It is a double IndyCar team preview week. With 47 days until the 2023 NTT IndyCar Series season takes the green flag on the streets of St. Petersburg, a team has a slightly modified look. It is just McLaren. No more SP. Arrow is still around, but no acronym is necessary. McLaren is here, and it is making its impression visible. There is much to say about its future, which may include a certain Spanish champion and will include Kyle Larson at the Indianapolis 500, but not until 2024, but McLaren is more than the future. It is a team ready for the present.
At First Glance... McLaren has what it takes to win the championship
Both McLaren drivers finished in the top ten of the championship last year and it has added another driver who was in the top ten. That doesn't sound spectacular, but after Patricio O'Ward was knocking on the door in 2020 and 2021, seeing the resurgence of Felix Rosenqvist last year and the history of Alexander Rossi, this three-headed monster should have one of its drivers making a serious push for the championship.
O'Ward went into the final race of the 2021 season with a shot at the title but fell short. The Mexican driver has been a force since he arrived in IndyCar. Each year he has been pushing to win races and he has performed a few marvelous drives. Everyone expects a championship in his future and he is more than capable of pulling one off now.
The rocky career of Felix Rosenqvist found new life in 2022 after it appeared he was set to be booted out the door. O'Ward got the better of the intra-team battle, but Rosenqvist kept O'Ward honest every step of the way. After a few seasons of searching, McLaren finally has a one-two punch in IndyCar. The Swede performed to a suitable level, keeping the rest of the field on its toes with his pace.
Add to the equation Alexander Rossi and McLaren has strengthened its outfit with three hungry drivers capable for winning. For Rossi, this move is a turning a new page in IndyCar. After seven seasons with Andretti Autosport, an Indianapolis 500 victory and a few close calls at a championship, Rossi is making this move with his focus on the title. He said so himself. This move was about winning a championship, and in Rossi's eyes McLaren provided the best opportunity for the Californian's quest.
In this IndyCar series, there has not been a non-Penske/Ganassi/Andretti champion since Panther Racing in 2002. This McLaren trio provides the best threat to end that streak in a long time. Everything is combining at the right time for it to happen. These three drivers are at the top of their game. McLaren is more than ready for the championship fight. It can hold its own against Penske and Ganassi, and it is arguably already ahead of Andretti. McLaren is prepared to go on a run. If it does it, no one should be surprised, and the championship will likely be going to the team in papaya.
2022 Arrow McLaren SP Review
Wins: 2 (Barber, Iowa II)
Poles: 2 (Mid-Ohio, July IMS road course race)
Championship Finishes: 7th (Patricio O'Ward), 8th (Felix Rosenqvist)
Patricio O'Ward - #5 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
162.333: Average number of laps led when competing as a full-time driver
4.333: Average number of podium finishes when competing as a full-time driver
7.667: Average number of top five finishes when competing as a full-time driver
What does a championship season look like for him?
Limiting those rough patches that always come up in his season where O'Ward has two or three consecutive races finishing 14th and 18th before getting back to the top five. Those really need to be eliminated, but he could survive with one of those in a season. A championship season would look like the best parts of this first three full-time seasons in IndyCar.
It starts strong and O'Ward is on the podium early and at least in the top five. An early victory would give him a good boost. Instead of coming up short in the Indianapolis 500, O'Ward holds on in the closing stages and picks up a popular victory that could shake IndyCar's popularity. Off the momentum of a triumph in Indianapolis, he would become the first driver to win the race after the Indianapolis 500 since Juan Pablo Montoya in 2000.
At that point, the championship is his. He will face a few counterattacks, but remain steady. Another victory would come in the final quarter of the season to firm up his championship. With a few other results going his way, he could claim the championship in Portland and make Laguna Seca a dead rubber.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
A championship is possible, but it will likely not be a runaway for O'Ward. He will probably win two or three times, a victory total champions normally end up with. He will have five to eight podium finishes, again in champion's territory. A vast majority of the races will be top ten results. It will all come down to if someone else is just a little bit better or if O'Ward is hitting the high end of all those categories.
