2021 NASCAR Cup Series Preview

Another February takes us to Daytona for the start of the NASCAR Cup Series season, but 2021 will be a different trip than previous Cup seasons. 

For starters, Speedweeks has been condensed to one week. The Clash will be tonight on the Daytona road course with Daytona 500 qualifying tomorrow and the Daytona 500 qualifying races taking place on Thursday before the 63rd Daytona 500 on Sunday. 

Since we are still in a pandemic, the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series calendar has already seen one amendment. Fontana was dropped and in its place the Daytona road course will take over the second spot in the 36-race season. The Daytona road course hosted its first Cup race last August in place of Watkins Glen.

After the Daytona road course, the season looks fairly familiar. Homestead moves to the third race of the season before the Western swing in March with Las Vegas and Phoenix. Atlanta will be the first race of spring and the Bristol dirt race closes out March and is the final race before the Easter break. 

Martinsville is the first night race of the season on Saturday April 10 before Richmond eight days later. Talladega and Kansas follow with a return of the spring Darlington race set for May 9. Dover's only race will be May 16 and the inaugural race at Circuit of the Americas in Austin will be on May 23. Charlotte hosts the Coca-Cola 600 again on Memorial Day weekend. 

Sonoma is the first race of June and the following week, on June 13, Texas will host the All-Star Race for the first time. 

The second new track on the schedule will be Nashville SuperSpeedway on June 20th with the Pocono doubleheader returning for the second consecutive year the following weekend. For the first time since August 12, 1956, the NASCAR Cup Series will head to Road America and this year's race will be on July 4. NASCAR returns to Atlanta on July 11 to try see how many drivers suffer heat stroke. Atlanta has two races for the first time since 2010. Loudon will be on July 18, the final round before the Olympic break. 

After the Olympics, NASCAR will run successive road course races. First will be Watkins Glen on August 8 and then the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course will follow. Michigan has only one race this year and it is the penultimate regular season race on August 22 with Daytona closing out the regular season on August 28. 

The Southern 500 opens the playoffs on September 5 with Richmond and Bristol rounding out round one. Las Vegas, Talladega and the Charlotte roval make up round two. Texas will leadoff the semifinal round ahead of Kansas and Martinsville. Phoenix will host the season finale on November 7.

Along with a new schedule, there are a few new teams and a few drivers in different seats. We will preview this season going over each entry for this year's Daytona 500 and weighing that driver's playoff chances as well as list where that driver is most likely to find victory lane.

Chartered Teams

Quin Houff - #00 Mane 'n Tail Chevrolet

Team: StarCom Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 33rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 39th (2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Same as last year. It is not going to happen.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Houff had three lead lap finishes in 2020: Michigan, Talladega and the Charlotte roval. To win, one must finish on the lead lap, so one of those three.

Kurt Busch - #1 Monster Energy/Gearwrench Chevrolet

Team: Chip Ganassi Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 10th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2017)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Busch has made the playoffs for eight consecutive seasons. He has won a race in seven consecutive seasons. He has scored at least 15 top ten finishes in six consecutive seasons. He does enough to make it every year, but he is caught between round of 12 and round of eight material. He made the round of eight last year after winning at Las Vegas. He also hasn't won multiple races in a season since 2015. He has not won three races in a season since 2005. Since his championship in 2004, Busch's only other top five championship finish was fourth in 2009. He will be somewhere between seventh and 13th in the championship, constantly good but never quite great.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Busch's last 13 victories have come at 13 different tracks and that dates back to 2009. His streak goes Texas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Sonoma, Dover, Martinsville, Richmond, Michigan, Pocono, Daytona, Bristol, Kentucky and Las Vegas. It almost lines up that the most likely place for victory is either a place he hasn't won at before or hasn't won at in a while. There are plenty of new tracks this year for Busch to choose from. 

Brad Keselowski - #2 Discount Tire/AutoTrader/MoneyLion/Keystone Light Ford

Team: Team Penske
2020 Championship Finish: 2nd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2014)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Keselowski will be there; it is just a matter of how far he will go. Last year, he was a finalist. The year before that he was bounced in the round of 12. He has won at least three races in five consecutive seasons, but only twice has he made the championship four. He has only three playoff race victories in that time. His seasons are front loaded with regular season success that does not carry over into the final months of the season. If he can win a few races later in the season, perhaps he can pull out a second championship, but until then you can pencil him in for somewhere between fifth and tenth in the championship.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Three of Keselowski's four victories came at high horsepower, low downforce racetracks. Any short track will do.

Austin Dillon - #3 Bass Pro Shops/Breztri Aerosphere/BetMGM Chevrolet

Team: Richard Childress Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 11th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2018)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Dillon made it last year after a fuel-only pit stop was the right call at Texas. He also had a stellar Southern 500 and Richmond playoff race to get out of round one but was eliminated after a woeful round two. He did not finish in the top ten in any of the final eight races of the season, but he had three two 11th-place finishes and two 12th-place finishes. Dillon did not show that kind of pace over the first 26 races of the season. Yet, he found that next gear in the final ten. I don't believe he can keep that up. He could edge his way into the top 16 on points, but I don't see him breaking into that next tier.

 
Most Likely Place for a Victory: That Richmond race came out of nowhere last year and he very well could have won it. He will get two cracks at Richmond in 2021. 

Kevin Harvick - #4 Busch/Mobil 1/Hunt Brothers Pizza Ford

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 5th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2007)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Harvick will be there and he will be a championship-contender. It is crushing that two poor races at Texas and Martinsville overshadowed a nine-victory season where Harvick completed all but three laps. It was a championship season that got away from him. Nine victories will be hard to replicate, but you don't need nine victories to be champion in this format. You can get away with five timely victories. He will in the thick of it again and feel confident that the misfortune of 2020 will not catch him again at the end of 2021.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Harvick has won the last three races at Michigan, two of the last three years at Loudon, two of the last three years at Atlanta, two of the last three years at Dover,  two of the last three Darlington races and three of the last four years at Texas. 

Kyle Larson - #5 NationsGuard/Cincinnati/Freightliner Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: 34th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2016, 2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Larson returns from his suspension after using a racial slur while competing in an iRacing event. During his suspension, Larson completed his sensitivity training, but also spent additional time working with former United States men's national team defender Tony Sanneh and Sanneh's foundation as well as Olympic gold medalist Jackie Joyner-Kersee to further his knowledge and participate in the community. He did compete in 2020, winning over 40 dirt races and he started 2021 with another Chili Bowl victory. Larson will have every pair of eyes on him and his dirt track success is one thing, but that doesn't mean he will jump right into a Cup car and pick up where he left off. He is with one of the best teams on the grid. I think he will win at least one or two races. After all, this is an audition in a car mostly funded out of Rick Hendrick's pocket. He needs to perform to get a second year with the team.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: The Bristol dirt race. Where else would we say? But Larson is one of probably four drivers we put in that first tier for that race and he could easily lose out and finish third. After seeing Hendrick's road course pace, I think he could win one of the seven on the schedule. Sonoma has historically been a track where Larson has been quick, but the results have not gone his way. This year could be different.

Ryan Newman - #6 Kohler Generators/Oscar Mayer/Castrol/Guaranteed Rate Ford

Team: Roush-Fenway Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 25th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2008)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Newman's 2020 season was altered after his accident in the Daytona 500. The pandemic allowed him to only miss three races, but he had one top ten finish in his final 32 starts. I feel like that accident has knocked him off his game and I am not sure he can turn it around.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: It is either Daytona, and complete the storybook comeback this weekend, or Talladega. I don't even have confidence he will run well in the Bristol dirt race. 

Corey LaJoie - #7 Schluter Systems/Youtheory Chevrolet

Team: Spire Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: 30th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 8th (2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Spire Motorsports is taking it seriously with one entry this year, as LaJoie will be full-time. He is still a driver's whose best average finish in a season is 25.6 and he has never started a race in the top 15. A playoff spot should elude him.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: As long as Daytona and Talladega exist, someone like LaJoie and Spire have a shot.

Tyler Reddick - #8 Lenovo/Caterpillar/Cheddars/BetMGM Chevrolet

Team: Richard Childress Racing
2021 Championship Finish: 19th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 27th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Reddick might have lost out Rookie of the Year to Cole Custer because Custer made the playoffs, but Reddick drew the most attention of the 2020 rookie class. The only problem is for all the praise he got, Reddick only had three top five finishes and nine top ten finishes. He had only two top ten finishes over the final 16 races of the season. I think he will be right about where he was in 2020.

 
Most Likely Place for a Victory: Homestead, if he remembers the correct race distance. 

Chase Elliott - #9 NAPA Auto Parts/Hooters/Llumar/Adrenaline Shot/Kelley Blue Book Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: 1st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 14th (2017)
2021 Playoff Prospects: The defending champion will take his title defense into the final ten races. With the schedule up to seven road course races, a lot of people are high on Elliott to win a second consecutive title, and though his numbers were off Harvick and Denny Hamlin's until the final races of the season, Elliott pulled it out. It is interesting have a young champion, something NASCAR really hasn't had since Kurt Busch in 2004. For the likes of Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex, Jr., their championships were culminations following lengthy careers full of heartbreak and disappointment. Each lifted weight off the back of those drivers. For Elliott, the pressure is to replicate while the likes of Harvick, Busch, Keselowski and Joey Logano are still at the top of their game and Hamlin continues to search for that first championship. This is especially true because Elliott drives for Hendrick, which saw Jeff Gordon win four championships and Jimmie Johnson win seven championships. I wonder if Elliott experiences a championship hangover and cannot keep up for a complete 36-race season.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Come on, we know the answer, road courses, but Elliott is pushing "win anywhere" territory. 

