilliant performances but McLaren could not breakthrough for victory in what can only be described as a disappointing season. There has been a driver change as the papaya posse looks to get on the board early in 2024.

At First Glance... One of these drivers is not like the others

How the hell is David Malukas a McLaren driver? 

Let's look at the raw numbers for a moment. 

In his rookie season, Malukas had three top ten finishes and his best finish was second at Gateway. His average finish was 14th with an average starting position around 12.6 with seven top ten starts and he made the second round of qualifying in seven of 12 road/street course races. He was running at the finish of 14 of 17 races and he was only in three accidents all season. Malukas ended up 16th in the championship, the second best rookie, 18 points behind Rookie of the Year Christian Lundgaard.

In his sophomore season, Malukas doubled his top ten finish total to six, he was in the top five twice, both on ovals with a fourth at Texas and a third at Gateway, but Malukas also doubled his retirements, failing to finish six races, his average finish dropped to 16.353, his average starting position dropped to 15.765, and he only made the second round of qualifying at road/street courses twice. In terms of percentage of laps completed, Malukas went from 95.2% complete in 2022 to 88% in 2023. He dropped to 17th in the championship

I know many were impressed with Malukas at Gateway, and he has had some respectable drives, but is this really a McLaren quality driver?

McLaren has gone through drivers like they are going out of style since purchasing part of Schmidt Peterson Motorsports. After the high standards that saw James Hinchcliffe and Marcus Ericsson both canned when McLaren first bought into the team, Oliver Askew bounced after a fair rookie season, and had Felix Rosenqvist on the hot seat from day one, is David Malukas really the guy McLaren should have hired?

This action does not match the words coming from McLaren's brass. The Malukas hire feels like it is destined to become to McLaren what Ed Jones' one season is to Chip Ganassi Racing. I think if teams were forced to wait two months until after the season ends to hire a driver, I don't think McLaren would have taken Malukas. This was supposed to be Álex Palou's seat. Let's face it, there is a steep drop-off from Palou to Malukas.

Malukas could be a good driver, but are we really sure he is ready for this move? He isn't going to have an aging Takuma Sato and a unqualified Sting Ray Robb as teammate. Patricio O'Ward has finished in the championship top five in three of four full-time seasons and his worst season is seventh in the championship. Alexander Rossi has finished in the championship top ten in seven consecutive seasons and his worst season was 11th in the championship.

That is the standard Malukas will have to live up to, and he cannot bank on one great day at Gateway bailing him out. He will have to do it over all 17 races. He had bursts at Dale Coyne Racing, but it will take more than that to succeed at McLaren.

2023 Arrow McLaren Review

Wins: 0

Best Finish: 2nd (St. Petersburg, Texas, Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Gateway, Portland)

Poles: 2 (Texas, Laguna Seca)

Championship Finishes: 4th (Patricio O'Ward), 9th (Alexander Rossi), 12th (Felix Rosenqvist)

Patricio O'Ward - #5 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet

Numbers to Remember:

154: Laps led in the first seven races of the 2023 season

33: Laps led in the final ten races of the 2023 season

6.3529: Average starting position in 2023, the best of his career

What does a championship season look like for him?

Not having an accident in the Indianapolis 500 and not having an accident after a botched pit stop in Detroit. It will also require Álex Palou not having an insanely successful season and winning three consecutive races at some point while not finishing worse than eighth all season. O'Ward must breakthrough and win a few races.

O'Ward had seven podium finishes last season, a healthy amount and in some seasons the total of champion driver. However, it does require getting those ten extra points, the difference between first and second, a few times and also being a slight step better even on good days. 

O'Ward closed out the 2023 season with ten consecutive top ten results, but there was a five-race span over the summer where he finished eighth, eighth, third, tenth and eighth. Not bad, but there is a gulf between good and great. Eighth is good. Good isn't enough. 

For three of the last four seasons, O'Ward has done things that are championship-esque, in the realm of being the clear best, but there are pockets of misfortune that have held him back in each of those years. Taking the title will mean limiting those bad days and taking another step forward.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

The championship is absolutely possible. This is a driver who started the 2023 season with a second-place finish after leading with five to go, second after trading the lead four times in the final ten laps with a caution with a lap and a half remaining canceling any final chance for victory, 17th, fourth, second again and then leading the most laps in the Indianapolis 500 before having an accident while battling for second and still having a shot at victory.

