Monday, January 15, 2024

Musings From the Weekend: An Uphill Battle For The Little Guys

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

And now we wait on Dale Coyne Racing to announce its IndyCar lineup. Some drivers went to dinner. Some drivers did not. Patricio O'Ward spoke up. There will be one fewer Porsche in the 24 Hours of Daytona. There will be one more Toyota and three more NASCAR drivers competing in the Michelin Pilot Challenge season opener. Guenther Steiner was fired and Gene Haas is tired of being humiliated. Kyle Larson did show up at the Chili Bowl, but he didn't make it pass his preliminary night as Logan Seavey won for the second consecutive year. Mahindra's Formula E started the season being stupid. The Dakar Rally had a marathon stage, and a rest day. However, it is a series that will not be competing, and one that might be, that are on my mind.

An Uphill Battle For The Little Guys
Last week ended with the stunning news that the Superstars Racing Experience would be postponing its upcoming season, though five of six races had been announced for the fourth year of SRX competition. In the press release, SRX stated the reason for the decision as "market factors that have proven to be too much to overcome." 

SRX has not closed its doors entirely. The 2024 season has only been postponed, and the series did state it was actively exploring strategic options for its long-term potential. 

The uphill battles for SRX had been well-known. Any startup faces a wealth of problems right off the bat. They might have enough momentum to get off the ground, but that hard part is staying in the air. It was almost a running gag each week about how tight the series was on spare parts and replacements. An abundance of accidents in one race strained the series and risked the level of competition at succeeding weeks. 

Though there were those concerns, SRX did complete three full seasons, each consisting of six races, without any significant shortage leading to a decrease in quality on the racetrack. At no point did the series scale back from the usual 12 drivers starting down to nine or ten because it did not have enough cars ready for the following week. 

It was a series run under a tight budget, but it was still able to make the races happen at short tracks across the country, and attract quality guest drivers in the process. Not only did it put on races, but it drew viewers as well. In its first two seasons on CBS, it was averaging around a million viewers each Saturday night, nothing staggering, but respectable compared to IndyCar and even Formula One in the United States, and better than IMSA. The move to ESPN and Thursday nights was always going to see a decline, switching from network to cable, but it had its own time on its own date. It revived "Thursday Night Thunder," and everyone bought into the nostalgia. 

It might have been only 12 cars and six weekends, but it costs pretty penny to organize any motorsports series. It still requires sponsorship dollars and television dollars, and a lot of them. For all that SRX had going in its favor, it had plenty of hangups. 

For all the pomp of an all-star series, the series never said why it mattered. While there were always seven or eight full-time drivers, the attention was always on the drivers dropping in for a night or two. Nothing wrong with that, until it was time for the finale. What did these six races mean? Why did they matter? Why should we care? Every year, the championship, the crescendo, fell on deaf ears. The champion was mostly forgotten, even though he had been around for all six weeks. 

Year four could have been the chance to show people why to stick with the championship, give it meaning from beginning to end. We will never know. 

Oh, there is a chance SRX returns, but the 21st century is not meant for a series like that. 

Heck, even Robby Gordon's Stadium Super Truck series has gone mostly dormant though it is widely praised for its action. Stadium Super Trucks ran only two events in 2023, supporting the Grand Prix of Long Beach and the IndyCar race from Nashville.

You may have hope, because in the days prior to SRX's announcement, it became public that Ray Evernham and Rob Kauffman had purchased the brand rights to IROC, the International Race of Championship, which contested 30 seasons from 1974 to 2006. Evernham said the plan is to run a vintage type race sometime in 2024. 

You should be easy with that hope because in all likelihood we will not see IROC as we knew it from the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. This isn't going to be a four-race championship run in companion with NASCAR and IndyCar weekends. What Evernham has done is bought control; the ability to promote vintage IROC races at historic race weekends while also able to cash in on printing vintage t-shirts for the attendees. A new series, an IROC revival, is not going to be what you expect. For starters, Evernham doesn’t even have any cars, which are kind of important to an automobile racing series. 

There is too much competition and not enough money for an all-star series to work in the 21st century. 

It is what killed the original IROC the first time. When Crown Royal went away, the series went away. There were better options out there to sell products. Four weekends is nothing when spending millions of dollars. Exposure was limited, and could easily be missed when races are spread over many weeks. In the final years of IROC, it was many months. There was no desire to be apart of that when the same company could spend just as much and be on a NASCAR Cup race 12 times a year or sponsor a full-time sports car program. It also made it more difficult to attract drivers. 

With Crown Royal plastered all over the vehicles, drivers with the other alcoholic beverage sponsors were not going to participate. The same conflict of interest exists today. It is difficult to sell as a race of champions if champions cannot compete due to sponsorship. 

SRX had the right model. It had a fairly neutral title sponsor in Camping World, a company that had already sponsored a major series for over a decade, but instead of having every car donning Camping World on the hood and side, SRX allowed other companies to sponsor guest drivers.

Denny Hamlin could race SRX with FedEx on his car. Chase Elliott could compete with Napa Auto Parts. Ryan Blaney had BodyArmor blazed across his hood. Flexibility is key for participation at this time. 

It is hard to call SRX a failure though it is taking a pause. It filled short tracks across the country and generated a genuine buzz everywhere it went. It did gather a following each summer, and we were excited for what 2024 had in store. What might be SRX's downfall is the lack of a visionary in charge.

