The fourth IndyCar team preview will take a look at A.J. Foyt Racing. Not a lot happened in 2018. This team keeps trying to figure out what it is and continues to struggle to get out of IndyCar's basement. After changing both its drivers for two consecutive seasons the team has retained its 2018 lineup for another season but that leaves little to be excited about.
2018 A.J. Foyt Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 6th (Toronto)
Poles: 0
Championship Finish: 16th (Tony Kanaan), 18th (Matheus Leist)
2019 Drivers:
Matheus Leist - #4 ABC Supply Co. Chevrolet
The Brazilian's rookie season started with a surprise qualifying run at St. Petersburg with Leist ending up third on the grid. It didn't take long for Leist to suffer an electrical issue and fall to the back of the field and 16 laps into his IndyCar career he was in the barrier exiting turn three. And that kind of set up Leist's season. He had a pit mishap at Phoenix where he infamously spun around on three tires.
Outside of that, Leist had a respectable showing at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway with him qualifying 11th, top of the rookie field and only one position off his teammate. In the race, he completed all 200 laps and finished 13th.
Most of his results were mediocre from there out. The days that stand out were the bad ones where a fire ended his Texas race after five laps, a devastating blow only made worse that it is the team's home race. The only other time he made it out of round one of qualifying at a road or street course was at Toronto where, just like St. Petersburg, he got through in changing conditions but only started 12th and in the race fell to 15th.
Leist's best shot at a top ten finish was at Pocono but a miscalculation on fuel strategy forced him to make a stop late and fall to 11th, his best result of the season.
Numbers to Remember:
7: Leist was the seventh rookie since reunification to run majority of the races and not have a top ten finish joining the likes of Jaime Camara, Mario Romancini, Ana Beatriz, James Jakes, Sebastián Saavedra and Josef Newgarden.
16.8: Leist's average finish in 2018.
17.5833: The average of the career average finish of those other six drivers.
18.8: The average of the career average finish of the five drivers not named Josef Newgarden.
Predictions/Goals:
Keep the bar low. Leist is more likely to be remembered with the likes of Camara, Romancini, Beatriz, Jakes and Saavedra than Newgarden.
He is only 20 years old but Foyt has a history of rushing a driver into a seat off minimal Indy Lights experience and once again it appears the team was not ahead of the curve and grabbing a star in the making early but taking a driver far from full maturation.
His third place starting position at St. Petersburg was a pure fluke in changing conditions. There was not a race during the entirety of 2018 where Leist caught your eye for something positive. He didn't get in many incidents and to be fair to him there were no brain fades that made him seem out of his element. He got into the barrier at St. Petersburg but that was after experiencing an electrical issue off the start. The fire at Texas was out of his control and he parked the car at Iowa. Other than those three races he got to the end of every race with minimal hardship... besides his boneheaded pit incident at Phoenix.
Leist has fulfilled bringing the car home but the pace is not there and the grid has only gotten stronger. I don't see him moving up but could he possibly fall back from 18th in the championship? It seems to be lining up that way. His best result was after a third of the field was taken out before lap eight at Pocono. There is no reason to think he is going to get one top ten finish this season. I think Leist is going to be another driver that enters A.J. Foyt Racing and is spat out after two seasons.
The goal should be not to get fired. What will that include? He started inside the top fifteen only four times in 2018. I think he has to get that number up to at least six or seven and four or five of those have to come in the first half of the season. He is going to need a top ten finish but if he can improve his average finish and get within touching distance of his teammate in average finish, let's say within a position, then I think he may save his job but I do not think he will improve his results enough to justify a third season.
Tony Kanaan - #14 ABC Supply Co. Chevrolet
The season started out promising for Kanaan. He started tenth in his first race with A.J. Foyt Racing and he went on to finish 11th. A pair of eighth place finishes followed at Phoenix and Long Beach but from there his season was stuck in neutral.
An electrical glitch at Barber knocked him off the lead lap and he was a mid-pack runner in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. The Indianapolis 500 seemed to be Kanaan's one great hope for the 2018 season and it started out looking like Kanaan could be in the conversation for the victory. He went from tenth to the front and led 19 laps but a deflating tire forced an extra pit stop and dropped him to the back. He worked his way back into the top ten before a spin in turn two ended his race 13 laps early.
He would use a three-stop strategy in the second Belle Isle race to go from 22nd to seventh but there were few good days ahead. He brushed the wall at Texas after starting sixth, knocking both Foyt cars out within 31 laps of Super Tex's home race.
Kanaan would not start in the top ten again in 2018 and his only top ten finish would be sixth at Toronto, a race where he had cautions and attrition go in his favor. A throttle issue ended his day at Pocono after 16 laps and he ended the year with the worst average starting position and second-worst average finishing position of his IndyCar career.
Numbers to Remember:
4: Top ten finishes in 2018, the fewest in a single season in Kanaan's 21 seasons.
10: Starts away from passing A.J. Foyt for second most starts in IndyCar history.
20: Consecutive races without a top five finish entering 2019.
27: Longest drought in Kanaan's career between top five finishes (Michigan 1999 to Motegi 2001).
Predictions/Goals:
I think the goal is to end that top five drought as soon as possible but I do not think that will be the case and I think Kanaan will surpass his longest drought in that category. His one saving grace may be the Indianapolis 500 and last year it would not have been a surprise if he had finished in the top five. Kanaan had a really good car at Indianapolis before he had to make that extra pit stop. Foyt produced two really good cars for Indianapolis last year and they don't have to give Kanaan a car that puts him on the front row, the team just needs to give him a decent car and Kanaan will do the rest.
It is hard to come up with goals and predictions for a man nearing the end of his career. The results aren't close to where they were ten years ago. I want to be realistic and that is I think Kanaan can improve over his 2018 results but he isn't going to break back into the top ten of the championship, not after what we saw last year. In his final year with Ganassi in 2017, Kanaan cracked the top ten in the championship by seven points over Max Chilton and his only top five finishes were fifth at Indianapolis, second at Texas after he took out half the field and fifth at Pocono. Chilton's only top five finish that season was fourth at Indianapolis.
In 2018, Kanaan had the worst average starting position of his career at 14.9 and second-worst average finishing position of his career at 13.8. The field is getting younger and faster each year. It would not be crazy if all the full-time rookies finished ahead of Kanaan in the championship. I do not think that will be the case but Kanaan at best may improve to 14th in the championship but that might be asking much.
I hate to say it but after the year Kanaan had in 2018, unless he has a big swing upward, I think it is going to be difficult to justify bringing him back full-time in 2020 especially if the likes of Marcus Ericsson, Colton Herta and Santino Ferrucci all finish ahead of him in the championship.
If I hate saying Kanaan's days may be numbered, I despise saying that, but after changing both drivers three years ago and changing both drivers again two years ago, Foyt may have to change both drivers going into 2020 and I despise saying that because I doubt the team is going to get it right. It needs to keep up with the rest of IndyCar and yet even its most ambitious moves leaves the team three steps behind.
The 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 10th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage will begin at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Covering All Motorsports. From Indianapolis to Le Mans, Daytona to Monaco.
Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Monday, February 11, 2019
Musings From the Weekend: Do Start Times Matter?
Rain keeps stealing the show in Daytona. William Byron won pole position for the Daytona 500 but a teammate took top honors in a rain-shortened Clash. A pair of winter series concluded this weekend, one in a stadium and the other during a sunny day in the Southern Hemisphere. Ken Roczen took the Supercross championship lead in Minneapolis but he has yet to win a race this season. IndyCar tested at Laguna Seca, where rain forced that session to be cut short but IndyCar will be back on track tomorrow for the first official test of the season from Circuit of the Americas. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.
Do Start Times Matters?
It is that time of the year when you scan over the schedules that you have been looking at for five or six months and actually start digesting what it says.
When it is first released, we are focused on where we are. Is there a new venue? Is there a returning venue? Then we focus on the dates. Is a race shifting toward the front of the schedule or closer to the end? Will one race be held during the heat of summer and feel like it is the face of the sun or will one race be early enough or late enough in the year where you will need to bring a heavy jacket and gloves? Then comes the start times and that is the point I reached over the past few days.
I have been pretty staunch when it comes to start times. If it is a Sunday and it either the Eastern or Central time zones, then there is no reason why it shouldn't be a 1:00 p.m. ET start and I would not mind if it was earlier than that. Most series do not share that same sentiment.
IndyCar is close on a few occasions. St. Petersburg and Austin will each start at 1:30 p.m. ET. The Road America race will be at 12:30 p.m. ET. The Indianapolis 500 will start at noon. Outside of that, the times are consistent but all over the board.
Six races will start at 3:30 p.m. ET this year for IndyCar. Laguna Seca will start at 3:00 p.m. and Pocono will start a half-hour earlier than that. Barber and Long Beach each start at 4:30 p.m. There are three Saturday night races and Iowa will start at 7:30 p.m. with Texas and Gateway each starting at 8:30 p.m.
NASCAR doesn't come close this year. The earliest start for a Cup race is 2:00 p.m. ET. Fourteen races will start at either 2:00 p.m. or 2:30 p.m. Thirteen of 36 races will start at either 3:00 p.m. or 3:30 p.m. The other nine races will either start at 6:00 p.m. (the 600 and the Southern 500), 7:00 p.m. (the Las Vegas Chase race) or 7:30 p.m. (both Richmond races, the first Kansas race, the July Daytona race, Kentucky and the August Bristol race).
Start times do matter. There is a reason why they are chosen but between the battle for television audience and at-track attendance, when you look at the size of both you wonder who is really winning?
Motorsports fans travel but they also don't travel. People will drive 300 miles round trip to see a race but if that race starts too late then they will not even bother. It is the one issue with all these series. Sometimes series and tracks rely too much on that crowd instead of branching out and trying to draw from the swarm of local people who are not going.
This group of people who have to make it to work on Monday but do not want to arrive home at midnight stay in and the television ratings are not spectacular but we are told the start time is selected for the best possible viewing audience. But is it really that much better? Granted, it is not like NASCAR ratings are down three million viewers because Pocono starts at 3:00 p.m. instead of 1:00 p.m. The problems run deeper than that but how many more people are actually watching? It is the same gripe we have had for over a decade now.
The start times aren't always for television. Tracks get a say. Barber seems like it should start earlier than 4:30 p.m. but that later start time allows for all the Road to Indy races to get in and it gives fans a full-day of racing. The same could be said for Toronto. Long Beach has to start at 4:30 p.m. It is on the West Coast. The Grand Prix of Indianapolis starts at 3:30 p.m. but that is also on a Saturday and people are more flexible when it comes to Saturdays.
Something about this offseason hit me and maybe this is acceptance kicking in after all these years of fighting the fruitless fight. Do the start times really matter? Do I really care if a race starts at 4:30 p.m.? Is it really killing me that Pocono is at 2:30 p.m. for IndyCar? I am going to watch anyway, same goes for most NASCAR races. What is the big deal with the start being two hours later than desired?
I have said it before; there are advantages to earlier start times. If you are staying home, a race ends, you can have dinner and you can enjoy your evening. If you are going to a race you will likely get home earlier and likely get home before sunset. In some cases it could be the difference between getting a hotel or not depending on how long the drive is.
But later start times are all that bad. You have the morning. You can get chores done, go get groceries and then end your day with the race.
It is also comes down to the type of person you are. I am a morning person and I prefer earlier race starts. I am up early. I don't want to have to wait nine hours between opening my eyes for the day and the green flag. I would rather wake up and know in six hours the race is going to start. But plenty of people wake up late and do not mind having a race start at 3:00 p.m. because they got up at 10:00 p.m.
Maybe it is a bit of acceptance that this isn't going to change and while I wish it were different it is not the end of the world.
There are still a few issues and I think these are reasonable qualms. For example, why is the NASCAR race from Pocono in July starting at 3:00 p.m. and the IndyCar race at Mid-Ohio starting at 3:30 p.m. on the same day? I know the IndyCar race will be on NBC but why split the deck? Either start the IndyCar race at 12:30 p.m. or 1:00 p.m. or have the NASCAR race start at that time. NBC could set itself up for a full day of racing with one race leading into another. Wouldn't it be better for both races if they were at separate times than simultaneous? I am sure there is a reason this is happening again and I am sure Mid-Ohio likes having the IndyCar race end the day.
But while there is still this one conflict, the schedules do avoid conflicts as much as possible, especially when both are on NBC. The IndyCar finale will be on NBC with no NASCAR race conflict, as the Cup race is the day before at Richmond.
In the 21st century, nothing seems set. Everything changes every five minutes. Every change is calculated to be better and each calculation seems to be just slightly different. Who knows? In three years every race might be starting at 10:00 a.m. ET or studies will say the best time to start a race is 6:00 p.m. on Saturday night and schedules will be shaken up massively.
There is no point in letting it bother you.
Champion From the Weekend
Liam Lawson won the Toyota Racing Series championship with a victory in the New Zealand Grand Prix.
Jean-Baptiste Dubourg clinched his fourth consecutive Andros Trophy championship with a third place finish at Stade de France.
Winners From the Weekend
You know about Liam Lawson and Jean-Baptiste Dubourg but did you know...
Jimmie Johnson won the NASCAR Cup Series exhibition race, the Clash from Daytona, his second time winning the event.
Marcus Armstrong and American Cameron Das split the first two Toyota Racing Series races from Feilding.
Olivier Panis and Aurélien Panis won the Andros Trophy race from Stade de France outside Paris.
Cooper Webb won the Supercross race from Minneapolis, his third victory of the season.
Coming Up This Weekend
Daytona 500 but before that two qualifying races where two cars will go home on Thursday night.
Rally Sweden.
Mexico ePrix.
Supercross is in Arlington.
Do Start Times Matters?
It is that time of the year when you scan over the schedules that you have been looking at for five or six months and actually start digesting what it says.