The start to last season was on the right track toward a championship. We have seen enough results to know the pieces are all there for O'Ward to win a title, and McLaren has the resources to provide him a car good enough for the push, it is now down to all the pieces coming together. 

He can do it. He might have gone winless but there would be no surprise if the rebound from that season was a four-victory season with eight podium finishes and ten top five finishes leading a serious title push that could end with him on top. 

David Malukas- #6 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet

Numbers to Remember:

10.7: Average finish in ten oval starts

15.6428: Average finish in 14 road course starts

19: Average finish in ten street course starts

What does a championship season look like for him?

The Álex Palou route. Winning on debut for the new team and immediately asserting his presence on the IndyCar grid after being openly accepted as a driver good enough to be there but not seen as a threat to the grid. 

There will be lingering questions over the opening rounds if Malukas has what it takes for a full season championship run. There will be a mediocre day early that tempers all expectations, but it will be followed with strong results that cannot be ignored. A regular podium finisher is tough to dismiss, especially if he is beating his senior teammates. 

It will not be flashy streaks of victories, but Malukas wins on the days he is the clear best. On the days he is not the standout, he is leading that next group and collecting points in chunks and remaining at the top of the championship though he isn't pulling away from anyone. 

The end of the season falls in his favor with Gateway and the Milwaukee doubleheader making up 60% of the final five races. That is where Malukas strengthens his grip and pulls this one out. After a second and a third in his first two visits to Gateway, the third trip ends in victory. A top ten provides good insurance in Portland. He wins one of the Milwaukee races and finishes in the top five in the other and he enters Nashville with the championship lead and needing a good result to clinch it. 

It is a nervy finale, but Malukas drives smart all weekends and does just enough to claim the Astor Cup.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

With a better team around him, Malukas should finish better in the championship than 16th or 17th like his first two seasons. There is still a lot we do not know about Malukas and uncertainty over who he is as a driver. We will learn immensely about him this season and we will find out if he has it or if he doesn't. 

Point is, he shouldn't take a step back. McLaren should at least a step forward, but the question remains how big of a step? It is McLaren, a championship top ten finish feels like the minimum. Felix Rosenqvist, the predecessor in the #6 Chevrolet, was 12th in the championship with a pair of podium finishes last year. Malukas duplicating those results is practical, but Malukas could also be a little off that form. 

It will be tough to break the top ten, but somewhere between 11th and 15th in the championship with three to five top five finishes and eight to ten top ten finishes feels like the realistic step in Malukas' first year at McLaren.

Alexander Rossi - #7 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet

Numbers to Remember:

8: Races led in the 50 races since the start of the 2021 season

5: Of those races saw Rossi lead fewer than five laps

47.058: Percentage of lead lap finishes in 2023, the lowest of his career

99.247: Percentage of laps completed in 2023, the second highest of his career

What does a championship season look like for him?

It probably starts slowly and unassuming, like an Alexander Rossi season. Sixth, fourth, ninth, third, seventh. Nothing special but not bad. Pretty good. No one is threatened by it but most would take those results to start a season. Then he wins his second Indianapolis 500 when everyone's guard is down, everyone believes O'Ward is the McLaren driver destined to win, and then everyone acts like they were on the Alexander Rossi bandwagon from the start. We will all act unsurprised, but if we had a gun to our heads the night before the season started when asked how do we think Rossi's season would start, none of us would have come up with that as an answer.

From the championship lead, he continues to have good days, but he is Alexander Rossi and will stumble a little. Unlike other seasons, it will not be a prolonged dry spell. Rossi will recover as we get into July, win at Mid-Ohio, have his best weekend ever at Iowa and close it out with a top five finish at Toronto before the Olympic break. 

Ovals will not be his strong suit, but he gets the car home with good results. He maximizes points at Portland and Nashville, wins one of those and takes the championship that feels warranted.  

What does a realistic season look like for him?

We are facing a conundrum with Rossi's career because we are approaching a decade of him in IndyCar and he has failed to win a race in three of the last four seasons. It isn't that no great driver has ever gone on a lengthy slump, it is a matter of who is Rossi? A few years ago he was driver who when he won smashed the field. At the moment, he feels like a good driver who can get results but isn't quite the stone-cold killer we believed he was a few years ago. 

Can he win a race? Yes. Will he win a race? It cannot be a definitive yes. He can pull out top ten finishes, but we aren't seeing the driver who could pace the field on a regular basis. He cannot finish best among his team in a vast majority of the races. 