Evernham was a founding member of SRX and a crucial member through its building year in 2020, and its first season in 2021. Once he left, Tony Stewart was the undisputed face of the series, another founding member and competitor at that. However, Stewart has many projects, from a NASCAR Cup team, to a sprint car series and team, to a foray into drag racing that will be expanding to more in 2024. 

All apologies to Don Hawk, who did a good job running SRX as CEO, but SRX needed someone who lived and breathed the series. The series got the nickname "Tony Stewart and friends" for a reason. It needed a face who was going to make sure SRX was going to see 2024. 

Considering the lack of IROC for nearly two decades, an all-star series has a place in 2024. A generation of fans don't know what it is like to have IndyCar drivers flying to Michigan or Darlington or NASCAR drivers flying to Cleveland or Mid-Ohio during the middle of a busy race weekend to compete in something else. We have become quite stale with little variation to look forward to each year. An SRX or IROC at least mixed it up and provided something different. 

But for any SRX, IROC or whatever to exist requires buy-in. There is nothing stopping NASCAR and IndyCar from supporting an all-star series that brings its best together. A television partner stepping up would help. A manufacturer getting involved would be even better. But that is not in the cards, and the little guys remain at the bottom of the hill.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Logan Seavey, but did you know...

Pascal Wehrlein won the Mexico City ePrix.

Chase Sexton won the Supercross race from San Francisco. Jordon Smith won in the 250cc West class.

Dakar Rally Update (through stage seven):

Cars: Carlos Sainz leads in his Audi by exactly 19 minutes over Sébastien Loeb with Lucas Moraes an hour and 35 seconds back in third.

Bikes: Ricky Brabec holds a one-second lead over Ross Branch. José Ignacio Cornejo is third, six minutes and 48 seconds back. Adrien Van Beveren is 14 minutes and 39 seconds behind and Kevin Benavides rounds out the top five, 24 minutes and 39 seconds off Brabec.

Quads: Manuel Andújar has a six-minute and 20-second lead over Alexandre Giroud. There is over two hours and 27 minutes between Andújar and Juraj Varga in third.

T3: Mitch Guthrie leads Cristian Gutiérrez by 33 minutes and 36 seconds. Francesco López is 40 minutes and 16 seconds back in third with Austin Jones just over an hour and 16 minutes back in fourth. 

SSV: Xavier de Soultrait has a seven-minute and 30-second lead over Yasir Seaidan with Sara Price seven minutes and 38 seconds back. João Ferreira is 11 minutes and 24 seconds back in fourth. Jérôme de Sadeleer rounds out the top five, 22 minutes and 43 seconds off de Soultrait.

Trucks: Martin Macík has an hour and 36-minute advantage over Aleš Loprais.

Coming Up This Weekend
The conclusion of the Dakar Rally as seven stages remain.
Round three for Supercross in San Diego.


Friday, January 12, 2024

2024 IndyCar Team Preview: Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing

We are down to 58 days until the IndyCar season opener from St. Petersburg. We turn our attention in the build up to the season toward Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. This organization really saw it all in 2023. The agony of failing to qualify for the Indianapolis 500 and uncompetitiveness at multiple races to the thrill of victory and competing at the top with multiple pole positions. The team had a driver solidly in the championship top ten and it fired a driver before the season concluded. In 2024, RLLR definitely hopes to repeat the good while eliminating all that was unpleasant the year before.

At First Glance... It is hard to envision great improvement
That is not to say RLLR will not improve in 2024, but it is unlikely the team will be in that upper echelon.

Until we see RLLR competitive on ovals, we cannot believe it has erased that deficit and can possibly contend for a championship. There isn't anything the team could do in the offseason that could really tell us it has solved the problem. It will take more than a magic bullet. No one hire or change will alater our perception after last season. RLLR is close, but so far. 

For all the issues RLLR had last year, the team was able to fight for victories, and did win. The team could produce the speed, just not on a consistent enough basis. It did something Arrow McLaren did not do in 2023, and that is win. RLLR should have won more than it did in 2023. The team likely should have had two victories, which would have been even with Andretti Autosport. 

In the changing makeup of IndyCar, RLLR is somewhere leading the middle and butting up on the top level. It has the pieces. Christian Lundgaard performed better than the car he had under him. For all the struggles the organization had, it didn't stop Lundgaard from spending 11 of 17 races inside the championship top ten and finishing eighth. Graham Rahal had his worst season since 2014, but he still has finished in the championship top ten in seven of the last nine seasons.

As a three-car team, RLLR is still looking to get that third piece to click. Two seasons with Jack Harvey did not produce the desired results. Enter Pietro Fittipaldi, a driver who turned a few heads in his first IndyCar foray, but that is going on six years ago. It has been three years since Fittipaldi's second IndyCar stint. He hasn't raced an open-wheel car on a road course since the 2020 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, substituting for a burned Romain Grosjean. 

The team can improve from its 2023, but improvement could be its drivers finishing eighth, 11th and 15th in the championship with two victories for the team and the three drivers combining for four top ten finishes on ovals with a car advancing to the second round of qualifying for the Indianapolis 500 and the other two cars starting in the top twenty. That would be an improvement, but would not change RLLR's standing in the greater hierarchy of IndyCar.

However, if RLLR does figure out its problems on ovals, the championship top five is not out of the question, especially with Lundgaard's results. It could even sneak into the title conversation if everything goes right. I don't think we will see that in 2024, but it is not impossible.

2023 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Review
Wins: 1 (Toronto)
Poles: 3 (Both IMS road course races and Portland)
Championship Finishes: 8th (Christian Lundgaard), 15th (Graham Rahal), 24th (Jack Harvey), 33rd (Jüri Vips)

Graham Rahal - #15 United Rentals/Hendrickson Honda
Numbers to Remember:
22.8: Average finish on ovals in 2023.