When it is first released, we are focused on where we are. Is there a new venue? Is there a returning venue? Then we focus on the dates. Is a race shifting toward the front of the schedule or closer to the end? Will one race be held during the heat of summer and feel like it is the face of the sun or will one race be early enough or late enough in the year where you will need to bring a heavy jacket and gloves? Then comes the start times and that is the point I reached over the past few days.
I have been pretty staunch when it comes to start times. If it is a Sunday and it either the Eastern or Central time zones, then there is no reason why it shouldn't be a 1:00 p.m. ET start and I would not mind if it was earlier than that. Most series do not share that same sentiment.
IndyCar is close on a few occasions. St. Petersburg and Austin will each start at 1:30 p.m. ET. The Road America race will be at 12:30 p.m. ET. The Indianapolis 500 will start at noon. Outside of that, the times are consistent but all over the board.
Six races will start at 3:30 p.m. ET this year for IndyCar. Laguna Seca will start at 3:00 p.m. and Pocono will start a half-hour earlier than that. Barber and Long Beach each start at 4:30 p.m. There are three Saturday night races and Iowa will start at 7:30 p.m. with Texas and Gateway each starting at 8:30 p.m.
NASCAR doesn't come close this year. The earliest start for a Cup race is 2:00 p.m. ET. Fourteen races will start at either 2:00 p.m. or 2:30 p.m. Thirteen of 36 races will start at either 3:00 p.m. or 3:30 p.m. The other nine races will either start at 6:00 p.m. (the 600 and the Southern 500), 7:00 p.m. (the Las Vegas Chase race) or 7:30 p.m. (both Richmond races, the first Kansas race, the July Daytona race, Kentucky and the August Bristol race).
Start times do matter. There is a reason why they are chosen but between the battle for television audience and at-track attendance, when you look at the size of both you wonder who is really winning?
Motorsports fans travel but they also don't travel. People will drive 300 miles round trip to see a race but if that race starts too late then they will not even bother. It is the one issue with all these series. Sometimes series and tracks rely too much on that crowd instead of branching out and trying to draw from the swarm of local people who are not going.
This group of people who have to make it to work on Monday but do not want to arrive home at midnight stay in and the television ratings are not spectacular but we are told the start time is selected for the best possible viewing audience. But is it really that much better? Granted, it is not like NASCAR ratings are down three million viewers because Pocono starts at 3:00 p.m. instead of 1:00 p.m. The problems run deeper than that but how many more people are actually watching? It is the same gripe we have had for over a decade now.
The start times aren't always for television. Tracks get a say. Barber seems like it should start earlier than 4:30 p.m. but that later start time allows for all the Road to Indy races to get in and it gives fans a full-day of racing. The same could be said for Toronto. Long Beach has to start at 4:30 p.m. It is on the West Coast. The Grand Prix of Indianapolis starts at 3:30 p.m. but that is also on a Saturday and people are more flexible when it comes to Saturdays.
Something about this offseason hit me and maybe this is acceptance kicking in after all these years of fighting the fruitless fight. Do the start times really matter? Do I really care if a race starts at 4:30 p.m.? Is it really killing me that Pocono is at 2:30 p.m. for IndyCar? I am going to watch anyway, same goes for most NASCAR races. What is the big deal with the start being two hours later than desired?
I have said it before; there are advantages to earlier start times. If you are staying home, a race ends, you can have dinner and you can enjoy your evening. If you are going to a race you will likely get home earlier and likely get home before sunset. In some cases it could be the difference between getting a hotel or not depending on how long the drive is.
But later start times are all that bad. You have the morning. You can get chores done, go get groceries and then end your day with the race.
It is also comes down to the type of person you are. I am a morning person and I prefer earlier race starts. I am up early. I don't want to have to wait nine hours between opening my eyes for the day and the green flag. I would rather wake up and know in six hours the race is going to start. But plenty of people wake up late and do not mind having a race start at 3:00 p.m. because they got up at 10:00 p.m.
Maybe it is a bit of acceptance that this isn't going to change and while I wish it were different it is not the end of the world.
There are still a few issues and I think these are reasonable qualms. For example, why is the NASCAR race from Pocono in July starting at 3:00 p.m. and the IndyCar race at Mid-Ohio starting at 3:30 p.m. on the same day? I know the IndyCar race will be on NBC but why split the deck? Either start the IndyCar race at 12:30 p.m. or 1:00 p.m. or have the NASCAR race start at that time. NBC could set itself up for a full day of racing with one race leading into another. Wouldn't it be better for both races if they were at separate times than simultaneous? I am sure there is a reason this is happening again and I am sure Mid-Ohio likes having the IndyCar race end the day.
But while there is still this one conflict, the schedules do avoid conflicts as much as possible, especially when both are on NBC. The IndyCar finale will be on NBC with no NASCAR race conflict, as the Cup race is the day before at Richmond.
In the 21st century, nothing seems set. Everything changes every five minutes. Every change is calculated to be better and each calculation seems to be just slightly different. Who knows? In three years every race might be starting at 10:00 a.m. ET or studies will say the best time to start a race is 6:00 p.m. on Saturday night and schedules will be shaken up massively.
There is no point in letting it bother you.
Champion From the Weekend
Liam Lawson won the Toyota Racing Series championship with a victory in the New Zealand Grand Prix.
Jean-Baptiste Dubourg clinched his fourth consecutive Andros Trophy championship with a third place finish at Stade de France.
Winners From the Weekend
You know about Liam Lawson and Jean-Baptiste Dubourg but did you know...
Jimmie Johnson won the NASCAR Cup Series exhibition race, the Clash from Daytona, his second time winning the event.
Marcus Armstrong and American Cameron Das split the first two Toyota Racing Series races from Feilding.
Olivier Panis and Aurélien Panis won the Andros Trophy race from Stade de France outside Paris.
Cooper Webb won the Supercross race from Minneapolis, his third victory of the season.
Coming Up This Weekend
Daytona 500 but before that two qualifying races where two cars will go home on Thursday night.
Rally Sweden.
Mexico ePrix.
Supercross is in Arlington.
Friday, February 8, 2019
2019 IndyCar Team Preview: Dale Coyne Racing
Our third IndyCar team preview takes us to everybody's favorite little team, Dale Coyne Racing. Year two with Sébastien Bourdais proved to be a successful season after the 2017 season was abbreviated after Bourdais' accident and subsequently injuries qualifying for the Indianapolis 500. Bourdais did not have one teammate for this season with the likes of Pietro Fittipaldi, Zachary Claman De Melo and Santino Ferrucci splitting the second full-time car throughout the season. This year, Ferrucci will be full-time.
2018 Dale Coyne Racing Review
Wins: 1 (St. Petersburg)
Poles: 1 (Phoenix)
Championship Finishes: 7th (Sébastien Bourdais). 23rd (Zachary Claman De Melo), 26th (Pietro Fittipaldi), 27th (Santino Ferrucci)
Sébastien Bourdais - #18 Seal Masters Honda
It was a new year but same result when it came to St. Petersburg. While it was not the thrashing Bourdais put on in 2017, he did have to fight from behind, this year from 14th on the grid. He set himself up to be third on the final restart and when Robert Wickens and Alexander Rossi came together, the door opened for Bourdais to take the victory. The momentum continued into Phoenix where he took a surprise pole position. The race started well but on his first pit stop he slid into a crew member and left him with a penalty he could not over come. At Long Beach, Bourdais was in the top five and when his teammate Claman De Melo got into the barrier, Bourdais tried to dive into the pit lane but he missed making it before the pit lane was closed and his service forced him to serve another penalty, dropping him to a 13th place finish.
He had a hard fought battle at Barber for fifth in the closing laps with Scott Dixon and he beat the New Zealander to the line. A fourth place finish followed in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and one year after an accident while setting the fastest time for the first qualifying day, Bourdais qualified fifth for the Indianapolis 500. Unfortunately, in the race Bourdais had an accident end his day and begin a rough summer. His only top ten finish over the seven races from Indianapolis to Toronto was eighth at Texas.
It appeared Bourdais was not going to get out of his funk at Mid-Ohio. He started 24th after bringing out a red flag on his first lap of the qualifying session. There were no cautions in the race but that did not stop from going from 24th to sixth in one of the best performances of the 2018 season. He followed this with a fourth place finish at Pocono and another battle with Dixon, this one going to the New Zealander. He spun out on lap one at Gateway. Wing damage at the start of Portland shuffled him back but every caution went in his favor and he finished third. The year closed with a sixth place finish at Sonoma.
Numbers to Remember:
108: Laps led in 2018, only the second time Bourdais has led over 100 laps in a season since returning to IndyCar in 2011.
0: Laps led in the final 11 races of 2018.
23: The most consecutive starts without a lap led in Bourdais' career from Barber 2011 to São Paulo 2013.
Predictions/Goals:
We have heralded Bourdais and Coyne for shooting above their combined weight the last two seasons and after coming off seventh in the championship, the best non-big three team, there is only one way to go but entering that mighty title fight is not for the faint of heart. It is difficult and we see very infrequent non-big three teams fighting for the title.
Bourdais can do it with Coyne but as I said last year it means Bourdais and the team has to be perfect in every race. The Frenchman has to win three to four times, have eight to ten podium finishes and cannot afford to have more than two results outside the top ten. That cannot be the expectation. That is not realistic. We know bad days happen and we know Coyne is a few steps behind the likes of Penske, Ganassi and Andretti.
If there is one thing that cost Bourdais a title shot last year was the imbalance of his season. He started on fire but a bobble and collision with the barrier in the Indianapolis 500 started the rough patch to his season. He had one top ten finish in seven races from Indianapolis to Toronto. In that span he dropped from third to 11th in the championship and right when it seemed the slide would continue at Mid-Ohio when he started 24th out of 24 cars he put on one of the performances of the season and drove to sixth in a caution-free race. He ended the year with four top ten finishes from the final five races.
Bourdais cannot have that kind of slide again. He pretty much needs to start every road and street course race in the top ten or at least make it out of the first round of qualifying. The team carried over its oval prowess from 2017 to 2018 but the poor results came from self-inflicted wounds and those have to be limited. The team did not make many mistakes in 2018 and a few were solely on the shoulders of Bourdais. He has to hit his marks and not his crew members when it comes to pit stops especially when he is leading a race or in the top five.
A top ten championship finish is likely but it will be difficult to ascend higher than seventh when you have three Penskes, four Andrettis, Scott Dixon with the anticipated arrival of Felix Rosenqvist at Ganassi and then the likes of Graham Rahal and James Hinchcliffe all out on track as well. Bourdais could finish behind all those drivers above and that would put him 12th in the championship. The middle is tight in IndyCar and one or two bad results can swing you from a push for a top five spot to outside the top ten.
Santino Ferrucci - #19 Dale Coyne Racing Honda
Ferrucci started the 2018 season in Formula Two with Trident Racing. He did not score any points in his first three races but went on to finish sixth in the sprint race from Baku. He would not score any points in the next six races but he would score points in both races from the Red Bull Ring with a tenth in the feature race and seventh in the sprint.
The next round would be Ferrucci's last in Formula Two. At Silverstone, he finished 16th in the feature race and was disqualified from the sprint race after being deemed to have deliberately forced teammate Arjun Maini off track. He also made contact with Maini's car on the cool down lap and was found to have been driving whilst texting in the paddock. On top of all this, Ferrucci missed a mandatory FIA drug test. Ferrucci was fired from Trident after the incident and ordered to pay €502,000 to the team after failed payments.
Ferrucci did make his IndyCar debut at Belle Isle in-between the Monaco and France Formula Two rounds. He was running well in the first race before Charlie Kimball made contact with him in turn seven. He qualified ahead of Bourdais in the second Belle Isle race and the race was going better but Ferrucci spun on cold tires exiting the pit lane. He kept the car going but a possible top ten finish was only a 20th place result.
After his unceremonious Formula Two exit, he returned for the final two IndyCar races. He was holding his own at Portland before fuel pressure issues ruined his race. In the Sonoma finale, he ran respectable on his way to an 11th place finish.
Numbers to Remember:
16: Retirements out of 100 starts between European Formula 3, GP3 and Formula Two.
11.566: Average finish over the 83 races finished in Ferrucci's European junior formula career.
1,484: Days between Ferrucci's most recent victory, a Toyota Racing Series race at Manfeild Autocourse on February 15, 2015 and the St. Petersburg season opener.
Predictions/Goals:
Dale Coyne Racing has taken on the underdog role quite well and it will continue to be trying to punch above its weight in 2019. Bourdais will continue fighting with the big boys and Ferrucci may surprise some people. Nothing will come easy for this team and it has nothing to hang its head about if it gets the most it can out of its resources.
The 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 10th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage will begin at 1:00 p.m. ET.
2018 Dale Coyne Racing Review
Wins: 1 (St. Petersburg)
Poles: 1 (Phoenix)
Championship Finishes: 7th (Sébastien Bourdais). 23rd (Zachary Claman De Melo), 26th (Pietro Fittipaldi), 27th (Santino Ferrucci)
Sébastien Bourdais - #18 Seal Masters Honda
It was a new year but same result when it came to St. Petersburg. While it was not the thrashing Bourdais put on in 2017, he did have to fight from behind, this year from 14th on the grid. He set himself up to be third on the final restart and when Robert Wickens and Alexander Rossi came together, the door opened for Bourdais to take the victory. The momentum continued into Phoenix where he took a surprise pole position. The race started well but on his first pit stop he slid into a crew member and left him with a penalty he could not over come. At Long Beach, Bourdais was in the top five and when his teammate Claman De Melo got into the barrier, Bourdais tried to dive into the pit lane but he missed making it before the pit lane was closed and his service forced him to serve another penalty, dropping him to a 13th place finish.
