First Impressions: Mid-Ohio 2026

1. Arrow McLaren is flying high in IndyCar. After sweeping the front row with Christian Lundgaard and Patricio O'Ward for the Honda 200 from Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course, McLaren controlled the race, and while Lundgaard held the lead for the first 41 laps, briefly running wide cost Lundgaard time and it allowed O'Ward to pounce and take the lead. From there, O'Ward held the point and held off Lundgaard to pick up his first victory of the season, the tenth of O'Ward's career, and O'Ward led McLaren's first 1-2 in IndyCar.

O'Ward took advantage of the opportunity and from there he never let go. O'Ward made all the right moves with traffic and had the better car in the middle two stints. It allowed O'Ward to open a gap and it gave him breathing room in the final stint. Lundgaard put up a challenge and charged from over four seconds back after the final round of pit stops to within a second as the laps dwindled, but the car was gone from Lundgaard at that point. The Dane could not overcome that last bit of the deficit. O'Ward had to remain precise, and he kept all four wheels on the track to bring the #5 Chevrolet home in first. 

This has been a good season for O'Ward. He has regularly been finishing in the top five. Those just haven't been podium finishes or victories. McLaren had the speed and O'Ward did not waste this moment. A championship push will require more than this. It is still a little far out. The real fight will be for best in the team. He has work to do to claim that, and a teammate that likely is going to be defeated easily.

2. It is easy to claim this is a failure for Christian Lundgaard, especially in light of his release from Arrow McLaren at the end of this season despite winning twice and being in the top five of the championship after ten races. Winning pole position was a statement. Winning the race would have been an emphatic one. O'Ward improved as the race went along, and Lundgaard took second. It got away from him, but he didn't cough it up over a silly mistake. 

There was a lot of race to run after O'Ward took the lead, and if O'Ward had the better car, he was likely going to find his way through, even if it was through a pit cycle. 

Lundgaard did gather himself and make a late charge. He didn't continue to lose time to O'Ward. He kept O'Ward honest. Lundgaard has two victories and he has two runner-up finishes on permanent road courses. There is still Portland and Laguna Seca to go, and two street courses, a discipline where Lundgaard has raced well. It will not be easy for O'Ward to finish this season as the top McLaren driver, and Lundgaard will make sure it will not be easy either.

3. Kyle Kirkwood stopped early to end the first stint, and it was what vaulted him into the podium position in third. Kirkwood was able to run a little harder in the second stint as others still had not made their first stop, and he likely benefitted from the leaders catching traffic while he was pulling out fast laps. The leaders didn't have enough traffic slow them down where it turned into Kirkwood's favor of pulling out a victory, but he was within 2.5 seconds at the finish. Kirkwood had speed to match the McLaren, as we saw in the closing laps.

The better news is Kirkwood's strategy put him ahead of Álex Palou, not by much, but it could have been worse. It could have been points lost. Palou was starting two spots ahead of Kirkwood in this one. This was a good turnaround from a rather underwhelming qualifying effort. Kirkwood will need to take out bigger chunks in the championship, but five points gained is a start.

4. Rinus VeeKay was on the identical strategy to Kirkwood, and VeeKay was on it despite starting four spots better on the grid. That was a great call for Juncos Hollinger Racing. Starting sixth did not prevent the team from taking a  minor risk. It did not follow the leaders, and VeeKay made up ground with this call. He finished ahead of the three drivers that started immediately ahead of him. He was ahead of Kirkwood until the final pit stop, and that is when VeeKay lost the spot through the pit cycle. Fourth is still an impressive result for this group. 

5. Álex Palou didn't run as long as the leaders on the first stint, but he did not stop as early as Kirkwood and VeeKay, and Palou ended up somewhere in-between. He gained ground but not as much as others. It was still a fifth-place finish from eighth. Palou lost five points to Kirkwood. He lost 12 points to Lundgaard.

It isn't a concern for Palou until it is a regular thing. He has been fifth in the last two races. Kirkwood's average finish over the last two races is 6.5. Lundgaard is still more than a race behind Palou. David Malukas has yet to win a race. O'Ward is still 94 points back. If Palou keeps finishing fifth, he will be fine, and we know he is going to finish better than fifth multiple times over the final seven races. We must see more from the field to think anyone can beat Palou. Don't diminish finishing fifth. Most are still not beating Palou on a regular basis.

6. Will Power drove well to finish sixth. Power did stop on lap 13, a lap before Palou and four and three laps after Kirkwood and VeeKay respectively. The strategy didn't quite work out for Power. Running a little longer on the alternate tire to open the race is what cost him those spots to Kirkwood and VeeKay, but Power still drove a decent race. Power passed Rasmussen and Malukas after his final pit stop to gain a few spots. It is a good result for Power. He now has three consecutive top ten finishes after having one in the first eight races. He looked good all weekend.

7. We do not see Christian Rasmussen run this competitively on road and street courses. Rasmussen dropped from fifth to seventh, only his third career top ten finish on a road or street course. He spent the entire race in the top ten and did not make a costly mistake. That is progress. We have seen Rasmussen make mistakes and hurt his own results. He didn't do that today. It can be better, but Rasmussen entered today 22nd in the championship. He couldn't afford to lose points this weekend. 

8. A bobble in the pit lane cost David Malukas a probable top five and he was eighth at the finish. This wasn't on Malukas. I think the strategy wasn't going to get him on the podium. I think it would have been a closer battle between Malukas and Power for sixth if Malukas didn't have that issue. Maybe he is challenging Palou for fifth, but that was the best Malukas' day was going to be today. This was still Malukas' third consecutive top ten finish and his ninth of the season. He did drop to fourth in the championship, partially because of how well Kirkwood and Lundgaard ran. Malukas is doing fine. 

9. Josef Newgarden didn't do much, starting and finishing ninth. That could be a significant achievement considering Newgarden is still banged up from his Indianapolis 500 accident, and in the road and street course races between then and now, he has looked slow and struggled for results. Qualifying in the top ten and finishing in the top ten on speed is a sign of progress even if he made up zero positions from where he started. 

10. Nolan Siegel quietly made the top ten, picking up a few spots. It wasn't the flashiest race, but Siegel made up ground, and he made it a triple top ten day for McLaren, the team's first since Barber last year, and only the team's fifth since it expanded to a three-car operation in 2023. This was the 62nd race since then. This year has been an improvement for Siegel. We are starting to see the results, and he probably should have had a top ten at Road America as well. He is also out the door with Lundgaard at the end of the season. It didn't feel as harsh to Siegel.

11. Outside the top ten, not much changed. Caio Collet started and finished 11th. Graham Rahal started and finished 12th. Felix Rosenqvist started and finished 13th. Collet was pushing for a top ten. Rahal and Rosenqvist didn't really push for a top ten. These aren't the worst days for these drivers, but they aren't spectacular either. 

It is good for Collet, and he has been in good form for the last month. Rahal probably wishes he improved. It is good he didn't lose ground. Rosenqvist should have made up ground. It felt like he was going to, as he has run well at Mid-Ohio previously. It looks worse for Rosenqvist when you consider what his teammate did.

12. Marcus Armstrong did make some moves today, getting up to 14th from 24th on the grid, and in a caution-free race while not going off-strategy. Armstrong stopped essentially with the leaders each time. It is a recovery drive from Armstrong and the team. He got caught out in qualifying and was further behind the eight-ball than he probably should have been. The pit strategy fascinates me the most. Armstrong didn't stop on lap nine or lap ten or lap 15 and benefit from going a little off-strategy. It makes his performance more impressive.

13. Kyffin Simpson went from 18th to 15th. Not much happened there. 

14. Let's cover some New Zealanders. An engine change for Scott McLaughlin during the morning warm-up saw McLaughlin take a six-grid spot penalty and it dropped him to 23rd starting spot. He ended up finishing seven spots better than where he started. He made up the penalty, but there was not much more he could do.

Scott Dixon started 22nd, and he made a few spots early, but he was bumped and banged into, notable from Alexander Rossi, which earned Rossi a penalty. Marcus Ericsson then made contact with Dixon and also took a penalty. Those instances of contact weren't why Dixon finished 17th. He wasn't good this weekend. That is unusual. We may need to have a deeper conversation about Scott Dixon. He stopped on lap seven, but the speed wasn't there for him to make up spots, and then everyone ended up running a three-stop race. There was no benefit to trying to run hard and make an extra stop.

15. Let's get through the field. Louis Foster and Santino Ferrucci did nothing and were 18th and 19th.

16. I don't think Rossi's contact with Dixon warranted a two-spot penalty. I think Ericsson's contact was arguably penalty. 

Rossi ran wide and nudged Dixon. After Graham Rahal's contact with Will Power, I see how they are calling it a penalty. At some point, there must be incidental contact. It wasn't the worst contact in the world. If that is a penalty, we are going to see a half-dozen penalties a race. Rossi never show good pace in this one. That is the bigger problem than the penalty he took. 

Ericsson had made the passed and then pinched Dixon. That was unnecessary from Ericsson, and he was likely driving frustrated at that point. Ericsson stalled on his first pit stop and it took him out of a top ten position. That is what shuffled him to the back-half of the grid. He could't afford that error. 

17. We have Sting Ray Robb, Romain Grosjean, Mick Schumacher and Dennis Hauger rounding out the field. Twenty-second is where Robb lives. There is no surprise there. Dale Coyne Racing didn't have it this weekend. Hauger may have never recovered from his accident in Saturday morning practice. This was a weekend to forget for the organization. This season is a step back, which didn't feel likely at the start of the seaosn.

Schumacher was sandwiched between the Coyne drivers in 24th. 

There is no way Schumacher is this bad, right? I know he didn't light the world on fire in Formula One and he is driving for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, which has been an anchor for drivers, but he cannot finish in the top fifteen and he cannot finish ahead of Sting Ray Robb, and Schumacher was competitive with the likes of Lundgaard and Armstrong in Formula Two. All these tracks are new for Schumacher, but it cannot be that big of a learning curve for him. That injured wrist from St. Petersburg cannot be this debilitating... right? 

18. We get a week off, and then IndyCar will follow the World Cup Final with a 400-mile, 300-lap race at Nashville SuperSpeedway. At least we have plans for a Sunday evening a fortnight from now.