13.4: Average finish on street courses in 2023.

12.285: Average finish on road courses in 2023.

What does a championship season look like for him?
The start of the season is nearly opposite from 2023. 

Keep the sixth at St. Petersburg, but the woes of finishing no better than tenth in a seven-race stretch are replaced with six top ten finishes in the seven races following the opener. That includes the comeback story of the year, qualifying on the front row for the Indianapolis 500 and taking an emotional victory that fills the team with the belief it can achieve something greater in 2024.

With seven top ten finishes in the first eight races, Rahal takes the championship lead with a victory in the ninth race of the season from Mid-Ohio, and the championship push is in full effect. With a major test in Iowa following, Rahal pulls out a top five and another top ten finish to clear the first hurdle, but with three oval races remaining in the final six races. 

The end of the season will be tense as all eyes and expectations will be on the fairy tale ending with a slide on the ovals. Rahal doesn't overdrive the car at Gateway nor Milwaukee, points racing but limiting the loss as title rivals claw back some points. He enters the Nashville season finale with a scant championship lead, but the team executes despite pressure throughout the weekend and relief settles over Rahal and the entire organization.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
Better than 2023. 

When Rahal was on it, he had respectable days. When he was off, he just couldn't go forward like he had accomplished in previous seasons. He should do better than seven finishes of 20th or worse. 

It will be difficult to reclaim the spot as the best RLLR driver. Rahal will be competing for second best in the organization, but the speed should be there for Rahal to put make it two RLLR drivers in the top ten of the championship.

We are approaching seven years since Rahal's most recent victory. During that timespan, Rahal should probably have three or four victories. He likely should have won once in 2023. Life is a number's game, and if it is a number's game, Rahal should have one race go his way and end in victory sooner rather than later. RLLR has the cars to put him in that position. 

A few more top five finishes and finishing in the top ten in half the races is achievable. Doing that should take him further up the championship order and possibly in the top ten. 

Pietro Fittipaldi - #30 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Honda
Numbers to Remember:
19.5: Average finish in six career oval starts in IndyCar.

0: Street course starts in IndyCar.

16: Average finish in three career road course starts in IndyCar.

What does a championship season look like for him?
Absolutely stunning everyone in IndyCar. 

Fittipaldi takes the spot as top RLLR driver from the jump, but if he does that it also means Lundgaard is close. We see races where Fittipaldi is sixth and Lundgaard is seventh. Fittipaldi is third and Lundgaard is sixth. Both drivers are excelling, but Fittipaldi keeps getting the edge. 

The first victory feels inevitable and it comes quickly, before the Indianapolis 500. Everyone is impressed and are wondering if Fittipaldi can keep it up, but most believe he will come down to earth shortly. It looks like that is the case at the Indianapolis 500. It isn't a bad day, but it is the first race where he isn't being mentioned at a frequent basis. His final result is outside the top ten, but he avoids trouble and completes all the laps. 

Just when it appears Fittipaldi is forgotten, he wins at Detroit and regains all of our attention. As the summer begins, he keeps finishing at the front and maintaining a championship lead. As we get into the oval-heavy second-half of the season, everyone will be expecting this is where Fittipaldi will falter and see someone else climb into the top spot. 

This is where a Fittipaldi championship season looks identical to a Graham Rahal championship season. Fittipaldi manages to get results and limit the damage on ovals, but it means he hold a slim championship lead or be a few points off the top spot entering the finale. Nashville will require Fittipaldi beating his rivals and having a complete weekend to take what was unthinkable at the start of the season.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
Top fifteen in the championship should be the goal. It isn't great, but it is better than where the #30 Honda has run over the previous two seasons. It means there are strong days where he could be contending for top five finishes, but it also accounts for races where the speed isn't quite there and Fittipaldi isn't a threat. There will be a few of those days in 2024. 

Fittipaldi is neither a rookie nor new to IndyCar, but for all intended purposes he is inexperienced. There are tracks that will be quizzical to him. Street courses are where he will likely have some teething problems. If he gets a handle on them quickly, he could be fighting for top ten finishes, but those are not guarantees. 

If everything clicks early for Fittipaldi, he could be second in the RLLR team order, and that could see him be a surprise top ten championship driver. 

Christian Lundgaard - #45 Hy-Vee Honda
Numbers to Remember:
17.6: Average finish on ovals in 2023.

9.8: Average finish on street courses in 2023.

6: Average finish on road courses in 2023.

What does a championship season look like for him?
Honestly, doing everything he did right in 2023 and then ovals seeing a massive improvement. 

Lundgaard has most of the pieces of a championship driver. It will require more top five finishes, and those come early. St. Petersburg and Long Beach are favorable results for him. That sixth-place average finish on road courses continues into 2024, and he is in the top ten at Barber Motorsports Park and he wins the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. 

Off the back of those results, he has his best Indianapolis 500 finish, which is ninth and it is a rather unremarkable ninth-place finish. He spends most of the race in the middle of the field, but the team doesn't make mistakes in the closing stages and Lundgaard has confidence in the car over the closing miles, allowing him to sneak into the top ten.  

With Indianapolis behind him, he makes a statement with a victory in Detroit with top five finishes following at Road America and Laguna Seca, and his has everyone wondering if Lundgaard's championship hopes are valid. He claims the home victory for RLLR at Mid-Ohio, which is crucial with Iowa, Gateway and Milwaukee ahead of him. 