With Malukas in this team, Rossi should move into second in the fold easily. He should still be a top ten driver. If he can grow from year one at McLaren, he should be in contention more for podium finishes and top five finishes. That should help his championship position. What will remain trouble is keeping up with Patricio O'Ward. That alone can be the shortfall to a prestigious season. Slight improvement is reasonable, but three podium finishes, six top five finishes and 13 top ten finishes isn't going to make Rossi a championship driver. It likely will not get him back into the championship top five. Still good. Not quite great. 

The first round of the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series season will be the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg on March 10. Coverage will begin at noon on NBC and Peacock.

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Arrow McLaren's 2023 Season

Our antepenultimate IndyCar wrap-up takes us to a team that arguably was the most disappointing in 2023. Many things went right for Arrow McLaren this season, and it was getting regularly coverage. However, the team set lofty goals and missed on the most basic one in a season. In a year where teams that openly struggled won races, McLaren was shut out in IndyCar competition. No matter how you try to square it, this was a massive letdown for the group in papaya.

Patricio O'Ward

Carrying the McLaren flag into the 2023 season, O'Ward looked to ascend to a higher level this season, returning to being a championship contender after a slight step back in 2022. O'Ward flashed his skill in many races, and again showed why he remains one of IndyCar's stars for the future while also being a star of the present. However, this season went far from how O'Ward had planned.

What objectively was his best race?
Nobody had more runner-up finishes than O'Ward in 2023. The Mexican driver had four runner-up results, including two in the first two races, first at St. Petersburg and then at Texas. He didn't have to wait long for his third, which came in the Grand prix of Indianaplis the third race of the season. The fourth was a little longer of a wait. It didn't come until Gateway in August. 

What subjectively was his best race?

St. Petersburg and Texas were two races O'Ward practically had won, but the best of them all was Texas. O'Ward had run away from the field in the middle of the race and had lapped up to third while holding a seven-second lead over Josef Newgarden in second. The late cautions brought the field together and more players into the mix. O'Ward led 123 laps, but in the lap battle with Newgarden, Newgarden ended up ahead when the caution came out and O'Ward was second again. 

What objectively was his worst race?
A long pit stop due to the left rear tire not being secured at Detroit put O'Ward a lap down, and he raced like a mad man to get back on the lead lap. However, an aggressive move while passing Santino Ferrucci into the final corner put O'Ward into the barrier, ending his day in 26th.

What subjectively was his worst race?

O'Ward led the most laps in the Indianapolis 500 before an ambitious move for second on the inside of Marcus Ericsson into turn three spun O'Ward into the barrier with eight laps remaining. It was getting late in the race. There was still time left for a counter, but O'Ward made an eager move when he should not have. It cost him and that anger carried over to Detroit, where he made another mistake.

It was a pair of disappointing results and unraveled his season. He still ran well for the rest of the season, but he never posed another serious threat to the championship. 

Patricio O'Ward's 2023 Statistics

Championship Position: 4th (484 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 7
Top Fives: 9
Top Tens: 14
Laps Led: 189
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 10
Fast Twelves: 12
Average Start: 6.3529
Average Finish: 7.9412

Alexander Rossi

After seven seasons with Andretti Autosport, Rossi moved to take over the #7 Chevrolet for McLaren. Looking to compete for a championship, Rossi expected to be competing as the best of the McLaren drivers. That was never really the case. The results were good, but Rossi was rarely leading this trio.

What objectively was his best race?
The only podium finish of Rossi's season was third in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Rossi spent much of the race in the top five and he had the tires late in the race to take third away from Christian Lundgaard, who had started on pole position.

What subjectively was his best race?

It was a quiet fifth-place finish for Rossi in the Indianapolis 500 as he was the third-best McLaren car for most of the race but was still running in the top ten. O'Ward and Felix Rosenqvist were regularly ahead of Rossi. When both those drivers dropped out, Rossi stepped up and earned a respectable finish for the team.

What objectively was his worst race?
Rossi had two finishes of 22nd and in consecutive races. At Texas, Rossi had a collision with Kyle Kirkwood on pit lane after his first pit stop, and Rossi lost time for repairs. At Long Beach, Rossi was running in the top ten before a suspension failure on the final lap knocked him out of the race only a three corners from the finish. 

What subjectively was his worst race?

Long Beach was the worst of the two 22nd-place finish. Texas stunk because it was early and Rossi could have found himself in the mix late, but there was no guarantee. Long Becah was at least going to be a good bounce back from Texas. Instead, it was salt in the wound. 