Morning Warm-Up: Mid-Ohio 2026

Christian Lundgaard scored pole position at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course with a lap at 64.8396 seconds during a weather-delayed qualifying session, and Lundgaard will lead an all-Arrow McLaren front row for the Honda 2000. This is the fourth pole position of the Dane's career. The only time he has won from pole position was at Toronto in 2023. Lundgaard won that race with 54 of 85 laps led. Lundgaard is attempting to score four consecutive top ten finishes for the first time since his first four races with Arrow McLaren last season. A second consecutive victory would be the first for Arrow McLaren since the famed organization returned to IndyCar competition in 2020. The last time the team won consecutive races was on April 22, 1979 when Johnny Rutherford swept a doubleheader at Atlanta. 

Patricio O'Ward was 0.0253 seconds off his McLaren teammate, and this is the first time Arrow McLaren has swept the front row for an IndyCar race since last year at Thermal Club where O'Ward started first and Lundgaard started second. These two did qualify first and second at Portland last year, but Lundgaard was relegated to seventh due to a grid penalty for an engine change. With finishes of 11th and 12th in the last two races, O'Ward is attempting to avoid three consecutive finishes outside the top ten since Toronto, Gateway and Portland in 2024. He has finished in the top five in the last two Mid-Ohio races, including winning from second in 2024.

Will Power was 0.0382 seconds off pole position, and Power will start third. It is only his third top five start of the season. Fresh off a third at Road America, Power has not had consecutive podium finishes since he won at Portland and was second at Milwaukee in 2024. Power has eight podium finishes in 18 Mid-Ohio starts. That is tied for second-most at the circuit with Ohio's Bobby Rahal. Only Scott Dixon has more podium finishes at this track with nine.

David Malukas made it four cars covered by 0.0687 seconds in the final round of qualifying, as Malukas was within a tenth of pole position, but he will still start on the outside of row two. Across the first three permanent road course races, Malukas has an average finish 2.667 with runner-up finishes in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and Road America. Malukas' first career top ten finish came at Mid-Ohio in 2022. He was ninth and he finished sixth the following year. That remains Malukas' best finish at this circuit. 

For the first time in his IndyCar career, Christian Rasmussen is starting in the top five. Rasmussen ended up 0.3773 seconds off pole position, but it is the Dane's first career top five start in his 42nd career start. His previous best starting position was eighth. His first top ten start was eighth at Mid-Ohio in 2024. Rasmussen has finished outside the top twenty in four of the last five races, three of which have been retirements due to mechanical issues.

Rinus VeeKay made it to the Fast Six for the first time since Detroit last year while driving for Dale Coyne Racing, and VeeKay will start sixth at Mid-Ohio. This is the first time a Juncos Hollinger Racing driver has made the Fast Six since Romain Grosjean qualified fifth for Toronto in 2024. This is VeeKay's best starting position ever at Mid-Ohio. He had started 11th or worse in six consecutive races from this circuit. VeeKay has finished better than his starting position in five consecutive races and in eight of the first ten races this season.

Marcus Ericsson starts seventh, as Ericsson was 0.0109 seconds from advancing to the final round of qualifying. This is the fourth consecutive Mid-Ohio race where Ericsson is starting in the top ten. This is Ericsson's sixth time starting in the top ten this season. In four of his first five top ten starts, he finished worse than his starting position. The exception is Ericsson going from tenth to eighth at Detroit. He has four top ten finishes in the last six Mid-Ohio races.

Álex Palou's pole-streak ended at five consecutive races as Palou could not make it out of round two at Mid-Ohio. Palou missed out by 0.0244 seconds from advancing. He had started eight consecutive races from a top-three starting position. This is his worst starting position on a road or street course since he started eighth at St. Petersburg in 2025. Palou did win that St. Petersburg race. Palou has five consecutive podium finishes at Mid-Ohio. His next podium finish will be the 50th of his career.

Josef Newgarden was only 0.0333 seconds from advancing to the Fast Six, but Newgarden will start ninth instead. This matches Newgarden's best starting spot on a road/street cours this season. He started ninth at Barber Motorsports Park. After his penalty for avoidable contact with Nolan Siegel at Road America, Newgarden was relegated to 22nd in the final results. It was his second finish outside the top twenty this season. Through the first ten races of 2025, he had five finishes outside the top twenty, including 27th at Mid-Ohio.

Kyle Kirkwood rounds out the top ten as Kirkwood was 0.0857 seconds from getting out of round two. In 18 starts in the month of July, Kirkwood has only one top five finish. He was second in the 2024 Toronto race. While he had five top five finishes to open the 2026 season, Kirkwood has one top five finish in the last five races. Kirkwood's best Mid-Ohio finish is eighth, which is where he has finished the last two years.

Caio Collet was just over a tenth of a second, 0.1025 seconds from advancing, and he will start 11th. This is the second consecutive race Collet is starting inside the top twelve. He had started outside the top twelve in eight of the first nine races of the season. Collet's first victory in Indy Lights came at Mid-Ohio in 2024. He was second at the track in last year's Indy Lights race.

Graham Rahal is on the outside of row six for his home race from Mid-Ohio. Though he made it out of the first round of qualifying, this is the fifth consecutive race Rahal is starting outside the top ten.With consecutive finishes of 23rd, Rahal is looking to avoid three consecutive finishes outside the top twenty for the first time since Edmonton, Mid-Ohio and Loudon in 2011. Rahal enters this race having not won in his last 151 starts.

Felix Rosenqvist fell 0.0130 seconds shy of making it out of group one during the first round of qualifying. This will place the Swede 13th on the grid. He had started one one of the first two rows in five of the last six races. Rosenqvist's only top five finish at Mid-Ohio was his runner-up finish as a rookie in 2019 to Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Scott Dixon. Rosenqvist's most recent top five on a permanent road course was fifth at Thermal Club last year.

Nolan Siegel missed out on making it to round two by 0.0242 seconds, and Siegel will start 14th as the first of six drivers to benefit from a grid penalty to Sting Ray Robb. This is Siegel's third time in the last four races starting in the top fifteen. He only started in the top fifteen for two of the first seven races. After opening the season finishing in the top twenty for seven of the first eight races, Siegel has finished 24th and 21st in the last two events.

Mick Schumacher slides up to 15th starting position after being 0.0544 seconds from advancing out of group two. This is Schumacher's best starting position on a road or street circuit, and it is his first time starting in the top fifteen since he was fourth at Phoenix, his first oval start. Schumacher is still looking for his first top fifteen finish in IndyCar. He was 16th and 17th in the last two races.

Scott McLaughlin will start 16th, his second consecutive year starting outside the top fifteen at Mid-Ohio. He started 21st last year. Prior to McLaughlin's 23rd-place finish in last year's race due to a tire delaminating, he had three consecutive top five finishes at the circuit, including a victory in 2022. McLaughlin has not finished in the top ten after starting outside the top fifteen on a road/street course since he went 20th to seventh at Portland in 2024.

Alexander Rossi takes the inside of row nine. This is only the second time Rossi failed to make it out of the first round of qualifying at Mid-Ohio. His previous worst starting position at this circuit was 13th in 2023. Mid-Ohio marks Rossi's 175th start. He will be the 40th driver to reach this milestone. In the last race, Rossi went from 25th to sixth at Road America.

Louis Foster rolls off from 18th starting position, and Foster is also 18th in the championship. This is the fourth time in five races Foster is starting outside the top fifteen. He went from 23rd to 14th at Road America two weeks ago. Last season, Foster finished 14th in each of the first three races of July. He started sixth in this race last year before dropping to 14th.

Kyffin Simpson is starting 19th for the second consecutive race. This year, Simpson enters Mid-Ohio fresh off fourth at Road America. Last year, Simpson had a finish of sixth at Road America before finishing tenth at Mid-Ohio. In each of the two races Simpson has started 19th, he has finished in the top ten. He went from 19th to tenth at Phoenix.

Sting Ray Robb was 0.0080 seconds from advancing from the second qualifying group in round one, but a six-spot grid penalty for taking on his fifth engine of the season relegate Robb to 20th starting position. This is his best start since 13th at Long Beach. In three Mid-Ohio starts, Robb has an average finish of 18.667. In the last two races, he has finished 19th on both occasions. 

Romain Grosjean will roll off from 21st starting position. This is the fourth time Grosjean is starting outside the top twenty. He did go from 24th to ninth in the Indianapolis 500. Though he was seventh in his first Mid-Ohio start in 2021, Grosjean has an average finish of 16th at the circuit with two results outside the top twenty.  

Santino Ferrucci matches his worst starting position of the season in 22nd. Ferrucci started 22nd at Long Beach and Detroit. With a ninth-place finish at Road America, Ferrucci is looking for his second consecutive top ten finish. Ferrucci has had consecutive top ten finishes in five of his previous eight seasons competing in IndyCar, but in two of those seasons, he started four races of fewer.

Scott Dixon was issued an interference penalty after impeding Romain Grosjean on multiple qualifying laps during the first qualifying group. This cost Dixon his fastest two laps and dropped Dixon to 23rd on the grid. Dixon did win from 22nd starting position at Mid-Ohio in 2015. With one more Mid-Ohio victory, Dixon would become the second driver in IndyCar history to win at least eight races at one track. A.J. Foyt won 12 times at Trenton Speedway in 41 starts. 

Marcus Armstrong will start Mid-Ohio where he finished Road America, in 24th, except Armstrong is not starting 24th due to an engine failure. This is his worst starting position of the season and his worst starting position since he was 30th for last year's Indianapolis 500. Armstrong had started in the top ten in the previous three races. This is only the fifth time he has started outside the top twenty in his IndyCar career.

Dennis Hauger takes last on the grid. Hauger suffered an accident in the second practice session on Saturday morning. Hauger is one of five drivers entered who has won at Mid-Ohio in Indy Lights. The only two drivers to win at the circuit in both Indy Lights and IndyCar are Paul Tracy and Patricio O'Ward.

Fox's coverage of the Honda 200 from Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course will begin at 12:30 p.m. ET with green flag scheduled for 12:52 p.m. ET. The race is scheduled for 90 laps.