The ovals are a little harsher for Lundgaard. He cannot crack the top ten at Iowa, but he is on the podium in Toronto. He isn't in the top ten at Gateway, but he is on the podium at Portland. He has finishes of ninth and tenth at Milwaukee, but he claws for those results. The championship lead is not his entering the finale, but he is close. Lundgaard is within a dozen points entering the finale, where he has a dream weekend. Pole position, most laps led, victory and he snags the title by an eyelash.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
Considering his road and street course results in 2023, if Lundgaard were to repeat that form in 2024, any marginal improvement on ovals could lift him into the top five of the championship. 

He was 89 points outside the top five in the championship in 2023. His average points per oval race was 12.4. If he could somehow average an eighth-place finish on ovals, which pays 24 points per race, that is nearly 60 more points to his points total. If he does that and avoid some of the off days that he had on road and street courses, the top five in the championship is practical. 

Last year's victory at Toronto wasn't a fluke. RLLR has proven it can compete for victories on a yearly basis. The problem is the team rarely wins multiple times in a season. It isn't inconceivable that Lundgaard could break that trend. Ovals will still be a rough spot for him and the team, but he should remain in the top ten of the championship. Repeating 2023 and finishing eighth in the championship would not be results to be ashamed about. 

The first round of the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series season will be the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg on March 10. Coverage will begin at noon on NBC and Peacock.



Wednesday, January 10, 2024

2024 Formula E Season Preview

History is upon us as in less than a week, Formula E will commence its tenth season of competition. After 116 races, Formula E is still around and it is about to start another season where it will visit ten countries on four different continents. Twenty-two drivers competing for 11 teams with seven different powertrains are set for this campaign. A few drivers have been in the series since the first race in Beijing. Others have been around for quite some time. Some are new and others are just starting their Formula E careers.

Seven drivers won a race last year and there are 15 past winners on the grid. A past champion is returning, making it seven of the eight Formula E champions contracted for this season. There have been five different champions in the last five Formula E seasons.

Schedule
The 2024 calendar will again be 16 races, but this time over ten rounds, as there are six doubleheader weekends scheduled, including four consecutive to end the season.

The opening round is a single-day affair. Mexico City remains the season opener and will take place on January 13. Jake Dennis used victory in last year's Mexico City season opener to springboard his championship run, and there have been six different winners in seven Mexico City races. 

Two weeks later will be the first doubleheader of the season, from Riyadh on January 26-27. This is the fifth consecutive time the Saudi Arabian city hosts a Formula E doubleheader. Pascal Wehrlein swept the races last year, and Wehrlein, Sam Bird and Nyck de Vries have combined to win two-thirds of the nine Riyadh races run since its 2018 debut.

There will be a six-week break between Riyadh and the fourth race of the season, São Paulo on March 16. In last year's debut event, Mitch Evans won on the Sambadrome ahead of fellow New Zealander Nick Cassidy by 0.284 seconds with Sam Bird in third, 0.507 seconds back as Jaguar powertrains swept the podium. 

After São Paulo will be a pair of new rounds. On March 30, Formula E makes its first trip to Tokyo. The 1.604-mile circuit will take place around Tokyo Big Sight, the exhibition center located on Tokyo Bay, and the circuit will include 18 turns. Two weeks after Tokyo, Formula E will race at Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli, the home of MotoGP's San Marino and Rimini Riviera Grand Prix, on April 13-14. The Misano circuit layout still remains to be confirmed.

Monaco marks the halfway point of the season on April 27. This will be the fourth year Formula E has used the full Monaco Grand Prix circuit. Nick Cassidy won last year's race ahead of Evans and Dennis.

After Monaco will begin the stretch of four consecutive doubleheaders to close the season. The traditional Berlin Tempelhof Airport round will be on May 11-12. This will be the ninth time the Tempelhof Airport has hosted Formula E, and it will be the sixth time the round has at least been a doubleheader. There have been 11 different winners in the last 11 races from Berlin. In 18 Berlin races, the most victories for a driver is two, a record Sébastien Buemi, Lucas di Grassi and António Félix da Costa share. Buemi won the only Berlin round held on the Karl-Marx-Allee Circuit in 2016.

Formula E returns to China for the first time since Sanya in 2019 with a doubleheader at the Shanghai International Circuit on May 25-26. The circuit configuration has yet to be confirmed. 

After a month break, Formula E will return to Portland over June 29-30. Last year's Portland race had a record 403 passes. Cassidy won from tenth on the grid ahead of Dennis while da Costa rounded out the podium. The top ten finishers were covered by 4.3 seconds. 

For the second consecutive season, and fourth time overall, London hosts the Formula E season finale, a doubleheader taking place over July 20-21. The only repeat winner in six races on the ExCel London circuit is Jake Dennis. 

Teams:
Andretti Global
Jake Dennis: #1 Porsche 99X Electric
What did he do last season: Dennis won the championship with two race victories, 11 podium finishes and 12 top five finishes in 14 races. He started on pole position twice and he scored a total of 229 points.

What to expect in this season: A slight return to Earth after how Dennis won the championship last season. The Briton was methodical to take the 2023 championship, but that form will be difficult to duplicate for a second consecutive year. It does not help that in the Valencia test in October the Porsche powertrain cars were off from the top times. It was not a massive gap, and the Valencia test was over two months before the first round of the season, but Andretti was not the hands down best team last year. Porsche was good, but not the clear favorite. It should be a good year, a fight for the championship top five, but a drop from the top.