Alexander Rossi's 2023 Statistics

Championship Position: 9th (375 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 4
Top Tens: 11
Laps Led: 8
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 9
Average Start: 11.353
Average Finish: 10.941

Felix Rosenqvist

Rosenqvist made a sizable improvement to his results in 2022 after a rough 2021 season. In a three-car lineup, Rosenqvist faced stiffer competition. There were days he held his own, but there were still streaky periods to the Swede's season. It wasn't terrible, but it was not quite what driver nor team was looking for. 

What objectively was his best race?
The caution being held at Portland for Agustín Canapino's spin meant Rosenqvist could make his final pit stop and move up to second instead of being one of the few cars trapped out before his final pit stop. This occurrence upset some drivers as Rosenqvist did pick up a few spots as the caution came before the Swede had to make an out-lap, meaning the likes of Scott Dixon and O'Ward lost positions. 

Rosenqvist was always going to finish in the top five and possibly finish on the podium. It was just a slightly better finish due to race control's decision.

What subjectively was his best race?

This is a little tough but I will say the second Iowa race, where Rosenqvist finished fourth. He was keeping pace was Josef Newgarden as Rosenqvist was in second. The late caution for Ed Carpenter’s incident cost Rosenqvist, as he dropped to fourth when Will Power had the better jump on the restart and Rosenqvist ran wide, allowing Álex Palou ahead. 

For a driver not known for his oval prowess, it was a good year going in circles for Rosenqvist.

What objectively was his worst race?
Rosenqvist's collision with the barrier and spin late in the Indianapolis 500 left him 27th despite running much of the race in the top ten and appearing to emerge as a late contender as the race counted down the final 100 miles.

What subjectively was his worst race?

It is Indianapolis because there is a world where Rosenqvist is in the top five battle late. He could have won, but it would have been difficult. Indianapolis was the best race of his IndyCar career until he had a bobble in turn one and slapped the barrier. He looked settled for this entire race and one slip cost him. 

Felix Rosenqvist's 2023 Statistics

Championship Position: 12th (324 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 2
Top Fives: 4
Top Tens: 7
Laps Led: 51
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 4
Fast Twelves: 11
Average Start: 8.7647
Average Finish: 14.706

An Early Look Ahead

McLaren cannot afford another winless season. I like to use this word sparingly. This was a failure for McLaren. It has been talking a big game and making big waves in IndyCar for a handful of years. To not win a race, especially when a borderline inept Andretti Autosport won twice and a sluggish Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing won one and probably should have won twice, is a terrible look for a McLaren organization that believes it can be an IndyCar disruptor. 

In all fairness, in most seasons, McLaren would have won at least twice. It would have won the season opener and these words would never have been considered being typed into the World Wide Web. But for all the team's misses, there are plenty of shortcomings that should raise concerns for the organization. 

McLaren led a combined 50 laps in the final 11 races of the season. It led 203 laps in the first six races. That isn't a minor change in form. The three cars went from leading just over a quarter of all the laps run in the first six races to leading only 3.448% of the final 1,450 laps run in the season. 

Changes are already happening. Engineer Craig Hampson is leaving the organization. Gavin Ward has a new role. Tony Kanaan is sporting director. David Malukas has replaced Rosenqvist. McLaren has formed a strategic alliance with Juncos Hollinger Racing. McLaren hasn't been afraid to shake things up. It is almost a yearly occurrence for this team. It has all the resources to figure it out and find success, but it cannot afford to waste time. 

O'Ward should be fine. This was a blip, but as we have seen O'Ward can crack under the pressure. Rossi didn't come close to being the factor we expected him to be in year one with McLaren. With Hampson leaving, Rossi will be working with another new engineer. Malukas is puzzling. The Illinois-native has shown great bursts in IndyCar, but his sophomore season was a slight step back from his rookie year. I understand good performances at Texas and Gateway are worthy of attention but he also finished 20th or worse in eight of 17 races in 2023. 

McLaren is reeling from the Álex Palou news. This time a year ago we were thinking there was a chance Palou could be with McLaren in 2023 but it was 100% certain for 2024. Flash-forward and Palou turned back on McLaren to remain with Ganassi and now McLaren is suing the Catalan driver for over $20 million in damages. Things change quickly, and despite what anyone says, Malukas was far from the team's #1 option to fill out the 2024 lineup. 

