Thursday, December 14, 2023

2023 IndyCar Milestones

One final chance to close out a season looking at what was accomplished. As we have covered Formula One and NASCAR, now it is time to cover IndyCar. It was a rather historic season in IndyCar this year. For the first time since reunification, the championship was decided prior to the finale. For the first time since 2005, the series whose roots are the Indy Racing League was decided prior to the season finale. 

But beyond the championship, we saw a few other records broken. A few veterans reached a few notable milestones. Some reached some less known marks. There are things that happened that you probably did not realize occurred. This is why we do this exercise, to hopefully leave you a little more informed. 

Scott Dixon: Most Consecutive Starts
This was on our radar from the start of the season and when it comes to a consecutive starts streak, you never really know when it will end. If everything goes as planned, a driver should start every race with no problems. But little things pop up, and a streak can end on a down note.

Dixon started 2023 with 305 consecutive starts. He had not missed a race since July 2004. Nothing lasts forever, but when the record is in reach, you just hopes it lasts a little longer. Dixon had to start 14 races to break the record Tony Kanaan set from 2001 to 2020. 

Fortunately, nothing bad or unforeseen occurred, and Dixon was able to make it to the 14th race of the season, the second race from the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course, and took this record for himself. Of course, he did it in incredible fashion, overcoming an opening lap accident to win through incredible fuel conservation. It was a victory only Dixon could pull off and he did it on such a historic occasion.

Dixon did start every race this season, meaning he enters 2024 having made 322 consecutive starts.

Dixon: Most Top Five Finishes
This wouldn't be an end-of-year IndyCar milestone recap without a handful of Scott Dixon accomplishments. We got two more for you. 

This one is Dixon again reaching uncharted territory. It isn't so much the record for most top five finishes, but the plateau he reached. The record was likely always going to fall this season. Dixon entered 2023 on 192 top five finishes, one behind Mario Andretti's record.

I even said at the start of the season Dixon would likely claim this record by the second race of the season, and he did after finishing third at St. Petersburg and fifth at Texas. Once Dixon was on 194 top five finishes and the record was his, the next goal was 200 top five finishes, and it felt highly probably he could reach that mark before the season started. 

He only needed eight top five finishes this season, and he had scored at least eight top five finishes in six consecutive seasons entering this year. Dixon had six top ten finishes in the first ten races. He was fifth at Nashville and then his victory in the second IMS road course race, his record-breaking 319th consecutive start, was Dixon's 200th top five finish. What a day!

Dixon ended the season with three more top five finishes, leaving him on 203 in his career.

Dixon: Second Most Laps Led
This is another record that feels increasingly more likely to end up as Dixon's before his career is over. 

Dixon started 2023 with 6,519 laps led in his career, fourth all-time. He was 102 laps behind A.J. Foyt for third and 174 laps behind Michael Andretti for second. For most of this season, it did not look likely Dixon would reach second. 

Through the first 13 races, Dixon had only led 13 laps. Then, starting with that August IMS road course race, Dixon went on to lead 192 laps in the final four races, surpassing Andretti for second in the final race of the season at Laguna Seca. 

With 6,724 laps led entering 2024, Dixon is 871 laps behind Mario Andretti's record. He isn't likely to come close this season. Over his last three seasons, Dixon has led 783 laps. At best he could be three seasons away, but he is 43 years old and turns 44 in July 2024. It will be close. The 7,000 laps led milestone is certainly achievable, maybe even next year.

Will Power: 5,000 Laps Led
Speaking of laps led milestones, Power led 180 laps, leaving him with 5,015 laps led in his career. He reached 5,000 laps led in the second Iowa race, and in doing so became the seventh driver in IndyCar history to lead at least 5,000 laps in a career.

Like Dixon to Mario Andretti, there is some breathing room from Power to the next guy in the record book. Al Unser is sixth all-time with 5,802 laps led. Power will likely not lead 788 laps in 2024 and remain seventh for at least another season if not two, but there is a chance he could end his career with at least 6,000 laps led. That is not out of the realm of possibility. 

Josef Newgarden: 52 Podium Finishes
When you win the Indianapolis 500, it is difficult to look at a season and call it a disappointment, especially when you won four times and had the second most victories in the season, but Newgarden's 2023 season just doesn't quite feel great. Perhaps it was the disjointed nature where he started rather slow and then ended on a dud with three finishes outside the top twenty in the final four events. This dropped him to fifth in the championship. 

However, Newgarden did have five podium finishes this season, which made him the 21st driver in IndyCar history to reach the 50 podium finish milestone. The Tennessee-native entered the year with 47 career podium finishes. With his second-place result at Road America, he hit 50. Then he won both Iowa races and he ended the year on 52 podium results, 19th all-time, just ahead of Tom Sneva and Gil de Ferran, who both ended on 50. 

Newgarden turns 33 years old on December 22 and he is already over 50 podium finishes and on the doorstep of 30 victories. There is easily another decade ahead of him, perhaps even 15 years. It isn't a matter of if Newgarden ends among the all-time greats, but where among the all-time greats.

Newgarden: Sixth Time Leading the Most Laps in a Season
Due to his oval mastery, Newgarden ends up leading a lot of laps every season. This year, he raised the bar even for himself, leading a career-high 602 laps. It was the ninth consecutive season Newgarden has led more than 300 laps in a season. But that isn't the only thing Newgarden did in 2023. 

For the sixth time in his career, Newgarden led the most laps in a season. It was the fifth time in the last six seasons, Newgarden ended the year with the most laps led. It is quite the accomplishment. 

How many other drivers have led the most laps in a season at least six times?

A.J. Foyt (1961, 1963-65, 1975, 1979 USAC)
Bobby Unser (1968, 1971-74, 1979 CART)
Mario Andretti (1966-67, 1969, 1984-85, 1987)

That's it. That's the list. 

When it is you, Foyt, Andretti and Bobby Unser, you have done something special. 

As I mentioned before, Newgarden will only be 33 years old next season, plus there are two races at Milwaukee. Newgarden has a great chance at making IndyCar history and doing something none of the other three did.

Hélio Castroneves and Tony Kanaan: 25-Year Careers
This was always going to be a sentimental year for two of IndyCar's most notable drivers. For Tony Kanaan, this was set to be his final Indianapolis 500. For Hélio Castroneves, this was likely to be his final full season in IndyCar, again. The 2023 season was going to mark the turning of the page for these careers, which started in the 20th century. 

Castroneves and Kanaan started their IndyCar careers on the same day, March 15, 1998. For Kanaan, his final start will be May 28, 2023. For Castroneves, he has at least one more planned Memorial Day weekend at 16th and Georgetown in 2024. Either way, they both surpassed the 25-year mark in their IndyCar careers. They became the 19th and 20th drivers to have a career span a quarter-century. 

They were only the third and fourth drivers to reach the 25-year milestone in the 21st century, joining Al Unser, Jr. and Buddy Lazier. It could be a while until the next driver hits this mark. If Juan Pablo Montoya returns for another Indianapolis 500, his career will span 25 years. Scott Dixon will likely reach this mark. After that, it s unclear who could be next. Few have the staying power of Castroneves and Kanaan. We all know that. 

Katherine Legge: Ten Years Between Starts
Legge was once a full-timer in Champ Car, hung around IndyCar with the introduction of the DW12 chassis and then she was gone. To sports cars, but she was out of IndyCar circles for the most part, except for a failed program known as Grace Autosport. 

This year, Legge had the support to run an additional entry with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing at the Indianapolis 500. She ended up being the top RLLR qualifier for a team that struggled and failed to get all four cars into the race. It was the first time she had started an IndyCar race since 2013, more specifically, it was ten years and two days between starts. 