Norman Nato: #17 Porsche 99X Electric
What did he do last season: Driving for Nissan, Nato ended up tenth in the championship on 63 points. After having only two finishes in the points in the first ten races with his best result being seventh, Nato ended with six consecutive points finishes, including a runner-up finish in the second Rome race and he had three top five finishes.

What to expect in this season: Nato made great strides in 2023 with a Nissan program that is still trying to find its footing. He should continue to make progress this season, but he will find it hard to top his teammate Dennis. On the right day, victory is possible, but it will not be expected. Nato should have more frequent days in the points and be comfortably in the championship top ten. 

Envision Racing
Robin Frijns: #4 Jaguar I-Type 6
What did he do last season: At ABT CUPRA, Frijns fractured his wrist in the first race at Mexico City and missed the next four races. He scored points in only two races, a ninth in the first Jakarta race and a tenth in Portland after Sam Bird was issued a five-second penalty. He did win pole position for the second Berlin race, giving him six points on the season, 22nd in the championship and the final driver with points.

What to expect in this season: Frijns should be more competitive than he was last season at ABT CUPRA. The Jaguar powertrain is undoubtedly one of the best if not THE best powertrain on the Formula E grid, something Frijns has not experienced for some time in his Formula E career. In 2018-19, while with Envision Virgin Racing, Frijns was fourth in the championship with an Audi powertrain. A spat of poor results canceled out a pair of victories and a host of top five finishes, leaving him fifth in the championship. Victory is not out of the question, but between his teammate and the factory Jaguar team, it will be a daunting task to come out on top. 

Sébastien Buemi: #16 Jaguar I-Type 6
What did he do last season: Buemi scored points in 12 of 16 races, but he only stood on the podium once, a third in the penultimate race of the season in London. The Swiss driver had six top five finishes and two pole positions. His 105 points placed him sixth in the championship, more than double the 50 combined points he had from the previous two seasons.

What to expect in this season: Last season showed Buemi had not lost it. His FIA World Endurance Championship results are enough to tell us that, but he was lurking last year in many races. It has been nearly four and a half years since the joint all-time leader in Formula E victories has won a race. The car is there for Buemi to retake the top spot all on his own. Is it enough for him to return to championship form? It isn't out of the question, but it will require being flawless considering the camp he is in.

Jaguar TCS Racing
Mitch Evans: #9 Jaguar I-Type 6
What did he do last season: Ending up tied for most victories in the 2023 season with four, Evans was third in the championship on 197 points as he had nine top five finishes in the final 11 races after having not finished better than seventh in the first five races of the season. He did retire from three races, including at the unfortunate time of the antepenultimate race in Rome.

What to expect in this season: One of the four Jaguar-powered cars should win the championship. The factory team might be the best driver pairing we have ever seen in Formula E. Evans has ten Formula E victories. Last season, he did everything right to win a championship. The speed is there and Evans is a capable driver. The goal will be to get that last bit to claim the trophy. He has what it takes, but stiff competition from within as well.

Nick Cassidy: #37 Jaguar I-Type 6
What did he do last season: Ending up tied for most victories in the 2023 season with four, Cassidy was second in the championship on 199 points driving for Envision Racing. Cassidy had eight podium finishes. His only retirement was at the unfortunate time of the penultimate race in London.

What to expect in this season: Between Evans and Cassidy, the Jaguar team has a combined 15 Formula E victories. Cassidy and Evans will be each other's big hurdles this season. If they both trip over one another it will allow someone else through. These drivers were near-identical in 2023. They should be near-identical again in 2024. The hope for Jaguar is they are the two battling for the championship and have left the field in the dust, difficult to do but not improbable. 

TAG Heuer Porsche Formula E Team
António Félix da Costa: #13 Porsche 99X Electric
What did he do last season: While he won the Cape Town round, da Costa had three podium finishes all season, and he failed to score a point in the final four races and he did not finish in the points in half of the 16 races in 2023. Da Costa was ninth in the championship on 93 points.

What to expect in this season: With da Costa focused on Formula E and not competing in any sports car championship regularly, he should be leading the Porsche contingent. Last year was a disappointment for the factory Porsche effort as a customer car won the championship despite the factory's fast start. I do not expect the same kind of struggles and da Costa to piece together a complete season while making a title push.

Pascal Wehrlein: #94 Porsche 99X Electric
What did he do last season: Opened the season like gangbusters with a second, first, first and fourth, but despite regularly scoring points, he scored in 15 of 16 races, Wehrlein was fourth in the championship on 149 points. The German had one top five finish in the final nine races of the season, a victory at Jakarta. 

What to expect in this season: Somehow Wehrlein could have equal results to his 2023 season, feel better about how he runs but finish worse in the championship. His 2023 results are so funky they could not be repeated no matter how hard one tries. That lack of oomph in the final 75% of the season is a concern, and if he starts any worse than he did in 2023, he will not come close to finishing fourth in the championship. The championship top ten is still rather practical, but considering Wehrlein's past track record, he isn't going to be clutching silverware come the summertime.

DS Penske
Stoffel Vandoorne: #2 DS E-TENSE FE23
What did he do last season: A year after winning the Formula E championship, Vandoorne did not even get on the podium let alone win a race in 2023, as the Belgian had two top five finishes all season. He failed to finish in the points six times and dropped to 11th in the championship on 56 points.

What to expect in this season: Neither DS Penske car was in the top ten of the Valencia test, which is a little concerning. Again, much time has past from the test to the eve of the season opener. DS did have a drive in the top five mix last season, however, I do not senses this team is trending upward at the same rate as others. Vandoorne could get on the podium once or twice but see fewer points finishes in total.