He had a hard fought battle at Barber for fifth in the closing laps with Scott Dixon and he beat the New Zealander to the line. A fourth place finish followed in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and one year after an accident while setting the fastest time for the first qualifying day, Bourdais qualified fifth for the Indianapolis 500. Unfortunately, in the race Bourdais had an accident end his day and begin a rough summer. His only top ten finish over the seven races from Indianapolis to Toronto was eighth at Texas.
It appeared Bourdais was not going to get out of his funk at Mid-Ohio. He started 24th after bringing out a red flag on his first lap of the qualifying session. There were no cautions in the race but that did not stop from going from 24th to sixth in one of the best performances of the 2018 season. He followed this with a fourth place finish at Pocono and another battle with Dixon, this one going to the New Zealander. He spun out on lap one at Gateway. Wing damage at the start of Portland shuffled him back but every caution went in his favor and he finished third. The year closed with a sixth place finish at Sonoma.
Numbers to Remember:
108: Laps led in 2018, only the second time Bourdais has led over 100 laps in a season since returning to IndyCar in 2011.
0: Laps led in the final 11 races of 2018.
23: The most consecutive starts without a lap led in Bourdais' career from Barber 2011 to São Paulo 2013.
Predictions/Goals:
We have heralded Bourdais and Coyne for shooting above their combined weight the last two seasons and after coming off seventh in the championship, the best non-big three team, there is only one way to go but entering that mighty title fight is not for the faint of heart. It is difficult and we see very infrequent non-big three teams fighting for the title.
Bourdais can do it with Coyne but as I said last year it means Bourdais and the team has to be perfect in every race. The Frenchman has to win three to four times, have eight to ten podium finishes and cannot afford to have more than two results outside the top ten. That cannot be the expectation. That is not realistic. We know bad days happen and we know Coyne is a few steps behind the likes of Penske, Ganassi and Andretti.
If there is one thing that cost Bourdais a title shot last year was the imbalance of his season. He started on fire but a bobble and collision with the barrier in the Indianapolis 500 started the rough patch to his season. He had one top ten finish in seven races from Indianapolis to Toronto. In that span he dropped from third to 11th in the championship and right when it seemed the slide would continue at Mid-Ohio when he started 24th out of 24 cars he put on one of the performances of the season and drove to sixth in a caution-free race. He ended the year with four top ten finishes from the final five races.
Bourdais cannot have that kind of slide again. He pretty much needs to start every road and street course race in the top ten or at least make it out of the first round of qualifying. The team carried over its oval prowess from 2017 to 2018 but the poor results came from self-inflicted wounds and those have to be limited. The team did not make many mistakes in 2018 and a few were solely on the shoulders of Bourdais. He has to hit his marks and not his crew members when it comes to pit stops especially when he is leading a race or in the top five.
A top ten championship finish is likely but it will be difficult to ascend higher than seventh when you have three Penskes, four Andrettis, Scott Dixon with the anticipated arrival of Felix Rosenqvist at Ganassi and then the likes of Graham Rahal and James Hinchcliffe all out on track as well. Bourdais could finish behind all those drivers above and that would put him 12th in the championship. The middle is tight in IndyCar and one or two bad results can swing you from a push for a top five spot to outside the top ten.
Santino Ferrucci - #19 Dale Coyne Racing Honda
Ferrucci started the 2018 season in Formula Two with Trident Racing. He did not score any points in his first three races but went on to finish sixth in the sprint race from Baku. He would not score any points in the next six races but he would score points in both races from the Red Bull Ring with a tenth in the feature race and seventh in the sprint.
The next round would be Ferrucci's last in Formula Two. At Silverstone, he finished 16th in the feature race and was disqualified from the sprint race after being deemed to have deliberately forced teammate Arjun Maini off track. He also made contact with Maini's car on the cool down lap and was found to have been driving whilst texting in the paddock. On top of all this, Ferrucci missed a mandatory FIA drug test. Ferrucci was fired from Trident after the incident and ordered to pay €502,000 to the team after failed payments.
Ferrucci did make his IndyCar debut at Belle Isle in-between the Monaco and France Formula Two rounds. He was running well in the first race before Charlie Kimball made contact with him in turn seven. He qualified ahead of Bourdais in the second Belle Isle race and the race was going better but Ferrucci spun on cold tires exiting the pit lane. He kept the car going but a possible top ten finish was only a 20th place result.
After his unceremonious Formula Two exit, he returned for the final two IndyCar races. He was holding his own at Portland before fuel pressure issues ruined his race. In the Sonoma finale, he ran respectable on his way to an 11th place finish.
Numbers to Remember:
16: Retirements out of 100 starts between European Formula 3, GP3 and Formula Two.
11.566: Average finish over the 83 races finished in Ferrucci's European junior formula career.
1,484: Days between Ferrucci's most recent victory, a Toyota Racing Series race at Manfeild Autocourse on February 15, 2015 and the St. Petersburg season opener.
Predictions/Goals:
In his few appearances during the 2019 season, Ferrucci showed flashes of promise. He stepped into the car at Belle Isle, one of the roughest circuits on the schedule with a draining doubleheader format to boot, and his debut weekend went respectably well. He qualified next to Bourdais on row nine and was three positions ahead of him on the grid for race two. At Portland, Ferrucci was keeping up with Bouradis and Pietro Fittipaldi and was on the cusp of the top ten when a fuel pressure issue derailed his race. In the finale, Ferrucci went from 20th to 11th.
Robert Wickens has set the benchmark for rookies for the next three or four seasons especially for drivers coming from European backgrounds. Wickens didn't just hop into an IndyCar and light the world on fire. Remember when he was sitting in for Mikhail Aleshin during Friday at Road America in 2017? Wickens was toward the bottom of the timesheet and it makes sense for a guy whose only laps in the car was in a less than competitive ride swap with James Hinchcliffe. However, after he was formally given the ride, spent time with the team and got testing miles, he rose to the top.
I am not saying Ferrucci is going to be regularly in the top ten after limited testing but this will be his seat and he will get more time in the car. Ferrucci held his own with a physically battered Pietro Fittipaldi in the final two rounds of 2018 and Fittipaldi had a few tests under his belt but likely less seat time than originally planned before his injury.
This is going to be a fascinating rookie class with the likes of Ferrucci, Rosenqvist and Marcus Ericsson all entered with lengthy stints in Europe and other international series while Patricio O'Ward and Colton Herta enter fresh off the Road to Indy.
Fittipaldi averaged 15.1667 points a race last year while Claman De Melo averaged 13.555 points. In Ferrucci's four starts he averaged 16.5 points. The double points from the Sonoma race significantly bumps that number as 38 of Ferrucci's 66 points came from the finale and he averaged 9.333 points through his first three starts. I think Ferrucci has to be shooting to get around 19 points a race, similar to the pace Zach Veach posted last year and he should aim to be in the top three of the rookies. There is no shame if Rosenqvist tops him. Many think Rosenqvist could very well mirror Wickens' 2018 season but if Ferrucci can top both Road to Indy graduates and possibly even the Formula One veteran in Ericsson then that should quiet many critics.
Dale Coyne Racing has taken on the underdog role quite well and it will continue to be trying to punch above its weight in 2019. Bourdais will continue fighting with the big boys and Ferrucci may surprise some people. Nothing will come easy for this team and it has nothing to hang its head about if it gets the most it can out of its resources.
The 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 10th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage will begin at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Thursday, February 7, 2019
2019 IndyCar Team Preview: Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing
Our second 2019 IndyCar Team Preview takes us to the team that won the penultimate race of the 2018 season. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing scored another victory but it was a trying year for the team. While it won a race and still had a driver finish in the top ten of the championship, the 2018 saw no great improvements from the year before. This came after the team expanded to a two-car operation, bringing Takuma Sato back into the fold and pairing him with Graham Rahal.
2018 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Review
Wins: 1 (Portland)
Poles: 0
Championshop Finishes: 8th (Graham Rahal), 12th (Takuma Sato)
2019 Drivers:
Graham Rahal - #15 United Rentals/Total Honda
The year started off on the wrong foot in qualifying for the St. Petersburg race. Rahal brought out a red flag and had to start 24th out of 24 cars. In the race, Rahal made plenty of passes and with the help of a few cautions found himself in the top ten. When Robert Wickens and Alexander Rossi made contact in turn one on the final restart, it allowed Rahal to slide into a second place finish. After a respectable ninth place finish at Phoenix, he started fifth at Long Beach and ran into the back of Simon Pagenaud at the start. This led to a penalty that shuffled him to the back of the field but with passes and cautions falling his way he was able to recover to a fifth place finish.
Rahal would score top ten finishes in each of the first six races and he was in the top five when he clipped the curb and ended up sailing into the barrier in the first Belle Isle race. He recovered to finish fifth the next day and at Texas he went from 20th on the grid to a sixth place finish. The momentum remains in his favor in the summer with a sixth at Road America and a seventh at Iowa. He had a hiccup at Toronto when he got caught in an accident and he had a good showing at his home race with a ninth at Mid-Ohio.
The season ended with a rough patch of results. He got into the rear of Spencer Pigot at the start at Pocono and dropped four laps down. Gateway was a mediocre night with a tenth place result. He had nowhere to go at the start of the Portland race and was one of four cars significantly damaged on that opening lap crash. His season ended with a battery failure at Sonoma.
Numbers to Remember:
1: Podium finish in 2018 after having six, four and three podium finishes in the previous three seasons respectively.
3: Finishes of 23rd in the 2018 season
6: Consecutive seasons completing over 2,000 laps. Only Simon Pagenaud has as many consecutive seasons with 2,000 laps completed.
58.82: Percentage of races Rahal finished on the lead lap in 2018, his lowest since 44.4444% in 2013.
Predictions/Goals:
Rahal's 2018 season was very similar to Simon Pagenaud's last year. It was a respectable season, he got good results and was toward the front of the pack in most of the races but looking back there wasn't a race that Rahal could have won and got away from him. His only podium finish at St. Petersburg came after being in the fortunate place of fourth position on a restart and Robert Wickens and Alexander Rossi getting together opened the door to slide into second. He didn't lead more than 12 laps in a race last year.
Where Rahal and the entire RLLR organization have to improve is qualifying. Rahal was behind from the green flag at most races. He started outside the top ten in nine of 17 races. He started outside the top fifteen in five of those races. The crazy thing is Rahal didn't stay at the back. His runner-up finish at St. Petersburg came from 24th on the grid. He went from 15th to 7th at Barber, 17th to ninth at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, 30th to tenth in the Indianapolis 500 and 20th to sixth at Texas. His only top five starting position was fifth at Long Beach and he finished fifth.
The odd thing is his qualifying results improved towards the end of the year but the results took a step back. It didn't help he retired from the final two races, Portland after having nowhere to go in that first lap incident and his lost a battery at Sonoma, but there needs to be a better balance across the season. He had ten top ten finishes through the first eleven races. He had two top ten finishes and four finishes outside the top twenty in the final six races.
We know Rahal can be a championship contender and obviously he wants to get back to that level. It is a tough field and getting back to in touching distance of the top is an accomplished in itself.
Takuma Sato - #30 Panasonic/Mi-Jack Honda
Six years after his first stint with RLLR, Sato came in off his best season in his IndyCar tenure. His fifth place starting position at St. Petersburg was a promising start but unfortunately Sato was the one on the receiving end from a punt from behind and this came from Scott Dixon of all people. Sato managed to finish 12th. A few less than stellar days followed at Phoenix and Long Beach and better days were had at Barber and the Grand Prix of Indianapolis.
Sato's Indianapolis 500 defense ended early. Just over 100 miles into the race, Sato made contact with the slower car of James Davison. It was an accident where Sato had nowhere to go when he entered turn three. He bounced back with a fifth in the first Belle Isle race and the summer was kind of Sato. He scored top ten finishes at Texas, Road America and Iowa, the latter two were top five finishes and Iowa was a third place finish.
The next few races were a low point of the season. He made contact with the barrier at Toronto, was punted again while in the top ten, this time from Max Chilton at Mid-Ohio and he was caught in the early accident at Pocono. After ninth at Gateway, Sato played strategy into his favor at Portland and timing was on his side when he made his final stop moments before a caution came out and he got out ahead of Ryan Hunter-Reay. Hunter-Reay would pressure Sato down the stretch but Sato held on for the victory. Like his teammate, Sonoma was an early day to the showers when his engine expired after 15 laps.
Numbers to Remember:
3: The 2018 season was Sato's third season with two podium finishes. He has never had more than two podium finishes in one season.
4: Top five finishes in 2018, the same number as in 2017, and tying the most top five finishes he has had in a single season.
8: Sato has at least one top five finish in eight consecutive seasons. This will be his tenth season in IndyCar.
100: Races running at the finish out of 152 starts.
Predictions/Goals:
Every year we have to preview Takuma Sato and every year I write the same thing: We know who Takuma Sato is. And for a while that was because we knew Sato would tear up two or three cars a season and have races where he would start fourth and finish 17th because he ran into someone or spun off on his own or get the strategy wrong and fall like a rock.
But Takuma Sato has been different in the last few seasons. He isn't tearing up cars at the same rate. He had a few accidents last season but he had nowhere to go at Indianapolis when he made contact with James Davison and the same can be said for the Pocono accident. He is still quick. I just don't think Sato can be a title contender but he can be a solid driver and getting back into the top ten of the championship is not an unrealistic goal. The problem is there are about 16 drivers that could finish in the top ten of the championship so there is stiff competition.
While being known for his qualifying ability, 2018 was an off year for Sato but as I said before the entire RLLR organization was off in qualifying at every race. Sato started fifth in the season opener and didn't start better than seventh the rest of the season. Allen McDonald has joined RLLR and he has become famous putting cars on pole position for the Indianapolis 500 but one has to hope his touch will lift the cars up the starting order at the other 15 venue as well.