Aric Almirola - #10 Smithfield Ford

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 15th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 4th (2017)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Almirola does just enough to get in, but the results are underwhelming. Last year, he picked up five consecutive top five finishes from Homestead to Indianapolis. Then in the final 20 races he had just one top five finish. It would not surprise me if Almirola ended up just outside a playoff spot, but if he does make it he will be an early out.

 
Most Likely Place for a Victory: There is only one track where Almirola has more than two top five finishes and that is Talladega. He also has nine top ten finishes at the 2.66-mile oval. The only other tracks where he has more than five top ten finishes are Kansas, Richmond and Phoenix. 

Denny Hamlin - #11 FedEx Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 4th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2016, 2019, 2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: After receiving a second wind in 2019, Hamlin kept up the momentum in 2020 and was one of the best drivers. He made the final four again but ended up fourth again. Prior to last year, Hamlin had won five races in a season only twice. I think he could make it three consecutive years, but he is due for a step back. For how good his 2020 season was, Hamlin had a lot of poor results. He was 29th in the Coca-Cola 600, nowhere to be seen in the first Martinsville race, lost a tire while leading the Brickyard 400 late and his opening playoff round were finishes of 13th, 12th and 21st. He finished outside the top ten in six of the ten playoff races. He cannot end a season like that and win a championship. Frankly, after seeing those results, it surprising he wasn't the one to miss out on the Phoenix and not Harvick. He will be in there, but he has to be better.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Hamlin will attempt to become the first driver to win three consecutive Daytona 500s. He has also won at Kansas and Pocono the last two years.

Ryan Blaney - #12 Advance Auto Parts/BodyArmour/Menard's/DEX Imaging

Team: Team Penske
2019 Championship Finish: 9th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2017, 2020)
2020 Playoff Prospects: Blaney was a first-round elimination in the 2020 playoffs and that encapsulated his season. There was a lot of promise but few inspiring results from him. He won once, but there were at least three other races he let get away. He spun at Bristol, was flat beat at Kentucky when restarting up front late and lost out on strategy at Texas. It also doesn't help that the playoff races do not line up for him. Darlington and Richmond are his two worst tracks and he isn't much better at Bristol. A Penske car should be a lock for the top 16, but there has to be a big improvement for Blaney this year, especially if his teammates are each picking up three of four victories. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Until he closes the deal somewhere else, Talladega is all he has. 

Chase Briscoe - #14 HighPoint/PEAK Ford

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2020 Championship Finish: Rookie (4th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This is his debut.
2021 Playoff Prospects: Most rookies don't make the playoffs. Most rookies don't win a race on pace. Every year, I think we try to convince ourselves one rookie will come out strong and fit right into Cup. Nineteen times out of 20 that doesn't happen. But... Briscoe feels different and there are seven road course races. He and Austin Cindric were arguably the two strongest road course drivers in the second division last year. I think Briscoe is better prepared for his rookie year than his teammate Cole Custer was last year. Briscoe has a shot to get in on pure pace and a victory at say Road America or Austin is not out of the question. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Any of the road courses and the Bristol dirt race. He also won both Las Vegas races last year in the Grand National Series.

Derrike Cope - #15 Jacob Companies Chevrolet

Team: Rick Ware Racing

2020 Championship Finish: N/A (Did not compete)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (1990)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Not going to happen because Cope does not plan on being full-time and the Daytona 500 is currently the only race on his schedule.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: He has won this race before... that's all I am saying.

Chris Buescher - #17 Fastenal/Fifth Third Bank/Castrol Ford

Team: Roush-Fenway Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 21st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Buescher somehow had two top five finishes in 2020 after zero the year prior, eight top ten finishes in 2020, double his 2019 total, but was a position worse in the championship than 2019. He also led a career-high 33 laps. Roush is an anchor Buescher cannot outrun. It is the third-best Ford team and the third-best Ford is only good enough for seventh or eighth best in all of the Cup Series, but that is a distant seventh or eighth. He might crack the top twenty, but the top 16 is out of reach.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Five of his 20 career top ten finishes have come at Daytona and three of his six top five finishes have come at Daytona. He does have a knack for road courses. He was fifth on the Daytona road course last year and two of his top four tracks on average finish are the Charlotte roval and Sonoma. 

Kyle Busch - #18 M&MS/Skittles/Snickers/Pedigree/Interstate Batteries Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 8th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Busch got there last year in unconvincing fashion and all an average Kyle Busch could muster was a round of 12 elimination. It feels like last year was fluke and Busch will not have another 33-race winless streak. Things will level out this year and Busch will be back to picking up four or five victories and look more like a threat. But he has a new crew chief in Ben Beshore and his team is basically the #20 team from last year. He probably should have had another victory or two last year. He has to look better early to really have any confidence this year will different. A lot of people pointed to Busch as the driver who struggled most without practice. He will get some practice at a bunch of the newer tracks, but there are still going to be at least 28 races where Busch's only time in the car will be race day and he has to produce in those 28 races.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Anywhere. Kyle Busch can win anywhere. 

Martin Truex, Jr. - #19 Bass Pro Shops/Auto-Owners Insurance/Reser's Fine Foods Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 7th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2016)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Truex and Busch were in the same boat last year and while Truex won earlier in the season, the result kept slipping out of his grasp. He had five consecutive third-place finishes and he followed that up with two runner-up results and a fourth. We don't see eight consecutive top five finishes that often. To make matters worse, he probably should have won the race that broke the streak at Darlington and then he finished second the week after that at Richmond. He was also second to Busch at Texas. If Truex had won that Texas race, he would have made the final four and then we are telling a different story entering 2021. He will be in the playoffs. He will win more races. If he wins races at the right time, he could be going for a second Cup title.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: After being ragged on for never winning a short track race, Truex's last three victories are on short tracks.

Christopher Bell - #20 Stanley/DeWalt/Irwin/Rheem/Craftsman/PristineAuction.com Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 20th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 21st (2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: As a rookie competing for Leavine Family Racing, Bell struggled much of 2020. He had those flashes but those would quickly be snuffed out with a run of three consecutive finishes outside the top twenty. He did finish third at Texas in October. He did finish 20th in the championship. The man he is replacing was 17th in the championship and had nearly five times as many top five finishes and nearly double the number of top ten finishes as Bell's 2020 totals. Bell has to make the playoffs. He cannot afford to be the one Gibbs driver on the outside, and Gibbs has a recent history of being quick on the trigger. Bell is already the third different driver in the #20 Toyota since Matt Kenseth stepped away in 2017. It doesn't help that Ty Gibbs, the boss' grandson, has been quite successful at the lower levels and will run some races in NASCAR's second division this year. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Bristol dirt race. Bell is in a small group of favorites that include Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe and possibly Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. If Bell wins that Bristol race, the weight will be off his shoulders, but he will still need to be one of the top 16 drivers on points to change the minds of many. He cannot afford to make the playoffs because of a Bristol dirt race victory and still be 20th in points.

Matt DiBenedetto - #21 Menard's/Motorcraft/Quick Lane Ford

Team: Wood Brothers Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 13th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 9th (2017)
2021 Playoff Prospects: DiBenedetto got into the playoffs by the skin of his teeth in 2020 and now he will run all of 2021 as a lame-duck driver, as it has already been decided that Austin Cindric will take over the #21 Wood Brothers Ford in 2022. DiBenedetto is a clean driver and one of his best qualities is he brings the car home in one piece. He had 11 top ten finishes last year and his average finish of 14.8 was a career-best by nearly four positions. He will be in the same spot as last year, teetering on a playoff spot. He could be one of the drivers outside of the top 16 on points, but with a victory to get in. That is asking a lot.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: His 2019 Bristol defeat is still on everyone's mind. He does have three top ten finishes at Daytona, more than at any other track. 

Joey Logano - #22 Shell/Pennzoil/AAA/AutoTrader/MoneyLion Ford

Team: Team Penske
2020 Championship Finish: 3rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2015)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Logano should get in. He should win two or three races in the regular season, being a regular top ten finishers and be a lock for the round of eight. It is only then we will wonder if he can make it back to the final four and if he can be a threat in the Phoenix finale. He can pull it off. It all comes down to timing with him. 

He frequently suffers long dry spells. He won two of the first four races last year and then didn't win again until Kansas in October. In 2019, he won at Michigan in June and led the championship and then didn't win any of the final 21 races, falling to fifth in the championship. In his championship year of 2018, he won at Talladega in May and his next victory was not until that Martinsville race in October. Then he won the finale. He won the ninth race of 2017 at Richmond, lost most of the point for failing technical inspection, missed the playoffs and didn't win again that season. History would suggest it is better for Logano to win earlier than later because he is bound to go at least six months between victories. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Logano has three victories at Talladega, Kansas and Michigan, tied for the most in his career. He also averaged a finish of 11.0 at Nashville in four starts there in NASCAR's second division with 311 laps led out 858 laps completed. 

Bubba Wallace - #23 DoorDash/McDonald's/Columbia/Dr. Pepper/Root Insurance Toyota

Team: 23XI Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 22nd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2018)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Wallace and 23XI Racing, formed from the partnership between Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin, was the headline grabber of 2020. Now, it will hit the racetrack. It is a new team. It will have growing pains, but with its owners and the support from Toyota it has to at least match what Leavine Family Racing did last year and finish in the top twenty. Wallace can do that, and I think he will set personal bests in top five and top ten finishes, but making the playoffs is asking a lot. He will come close, but fall short, and that is not a bad thing for him and this team in year one.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Wallace always puts himself in the discussion at plate races. Daytona is his best track in terms of average finish. This is going to be his best Cup opportunity to shine at other tracks. He had a top ten at Bristol last year. He won the second Eldora Truck race. He has a Truck victory at Martinsville. Bristol and Martinsville are two of his six best tracks in terms of average finish in Cup. He also has done well at Michigan in every category. 