Legge became 12th driver to have at least a decade between IndyCar starts. She joined a select list of "wows" and "whos" to have gone at least ten years between starts. From the likes of Jacques Villeneuve and Juan Pablo Montoya to Jack Hewitt and Steve Kinser and John Andretti and then a collection of drivers from decades ago (Raúl Riganti, anyone?), Legge is now a part of that company. 

Here's to it not being another decade between Legge appearances.

Santino Ferrucci: Five Top Ten Finishes in First Five Indianapolis 500 Starts
We were onto this at the start of the year because Ferrucci had the chance to do something that only two other drivers had ever done before. Only two other drivers had finished in the top five in their first five Indianapolis 500 starts. Ferrucci entered this May having finished seventh, fourth, sixth and tenth in his first four appearances. 

Only Harry Hartz and Hélio Castroneves had started five-for-five in their Indianapolis 500 careers. History was not necessarily on Ferrucci's side, and yet, he had his best Indianapolis 500 to date as A.J. Foyt Racing had its best race in over a decade. 

Ferrucci qualified fourth and spent much of the race at the front. He led 11 laps. A slight stumble on a pit stop cost him some time, but Ferrucci was in the mix in the closing laps and ended up finishing third, the best result of his IndyCar career. 

Among drivers with at least five Indianapolis 500 starts, Ferrucci's now ranks fourth all-time in average finish at 6.0 behind only Bill Holland, Ted Horn and Jimmy Murphy. Heading into 2024, Ferrucci has a chance to make some more history, and do something never done before.

Álex Palou: 3.7059 Average Finish
We end with our champion. Palou locked up his second championship a race early something IndyCar had not seen in over 15 years. The Spaniard won five races, his worst result was eighth, he completed 2,258 of 2,260 laps. In four seasons, Palou has two championships. He already has nine career victories in 64 career starts. He is already leaving an impression on the record book and have his named littered across many different categories before his time is up. 

With how he ran this season, it should be no surprise Palou's average finish was 3.7059. Imagine your average day being better than a fourth-place finish. That is extraordinary to do. How extradorinary? Since 1946, it was only the 19th time the champion has had an average finish below four. Nineteen times might not sound that exclusive, but let's put Palou's finish into greater context. 

It was the best average finish for a champion since reunification. The previous best was Scott Dixon's 4.2 in 2018. Of those other champions with an average finish better than fourth, ten of those occurred during some kind of split, whether it be the USAC-CART split or the CART-IRL split. Not to take away from those championship performances, but Palou has been competing in one series with all the competition for American open-wheel racing in one place. This was the best average finish for a champion during a period of IndyCar stability since A.J. Foyt had an average finish of 3.5 while taking the 1975 championship. 

We were used to the championship going to the wire and even when a driver had an exceptional season, someone remained close enough or was perhaps equally as good. We don't know when we will see another season like Palou's. I don't expect it to be the norm for a driver to win a half-dozen races and finish on the podium over ten times a season from here moving forward. IndyCar might have been due for an early championship claim, it might be due for another as well, but I don't think after almost two decades of finale drama we are going to see a decade of contests decided with races to spare. 

IndyCar is going to remain competitive. We are going to have tight contests that could see three, four or even five drivers with a chance at the championship in the final race. There will be years where it will be Team Penske vs. Chip Ganassi Racing to the final day, and who knows? Maybe even Andretti Autosport and Arrow McLaren can get a driver in the title fight!

For 2023, we had Palou, a driver who had been the talk of IndyCar off the racetrack for the entire offseason, force us to continue to talk about him for what he did behind the wheel of a race car. That might not change in 2024, and might not change for quite some time. 



Wednesday, December 13, 2023

2023 NASCAR Milestones

We see the end of December approaching, we can use these days to reflect on what occurred in 2023. As we did with Formula One, we acknowledge a few achievements from this past NASCAR season. It was the 75th anniversary for the sanctioning body, and a few notable milestones were reached. For a few, it was the final acts for their careers. For others, these were building blocks as drivers attempt to boost their legacies.

Hendrick Motorsports: 301 NASCAR Cup Series Victories
The most successful Cup team already, Hendrick Motorsports had 300 Cup victories in the organization's view from the start of the season. All Hendrick Motorsports needed was nine victories to reach 300, something that was more than achievable. Nine victories is something the team regularly achieves at the Cup level.

When previewing possible milestones before the season began, it was penciled for some time in autumn. When did the ninth victory come? 

It was the first race of autumn, September 24, at Texas Motor Speedway, where William Byron won, Byron's sixth victory of the season. Kyle Larson took Hendrick to 301 victories three weeks later at Las Vegas. 

It is unexplored territory, and Hendrick Motorsports is the first one there, something that has been rather common in NASCAR.

Denny Hamlin: 51 NASCAR Cup Series Victories
Fifty victories is a significant milestone in the NASCAR Cup Series. It is a short list of the greatest drivers to reach 50 victories. Many great drivers haven't reach 50 victories, though it hasn't been for a lack of skill or effort.

Denny Hamlin had been closing in on 50 victories for a few seasons and he made it his stated desire to reach the milestone mark. He needed two victories to reach 50. His first victory came after a sensational battle with Kyle Larson at Kansas in May. Number 50 came at the location of Hamlin's first career victory, Pocono. It came after another fierce battle with Larson, this one hurt feelings. 

Hamlin didn't care. He became the 15th driver to reach 50 career victories. He is only the fourth driver whose career has begun in the last 30 years to reach the mark. Hamlin added his 51st victory at Bristol in September. Sitting 13th all-time, he is three behind Lee Petty and four behind Rusty Wallace with another desired milestone, 60 victories, only nine away. If he reaches 61, Hamlin will enter the top ten.

Ryan Blaney: 100th driver to 300 NASCAR Cup Series Starts
You would think the champion deserves some recognition, and we will give Blaney his moment, but we have already pointed out a few historical notes from his championship season. Instead of rehashing those, let's note something that has not been mentioned about Blaney's career. 

His 300th start came at Texas in September, the same day Hendrick Motorsports reached 300 victories coincidentally enough. He became the 100th driver to reach 300 Cup starts! What a fun drop note in history! 

Someone had to be the 100th driver to start 300 races. A few drivers are closing in on 300 starts. A series events over the last decade allowed Blaney to be that guy. Does it mean anything? Not really, but 300 starts is a mark, nearly a decade into a career. It shows a driver has some staying power. Kyle Larson surpassed 300 starts earlier this season, but we talk about Larson enough and Blaney won the championship. Blaney gets the spotlight, and with a championship under his belt, he is well on his way to 300 more starts in the Cup Series.

Kyle Busch: 61 Runner-Up Finishes
We mentioned this one prior to this season. No one wants to finish second, but it is also grueling just to finish second. Add second-place finishes to victories, and you get a true sense of a driver's ability. For Kyle Busch, he already had 60 victories and was tied for ninth all-time in victories before the season began. He didn't just one runner-up result to hit 60 runner-up finishes. 

That came at Austin in March. In the next road course race at Sonoma in June, Busch was second again, increasing his total to 61. He is now tied with Mark Martin for seventh all-time in runner-up finishes.

How many drivers have at least 60 victories and at least 60 runner-up finishes?

Richard Petty
David Pearson
Bobby Allison
Jeff Gordon
Dale Earnhardt
Kevin Harvick
Kyle Busch

It is seven of the ten drivers that have reached 60 victories, so that actually makes it a little less impressive and makes me more inquisitive about the three drivers that didn't do it (Jimmie Johnson didn't even reach 50 runner-up finishes). 

I digress. It is another club membership for Busch.

Chase Elliott: 5000 Laps Led
This was not a great season for Chase Elliott. I doubt Elliott dreamt he would break his leg, miss six races and then miss another race due to a suspension, leading to him to fail to win a race, fail to make the playoffs and take 17th in the final championship standings. 