There will be plenty to keep an eye on this offseason let alone when next season begins. The biggest legal case over IndyCar employment is constantly developing, and it involves the most recognized team name globally in IndyCar and the current champion. It will be more difficult to not hear the news than to keep up with the case. We will wait to see how that plays out, but based on its on-track form, McLaren cannot afford a legal case to cause any further distraction. 

2023 IndyCar Team Preview: Arrow McLaren

It is a double IndyCar team preview week. With 47 days until the 2023 NTT IndyCar Series season takes the green flag on the streets of St. Petersburg, a team has a slightly modified look. It is just McLaren. No more SP. Arrow is still around, but no acronym is necessary. McLaren is here, and it is making its impression visible. There is much to say about its future, which may include a certain Spanish champion and will include Kyle Larson at the Indianapolis 500, but not until 2024, but McLaren is more than the future. It is a team ready for the present.

At First Glance... McLaren has what it takes to win the championship

Both McLaren drivers finished in the top ten of the championship last year and it has added another driver who was in the top ten. That doesn't sound spectacular, but after Patricio O'Ward was knocking on the door in 2020 and 2021, seeing the resurgence of Felix Rosenqvist last year and the history of Alexander Rossi, this three-headed monster should have one of its drivers making a serious push for the championship. 

O'Ward went into the final race of the 2021 season with a shot at the title but fell short. The Mexican driver has been a force since he arrived in IndyCar. Each year he has been pushing to win races and he has performed a few marvelous drives. Everyone expects a championship in his future and he is more than capable of pulling one off now. 

The rocky career of Felix Rosenqvist found new life in 2022 after it appeared he was set to be booted out the door. O'Ward got the better of the intra-team battle, but Rosenqvist kept O'Ward honest every step of the way. After a few seasons of searching, McLaren finally has a one-two punch in IndyCar. The Swede performed to a suitable level, keeping the rest of the field on its toes with his pace. 

Add to the equation Alexander Rossi and McLaren has strengthened its outfit with three hungry drivers capable for winning. For Rossi, this move is a turning a new page in IndyCar. After seven seasons with Andretti Autosport, an Indianapolis 500 victory and a few close calls at a championship, Rossi is making this move with his focus on the title. He said so himself. This move was about winning a championship, and in Rossi's eyes McLaren provided the best opportunity for the Californian's quest. 

In this IndyCar series, there has not been a non-Penske/Ganassi/Andretti champion since Panther Racing in 2002. This McLaren trio provides the best threat to end that streak in a long time. Everything is combining at the right time for it to happen. These three drivers are at the top of their game. McLaren is more than ready for the championship fight. It can hold its own against Penske and Ganassi, and it is arguably already ahead of Andretti. McLaren is prepared to go on a run. If it does it, no one should be surprised, and the championship will likely be going to the team in papaya. 

2022 Arrow McLaren SP Review

Wins: 2 (Barber, Iowa II)

Poles: 2 (Mid-Ohio, July IMS road course race)

Championship Finishes: 7th (Patricio O'Ward), 8th (Felix Rosenqvist)

Patricio O'Ward - #5 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet

Numbers to Remember:

162.333: Average number of laps led when competing as a full-time driver

4.333: Average number of podium finishes when competing as a full-time driver

7.667: Average number of top five finishes when competing as a full-time driver

What does a championship season look like for him?

Limiting those rough patches that always come up in his season where O'Ward has two or three consecutive races finishing 14th and 18th before getting back to the top five. Those really need to be eliminated, but he could survive with one of those in a season. A championship season would look like the best parts of this first three full-time seasons in IndyCar. 

It starts strong and O'Ward is on the podium early and at least in the top five. An early victory would give him a good boost. Instead of coming up short in the Indianapolis 500, O'Ward holds on in the closing stages and picks up a popular victory that could shake IndyCar's popularity. Off the momentum of a triumph in Indianapolis, he would become the first driver to win the race after the Indianapolis 500 since Juan Pablo Montoya in 2000. 

At that point, the championship is his. He will face a few counterattacks, but remain steady. Another victory would come in the final quarter of the season to firm up his championship. With a few other results going his way, he could claim the championship in Portland and make Laguna Seca a dead rubber.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

A championship is possible, but it will likely not be a runaway for O'Ward. He will probably win two or three times, a victory total champions normally end up with. He will have five to eight podium finishes, again in champion's territory. A vast majority of the races will be top ten results. It will all come down to if someone else is just a little bit better or if O'Ward is hitting the high end of all those categories. 