William Byron - #24 Axalta/Liberty University Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: 14th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 21st (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Byron failed to get a top five finish in the first 24 races of 2020 and then was fourth and first at Dover and Daytona to close out the regular season, and fifth at Darlington to start the playoffs. Eight of his 14 top ten finishes came in the final 14 races of the season. He is trending in the right direction at the start of 2021. But Hendrick Motorsports got tougher and he will be clawing not to be fourth in the team. Last year, Jimmie Johnson was in the top 16 of points, but a few race winners outside the top 16 cost him a playoff spot. I could see Byron being in that position this year. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Surprisingly, in six Pocono starts, he has four top ten finishes and an average finish of 9.7. He is also the most recent Daytona winner.

Michael McDowell - #34 Love's Travel Stops/FR8 Auctions Ford

Team: Front Row Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: 23rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 5th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: McDowell is coming off a career year with his 23rd-place championship finish and four top ten finishes. However, 23rd in the championship and four top ten finishes are lightyears away from a playoff spot. However, the man of 357 Cup starts, zero victories, three top five finishes and 12 top ten finishes is playing the numbers game and the more he races the more likely one race will fall into his lap. We see it all the time in NASCAR. If he wins the Daytona 500, his winning percentage will still be 0.279%, which is still atrocious, but it will get him a playoff spot, though he likely will not do much with it.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: For all the people that compliment McDowell's road course ability, which does include full-time rides in Grand-Am, a Star Mazda championship and a pair of Champ Car starts, do you want to guess how many top ten finishes he has on road courses in the Cup Series? The answer is one and it was tenth at last year's Daytona road course race. That is one top ten in 23 road course starts. I don't think it is going to happen at a road course.

Anthony Alfredo - #38 MDS Trucking Ford

Team: Front Row Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: Rookie (18th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This is his debut.
2021 Playoff Prospects: Alfredo has 19 Grand National Series starts and 13 Truck starts. I don't think he is ready for full-time Cup. This is the quintessential rush to the Cup Series because the money is running out and instead of burning it in the lower divisions it will burn brighter at the highest level. I think he has potential, but he is not developed enough yet to think he will be competitive in Cup. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Of his nine top ten finishes in the second division last year, six were on 1.5-mile ovals. His only two top ten finishes in Truck are also on 1.5-mile ovals. 

Cole Custer #41 Haas Automation/Dixie Vodka Ford

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 16th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 37th (2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: While Custer stole a victory at Kentucky last year to earn a playoff spot, he was far from impressive. He had two top five finishes and seven top ten finishes. Christopher Bell had the same number in both categories. Custer led five laps last year, all at Kentucky, and 29 drivers led more including Michael McDowell, Ryan Preece, Ty Dillon, Matt Kenseth, Corey LaJoie, hell even Daniel Suárez led more. I think this year will be a market correction and he will be outside the top 16 and clinging to the top 20.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Three of his seven top tens were at tracks a mile in length. Phoenix, Loudon and Dover. 

Ross Chastian - #42 AdventHealth Chevrolet

Team: Chip Ganassi Racing
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (7th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 10th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Chastian has been one of the popular underdogs for the last few years and he has been on Ganassi's radar for the last few years. His stock took a hit last year, as he won no races in the Grand National Series. It was not without trying. He had 15 top five finishes and 27 top ten finishes, most in the series. He also had 553 laps led, fifth in the series. There are competing thoughts about Ganassi. Everyone said the team was holding Kyle Larson back and yet the team had Larson in the top ten of the championship in four consecutive seasons and Kurt Busch was tenth last year. I don't expect Chastian to win races, but that is more down to his talent. I think he will be in that pack of winless drivers fighting for those final playoff points on points and ultimately falling short. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona. It is his best track in terms of average finish in Cup and Grand National Series competition. 

Erik Jones - #43 U.S. Air Force/RP Funding Chevrolet

Team: Richard Petty Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: 17th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: After a few difficult seasons at Joe Gibbs Racing, Jones takes a large step back to Richard Petty Motorsports. The good news is Jones might be catching RPM at a good time. The team was 22nd in the championship last year, the team's best finish since 2015. It had five top ten finishes, the most since 2017. While Jones was outcasted from JGR, he is coming off a season with nine top five finishes and 13 top ten finishes. For him to make the playoffs he will have to be flawless. A victory will be hard to come by, but he could sneak into one of those final playoff spots that come down to points. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Darlington. Six starts, six top ten finishes, four top five finishes, a victory, an average finish of 5.2 and this year there will be two Darlington races. He also runs strong at Texas and Pocono. 

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. - #47 Kroger Chevrolet

Team: JTG Daugherty Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 24th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2014)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Stenhouse, Jr. joined JTG Daugherty Racing last year and he went from 23rd to 24th in the championship with his average finish dropping two spots. This is despite finishing in the top five in three times in 2020 after having only one in 2019. He also had more top ten finishes in 2020 than 2019. As long as there are plate races, Stenhouse, Jr. has a shot, but that means he has only three chances.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona or Talladega. The Bristol dirt race could play into his favor. 

Alex Bowman - #48 Ally Financial Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: 6th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 11th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Bowman was one of the most improved drivers over the course of 2020. After winning at Fontana and fading in the first half of the season, it felt like he would be an early out in the playoffs. Instead, he made the semifinal round and finished sixth. While he picked up 15 top ten finishes, his six top five finishes were fewer than his 2019 total, but he had nine top ten finishes in the final 12 races. Bowman effectively is taking on a new number and sponsorship. He will make it back to the playoffs and I think he picks up at least two victories.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: A 1.5-mile oval. He probably should have won the Coca-Cola 600 last year and maybe even the 500-kilometer race at Charlotte the Thursday after that. He was in the top five in the final three 1.5-mile races of the season and led 43 laps in the October Texas race. 

Cody Ware - #51 Biohaven Pharmaceuticals' Nurtec Chevrolet

Team: Rick Ware Racing
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (58th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 39th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: I am not sure because Ware might also impersonate an IndyCar driver at some point in 2021 and while he was announced to compete full-time in Cup it doesn't sound like that is the solid plan. I could see him getting distracted and someone else filling this car for eight or nine races this season.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Ware had done his share of road course racing, so one of those seven, but in all likelihood, he will be finishing 24th at best. 

Josh Bilicki - #52 Insurance King/Junction Fuels/Wisconsin Lighting Lab Ford

Team: Rick Ware Racing
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (34th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This is his debut.
2021 Playoff Prospects: With any Rick Ware Racing entry, I don't believe anyone will do a full season. Somebody will have more cash ahead of one race and the team will change drivers faster than you can blink. Forget the playoffs, running all 36 races would be an accomplishment for Bilicki.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: His best finish finishes in the Grand National Series are the Daytona road course, Road America, Charlotte roval, Road America and Mid-Ohio. Then it is Talladega and another Mid-Ohio, a Kansas race and another Road America. All those results were between 12th and 20th. 

Joey Gase - #53 Rick Ware Racing Ford

Team: Rick Ware Racing
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (49th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 23rd (2017, 2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Dead on arrival.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Nowhere. Not in NASCAR. In 74 Cup strats, he has three lead lap finishes. He was 20 laps down in the Coca-Cola 600 last year. He was parked at Bristol for being too slow. 

Jamie McMurray - #77 AdventHealth Chevrolet

Team: Spire Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: N/A (Did not compete)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2010)
2021 Playoff Prospects: This is a one-off as Spire Motorsports will cycle an unknown number of drivers through this car in 2021.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Here! But McMurray gets a guaranteed paycheck from the television industry, so he is a winner every two weeks in my book.

B.J. McLeod - #78 Keen Parts/NASCAR Heat 5 Ford

Team: Live Fast Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (21st in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 19th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: It is a new, underfunded team with a driver whose average finish in the Cup Series is 33.2 and who has never finished on the lead lap in any of his prior 57 starts. In 252 starts across the three national touring series, McLeod has zero top ten finishes and only 31 lead lap finishes. Even if he were to win a rain-shortened wreck fest, he still would not be in the top 30 of the championship, the other requirement for making the playoffs. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona is the site of his best career finish of 19th. McLeod is one driver who may miss the Indianapolis oval the most because his next two best finishes in the Cup Series were 22nd and 25th in the last two Brickyard 400s.

Daniel Suárez - #99 iFly/Pump It Up Party/K1 Speed/CommScope Chevrolet

Team: Trackhouse
2020 Championship Finish: 31st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 29th (2017)
2021 Playoff Prospects: A long shot. Suárez moves to a new team, which has purchased Germain Racing's assets and Trackhouse will operate out of the Richard Childress Racing shop this season. Despite driving for the Gaunt Brothers last year, Suárez completed 9,523 laps, the 13th most in NASCAR, more than Clint Bowyer, Kyle Busch, Austin Dillon, Kurt Busch, Cole Custer, William Byron, Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Blaney and Bubba Wallace. Six of those drivers won a race. I expect a big improvement from Suárez in 2021, but he will still be short of a playoff spot. Perhaps he could be the sleeper of the season and could break into the top 20.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Despite running with Gaunt Brothers last year, Suárez's average finish at Dover remains 13.8, 14.6 at Richmond and 15.2 at Bristol. Maybe he could steal the show at a short track.

Non-Chartered Teams

Garrett Smithley - #13 Trophy Tractor Ford

Team: MBM Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (43rd in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his debut.
2021 Playoff Prospects: This is not a full-time entry.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: I wonder how far down the ladder you would have to go until Smithley is the favorite to win a race. Would he be the favorite in an ARCA East Series race? I doubt he will be in the Daytona 500.

Kaz Grala - #16 Hyperice Chevrolet

Team: Kaulig Racing 

2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (33rd in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his debut.
2021 Playoff Prospects: Grala will not make the playoffs, but he will be part-time with Kaulig Racing, as the team samples the Cup Series before a full-time expansion.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Grala was seventh in his Cup debut last year on the Daytona road course as a substitute for Austin Dillon. With enough practice time, maybe he steals a victory on a road course. The rest of his schedule is unknown. As for Daytona, Kaulig put Justin Haley in this race last year on speed, but I think the field is tougher this year. It might not come easy but Grala could pull it out.