Track Walk: Mid-Ohio 2026

The 11th round of the 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season has the series spending Independence Day weekend from Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course. This is the sixth consecutive year IndyCar has spent this holiday in Lexington, Ohio. Each year, there has been a different winner, in fact, there has been a different winner in all seven Mid-Ohio races since the introduction of the aeroscreen. Through the first ten races of this season, there have been five different winners. Each winner ranks in the top eight of the championship.

Coverage

Time: Coverage begins at 12:30 p.m. ET on Sunday July 5 with green flag scheduled for 12:52 p.m. ET.
Channel: Fox
Announcers: Will Buxton, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Kevin Lee, Georgia Henneberry and Jack Harvey will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule

Friday:

First Practice: 3:05 p.m. ET (75 minutes)

Saturday:

Second Practice: 10:05 a.m. ET (75 minutes)
Qualifying: 2:30 p.m. ET 
Sunday:
Warm-up: 9:35 a.m. ET (30 minutes)
Race: 12:52 p.m. ET (90 laps)

Lucky Lundgaard

Maybe it is better to be lucky than good. Maybe it is good to be both. Christian Lundgaard straddles that divide. 

At Road America, Lundgaard was last after the opening lap due to front wing damage from contact with Scott Dixon. The pit stop for repairs put the Dane close to a lap down. However, that misfortune, the cautions that fell and the pit strategy that followed allowed Lundgaard to be position for a podium finish, and it put Lundgaard in the right position to benefit when another driver stumbled. Marcus Armstrong lost his engine, and Lundgaard was there to inherit the lead. 

The record book will say it was a victory from 12th on the grid, only the second time a Road America race has been won from outside the top ten, but it was for more difficult than that. 

The triumph was Lundgaard's second of the season, and this one kept him fourth in the championship. It was his second victory of the season when combined with the Grand Prix of Indianapolis in May. Since the end of March, Lundgaard has been alternating top five finishes, and two of those results in-between have been finishes outside the top fifteen. The good is counterweighting the bad. Lundgaard is 40 points clear of his Arrow McLaren teammate Patricio O'Ward, who has six top five finishes this season, tied for the second-most in IndyCar. 

Lundgaard has been pulling out some incredible results. For starters, he has not been qualifying well. Only twice this season has he started in the top five. On both occasions, he finished in the top five, including going from fourth to first in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Road America was the fourth time this season Lundgaard has made up at least eight spots from his grid position. In three of those he has driven into the top five. His average starting position is 12.2, tenth-best in IndyCar, but his average finish is 7.9, fourth-best in IndyCar.

In each of the three natural-terrain road course races this season, Lundgaard has finished second, first and first. Even Álex Palou is not quite keeping up with that output, though Palou has finished first, fifth and fifth in those three events, and Palou has started on pole position for all three events. 

Now Lundgaard will look to break a pattern. He has not had consecutive top five finishes since last season when he was runner-up in consecutive races at Laguna Seca and Portland. Back in May, Lundgaard became the first Arrow McLaren not named Patricio O'Ward to win for the organization since its IndyCar return in 2020. Lundgaard has now won twice, and he will look to become the first McLaren driver to win consecutive IndyCar race since Johnny Rutherford swept the 1979 CART doubleheader at Atlanta. It would be the first time a McLaren driver won consecutive races at different tracks since 1977 when Rutherford won at Texas World Speedway and Milwaukee.

In four Mid-Ohio starts, Lundgaard's worst finish is 11th. He has twice finished in the top five, including last year when he was third after starting second.

Armstrong Seeking Redemption

It will be difficult for Marcus Armstrong to shake the Road America result. Leading with only four laps remaining, Armstrong's engine ran out of steam and brought the New Zealander to a halt. Instead of standing on the top step of the podium, Armstrong was relegated to 24th in the record books with 14 laps led from third grid position. 

It was a rather tough punch to the gut for Armstrong. While he does have a pair of top five finishes and five total top ten finishes, he has been on the edge of victory. Armstrong led the field to the green flag for the final restart, a one-lap dash at the Indianapolis 500. He spent much of that lap side-by-side with his Meyer Shank Racing teammate Felix Rosenqvist. At the checkered flag, Rosenqvist was first by 0.0233 seconds. Armstrong had dropped to fifth, falling only 0.0155 behind fellow Kiwi Scott McLaughlin for third. 

There is plenty for Armstrong to be positive about. He has an average starting position of 9.9, only one of seven drivers to average a starting position better than tenth through the first ten races. He is ahead of the likes of Kyle Kirkwood, Scott Dixon, Christian Lundgaard, Josef Newgarden and Will Power in this category. 

Regardless, losing as he did at Road America is quite a shock, and history shows first time winners are usually coming off an encouraging result.

Ten of the last 11 first-time winners in IndyCar finished in the top fifteen in the race prior to their first career victory. The only exception is Kirkwood, who was 27th at Texas in 2023 after an accident before he took victory at Long Beach in the following race. 

Of those other ten first-time winners, five had finished in the top ten of the race prior, two had finished 11th, one was 12th, another was 13th and the other was 15th. Even with those driver, none of them were leading and within five laps of victory in the race prior to their first career victory. Looking back since the CART-USAC split in 1979, there has never been an instance of a driver, who was looking for a first career victory, losing the lead with five laps or fewer remaining, and then winning the next race. 

Armstrong has started in the top ten in the last three races, but he has finished worse than his starting position in each of those three races. He has actually finished worse than his starting position in all six races he has started in the top ten this season. The race where Armstrong fell the least was at Barber Motorsports Park, starting fourth and finishing sixth. His only two top five finishes this season have come in race where he has started outside the top ten.

This will mark Armstrong's 57th start of his career. Twenty-one drivers have taken at least 57 starts to get their first career victory. The only driver to take exactly 57 starts was Buddy Lazier, whose first career victory was the 1996 Indianapolis 500. The only driver to pick up a first career victory at Mid-Ohio was Charlie Kimball in 2013.

All-Americans

Not only is its Independence Day weekend, but it is the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence. For this year's holiday festivities, eight American drivers are entered for this race from Mid-Ohio.

The top American in the championship is David Malukas in second, but Malukas is still looking for his first career victory. The Illinois-native has finished runner-up three times this season. The only other driver with multiple runner-up finishes this season is Florida's Kyle Kirkwood, who is third in the championship. Only a point separates these two drivers. 

For Malukas, this will be his 72nd career start. Only 12 drivers in IndyCar history have taken at least 72 starts to get their first career victory. The last driver to have their first career victory fall on Independence Day weekend, which for this sake we will consider when Independence Day falls between Thursday and Monday, creating at least a four-day weekend, was Bobby Rahal at Cleveland on July 4, 1982. That was Rahal's fourth career start. 

Malukas does have the second-best average starting position this season at 5.9, and he is tied with Álex Palou for second-best average finish at 6.4. Kirkwood holds the best average finish through the first ten races. The Andretti Global driver has an average finish of 5.9. He has finished outside the top five in four of the last five races after opening the season with five consecutive top five results. 

Kirkwood does enter this weekend with six career victories, but he is still looking for his first victory on a permanent road course. In fact, he has never finished on a podium in a permanent road course race. His best finish was fourth at Road America last summer. 

While Malukas and Kirkwood are the top two Americans in the championship, Josef Newgarden is the only American driver with multiple victories this season. Newgarden won at Phoenix and Gateway. However, his only other top five finish was fourth on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course in May. The Tennessean has not had a podium finish on a permanent road course since he was third at Portland in 2024. He has finished outside the top twenty in his last two Mid-Ohio visits, and he has three consecutive results outside the top ten at the circuit. 

Graham Rahal was about three corners away from his fourth podium finish of the season at Road America. Instead, Rahal enters his home race off the back of consecutive 23rd-place finishes. In three of the last four Mid-Ohio races, Rahal has finished outside the top ten. 

Alexander Rossi heads to Mid-Ohio off matching his best finish of the season in sixth. Rossi had finished 17th or worse in the previous four races. he has not finished on the podium since Laguna Seca in June 2024. 

Santino Ferrucci scored his third top ten finish of the season at Road America, where he finished ninth. Ferrucci has not had a top five finish since he was third at Road America last year. In seven Mid-Ohio starts, his best finish was ninth in 2021. 

This will be Nolan Siegel's 39th career start, and the Californian has finished 20th and 11th in his first two Mid-Ohio trips. Siegel's only top ten finish this season was tenth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. 

Rounding out the American lineup is Sting Ray Robb. Robb had finished outside the top twenty in the first five races of the season. He has since finished in the top twenty in four of the last five results, but only one of those has been a top fifteen finish. He was 14th at Detroit.  

American drivers have combined to win four of the last ten Mid-Ohio races. Prior to this stretch, American drivers had combined to win only two of the previous 18 Mid-Ohio races, including going 14 consecutive races without a victory at this circuit. 

Dixon's Slump

Scott Dixon's woes have been well-documented.

In the last four races, Dixon has failed to crack the top ten, his longest slump in over 20 years. He has only one top five finish this season, and he has only one top five start this season. Surprisingly, despite this string of results, Dixon's 11th-place finish at Road America lifted him to tenth in the championship. That was also helped due to some other results. 

While Dixon enters on a historic low, IndyCar heads to the location of Dixon's most recent victory. A brief off-track excursion cost Álex Palou the lead in last year's Mid-Ohio race after leading 75 of the first 84 laps. Dixon was the man on the scene to sweep on through and hold off a reeling Palou to take the victory. It was a record-extending seventh victory for Dixon on the 2.25-mile road course, but it does follow a pattern for the New Zealander. 

Last year's victory ended a 22-race winless streak for Dixon. It was the third time since the start of the 2021 season Dixon had a winless streak greater than 15 races. He went 22 races between victories at Texas in 2021 and Toronto in 2022. He had a 16-race slump from Nashville in 2022 to the summer Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course race in 2023. This current dry-spell is up to 17 races. 

There isn't a better place for Dixon to be heading than Mid-Ohio. Along with having a record seven victories, Dixon has nine podium finishes in 22 races. He has 14 top five finishes at the circuit, including in four of the last five starts. Only three times has he finished outside the top ten at the track. 