Sato could finish anywhere from eight to 16th in the championship and none of those results would be a surprise. It will all come down to whether Sato can qualify and stay at the front and if he can limit those bad days.
IndyCar has a hierarchy of the big three teams of Penske, Ganassi and Andretti and then everyone else is competing for fourth. Every year seems to be a rotation. At the start of the DW12-era, Schmidt Peterson Motorsports was in that fourth position with Simon Pagenaud then RLLR stepped up and Ed Carpenter Racing was there with Josef Newgarden. Last year, the top non-big three driver in the championship was Sébastien Bourdais of Dale Coyne Racing.
It has been a constant fight for fourth but none have been able to put up a consistent fight with the top three. This will be another season with the likes of RLLR, SPM, DCR and ECR trying to go toe-to-toe with the big boys while also having to fight with each other as well. It is a daunting task for those teams to overcome and makes it monumentally more difficult when it comes to making a championship push.
The 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 10th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage will begin at 1:00 p.m. ET.
2018 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Review
Wins: 1 (Portland)
Poles: 0
Championshop Finishes: 8th (Graham Rahal), 12th (Takuma Sato)
2019 Drivers:
Graham Rahal - #15 United Rentals/Total Honda
The year started off on the wrong foot in qualifying for the St. Petersburg race. Rahal brought out a red flag and had to start 24th out of 24 cars. In the race, Rahal made plenty of passes and with the help of a few cautions found himself in the top ten. When Robert Wickens and Alexander Rossi made contact in turn one on the final restart, it allowed Rahal to slide into a second place finish. After a respectable ninth place finish at Phoenix, he started fifth at Long Beach and ran into the back of Simon Pagenaud at the start. This led to a penalty that shuffled him to the back of the field but with passes and cautions falling his way he was able to recover to a fifth place finish.
Rahal would score top ten finishes in each of the first six races and he was in the top five when he clipped the curb and ended up sailing into the barrier in the first Belle Isle race. He recovered to finish fifth the next day and at Texas he went from 20th on the grid to a sixth place finish. The momentum remains in his favor in the summer with a sixth at Road America and a seventh at Iowa. He had a hiccup at Toronto when he got caught in an accident and he had a good showing at his home race with a ninth at Mid-Ohio.
The season ended with a rough patch of results. He got into the rear of Spencer Pigot at the start at Pocono and dropped four laps down. Gateway was a mediocre night with a tenth place result. He had nowhere to go at the start of the Portland race and was one of four cars significantly damaged on that opening lap crash. His season ended with a battery failure at Sonoma.
Numbers to Remember:
1: Podium finish in 2018 after having six, four and three podium finishes in the previous three seasons respectively.
3: Finishes of 23rd in the 2018 season
6: Consecutive seasons completing over 2,000 laps. Only Simon Pagenaud has as many consecutive seasons with 2,000 laps completed.
58.82: Percentage of races Rahal finished on the lead lap in 2018, his lowest since 44.4444% in 2013.
Predictions/Goals:
Rahal's 2018 season was very similar to Simon Pagenaud's last year. It was a respectable season, he got good results and was toward the front of the pack in most of the races but looking back there wasn't a race that Rahal could have won and got away from him. His only podium finish at St. Petersburg came after being in the fortunate place of fourth position on a restart and Robert Wickens and Alexander Rossi getting together opened the door to slide into second. He didn't lead more than 12 laps in a race last year.
Where Rahal and the entire RLLR organization have to improve is qualifying. Rahal was behind from the green flag at most races. He started outside the top ten in nine of 17 races. He started outside the top fifteen in five of those races. The crazy thing is Rahal didn't stay at the back. His runner-up finish at St. Petersburg came from 24th on the grid. He went from 15th to 7th at Barber, 17th to ninth at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, 30th to tenth in the Indianapolis 500 and 20th to sixth at Texas. His only top five starting position was fifth at Long Beach and he finished fifth.
The odd thing is his qualifying results improved towards the end of the year but the results took a step back. It didn't help he retired from the final two races, Portland after having nowhere to go in that first lap incident and his lost a battery at Sonoma, but there needs to be a better balance across the season. He had ten top ten finishes through the first eleven races. He had two top ten finishes and four finishes outside the top twenty in the final six races.
We know Rahal can be a championship contender and obviously he wants to get back to that level. It is a tough field and getting back to in touching distance of the top is an accomplished in itself.
Takuma Sato - #30 Panasonic/Mi-Jack Honda
Six years after his first stint with RLLR, Sato came in off his best season in his IndyCar tenure. His fifth place starting position at St. Petersburg was a promising start but unfortunately Sato was the one on the receiving end from a punt from behind and this came from Scott Dixon of all people. Sato managed to finish 12th. A few less than stellar days followed at Phoenix and Long Beach and better days were had at Barber and the Grand Prix of Indianapolis.
Sato's Indianapolis 500 defense ended early. Just over 100 miles into the race, Sato made contact with the slower car of James Davison. It was an accident where Sato had nowhere to go when he entered turn three. He bounced back with a fifth in the first Belle Isle race and the summer was kind of Sato. He scored top ten finishes at Texas, Road America and Iowa, the latter two were top five finishes and Iowa was a third place finish.
The next few races were a low point of the season. He made contact with the barrier at Toronto, was punted again while in the top ten, this time from Max Chilton at Mid-Ohio and he was caught in the early accident at Pocono. After ninth at Gateway, Sato played strategy into his favor at Portland and timing was on his side when he made his final stop moments before a caution came out and he got out ahead of Ryan Hunter-Reay. Hunter-Reay would pressure Sato down the stretch but Sato held on for the victory. Like his teammate, Sonoma was an early day to the showers when his engine expired after 15 laps.
Numbers to Remember:
3: The 2018 season was Sato's third season with two podium finishes. He has never had more than two podium finishes in one season.
4: Top five finishes in 2018, the same number as in 2017, and tying the most top five finishes he has had in a single season.
8: Sato has at least one top five finish in eight consecutive seasons. This will be his tenth season in IndyCar.
100: Races running at the finish out of 152 starts.
Predictions/Goals:
Every year we have to preview Takuma Sato and every year I write the same thing: We know who Takuma Sato is. And for a while that was because we knew Sato would tear up two or three cars a season and have races where he would start fourth and finish 17th because he ran into someone or spun off on his own or get the strategy wrong and fall like a rock.
But Takuma Sato has been different in the last few seasons. He isn't tearing up cars at the same rate. He had a few accidents last season but he had nowhere to go at Indianapolis when he made contact with James Davison and the same can be said for the Pocono accident. He is still quick. I just don't think Sato can be a title contender but he can be a solid driver and getting back into the top ten of the championship is not an unrealistic goal. The problem is there are about 16 drivers that could finish in the top ten of the championship so there is stiff competition.
While being known for his qualifying ability, 2018 was an off year for Sato but as I said before the entire RLLR organization was off in qualifying at every race. Sato started fifth in the season opener and didn't start better than seventh the rest of the season. Allen McDonald has joined RLLR and he has become famous putting cars on pole position for the Indianapolis 500 but one has to hope his touch will lift the cars up the starting order at the other 15 venue as well.
Sato could finish anywhere from eight to 16th in the championship and none of those results would be a surprise. It will all come down to whether Sato can qualify and stay at the front and if he can limit those bad days.
IndyCar has a hierarchy of the big three teams of Penske, Ganassi and Andretti and then everyone else is competing for fourth. Every year seems to be a rotation. At the start of the DW12-era, Schmidt Peterson Motorsports was in that fourth position with Simon Pagenaud then RLLR stepped up and Ed Carpenter Racing was there with Josef Newgarden. Last year, the top non-big three driver in the championship was Sébastien Bourdais of Dale Coyne Racing.
It has been a constant fight for fourth but none have been able to put up a consistent fight with the top three. This will be another season with the likes of RLLR, SPM, DCR and ECR trying to go toe-to-toe with the big boys while also having to fight with each other as well. It is a daunting task for those teams to overcome and makes it monumentally more difficult when it comes to making a championship push.
The 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 10th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage will begin at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Wednesday, February 6, 2019
2019 IndyCar Team Preview: Team Penske
There is still over a month until the 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season opener from St. Petersburg but with a growing series we need an entire month to preview the participants and over the course of the next few weeks we will look at every team that will be on the grid.
Our first preview looks at Team Penske, the most successful team in IndyCar, which is coming off what would have been a terrific season for pretty much every other team on the grid but was a bit of a downer compared to other recent seasons.
2018 Team Penske Review
Wins: 6 (Phoenix, Barber, Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Indianapolis 500, Road America, Gateway)
Poles: 8 (Barber, Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Texas, Road America, Iowa, Toronto, Pocono, Portland)
Championship Finishes: 3rd (Will Power), 5th (Josef Newgarden), 6th (Simon Pagenaud)
2019 Drivers:
Josef Newgarden - #2 Verizon/Hitachi Chevrolet
Fresh off a championship in year one with Team Penske, Newgarden started his title defense far from a hangover with two victories in the first four races, including a dominant two days in the wet and dry at Barber Motorsports Park, his third victory in the last four visits to the track.
He headed into the Indianapolis 500 as the championship leader but the end of spring was left with a few average finishes while his title rivals picked up large sums of points. A pair of poor races at Belle Isle and at Texas, where he struggled with tire wear despite starting from pole position, saw Newgarden drop to fifth in the championship.
Summer started with a dominant day at Road America and what was turning into a historic beat down at Iowa before Newgarden and Tim Cindric decided to take the role of the hare and both were humiliated. Instead of winning a victory at the 7/8-mile oval, he finished fourth but jumped up to second in the championship. He was back in control at Toronto but the rough roads of Exhibition Place bounced him into the barrier coming to the green flag while leading and all he could salvage was a ninth place finish.
Despite two missed opportunities, Newgarden was still second in the championship but in the competitive world of IndyCar his stretch of eight consecutive top ten finishes saw him DROPPED from second to fifth in the championship.
Numbers to Remember:
3: Victories for Newgarden in 2018, most for a driver to unsuccessfully defend a championship since Scott Dixon won five in 2009.
4: Consecutive seasons leading more than 300 laps. He has led the most laps in two of those seasons and he has never been lower than third in laps led in any of those four seasons.
21: Laps led in the first three seasons of Newgarden's career.
Predictions/Goals:
When you improve you championship position in every year in IndyCar to the point you are champion you are bound to take a step back and 2018 ended up being that season, though he didn't fall far. He went from 23rd to 14th to 13th to seventh to fourth to first before he fell back to fifth.
He won three races but those were his only podium finishes. He did not get another top five finish until Iowa, when he finished fourth but led 229 laps and got caught napping, costing him a victory to James Hinchcliffe. A bright side to Newgarden's season is his qualifying record improved greatly and his 5.2 average starting position was his career best. He was running at the finish of every race, the first time that has happened in his career.
Newgarden has to find that little bit that he did not have in 2018. It isn't that he lost that much. The Iowa race was a massive brain fade. Toronto was a race he got caught off after he brushed the barrier while leading coming to a restart. He could have had five victories. Would that have made him champion? No but he still had a respectable season. He was in the championship conversion for the entire season but unlike 2017 he never took over and made himself the focus. It is kind of impressive he could have eight consecutive top ten finishes and drop three positions in the championship. It comes down to getting a few more victories but turning top five finishes into podium finishes and top ten finishes into top five finish.
Scott Dixon won the championship with a few races unexplainably going his way, most notable St. Petersburg and Gateway and two of Dixon's victories came in races where Newgarden had the pace but had something go wrong. Newgarden has to prevent the races where the bottom drops out but also put himself in better positions to capitalize when other hit adversity. The only race Newgarden really did that in 2018 was Phoenix and it ended up with a victory. Outside of that, it seemed like he was always behind his nearest championship competitors.
I do not think Newgarden is going to fall off the map. He is going to be solid. It is that last 5% that is the difference between a championship and a top five championship finish. He had it in 2017 and didn't have it in 2018. It is tough to get it when considering his teammates let alone the rest of the IndyCar grid.
Will Power - #12 Verizon Chevrolet
The season did not start off great for Power. He started second at St. Petersburg but spun in turn one and the first lap of the season and the best he could get in his recovery was tenth. A brush of the wall ended his day at Phoenix and Long Beach was a bright spot in the season, where Power caught a break and finished second after the likes of Sébastien Bourdais and Scott Dixon were penalized for pitting under yellow. However, things swung against Power in the wet at Barber where he hydroplaned into the pit wall and ended his hopes of victory early.
The second quarter of the season was some of Power's best driving. His first victory came in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis in a tire compound shuffle with Robert Wickens and Power had the right tires for the right stint. The race was the Indianapolis 500 and Power was one of the best drivers for the entire race. When it came time to flex he put himself in position to take the lead and runaway with it when it came time for the likes of Jack Harvey, Stefan Wilson and Oriol Servià to stop for a splash of fuel. Power took the Indianapolis 500 victory and the championship lead. A seventh and a second at Belle Isle assured Power would be the championship leader heading to Texas.
It went downhill from there. Power struggled with tire wear at Texas but managed it well only to have an accident with Zachary Claman De Melo end his night. He started second at Road America and the car broke on him coming to the green flag. He had a sixth at Iowa but Power had a handful of accidents at Toronto and couldn't seem to get out of the way. He left Canada fifth in the championship.
Results picked up back in the States. He had three consecutive podium finishes with a third at Mid-Ohio, a second at Pocono and a victory at Gateway, a race where Power's went all out and opened a gap to stop for a splash of fuel and still come out in second with a conserving Alexander Rossi in his sights and easily chased and passed. Right when it seemed he was back in the championship fight the mechanical issues caught him out from pole position at Portland and a trip to the tire barriers derailed his title hopes. The season ended with a third place finish at Sonoma.
Numbers to Remember:
8: Podium finishes in 2018, Power's most since he had nine in 2010 and 2011.
