This is our final set of predictions revisited, and these are predictions of the two-wheel variety. From the glitz of the grand prix scene to the forgotten about World Superbike championship to the dirt of Supercross and Motocross, we were looking at all of it prior to the start of 2023. There were some tense championship battles across the board. There were some predictions that were wildly wrong. A few were close. A few were right. See for yourself.
MotoGP
1. Marc Márquez finishes in the top five of the championship
Wrong!
What can I say? I was optimistic that 2023 would be the year for the Marc Márquez turnaround. Third time's the charm, right? It looked very promising at the first round where Márquez started on pole position in Portugal and finished third in the first sprint race. However, that was the high point because Márquez then had a collision with Miguel Oliveira on lap three in the grand prix, which left him with an injury and took him out of the next three races.
That's ok. Márquez has done some special stuff after missing races. While, Márquez kept falling and missed two more races due to a thumb injury. Entering the summer break, he had yet to finish a grand prix with all his points being from sprint races.
Things improved from there. He scored points in nine of the final 11 grand prix, including a third in Japan, but he could only finish 14th in the championship with 96 points.
2. At no point will one manufacture have won five consecutive pole positions
Wrong!
This one was very wrong. Marc Márquez won the first pole position of the season in Portugal for Honda. Ducati won the next two before Aleix Espargaró won pole positions for Aprilia at Jerez.
Ducati then went on to win 15 consecutive pole positions from Le Mans in May through Qatar in November. Maverick Viñales ended the streak taking pole position for the Valencia finally, but even then Viñales didn't start first in the grand prix due to a three-spot penalty for not respecting the black flag with orange circle during the warm-up session, meaning Francesco Bagnaia inherited the top spot.
Viñales still got credit for the Valencia pole position, not that it matter as this prediction was shot in Austria in July.
3. The Ducati Desmosedici GP22 will have at least four podium finishes
Correct!
This might have been setting the bar low, but we weren't sure how good the Desmosedici GP23 would be. Ducati was stellar whether it was the new bike or the year-old bike.
The Desmosedici GP22 was on the podium in the opening race with Marco Bezzecchi. In the next round, Bezzecchi won and Álex Márquez was third. Luca Marini was then third in Austin and this prediction was fulfilled in the third round.
The Desmosedici GP22 ended up with 13 podium finishes this season. Along with Bezzecchi's victory in Argentina, he won at Le Mans and in India. Fabio Di Giannantonio made it four victories for the GP22 in Qatar.
4. There will be at least seven occasions where the sprint race winner wins the grand prix
Correct!
Eight times the sprint race winner won the grand prix.
Jorge Martín won both races on four occasions: Germany, Misano, Japan and Thailand.
Francesco Bagnaia was responsible for three of those, Portugal, Italy and Austria.
The only other rider to do it was Aleix Espargaró in Barcelona.
5. Pedro Acosta will be one of the top two Spaniards in the Moto2 championship
Correct!
Not only was Acosta one of the top two Spaniards in Moto2, he was the top ride in Moto2, as Acosta won the championship. The man from Mazarrón won seven races, stood on the podium 14 times and he scored points in 19 of 20 races. The exception was the French Grand Prix.
Acosta won the title by 83 points over Tony Arbolino. He was 120.5 points clear of Fermín Aldeguer in third, the second best Spaniard in Moto2 this season. Jake Dixon was fourth on 204 points, 128.5 points off Acosta. Spaniard Arón Canet rounded the top five, 137.5 points behind Acosta.
6. There will be South American winners in multiple classes
Correct!
The one that was not a surprise was Brazilian Eric Granado winning the fourth race of the MotoE season at Mugello. Granado has now won a race in five consecutive MotoE season.
The next South American victory would be Colombia's David Alonso winning at Silverstone in Moto3. It was the first of four victories for Alonso this season as he won consecutive races at Barcelona and Misano and then won in Thailand.
However, Granado wasn't the only Brazilian winner this year as Diogo Moreira won the Moto3 race in Indonesia.