We are looking for a positive from an otherwise disappointing season. Elliott entered this year needing to lead just 100 laps to reach 5,000 laps led in a career. This was by far the fewest laps Elliott has led in a full-time Cup season (195) but he did reach 5,000 laps led.

It came on lap 38 of the Charlotte roval race in October. Elliott became the 44th driver to lead 5,000 laps in NASCAR Cup competition, and he ended the season with 5,095 laps led.

Let's expand this a little further. 

Elliott has led 5,095 laps in his first 286 starts. That is an average of 17.814 laps per race. He is on pace to reach 10,000 laps led in his 562nd start (target the 24th race of the 2031 season). Elliott is on pace to reach 700 starts exactly at the midway point of the 2035 season). If he makes it that far, his laps led pace would have him at 12,470 laps. 

If he makes it to 828 starts, the same number his father's Bill made (target the second race of the 2039 season when Chase Elliott will be 43 years old, 13 years younger than when his father reached that mark), Chase Elliott is on pace to have led 14,750 laps, 3,337 more than his father and that would have him 12th all-time with probably a few more seasons remaining in his career. 

Shane van Gisbergen: Top Ten Finishes in First Two Cup Starts
We all know Shane van Gisbergen won on his NASCAR Cup Series debut in the Chicago race this past July. That is rather remarkable, considering how few debutant winners there have been in the Cup Series, and considering the most recent won prior to van Gisbergen was Johnny Rutherford in 1963 when the qualifying races for the Daytona 500 counted toward championship. 

However, it wasn't what van Gisbergen did in Chicago that I want to talk about. It is what he did in Indianapolis. Just over a month after his victory, van Gisbergen was back for his second start on the road course at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. It was a respectable drive as the New Zealander finished tenth. It wasn't the breathtaking performance we saw in Chicago, but it showed van Gisbergen could hang with the regulars at a track the Cup drivers at least had a few years of experience racing on. 

Tenth doesn't sound like much to brag about, but with that result, van Gisbergen had done something no one had done in nearly 45 years. 

Van Gisbergen became the first driver to finish in the top ten of his first two Cup starts since Terry Labonte in 1978! 

That was incredible because it feels like somebody would have done it in that time. Many terrific drivers have raced in the Cup Series during that time. Wouldn't it have made sense for it to have happened somewhere between 1978 and 2023? We aren't talking about winning a race like van Gisbergen did. All a driver needed was to finish eighth and ninth in his or her first two starts and that would be enough. 

It is a testament to how difficult it is to crack the top ten even if we think it is a rather pedestrian accomplishment in NASCAR.

In case you are wondering, "Who is the most recent driver to have three consecutive top ten finishes to start a Cup career?" The answer is still Terry Labonte. He was fourth in the 1978 Southern 500 (talk about a hell of a way to make a debut), he was seventh at Richmond the following week and then Labonte was ninth at Martinsville two races later. 

We can worry about starting four-for-four if van Gisbergen get to three-for-three.

Corey LaJoie: Finished Every Cup Race in a Season
It is almost unthinkable that a driver will finish every race in a NASCAR Cup season. It is 36 races long. With places like Daytona and Talladega, and now Atlanta, sharing more characteristics with roulette wheels than racetracks, you are bound to have one day that ends early. However, that was not the case for Corey LaJoie in 2023. LaJoie was running at the finish of all 36 races this year. 

How often does that occur? A little more than you realize, and it has become a common occurrence in recent seasons.

It was the 34th time in Cup Series history, so not quite every other season, but close. Those numbers are misleading as it has happened 31 times since 2000. That is just more than one a season for 24 seasons. LaJoie's season was the 11th time since 2014 a driver has completed every race.

Since 2017, when the damage vehicle policy was introduced, putting cars in accidents on a clock to have the car repaired and back operating at average speed, it has now happened five times. 

Joey Logano and Ty Dillon each finished all 36 races in 2019. Kevin Harvick completed every race in 2020 as did Denny Hamlin in 2021 before LaJoie this year.

In case you are wondering what the record is for most consecutive races completed, it is 89, which Greg Biffle set having completed every race from the 2012 Daytona 500 through the 2014 Kentucky race. Biffle streak fittingly ended in the July 2014 Daytona race. LaJoie has completed 41 consecutive races dating back to 2022. He has to go another full season seeing every checkered flag before we can start talking about breaking Biffle's record.

Justin Allgaier: Third All-Time in Top Five Finishes in NASCAR's Second Division
I am dropping this one in here because we ignore the lower division record books, and sometimes you need to take a moment to really look at what is happening. 

Allgaier has become a career second division driver. After two season in the Cup Series in 2014 and 2015, Allgaier returned to the second division with JR Motorsports and he has been full-time ever since. He had five full seasons before that, had never finished worse than sixth in the championship and he had three victories. 

In the last eight seasons, he has continued to be a regular frontrunner, six times making the final four for the championship race. With that success over such longevity, it should come as no surprise Allgaier has moved up the record book in a number of categories.

In this case, Allgaier's 15 top five finishes in 2023 increased his career total to 143 top five finishes, moving him to third all-time. He surpassed Brad Keselowski, Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth in the record book this season.

Allgaier has a ways to go to reach second. He is 43 behind Kevin Harvick. Kyle Busch holds the record at 226 top five finishes and likely counting. 

Allgaier stands out amongst the names Busch, Harvick, Kenseth, Edwards and Keselowski, but Allgaier should be properly recognized. A driver doesn't accidentally end up third all-time in top five finishes. Even if you think it is just longevity, Allgaier's top five finish percentage of 32.65% is still 24th all-time. 

The unsung drivers should get their moment when it is due.

Kevin Harvick: 826 NASCAR Cup Series Starts
We must acknowledge the career of Kevin Harvick as 2023 marked the final Cup season of Harvick's career. There are a few notes that encapsulate his career and we should look at those starting with... well, his starts. 

Anyone can be the guy who replaces the guy and quickly be forgotten. It is another thing to replace the guy and then go on to have arguably one of the ten best careers in Cup competition. 

Harvick could have replaced Dale Earnhardt, had a few high moments but be out of the seat after four or five average seasons, bounce around through teams, win a few more races in his career, maybe make a championship push or two in his career and then retire. Harvick hung around for over two decades. Forget the championship, regular championship top five finisher and 60 victories for a moment, Harvick became only the tenth driver in Cup Series history to start 800 races. He ended eighth all-time. 

Since the start of 2001, Harvick only missed two races, the 2001 Daytona 500 and the 2002 spring Martinsville race. He started 784 consecutive races to end his career. The greatest ability is availability, and Harvick was always available, and competing at the highest level.

Harvick: Second Most Times Running at the Finish
Some records are near impossible to get in the NASCAR Cup Series because Richard Petty existed, so if you can end up second to Richard Petty that is almost a record in its own right. 

We noted this possible milestone before the end of the season and with Harvick finishing 35 of 36 races this season (the only one he didn't finish was the first Atlanta race), Harvick ends his career running at the finish of 778 races, a finishing percentage of 94.188%. Harvick ended up 57 races shy of Petty's record, at best about one and two-thirds of a season away from possibly surpassing it. Though, Harvick's finishing percentage is 23.665% better than Petty's. 

Harvick was brilliant behind the wheel, rarely stepping over the edge or putting himself in a bad position. You could count on him. Twenty-one times he finished at least 30 races in a season. Four times he was running at the finish of every race. Few will come close to his consistency.

Harvick: 251 Top Five Finishes
Harvick did not win in his final season, leaving him on 60 victories, not a bad number to end on. He only had six top five finishes this season, his fewest since five in 2012, but it was enough for Harvick to get to 250 top five finishes, the ninth driver to reach the milestone. 