9: Consecutive seasons finishing in the top five of the championship.
10: Lead lap finishes for Power in 2018, his fewest since 2012.
Predictions/Goals:
It is really hard to see Will Power not winning another championship in his career. It wouldn't be a disappointment if it didn't happen. He has one championship, he had plenty of championship runs that ended up falling short, he is approaching the mountaintop when it comes to pole positions, he has surpassed the 30-victory mark and he got an Indianapolis 500 victory. His legacy is set but with his driving style and his ruthlessness a second title could be in the works in 2019.
What will it take to get that second title? He cannot have multiple horrible finishes like he has come accustomed to racking up in recent seasons. He had four finishes outside the top twenty last year. He had three finishes of 20th or worse in 2017. In 2016, he had three finishes in 20th. Despite this track record, he still has nine consecutive finishes in the top five of the championship.
We know he doesn't have to work on qualifying, his average starting position was 2.8 last year with ten front row starts and his worst starting position was seventh. The one thing that has bitten Power more in recent seasons has been mechanical issues and that is very uncharacteristic of Team Penske. It cost him at the start of Road America, where he started second, and Portland, where he started on pole position.
It is crazy to say but Power needs to pick it up on road and street courses. He has become a whiz on ovals and his less-than-stellar races have been on road and street courses in recent seasons. Of course, it seems like the mechanical issues seem to crop up more on the road and street courses. If this team can eliminate the problems that seem to disproportionate affect Power compared to other Team Penske drivers he will be in the championship fight and a second title will be within his grasp.
Simon Pagenaud - #22 Menards/DXC Technology Chevrolet
The Frenchman's season started off poor by Pagenaud's standard. A 13th at St. Petersburg was followed by a tenth at Phoenix despite starting second and a race where he didn't make it to turn one at Long Beach because Graham Rahal ran over him from behind. Things got better with three consecutive top ten finishes at Barber and the two Indianapolis races. He would have finished outside the top ten in both Belle Isle races had it not been for Alexander Rossi's blown tire while in second position, which elevated Pagenaud to tenth.
His first strong outing was Texas, where Pagenaud handled the tires better than the rest of the Penske drivers and stayed at the front. He was not able to keep up with Scott Dixon but held off a charging Rossi for second. He missed out on the second round of qualifying at Road America by 0.0003 seconds but he went from 14th to seventh in the race. After a solid eighth-place finish at Iowa, Pagenaud was at the front the entire race at Toronto but had nothing for Dixon and finished second again. Mid-Ohio put up a charge from 17th to eighth.
After the summer break he finished eighth at Pocono, a fourth at Gateway, another run from the back but this one with a few cautions helping him move from 22nd to sixth. Pagenaud ended the year with his tenth consecutive top ten finish with a fourth at Sonoma.
Numbers to Remember:
2: Consecutive seasons ending with ten consecutive top ten finishes.
31: Laps led in 2018, Pagenaud's fewest as a full-time driver since he led 19 laps as a rookie in 2007. He led zero laps in his three substitute appearances in 2011 for the injured/absent Ana Beatriz, Justin Wilson and Simona de Silvestro.
4: Only four champions since 1996 led fewer than 31 laps in the season before a championship (excluding rookies and Dario Franchitti, who ran NASCAR in 2008 and won the title in 2009). Those champions were Jimmy Vasser in 1996, who led 20 laps the year before, Greg Ray in 1999, ho led 23 laps the year before, Buddy Lazier in 2000, who led five laps the year before and Scott Dixon in 2003, who led zero laps the year before in CART.
83: Laps needed to reach the 1,000 laps led milestone.
Predictions/Goals:
Win a race! I have said it before but Pagenaud was really good in 2018 but there was not a race he could have won. This wasn't 2015 Pagenaud where he seemed off and we struggled to make sense of it in his first year with Penske but why you are used to penciling Pagenaud to have one day flexing his muscle, it didn't really occur in 2018.
If Pagenaud repeats what he did in 2019 he will likely have a race or two fall his way. He is at the front, he is in the right position in nearly every race and he typically brings the car home and on the lead lap. I expect Pagenaud to take a step forward but not necessarily like he did from 2015 to 2016. Could he be a championship contender? Absolutely. It would be no surprise if any of the three Penske drivers won the championship.
While Pagenaud is gentle with equipment, having completed over 2,000 laps in six consecutive seasons, one area he could improve is his qualifying form. Pagenaud has 11 pole positions in his IndyCar career. Eight of those came in 2015. Newgarden found the Penske pace in 2018 but Pagenaud has fallen back since his championship. After averaging a starting position of 5.2 and 3.9 in his first two Penske seasons, he has dropped to 8.6 and 8.0 in the last two seasons.
Penske is coming off a down season. Six victories is a down season after having won ten races in each of the previous two years but it was still a year where all three drivers finished in the top six of the championship. In the DW12-era, Penske has had multiple drivers finish in the top five of the championship in every season. This team is going to be fine in 2019.
The 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 11th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage will begin at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Our first preview looks at Team Penske, the most successful team in IndyCar, which is coming off what would have been a terrific season for pretty much every other team on the grid but was a bit of a downer compared to other recent seasons.
2018 Team Penske Review
Wins: 6 (Phoenix, Barber, Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Indianapolis 500, Road America, Gateway)
Poles: 8 (Barber, Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Texas, Road America, Iowa, Toronto, Pocono, Portland)
Championship Finishes: 3rd (Will Power), 5th (Josef Newgarden), 6th (Simon Pagenaud)
2019 Drivers:
Josef Newgarden - #2 Verizon/Hitachi Chevrolet
Fresh off a championship in year one with Team Penske, Newgarden started his title defense far from a hangover with two victories in the first four races, including a dominant two days in the wet and dry at Barber Motorsports Park, his third victory in the last four visits to the track.
He headed into the Indianapolis 500 as the championship leader but the end of spring was left with a few average finishes while his title rivals picked up large sums of points. A pair of poor races at Belle Isle and at Texas, where he struggled with tire wear despite starting from pole position, saw Newgarden drop to fifth in the championship.
Summer started with a dominant day at Road America and what was turning into a historic beat down at Iowa before Newgarden and Tim Cindric decided to take the role of the hare and both were humiliated. Instead of winning a victory at the 7/8-mile oval, he finished fourth but jumped up to second in the championship. He was back in control at Toronto but the rough roads of Exhibition Place bounced him into the barrier coming to the green flag while leading and all he could salvage was a ninth place finish.
Despite two missed opportunities, Newgarden was still second in the championship but in the competitive world of IndyCar his stretch of eight consecutive top ten finishes saw him DROPPED from second to fifth in the championship.
Numbers to Remember:
3: Victories for Newgarden in 2018, most for a driver to unsuccessfully defend a championship since Scott Dixon won five in 2009.
4: Consecutive seasons leading more than 300 laps. He has led the most laps in two of those seasons and he has never been lower than third in laps led in any of those four seasons.
21: Laps led in the first three seasons of Newgarden's career.
Predictions/Goals:
When you improve you championship position in every year in IndyCar to the point you are champion you are bound to take a step back and 2018 ended up being that season, though he didn't fall far. He went from 23rd to 14th to 13th to seventh to fourth to first before he fell back to fifth.
He won three races but those were his only podium finishes. He did not get another top five finish until Iowa, when he finished fourth but led 229 laps and got caught napping, costing him a victory to James Hinchcliffe. A bright side to Newgarden's season is his qualifying record improved greatly and his 5.2 average starting position was his career best. He was running at the finish of every race, the first time that has happened in his career.
Newgarden has to find that little bit that he did not have in 2018. It isn't that he lost that much. The Iowa race was a massive brain fade. Toronto was a race he got caught off after he brushed the barrier while leading coming to a restart. He could have had five victories. Would that have made him champion? No but he still had a respectable season. He was in the championship conversion for the entire season but unlike 2017 he never took over and made himself the focus. It is kind of impressive he could have eight consecutive top ten finishes and drop three positions in the championship. It comes down to getting a few more victories but turning top five finishes into podium finishes and top ten finishes into top five finish.
Scott Dixon won the championship with a few races unexplainably going his way, most notable St. Petersburg and Gateway and two of Dixon's victories came in races where Newgarden had the pace but had something go wrong. Newgarden has to prevent the races where the bottom drops out but also put himself in better positions to capitalize when other hit adversity. The only race Newgarden really did that in 2018 was Phoenix and it ended up with a victory. Outside of that, it seemed like he was always behind his nearest championship competitors.
I do not think Newgarden is going to fall off the map. He is going to be solid. It is that last 5% that is the difference between a championship and a top five championship finish. He had it in 2017 and didn't have it in 2018. It is tough to get it when considering his teammates let alone the rest of the IndyCar grid.
Will Power - #12 Verizon Chevrolet
The season did not start off great for Power. He started second at St. Petersburg but spun in turn one and the first lap of the season and the best he could get in his recovery was tenth. A brush of the wall ended his day at Phoenix and Long Beach was a bright spot in the season, where Power caught a break and finished second after the likes of Sébastien Bourdais and Scott Dixon were penalized for pitting under yellow. However, things swung against Power in the wet at Barber where he hydroplaned into the pit wall and ended his hopes of victory early.
The second quarter of the season was some of Power's best driving. His first victory came in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis in a tire compound shuffle with Robert Wickens and Power had the right tires for the right stint. The race was the Indianapolis 500 and Power was one of the best drivers for the entire race. When it came time to flex he put himself in position to take the lead and runaway with it when it came time for the likes of Jack Harvey, Stefan Wilson and Oriol Servià to stop for a splash of fuel. Power took the Indianapolis 500 victory and the championship lead. A seventh and a second at Belle Isle assured Power would be the championship leader heading to Texas.
It went downhill from there. Power struggled with tire wear at Texas but managed it well only to have an accident with Zachary Claman De Melo end his night. He started second at Road America and the car broke on him coming to the green flag. He had a sixth at Iowa but Power had a handful of accidents at Toronto and couldn't seem to get out of the way. He left Canada fifth in the championship.
Results picked up back in the States. He had three consecutive podium finishes with a third at Mid-Ohio, a second at Pocono and a victory at Gateway, a race where Power's went all out and opened a gap to stop for a splash of fuel and still come out in second with a conserving Alexander Rossi in his sights and easily chased and passed. Right when it seemed he was back in the championship fight the mechanical issues caught him out from pole position at Portland and a trip to the tire barriers derailed his title hopes. The season ended with a third place finish at Sonoma.
Numbers to Remember:
8: Podium finishes in 2018, Power's most since he had nine in 2010 and 2011.
9: Consecutive seasons finishing in the top five of the championship.
10: Lead lap finishes for Power in 2018, his fewest since 2012.
Predictions/Goals:
It is really hard to see Will Power not winning another championship in his career. It wouldn't be a disappointment if it didn't happen. He has one championship, he had plenty of championship runs that ended up falling short, he is approaching the mountaintop when it comes to pole positions, he has surpassed the 30-victory mark and he got an Indianapolis 500 victory. His legacy is set but with his driving style and his ruthlessness a second title could be in the works in 2019.
What will it take to get that second title? He cannot have multiple horrible finishes like he has come accustomed to racking up in recent seasons. He had four finishes outside the top twenty last year. He had three finishes of 20th or worse in 2017. In 2016, he had three finishes in 20th. Despite this track record, he still has nine consecutive finishes in the top five of the championship.
We know he doesn't have to work on qualifying, his average starting position was 2.8 last year with ten front row starts and his worst starting position was seventh. The one thing that has bitten Power more in recent seasons has been mechanical issues and that is very uncharacteristic of Team Penske. It cost him at the start of Road America, where he started second, and Portland, where he started on pole position.
It is crazy to say but Power needs to pick it up on road and street courses. He has become a whiz on ovals and his less-than-stellar races have been on road and street courses in recent seasons. Of course, it seems like the mechanical issues seem to crop up more on the road and street courses. If this team can eliminate the problems that seem to disproportionate affect Power compared to other Team Penske drivers he will be in the championship fight and a second title will be within his grasp.
Simon Pagenaud - #22 Menards/DXC Technology Chevrolet
The Frenchman's season started off poor by Pagenaud's standard. A 13th at St. Petersburg was followed by a tenth at Phoenix despite starting second and a race where he didn't make it to turn one at Long Beach because Graham Rahal ran over him from behind. Things got better with three consecutive top ten finishes at Barber and the two Indianapolis races. He would have finished outside the top ten in both Belle Isle races had it not been for Alexander Rossi's blown tire while in second position, which elevated Pagenaud to tenth.
His first strong outing was Texas, where Pagenaud handled the tires better than the rest of the Penske drivers and stayed at the front. He was not able to keep up with Scott Dixon but held off a charging Rossi for second. He missed out on the second round of qualifying at Road America by 0.0003 seconds but he went from 14th to seventh in the race. After a solid eighth-place finish at Iowa, Pagenaud was at the front the entire race at Toronto but had nothing for Dixon and finished second again. Mid-Ohio put up a charge from 17th to eighth.
After the summer break he finished eighth at Pocono, a fourth at Gateway, another run from the back but this one with a few cautions helping him move from 22nd to sixth. Pagenaud ended the year with his tenth consecutive top ten finish with a fourth at Sonoma.
Numbers to Remember:
2: Consecutive seasons ending with ten consecutive top ten finishes.
31: Laps led in 2018, Pagenaud's fewest as a full-time driver since he led 19 laps as a rookie in 2007. He led zero laps in his three substitute appearances in 2011 for the injured/absent Ana Beatriz, Justin Wilson and Simona de Silvestro.
4: Only four champions since 1996 led fewer than 31 laps in the season before a championship (excluding rookies and Dario Franchitti, who ran NASCAR in 2008 and won the title in 2009). Those champions were Jimmy Vasser in 1996, who led 20 laps the year before, Greg Ray in 1999, ho led 23 laps the year before, Buddy Lazier in 2000, who led five laps the year before and Scott Dixon in 2003, who led zero laps the year before in CART.