He has started outside the top five in his last three Mid-Ohio races, however, four of Dixon's seven Mid-Ohio victories have seen him start outside the top five, including his last three victories from the circuit. He started sixth for his first victory in 2007. In 2014, he won from 22nd before he won from eighth in 2019. Last year, he won from ninth on the grid. 

Only one of Dixon's last seven victories have come from a top five starting position. He won from fifth at Detroit in 2024. Four of his last seven victories came from a starting position outside the top ten.

Dixon led 11 laps in last year's race, but he had only led two laps in his previous six Mid-Ohio starts. While the results have not been brilliant this season, Dixon has led 78 laps, the sixth-most in IndyCar through ten races. He led exactly 32 laps in the Indianapolis 500 and at Gateway. However, he has only led two laps on road and street courses this season, and those two laps were at St. Petersburg. His other 12 laps led were at Phoenix. 

In each of the last two seasons, Dixon has led 98 laps and 91 laps respectively. In the previous nine seasons, he had led at least 100 laps. With ten more laps led, he would reach the 7,000 laps led milestone in his career.

This weekend will mark the 430th start in Dixon's IndyCar career, and it will be his 367th consecutive start.

Road to Indy

The Road to Indy fills the holiday weekend with another seven races alongside IndyCar's main event. 

Nikita Johnson extended his Indy Lights championship lead with finishes of sixth and third at Road America, and Johnson is six points ahead of Tymek Kucharczyk, who was eighth and second in Elkhart Lake. A cut tire in the first race left Enzo Fittipaldi 22nd, and Fittipaldi recovered to fourth in the second race, but he dropped to third in the championship on 323 points, 27 points behind Johnson. 

Max Taylor had a dismal Road America weekend with finishes of 12th and 17th, and Taylor is now on 289 points in fourth. That is still 20 points ahead of Lochie Hughes, who won the first race from Road America before finishing 20th in the next race. Myles Rowe had finishes of ninth and fifth and that places him on 264 points. 

Alessandro de Tullio was first on the road in the second Road America race, but de Tullio was disqualified after it was found he had the wrong tires mounted on his car. A.J. Foyt Racing had the tires mounted on the wrong cars for de Tullio and Nicholas Monteiro. Monteiro was also disqualified. De Tullio won pole position for both Road America races, and he has won seven pole positions this season. De Tullio is seventh on 249 points. 

Juan Manuel Correa was seventh on both Road America races, and he has 224 points. Matteo Nannini inherited the Road America victory after de Tullio's expulsion. Nannini had scored his first top five finish of the season in the first Road America race when he was fifth. Nannini has 209 points, two more than Josh Pierson in tenth, who was second in the first Mid-Ohio race. Jack Beeton is on 200 points.

The first Indy Lights race will be at 1:00 p.m. ET on Saturday July 4. That race is scheduled for 35 laps or 55 minutes. The second race on Sunday July 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET will be 30 laps or 55 minutes. 

It will be a triple-header weekend for USF Pro 2000.

Jack Jeffers maintained the USF Pro 2000 championship lead with finishes of fourth and second at Road America, but G3 Argyros took a chunk out of the deficit as Argyros swept the Road America weekend. Jeffers has 155 points, 20 clear of Argyros. Leonardo Escorpioni was fifth in both races, and he is third in the championship on 131 points, one more than Frankie Mossman, who was third and fourth.

Michael Costello could not finish better than eighth and 12th in Road America, and Costello is fifth on 125 points. Andrés Cárdenas was second and third in Road America, and Cárdenas is now on 113 points. Thomas Schrage scored a pair of sixth-place finishes last round. This has Schrage seventh in the championship on 100 points, 12 points clear of Teddy Musella, who was seventh in both Road America races.

Brady Golan is back after skipping Road America. Golan has 80 points this season, two points ahead of Christian Cameron.

The first two races of the USF Pro 2000 triple-header will be run on Saturday July 4, first at 11:40 a.m. ET and then at 5:15 p.m. ET. The final race will be at 8:00 a.m. on Sunday July 5. All three races are scheduled for 30 laps. The Saturday races have a 50-minute time limit and the Sunday race has a 45-minute time limit.

In U.S. F2000, Sebastián Garzón had three top five finishes at Road America, and Garzón has scored 234 points, 30 more than Brad Majman, who was second, second and first in Elkhart Lake. Eddie Beswick won the first race at Road America, and he is 64 points behind Garzón in the championship. 

Evan Cooley was fourth and third in the first two races, but a nasty accident that saw Cooley flip ended his weekend. Cooley is fourth in the championship on 156 points, 29 points ahead of João Vergara. Anthony Martella won the second Road America race, his second victory of the season. Martella is on 121 points. 

Oliver Wheldon was third, sixth and fourth over the Road America triple-header, and Wheldon has 119 points despite missing the opening round. Wheldon is ahead of Ayrton Cahan and Garbiel Cahan, who have scored 115 points and 101 points respectively. Liam Loiacono rounds out the top ten on 98 points, two ahead of Wian Boshoff and five ahead of Ryan Giannetta. 

U.S. F2000 will race at 4:45 p.m. ET on Friday July 3 with the second race at 4:20 p.m. ET on Saturday July 4. Both races are scheduled for 20 laps or 40 minutes. 

Fast Facts

This will be the 17th IndyCar race on July 5th, and the first since Justin Wilson won at Watkins Glen in 2009. That was Dale Coyne Racing's first IndyCar victory. 

Twice previously has the state of Ohio hosted a race on July 5. Emerson Fittipaldi won at Cleveland on July 5, 1987, and Sébastien Bourdais won on July 5, 2003 from Cleveland. 

This year's Mid-Ohio race falls on the 89th anniversary of the only IndyCar race with a German winner. On July 5, 1937, Bernd Rosemeyer won the Vanderbilt Cup race from Roosevelt Raceway from Westbury, New York. Rosemeyer was driving an Auto Union and finished ahead of the Mercedes of Richard Seaman and the Alfa Romeo of Rex Mays.

The most recent American to win on July 5 was Bobby Rahal, who won on that day in 1992. It was the first race held at New Hampshire International Speedway in Loudon, New Hampshire. 

Chip Ganassi Racing won its 13th Mid-Ohio race last year, breaking a tie with Team Penske for most at the circuit. 

The only other active teams that have won at Mid-Ohio are Andretti Global, which won in 2018 and 2020, and Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, which won in 2015.

Chip Ganassi Racing has won consecutive Mid-Ohio races on two occasions. It won in 1996 and 1997 with Alex Zanardi. The team also won in six consecutive years from 2009 through 2014.

The fewest laps led for a Mid-Ohio winner is ten by Bobby Rahal in 1986. In only five Mid-Ohio races has the winner led fewer than 20 laps (Johnny Rutherford 1980, Rahal 1986, Roberto Guerrero 1987, Al Unser, Jr. 1995, Scott Dixon 2025).

Last year, Scott Dixon taking the lead with six laps remaining was the first time since 2016 the final lead change in a Mid-Ohio race came with fewer than 20 laps remaining. 

Last year was the sixth Mid-Ohio races where the final lead change occurred with ten laps or fewer remaining (1986 - ten laps to go, 1987 - ten laps to go, 1995 - four laps to go, 2007 - nine laps to go, 2016 - six laps to go).

The average starting position for a Mid-Ohio winner is 3.547 with a median of second. 

Eight of the last 11 Mid-Ohio races have been won from the front row. 

Sixteen of 42 Mid-Ohio races have been won from pole position. Twenty-five Mid-Ohio races have been won from the front row, including five of the last seven races.

The average number of lead changes in a Mid-Ohio race is 4.7857 with a median of five.

Last year's Mid-Ohio race had a record-tying eight lead changes. The other Mid-Ohio races with eight lead changes were in 1988, 2007 and 2017.

Every Mid-Ohio race has had at least one lead change.

The average number of cautions for a Mid-Ohio race is 1.9024 with a median of two. The average number of caution laps is 7.17 with a median of seven. 

Seven Mid-Ohio races have been caution-free. Another ten Mid-Ohio races have had only one caution, including the last two of the last three Mid-Ohio races. Ten of the last 11 Mid-Ohio races have had two cautions or fewer.

Predictions

Álex Palou, and if it isn't Álex Palou, it will be Álex Palou. If you twisted my arm and made me pick someone else, give me Felix Rosenqvist and the feel-good story of a Meyer Shank Racing home victory. Will Power and Graham Rahal will not make contact. Kyle Kirkwood is the best Andretti Global driver but never factors for the victory. Christian Lundgaard will be the best Arrow McLaren qualifier, but the second-best Arrow McLaren finisher. Josef Newgarden makes it through lap one. Scott Dixon ends the top ten finish slump. At least two Chevrolet engines fail before the completion of qualifying. Sleeper: Dennis Hauger.

First Impressions: Mid-Ohio 2025

1. Talk about highway robbery! Álex Palou had this race covered. Palou, using a three-stop strategy, spent the entirety of his penultimate stint opening a gap to cover the pit delta so he could exit the pit lane ahead of Scott Dixon, who was on a two-stop strategy. It worked! Palou made his extra pit stop and he re-emerged on the track two seconds clear of Dixon with 18 laps remaining. The race was effectively over. 

Palou was opening that gap in the final stint, and he was up four seconds, until six laps to go. Palou ran wide exiting turn eight, and in an effort to keep the car out of the grass and potentially being thrown into the barrier, the Catalan driver slowed, but it allowed Scott Dixon to blast through to the lead. It set up a five-lap battle for the victory with Palou having the advantage of fresher tires and a lighter car. Unfortunately, once the door was open, Dixon was never going to give it up. 

It proved to be about a 4.5-second mistake, because Dixon held on to take his 59th career victory, his first of the season and his seventh at Mid-Ohio, by 0.4201 seconds over Palou. It was a Chip Ganassi Racing 1-2 finish, but in the order we did not see coming with only a handful of laps remaining. 

Is this one of the luckiest victories of Dixon's career? An honorable man would acknowledge the fortune, but Dixon still had to make a two-stop strategy work. He got there on the first stint. On the second stint, he made sure to keep Palou honest, and Dixon did not lose chunks of time. Dixon still had to be there to capitalize if a mistake happened. A mistake occurred, and Dixon punished Palou for doing so. 