Jean-Éric Vergne: #25 DS E-TENSE FE23
What did he do last season: After nearly two years without a victory, Vergne won in Hyderabad, but he finished outside the point in seven of 16 races. Somehow his lack of points finishes and only three total podium finishes still earned Vergne fifth in the championship on 107 points.

What to expect in this season: Vergne was good last season, but this could be a year for a step back considering the pace of the Jaguar and Porsche cars. There were also a number of other teams that appeared to make up ground. Vergne should still remain competitive, he has finished in the championship top five in six of the past 11 seasons, but a slight slide backward would not be surprising.

Maserati MSG Racing
Maximilian Günther: #7 Maserati Tipo Folgore
What did he do last season: Günther failed to score points in the first six races of the season. He ended up with four point finishes, including a victory in the second Jakarta race, and finished seventh in the championship on 101 points.

What to expect in this season: Günther does bounce all over the place when it comes to the Formula E standing. His late flourish earned him seventh in the championship but that was after going 16th and 19th in the previous two seasons. Before that, he was ninth but his only three points finishes were two victories and a second. I don't buy the speed. He can have a few good days, but not a great season. We will hear his name but for good and bad reasons. 

Jehan Daruvala: #18 Maserati Tipo Folgore
What did he do last season: Daruvala spent his fourth season in Formula Two. Unfortunately, his Formula Two career came full circle. After finishing 12th as a rookie in 2020 with consecutive seasons in seventh after that, Daruvala was 12th again in 2023, but this time, he scored 13 points fewer than in 2020 and did not win a race after winning four over his first three seasons in the series.

What to expect in this season: Rookies do not splash into Formula E and make great waves. The championship sees experienced drivers in this discipline regularly run the front as others need two or three years to really get into the mix. Daruvala will follow the same path at best. He could end up on the podium, but there will be days he is not in the mix because this is a new experience for him. 

Nissan Formula E Team
Oliver Rowland: #22 Nissan e-4ORCE 04
What did he do last season: Rowland's best finish of the season was sixth at Hyderabad, but he left Mahindra after nine races last season. His only other points finish was tenth in the first Berlin round. 

What to expect in this season: Outside of the 2019-20 season, Rowland does not have an outstanding  Formula E track record. He is more known for having two or three brilliant day and then not much else during a season. After a two-year dip, Nissan did better in 2023, but has a ways to go to get back to where the team once was when branded as Renault. Rowland's season will look like many that he has had before.

Sacha Fenestraz: #23 Nissan e-4ORCE 04
What did he do last season: With only four finishes in the points and a pole position at Cape Town, Fenestraz was 16th in the championship on 32 points. He was fourth at Monaco and in the second Jakarta race. 

What to expect in this season: Competition has remained high in the Nissan camp for Fenestraz as Rowland returns. While Rowland was tenth in the Valencia test, Fenestraz was 20th. I think these two drivers could be close to equal, but get to the same total two different ways. Fenestraz could end up finishing in the points more but Rowland has more big points days. It will be a fight for either to crack the championship top ten.

NEOM McLaren Formula E Team
Jake Hughes: #5 Nissan e-4ORCE 04
What did he do last season: After starting the season with three top five finishes, seven top ten finishes and two pole positions in the first ten races of the 2023 season, Hughes closed with only one top ten finish in the final six races, a tenth in the penultimate race from London. Combined with fastest lap in that London race, Hughes scored two points in the final six races, leaving him 12th on 48 points.

What to expect in this season: McLaren's Formula E effort almost had a reverse of McLaren's Formula One effort in 2023. Instead of struggles early and scoring late, McLaren's maiden year in Formula E saw it score early and suffer through the back half of the season. Hughes was just behind Rowland for tenth in the test, placing the top two Nissan-powered cars next to one another. McLaren should have a more settled season compared to last year, but that likely means it will solidly be in the middle.

Sam Bird: #8 Nissan e-4ORCE 04
What did he do last season: After no podium positions in 2022, Bird was on the podium four times with Jaguar in 2023. Bird nearly doubled his points total, going from 51 points to 95 points, placing the Briton eighth in the championship. He did miss two races, which likely cost him a few points. Though things were better, Bird did go winless for a second consecutive season.

What to expect in this season: The McLarens were close in testing. Bird was three spots behind Hughes in testing. Bird should get the better of Hughes. There could be a few days Bird gets more out of the car and might end up on the podium, it could result in a surprise victory, but McLaren should be right around where it was last year.

ERT Formula E Team
Sérgio Sette Câmara: #3 ERT X24
What did he do last season: Câmara was fifth in the Hyderabad race, but his only other finish in the points was eighth in the first Rome race. He was disqualified from a fifth-place finish in the first London race after not following instructions from the officials. The Brazilian was 20th on 14 points.

What to expect in this season: Though NIO has left and the team has a new name and investors, and this organization is coming off its best season in five seasons, do not expect another leap forward. ERT had the slowest two times in testing. Sure, Câmara could have another two or three brilliant results and it could gift him 16th in the championship, but that is his best hope. Points will not be a regular thing.

Dan Ticktum: #33 ERT X24
What did he do last season: Though he never finished better than sixth, Ticktum did score points seven races and ended up 17th in the championship on 27 points. It was the most points for a NIO driver since Oliver Turvey scored 45 points in 2017-18.