83: Laps needed to reach the 1,000 laps led milestone.
Predictions/Goals:
Win a race! I have said it before but Pagenaud was really good in 2018 but there was not a race he could have won. This wasn't 2015 Pagenaud where he seemed off and we struggled to make sense of it in his first year with Penske but why you are used to penciling Pagenaud to have one day flexing his muscle, it didn't really occur in 2018.
If Pagenaud repeats what he did in 2019 he will likely have a race or two fall his way. He is at the front, he is in the right position in nearly every race and he typically brings the car home and on the lead lap. I expect Pagenaud to take a step forward but not necessarily like he did from 2015 to 2016. Could he be a championship contender? Absolutely. It would be no surprise if any of the three Penske drivers won the championship.
While Pagenaud is gentle with equipment, having completed over 2,000 laps in six consecutive seasons, one area he could improve is his qualifying form. Pagenaud has 11 pole positions in his IndyCar career. Eight of those came in 2015. Newgarden found the Penske pace in 2018 but Pagenaud has fallen back since his championship. After averaging a starting position of 5.2 and 3.9 in his first two Penske seasons, he has dropped to 8.6 and 8.0 in the last two seasons.
Penske is coming off a down season. Six victories is a down season after having won ten races in each of the previous two years but it was still a year where all three drivers finished in the top six of the championship. In the DW12-era, Penske has had multiple drivers finish in the top five of the championship in every season. This team is going to be fine in 2019.
The 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 11th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage will begin at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Monday, February 4, 2019
Musings From the Weekend: Is Reverting a Good Thing?
The New England Patriots are Super Bowl champions again. The third endurance race in five weeks did not disappoint and a native dazzled the home crowd at Bathurst. If you thought the 24 Hours of Daytona was held in horrendous conditions the Supercross race from San Diego somehow found a way to top that. NASCAR did some testing in Las Vegas and Kyle Busch was not happy. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.
Is Reverting a Good Thing?
We have had ten seasons of a reunited IndyCar and a lot look different since that 2008 season but a lot looks familiar.
The split increased the number of venues hosting American open-wheel races for about a decade. While we did not necessarily like the fact there were two series, the split did take the series to venues we otherwise would have never considered. During the split, venues such as St. Petersburg, Gateway and Iowa, all of which are on the current IndyCar schedule, hosted their first American open-wheel series race. Other popular venues that hosted their first races during that period not on the schedule include Richmond, Kentucky and Fontana and the split allowed for American open-wheel racing to return to Watkins Glen.
When Champ Car and the Indy Racing League merged in 2008, two schedules had to become one and there were venues left behind. It was not reasonable to have a 28-race calendar and some notable venues were sent to the sidelines. Road America, Portland, Cleveland and Toronto all did not make the initial cut.
Toronto returned in 2009 but Road America had to wait until 2016. Portland returned last year. Cleveland is still in the doghouse. These four venues were the only ones on the outside. Even with two series some venues were on the curb during the split. Phoenix was on neither schedule after 2005. Laguna Seca last hosted Champ Car in 2004. Michigan dropped open-wheel racing after 2007.
The good news is IndyCar will be returning to Laguna Seca after 15 years away. The series went back to Phoenix for three seasons. A return to Michigan is not in the cards but there is one venue that is back the mix.
During the IndyCar offseason, Surfers Paradise has emerged as a potential venue for the IndyCar series to return in the near future. The series last visited the Gold Coast in 2008 when the race was held as a non-championship round after Scott Dixon had been crowned champion at Chicagoland.
There has been a positive mood associated with Surfers Paradise's possible return and it is not just on this side of the Pacific. The local officials in Australia seem to be actively pursuing the series. If that is the case you have to think the local citizens will come out and support the race like they did for nearly two decades.
These returns have looked the same. IndyCar returned to Road America and the crowd has flooded around the 4.048-mile ribbon of asphalt. Portland was a boom in year one with a line at the gate. We will find out about Laguna Seca in September and unfortunately Phoenix had three years and it never sparked under the lights.
But the one interesting thing about IndyCar in recent seasons is the venues that have done the best have been tracks that the series is returning to after long hiatuses. These venues that were borderline forgotten have embraced IndyCar like it never left. Newer venues have not had the same kind of success. The crowd didn't stick around at Homestead, Kansas, Sonoma or Chicagoland, it never showed up for Atlanta or Houston and New Orleans was a mess.
Some other venues have been great but only had other issues keep them from turning into smash hits. Baltimore drew great crowds all three years it was on the calendar but financially could not work for the city. The same is true for Edmonton. Milwaukee did well in 2008, the first year of reunification, but the State Fair operator could not make the race work and revitalization attempts fell short. Watkins Glen struggled to get a crowd in multiple iterations.
It seems like the answer for IndyCar is to go back where the series had the most success. We will have to wait on Laguna Seca but if that turns out to be a hit and Surfers Paradise returns with the crowd it had to the final days in its first stint in the series then why doesn't the series embrace the schedule from nearly 25 years ago at IndyCar's height? But is that good for the series?
A lot of people love that Road America, Portland and Laguna Seca are back and many would be ecstatic if Surfers Paradise returned but IndyCar needs other venues to stick. IndyCar needs Austin to be successful. That is a big venue in a growing market and it fills a vacancy in the early portion of the IndyCar calendar. There aren't many venues that can fill late-March.
IndyCar needs its footprint to be larger than the same venues as 1993. The series has done well getting into new areas. Barber Motorsports Park has become a vibrant event early in the season and at the start not many people expected a race held in the middle of Alabama to have any life. IndyCar went to Iowa in 2007 and while the race might not get the same crowd size as it did at the start it still gets a crowd and is popular within the IndyCar fan base. St. Petersburg has become a staple at the start of every season.
At the same time, just because it hosted CART in the heyday of the Andrettis, the Unsers, Fittipaldi, Mansell, Tracy and Rahal, doesn't mean a race will be a hit today. We saw Phoenix never get back to that level. Milwaukee struggled despite being the venue to host the most races in American open-wheel racing history. There is no guarantee Michigan will have 50,000 people to watch an IndyCar return despite it being one of the best races with thrilling speeds and finishes. Cleveland was great but there are too many hurdles in the way of getting that temporary venue back on the schedule.
We aren't sure what Laguna Seca is going to be like. It hosted the season finale for many years during the days of CART but if it couldn't work for Sonoma, which is 45 minutes out side San Francisco, why should we believe it will be better two and half hours down the coast?
There is no easy answer when it comes to what places will be successful. We kept waiting for Milwaukee to get back to where it once was and it never happened but an hour north of the 1-mile oval Road America has been a smash. While Long Beach remains at a top level the crowd an hour east at Fontana was too fluid and dependent on weather.
If the series can come up with a fiscally sensible plan to return to Surfers Paradise then the series should go for it but IndyCar's past will not necessarily be the answer for the future. The series must remain open to but also be smart when it comes to going to venues currently not on the schedule. Homework must be done to make sure new events will be a success. The series should make sure there is a reasonable-sized crowd waiting before packing everyone up and going to a track or closing down a city center.
Returning to IndyCar's old haunts is only a golden ticket if the series makes sure the event will be viable for many years and the same goes with newer venues. IndyCar's leadership has taken the series a long way in a short period of time and my hope is the series can improve race selection in the coming years and that way we know when a race is added it will not disappear after a few seasons.
Winners From the Weekend
You know about the Super Bowl but did you know...
The #912 Earl Bamber Motorsport Porsche of Matt Campbell, Dennis Olsen and Dirk Werner won the Bathurst 12 Hour. It is Porsche's first victory in the event. The #51 Spirit of Race Ferrari of Paul Dalla Lana, Pedro Lamy and Mathias Lauda won in Class A-Am. The # 4 Grove Motorsport Porsche of Stephen Grove, Brenton Grove and Ben Barker won in Class B. The #20 T2 Racing by Liajen Motorsport MARC Ford Mustang II of Adam Hargraves, Daniel Jilesen and Steve Owen won in Class I. The #48 M Motorsport KTM of Justin McMillan, Dean Lillie, Glen Wood and Elliott Barbour won in Class C.
Liam Lawson, Lucas Auer, Esteban Muth and Marcus Armstrong split the four Toyota Racing Series races from Taupo.
Eli Tomac won the Supercross race from San Diego, his first victory of the season and it gave him the championship lead.
Coming Up This Weekend
The Toyota Racing Series closes at Feilding for the New Zealand Grand Prix.
Supercross heads North to the Land of 10,000 Lakes and Minneapolis.
NASCAR has an exhibition race and Daytona 500 qualifying.
Is Reverting a Good Thing?
We have had ten seasons of a reunited IndyCar and a lot look different since that 2008 season but a lot looks familiar.
The split increased the number of venues hosting American open-wheel races for about a decade. While we did not necessarily like the fact there were two series, the split did take the series to venues we otherwise would have never considered. During the split, venues such as St. Petersburg, Gateway and Iowa, all of which are on the current IndyCar schedule, hosted their first American open-wheel series race. Other popular venues that hosted their first races during that period not on the schedule include Richmond, Kentucky and Fontana and the split allowed for American open-wheel racing to return to Watkins Glen.
When Champ Car and the Indy Racing League merged in 2008, two schedules had to become one and there were venues left behind. It was not reasonable to have a 28-race calendar and some notable venues were sent to the sidelines. Road America, Portland, Cleveland and Toronto all did not make the initial cut.
Toronto returned in 2009 but Road America had to wait until 2016. Portland returned last year. Cleveland is still in the doghouse. These four venues were the only ones on the outside. Even with two series some venues were on the curb during the split. Phoenix was on neither schedule after 2005. Laguna Seca last hosted Champ Car in 2004. Michigan dropped open-wheel racing after 2007.
The good news is IndyCar will be returning to Laguna Seca after 15 years away. The series went back to Phoenix for three seasons. A return to Michigan is not in the cards but there is one venue that is back the mix.
During the IndyCar offseason, Surfers Paradise has emerged as a potential venue for the IndyCar series to return in the near future. The series last visited the Gold Coast in 2008 when the race was held as a non-championship round after Scott Dixon had been crowned champion at Chicagoland.
There has been a positive mood associated with Surfers Paradise's possible return and it is not just on this side of the Pacific. The local officials in Australia seem to be actively pursuing the series. If that is the case you have to think the local citizens will come out and support the race like they did for nearly two decades.
These returns have looked the same. IndyCar returned to Road America and the crowd has flooded around the 4.048-mile ribbon of asphalt. Portland was a boom in year one with a line at the gate. We will find out about Laguna Seca in September and unfortunately Phoenix had three years and it never sparked under the lights.
But the one interesting thing about IndyCar in recent seasons is the venues that have done the best have been tracks that the series is returning to after long hiatuses. These venues that were borderline forgotten have embraced IndyCar like it never left. Newer venues have not had the same kind of success. The crowd didn't stick around at Homestead, Kansas, Sonoma or Chicagoland, it never showed up for Atlanta or Houston and New Orleans was a mess.
Some other venues have been great but only had other issues keep them from turning into smash hits. Baltimore drew great crowds all three years it was on the calendar but financially could not work for the city. The same is true for Edmonton. Milwaukee did well in 2008, the first year of reunification, but the State Fair operator could not make the race work and revitalization attempts fell short. Watkins Glen struggled to get a crowd in multiple iterations.
It seems like the answer for IndyCar is to go back where the series had the most success. We will have to wait on Laguna Seca but if that turns out to be a hit and Surfers Paradise returns with the crowd it had to the final days in its first stint in the series then why doesn't the series embrace the schedule from nearly 25 years ago at IndyCar's height? But is that good for the series?
A lot of people love that Road America, Portland and Laguna Seca are back and many would be ecstatic if Surfers Paradise returned but IndyCar needs other venues to stick. IndyCar needs Austin to be successful. That is a big venue in a growing market and it fills a vacancy in the early portion of the IndyCar calendar. There aren't many venues that can fill late-March.
IndyCar needs its footprint to be larger than the same venues as 1993. The series has done well getting into new areas. Barber Motorsports Park has become a vibrant event early in the season and at the start not many people expected a race held in the middle of Alabama to have any life. IndyCar went to Iowa in 2007 and while the race might not get the same crowd size as it did at the start it still gets a crowd and is popular within the IndyCar fan base. St. Petersburg has become a staple at the start of every season.
At the same time, just because it hosted CART in the heyday of the Andrettis, the Unsers, Fittipaldi, Mansell, Tracy and Rahal, doesn't mean a race will be a hit today. We saw Phoenix never get back to that level. Milwaukee struggled despite being the venue to host the most races in American open-wheel racing history. There is no guarantee Michigan will have 50,000 people to watch an IndyCar return despite it being one of the best races with thrilling speeds and finishes. Cleveland was great but there are too many hurdles in the way of getting that temporary venue back on the schedule.
We aren't sure what Laguna Seca is going to be like. It hosted the season finale for many years during the days of CART but if it couldn't work for Sonoma, which is 45 minutes out side San Francisco, why should we believe it will be better two and half hours down the coast?
There is no easy answer when it comes to what places will be successful. We kept waiting for Milwaukee to get back to where it once was and it never happened but an hour north of the 1-mile oval Road America has been a smash. While Long Beach remains at a top level the crowd an hour east at Fontana was too fluid and dependent on weather.
If the series can come up with a fiscally sensible plan to return to Surfers Paradise then the series should go for it but IndyCar's past will not necessarily be the answer for the future. The series must remain open to but also be smart when it comes to going to venues currently not on the schedule. Homework must be done to make sure new events will be a success. The series should make sure there is a reasonable-sized crowd waiting before packing everyone up and going to a track or closing down a city center.