Austin Cindric - #33 Verizon Ford

Team: Team Penske
2020 Championship Finish: Rookie (2020 NASCAR Grand National Series champion)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his debut.
2021 Playoff Prospects: In the Cup Series? Pretty low. In the Grand National Series? Pencil the defending champion in now for six to eight victories. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Cindric will compete in a handful of Cup races in 2021, as he prepares to be full-time in 2022 with the Wood Brothers. If he runs any of the road courses, he could pull out a surprise victory. You would have to think Penske will put this car in the Daytona 500 one way or another. Last year, the two cars to make it on speed were 31st and 33rd while the Penske cars were 11th, 23rd and 27th. If Cindric matches his teammates speed, he should get the job done on Wednesday. 

David Ragan - #36 Front Row Motorsports Ford

Team: Front Row Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (only ran the Daytona 500 and finished fourth)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 4th (2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: This is a Daytona 500 only entry for Ragan.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: It is Daytona or bust for Ragan for another year. There are nine cars fighting for four spots. He will be competitive for a spot, but I am not sure the qualifying speed will be there. He will likely need a result on Thursday.

Ryan Preece - #37 Kroger ClickList/Bush's Beans Chevrolet

Team: JTG Daugherty Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 29th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 8th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Preece might not even be full-time. This team's charter was leased to Trackhouse. The team does not have the funds to do all the races. If the results are not good enough, the team might not compete, or we will see someone else in this car at some point in 2021. Either way, I don't have faith in Preece. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: A modified race. Last year, JTG Daughtery Racing put Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. on pole position for the Daytona 500 and Preece was 17th in qualifying. The team could manufacture the speed to get Preece into the race. 

Noah Gragson - #62 Beard Oil Chevrolet

Team: Beard Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: Rookie (5th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his debut.
2021 Playoff Prospects: Almost zero in the Cup series, but much higher for the Grand National Series, where he will be full-time. He won two races last year.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: The Grand National Series. Beard has a good track record of making this race with Brendan Gaughan. The team made it on speed last year. Gragson might have the talent to make the race, but he has to face tougher opposition and might need to get in on Thursday night. His aggression is known to get the better of him at times. That could cost him. 

Timmy Hill - #66 MBM Motorsports Ford

Team: MBM Motorsports
2020 Championship Finish: Ineligible (ran all 36 Cup races. 26th in the Truck Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 27th (2020)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Slim to none.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: iRacing. He might start every other Cup race this season, but I have my doubts he can be out of the top four non-chartered teams to make the Daytona 500.

Ty Dillon - #96 Black Rifle Coffee/Bass Pro Shops Toyota

Team: Gaunt Brothers Racing
2020 Championship Finish: 26th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 6th (2019)
2021 Playoff Prospects: Dillon is stepping back and will only be part-time with Gaunt Brothers. He will also run a few races with Joe Gibbs Racing in the Grand National Series.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: He is only signed on for Daytona. He will have to either qualify or race his way into the field. Gaunt Brothers Racing had made this race three consecutive years before Suárez missed out last year. It will come down to the wire on Thursday.

Playoff Driver Predictions

1. Kevin Harvick

2. Kyle Busch

3. Denny Hamlin

4. Chase Elliott

5. Martin Truex, Jr.

6. Joey Logano

7. Brad Keselowski

8. Kyle Larson

9. Alex Bowman

10. Ryan Blaney

11. Kurt Busch

12. William Byron

13. Christopher Bell

14. Chase Briscoe

15. Matt DiBenedetto

16. Aric Almirola

The Clash will take place tonight at 7:14 p.m. ET. Daytona 500 qualifying is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. on Wednesday February 10 with the qualifying races scheduled to begin at 7:21 p.m. on Thursday February 11. Green flag for the 63rd Daytona 500 is scheduled for 3:05 p.m. ET on Sunday February 14.

Musings From the Weekend: What Has Happened to Our Youths?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are Super Bowl champions. Tom Brady has done it again. Lewis Hamilton decided to announce his return to Formula One this morning. Peugeot announced its LMDh driver lineup this morning. Romain Grosjean is coming to IndyCar. Ferrari is not, and I believe I had that. Formula One might have to run two races in Bahrain. Formula One has also taken reverse grid qualifying races off the table but is still open to sprint races on Saturday. Jamie Whincup is going to retire at the end of the year. The Supercross championship might be getting out of hand. NASCAR is getting ready for Daytona. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

What Has Happened to Our Youths?

I thought Richard Petty's record for most NASCAR Cup starts would be broken in my lifetime. With drivers getting younger, the schedule set on three-dozen races, increased measures to lock drivers into the field and the likes of Mark Martin, Terry Labonte, Bill Elliott, Ken Schrader, Dale Jarrett, Ricky Rudd and Michael Waltrip all racing into their 50s, I thought some 20-year-old would go on for a 30-plus year career and top 1,184 starts. 

However, despite repeating the words of one Dr. Jones for years, I never thought they would apply to race car drivers. Apparently, it is not the years but the mileage for them as well. 

Marco Andretti's decision to step away from full-time competition got me thinking. Andretti has been around for 15 years, a respectable career length, but he only turns 34 years old this year, the same age Dario Franchitti was when Franchitti won his first Indianapolis 500 and championship and younger than Arie Luyendyk, Emerson Fittipaldi, Tony Kanaan, Will Power and Takuma Sato when they all won their first Indianapolis 500. 

Results played into Andretti's decision. I bet if he was eighth or ninth in the championship and running level to his teammates, he would still be preparing for a full season in 2021. But after a five-year slide, Andretti reassesses his career and cuts down on his number of races for at least 2021. He could recharge the batteries and make a full-time comeback next year. He might move on to another discipline, whether that is sports cars or something entirely different, or he could be done for good. He might try a few years as an Indianapolis one-off and then call it quits before turning 40. 

Andretti was a part of the first wave of 21st century teenagers in motorsports, nearly winning the Indianapolis 500 at 19 years old. As with all the teenagers that came before and after him, the record book is for the taking when you debut before turning 20. A.J. Foyt ran until he was 57 years old. Mario Andretti was 54 years old when he made his final Indianapolis 500 start. A teenager could flip the record book. 

But we are watching this wave of teenage drivers hit their 30s and the trajectory does not appear to be on par with the generations before them. There is a level of burnout that we did not anticipate. While many of these drivers entered at a high point for viewership and sponsorship dollars, the last five years have seen a sharp decline in both categories. A decline in viewers, leads to a decline in sponsorship, which means smaller contracts and drivers that were once making $8-10 million a year, are no longer able to command those salaries. And they can't seem to justify getting out of bed for $2 million a year. 

Money aside, the appetite just doesn't seem to be there to race into a driver's 50s. Jeff Gordon got out at 43 years after finishing third in the championship and the year before that he had won four races. Concussions shortened Dale Earnhardt, Jr.'s career, but he had to walk away at 42. Tony Stewart called it quits at 45 and Carl Edwards walked away after having a championship slip from his grasp at 36 years old. Clint Bowyer just walked away at 41 years old. Jamie McMurray was 42 when he stopped competing full-time.

Drivers don't have to race until their 50 years old anymore. They can walk away at 40 years old with more than enough money to live on for another three lifetimes. At the start of the 21st century, the likes of Martin, Schrader, Labonte and the other guys pushing 50 were making the best money of their careers. They had incentive to keep going and keep cashing in. Now, a driver's highest earning power is going to be from their mid-20s to their late-30s. Once they hit 40, there is no guarantee the demand will be there.

As glamour as being a race car driver sounds, it is still a job. There are is a daily grind and responsibilities that wear on a person. Millions of dollars might take care of the bills and allow for an excess of luxury items, but everyone has a limit to the physical and emotional toll of a job. Once it stops becoming fun, it is better to walk away. 

Oddly enough, while we are seeing a decrease in the older drivers in IndyCar and NASCAR, in Formula One experience is carrying careers longer than ever before. For the longest time, a driver wouldn't get into Formula One until his mid-20s, he would get a good decade and then be out by his mid-30s. Now, in the hyper-specialization era of Formula One where teams are hesitant to hire anyone but the proven product, more drivers are getting to race into their 40s. Rubens Barrichello might have started the trend, but we have seen Kimi Räikkönen and Fernando Alonso make it to their 40s. Jenson Button and Felipe Massa each got to their late-30s. Heck, Michael Schumacher returned with Mercedes at 41 years old. 

Though some drivers are staying in Formula One longer, that doesn't mean some are hanging it up early. Nico Rosberg retired at 31 after winning the World Drivers' champion at 31. Lewis Hamilton is only 36 years old, but we do not expect him to race into his 40s. Sebastian Vettel is only 33 years and we think he is on his last legs in Formula One. 

The second wave of youngster are... well, still youngsters, but it will be interesting to see if they continue on longer than their teenage predecessors or perhaps walk away at an even younger age. Max Verstappen is only 23 years old and already has 119 Grand Prix starts. Will he go for another decade or will he call it quits at 30 and focus on simulator racing? Colton Herta isn't even 21 yet, he is the youngest IndyCar race winner and in year three he will be a serious championship threat, but he is also in a band and at 28 years old, will he decide a decade in racing has been enough and focus on music instead? Or will Verstappen and Herta both race into their 40s and perhaps their 50s and set all kinds of records for longevity? 

We will have to see how motorsports evolves over the next decade and it will change, not just in how much money is flowing through it and how many people are watching it, but in what is powering the machinery and perhaps even in how races are organized. Changes from fossil fuels to electricity or hydrogen or some other form of propulsion could dictate how careers go. Some drivers might adapt better than others. Some might choose not to adapt at all. 