What to expect in this season: Similar to Câmara. Ticktum could steal a fifth on a fortunate day, but he will not be finishing in the point nine times in 2024. It would be a great season if either driver broke 15 points. It isn't impossible, but if they get there, it will still mean likely finishing outside the top fifteen in the championship.

Mahindra Racing
Nyck de Vries: #21 Mahindra M9Electro
What did he do last season: The 2021 Formula E champion started with AlphaTauri in Formula One after he finished ninth on his Formula One debut in the 2022 Italian Grand Prix substituting for an appendix-less Alexander Albon. De Vries struggled with AlphaTauri, removed from the car after ten races where his best finish was 12th at Monaco. 

What to expect in this season: After a taste of Formula One, de Vries is back in Formula E and he is not with a powerhouse. Mahindra has been stuck at the bottom for the last four years. Testing was inconclusive. Three of the four Mahindra-powered cars were 17th, 18th and 19th in testing. De Vries was 18th. Mahindra has been on the podium in each of the last three seasons, but those are more flukes than form. De Vries isn't going to be picking up where he left off in 2022. Points will be tough to come by.

Edoardo Mortara: #48 Mahindra M9Electro
What did he do last season: At Maserati, Mortara retired from five of the first eight races with finishes of ninth, tenth and ninth sprinkled in. He had three more retirements over the final eight races. A pair of top five finishes in the final three races did lift Mortara to 39 points and 14th in the championship.

What to expect in this season: While three Mahindras were nowhere to be seen, Mortara was sixth in testing. Yet, Mortara has a way of teasing us. He was 14th in the championship last year. In his first three seasons, he was 13th, 14th and 14th. Prior to 2023, he was second and third in the championship for Venturi, what is now Maserati. I think we are more likely to see Mortara repeat 2018-19 where he had a three-race stretch of fourth, third and first early in the season before ending the year with eight finishes outside the points, six of which were retirements, than seeing Mortara end up winning four times and finishing in the points in 11 of 16 races like he did in 2021-22.

ABT CUPRA Formula E Team
Lucas di Grassi: #11 Mahindra M9Electro
What did he do last season: Di Grassi was third from pole position in the Mexico City season opener, earning him 18 points. He scored 14 points over the final 15 races, a seventh in Portland and a sixth in the first London race. About 43.9% of Mahindra's points scored in the 2023 season came from di Grassi's season opener.

What to expect in this season: A few days where di Grassi is surprising us and has an encouraging finish, but mostly difficult days where he isn't competitive or close to points. It is tough to see how it will be better, and it looks like matching 2023 will require another podium finish that does not fit in with the rest of his season.

Nico Müller: #51 Mahindra M9Electro
What did he do last season: Müller scored points in only four races, but scored in three of the final four to end on 15 points and 19th in the championship. 

What to expect in this season: Müller has never been great in Formula E. It has not helped that he has been with some sluggish teams in his first three seasons participating. If he can score 15 points again it will be a successful season. If he beats di Grassi in the championship, it will be a successful season. It will be tough for Müller to have a successful season.

The Mexico City ePrix weekend begins with a practice session on Friday January 12 at 5:25 p.m. ET. A second practice will be held at 8:25 a.m ET on Saturday January 13 with qualifying scheduled for 10:40 a.m. ET. The Mexico City ePrix opens the 2024 Formula E season at 3:00 p.m. ET.


Monday, January 8, 2024

Musings From the Weekend: Ten Years Late

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

The Dakar Rally began, and a few notable names are already out. Formula E has confirmed it will not be returning to Hyderabad in 2024 as it is less than a week from the season opener. Formula One teams are announcing dates for announcements. Williams will be in New York. It has been a rather quiet opening week of the year in the motorsports world. Jett Lawrence made some noise, winning the Supercross season opener on debut from Anaheim, and Supercross is where we will continue...

Ten Years Late
If you were enjoying the Supercross season opener this weekend from Anaheim, you may have notice something different. You may have felt it Sunday morning. There might have been a little more spring in your step, less weight on your shoulders and in your face. A more relaxed feeling. 

It is probably because you were not up until the early hours of Sunday morning for the 450cc main event. Instead of reading 1:00 am as you dropped into bed, it was 11:00 pm, a little late but not terribly late for a Saturday night, and you could easily slide under the sheets and into a slumber. 

Though the race was in Anaheim, it began at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time, 5:00 p.m. local. This is the new normal for Supercross in 2024 as the latest start time will be 8:30 p.m. Eastern. My only question is what took so long? 

Over a decade ago, before Formula One was booming in the United States, NASCAR was starting to slip, American sports car racing was still split and IndyCar was still desperate for anything good, everyone looked at Supercross and Rallycross as future series to boom. The reasons? The races were short, accommodating to shortening attention spans, and they could be held in urban surroundings, easily fitting into a football or baseball stadium, places people regularly visit and can contain 40,000 to 70,000 people. Supercross and Rallycross were sold as geared to Millennials, a group that was in its teen years and the eldest were in their 20s

Last decade, Supercross was praised for its potential, and rightfully so. Supercross was having no issues filling venues while NASCAR and IndyCar notably saw fewer spectators coming through their turnstiles and many tracks removed seats. A race window wasn't a three-hour marathon, but a segmented experience building to a finale. There were consequences with the heat races and last chance qualifiers, and only 22 riders, a fraction that started the night, would compete for the victory. Not to mention, there was variety between the 250cc and 450cc classes. It was two for the price of one. 