Returning to IndyCar's old haunts is only a golden ticket if the series makes sure the event will be viable for many years and the same goes with newer venues. IndyCar's leadership has taken the series a long way in a short period of time and my hope is the series can improve race selection in the coming years and that way we know when a race is added it will not disappear after a few seasons.
Winners From the Weekend
You know about the Super Bowl but did you know...
The #912 Earl Bamber Motorsport Porsche of Matt Campbell, Dennis Olsen and Dirk Werner won the Bathurst 12 Hour. It is Porsche's first victory in the event. The #51 Spirit of Race Ferrari of Paul Dalla Lana, Pedro Lamy and Mathias Lauda won in Class A-Am. The # 4 Grove Motorsport Porsche of Stephen Grove, Brenton Grove and Ben Barker won in Class B. The #20 T2 Racing by Liajen Motorsport MARC Ford Mustang II of Adam Hargraves, Daniel Jilesen and Steve Owen won in Class I. The #48 M Motorsport KTM of Justin McMillan, Dean Lillie, Glen Wood and Elliott Barbour won in Class C.
Liam Lawson, Lucas Auer, Esteban Muth and Marcus Armstrong split the four Toyota Racing Series races from Taupo.
Eli Tomac won the Supercross race from San Diego, his first victory of the season and it gave him the championship lead.
Coming Up This Weekend
The Toyota Racing Series closes at Feilding for the New Zealand Grand Prix.
Supercross heads North to the Land of 10,000 Lakes and Minneapolis.
NASCAR has an exhibition race and Daytona 500 qualifying.
Friday, February 1, 2019
2019 Bathurst 12 Hour Preview
We have reached February and the month starts with another endurance race. After experiencing the twice-around-the-clock events from Dubai and Daytona it is time for a race of half the distance but on an iconic circuit. For the 18th time the Bathurst 12 Hour will be held and the Mount Panorama Circuit hosts the opening round of the Intercontinental GT Challenge season for the fourth consecutive year.
Eight manufactures have committed to this year's Intercontinental GT Challenge season. Audi is back and will try to maintain its unbeaten record in this series, as it is three-for-three in the manufactures' championship. Mercedes-AMG was vice-champion to Audi last year and returns as well as Porsche and Bentley. BMW, Nissan, Ferrari and Honda are new manufactures to this year's championship. Honda will be absent from the Bathurst 12 Hour because the NSX GT3 Evo kit is not eligible for this race.
This year's race has 41 entries with 28 in Class A, the leading GT3 class. Class B has three Porsche 911 GT3 Cup cars, Class C has six GT4 cars and Class I for invitational cars has four entries, including one that has Paul Tracy paired with two-time Bathurst 12 Hour winner and one-time Bathurst 1000 winner Paul Morris.
This preview looks at the 28 Class A entries, which will be fighting for the overall victory. Unfortunately, two Class A entries have been withdrawn after accidents and those are covered below as well.
#2 Audi Sport Team Valvoline Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Christopher Mies, Christopher Haase, Markus Winkelhock
Why this car could win: Mies has won this race twice before and he and Haase have experience driving together. All three of these drivers have won the biggest endurance races from around the world and Audi is coming off winning this race for the third time last year. Winkelhock won the 2017 Intercontinental GT Challenge Drivers' championship. This car was third in Friday practice.
Why this car will not win: There have been four different manufactures that have won this race in the last four years and the last manufacture to win in consecutive years was Audi in 2011 and 2012.
#3 Melbourne Performance Centre Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Pete Storey, Gordon Sheddon, Matthew Neal
Why this car could win: It can't because Storey had an accident during a practice session and the car will not be repaired in time. Sheddon and Neal are British Touring Car champions. Sheddon ran the World Touring Car Cup season last year.
Why this car would not have won: While Sheddon had one Bathurst start a few years ago, his two co-drivers were making their Bathurst debut. I don't think they would have been able to compete with some of these much more experienced entries.
#6 Melbourne Performance Centre Lamborghini Huracán GT3
Drivers: Adrian Deitz, Julain Westwood, Cameron McConville, Tony D'Alberto
Why this car could win: McConville has six Bathurst 1000 podium finishes and he won a Bathurst 24 Hour before. D'Alberto also finished on the Bathurst 1000 podium a few years ago. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: McConville and D'Alberto cannot carry this car to victory.
#9 Audi Sport Team MPC Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Marc Cini, Lee Holdsworth, Dean Fiore
Why this car could win: All three have experience at Mount Panorama with Holdsworth having finished on the podium for the Bathurst 1000 before.
Why this car will not win: This is a good lineup but not a great lineup and Holdsworth and Fiore are coming off rough seasons in the Supercars Championship.
#11 Objective Racing McLaren 650S GT3
Drivers: Tony Walls, Warren Luff, Andrew Watson
Why this car could win: Walls and Luff have run together for many years and Luff has five Bathurst 1000 podium finishes in the last seven year including runner-up results the last two years. Watson has some Bathurst experience. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: Luff has yet to break through and get a race victory in the Bathurst 1000. A few years ago this team could get a victory but the competition has become really stiff.
#12 Competition Motorsports/McElrea Racing Porsche 911 GT3-R
Drivers: David Calvert-Jones, Kévin Estre, Jaxon Evans
Why this car could win: Calvert-Jones has experience in this race and has had some good outings before. Estre is a top driver and has won plenty for Porsche. Evans is a young driver but he is coming off the Porsche Carrera Cup Australia title and he won a race at Bathurst last year. This car rounded out the top five in Friday practice.
Why this car will not win: Surprisingly, Porsche has yet to win the Bathurst 12 Hour. Calvert-Jones has normally had four-drive lineups and I think that fourth driver would come in handy.
#18 KCMG Nissan GT-R Nismo GT3
Drivers: Alexandre Imperatori, Oliver Jarvis, Edoardo Liberati
Why this car could win: These three all ran the Dubai 24 Hour last month. All three of veterans of sports car racing and have run all around the globe. Nissan won this race four years ago. Jarvis is going to want to make up for the lost opportunity at the 24 Hours of Daytona.
Why this car will not win: Nissan's GT3 program hasn't been as strong on the international level since its won this race four years ago and won the Blancpain Endurance Series title that same year.
#19 Griffith Corp. Team Nineteen Black Falcon Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Mark Griffith, Yelmer Buurman, Christina Nielsen
Why this car could win: Buurman won the Dubai 24 Hour last month and Nielsen is a champion in IMSA's GTD class. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: This lineup does not have experience with each other, Nielsen is making her Bathurst debut and the Mercedes-AMG pool is deep.
#22 Audi Sport Team Valvoline Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Kelvin van der Linde, Garth Tander, Frédéric Vervisch
Why this car could win: Van der Linde and Vervisch have plenty of experience with Audi's GT3 operation. Van der Linde is a race winner. Vervisch is still climbing the ladder. Add to the lineup a three-time Bathurst 1000 winner and Bathurst 24 Hour winner in Tander and this team will be competing for the top step of the podium. These three ran last year's race together.
Why this car will not win: This is a deep field. Van der Linde is in his third endurance race on a third different continent in five weeks. Tander is north of 40 and he is coming off the worst Supercars Championship finish of his career.
#27 HubAuto Corsa Ferrari 488 GT3
Drivers: Nick Foster, Tim Slade, Nick Percat
Why this car could win: Percat has a fondness for Bathurst having won on his Bathurst 1000 debut and he has since added another two podium finishes at the track. Slade has had respectable results in the Supercars the last few seasons and Foster has gotten out on the international stage and done pretty good. On top of that, Ferrari has done well in this event and this car was second fastest in Friday practice.
Why this car will not win: There are not many Ferraris in the field and Ferrari has not had much success in the IGTC.
#29 Trofeo Motorsport Lamborghini Huracán GT3
Drivers: Jim Manolios, Benjamin Porter, Ivan Capelli, Dean Canto
Why this car could win: Canto and Capelli have been around the block a few times. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: This lineup is too amateur to win overall.
#34 Walkenhorst Motorsport BMW M6 GT3
Drivers: Christian Matias Krognes, Nicky Catsburg, Mikkel Jensen
Why this car could win: Krognes won last year in the Spa 24 Hours with this team. Catsburg has been a regular in BMW program for a few years now and he has won in many different series. Jensen has been developing as a sports car driver in recent years.
Why this car will not win: This lineup is too inexperience to win this race. All three are making their Bathurst debuts.
#35 KCMG Nissan GT-R Nismo GT3
Drivers: Katsumasa Chiyo, Matsuda Tsugio, Joshua Burdon
Why this car could win: Chiyo won this race in 2015 and Tsugio has been successful in Japan. Burdon is still getting accustomed to sports cars but has spent the last few years in LMP3.
Why this car will not win: Burdon is a weak link and Nissan might not be able to complete with Mercedes-AMG and Porsche.
Why this car could win: Mostert has won the Bathurst 1000 before. Farfus is coming off a big victory at the 24 Hours of Daytona. Before that Farfus has won in the DTM and has been stout in BMW's GT operation. Tomczyk was a DTM champion and he is learning in sports cars.
Why this car will not win: Farfus is coming over from Daytona and after such a high he might have a let down race and that would be understandable. Daytona was such an emotional experience; especially with the victory coming after the passing of long-time BMW Team Schnitzer team principal Charly Lamm. Add to that a transcontinental flight and everything is bound to catch up with you and slow you down. Add on top of all that, Tomczyk is a Bathurst rookie.
Why this car could win: They have won the FIA World Endurance Championship GTE-Am title. They have a lot of experience with one another and they just ran a Ferrari 488 GT3 at Daytona. These three ran this race last year.
Why this car will not win: This team will have a bit of jet lag. It is still an amateur lineup and is going up against not only professional lineups but Bathurst experienced drivers. Dalla Lana also had an accident in practice but the crew will attempt to repair the car.
#62 R-Motorsport Aston Martin Vantage GT3
Drivers: Jake Dennis, Matthieu Vaxivière, Marvin Kirchhöfer
Why this car could win: Dennis and Vaxiviére won last year in the Blancpain Endurance Series at Silverstone. All three drivers have moderately successful junior formula careers and are doing well in their transition to GT competition. Kirchhöfer did well last year in ADAC GT Masters with a third place championship finish. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: All three are new to Bathurst and Aston Martin has not regularly competed in this event.
#75 SunEnergy1 Racing Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Kenny Habul, Dominick Baumann, Thomas Jäger
Why this car could win: Tristan Vautier was supposed to be in this car and is coming off winning the International GT Challenge title but Vautier has come down with the flue. Baumann will replace him and this will be his Bathurst 12 Hour debut. Habul won the Bronze Drivers' championship last year in IGTC. These two finished second last year and Jäger won this race back in 2013.
Why this car will not win: Habul and Vautier had Jamie Whincup and Raffaele Maricello last year and no offense to Baumann and Jäger but they aren't Jamie Whincup and Raffaele Maricello. This lineup experienced a late shake up. It will be an uphill fight.
Why this car could win: Engel has experience at Mount Panorama and Stolz was in last year's race. Paffett is coming off a DTM title and he has been running in Formula E. This car was fourth quickest during Friday practice.
Why this car will not win: Paffett does not have much GT experience and no experience at Mount Panorama.
Why this car could win: Lago and Russell have run together in the Austrian GT Championship. Hazelwood is coming off his first full season in Supercars. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: This is a good lineup but there are many superior cars in this race.
#107 Bentley Team M-Sport Bentley Continental GT3
Drivers: Steven Kane, Jules Gounon, Jordan Pepper
Why this car could win: Gounon has won IGTC races before as he has won the Spa 24 Hours. These three got to run the back half of the Blancpain Endurance Series schedule last year together. Kane was on the overall podium in third in 2016 and 2017.
Why this car will not win: It has been a while since this car has won a race.
#108 Bentley Team M-Sport Bentley Continental GT3
Drivers: Andy Soucek, Maxime Soulet, Vincent Abril
Why this car could win: This trio has a lot of experience together and has won races in the Blancpain Endurance Series. Bentley has not won this race before but has come close.
Why this car will not win: Bentley's good races are too sporadic to think it could happen at this race.
#540 Black Swan Racing Porsche 911 GT3-R
Drivers: Tim Pappas, Jeroen Bleekemolen, Marc Lieb
Why this car could win: It can't win because Pappas suffered a massive accident in practice and the team has withdrawn the car. It is a shame because this team finished third last year with Luca Stolz as a fourth driver in this car. Pappas and Bleekemolen both raced in the 24 Hours of Daytona last week.
Why this car would not have won: The car was written off in a practice accident but I would have said Lieb is in pseudo-retirement and it seems this is his only race of choice each year. I am not sure that is enough to keep a driver fresh.
Why this car could win: It is on the grid and R-Motorsport has produced race winners before. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: Too many unknowns with this lineup.
Why this car could win: Reynolds and Youlden won the Bathurst 1000 in 2017. Reynolds won three races last year in Supercars including the final race of the season at Newcastle. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: When looking at other lineups, Shahin is one of the weaker third drivers.
#88 888 Mercedes-AMG Team Vodafone Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Craig Lowndes, Jamie Whincup, Shane van Gisbergen
Why this car could win: Between the three drivers they have 11 Bathurst 1000 victories, 11 Supercars championship and four Bathurst 12 Hour victories with each driver having won this race before.
Why this car will not win: Because it is too good to be true and the dream team is not always victorious. Also, this team made contact with the #51 Ferrari in that practice accident and while the team had minimal damage in comparison it is a minor setback.
#911 EBM Porsche 911 GT3-R
Drivers: Romain Dumas, Sven Müller, Mathieu Jaminet
Why this car could win: This lineup could win in any series in the world. Dumas has won in everything everywhere he has been. Müller and Jaminet are both hungry drivers and getting Porsche its first win in the Bathurst 12 Hour would boost their careers.