A few records are safe for now.

At 35 years old, Kyle Busch will start this NASCAR season with 570 Cup starts, 614 away from Petty's record of 1,184. He would have to race another 17 years just to get close to that record. Joey Logano is only 30. He has 435 starts. He will need to race nearly another 21 years in the Cup series to take the top spot. Chase Elliott is 999 starts away from the record and he just turned 25 years old. He would have to run another 27.75 seasons to get there. 

Longevity requires skill and good health, and as we saw with Jimmie Johnson, even the best lose a step and cannot get it back. Once it starts to go, it might be better to get out before you hang on too long. Some will spend 20 years at the highest level of motorsports before they turn 40 and some will get out early even if they have another decade in them.

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Super Bowl, but did you know...

Ken Roczen swept the Supercross races at Indianapolis.

Coming Up This Weekend

NASCAR will have the Clash on Tuesday, qualifying Wednesday, qualifying races on Thursday and the Daytona 500 on Sunday.

The Asian Le Mans Series will run a pair of 4-hour races at Dubai.

The Toyota Racing Series concludes it season at Circuit Chris Amon.

Supercross will be in Orlando.

2021 IndyCar Team Preview: A.J. Foyt Racing

Our third IndyCar team preview takes us to the cellar. It is A.J. Foyt Racing. Last year was the team's first season without primary sponsor ABC Supply Co. since 2004 and with this change the team had a rotation of drivers go through the #14 Chevrolet while Charlie Kimball was full-time in the #4 Chevrolet.

Tony Kanaan took the oval races in the #14 Chevrolet while Dalton Kellett made his IndyCar debut and ran majority of the season. Sébastien Bourdais took over the car for the final three races. It was another difficult season. The results kept falling short of acceptable and more times than not the Foyt cars were afterthoughts. Bourdais turned the tide a bit and the team carries some confidence into 2021 with the Frenchman leading the charge while Kellett will expand to full-time competition. 

2020 A.J. Foyt Racing Review

Wins: 0

Best Finish: 4th (St. Petersburg)

Poles: 0

Best Start: 7th (St. Petersburg)

Championship Finishes: 18th (Charlie Kimball), 24th (Tony Kanaan), 26th (Dalton Kellett), 28th (Sébastien Bourdais)

2021 Drivers:

Dalton Kellett - #4 K-Line Insulators Chevrolet

Kellett made his debut at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and he rounded out the grid in 26th before climbing to 21st, finishing one lap down. He had identical races at Road America, starting 23rd and finishing one lap down in 20th in each.

After taking Iowa off, Kellett returned for the Indianapolis 500 in a third car for Foyt. He qualified on the outside of row eight, with Kanaan to his inside and five positions ahead of Kimball. Just after 200 miles, Kellett had an accident in turn three and he took 31st in the box score.

Mid-Ohio was his next race weekend and he qualified 23rd in race one before finishing a lap down in 22nd. In the second race, Kellett spun in turn one, bringing out a caution, ruining his best starting position of the season of 20th. He would finish four laps down in 21st. His season concluded in a third car for the Harvest Grand Prix weekend. He started 25th in both races and finished 24th and 25th, two laps down on each day.

Numbers to Remember:

0: Lead lap finishes in 2020.

23.625: Average starting position in 2020 with one top twenty start, 20th at Mid-Ohio II.

23: Average finishing position in 2020 with two top twenty finishes, 20th in both Road America races.

Predictions/Goals:

Kellett has only one way to go, but even the scantest of improvements would go unnoticed 

I think IndyCar is too big for him. He wasn't competitive in the Road to Indy at any level. We saw eight IndyCar races where he was the bottom each weekend. He isn't a hazard on track. He doesn't put his fellow competitors in danger, but he isn't going to be pushing for top 15 finishes let alone top ten finishes. He is going to provide a good measuring stick for Jimmie Johnson in each race. 

All he can do is get more laps and gain more experience. It isn't going to matter, but if he stays on the track and sees the checkered flag, he increases his chances of picking up a good finish during the days of high attrition. He likely isn't going to end up with a top ten, but he could go from 22nd to 15th or 20th to 13th. 

He will likely be the worst full-time driver.

What does Kellett need to do in 2021?

Not get into accidents.

Complete as many laps as possible.

Pull out at least one lead lap finish. 

Sébastien Bourdais - #14 A.J. Foyt Racing Chevrolet

Bourdais' original 2020 schedule was going to be front loaded, with him starting three of the first four races before returning for Portland and he was going to fill the middle of his season with a full season in IMSA driving a Cadillac for JDC-Miller Motorsports. 

Instead, Bourdais did not get into a car until the Harvest Grand Prix weekend and he spent that entire weekend knocking off cobwebs. He qualified 16th for the first race but went backward and finished a lap down in 21st. For the second race, he rolled off the grid from 21st, but went forward, picking up three positions and finishing 18th and on the lead lap. 

With some mileage underneath him, Bourdais qualified seventh for St. Petersburg and finished fourth. 

In IMSA, Bourdais opened the 2020 season with three consecutive third-place finishes, and he had five consecutive top five finishes. He had seven top five finishes from nine races, and he was fifth in the championship.

Numbers to Remember:

14: Top five finishes for A.J. Foyt Racing since 2010.

26: Top five finishes for Bourdais since he returned to IndyCar in 2011.

9: Consecutive seasons with a top five finish for Bourdais.

2: Consecutive seasons with a top five finish for A.J. Foyt Racing

Predictions/Goals:

Bourdais lifts every organization he has joins. He put Dragon Racing on the podium. He is responsible for the only top ten finish Lotus had in its one IndyCar season, a ninth at Barber, which should be celebrated more than it is. He won races and led the championship with Dale Coyne Racing.

Foyt is a chore, but Bourdais alone makes the team a top ten contender and I think he will get close. There are limits. Even for all the good days Bourdais had at Coyne, he couldn't paper over all the shortcomings of a small team. Foyt presents the same situation.

I think Bourdais can finish in the top ten in at least seven races. He will position himself to turn a seventh starting position into a fourth or fifth. He may even sneak into the top five in qualifying and be fighting for podium results. Winning will remain difficult. Foyt will have to be perfect in all areas, from setup to pit stops. We have seen small teams fighting for victories only for slow pit stops to take them out of it, see Meyer Shank Racing in the 2019 Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Bourdais cannot win races if he is losing two or three seconds per pit stops to the likes of Penske and Ganassi. 

Foyt has not had a top ten championship finisher since 2002. Bourdais will come close to that. The road and street course results will be better than his oval results. He should ravage his teammate, qualifying and finishing ahead of Kellett at every race. 

What does Bourdais need to do in 2021?

He needs to make the second round of qualifying at least 70% of the time and he needs to make the Fast Six at least three or four times. 

He needs to be respectable on ovals, at least finishing in the top half of the field in all of them.

Average a finish between 11.0 and 11.9.

The 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season will begin on April 18 at Barber Motorsports Park. NBC will have coverage of the season opener. 

2021 IndyCar Team Preview: Arrow McLaren SP

Our second IndyCar Team Preview takes us to the team that demands the most attention: Arrow McLaren SP. With the McLaren name back on the grid full-time, the team brought in two young drivers and past Indy Lights champions Patricio O'Ward and Oliver Askew. 

Both drivers started well and were on the podium early in the season. O'Ward's run of form continued throughout the season and he was knocking on the door of victory on multiple occasions. He did fall short, but he did pick up a top five championship finish. Askew suffered an accident in the Indianapolis 500 that left him with concussion-like symptoms and forced him out of the car for two races. The relationship between the Askew and the team soured. The two sides closed out the 2020 season together, but both knew they would not remain together in 2021. 

O'Ward returns for 2021, but he will have a new teammate, as Felix Rosenqvist joins the organization. 

2020 Arrow McLaren SP Review

Wins: 0

Best Finish: 2nd (Road America II)

Poles: 1 (Road America II)

Championship Finishes: 4th (Patricio O'Ward), 19th (Oliver Askew)

2021 Drivers:

Patricio O'Ward: #5 Arrow Chevrolet

O'Ward's first full season was tremendous and it was the season the organization needed in its first year with McLaren onboard. 

Things started slow, but the results were encouraging. O'Ward was 12th in his first run at Texas but he followed it with eighth-place finishes in each of the next two races. Then he took a somewhat surprising pole position for the second Road America race. He controlled that race and appeared set for his first career victory. The costly decision might have been taking the alternate tire on the final stint. Felix Rosenqvist had been quicker at the end of every stint and the alternate tire lost more speed in the closing laps. Rosenqvist got within striking distance and took the lead with a lap and a half to go. O'Ward had to settle for second. 

At Iowa, O'Ward was fourth in the first race and 30 laps led. In the second Iowa race, O'Ward was showing speed for a podium finish, and possibly competing for a victory, but a botched pit stop cost him, and he had to settle for 12th, one lap down. 

One year after failing to qualify for the Indianapolis 500, O'Ward made the race and climbed forward over the 500 miles, finding himself in the top ten. He was the second-best Chevrolet all race and he finished sixth, earning him Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year honors. He closed out the oval season with two phenomenal runs at Gateway. He led 94 laps in the first race and looked set for victory until Scott Dixon beat him out of pit lane on the final round of stops and he dropped to third. In the second race, O'Ward started strong, but ultimately fell behind Josef Newgarden and finished second again. 

He ended the season with three top ten finishes in the final five races. His only bad race was mixed in there, a 22nd in the first Harvest Grand Prix race when he had a pit lane penalty for crossing the blend line and then had a few off-course excursions. His season ended with an opportunity at St. Petersburg as a few of the top running Andretti Autosport entries ran into trouble. O'Ward picked up a handful of positions and finished second, behind Newgarden and ahead of champion Scott Dixon.