I was getting nervous this week about Dixon and his streak of seasons with at least one victory. With how good Palou has been, I was finding it difficult to see where Dixon could win. This felt like the prime race, but Palou is also really good at Mid-Ohio. I didn't feel good about Toronto. Palou has been outstanding at Laguna Seca, and Palou thrashes the field at Portland. That left the four oval races, and those are bigger wild cards because we have seen smaller teams run competitively at ovals, and it is just a lower chance at victory for everyone let alone Dixon. 

I am glad it happened now because I am not sure a greater opportunity would have come up for Dixon, as unexpected an opportunity this turned out to be.

2. You know what sucks? I had this lovely opening applauding Álex Palou's brilliance, and it is still brilliance, but of all times for him to make a mistake and in all positions to make a mistake, I don't think anyone would have scripted this one. Palou was gone! Why would we think he would drive off the road? Hey, he is human!

This should have been a victory for Palou. We should have been talking about a seventh victory in ten races. We should have been talking about the single-season record for victories coming clearer into view. We should have mentioned that a driver with a 70% winning percentage just needed a 57.152% winning percentage over the final seven races to etch his name in history. A 60% winning percentage through ten races still puts Palou on track for a record, but the margin of error is gone. 

It sucks because this was a special race from Palou. His antepenultimate stint should still be spotlighted because it was incredible. Palou dipped into the 66-second bracket while a number of drivers were running in the low-68s because of their commitment to the two-stop strategy. Palou had to be on it for this race to work. He needed to be flying from the competition to make this victory easy. He could have come out in second or even third after his final stop and needed to erase a four or five-second gap in the final 20 laps, but why run that risk of getting into traffic? Palou made sure he kept everyone behind him. He did, until one unexpected slip up.

We are not going to see that mistake again. Even with those ten points he forfeited with his one error, Palou still increased his championship lead. He is 113 points ahead of Kyle Kirkwood with seven races remaining. All Palou lost today was possibly a shot at history and little bit of pride. He will be focused for the remainder of the season. 

3. Christian Lundgaard had a stellar day to finish third. Lundgaard was almost the only driver who could hang with Palou until Palou started dipping into the 66-second bracket. Lundgaard was always positioned for a podium result, but this race was reminiscent of Barber Motorsports Park. Lundgaard was second-best to Palou, but a distant second, which turned into third because of Dixon's two-stopper. Lundgaard drove a solid race, and he needed this result, but there is a wide gap from him and Palou. There is no shame at that. No one is close. It will require something mighty to defeat Palou this season.

4. Colton Herta had a good strategy to start on the primary tire, and it allowed him to close in on the leaders at the end of the first stint. It got him a number of positions, but the problem is Herta didn't quite have the pace on the alternate tire. Palou was running in the 66-second bracket on the primary tire. Herta couldn't get much quicker than the 67.2s. Palou was gone. Herta ended up over 13 seconds back before his final pit stop. His three-stop strategy wasn't going to turn into a victory. Herta started hitting the 66s in the final stint, but that is when he had a massive tire advantage and had plenty of fuel to burn. It was still a good day, but again, there is a wide gap from Herta to Palou.

5. I think Patricio O'Ward ran out of fuel on the final lap because he ran a 72.0644 and he had been fourth ahead of Herta. O'Ward had just enough to finish fifth, but he had just enough from this turning into a disappointing result. O'Ward ran a little off strategy and an alternate three-stop strategy. He stopped on lap 11, stopped on lap 30, just prior to the Christian Rasmussen caution, and he stopped with 28 laps to go. It was effectively a pseudo-two-stopper. I don't know how O'Ward cut it that close when Dixon made it with ease after stopping one lap earlier. This is still a good result for O'Ward considering he started 14th.

6. Felix Rosenqvist committed to the two-stop strategy under the Rasmussen caution, and Rosenqvist got to the finish, but he was saving the entire race. That was time lost, and it is still a sixth-place finish, but he was 27.6686 seconds off Dixon the same strategy. Again, good result for Rosenqvist...

7. And it was a great day for Meyer Shank Racing as Marcus Armstrong made it a double top ten day finishing in seventh. Armstrong was on the three-stopper and ran long before his final stop, but it worked out as he had to do seven laps after his final stop. Armstrong opened a large gap to the rest of the field, which allowed the New Zealander to come out in seventh. That last stop wasn't that costly after all. 

For a team that two years ago was scrambling to find a substitute driver at this race and could not put one car in the top ten to have both cars finish in the top ten of its home race is a massive boost for the MSR group.

8. Kyle Kirkwood struggled on the alternate tire to start the race. He lost a lot of time early and dropped out of the top ten after starting seventh. Kirkwood committed early to the three-stopper, stopping first on lap 13. It wasn't paying off massively. That Rasmussen caution actually helped Kirkwood. He made his second stop under that caution because it would allow his final stop to occur right when the final pit window opened. 

For most of this race, I didn't think Kirkwood would crack the top ten, but the strategy fell in his favor and he was able to gain spots on each cycle. He lost ground to Palou and O'Ward today, but this day could have been much worse.

9. This is starting to feel like a Dale Coyne Racing of old because Rinus VeeKay turned 26th on the grid into ninth in the final results, and it largely went unnoticed. VeeKay stopped on lap 30, like Dixon, and VeeKay ran a straight two-stop race. We weren't seeing this last year, or even the last two seasons from Coyne, and it was once strong at strategy. The pace might not have been there, but the team could figure out a way to get a boost by doing something different. If it wasn't for the Rasmussen caution, I don't know how many teams would have run the pseudo-two-stop strategy and stopped so the final pit stop was right inside the final window. Committing early benefitted VeeKay, and it is another top ten day! 

10. This could have been a podium for Kyffin Simpson. It probably should have been a top five finish, but on his final pit stop, Simpson stalled, and on his way out, he clipped VeeKay's right rear tire changer. Thankfully, Simpson only caught Nico Don's toes, and Don was rather unscathed. Simpson was not. He lost time for the stall and had to make a drive-through penalty. Thankfully, Simpson had opened enough of a gap to the rest of the field that he was able to re-join the race in 13th after serving his penalty, and as the final pit stops happened, Simpson got back in the top ten. 

This was Simpson's best day in IndyCar, even with the stall and the penalty. He was genuinely one of the five best cars today. It is shame it is only a tenth-place result.

11. Where do we go from here? Nolan Siegel was 11th and ran rather well, but like Armstrong, Siegel had to make his final pit stop late. Siegel stopped with ten laps remaining, and it cost him a top ten. 

Marcus Ericsson did nothing and finished 12th, which doesn't sound good, but considering where Ericsson has been, a 12th-place day is at least promising. It must get better though. This is a start. 

Callum Ilott was teasing a top ten finish today, but his final stop came with nine laps to go. It is good though. This is Ilott's best finish of the season. He has been improving really since the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. He would have been 12th at the "500" if it wasn't for the wing endplate penalty knocking him to 33rd. Prema should be feeling good. The team is making progress.

This feels like another day where Louis Foster got caught on strategy. The team committed to three stops, stopping on lap 22. The Rasmussen caution came out and Foster came in on lap 32. At that point, he is on the same pace as the two-stoppers, but he gave up track position, and what could have been a top ten day became a fight outside the top ten. Foster was ahead of Siegel, Ericsson and Ilott prior to that. He was ahead of Kirkwood and Armstrong as well. That was the difference between a top ten and 14th. 

It wasn't a good day for Alexander Rossi. He was 15th. He was on a three-stopper, but it didn't look like anything fell his way today.

12. The top five finish streak is over for Santino Ferrucci and A.J. Foyt Racing, but at least he got noticed. Ferrucci ran Conor Daly off the road exiting turn five, which earned Ferrucci a penalty that required him to drop three positions. This was reminiscent of last year's Grand Prix of Indianapolis, where Ferrucci got distracted driving Romain Grosjean off the track rather than trying to drive a productive race, and it ended up damaging Ferrucci's car and led to a retirement. This contact didn't end Ferrucci's race, but it was clear he wasn't interested in racing his way to the front today. Let's also not forget his moment in practice nearly blitzing into Newgarden. 

David Malukas was 17th and the Foyt cars were around each other all race. The team is likely feeling good ahead of Iowa. It likely believes it can win a race. If we are being honest, today was a better representation of this team's level than the last four races where it was finishing in the top five. 

13. Juncos Hollinger Racing was 18th with Sting Ray Robb and 19th with Conor Daly. Daly had some damage after the Ferrucci contact, but he wasn't going to run much better than 19th anyway. This is where JHR lives, but JHR likely feels confident for Iowa. Daly was fastest in the test there a few weeks ago. Today isn't going to hurt their confidence for next week.

14. Devlin DeFrancesco was 20th. That is all.

15. Robert Shwartzman was anonymous today in 21st, as was Jacob Abel in 22nd. They are rookies, but they need to have better days than this. I know Shwartzman has had good days, as we have seen with his Indianapolis 500 pole position and a tenth at Gateway. He also ran well at Long Beach, but we need to see Shwartzman have a road course race where he is pushing the top ten. He needs a race like the ones we have seen from Ilott the last two races. 

As for Abel, I think this is the ceiling. VeeKay has been fantastic, but I don't know how much else Abel can get out of this car. 

16. I didn't think it could get worse for Team Penske than Gateway. It did. 

Josef Newgarden... out on lap one spinning on his own.

Will Power... engine expired after 11 laps.

Scott McLaughlin... never a factor and for some reason this was a five-stop race that saw him finish a lap down in 23rd. Even Jacob Abel finished on the lead lap today! 

Will Power is the top Penske driver in the championship and he is ninth! The other two race outside the top ten. 

This team's psyche is off. Newgarden is making unforced errors. Power looked unhinged this weekend. McLaughlin has the best demeanor of the three, but this is completely foreign to him, need we be reminded that five years ago McLaughlin had never run full-time in an open-wheel car. He shouldn't be the leader. That is where Power and Newgarden should step in another neither appear mentally capable of doing so at the moment. It doesn't help that the mental support from the pit stand is gone. 