He could have a rough patch in the middle of the season and lose ground in the title. In 2021, O'Ward was leading the championship entering Portland and the final three races before one average day flipped the championship and gave control back to Álex Palou. Championships are occasionally decided on how high a driver's lowest day is. If O'Ward can prevent those days at the bottom of the order, a championship is within his reach.

Felix Rosenqvist - #6 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet

Numbers to Remember:

10.705: Average finish over 17 starts in the 2019 season

14.3214: Average finish over 28 starts between the 2020 and 2021 seasons

11.765: Average finish over 17 starts in the 2022 season

What does a championship season look like for him?

Winning the opening race of the season and setting the tone that he is the McLaren driver to beat. From there, he wins at Long Beach, two wins in the first three races and he has everyone's attention. Then he makes it two Swedish winners in as many years in the Indianapolis 500 and at that point we know the championship is firmly in his control. Just to boot, Rosenqvist wins in Detroit, has four victories in the first seven races and they can already start printing the championship merchandise. 

The summer is a little more average, but just when you think the door could be opening, he wins at Nashville while a bunch of other title rivals stumble and that kind of ends the season right there. Good days in the next three races clinch the title early and we are all wondering how the hell Felix Rosenqvist stomped the field. 

What does a realistic season look like for him?

Repeating 2022 would not be a bad result for Rosenqvist, but that could leave him third of the McLaren drivers and put him in the crosshairs for a harsh dismissal as McLaren has its sights set on other drivers for its IndyCar program. 

After his first four seasons in IndyCar, it is tough to pin down what Felix Rosenqvist we will get. Do we get the smooth driver that is great on worn tires and rough surfaces with constant top ten results or do we get the frazzled competitor that has good qualifying runs wasted and leave us scratching our heads? 

Victory is not unthinkable, but you wouldn't put your house on it. A championship run could happen, but would require an unlikely set of events happening to put him in that spot. You cannot rule out the very best for him, but you also cannot dismiss the very worst. Anywhere from sixth to 16th in the championship has an equal shot of happening. 

Alexander Rossi - #7 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet

Numbers to Remember:

1: Top five finish in the last 18 oval races

16.1667: Average finish in the last 18 oval races

7.473: Average finish in Rossi's first 19 oval starts

What does a championship season look like for him?

Like Rosenqvist's best case scenario, Rossi comes out of the gates and immediately shows he is the best driver at McLaren. It would almost feel like Josef Newgarden's 2017 season, Newgarden's first with Penske and the one where Newgarden pulled out his first championship. An early victory sets the tone for the year. Rossi is near spotless in the first quarter of the season with at least one victory and, after a few close calls, 2023 is the year of his second Indianapolis 500 victory. 

Focused and with a healthy cushion in the championship late, Rossi drives the rest of the season methodically, not overstepping the limit, but making calculated decisions. The team doesn't make any mistakes on set up. The car is always to his liking, which is putting him in top five positions. When the opportunity is on for a race victory, he takes it and closes out at least two more times over the summer. Incidents are avoided and there are at least two or three races where we see Rossi skip through an accident or hang back when things are going wrong. This allows him to maximize points. 

In the final races, Rossi is hitting his marks and not fighting from behind. He heads home to Laguna Seca only needing a tenth-place finish to lock up the title and finishes the year in his best form, qualifies in the top three and spends much of the race in a podium position, unlikely to fall much further than that and for the final 45 laps we know what is coming and it is Rossi lifting the Astor Cup to close the season. 

What does a realistic season look like for him?

I think we are going to see an Alexander Rossi that has been hidden for much of the previous three seasons. This will be a year of peak Rossi. The best of 2018 and 2019 coming back to life. But he will still have a tough foe within the organization. There will be races where the toughest hurdle in Rossi's way will be Patricio O'Ward and the toughest hurdle in O'Ward's way is Alexander Rossi. McLaren will love it, but the drivers will get frustrated. 

They will take points off of each other, all three McLaren drivers will take points from one another at some point this season. There could be a race where things boil over and, with this being a new group, a race is lost because somebody does not give an inch and the organization loses out. We could be hearing about a midseason drivers' meeting because too many points are slipping away. These are three brash drivers. They want to win, and they want to win now. They cannot all be champion this year. 

McLaren should push to have two drivers in the championship top five. Rossi should be one of those drivers going for it. 

The 2023 NTT IndyCar Series begins on Sunday March 5 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC and Peacock will have coverage of the race.