He ended up ninth all-time in top five finishes. His top five percentage was 30.39%, 41st all-time, just behind Charlie Glotzbach and just ahead of Tony Stewart and Joey Logano. Throw in 444 top ten finishes and ranking fifth all-time in that category, Harvick is leaving solidly among the all-time greats and he will remain at the top for some time to come.


Monday, December 11, 2023

Musings From the Weekend: A Forgotten Statistic

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

The fastest car at IMSA's test from Daytona will not even be at the 24 Hours of Daytona. A few other drivers have lined up rides for that race and other endurance races. There was testing in Japan, and that included a few names from IMSA and Indy Lights. There was a gala. There was an investigation that apparently nobody asked for. An endurance race was held. IndyCar delayed introducing the hybrid system until after the Indianapolis 500, and Honda is threatening to leave the series, but we will discuss that another day. Trust me, there is plenty of time left in this offseason, 90 days to be specific with 92 days already behind us. I had something else planned to end this year on, and it is a little more fun...

A Forgotten Statistic
After every IndyCar race, the box score summarizes two hours of competition. 

It lists the finishing order, giving each driver's starting position, the number of laps they completed, interval to winner, reason for a retirement and, back in the day, it would even tell you how much each driver earned. 

A box score can also tell you how many laps a driver led, when lead changes occurred, when cautions occurred, what cause the cautions and how many laps were under caution. 

It is quite informative, and it tells you one other thing, but you probably don't even think about it. 

Take a look at the box score from the IndyCar season finale at Laguna Seca. What do you see? What are you not noticing? You probably think you have seen it all. There are no surprises. But take another look, right at the top. If it is at the top, it must be important, no? 

Going from the top to the bottom, you see who had the fastest lap before you see who the winner is. Think about that! Fastest lap means... something. Formula One gives away a point for it, if a driver finishes in the top ten. It is always mentioned in the box score. Again, IndyCar puts it right at the top. If you go to Wikipedia, fastest lap is listed in the race results section for each round along with pole-sitter, most laps led and winner, and yet fastest lap is worth nothing toward the championship. The other three at least earn a driver points. Fastest lap is purely bragging rights. 

Yet, if it is just for bragging rights and we know it is listed in every box score and it is widely publicized for each race, can you name who has the most fastest laps in IndyCar history?

...

You can't! 

You can't even find it in IndyCar's record book, because it is not tracked, or if it is, it is not publicized. Formula One tracks it. IndyCar does not.

You can name the record for most victories (67, A.J. Foyt). 

You can vaguely name the record for most pole positions because Will Power just broke it and you aren't sure what the exact number is but at the moment it is 70 pole positions, a nice round number. 

You could not say the number of fastest laps Scott Dixon, Will Power, Josef Newgarden, Álex Palou, Patricio O'Ward or Colton Herta have in their respective careers and they have all raced exclusively in the 21st century.

No one could fault you for being clueless on what the record is for fastest laps in IndyCar because there isn't an easily obtainable answer. For that matter, there aren't even reliable records of fastest laps for most of IndyCar's history. 

We know every fastest lap in the Indianapolis 500 since 1950, meaning there are 33 editions of the race where fastest lap will forever be a mystery. However, like most of IndyCar's past and present, the Indianapolis 500 is only one race. There are hundreds of other races that have taken place and those matter just as much as the Indianapolis 500 when it comes to record keeping. 

When it comes to each season, it appears the best we can do is have every fastest lap dating back to the start of the 1993 season, which simultaneously isn't that long ago and a large sample of data. IndyCar's history is not going to be told accurately with just the last 30 years, but we might just have to accept that. We already accept holes in the record book. 

For starters, how many records are counted just from 1946 to today? That has generally been accepted in many cases. Heck, even Colton Herta really isn't the youngest winner in IndyCar history, but we consider him because the record book only takes into consideration from 1946 to the present. Though we have records of a younger driver winning a race that counts toward the IndyCar record book. George Joermann is still in the record book as a race winner, but does not get recognized for his rightful place in history.

Certain records will just be lost to history. It is ok. The sack wasn't an official statistic for the NFL until 1982. We will never know the exact sack totals for the likes of Deacon Jones, Dick Butkus and a number of other great defensive players from the first half of the biggest professional sports league in the United States. Yet, the world continues to turn and we have accepted that Bruce Smith holds the record on 200 sacks. 

The same can be done with fastest laps. Yes, it will forever be incomplete and be vacant of some of the greatest names in IndyCar history, but it can be as complete as we have records for and will remain that way as long as we keep tracking it accurately. 

With that being the case, who has the most fastest laps in IndyCar history? 

Again, the best we can do in terms of having complete seasons of fastest lap data is the 1993 season. That is 31 years and 673 races between CART, the Indy Racing League, Champ Car and the reunified IndyCar Series. A tumultuous period that inflated the numbers for drivers on all sides of the split, leaving us with some head-scratching statistics but also did see most of the best talent rise to the top. 

Leading the way would be Sébastien Bourdais with 41 fastest laps. Thanks Champ Car! Thirty-four of Bourdais' 41 fastest laps occurred between 2003 and 2007, including having seven in the 2005 season, nine in the 2006 season and eight in the 2007 season, three of the five times a driver has had at least seven fastest laps in a single season.

Tied for second would be Hélio Castroneves and Scott Dixon, each with 36 and two ahead of Will Power in fourth. Tony Kanaan would round out the top five with 29 fastest laps. Josef Newgarden is three outside the top five with 26 fastest laps. Dario Franchitti would be the final driver with at least 20 as Franchitti ended with 23 fastest laps.

Alex Zanardi, Paul Tracy and Juan Pablo Montoya would round out the top ten with 18, 17 and 15 fastest laps respectively. There would be a three-way tie on 13 between Ryan Briscoe, Tomas Scheckter and Dan Wheldon. Ryan Hunter-Reay sits alone on 12, one more than Emerson Fittipaldi, Bruno Junqueira and Álex Palou would also already be on 11 career fastest laps.

Only four other drivers have ten fastest laps since 1993: Michael Andretti, Jimmy Vasser, Simon Pagenaud and Justin Wilson. 

That would be the top 21 drivers. As for when drivers move up the fastest lap category, we can keep track of it from here going forward. Of course, if more data comes in and we are able to complete more seasons from prior to 1993, those can be added and adjustments can be made. 

For now, the answer we have is Sébastien Bourdais.

Champion From the Weekend

Jules Gounon clinched the Intercontinental GT Challenge championship with a third-place finish in the Gulf 12 Hours with Maximilian Götz and Fabian Schiller in the #14 Mercedes-AMG Team 2 Seas Mercedes-AMG.

Winners From the Weekend

The #99 Mercedes-AMG Team GruppeM Racing Mercedes-AMG of Maro Engel, Mikaël Grenier and Luca Stolz won the Gulf 12 Hour.

Coming Up This Weekend
Nothing really. Enjoy the holiday season and keep an eye out for some awards and some predictions coming between now and the end of the year.


Thursday, December 7, 2023

2023 Formula One Milestones

We are a few weeks removed from the conclusion of the 2023 Formula One season and, on the surface, it looked pretty one-sided, with one driver winning 19 of 22 races and one team going 21-for-22. However, there is a story beyond those numbers, and some should be put into proper context. There were also achievements that were lost in the hubbub of the season. 

This is the chance to pick out a few notable accomplishments from this season and give them proper recognition. 

Max Verstappen: Highest Single Season Winning Percentage
Max Verstappen made a lot of history this season. We could do a list just of Max Verstappen accomplishments. However, nobody wants that, but we do have to recognize a few of Verstappen's accomplishments. He broke records many probably never thought would be touched. 

We are going to cover three records for Verstappen.

For starters, Verstappen's 19 victories out of 22 races meant he had a winning percentage of 86.36%. That didn't just break the record, it shattered it, and it wasn't some small feat either. 