Numbers to Remember:

204: Laps led in 2020, the most laps led for a driver not to win a race since James Hinchcliffe's 217 in 2016 driving for Schmidt Peterson Motorsports.

205: Oval points in 2020, fourth-most.

14: Races finished in 2020. O'Ward was one of three drivers running at the finish of every race last season. 

12: Times as the top AMSP starter in 2020.

10: Times as the top AMSP finisher in 2020.

Predictions/Goals:

The goal is to take that next step from fourth in the championship. There is less real estate moving up, but O'Ward has to shoot for it. With the depth of this grid, cracking the top three of the championship is a monumental task, even McLaren is on the door. 

He is going to have to beat Dixon and Newgarden, likely Will Power and Alexander Rossi, and it would be no surprise if Simon Pagenaud, Colton Herta, Graham Rahal and Ryan Hunter-Reay were all up there as well. O'Ward could have a better season than 2020 and finish worse in the championship. He could win a race or two and drop to sixth or seventh. 

O'Ward had a rather spotless season. A few more bad days could creep in and they don't have to be of his making. A victory feels almost certain, but as we saw with Rosenqvist, winning in your sophomore season doesn't mean it will be an improvement from your rookie year. He doesn't have to improve his championship position to have a successful season. 

O'Ward should be gunning for that first career victory, but if he picks up another four podium finishes, leads another 100 laps and ended up somewhere in the top eight of the championship and top AMSP drivers that is a sufficient season. I don't want to make sixth in the championship a failure for him. AMSP has a habit of being quick on the trigger. The last thing we need is O'Ward being target practice.

What does O'ward need to do in 2021?

Win a race.

Lead more than 50 laps on road courses. 

Make it out of the first round of road/street course qualifying in at least eight races.

Felix Rosenqvist: #7 Arrow Chevrolet

Rosenqvist opened the 2020 season with an incredible drive at Texas. While Scott Dixon led the way, Rosenqvist made his way to the front and was up to second. He was pushing Dixon in the closing laps as they negotiated traffic. Rosenqvist had a chance at victory and went for it, but with slick track conditions, Rosenqvist spun and went from a runner-up finish to out of the race in 20th. 

He qualified in the top ten for the first six races, but the finishing results did not necessarily match the qualifying pace shown. He dropped to 15th in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and he had a mechanical issue in the first Road America race relegate him to 18th. 

The bounce back he needed came in the second Road America race. He started seventh and moved forward. He was behind O'Ward but was making up ground in each stint. A slow pit stop knocked him back in the middle of the race, but he had enough time to erase the deficit. With the pace Rosenqvist had, he could not afford to put a wheel wrong over that final stint. Rosenqvist closed in and with fresher tires he passed O'Ward in turn seven on the penultimate lap. He picked up his first career victory and it was Ganassi's fourth consecutive to start the 2020 season. 

The victory did not spark his season. An attempted two-stop strategy backfired in the first Iowa race and he was a non-factor in the second Iowa race. He was 12th in the Indianapolis 500, but was mostly anonymous in this race. He strung together top ten finishes at the first two Gateway races and the first Mid-Ohio round. He qualified fifth for the second Mid-Ohio race, but was taken out on the opening lap when Santino Ferrucci re-joined the circuit mid-corner. 

He picked up a top five in the first Harvest Grand Prix race, but his season ended with an average second Harvest Grand Prix race, and a flat tire in St. Petersburg knocking him down to 18th.

Numbers to Remember:

6: Races finished off the lead lap in 2020. Rosenqvist also finished off the lead lap in six races in 2019.

11: Races with laps led in 31 starts.

3: Races with double-digit laps led.

31: The most laps he has led in a race is 31, which came on debut at St. Petersburg in 2019.

3: O'Ward led more than 31 laps in three races in 2020.

Predictions/Goals:

The team with a short fuse has hired a driver that went from sixth to 11th in the championship, saw his average finish drop by 2.5 position and whose number of laps led were nearly a third of what it was the year before. 

I can imagine Rosenqvist being another one-and-done driver at AMSP. I don't think that will be the case, but I would hardly be surprised if that happens. 

It is called a sophomore slump for a reason and careers ebb and flow. Rosenqvist picked up a victory, but he struggled with consistency. In half the races in 2020, his finishing position was worse than his starting position. He showed the pace in qualifying, starting 11 races in the top ten, but he had finished in the top ten in only four of those races. That is a big area where he has to improve. He has to take sixth place starting spot and turn it into a third or second. And he has to take a top five starting position and contend for a victory. 

In his first year with AMSP, Rosenqvist cannot afford for O'Ward to become the clear number one driver. Rosenqvist needs to immediately push his teammate for top spot in the organization. That will improve his job security and likely increase his overall championship finish. From watching O'Ward and Askew, AMSP should provide quick cars for Rosenqvist. His qualifying average should be fine. We need to see Rosenqvist have a dominant day. Rosenqvist has led 71 laps in his career. O'Ward led 204 laps last year alone and he led the most laps on two occasions. 

It is tough to see both AMSP cars cracking the top ten in the championship. I think one of them will miss out and I am leaning on Rosenqvist being on the outside again, but not far out. 

What does Rosenqvist need to do in 2021?

Finish better than his starting position in at least ten races. 

Qualify in the top five in at least six races. 

Led at least 90 laps and lead at least 40 laps in one of those races.

The 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season will begin on April 18 at Barber Motorsports Park. NBC will have coverage of the season opener. 

2021 IndyCar Team Preview: Chip Ganassi Racing

We are back for another set of IndyCar team previews, as we get ready for the 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season. IndyCar made it through the pandemic-affected 2020 season and despite a few alterations, IndyCar heads into 2021 with some reasons for encouragement. The grid is growing a little bit and there are some excited names joining the series this season. 

One of those exciting names will be driving for the first team we are previewing, the defending champions in Chip Ganassi Racing. Scott Dixon took his second championship in three seasons in 2020 and it was his sixth championship overall. Felix Rosenqvist did pick up his first career victory, while Marcus Ericsson was a regular top ten finisher. Rosenqvist has since left the team, but Ganassi has expanded to four cars and it will have five drivers compete in 2021, two of which are past champions, though one might be the greatest in a different discipline and is now an IndyCar rookie.

2020 Chip Ganassi Racing Review

Wins: 5 (Texas, Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Road America I & II, Gateway I)

Poles: 0

Best Start: 2nd (Texas, Indianapolis 500)

Championship Finishes: 1st (Scott Dixon), 11th (Felix Rosenqvist), 12th (Marcus Ericsson)

2021 Drivers:

Marcus Ericsson - #8 Huski Chocolate Honda

Ericsson's sophomore IndyCar season saw him embrace a change of scenery at Chip Ganassi Racing, and the Swede put up respectable results. 

While a re-fueling issue took him out of Texas, and likely cost him a top ten finish, Ericsson followed it up with five consecutive top ten finishes, with a handful of impressive drives from the middle of the field. He went from 14th to sixth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and from 16th to fourth in the second Road America race. He followed it with a pair of ninth-place finishes at Iowa.

His Indianapolis 500 ended after 24 laps when he had an accident in turn two. He had qualified 11th. He bounced back with a top five finish in the first Gateway race, but a loose rear wing forced a lengthy stop in the second Gateway race and took him out of a top ten position. 

After a slow start at Mid-Ohio in the first race, he rebounded with a fifth-place finish in the second race. The end of his season mirrored its start with top ten finishes coming from starting in the middle of the pack. He didn't start better than 15th in any of the final five races and yet he had three top ten finishes. He ended the year with nine top ten finishes, only Scott Dixon, Josef Newgarden, Colton Herta and Patricio O'Ward had more. Those four just happened to be the top four in the championship.

Numbers to Remember:

9: Top ten finishes in 2020, triple the number of top ten finishes he had in his rookie season in 2019.

2: Ericsson has never led more than two laps in a race.

1: Top five start in 30 IndyCar starts.

6: Top ten starts in 30 IndyCar starts.

Predictions/Goals:

After making gains in 2020, Ericsson must raise his performances in 2021. 

He was unfortunate not to be in the top ten of the championship last year. Thirty-second in the Indianapolis is a crushing blow, especially when it is a double points affair. Outside of Indianapolis, Ericsson did not have many bad days that were his fault. Mechanical problems gave him his worst two finishes, one of which definitely cost him a top ten finishes and at least 13 points. 

However, we need to see Ericsson be the best Ganassi driver in one of these races and stamp himself as a man to beat. He was the top Ganassi finisher once in 2020 when he was fifth in the second Mid-Ohio race, but Ericsson never really beat Dixon last season. That second Mid-Ohio race was where Dixon spun on his own exiting turn one and Dixon had to rally to finish tenth. The only other race Ericsson was ahead of Dixon was the second Road America race and that was after Dixon had stalled in the pit lane. 

We need to see a race where Ericsson is the top qualifying Ganassi car and the top finishing Ganassi car. If he can lead a handful of laps while doing it that will only help his cause. He is a smart driver. He hasn't really made any questionable decisions in his first two seasons. Ganassi can probably trust Ericsson will bring the car home and get a good result, but Ericsson needs great results. Ganassi can find a dozen drivers who can finish between seventh and ninth. Ericsson needs to be in the podium conversation at least once, but more likely in multiple races.

Ericsson has enough to be a top ten championship driver in IndyCar, but year three is where we need to see him breaking through to that highest level, especially when it is year two with Ganassi.

What does Ericsson need to do in 2021?

Top ten championship finish, which will be difficult, but possible.

Take at least two positions off his average starting position. 

Make the second round of road course qualifying at least five times and the Fast Six at least three times.

At least one podium finish, but at least five or six top five finishes.  

One race where he leads at least 20 laps.

Scott Dixon - #9 PNC Bank Honda

Last year was your typically Scott Dixon season.

Open the season with three consecutive victories. 