2022 IndyCar Team Preview: Arrow McLaren SP

We are moving back toward the front of the grid with the fourth IndyCar Team Preview. Arrow McLaren SP had a breakout season of sorts in 2021. After a solid 2020 season with Patricio O'Ward, the pairing went a step further in 2021. O'Ward picked up his first career victory and then scored his second. He led the championship for a few rounds and was a regular top five finisher. Unfortunately, O'Ward did not get the same top results late in the season, and damage suffered at Long Beach dropped him to third in the final championship standings.

While O'Ward led the way, his new teammate Felix Rosenqvist struggled in his first season with AMSP. Rosenqvist couldn't match his teammate's finishes, and a bad accident at Belle Isle sidelined the Swede for a few races. AMSP has kept this combination together with championship aspiration being obtainable, but it will require going a step further for all parties involved.

2021 Arrow McLaren SP Review

Wins: 2 (Texas, Belle Isle II)

Poles: 3 (Barber, Belle Isle I, August IMS road course race)

Championship Finishes: 3rd (Patricio O'Ward), 21st (Felix Rosenqvist), 31st (Juan Pablo Montoya), 42nd (Kevin Magnussen)

Patricio O'Ward - #5 Arrow Chevrolet

After ending 2020 as one of the most promising young drivers, O'Ward started 2021 asserting himself as a driver of the present, taking pole position at Barber. He led the opening stint, but tire preservation was his weak point and he finished fourth. Tires were a struggle at St. Petersburg, and he finished 19th. 

At Texas, O'Ward kept up his oval form and opened the weekend with a third-place finish. The next day, O'Ward ran at the front, and his aggressiveness paid off. He was able to take the lead in the final 25 laps and took his first career victory. 

His love-hate relationship with the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course continued with a 15th-place finish, but on the oval, O'Ward was a contender. He spent most of the race at the front and led. He was never too far from the lead but didn't quite have enough and finished fourth. The results remained positive at Belle Isle. Another pole position came in race one, but the frenetic nature of that race dropped him to third. He was looking at a top five finish in race two before a pair of late cautions. O'Ward had the legs late and made up positions. He worked his way to second and overtook Josef Newgarden with three laps to go for the lead. O'Ward held on to become the first repeat winner of the season. 

Top ten finishes followed at Road America and Mid-Ohio, but Nashville was a tough day and a pair of penalties limited O'Ward to 13th. He was on pole position again for the second IMS road course race, but again did not have the tire life when it mattered most and finished fifth. 

A runner-up result at Gateway gave him the championship lead and fortunate chaos at the start of Portland moved O'Ward from the back of the top ten to the lead at the start. He looked set to control the championship. But cautions and pit strategy went against O'Ward, and he dropped to 14th as Álex Palou won the race. At Laguna Seca, O'Ward was fifth, but Palou was second. O'Ward still had a chance at Long Beach and qualified ahead of Palou. But opening lap contact in the hairpin from Ed Jones derailed his title hopes and subsequent gearbox issues were the final nail in the coffin

Numbers to Remember:

12.6: Average finish on street courses in 2021.

39.473: Top five finish percentage in 38 starts.

2013: The last season to feature driver not from one of the "Big Three" teams in the top three in the championship before O'Ward did it last season. Before O'Ward, it was Simon Pagenaud with Schmidt Peterson Hamilton Motorsports.

What does a championship season look like for him?

O'Ward picks up where he left off in 2021. He doesn't have many, if any, off days. He wins early and he wins often. He starts the season with a victory at St. Petersburg or at least a podium result. He wins at Texas again. This time he pulls out at least a top ten finish in Long Beach and then he gets another podium in Barber.

In May, he gets at least a pair of top five finishes, and he has a top five in Belle Isle. He wins at Road America, finishes in the top ten at Mid-Ohio and Toronto. He wins one of two Iowa races and is in the top five of the other race. Either way, he extends his championship lead before arriving to Nashville. 

He gets a top ten in Nashville, a podium result at Gateway and then closes the season with top ten results in Portland and Laguna Seca because that is all he will need, and he will not have to be all that flashy.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

A championship is very realistic for O'Ward. He nearly had a hand firmly grasp on the trophy last season when Álex Palou slipped up and it looked like it was going to be O'Ward championship early at Portland. Then that race took a turn, O'Ward fell back, Palou moved forward, and the Mexican driver was chasing the Spaniard for the final two races.