It broke Alberto Ascari's 71-year for highest single season winning percentage. Set in the third season of the Formula One World Championship, Ascari won six of eight races. A few drivers had come close to this record. Michael Schumacher was just under three-percent from matching it with 13 victories in 18 races in 2004. Jim Clark won 70% of the races in 1963. Sebastien Vettel broke 68% in 2013, as did Verstappen in 2022. 

Verstappen had to win 17 races to claim this record, which would have been two more than the single-season record he set the year before. Verstappen didn't just eek over the line to break this record, he put 11% between him and the old mark. He didn't settle for being the first in the 80% club. He went straight to the 85% club.

This record only looks touchable for Max Verstappen at the moment. Even if it isn't him, it looks it will require a near-perfect season for it to be broken again. 

Max Verstappen: Highest Single Season Percentage of Laps Led
Breaking a 71-year-old record is impressive. Breaking a record that Jim Clark has held for 60 years? You have my attention again. 

We all know Verstappen led only 1,000 laps this season, 1,003 laps to be specific, but it isn't just 1,003 laps led. It is 1,003 out of 1,325 laps run the entire season. That is 75.7% of the season. The previous record was Jim Clark, who led 503 of 708 laps in 1963, or 71.47% of the laps run that year.

Nobody else had broken 70% prior to Verstappen this year. The only other driver to break two-third was Nigel Mansell in 1992. Leading half the laps run in a season is actually a little more common than you realize. This was the 20th time a driver has led at least 50% of the laps in season, but to take the top spot, again is staggering. This is another record I am not sure will be matched for quite some time. 

Unless Verstappen goes out and breaks it in 2024.

Max Verstappen: Most Victories from Pole Position in a Single Season
This one is a little less historic, but historic nonetheless, because I don't think many people realize Verstappen set this record this season. When we look back on his 2023 season, we will probably not be surprised to see that Verstappen set the record for most victories from pole position in a single season, but in December 2023, I am not sure many realize he did that. 

For starters, qualifying was the one weak spot for Red Bull. The car was built for long-run pace. It could lose over a single lap on Saturday by a tenth or so and then crush the field by 25 seconds on Sunday. Adrian Newey built a car not focused on the battle but meant to win the war. Look at how many pole positions Ferrari won this season. 

And yet, Verstappen won 12 pole positions this season. Every time he started on pole position, he won the grand prix. Again, in a few years, probably not going to be a surprise when looking back on 2023, but at this moment, no one has mentioned that. It isn't a surprise. The Red Bull RB19 was stellar, but it goes to show when this car was on it was untouchable.

The previous record for victories from pole position in a season was nine. Nigel Mansell set it in 1992. Sebastien Vettel matched it in 2011. Verstappen went three better in 2023. 

Of the three Verstappen records listed, this feels the most attainable for another driver and manufacturer. There is a world where Mercedes turns it around, wins 19 of 22 pole positions in a season and one of its drivers wins 15 races from pole position. This one might not be Verstappen's forever, but if he wants to have better security on it, he should probably win 14 races from pole position in 2024. 

It just goes to show that 2023 was not a perfect season for Red Bull and there is still more work to do. 

Charles Leclerc: 23 Pole Positions
There is nothing really that special about 23 pole positions, but doesn't it feel weird that Charles Leclerc is already at this mark? Leclerc has had a good career so far in Formula One, better than the average driver to step on the grid. But 23 pole positions? It looks a little more startling in context.

Leclerc's five pole positions in 2023 took him ahead of Fernando Alonso, who has 22 career pole positions. He surpassed Damon Hill, Valtteri Bottas, Mario Andretti, René Arnoux and Kimi Räikkönen as well this year. 

Leclerc is now 14th all-time. With two more pole positions, he surpasses Niki Lauda and Nelson Piquet. With four, he goes ahead of Mika Häikkinen. If Leclerc wins five pole positions again, he is on the door step of tenth all-time. If he wins six, he ties Juan Manuel Fangio for tenth all-time.

It feels a little unsuspected that Leclerc is already pushing tenth all-time in pole positions. Again, he has had a good career, but this good? The Monegasque driver has only five career victories. He has made his fair share of errors, but Ferrari has not been helping him. He probably should have another three or four victories easily. 

It is a strange juxtaposition to see 23 pole positions and only five career victories. But, one-lap pace is one thing and an entire grand prix is another universe. This could end up being the story of Leclerc's career.

Fernando Alonso: 20th Season
Twenty seasons does not sound like much of an accomplishment, but consider this: Fernando Alonso became the first driver to ever compete in 20 Formula One seasons. Debuting in 2001 with Minardi, Alonso appeared in 16 consecutive seasons from 2003 to 2018 with Renault, McLaren and Ferrari before taking a two-year hiatus to focus on the FIA World Endurance Championship and Dakar Rally with Toyota.

In 2021, Alonso returned with Alpine and joined Aston Martin for the 2023 season. 

Someone had to be first to 20 seasons. It makes sense it was Alonso. Rubens Barrichello was first to 19. Michael Schumacher was second, thanks to a sabbatical, same for Kimi Räikkönen. Let's hand it to Alonso. He will at least reach it to 21. We could not rule out a 22nd season. 

Another driver will reach 20 seasons someday. The closest is Lewis Hamilton on 17 seasons, due for 18 in 2024. Hamilton might call it quits before 20 seasons, and in that case it could be a while before some reaches Alonso territory.

Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton: 300 Grand Prix Finished
To finish first you must first finish. It has been a minute since either Alonso or Hamilton finished first, but they each reached previously uncharted territory this season, and they each did it in the final two races of the season. 

They became the first two drivers to successfully finish 300 grand prix in a career. Alonso reached the mark first at the Las Vegas Grand Prix. Hamilton hit 300 while Alonso went to 301 in Abu Dhabi. 

This is a longevity achievement, and one aided with the expansion of the Formula One calendar, as well as increased reliability, but credit to each driver. These have been two of the best drivers in the 21st century. Hamilton has seen the checkered flag in 90.36% of his starts. The only drivers with a better finishing percentage with at least ten starts are Roberto Mehri (12 out of 13!) and Max Chilton (32 out of 35!). 

Credit where credit is due.

McLaren: 500 Podium Finishes
The last decade or so has been rather difficult for McLaren. Arguably, this has been the toughest decade of the manufacturer's existence. This year did not start pretty either, but McLaren made a remarkable turnaround and ended up creating a little history before it was over. 

When Oscar Piastri crossed the finish line in second for the Qatar Grand Prix, it was the 500th podium finish for McLaren, making it only the second manufacturer to reach 500 podium finishes. Ferrari was the first. 

McLaren didn't have to wait long for podium #501. It came about 1.1 seconds later when Lando Norris finished third at Lusail. At the end of the season, McLaren concluded with 503 podium finishes, 304 podium finishes behind Ferrari's all-time lead and 190 podium finishes clear of Williams in third.

Lando Norris: 13 Podium Finishes
Some might find it concerning we are recognizing the number 13, and this isn't necessarily a celebratory moment either. Norris ended 2023 with 13 podium finishes. He had seven podium finishes this year, his most in a single season. 

However, with 13 podium finishes, Norris is now tied with Nick Heidfeld for most podium finishes without a victory.

Like Charles Leclerc, doesn't it feel early for Norris to already be at this mark? Norris just completed his fifth season and he has reached a mark Nick Heidfeld has become famous for. It doesn't feel right. 

There is a good chance someday this will go back to being Heidfeld's record and Heidfeld's record alone. At 24 years old, Norris should win one grand prix someday, but for the moment, he shares a record, though likely one he hopes not to share for too longer.