Finish in the top five for eight of the first nine races. 

Finish in the top ten for 13 of 14 races. 

Led IndyCar with seven podium finishes. 

Had the best average finish at 5.0.

Completed all 1,900 laps.

Won his sixth championship.

Some of that was impressive, because he had never opened the season with consecutive victories before, let alone three on the spin. He had never completed every lap in a season before. We aren't surprised that Scott Dixon did those things and yet it still impresses us.

He started the year with a smackdown in Texas, leading 157 of 200 laps. He followed it with an aggressive three-stop strategy in the heat of the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. The first Road America race fell his way when Josef Newgarden coughed up the lead during a pit cycle and Dixon then leaped ahead of Will Power during the final round of pit stops. 

It wasn't all easy. Dixon had to go from the rear to the front in both Iowa race, taking 17th and turning it in a runner-up finish and then flipping 18th into a fifth-place result. 

His best race was the Indianapolis 500, but it might have been his most crushing defeat of the season. He led 111 laps from second position. He is now third all-time in laps led in Indianapolis 500 history and Al Unser and Ralph DePalma should start sweating, but Takuma Sato got ahead at the right time. Dixon fought back, but Spencer Pigot's accident occurred late enough that the race would have to end under yellow. It was a solid day for the championship, but those points earned cannot make up for the history lost. 

That defeat did not bring Dixon down. He won six days later at Gateway and became the third driver to reach 50 IndyCar victories. His championship lead was 117 points with six races to go.

Dixon ended the season with ten consecutive top ten finishes, but the title still went to the wire. Part was because of Josef Newgarden kept up the pressure and was almost as flawless as Dixon, but the other part was Dixon showed he was human. He spun on his own at Mid-Ohio while in the top five. He had two pedestrian Harvest Grand Prix races where he salvaged top ten finishes.

The championship lead Dixon built over the first 13 races assured him a ninth-place finish would be enough in the season finale and he came home third. 

Numbers to Remember:

3: Victories from surpassing Mario Andretti for second all-time in victories.

18: Seasons with a victory, tied with A.J. Foyt for the most all-time.

58: Laps led away from becoming the fifth driver to reach the 6,000 laps led milestone.

5.0: Average finish in 2020, it was the fifth time Dixon averaged a finish of 5.0 or lower in a season in his IndyCar career.

340: Laps led in 2020, the seventh time he has led at least 300 laps in a season.

Predictions/Goals:

Dixon has done enough where he isn't looking to fill out a checklist in hopes of being retained for another season. Dixon is set and the goal never changes. This year it will be a little different. 

A seventh championship would tie him with A.J. Foyt for the most all-time. Three victories would move Dixon into second all-time, putting him ahead of Mario Andretti. You would think with six championships and 50 victories things would get easier for Dixon, but when you have ascended to this level of altitude you find it is tougher than ever. 

Dixon is no longer competing against his contemporaries. He is competing against history. He is competing with how many generations his name will be passed down for. He is competing with ghosts whose successes completely wash out their failures, no matter how grand those defeats might have been.

 

Not many other drivers will get to this level. So far, none of it has fazed Dixon. He has not been rattled. He has not had a down year, but he reaches this highest of levels fresh off turning 40 years old and the end of a championship season that saw him lift the Astor Cup with a sour taste in his mouth. 

Dixon won his sixth title last year, but after all his dominance the championship still went to the final lap. He was third at St. Petersburg, but if he had lost his engine or cut a tire and dropped to tenth, Josef Newgarden would have pulled off one of the most remarkable championship comebacks in motorsports history, let alone IndyCar. The points swung 101 points in the final six races. Newgarden only fell 17 markers shy of a successful title defense. 

That is where Dixon will look to improve this year. That is where the entire Ganassi crew will look to improve. It is not enough to win four races, finish on the podium for half of them and complete every lap with only one result out of the top ten. This team will want to increase the gap after every race. It will want to lock up the title a race early, hell even two races early if it can. 

There is nothing Dixon needs to do in 2021. His goal is to be better than the year before, no matter how great that year might have been.

Álex Palou - #10 NTT Data Honda

No time like a pandemic for a rookie season, but Palou found early success with Dale Coyne Racing. 

Despite never racing on an oval, he equipped himself well for the Texas season opener, outpacing his teammate and sophomore Santino Ferrucci, only for Palou to be caught in an accident that was not of his doing. The Spaniard was in the wrong place at the wrong time when Rinus VeeKay spun. 

The bounce back was not immediate. He never found the setup in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, but he picked up a podium finish in his third career start at Road America after a fierce battle with Ryan Hunter-Reay. In the next race, he spent the entire race in the top ten. He had two good races at Iowa but fell short of a top ten finish in both. 

He made the Fast Nine for the Indianapolis 500, qualifying seventh and was running in the top ten when he spun out just after 300 miles. Palou was the best rookie up to that point. A penalty in the first Gateway race was a setback, but he drove two respectable races. He went from 20th to 12th in the first Mid-Ohio race and found himself fourth on the grid for the second one, only for his teammate to go off track and rejoin the course in the middle of the corner. This put Palou on the wrong end of contact that ended his day. 

After a long run of poor results, he ran in the top ten in the second Harvest Grand Prix race and finished ninth. The team tried an alternative strategy at St. Petersburg, and it placed Palou at the front, but he was forced to stop late and fell out of a promising finishing position. He ended up 16th in the championship but earned a promotion to Chip Ganassi Racing.

Numbers to Remember:

9: Times as the top Dale Coyne qualifier last season.

7: Times as the top DCR finisher last season.

8: Lead lap finishes in 2020.

3: Top ten finishes in 2020.

Predictions/Goals:

Palou is following a similar path to Marcus Ericsson, joining Ganassi in his sophomore season and their rookie seasons were close to identical. They both had a podium finish and three top ten finishes. Palou's average finish was 14.7 while Ericsson averaged 14.8 as a rookie. 

I don't expect Palou to match Ericsson's sophomore season, but he should be close as he is stepping into a race car that won a race last season. He showed a lot of speed last year, qualifying in the top ten for five races, three of which were top five starts and the other two were on ovals. He had three retirements, all because of accidents, two of which were not of his making. 

He will have to make a step forward. Ericsson missed a race as a rookie, but he went from 19th in the championship to 12th in his first year with Ganassi. Palou was 16th in a full season. The car he is stepping into was 11th. I think he has to at least finish 11th or 12th, where Rosenqvist and Ericsson were in 2020. 

Ed Jones took the exact path Palou is on now. Rookie with Dale Coyne to sophomore at Chip Ganassi Racing and it didn't pan for Jones. He was 14th with Coyne and only moved up to 13th with Ganassi. He was on the podium twice with Ganassi, but he made a few too many errors, including an accident while in a podium position at Phoenix. 

I think Palou will be better than Jones was, but I believe Palou will not really push Dixon for best in the team and he and Ericsson could be close to equal.

What does Palou need to do in 2021?

Finish no worse than 12th in the championship.

Pick up at least one podium and aim for top ten finishes in at least half the race. 

Finish better than his starting position in at least ten races.

Jimmie Johnson - #48 Carvana Honda

Johnson wrapped up a 20-year NASCAR career in 2020 and for the second consecutive season missed the playoffs. For the third consecutive season, he did not win a race. For the fourth consecutive season his average finish was worse than 16th after having only one of his first 15 seasons average a finish worse than 15th. 

Before his final full Cup season, Johnson expressed a desire to run IndyCar on road and street courses. He was a guest of McLaren's at the 2020 preseason test at Austin and announced he would be testing at Barber Motorsports Park in April. 

Then the pandemic took hold and it cancelled Johnson's trial with Arrow McLaren SP. Johnson lined up an IndyCar outing with Ganassi after the Grand Prix of Indianapolis/Brickyard 400 weekend in July, but Johnson had to miss the Brickyard weekend after coming in contact with COVID-19. He finally got into an Ganassi IndyCar on July 28. 

On September 9, Johnson announced he had signed a two-year deal with Chip Ganassi Racing and would drive the road and street courses in 2021.

Numbers to Remember:

16,620: Days old when Johnson makes his debut at the Barber season opener on April 18. Another way to read that is 45 years, six months and one day old.

40: Road course starts in a 20-year NASCAR Cup Series career.

1: Victory on a road course in the NASCAR Cup Series, Sonoma 2010.

0: Starts at any of the 12 road/street courses on the 2021 IndyCar schedule.

Predictions/Goals:

Johnson will be running 13 of 17 races. Last year, Oliver Askew was 19th in the championship having run 12 of 14 races. Zach Veach was 21st having run only 11 races. A top twenty championship finish is not unrealistic, but I do not have high expectations. 

Johnson has been putting in the time and he has been doing extra testing in Formula Three cars to get more experience with a higher downforce open-wheel car. He is an immense talent, but a couple tests in an IndyCar and Formula Three car are not going to turn Johnson into a top ten contender. We cannot forget he is also over 45 years old and making his first foray into open-wheel racing. This isn't Juan Pablo Montoya or A.J. Allmendinger returning. This is all new to him and he is coming off a painful slide in NASCAR, a series where he was a seven-time champion and won 83 races. 

His testing pace at Sebring was encouraging, better than I expected, but there was still a notable gap even to the next slowest drivers. 

Johnson's goal will be to complete laps. The more laps he completes, the more he learns and the better he will do. There will be a few races where he will likely finish inside the top twenty because he is only a lap down and a few notable drivers retired, whether it is because of accidents or mechanical failures. There could even be a qualifying session where he gets into the second round. If Ben Hanley can have luck fall his way, then so can Jimmie Johnson.

I don't expect Johnson to be close to the top 12 on speed. I think he will struggle to break into the top 20. There will be a few good days to draw confidence from. 

This is a two-year program. The best thing he can do is gain experience. He will want to be competitive and respectable, but 2021 should be about maximizing results in 2022.