When the best team in IndyCar is a shell of its former self, how can you know what to do to get out of it?  I don't know if there is anyone at the organization that can figure out a way to work through this funk. Who is stepping up? It clearly isn't any of the drivers. 

We should be going into Iowa expecting Newgarden to be the man to beat and both his teammates being his biggest challengers. I don't know if we should feel that way. This is the worst this team has looked in 26 years. I don't know how much better it can get.

17. Graham Rahal was collateral damage when Newgarden spun. That was a real shame because Mid-Ohio is Rahal's home race, and he was starting 20th, but with the 90-lap distance and the pit stop dynamic, it could have turned into a promising result.

18. Christian Rasmussen had a pit stop issue. The team didn't get any fuel into the car on his first pit stop. Rasmussen ran out on the track and drew the second caution. Ed Carpenter Racing was told the car would not be towed back. I am fine that. I think if you run out on track or cannot drive back to the pit lane, your race should be over. Especially running out of fuel. If you ran out on track, too bad. Get your pit stops right!

19. What a difference ten laps will make! Mid-Ohio should have returned to 90 laps in 2021. This is a much better race when it is two-stop vs. three-stop. Even if it isn't two vs. three, the extra distance opens the pit windows so a three-stop strategy can begin early or late in the race. IndyCar increasing the distance in six races should not go unnoticed.

Prior to this weekend, we had only see one length-increased race, and that was Long Beach. Iowa has its own issues, but each race will be 25 laps longer than last year. Toronto being 90 laps should open that race up. 

I think the alternate tire was a little too good today. It lost time but it was a little too balance to the primary in the final third of a stint. We needed to see a little more fall off. It was a good balance, but it could have been a little better and mixed up this race a little more. 

20. IndyCar's busy July is only get busier. Cars will be back in action in five days for practice from Iowa and the only doubleheader weekend of the season. There is much skepticism for the Iowa race. We will cover that as we get closer. Let's see if this trip will be worth it. 

Morning Warm-Up: Mid-Ohio 2025

Álex Palou won his third pole position of the season after a lap of 65.0215 seconds around Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course in the final round of qualifying, and Palou will lead the field to the green flag for the Honda 200. It is Palou's ninth career pole position. He has already won six times from pole position in his IndyCar career, the third-most among active drivers. Palou is attempting to win consecutive races for the third time this season. He won the first two races at St. Petersburg and Thermal before he swept the three races during the month of May between Barber Motorsports Park and the two at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. The last driver to have three instances of consecutive victories in a season was Sébastien Bourdais in 2007.

Christian Lundgaard was 0.1911 seconds off Palou's top time, and Lundgaard has his second front row start of the season. The Dane started second at Thermal Club. Lundgaard is looking to avoid three consecutive finishes outside the top ten. He was 14th and 24th in the last two races. Last year, he had a four-race top ten finish drought from the Indianapolis 500 through Laguna Seca. The only other time he has gone at least three races without a top ten result were the first five races of his IndyCar career.

Kyffin Simpson made the Fast Six for the first time in his IndyCar career, and he will start a career-best third at the Honda 200 as Simpson was 0.7340 seconds off his Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Palou. Simpson's previous best starting position was tenth. Simpson is coming off his third top ten finish of the season as he was sixth at Road America. Simpson has also finished outside the top twenty in three races this season.

Nolan Siegel made the Fast Six for the second time this season, and Siegel will start fourth, the best starting spot of his IndyCar career. Siegel was eighth in the last race at Road America, the first time he has been the best Arrow McLaren finisher this season. Siegel was 20th last year at Mid-Ohio, and in 16 Road to Indy races at the circuit, he never won a race with only four podium results. The Californian is looking for his first career top five finish in IndyCar.

Colton Herta rounds out the top five on the grid. This is the fifth consecutive Mid-Ohio race Herta is starting in the top five. Since his first Mid-Ohio start in 2019, Herta has led the second-most laps at Mid-Ohio. He has led 99 laps in seven starts. Only Álex Palou has led more laps at Mid-Ohio during this time. Palou has led 101 laps. Herta has never won from fifth position in his career. He has won from pole position five times, fourth on one occasion, ninth on one occasion and twice from 14th. 

Louis Foster takes sixth on the grid. This was the third time this season Foster has made the Fast Six. Foster matched his career-best IndyCar finish of 11th at Road America and that came after he started on pole position. Each time Foster has made the Fast Six, he has finished 11th in the race. In four Road to Indy starts at Mid-Ohio, Foster never finished worse than second.

Kyle Kirkwood ended up 0.0361 seconds short of advancing to the final round of qualifying, and this will place Kirkwood seventh on the grid. Kirkwood is going for his fourth consecutive top five finish, which would be the longest streak of his career. This is his second consecutive season with a three-race top five finish streak.

Marcus Armstrong will start to Kirkwood's outside on row four. This is the sixth time in ten races Armstrong has started in the top ten. Armstrong is coming off his first top five finish of the season, and he is looking for his fourth consecutive top ten result. Armstrong has yet to have four consecutive top ten results in his IndyCar career.

Scott Dixon has the #9 PNC Bank Honda starting ninth at Mid-Ohio. This is only the third time Dixon has started in the top ten this season. After the car suffered a hybrid issue last year on the pace laps, Dixon suffered his worst Mid-Ohio finish, placing in 27th. He had seven consecutive top ten finishes prior to last year's Mid-Ohio race and he had 18 top ten finishes in his first 20 Mid-Ohio starts.

Marcus Ericsson moves up to tenth on the grid after Christian Rasmussen's six-spot penalty for taking on his fifth engine. Ericsson's first top ten start since he started ninth for the Indianapolis 500. Ericsson has matched his worst top ten slump of his career at eight consecutive races. He has finished in the top ten in four of his last five Mid-Ohio starts. Only twice has Ericsson finished better than his starting spot this season. He went from seventh to sixth at St. Petersburg and from 23rd to 20th at Barber.

Alexander Rossi starts 11th, his best starting position since he started ninth for the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. This will be the 12th consecutive race Rossi has not started in the top five. Rossi's average finish in his last three Mid-Ohio races is 11.667. Prior to that, he had five consecutive top five finishes at the circuit with an average finish of 3.2.

Conor Daly scored his best starting position on a road or street course this season, but Daly was 0.0388 seconds from advancing from the first round of qualifying. Thanks to the Rasmussen's penalty, Daly takes 12th on the grid. Daly had top ten finishes in his first two Mid-Ohio starts in 2016 and 2017. In his six Mid-Ohio starts since, his best result is 13th with an average finish of 16.5.

David Malukas was 0.0117 seconds from making it from group two to the second round of qualifying. This will have Malukas starting 13th. Malukas had started no worse than seventh in the last four races. In three career Mid-Ohio starts, Malukas' average finish is ninth, his best average finish among circuits where he has made at least three starts.

Patricio O'Ward fell 0.0541 seconds from advancing to the second round of qualifying, and this places O'Ward 14th on the grid. This will be the third time in four races O'Ward is starting outside the top ten. Seven times has a driver won consecutive Mid-Ohio races. O'Ward is attempting to become the eighth driver. No one has done it since Scott Dixon in 2011 and 2012. Only once has a driver won from 14th or worse at Mid-Ohio. Scott Dixon won from 22nd in 2014. 

Felix Rosenqvist was 0.0125 seconds shy of making it to the second round, and this places the Swede 15th on the grid. Rosenqvist was second in the most recent race from Road America. He has had at least one podium finish in six of his seven seasons. He has never had consecutive podium finishes in his career. Only once has he followed a podium result with a top five finish. That was in the final two races of his rookie year when Rosenqvist was second at Portland and fifth at Laguna Seca.

Christian Rasmussen ended up tenth after the second round of qualifying, but Rasmussen's six-spot grid penalty for taking on his fifth engine of the season drops him down to 16th on the grid. This was set to match his best starting position of the season. He had started tenth at Detroit last month. The Dane scored his first career top ten finish last year at Mid-Ohio when he finished ninth.

Santino Ferrucci finds himself starting 17th. Ferrucci has yet to start in the top ten this season, but Ferrucci has four consecutive top five finishes and his best start in that stretch is 15th. No A.J. Foyt Racing has had five consecutive top five finishes since A.J. Foyt had a nine-race top five finish streak spanning the final three races of the 1978 USAC season and the first six races of the 1979 season. 

Josef Newgarden is the top Team Penske starter, but the bad news is Newgarden is starting 18th. Newgarden has finished 25th in the last two races. He is looking to avoid three consecutive results outside the top twenty since the third, fourth and fifth starts of his IndyCar career. He went 26th, 23rd and 23rd over the Long Beach, São Paulo and Indianapolis 500 in 2012.

Sting Ray Robb takes 19th on the grid, his best starting position since he started 17th for the Indianapolis 500. Robb went from 19th to ninth at the Grand Prix of Long Beach earlier this season. Robb was 16th last year at Mid-Ohio, a six-spot improvement from his first Mid-Ohio start in 2023. 

Graham Rahal is going to start 20th, his worst starting position at Mid-Ohio since he was 22nd in 2013. Rahal has ten top ten finishes in his last 12 Mid-Ohio starts. However, he has not finished on the podium at the circuit since he was third in 2017. In only two of those 12 races did he finish worse than his starting position. 

Scott McLaughlin was over a tenth of a second from advancing from the first qualifying group, and this has McLaughlin in 21st starting position. This is the second time McLaughlin has started outside the top twenty this season. He rolled off from 25th spot at Thermal Club. He has started in the top ten of every other race this season. McLaughlin's current top ten finish drought of four races is his longest since a seven-race slump during his rookie season.

Will Power has his worst starting position ever at Mid-Ohio as he will start 22nd. Power did go from 21st to third in the 2022 Mid-Ohio race. Power has finished outside the top ten in the last two races. He has finished outside the top ten in the tenth race of the season in four consecutive seasons. His most recent top ten result in the tenth race of a season was his Mid-Ohio victory in 2020.

Devlin DeFrancesco is starting 23rd for the third time this season. He started 23rd at Long Beach before finishing 24th. He started and finished 23rd at Detroit. DeFrancesco has made 43 starts without a top ten finish, tied with Milka Duno for most starts without a top ten finish. The previous most starts before a first career top ten finish is Marco Greco on 42 starts. 