Nico Hülkenberg: 203 Starts
Hey! Did anyone see this one coming? Nico Hülkenberg reached 200 career starts this season. I guess it makes sense, but really? Hülkenberg at 200 starts? He was sidelined for the better part of two seasons and it looked like his Formula One career was over prior to 2020. It found new life as a substitute driver and then as a late replacement for Nikita Mazepin. 

This revival has brought him to 200 starts and beyond, and it will continue to increase as Hülkenberg will be back for at least the 2024 season. 

With the length of the calendar, 200 is going to become the new 100. A lot of drivers are going to reach it. Hülkenberg is at the start of the trend. He was only the 22nd. 

Who else is closing in on 200?

Max Verstappen is on 185. He will hit 200, fittingly, at Zandvoort if everything goes as planned in 2024, a little over a month before turning 27 years old. 

Carlos Sainz, Jr. is only two starts behind Verstappen. Sainz, Jr. will only be two weeks removed from his 30th birthday if everything goes as planned. 

It is a stretch, but Kevin Magnussen is on 163, Lance Stroll is at 144, Esteban Ocon is on 133 and Pierre Gasly is at 130 with Charles Leclerc at 123. Lando Norris and George Russell are each at 104 starts. 

Those are the remaining drivers above 100 starts. It feels like six of those remaining nine names will reach 200 at some point. 

Yuki Tsunoda: Most Laps Led for a Japanese Driver
We all heard this one during the season finale from Abu Dhabi, or at least we heard Tsunoda became only the second Japanese driver to lead a Formula One race. That is a little surprising. 

Prior to Tsunoda, Takuma Sato led two laps in the 2004 European Grand Prix from the Nürburgring, laps ten and 11 to be specific. Sato was the only of 21 Japanese drivers to participate in a Formula One race weekend to lead a lap. Until Tsunoda. 

Tsunoda led five laps in Abu Dhabi, as he ran a different strategy hoping to leap up the grid and score enough points to take AlphaTauri ahead of Williams in the constructors' championship. He didn't quite get the points necessary to usurp Williams, but Tsunoda made a small place for himself in Formula One history.



Wednesday, December 6, 2023

2023 Motorcycle Predictions: Revisited

This is our final set of predictions revisited, and these are predictions of the two-wheel variety. From the glitz of the grand prix scene to the forgotten about World Superbike championship to the dirt of Supercross and Motocross, we were looking at all of it prior to the start of 2023. There were some tense championship battles across the board. There were some predictions that were wildly wrong. A few were close. A few were right. See for yourself. 

MotoGP
1. Marc Márquez finishes in the top five of the championship
Wrong!

What can I say? I was optimistic that 2023 would be the year for the Marc Márquez turnaround. Third time's the charm, right? It looked very promising at the first round where Márquez started on pole position in Portugal and finished third in the first sprint race. However, that was the high point because Márquez then had a collision with Miguel Oliveira on lap three in the grand prix, which left him with an injury and took him out of the next three races.

That's ok. Márquez has done some special stuff after missing races. While, Márquez kept falling and missed two more races due to a thumb injury. Entering the summer break, he had yet to finish a grand prix with all his points being from sprint races. 

Things improved from there. He scored points in nine of the final 11 grand prix, including a third in Japan, but he could only finish 14th in the championship with 96 points.

2. At no point will one manufacture have won five consecutive pole positions
Wrong!

This one was very wrong. Marc Márquez won the first pole position of the season in Portugal for Honda. Ducati won the next two before Aleix Espargaró won pole positions for Aprilia at Jerez. 

Ducati then went on to win 15 consecutive pole positions from Le Mans in May through Qatar in November. Maverick Viñales ended the streak taking pole position for the Valencia finally, but even then Viñales didn't start first in the grand prix due to a three-spot penalty for not respecting the black flag with orange circle during the warm-up session, meaning Francesco Bagnaia inherited the top spot. 

Viñales still got credit for the Valencia pole position, not that it matter as this prediction was shot in Austria in July. 

3. The Ducati Desmosedici GP22 will have at least four podium finishes
Correct!

This might have been setting the bar low, but we weren't sure how good the Desmosedici GP23 would be. Ducati was stellar whether it was the new bike or the year-old bike. 

The Desmosedici GP22 was on the podium in the opening race with Marco Bezzecchi. In the next round, Bezzecchi won and Álex Márquez was third. Luca Marini was then third in Austin and this prediction was fulfilled in the third round. 

The Desmosedici GP22 ended up with 13 podium finishes this season. Along with Bezzecchi's victory in Argentina, he won at Le Mans and in India. Fabio Di Giannantonio made it four victories for the GP22 in Qatar. 

4. There will be at least seven occasions where the sprint race winner wins the grand prix
Correct!

Eight times the sprint race winner won the grand prix. 

Jorge Martín won both races on four occasions: Germany, Misano, Japan and Thailand.

Francesco Bagnaia was responsible for three of those, Portugal, Italy and Austria.

The only other rider to do it was Aleix Espargaró in Barcelona.

5. Pedro Acosta will be one of the top two Spaniards in the Moto2 championship
Correct!

Not only was Acosta one of the top two Spaniards in Moto2, he was the top ride in Moto2, as Acosta won the championship. The man from Mazarrón won seven races, stood on the podium 14 times and he scored points in 19 of 20 races. The exception was the French Grand Prix. 

Acosta won the title by 83 points over Tony Arbolino. He was 120.5 points clear of Fermín Aldeguer in third, the second best Spaniard in Moto2 this season. Jake Dixon was fourth on 204 points, 128.5 points off Acosta. Spaniard Arón Canet rounded the top five, 137.5 points behind Acosta.

6. There will be South American winners in multiple classes
Correct!

The one that was not a surprise was Brazilian Eric Granado winning the fourth race of the MotoE season at Mugello. Granado has now won a race in five consecutive MotoE season. 

The next South American victory would be Colombia's David Alonso winning at Silverstone in Moto3. It was the first of four victories for Alonso this season as he won consecutive races at Barcelona and Misano and then won in Thailand.

However, Granado wasn't the only Brazilian winner this year as Diogo Moreira won the Moto3 race in Indonesia. 

Six South American victories this season across the four world championship classes. 

World Superbike/World Supersport
7. Dominique Aegerter will have at least one accident riding in a top three position where he takes down another rider with him
Wrong!

This prediction was always going to be one tougher to track. Aegerter had a rather clean debut season in World Superbike, but he didn't really spend much time at the front. When going oer the lap chart for each round, it became apparent how his season went. 

Obviously, for this prediction to be correct, Aegerter would have had to be in a top three position. Well, he didn't spend a lap in the top three until the SuperPole race from Jerez, the penultimate race of the season. Along with spending all eight laps in the top three of the SuperPole race, he spent 12 of 20 laps in the top three of the final race of the season in Jerez.

With 20 total laps in the top three, Aegerter didn't have one incident during that psan and therefore did not take down another rider with him. Prediction incorrect. 

8. There will be a minimum of two first-time WSBK winners
Wrong!

There were no first-time World Superbike winners this season. 

Álvaro Bautista won 27 of 36 races this season. Toprak Razgatlioglu won seven times. Jonathan Rea won once and Michael Ruben Rinaldi won for the first time in about two years.

However, no first-time winners.

Danilio Petrucci didn't win, the closest he came was second at Most. Andrea Locatelli is still looking for his first career victory and Locatelli was second in the Indonesia SuperPole race. Axel Bassani was even runner-up in a race at Imola. Dominique Aegerter was runner-up in the final SuperPole race of the season in Jerez.

Four riders with no World Superbike victories ended up runner-up this season. So close and yet so far.

9. There will be at least four races where two of Álvaro Bautista, Toprak Razgatlioglu and Jonathan Rea are not on the podium and at least one of those is a SuperPole race
Wrong!

We were on a great track early in the season. 