What does Johnson need to do in 2021?

Complete as many laps as possible. 

Qualify in the top 20 on at least one or two occasions. 

Have a top 16 finish.

Have a lead lap finish.

Tony Kanaan - #48 Carvana Honda

Kanaan had set up 2020 to be a retirement tour with the Brazilian only contesting the oval races in A.J. Foyt Racing's #14 Chevrolet. 

The pandemic did increase Kanaan's schedule by one race, as Gateway became a doubleheader. He drove a respectable race at Texas, starting and finishing tenth. Iowa saw him brush the wall in race one, but he rebounded in race two, spending much of the race in the top ten only to drop to 11th in the closing laps.

His Indianapolis 500 was far from what he would have wished. It was a rather uncompetitive August at 16th and Georgetown, qualifying 23rd and spending almost all the race in the middle of the field before finishing 19th, one lap down. 

He went from 21st to ninth in the first Gateway race. His season ended with a 19th-place finish in the second Gateway race.

Numbers to Remember:

10.061: Kanaan's average finish in 49 starts between Texas, Indianapolis and Gateway.

2: Victories at Texas, Indianapolis and Gateway combined.

3,968: Days between Kanaan's last victory in a Honda-powered car and his first start of 2021 at Texas. That is ten years, ten months and 11 days. His last victory with Honda was at Iowa on June 20, 2010. 

Predictions/Goals:

Kanaan is only getting four races in the Texas doubleheader, Indianapolis and Gateway. The goal is to win a second Indianapolis 500 and get to ride off into the sunset. I don't expect that. 

IndyCar is tough and we saw Kanaan put together admirable days with Foyt. Ganassi will definitely give Kanaan a car capable of winning, but with Dixon in the team, just being best of the quartet is a significant hurdle to clear let alone topping the entire IndyCar grid. 

I think Kanaan can put together four solid races. Four races where he is pushing for top ten results and at least in the conversation for good reasons. My other hope is Kanaan gets to share these final races with spectators in the stands. I hate to think his final Indianapolis 500 could have been behind closed doors. Even if Indianapolis only has 30,000 people, he would at least get some type of ovation. 

Though he is only signed for this year, I think 2021 will not be his final year at Indianapolis. I think Kanaan still has one or two years as an Indianapolis one-off in him. 

Tony Kanaan does not need to do anything in 2021. But... 

It would be nice to see Kanaan win a second Indianapolis 500, or any race for that matter. 

A victory is unlikely, but it would be nice to see Kanaan run four competitive races where people are celebrating what he did on the track.

The 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season will begin on April 18 at Barber Motorsports Park. NBC will have coverage of the season opener. 

Musings From the Weekend: The Evolving GT World

We had a 24-hour race. Wayne Taylor Racing won again, this time with Acura. Ricky Taylor and Filipe Albuquerque, combatants four years, teammates now, each picked up their second 24 Hours of Daytona victory. Alexander Rossi and Hélio Castroneves won the race for the first time and became the 14th and 15th drivers to win the Indianapolis 500 and the 24 Hours of Daytona. GTLM botched the start. LMP3 did not repeat Prototype Challenge's worst days. Mazda MX-5 Cup continues to be a gem of a series. Scuderia Cameron Glickenhaus is employing fabulous drivers for its Hypercar program. Shane van Gisbergen will be able to get back to Australia. Formula One revealed some start times. Ed Jones will return to IndyCar full-time and Dale Coyne Racing will have his second driver announced this week, likely on Wednesday. Formula E released a revised schedule. However, we will stick to sports cars and IMSA's decision involving its top GT class. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

The Evolving GT World

IMSA's ever evolving class structure will see another change in 2022. 

With only three full-time teams and one manufacture (Corvette) committed to the GT Le Mans class, meant for GTE machinery, IMSA will scuttle the FIA World Endurance Championship compatible class after the 2021 season. In its place will be a professional GT3 class known as GT Daytona Pro. GTD in its current pro-am form will become GTD-Am.

Something had to be done and dropping GTLM is ripping off the bandage, which was going to be inevitable. 

The entire GTE regulations are on its last legs. If you thought three full-time teams in GTLM are bad, there are only four full-time teams committed to the GTE-Pro class for the 2021 WEC season, two Ferraris and two Porsches. GTE-Am still drew a healthy 13 car grid in the initial entry list, while the GT class in the European Le Mans Series drew nine cars last season. The Pro-Am component of GTE remains attractive, but the professional end, the ten-tenths end of the spectrum is a financial drain.

Aston Martin called it quits on its full-time WEC program after the 2020 season ended. BMW scaled back to the IMSA endurance races only for 2021. Porsche completely pulled out of IMSA's GTLM class. Ford stuck to its four-year plan with the GT program from 2015 to 2019. In IMSA's case, switching out GTE for a GT3 pro class sets up to be a net gain. 

It gives the manufactures a cheaper option. BMW could continue in IMSA with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing at a discount. Corvette will have to develop a GT3-car, but it does open the brand up to customer programs. It opens an entire class to customer programs, something GTLM/GTE-Pro has lacked for the better part of the last decade. 

We should see increased competition in IMSA's top GT class. The door opens to current GTD teams and GTD-only manufactures having their own set of professional drivers capable of going toe-to-toe with GTLM's best. Lamborghini brings over about a dozen drivers each year to the 24 Hours of Daytona and finds grand success. The brand also has strong seasons in SRO GT World Challenge competition. Lexus arguably already has a GTD-Pro worthy lineup in Jack Hawksworth and Aaron Telitz. Porsche took all its top factory drivers and spread them around GTD this year. This change allows Laurens Vanthoor and Earl Bamber to reunite. 

While a half-dozen cars in GTLM is not a bad grid for Daytona, this change could see the top GT class in IMSA double for 2022 and the likes of Lexus, Lamborghini, Mercedes-AMG and even Acura battle with Corvette and BMW while Porsche would rejoin that fight. McLaren could be in there as well. It could all happen without being a detriment to GTD-Am. GTD-Am will lose some professionals, but most of those teams will still be there. Turner Motorsport will still be there. Paul Miller Racing will still be there. 

We could see Kyle Busch return to the Lexus program and have Denny Hamlin be his co-driver in an all-professional lineup. Honda could form an all-IndyCar all-star lineup in an Acura NSX GT3 with say Takuma Sato, Ryan Hunter-Reay and James Hinchcliffe if they wanted. If Honda wanted to field a car for its best Super GT drivers, it could do that as well. We could see an all-NASCAR driver Corvette. These were all improbable options with IMSA's current GT structure. 

It is ok to have a little trepidation with this change. The IMSA class will no longer be in lockstep with Le Mans, but the ACO invites GT3 champions as well. The Asian Le Mans Series GT class is GT3 spec and that champion gets a shot at Le Mans. That team has to find a GTE car, but the invitation is still there. That will be more difficult in the United States. Corvette will likely keep its GTE program going for Le Mans purposes, but that GTD-Pro invite would be worthless to the likes of Lexus, Acura, Mercedes-AMG, McLaren and Audi teams. 

Le Mans and WEC will also face its own GT reckoning soon. The easiest decision would be some evolution to GT3-specs, though there are plenty of GT3 endurance series out there to choose from already. 

Before the IMSA announcement, I was hoping for some kind of GTE merger between IMSA and WEC, where both series saw their common issue and bonded for the good of both. I was hoping that at least the four IMSA endurance races, Daytona, Sebring, Watkins Glen and Petit Le Mans, would be count toward a united GT World Championship along with the rest of the WEC schedule. I was hoping the two series could create a nine-or-ten-round championship and require entries to run at least two IMSA endurance races, at least two WEC races and have the best six results count toward the overall championship. 

My thought process was it would force the Ferraris and the Porsches to compete in at least two IMSA races if not all of them. It would force Corvette to compete at least one WEC race other than Le Mans. If smarter heads prevailed, the series would allow BMW back in to compete for the championships and all of a sudden, we would see at least eight GTLM cars at the four IMSA endurance events and maybe increased competition in the WEC season. 

Though a potential solution, this IMSA/WEC co-sanctioned GT championship would still not draw any new manufactures in. It would gloss over the fractures that have been spreading for the last few years. Those had to be addressed and, instead of pushing that conversation back another two or three years, IMSA's decision forces the conversation to happen now.

GTD-Pro might not be the perfect solution, and we might need an alternate form of GT regulations for IMSA and WEC but keeping up GTE in its current form is not the answer. It is 2021. The entire automotive landscape is changing. GM just announced it will be all-electric come 2035. Where does that leave Corvette? Volkswagen Group is shooting to be all-electric by the middle of this decade. What does that mean for Porsche? By the end of this decade, we will probably be grappling with an all-electric GT class or at least a hybrid GT class. Whatever solution we come up with today will have to be adjusted real soon. Why not tackle it now or at least prepare for it? 

Evolution does not stop, and GT racing might be entering its most difficult phase. 

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Wayne Taylor Racing, but did you know...

The #18 Era Motorsport Oreca-Nissan of Ryan Dalziel, Paul-Loup Chatin, Kyle Tilley and Dwight Merriman won the LMP2 class at the 24 Hours of Daytona. 

The #74 Riley Motorsports Ligier-Nissan of Spencer Pigot, Oliver Askew, Scott Andrews and Gar Robinson won in LMP3. 

The #3 Corvette of Jordan Taylor, Antonio García and Nicky Catsburg won in GTLM. 

The #57 Winward Racing Mercedes-AMG of Maro Engel, Indy Dontje, Phillip Ellis and Russell Ward won in GTD.

Ken Roczen won the Supercross race from Indianapolis. 

Matthew Payne swept the Toyota Racing Series races from Hampton Downs.

Coming Up This Weekend

Supercross has two races from Indianapolis, one on Tuesday and one on Saturday.