O'Ward didn't make many mistakes in 2021. If anything, his worst results were out of his control. He hasn't been a liability on track at any point in his IndyCar career. That isn't going to change now. He could put together a five-victory, eight-podium, 13-top five finish season with every race ending in the top ten or him having only one result outside the top ten. 

Arrow McLaren SP is up for the challenge and kept up with Chip Ganassi Racing and Team Penske for the entire 2021 season. O'Ward was ahead of the Penske quartet for practically the entire season until the final race went sideways. 

There is room for improvement, notably tire management, but O'Ward can conquer that. If he does, he will be far more dangerous than he was last year, and everyone else will need to be close to perfect to take the title.

Felix Rosenqvist - #7 Arrow Chevrolet

After a good, but not great, sophomore season with Chip Ganassi Racing, Rosenqvist moved to AMSP looking to spark his IndyCar career in year three. Unfortunately, that spark set off an explosion in race one. Rosenqvist was caught in the opening lap incident and settled for 21st. Things were better, but not spectacular at St. Petersburg, finishing 12th. 

He could have finished in the top five in the first Texas race if it was not for accident avoidance in the pit lane, swerving into the grass to avoid Marcus Ericsson, who only had three tires on the car. Rosenqvist was forced to settle for 13th. Coincidentally, Rosenqvist lost his right rear tire after it was not properly secured in the second Texas race and finished 16th.

Rosenqvist was 17th and 27th in the two Indianapolis races. He led the Indianapolis 500 late with his aggressive fuel-save strategy, but he was 11 laps short. In the Saturday Belle Isle race, Rosenqvist's throttle stuck in the middle of turn six and he accelerated straight into the tire barrier, knocking the concrete barrier backward. The race was red-flagged for a lengthy period. He was taken to hospital and released the next day. However, he would miss the Sunday race and the Road America race that followed. 

Back in the car at Mid-Ohio, Rosenqvist was spun on the opening lap at the start and finished 23rd. His first good day came at Nashville, an eighth-place result, but he was in contention for a top five. It was not the start of a strong finish to 2021. He would finish sixth at Portland but was 13th or worse in the other four of five races to close out the year.

Numbers to Remember:

10: Top ten finishes in his rookie season in 2019.

7: Top ten finishes in the last two seasons (28 starts)

7: As in seventh best average finish among IndyCar regulars in 2019.

18: As in 18th best average finish among IndyCar regulars in 2021.

What does a championship season look like for him?

Rosenqvist, combined with his new engineer, the legendary Craig Hampson, knock it out of the box from the start. The #7 Arrow McLaren SP team takes victory off the crack of the bat in St. Petersburg, a solid top ten day follows in Texas, before another podium result in Long Beach and a top five in Barber. 

He takes his second victory in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis before having his best Indianapolis 500 with at least a top ten finish. He is on the podium again in Belle Isle, making it a perfect three podium visits in three street course starts. He wins again at Road America and has a top five in Mid-Ohio before getting another top five in Toronto and managing two top ten finishes in Iowa.

In Nashville, his street course prowess continues, and he gets his fourth victory of the season. He keeps his nose clean and finishes in the top ten at Gateway. He puts himself in a solid position for the championship at Portland with another top five result, but he ends with a flourish, his fifth victory of the season at Laguna Seca.

What does a realistic season look like for him?

The last two seasons have been rough for Rosenqvist, and 2021 was hopefully rock-bottom for the Swede. It wasn't just being thoroughly defeated within the AMSP battle, but Rosenqvist was banged up and missed two races. 

We have all seen enough from Rosenqvist to know he is better than 21st in the championship. A bounce back is more likely than him struggling again. Hampson taking the helm on the timing stand should help significantly, and Hampson alone could make Rosenqvist a championship contender. But I think this team will settle for top ten in the championship with at least one victory and being closer to O'Ward. 

 

It is going to be hard to beat O'Ward. Even if Rosenqvist repeated his rookie season in 2019, I am not sure that would be enough for Rosenqvist to top his teammate. Rosenqvist must save his ride and show he can at least be an adequate second driver in the team, one that AMSP cannot replace. He can achieve that. It's not the most glamorous thing ensuring a number two role, but it can save his career from a tailspin.  

A victory would go a long way, but if he is regularly in the top ten, challenging for a top ten championship position and shadowing O'Ward most of the year, Rosenqvist will earn a third season with this organization.

The 2022 NTT IndyCar Series season begins on Sunday February 27 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC's coverage will begin at noon ET.