In the second race from Phillip Island, the third race of the season, Bautista won with Rinaldi and Locatelli on the podium. That was one. 

In the Indonesia SuperPole race, race five of the season, Razgatlioglu won ahead of Locatelli and Alex Lowes was third. 

We were halfway to fulfilling this prediction through five of 36 races. 

Over the final 31 races, two of Bautista, Razgatlioglu and Rea were on the podium each time. In 25 of the final 31 races, Bautista and Razgatlioglu were on the podium. It was Bautista who was the one missing in four of the other six races. 

10. There will be six weekend sweeps or fewer in World Supersport
Wrong!

This one is a little crushing. 

Entering the final round at Jerez, there had been six sweeps.

Nicolò Bulega had swept the round at Phillip Island, Assen, Donington Park, Magny-Cours and Aragón. 

Stefano Manzi swept the Imola round.

What happens in the finale? Bulega swept the final two races. Yep. Of course. 

If you go back to the first weekend of the season, this could have been avoided. Bulega passed Manzi on the final lap in the second race from Phillip Island. Manzi holds on and then the final weekend is moot. 

Supercross/Motocross
11. The Supercross season opener winner will have multiple victories in 2023
Correct!

Eli Tomac pulled off an impressive comeback ride in the Anaheim season opener after he fell but overcame an eight-second deficit to win the season opener. After four consecutive seasons where the Supercross season opener winner did not win again, Tomac put this prediction to bed in the second round, winning in San Diego, fulfilling this prediction as quickly as possible. 

For good measure, Tomac won seven races this season.

12. The SuperMotocross champion will have an average championship finish greater than 2.5 between Supercross and Motocross
Wrong!

What I didn't see coming was the 450cc SuperMotocross champion being the 250cc West Supercross champion. Jett Lawrence moved into the 450cc class for the 2023 Motocross season, where he went 24-for-24, winning every race and taking that championship. I wasn't considering that possible outcome, but I am not going to claim this on a technicality. 

Lawrence was first his Supercross championship and first in his Motocross championship. He won the SuperMotocross championship by winning two of the final three rounds

Ok... five-for-12. Not great. A few tough ones to swallow. It happens. Some years, the tough ones go in your favor. Some years, they do not. 



Monday, December 4, 2023

Musings From the Weekend: International Dependency

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

There will be no driver changes in Formula One from the final round of 2023 to the first round of 2024. Four of the last five Formula Two championships will not be in Formula One. Two will be competing in the Hypercar class in the FIA World Endurance Championship. The other two are doing nothing. Some awards were handed out in Nashville. MotoGP did some testing. Álex Palou picked the wrong time to admit the truth. IndyCar is already teasing 2025 events, which has me thinking...

International Dependency
We haven't even gotten to 2024 and Penske Entertainment CEO Mark Miles is already looking for a new, major event in 2025 for IndyCar. What exactly that major event will be is a mystery. We are a long way from any 2025 events being announced. Miles and IndyCar have plenty of time to construct something, but forgive us for our pessimism. 





But hey, 2025 will be a new day, and we might not even need to wait until 2025. Argentina is still on the table as a possible postseason exhibition race in late 2024. Miles admitted it is quite feasible for IndyCar to make the trip to South America. If it comes off then great, but there is a shortcoming to Argentine expansion. 

This interest has come thanks to Agustín Canapino, a multi-time champion in domestic Argentine competition who moved to IndyCar for the 2023 season to drive for fellow Argentine Ricardo Juncos at Juncos Hollinger Racing. With Canapino in IndyCar, it brought a new audience to the table, and now a race is possible.

But what if Canapino never came to IndyCar? What if he said no thanks to Juncos' offer or what if Juncos decided to remain a one-car team for 2023 and onward? Would we be thinking Argentina is a possibility even as an exhibition race? 

While we are hopeful for big events joining the IndyCar schedule and are interested in international races, there is a limitation if races are only possible because of one driver in the series. Canapino might be beloved at home, but based on year one, the results must improve for him to have a long-term presence on the grid. If Canapino is gone after two or three or four years, will Argentina still be interested in a race? 

If IndyCar wants international races, it cannot base the success of those event on whether or not it has a representative from that country in the series. It is bound to catch IndyCar out. If IndyCar wants a race in Argentina, it should probably make an offer to José María López to have him join the series as well and be openly recruiting Franco Colapinto and every other up-and-comer from Argentina, a rather risky strategy and a questionable one at that. Canapino cannot carry all the weight. That is the only way to ensure longevity for such a race.

But that shouldn't be the case for a truly successful race. If IndyCar is going anywhere, it should be going because there is general interest in IndyCar, and that is what the series should be trying to grow. 

For close to five years now we have been talking about the potential of Patricio O'Ward and a return to Mexico but it has produced no true south of the border. But it should not require O'Ward for IndyCar to race in Mexico. The belief has always been that the only way a race in Mexico would work is with a Mexican driver, but have you seen the success of the Mexican Grand Prix? Sergio Pérez helps, but we are approaching a time when Pérez will not be on the Formula One grid. Do we believe for a second the moment Pérez is gone the Mexican Grand Prix will fall off the schedule or attendance will shrink to nothing? No. Mexico could probably go a decade without a driver and the Mexican Grand Prix will be fine. 

The Formula E race from Mexico City has grown every year it has taken place and there have been only two Mexican driver to ever compete in the series, and the most recent to compete was Esteban Gutiérrez in 2017.

There is obviously a playbook to success that IndyCar does not have its hands on. 

IndyCar has been billed as an international series for years, and it is hard to argue against that. There are at least a dozen countries represented on the grid in every race. Winners are coming from all over the globe. It is producing winners from more different continents than Formula One. These are drivers coming from many different disciplines as well. Yet, IndyCar does not have a connection with many places outside of the United States and Canada. 

Some of that has to do with perception. During the high times of Dario Franchitti and Dan Wheldon, the United Kingdom didn't know those guys existed. Some of that has to do with the number of British drivers in Formula One. The Formula One drivers are always going to get the attention. There is no reason to rate the British drivers competing in the United States. The belief in Great Britain is if a driver was any good, he would be competing in Formula One. 

There are a few places that are open to IndyCar. Sweden has embraced it, partially because of Marcus Ericsson and Felix Rosenqvist competing. It has had a good following from Australia and New Zealand after decades of success from Will Power and Scott Dixon with Scott McLaughlin and possibly Marcus Armstrong carrying that interest forward. The question is can IndyCar turn the attention due to locals into sustained interested in the series even after those drivers are gone? That is the real challenge. 

It is not unheard of for an American sports league to have an international following, especially with many top players coming from outside the United States. The NBA has done wonders, and some of the most recognizable players in the league come from foreign countries. Major League Baseball has a following in the Caribbean and Japan. The NHL has in-roads in Scandinavia and parts of Europe. Even the NFL is growing and hosting games abroad. 

There is enough potential that IndyCar could have a few international hotbeds. If it gets hot enough, it could draw a race, but those places must remain interested long after the locals are gone. Formula One caught on in the United States despite the lack of an American driver and, no offense to Logan Sargeant, any increasing interest isn't because of the American driver currently competing. 

If people are interested in good racing, IndyCar could be right up their alley, but IndyCar must make itself known and connect with these viewers, otherwise it will be a series with flashes of interest from all over the globe but nothing that turns into a burning fire. If IndyCar is looking to race beyond the borders of the United States, it will need prolonged passion from international pockets. 

Winners From the Weekend

The #99 99 Racing Oreca-Gibson of Louis Delétraz, Nikita Mazepin and Ahmad Al Harthy won the first 4 Hours of Sepang. The #17 COOL Racing Ligier-Nissan of James Winslow, Danial Frost and Alexander Bukhantsov won the LMP3 class. The #42 Saintéloc Racing Audi of Christopher Haase, Gilles Magnus and Alban Varutti won the GT class.