He could have a rough patch in the middle of the season and lose ground in the title. In 2021, O'Ward was leading the championship entering Portland and the final three races before one average day flipped the championship and gave control back to Álex Palou. Championships are occasionally decided on how high a driver's lowest day is. If O'Ward can prevent those days at the bottom of the order, a championship is within his reach.
Felix Rosenqvist - #6 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
10.705: Average finish over 17 starts in the 2019 season
14.3214: Average finish over 28 starts between the 2020 and 2021 seasons
11.765: Average finish over 17 starts in the 2022 season
What does a championship season look like for him?
Winning the opening race of the season and setting the tone that he is the McLaren driver to beat. From there, he wins at Long Beach, two wins in the first three races and he has everyone's attention. Then he makes it two Swedish winners in as many years in the Indianapolis 500 and at that point we know the championship is firmly in his control. Just to boot, Rosenqvist wins in Detroit, has four victories in the first seven races and they can already start printing the championship merchandise.
The summer is a little more average, but just when you think the door could be opening, he wins at Nashville while a bunch of other title rivals stumble and that kind of ends the season right there. Good days in the next three races clinch the title early and we are all wondering how the hell Felix Rosenqvist stomped the field.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Repeating 2022 would not be a bad result for Rosenqvist, but that could leave him third of the McLaren drivers and put him in the crosshairs for a harsh dismissal as McLaren has its sights set on other drivers for its IndyCar program.
After his first four seasons in IndyCar, it is tough to pin down what Felix Rosenqvist we will get. Do we get the smooth driver that is great on worn tires and rough surfaces with constant top ten results or do we get the frazzled competitor that has good qualifying runs wasted and leave us scratching our heads?
Victory is not unthinkable, but you wouldn't put your house on it. A championship run could happen, but would require an unlikely set of events happening to put him in that spot. You cannot rule out the very best for him, but you also cannot dismiss the very worst. Anywhere from sixth to 16th in the championship has an equal shot of happening.
Alexander Rossi - #7 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
1: Top five finish in the last 18 oval races
16.1667: Average finish in the last 18 oval races
7.473: Average finish in Rossi's first 19 oval starts
What does a championship season look like for him?
Like Rosenqvist's best case scenario, Rossi comes out of the gates and immediately shows he is the best driver at McLaren. It would almost feel like Josef Newgarden's 2017 season, Newgarden's first with Penske and the one where Newgarden pulled out his first championship. An early victory sets the tone for the year. Rossi is near spotless in the first quarter of the season with at least one victory and, after a few close calls, 2023 is the year of his second Indianapolis 500 victory.
Focused and with a healthy cushion in the championship late, Rossi drives the rest of the season methodically, not overstepping the limit, but making calculated decisions. The team doesn't make any mistakes on set up. The car is always to his liking, which is putting him in top five positions. When the opportunity is on for a race victory, he takes it and closes out at least two more times over the summer. Incidents are avoided and there are at least two or three races where we see Rossi skip through an accident or hang back when things are going wrong. This allows him to maximize points.
In the final races, Rossi is hitting his marks and not fighting from behind. He heads home to Laguna Seca only needing a tenth-place finish to lock up the title and finishes the year in his best form, qualifies in the top three and spends much of the race in a podium position, unlikely to fall much further than that and for the final 45 laps we know what is coming and it is Rossi lifting the Astor Cup to close the season.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
I think we are going to see an Alexander Rossi that has been hidden for much of the previous three seasons. This will be a year of peak Rossi. The best of 2018 and 2019 coming back to life. But he will still have a tough foe within the organization. There will be races where the toughest hurdle in Rossi's way will be Patricio O'Ward and the toughest hurdle in O'Ward's way is Alexander Rossi. McLaren will love it, but the drivers will get frustrated.
They will take points off of each other, all three McLaren drivers will take points from one another at some point this season. There could be a race where things boil over and, with this being a new group, a race is lost because somebody does not give an inch and the organization loses out. We could be hearing about a midseason drivers' meeting because too many points are slipping away. These are three brash drivers. They want to win, and they want to win now. They cannot all be champion this year.
McLaren should push to have two drivers in the championship top five. Rossi should be one of those drivers going for it.
The 2023 NTT IndyCar Series begins on Sunday March 5 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC and Peacock will have coverage of the race.