Six South American victories this season across the four world championship classes.
World Superbike/World Supersport
7. Dominique Aegerter will have at least one accident riding in a top three position where he takes down another rider with him
Wrong!
This prediction was always going to be one tougher to track. Aegerter had a rather clean debut season in World Superbike, but he didn't really spend much time at the front. When going oer the lap chart for each round, it became apparent how his season went.
Obviously, for this prediction to be correct, Aegerter would have had to be in a top three position. Well, he didn't spend a lap in the top three until the SuperPole race from Jerez, the penultimate race of the season. Along with spending all eight laps in the top three of the SuperPole race, he spent 12 of 20 laps in the top three of the final race of the season in Jerez.
With 20 total laps in the top three, Aegerter didn't have one incident during that psan and therefore did not take down another rider with him. Prediction incorrect.
8. There will be a minimum of two first-time WSBK winners
Wrong!
There were no first-time World Superbike winners this season.
Álvaro Bautista won 27 of 36 races this season. Toprak Razgatlioglu won seven times. Jonathan Rea won once and Michael Ruben Rinaldi won for the first time in about two years.
However, no first-time winners.
Danilio Petrucci didn't win, the closest he came was second at Most. Andrea Locatelli is still looking for his first career victory and Locatelli was second in the Indonesia SuperPole race. Axel Bassani was even runner-up in a race at Imola. Dominique Aegerter was runner-up in the final SuperPole race of the season in Jerez.
Four riders with no World Superbike victories ended up runner-up this season. So close and yet so far.
9. There will be at least four races where two of Álvaro Bautista, Toprak Razgatlioglu and Jonathan Rea are not on the podium and at least one of those is a SuperPole race
Wrong!
We were on a great track early in the season.
In the second race from Phillip Island, the third race of the season, Bautista won with Rinaldi and Locatelli on the podium. That was one.
In the Indonesia SuperPole race, race five of the season, Razgatlioglu won ahead of Locatelli and Alex Lowes was third.
We were halfway to fulfilling this prediction through five of 36 races.
Over the final 31 races, two of Bautista, Razgatlioglu and Rea were on the podium each time. In 25 of the final 31 races, Bautista and Razgatlioglu were on the podium. It was Bautista who was the one missing in four of the other six races.
10. There will be six weekend sweeps or fewer in World Supersport
Wrong!
This one is a little crushing.
Entering the final round at Jerez, there had been six sweeps.
Nicolò Bulega had swept the round at Phillip Island, Assen, Donington Park, Magny-Cours and Aragón.
Stefano Manzi swept the Imola round.
What happens in the finale? Bulega swept the final two races. Yep. Of course.
If you go back to the first weekend of the season, this could have been avoided. Bulega passed Manzi on the final lap in the second race from Phillip Island. Manzi holds on and then the final weekend is moot.
Supercross/Motocross
11. The Supercross season opener winner will have multiple victories in 2023
Correct!
Eli Tomac pulled off an impressive comeback ride in the Anaheim season opener after he fell but overcame an eight-second deficit to win the season opener. After four consecutive seasons where the Supercross season opener winner did not win again, Tomac put this prediction to bed in the second round, winning in San Diego, fulfilling this prediction as quickly as possible.
For good measure, Tomac won seven races this season.
12. The SuperMotocross champion will have an average championship finish greater than 2.5 between Supercross and Motocross
Wrong!
What I didn't see coming was the 450cc SuperMotocross champion being the 250cc West Supercross champion. Jett Lawrence moved into the 450cc class for the 2023 Motocross season, where he went 24-for-24, winning every race and taking that championship. I wasn't considering that possible outcome, but I am not going to claim this on a technicality.
Lawrence was first his Supercross championship and first in his Motocross championship. He won the SuperMotocross championship by winning two of the final three rounds
Ok... five-for-12. Not great. A few tough ones to swallow. It happens. Some years, the tough ones go in your favor. Some years, they do not.