The #4 CrowdStrike Racing by APR Oreca-Gibson of Colin Braun, George Kurtz and Malthe Jakobsen won the second 4 Hours of Sepang. The #2 CD Sport Ligier-Nissan of Michael Jensen, Nick Adcock and Fabien Lavergne won the LMP3 class. The #91 Pure Rxing Porsche of Klaus Bachler, Joel Turn and Alex Malykhin won the GT class.

Coming Up This Weekend
The Gulf 12 Hour from Abu Dhabi closes out the Intercontinental GT Challenge season.




Friday, December 1, 2023

2023 Formula One Predictions: Revisited

After the third consecutive season with 22 Formula One races, we can finally put a bow on the 2023 season and wrap up with addressing the predictions made for this season nearly a year ago. Some things changed. Many things didn't. Broken records ended up being a common theme this year. There were not many surprises. You could argue there were none. If there were no surprises, how did the predictions turn out? Any incorrect prediction would have gone against expectations, no? Maybe there were some surprises after all.

1. Three teams will have multiple winners
Wrong!

This is what you get for being optimistic. Only two teams won all season. Only three drivers won. That math does not add up. Red Bull won 21 of 22 races. That's it. That's the only team with multiple victories this season. Carlos Sainz, Jr. won at Singapore, Ferrari's only victory. Mercedes went winless for the first time since 2011. McLaren had six runner-up finishes, tied for the most this season with Red Bull. Fernando Alonso was responsible for all eight of Aston Martin's podium finishes. Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon each stood on the podium once for Alpine, but that is the close we got to this prediction being correct. 

2. Red Bull will not win majority of the races where a Ferrari driver starts on pole position
Wrong!

If I got the first one wildly wrong, this one wasn't going to be close to correct either. 

Ferrari started on pole position seven times in 2023. Red Bull won six of them. At least Ferrari was not shut out but it was not favorable for the Scuderia either. Charles Leclerc is feeling the brunt of this prediction. Leclerc has won eight pole positions since his most recent victory and he has failed to win from pole position in 12 consecutive races where he has rolled off from first.  

3. Mercedes will have at least eight podium finishes in the first 11 races of the season
Wrong!

Mercedes had five podium finishes in the first 11 races. Aston Martin had more in the first 11 races than Mercedes. Mercedes did have four fourth-place finishes in those 11 races. Close but not good enough in this game.

4. Oscar Piastri will score at least 30% of McLaren's point total
Correct!

This one turned out to be close because after McLaren's slow start and significant turnaround, Lando Norris was earning points at a faster rate than Oscar Piastri, who still had a wonderful season. Out of McLaren's 302 points, Piastri was responsible for 97 points, or 32.119%. 

It should be pointed out that through nine races McLaren had 29 points. McLaren averaged 21 points per race over the final 13 events! A remarkable turnaround from where the season started. Through the first nine races, Piastri had five points. He scored 92 points in the final 13 races, an average of 7.0769 points per start. 

5. Alpine will have at least one classified car in the 17th race of the season
Correct!

Entering this season, the team operating as Alpine had failed to have a classified car in the 17th race of the season in three of the prior four years. This year, at Qatar, how did this team do? Both cars made it to the finish with Esteban Ocon picking up six points for a seventh-place finish while Pierre Gasly scored no points but saw the checkered flag in 12th. Progress.

6. Logan Sargeant will score less than 47% of Alexander Albon's point total
Correct!

This one might have never been in question, but Sargeant didn't really come close to giving Albon a run for his money in the Williams' stable this year. Sargeant scored one point, or 1/27th or 3.7037% of Albon's point total this season. The American driver's only point was fittingly for finishing tenth in the United States Grand Prix in Austin, and it really only came because Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc were disqualified for illegal skid block wear. 

Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. It wasn't a horrid season by any stretch for Sargeant, but he didn't impressive anyone either.

7. Nico Hülkenberg's first point scoring race finish of the season will not be a seventh-place finish
Wrong!

Entering 2023, Hülkenberg's first points scoring finish of the season had been seventh-place in five of the previous seven seasons. Where did Hülkenberg finish for his first points finish this season? 

That would be seventh in the third round of the season, the Australian Grand Prix. It nearly wasn't that case as Carlos Sainz, Jr. was fourth on the road but a five-second time penalty for causing a collision knocked Sainz, Jr. out of the points. There were also four cars that were taken out in the one restart on lap 57. Plenty of circumstances conspired together to see Hülkenberg finish seventh for his first points of the season again. 

8. Nyck de Vries will clinch the intra-team, head-to-head AlphaTauri battle by the Qatar Grand Prix
Wrong!

De Vries didn't even make it to the Qatar Grand Prix, replaced after the British Grand Prix with Daniel Ricciardo taking his seat. De Vries went 2-8 head-to-head with Yuki Tsunoda in their ten races together as teammates. De Vries was 12th at Monaco while Tsunoda was 15th. At Austria, de Vries was 17th with Tsunoda in 19th. 

That was it. Heck, this prediction was wrong before de Vries was even canned. Once Tsunoda beat him at Montreal this prediction was wrong and could not be flipped. It was not a great experience for de Vries at AlphaTauri, but he will always have the 2022 Italian Grand Prix.

9. Lance Stroll does not cause an accident on a straightaway
Correct!

No one can act like this was a spectacular season for Lance Stroll. In a year where his teammate beat him by 132 points in the championship and Aston Martin ended up finishing fifth despite being third and 97 points clear of fifth at the halfway point of the season, Stroll performed to the minimum level of this car. There must be at least a dozen drivers in the world who could have scored 23 points more than Stroll did in 2023 and at least kept Aston Martin in the top four. 

Points aside, this prediction was about Stroll's driving and after looking back to see if he had an accident on a straightaway, I cannot find one. He had a few incidents in corners, including one coming onto a straightaway, but none were Stroll running into another driver going in a straight line. Again, progress. 

10. There will be a driver who gets his first career fastest lap
Correct!

Not only was there a driver who got his first career fastest lap, there were two drivers that had their first career fastest laps. 

We had to wait for a while, but the first was Oscar Piastri was the Italian Grand Prix. The second was Yuki Tsunoda at the United States Grand Prix. Nine drivers had a fastest lap this season. 

No surprise, Max Verstappen led the way with nine. Lewis Hamilton had four. Sergio Pérez and Piastri each ended the season with two, Piastri's second was at Las Vegas. Guanyu Zhou had the fastest lap in the season opener. George Russell's only fastest lap was at Baku. Fernando Alonso's fastest lap at Zandvoort was his first fastest lap in over six years. There was the aforementioned Tsunoda. Lando Norris picked up fastest lap on his way to finishing runner-up at Interlagos. 

11. A safety car period will occur during at least two sprint races
Correct!

The first safety car period in a sprint race came in the first sprint race of the season at Baku after Yuki Tsunoda had an accident after only two laps. 

The second safety car period in a sprint race came at Spa-Francorchamps when Fernando Alonso spun off course and beached his car on lap three. 

12. Average American viewership per race decreases by at least 10%
Wrong!

But this one was fairly close. Thanks to the internet, we were able to track the ratings for each Formula One race shown in the United States and we know the average viewership this year was 1,093,273 viewers that is down from 1,210,000 average viewership in 2022, but that was only a 9.64% decrease. Close, but close is only good in horseshoes and hand grenades.

I think we all can admit the Las Vegas race got a better television rating than expected and that likely saved it from the 10% decrease.

Six-for-12 or 50%. Kind of streaky, no? Three wrong then three correct. Two wrong then three correct. One wrong to cap it off. There have been worse sets of predictions, but there have also been far better ones as well. It was at least on par with last year.