Callum Ilott starts 24th, his worst starting position since he started 27th, last place at the St. Petersburg season opener. Ilott has scored his best finish of the season in the last two races. He was 18th at Gateway and 15th at Road America. Ilott has finished worse than his starting position in the last four races. 

For the first time this season, Jacob Abel is the top qualifier for Dale Coyne Racing. Abel will start 25th for the fourth time this season. He started 25th at St. Petersburg, Barber and the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. In 16 Road to Indy starts at Mid-Ohio, Abel's best finish was third on three occasions, including last year in Indy Lights.

Rinus VeeKay has his worst starting position on a road or street course this season, with the Dutchman taking the outside of the 13th row next to his Coyne teammate Abel. VeeKay did cause a local yellow, which cost him his fastest lap. This is his worst starting position on a road or street course since he started 27th at Barber in April 2024. While VeeKay's best Mid-Ohio finish is fourth, his average finish at Mid-Ohio is 12.1667.

Robert Shwartzman will start last in 27th. This matches his worst starting position. He started 27th at Thermal Club and at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Shwartzman suffered his worst finish of the season at Road America when he had an accident at Canada Corner to finish 27th. It is only the second time he has retired from a race this season. The other was the Indianapolis 500. 

Fox's coverage of the Honda 200 from Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course begins at 1:00 p.m. ET with green flag scheduled for 1:22 p.m. The race is scheduled for 90 laps. 

Track Walk: Mid-Ohio 2025

The tenth round of the 2025 NTT IndyCar Series season has the series moving into Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course for this Independence Day weekend. Mid-Ohio starts a run of four consecutive weekends at the track with five races during that time. When the month of July is over, only three races will remain in the 2025 season. At time of publishing, there are only 59 days remaining in the IndyCar season. This will be the 42nd IndyCar race at Mid-Ohio, and there have been eight different winners in the last eight races at the circuit, the longest streak ever at the track. Three different teams have won in the last three years. 

Coverage

Time: Coverage begins at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday July 6 with green flag scheduled for 1:20 p.m. ET.
Channel: Fox
Announcers: Will Buxton, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Kevin Lee, Georgia Henneberry and Jack Harvey will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule

Friday:

First Practice: 4:30 p.m. ET (75 minutes)

Saturday:

Second Practice: 10:30 a.m. ET (60 minutes)
Qualifying: 2:30 p.m. ET 
Sunday:
Warm-up: 9:32 a.m. ET (25 minutes)
Race: 1:20 p.m. ET (90 laps)

FS2 will have coverage of Friday practice session while FS1 will have coverage of Saturday's sessions and the Sunday morning warm-up. Fox will have race coverage.

How Will Ten Extra Laps Change Strategy?

This year's Mid-Ohio race sees a return to the 90-lap distance, which had previously been used from 2013 through 2019. When Mid-Ohio became a doubleheader for the 2020 season, a pair of 75-lap races were held, and for the past four seasons, Mid-Ohio was an 80-lap race. 

Ten laps make a big difference at Mid-Ohio. Each of the winners in 2018 and 2019, the last two 90-lap races, were won with two-stop pit strategies, but the 90-lap distance opens the door for multiple strategies to work. 

Scott Dixon won in 2019 making only two stops, but he was struggling on his tires at the end of the race, and it allowed then-Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Felix Rosenqvist to close in on Dixon. Rosenqvist had made three stops. On the final lap, nothing separated the two drivers, and at the finish line Dixon held off Rosenqvist by 0.0934 seconds for victory. 

Dixon was one of three drivers to run a two-stop strategy in that race. Will Power made two stops from pole position and finished fourth. Alexander Rossi made two stops from second on the grid and finished fifth. Meanwhile, Rosenqvist went from sixth to second on a three-stopper and Ryan Hunter-Reay went from tenth to third. It should be noted the 2019 race went caution-free.

Rossi won in 2018 on a two-stop, but he was the only driver in the field to run such a strategy. He won from pole position with 66 laps led in a flawless run. However, behind Rossi, everyone made three stops, and in another caution-free race drivers were able to drive forward. Sébastien Bourdais went from 24th to sixth. Simon Pagenaud went from 17th to eighth. 

From 2013 through 2017, each Mid-Ohio winner made at least three pit stops. 

Charlie Kimball won on a three-stop strategy in 2013 after starting fifth. Kimball and Simon Pagenaud, who started eighth, had a memorable battle, which saw Kimball overtake Pagenaud for the lead with 18 laps remaining. Dario Franchitti rounded out the podium on a three-stopper after he started sixth. The only drivers in 2013 to use a two-stop strategy were the front row starters. Ryan Hunter-Reay dropped from first to fifth, over 46 seconds behind Kimball, while Will Power went from second to fourth at the checkered flag, and Power was over 42.5 seconds behind Kimball in what was a caution-free race.

Scott Dixon won after making four pit stops in 2014. Dixon had started 22nd and he made his first pit stop on lap two as there was an opening lap caution for a three-car incident in turn four. He then made his final pit stop on lap 62 and was able to stretch his fuel the final 28 laps to win by 5.3864 seconds over Sébastien Bourdais.

From 2014 through 2017, no team attempted a two-stop strategy, including the 2015 race despite there being four cautions. 

In the past four seasons with the 80-lap race distance, all four winners have made only two pit stops. Only two out of 40 top ten finishers over those four races made three pit stops. Will Power, amazingly, used a three-stop strategy in 2022 to go from 21st to third in what was a six-caution race. In 2023, Patricio O'Ward went from 25th to eighth on a three-stopper with the only caution being for an opening lap incident. 

Of the 80 lead lap finishers over the last four Mid-Ohio race, 19 made at least three pit stops. Last year, all seven cars that made at least three pit stops finished 14th or worse. 

The Hybrid - One Year Later

Mid-Ohio marks the one-year anniversary of the first hybrid race in IndyCar history. Debuting on July 7, 2024, IndyCar's hybrid system has now gone a full calendar year in use. It has been used on all but one circuit on the calendar, and that would be Laguna Seca, which was the final race prior to the introduction of the system last year, and Laguna Seca has since moved to the end of July. 

Eighteen races have been held with the hybrid system. Eight of those have been oval races, six of which took place last season. Six permanent road course races have been held, two of which were in 2024 and four were in 2025. There have been four street races, three of which have happened this season.

In 18 races with the system, there have been seven different winners with the system. Álex Palou leads all drivers with six hybrid victories, but those six victories have all come this season. None of the five drivers to win with the hybrid in 2024 have won yet in 2025. We opened IndyCar's hybrid era with five consecutive different winers. Four of those were Chevrolet drivers. 

While Chevrolet won seven of the nine hybrid races in 2024, Honda has opened the 2025 season with nine consecutive victories, ten consecutive when you count last year's season finale, which Colton Herta won, giving Honda an 11-7 edge with the hybrid system. Only four teams have won during IndyCar's hybrid era, but in the 42 races prior to the introduction of the hybrid, a team other than Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing, Andretti Global or Arrow McLaren had won only once. That was Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing with Christian Lundgaard at Toronto in 2023.

Adding all the points earned since the first hybrid race, it is no surprise Palou has the most. He has scored 645 points over the 18 hybrid races, 118 points more than Patricio O'Ward, the next closest. Scott McLaughlin is third amongst all drivers with 507 points, 20 points behind O'Ward. Kyle Kirkwood sits in fourth having earned 503 points, which is 23 points more than his Andretti Global teammate Colton Herta, who rounds out the top five.

Scott Dixon and Will Power are next, each one point apart since last year's Mid-Ohio race. Dixon has scored 434 points over that span to Power's 433 points. Santino Ferrucci has scored 397 points with Christian Lundgaard next on 384 points. Felix Rosenqvist rounds out the top ten with 361 points. Josef Newgarden is just on the outside of the top ten as Newgarden has scored 357 points in the hybrid races, five more than Marcus Armstrong and 14 more than Rinus VeeKay. 

Alexander Rossi (329) and David Malukas (308) are the final two drivers to have amassed over 300 points. Marcus Ericsson has scored only 270 points, 12 more than Graham Rahal and 23 more than Nolan Siegel. Kyffin Simpson has scored 235 points while Conor Daly and Christian Rasmussen are on 231 points, but Daly did not run in three hybrid races last year, Mid-Ohio the first Iowa race, and Toronto. Sting Ray Robb rounds out the hybrid regulars with 200 points to his name. 

Palou's Look at the Record Book

Álex Palou has been the man of 2025 in IndyCar. Palou's victory at Road America was his sixth of the season. He is the first driver with at least six victories through the first nine races since A.J. Foyt did it in 1975. Six victories is a high-bar in contemporary IndyCar.

Palou is the first driver to win six races in a season since Will Power in 2011. No driver has won at least seven races in a season since reunification. The last driver with at least seven victories in a year was Sébastien Bourdais, who won eight of 14 races in the 2007 Champ Car season. When it comes to unified series, Al Unser, Jr.'s eight victories in 1994 is the last time a driver won at least seven times in a single series. 

While Palou has these milestones within view, all-time records are plausible for the 2025 season. With a winning percentage of 66.667%, he is on pace to win at least 11 races this year. The most victories in a single season is ten. A.J. Foyt did it in 1964 and Al Unser did it in 1970. The remaining eight races line up particularly well for Palou. 

The Catalan driver has won at three of the remaining seven circuits. Palou won at Mid-Ohio two years ago and he was finished on the podium in all four of his starts at the track with Chip Ganassi Racing. He has never finished worse than sixth in three Toronto starts, and he was second there in 2023. He has finished on the podium in two of the last three Iowa races. His four visits to Laguna Seca have ended with finishes of fourth, first third and first. He has won twice in four Portland starts, and he was second last year. 

Milwaukee and Nashville are the only real question marks for Palou, and last year was his first visit to both circuits. He was fifth in the first Milwaukee race, and then gearbox issues prevented him from starting the second race on time. At Nashville, he only needed a ninth-place finish to clinch the championship and he finished 11th. 