Why this car will not win: A few teams are stronger and this team is beat by a Bathurst-experience group.
#912 EBM Porsche 911 GT3-R
Drivers: Dirk Werner, Dennis Olsen, Matt Campbell
Why this car could win: Another strong lineup from Porsche and Campbell is a past Porsche Carrera Cup Australia champion and he is had a really strong year in the FIA WEC. Olsen is the defending Porsche Supercup champion.
Why this car will not win: Its sister car is stronger. I think either Porsche could win this race.
#999 Mercedes-AMG Team MANN FILTER GruppeM Racing Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Maximilian Buhk, Raffaele Marciello, Maximilian Götz
Why this car could win: All three drivers have won championships. Buhk has won titles in the Blancpain GT Series as has Marciello. Götz won an ADAC GT Masters title. Maricello did well last year in the IGTC and won at Suzuka. This car was quickest in Friday practice.
Why this car will not win: There are many good teams in this field. This field has at least eight cars that would not surprise me if they won this race.
The Bathurst 12 Hour will begin at 1:45 p.m. ET on Saturday February 2nd with the race continuing to 1:45 a.m. ET on Sunday February 3rd.
Eight manufactures have committed to this year's Intercontinental GT Challenge season. Audi is back and will try to maintain its unbeaten record in this series, as it is three-for-three in the manufactures' championship. Mercedes-AMG was vice-champion to Audi last year and returns as well as Porsche and Bentley. BMW, Nissan, Ferrari and Honda are new manufactures to this year's championship. Honda will be absent from the Bathurst 12 Hour because the NSX GT3 Evo kit is not eligible for this race.
This year's race has 41 entries with 28 in Class A, the leading GT3 class. Class B has three Porsche 911 GT3 Cup cars, Class C has six GT4 cars and Class I for invitational cars has four entries, including one that has Paul Tracy paired with two-time Bathurst 12 Hour winner and one-time Bathurst 1000 winner Paul Morris.
This preview looks at the 28 Class A entries, which will be fighting for the overall victory. Unfortunately, two Class A entries have been withdrawn after accidents and those are covered below as well.
#2 Audi Sport Team Valvoline Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Christopher Mies, Christopher Haase, Markus Winkelhock
Why this car could win: Mies has won this race twice before and he and Haase have experience driving together. All three of these drivers have won the biggest endurance races from around the world and Audi is coming off winning this race for the third time last year. Winkelhock won the 2017 Intercontinental GT Challenge Drivers' championship. This car was third in Friday practice.
Why this car will not win: There have been four different manufactures that have won this race in the last four years and the last manufacture to win in consecutive years was Audi in 2011 and 2012.
#3 Melbourne Performance Centre Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Pete Storey, Gordon Sheddon, Matthew Neal
Why this car could win: It can't because Storey had an accident during a practice session and the car will not be repaired in time. Sheddon and Neal are British Touring Car champions. Sheddon ran the World Touring Car Cup season last year.
Why this car would not have won: While Sheddon had one Bathurst start a few years ago, his two co-drivers were making their Bathurst debut. I don't think they would have been able to compete with some of these much more experienced entries.
Drivers: Adrian Deitz, Julain Westwood, Cameron McConville, Tony D'Alberto
Why this car could win: McConville has six Bathurst 1000 podium finishes and he won a Bathurst 24 Hour before. D'Alberto also finished on the Bathurst 1000 podium a few years ago. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: McConville and D'Alberto cannot carry this car to victory.
Drivers: Marc Cini, Lee Holdsworth, Dean Fiore
Why this car could win: All three have experience at Mount Panorama with Holdsworth having finished on the podium for the Bathurst 1000 before.
Why this car will not win: This is a good lineup but not a great lineup and Holdsworth and Fiore are coming off rough seasons in the Supercars Championship.
Drivers: Tony Walls, Warren Luff, Andrew Watson
Why this car could win: Walls and Luff have run together for many years and Luff has five Bathurst 1000 podium finishes in the last seven year including runner-up results the last two years. Watson has some Bathurst experience. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: Luff has yet to break through and get a race victory in the Bathurst 1000. A few years ago this team could get a victory but the competition has become really stiff.
Drivers: David Calvert-Jones, Kévin Estre, Jaxon Evans
Why this car could win: Calvert-Jones has experience in this race and has had some good outings before. Estre is a top driver and has won plenty for Porsche. Evans is a young driver but he is coming off the Porsche Carrera Cup Australia title and he won a race at Bathurst last year. This car rounded out the top five in Friday practice.
Why this car will not win: Surprisingly, Porsche has yet to win the Bathurst 12 Hour. Calvert-Jones has normally had four-drive lineups and I think that fourth driver would come in handy.
Drivers: Alexandre Imperatori, Oliver Jarvis, Edoardo Liberati
Why this car could win: These three all ran the Dubai 24 Hour last month. All three of veterans of sports car racing and have run all around the globe. Nissan won this race four years ago. Jarvis is going to want to make up for the lost opportunity at the 24 Hours of Daytona.
Why this car will not win: Nissan's GT3 program hasn't been as strong on the international level since its won this race four years ago and won the Blancpain Endurance Series title that same year.
Drivers: Mark Griffith, Yelmer Buurman, Christina Nielsen
Why this car could win: Buurman won the Dubai 24 Hour last month and Nielsen is a champion in IMSA's GTD class. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: This lineup does not have experience with each other, Nielsen is making her Bathurst debut and the Mercedes-AMG pool is deep.
Drivers: Kelvin van der Linde, Garth Tander, Frédéric Vervisch
Why this car could win: Van der Linde and Vervisch have plenty of experience with Audi's GT3 operation. Van der Linde is a race winner. Vervisch is still climbing the ladder. Add to the lineup a three-time Bathurst 1000 winner and Bathurst 24 Hour winner in Tander and this team will be competing for the top step of the podium. These three ran last year's race together.
Why this car will not win: This is a deep field. Van der Linde is in his third endurance race on a third different continent in five weeks. Tander is north of 40 and he is coming off the worst Supercars Championship finish of his career.
Drivers: Nick Foster, Tim Slade, Nick Percat
Why this car could win: Percat has a fondness for Bathurst having won on his Bathurst 1000 debut and he has since added another two podium finishes at the track. Slade has had respectable results in the Supercars the last few seasons and Foster has gotten out on the international stage and done pretty good. On top of that, Ferrari has done well in this event and this car was second fastest in Friday practice.
Why this car will not win: There are not many Ferraris in the field and Ferrari has not had much success in the IGTC.
Drivers: Jim Manolios, Benjamin Porter, Ivan Capelli, Dean Canto
Why this car could win: Canto and Capelli have been around the block a few times. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: This lineup is too amateur to win overall.
Drivers: Christian Matias Krognes, Nicky Catsburg, Mikkel Jensen
Why this car could win: Krognes won last year in the Spa 24 Hours with this team. Catsburg has been a regular in BMW program for a few years now and he has won in many different series. Jensen has been developing as a sports car driver in recent years.
Why this car will not win: This lineup is too inexperience to win this race. All three are making their Bathurst debuts.
Drivers: Katsumasa Chiyo, Matsuda Tsugio, Joshua Burdon
Why this car could win: Chiyo won this race in 2015 and Tsugio has been successful in Japan. Burdon is still getting accustomed to sports cars but has spent the last few years in LMP3.
Why this car will not win: Burdon is a weak link and Nissan might not be able to complete with Mercedes-AMG and Porsche.
#42 BMW Team Schnitzer BMW M6 GT3
Drivers: Augusto Farfus, Chaz Mostert, Martin TomczykWhy this car could win: Mostert has won the Bathurst 1000 before. Farfus is coming off a big victory at the 24 Hours of Daytona. Before that Farfus has won in the DTM and has been stout in BMW's GT operation. Tomczyk was a DTM champion and he is learning in sports cars.
Why this car will not win: Farfus is coming over from Daytona and after such a high he might have a let down race and that would be understandable. Daytona was such an emotional experience; especially with the victory coming after the passing of long-time BMW Team Schnitzer team principal Charly Lamm. Add to that a transcontinental flight and everything is bound to catch up with you and slow you down. Add on top of all that, Tomczyk is a Bathurst rookie.
#51 Spirit of Race Ferrari 488 GT3
Drivers: Paul Dalla Lana, Pedro Lamy, Mathias LaudaWhy this car could win: They have won the FIA World Endurance Championship GTE-Am title. They have a lot of experience with one another and they just ran a Ferrari 488 GT3 at Daytona. These three ran this race last year.
Why this car will not win: This team will have a bit of jet lag. It is still an amateur lineup and is going up against not only professional lineups but Bathurst experienced drivers. Dalla Lana also had an accident in practice but the crew will attempt to repair the car.
Drivers: Jake Dennis, Matthieu Vaxivière, Marvin Kirchhöfer
Why this car could win: Dennis and Vaxiviére won last year in the Blancpain Endurance Series at Silverstone. All three drivers have moderately successful junior formula careers and are doing well in their transition to GT competition. Kirchhöfer did well last year in ADAC GT Masters with a third place championship finish. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: All three are new to Bathurst and Aston Martin has not regularly competed in this event.
Drivers: Kenny Habul, Dominick Baumann, Thomas Jäger
Why this car could win: Tristan Vautier was supposed to be in this car and is coming off winning the International GT Challenge title but Vautier has come down with the flue. Baumann will replace him and this will be his Bathurst 12 Hour debut. Habul won the Bronze Drivers' championship last year in IGTC. These two finished second last year and Jäger won this race back in 2013.
Why this car will not win: Habul and Vautier had Jamie Whincup and Raffaele Maricello last year and no offense to Baumann and Jäger but they aren't Jamie Whincup and Raffaele Maricello. This lineup experienced a late shake up. It will be an uphill fight.
#77 Mercedes-AMG Team Craft Bamboo Black Falcon Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Maro Engel, Luca Stolz, Gary PaffettWhy this car could win: Engel has experience at Mount Panorama and Stolz was in last year's race. Paffett is coming off a DTM title and he has been running in Formula E. This car was fourth quickest during Friday practice.
Why this car will not win: Paffett does not have much GT experience and no experience at Mount Panorama.
#98 Matt Stone Racing Audi R8 LMS
Drivers: Todd Hazelwood, Roger Lago, David RussellWhy this car could win: Lago and Russell have run together in the Austrian GT Championship. Hazelwood is coming off his first full season in Supercars. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: This is a good lineup but there are many superior cars in this race.
Drivers: Steven Kane, Jules Gounon, Jordan Pepper
Why this car could win: Gounon has won IGTC races before as he has won the Spa 24 Hours. These three got to run the back half of the Blancpain Endurance Series schedule last year together. Kane was on the overall podium in third in 2016 and 2017.
Why this car will not win: It has been a while since this car has won a race.
Drivers: Andy Soucek, Maxime Soulet, Vincent Abril
Why this car could win: This trio has a lot of experience together and has won races in the Blancpain Endurance Series. Bentley has not won this race before but has come close.
Why this car will not win: Bentley's good races are too sporadic to think it could happen at this race.
Drivers: Tim Pappas, Jeroen Bleekemolen, Marc Lieb
Why this car could win: It can't win because Pappas suffered a massive accident in practice and the team has withdrawn the car. It is a shame because this team finished third last year with Luca Stolz as a fourth driver in this car. Pappas and Bleekemolen both raced in the 24 Hours of Daytona last week.
Why this car would not have won: The car was written off in a practice accident but I would have said Lieb is in pseudo-retirement and it seems this is his only race of choice each year. I am not sure that is enough to keep a driver fresh.
#760 R-Motorsport Aston Martin Vantage GT3-R
Drivers: Florian Kamelger, Andreas Bänzleger, Peter Leemhuis, Mathew PerryWhy this car could win: It is on the grid and R-Motorsport has produced race winners before. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: Too many unknowns with this lineup.
#777 The Bend Motorsports Park Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Yasser Shahin, David Reynolds, Luke YouldenWhy this car could win: Reynolds and Youlden won the Bathurst 1000 in 2017. Reynolds won three races last year in Supercars including the final race of the season at Newcastle. This car will not be eligible for IGTC points.
Why this car will not win: When looking at other lineups, Shahin is one of the weaker third drivers.
Drivers: Craig Lowndes, Jamie Whincup, Shane van Gisbergen
Why this car could win: Between the three drivers they have 11 Bathurst 1000 victories, 11 Supercars championship and four Bathurst 12 Hour victories with each driver having won this race before.
Why this car will not win: Because it is too good to be true and the dream team is not always victorious. Also, this team made contact with the #51 Ferrari in that practice accident and while the team had minimal damage in comparison it is a minor setback.
Drivers: Romain Dumas, Sven Müller, Mathieu Jaminet
Why this car could win: This lineup could win in any series in the world. Dumas has won in everything everywhere he has been. Müller and Jaminet are both hungry drivers and getting Porsche its first win in the Bathurst 12 Hour would boost their careers.
Why this car will not win: A few teams are stronger and this team is beat by a Bathurst-experience group.
Drivers: Dirk Werner, Dennis Olsen, Matt Campbell
Why this car could win: Another strong lineup from Porsche and Campbell is a past Porsche Carrera Cup Australia champion and he is had a really strong year in the FIA WEC. Olsen is the defending Porsche Supercup champion.
Why this car will not win: Its sister car is stronger. I think either Porsche could win this race.
Drivers: Maximilian Buhk, Raffaele Marciello, Maximilian Götz
Why this car could win: All three drivers have won championships. Buhk has won titles in the Blancpain GT Series as has Marciello. Götz won an ADAC GT Masters title. Maricello did well last year in the IGTC and won at Suzuka. This car was quickest in Friday practice.
Why this car will not win: There are many good teams in this field. This field has at least eight cars that would not surprise me if they won this race.
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