One more victory would make him only 16th driver to win at least seven times in a season. He is currently tied with Ralph Mulford, Danny Sullivan and Tony Kanaan in the all-time record book with 17 career victories. One more victory would move him into a tie with Ryan Hunter-Reay for 27th all-time. 

Aside for victories, Palou has seven podium finishes this season, and he is on pace for at least 13 podium finishes in a season. Only five times in IndyCar history has a driver had at least 13 podium finishes in a season, and only six times has a driver had at least 12 podium finishes, most recently was Scott Dixon in 2008. The last driver with at least 13 podium finishes was Alex Zanardi, who had 15 podium finishes in 1998. The most podium finishes in a season was 16, which Mario Andretti achieved in 1968.

Who Needs a Win?

Through nine races, there have only been two winners this IndyCar season: Álex Palou and Kyle Kirkwood. It is the fewest winners through nine races since the 1980 season when Johnny Rutherford and Bobby Unser had a 5-4 split. We have not seen only two winners through ten races since the 1964 season when A.J. Foyt won nine of the first ten races, and Parnelli Jones had won the eighth race of the season at Milwaukee. Foyt and Jones combined to win the first 12 races of the 1964 season. 

Over two-dozen drivers need a victory, and time is running out as there are fewer races remaining than have been contested. Six drivers from last season have not won yet in 2025.

Patricio O'Ward won at Mid-Ohio last year, and it was his second of a series-high three victories in 2024. O'Ward has been one of the closer drivers to victory this season. He has finished runner-up three times, and no other driver has multiple runner-up finishes this season. At Thermal Club, O'Ward led 51 of 65 laps, and at one point was over ten seconds clear of the field before Palou had the better tire compound for the final stint, allowing Palou to run down and pass the Mexican driver.

O'Ward has seven career victories, but he has yet to win at a track multiple times. Prior to his victory last year, he had not finished better than eighth in his first six Mid-Ohio starts. 

Team Penske has been the biggest notable absence in the 2025 season. Its trio of drivers all have a bagel in the victory column after the three combined for eight victories in 2024. The team has not failed to win one of the first ten races since Penske went winless in 1999. 

Will Power is currently the best Penske driver in the championship, and he is ranked in seventh on 197 points. After rebounding with four consecutive top ten finishes from Thermal Club through the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Power has finished outside the top ten in three of the last four races. He has finished on the podium in four of the last six Mid-Ohio races, which include his only victory at the circuit in the second race of the 2020 doubleheader.

Scott McLaughlin is seven points behind Power in the championship, and he is heading into Mid-Ohio on one of his worst slumps since his rookie season. In the last four races, McLaughlin has an average finish 19.5. He has failed to finish two of those races and he has finished 12th in the other two. The good news is McLaughlin has finished in the top five in the last three Mid-Ohio races, which started with his victory at the circuit in 2022.

Josef Newgarden is having a nightmare of a season. Seventeenth in the championship, Newgarden's only top five finish was third in the season opener at St. Petersburg. He has finished outside of the top twenty in three of the last four races. Mid-Ohio is likely not the place Newgarden was hoping to see. He has finished outside the top ten in the last two race, though he had finished in the top ten of the previous four Mid-Ohio races and he has won twice at the circuit, most recently in 2021.

Scott Dixon is fourth in the championship, but he enters this weekend 20 races removed from his most recent victory. While Dixon is the all-time leader in victories at Mid-Ohio with six, he has not won at the track since 2019. Five races is longest winless streak at the 2.258-mile circuit. He has only one podium finish through the first nine races, his fewest since 2022 when he had one through the first nine races in that year as well. Dixon went on to win the tenth race in 2022 at Toronto, ending a 22-race winless streak. 

Colton Herta is in a similar rut as Will Power. Like Power, Herta has finished outside the top ten in three of the last four races with a third at Detroit mixed in, one spot better than Power. Herta is tenth in the championship on 184 points, tied with Santino Ferrucci, but Ferrucci holds the tiebreaker as his best finish this year was second at Detroit. Herta has not won on a permanent road course since the 2022 Grand Prix of Indianapolis. His fourth-place finish last year at Mid-Ohio ended a three-race top ten finish drought at the circuit. 

Road to Indy

It is another full weekend of competition for the junior series as the Road to Indy will complete a pyramid this weekend. U.S. F2000 will race three times, USF Pro 2000 will race twice, and Indy Lights has one race from Mid-Ohio. 

Caio Collet scored his second career victory in Indy Lights two weeks ago at Road America, and now Collet heads to where he scored his first career victory. He won at Mid-Ohio last year, and he could become the first driver to win at Mid-Ohio in consecutive years in Indy Lights since Santiago Urrutia swept the 2016 doubleheader and won the first race in 2017. 

Collet's victory has him third in the championship, 70 points behind championship leader Dennis Hauger. Hauger was second at Road America, his fifth podium finish of the season and he has started on pole position in five of seven races. The only time he did not start on pole position were the two races on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course.

Hauger has 317 points and a 28-point advantage over Andretti Global teammate Lochie Hughes. Hughes has raced at Mid-Ohio the last three years in the Road to Indy, but in eight starts he has never finished better than fourth. Hughes was third at Road America, and he has finished in the top five of every race this year. 

Myles Rowe is fourth in the championship on 216 points. Rowe had six top five finishes in seven races. Josh Pierson matched his best finish of the seaosn with fourth at Road America. Pierson sits on 194 points, three ahead of Salvador de Alba. There is a 30-point gap from de Alba to Callum Hedge in seventh. There is a further 27-point gap from Hedge to Jack William Miller.

Indy Lights will race on Sunday July 6 at 10:35 a.m. ET. The race is scheduled for 35 laps.

Max Garcia won two of three Road America races in USF Pro 2000, and his championship lead is 72 points over Mac Clark. Garcia has finished inside the top four of every race this season while Clark has four consecutive podium finishes and seven consecutive top five finishes, but Clark has yet to win a race this year. Clark has not won in Road to Indy competition since the second race of the 2023 Mid-Ohio triple-header in U.S. F2000.

Ariel Elkin is a point behind Clark in the championship while Alessandro de Tullio is 19 points off Elkin on 234 points. Max Taylor's victory in the Road America capper moved Taylor into the championship top five on 202 points, one more than Jacob Douglas. There is a 54-point gap from Douglas in sixth and Michael Costello in seventh.

Both USF Pro 2000 races will be run on Saturday July 5. The first of which will be at 11:55 a.m. with the second at 5:15 p.m. Each race will be 30 laps or 50 minutes. 

U.S. F2000 has the closest championship battle with Thomas Schrage up 27 points on Jack Jeffers. Neither driver had an outstanding Road America weekend. Schrage won the first race but was 13th in the second race. Jeffers started each race on pole position, but he was 22nd and seventh at the checkered flag of each respective race. 

Teddy Musella made a big gain, finishing second and first at Road America. Musella is on 192 points, 36 points behind Musella. G3 Argyros has six consecutive top five finishes and he is fourth on 175 points. 

The still-absent Liam McNeilly remains fifth on 165 points despite missing the last five races. McNeilly is ten points ahead of Evan Cooley. Caleb Gafrarar is seventh on 139 points, ten points ahead of Indianapolis Raceway Park winner Anthony Martella.

U.S. F2000 will race on Friday July 4 at 2:05 p.m. The second race of the weekend will be Saturday July 5 at 4:20 p.m. The final race of the triple-header will be Sunday July 6 at 8:20 a.m. All three races are scheduled for 20 laps or 40 minutes.

Fast Facts

This will be the seventh IndyCar race to take place on July 6, and the first since Juan Pablo Montoya won at Pocono in 2014. It was Montoya's first victory since returning to IndyCar.

This Sunday will also mark the 22nd anniversary of Bryan Herta scoring his first victory for the Andretti Green Racing organization at Kansas Speedway. It is also the 17th anniversary of Ryan Hunter-Reay winning at Watkins Glen for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. For both drivers, this was their third career victories.

Chip Ganassi Racing and Team Penske each have 12 Mid-Ohio victories.

Americans have won six of the last 13 Mid-Ohio races. American drivers had not won any of the 14 Mid-Ohio races prior to this stretch. 

The only driver to pick up a first career victory at Mid-Ohio was Charlie Kimball in 2013. 

In the last two races, the winner has led eight laps or fewer, and in four of nine races this season the winner has led fewer than 15 laps.

The fewest laps led for a Mid-Ohio winner is ten by Bobby Rahal in 1986. In only four Mid-Ohio races has the winner led fewer than 20 laps (Johnny Rutherford 1980, Rahal 1986, Roberto Guerrero 1997 and Al Unser, Jr. 1995).

In nine consecutive Mid-Ohio races, the final lead change has occurred with over 20 laps remaining. 

In only five Mid-Ohio races has the final lead change occurred with ten laps or fewer remaining (1986 - ten laps to go, 1987 - ten laps to go, 1995 - four laps to go, 2007 - nine laps to go, 2016 - six laps to go).

The average starting position for a Mid-Ohio winner is 3.414 with a median of second. 

Eight of the last ten Mid-Ohio races have been won from the front row. 

Sixteen of 41 Mid-Ohio races have been won from pole position. Twenty-five Mid-Ohio races have been won from the front row, including five of the last six races.

The average number of lead changes in a Mid-Ohio race is 4.707 with a median of five.

Five of the last six Mid-Ohio races have had five lead changes or fewer. 

Every Mid-Ohio race has had at least one lead change.

The average number of cautions for a Mid-Ohio race is 1.9 with a median of two. The average number of caution laps is 7.15 with a median of 6.5. 

Seven Mid-Ohio races have been caution-free. Another ten Mid-Ohio races have had only one caution, including the last two Mid-Ohio races. Nine of the last ten Mid-Ohio races have had two cautions or fewer.

Predictions

Álex Palou makes it seven victories and he will lead at least 50 laps in the process. Scott Dixon will be on the podium. At least one driver will gain at least ten spots from their starting position. Josef Newgarden will be the best finishing Penske driver. A.J. Foyt Racing's top five streak will come to an end. Every team will make three stops. Christian Lundgaard is again the top finishing Arrow McLaren driver. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing will have all three of its cars finish better than their starting positions. There will be at least one case where a top five runner gets a pit lane penalty. Sleeper: Felix Rosenqvist.