Supercross has made minor adjustments to how it does things but it has not shedded its identity. The races might now go to a time limit and semifinal races might be gone from a evening's program, but Supercross is the same. It has not increased gimmicks or tweaked the championship in hopes of increasing attention. Creating a championship that combines Supercross and Motocross seasons actually feels like something that should have been done a long time ago, the same with shifting start times.

The earlier start didn't seem to keep people away at the gate. Anaheim was full as it normally is, and I have a feeling other West Coast venues form San Francisco to San Diego, Seattle to Glendale, Arizona will not see a drop in attendance. 

It does feel like this move came ten years late. 

Over the last decade, I wondered why Supercross kept starting at 10:00 p.m. Eastern, especially when races were on Saturdays. These weren't Tuesday races like a Los Angeles Lakers game meant for the locals. This is a national series looking for a national audience and a fair number of its races were buried late at night. And Supercross consistently started at 10:00 p.m. Eastern. Even the season finales, whether it be from Las Vegas or Salt Lake City started that late. The championship was decided at 1:00 a.m. Eastern on a Sunday morning, lost to the night, and easily forgotten.

This is a prime time of the year for Supercross. It is the only motorsports in town in the United States, and it has two months to get everyone's attention. There is the 24 Hours of Daytona at the end of the month and the Daytona 500 isn't until the middle of February. Supercross has owned this window for decades, and it has always had the television coverage, whether it be on ESPN2, Speed, FS1, NBCSN, USA or Peacock. It does a good job, but it has left something on the table. 

It should be bigger, not overwhelmingly bigger, but bigger. For as much as we talk about Supercross and praise it, it doesn't even have the attention of the motorsports crowd. Look at how rare it is to see Supercross on Racer Magazine's website. It has no presence on Motorsport.com. For a brief moment, The Athletic's Jeff Gluck was giving it serious attention, but that has since subsided. 

The lack of attention isn't because of lack of action or lack of fans. It is just somehow forgotten though acknowledged for everything Supercross does right and as the only thing around in the early days of winter. 

Though Supercross hasn't made this move until now, the series is doing fine. This hasn't been a bad decision that has put the series in a dire position. It has a following. It fills stadiums. The racing is good. Sponsorship is not lacking, but it could be better.

In 2024, Supercross has finally made the move to maximize viewership across the United States. It is a different time. The series is now mainly on a streaming service, Peacock to be specific, and while streaming is the future, there is still a more reliably audience on network television and cable. The prime position was a decade ago when it was on a cable sports network every Saturday night and could have become a destination. Competition has only increased. Supercross is still going up against the NFL playoffs, and we will see more basketball, NBA and college, over the airwaves as we wait for spring to arrive.

This move should have been done a long time ago, but hopefully this takes Supercross up a level. Those Millennials are getting older. The 15-year olds are now 25, hopefully out of college and making a living with some change to spend on live events. The 30-year olds are now 40, and might have a few kids of their own, developing their own interests and passions. Favorable start times is one less hurdle in the way for viewership. After many years of waiting, Supercross could finally be positioned for an upward bump.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Jett Lawrence, but did you know...

RJ Hampshire won the 250cc season opener from Anaheim.

Dakar Rally Stage Winners: 

Cars
Prologue: Mattias Ekström
Stage 1: Guillaume De Mévius
Stage 2: Stéphane Peterhansel

Bikes
Prologue: Tosha Schareina
Stage 1: Ross Branch
Stage 2: José Ignacio Cornejo

UTV
Prologue: Xavier De Soultrait
Stage 1: Rodrigo Varela
Stage 2: Gerard Farrés

Light Proto
Prologue: Eryk Goczał
Stage 1: Eryk Goczał
Stage 2: Eryk Goczał

Quad
Prologue: Francisco Moreno Flores
Stage 1: Marcelo Medeiros
Stage 2: Marcelo Medeiros

Truck
Prologue: Janus van Kasteren
Stage 1: Janus van Kasteren
Stage 2: Janus van Kasteren

Coming Up This Weekend
The Dakar Rally continues.
Supercross heads north to San Francisco.
Formula E starts its new season in 2024.
The Chili Bowl.


Friday, January 5, 2024

2024 IndyCar Team Preview: Juncos Hollinger Racing

We might be only days into 2024, and the first race of the IndyCar season still might be over two months away, but the time has come to look ahead to the 2024 season. All of autumn is behind us and winter is the countdown to the new season. Most seats are accounted for and we have reached the part of the offseason where all it feels like the only thing remaining is the waiting.

There will be some changes to driver lineups when we reach St. Petersburg in 65 days time. Juncos Hollinger Racing has shaken up half of its drivers. In its first year as a full-time two-car effort the results were good, but JHR failed to show some of its bursts of speed from 2022. Speed is not the main cause for the dismissal of Callum Ilott, but the team is hoping a little more experience will take it further up the grid in 2024.

At First Glance... Is there any reason we should believe Juncos Hollinger Racing can win a race?
Seriously? Why should we think Juncos Hollinger Racing will be in contention to win races just because it added Romain Grosjean? 

The team has never finished on the podium. Last year, it had two top five finishes and three top ten finishes. As an organization it had an average finish of 17.5, had one top ten starting position and the team's average starting position was 20.617. 

And adding a driver with a career average finish of 14th, who is coming off his worst season based on average finish, and has never won an IndyCar race, is all of a sudden going to lift IndyCar's smallest team to the top of the pile? 

Call me a skeptic, but I don't think Grosjean alone will be enough. This team is more than just one piece away. 

Also consider how few teams win in IndyCar. It is a series where any team can win, but it can be a rare occurrence. It has been over a decade since A.J. Foyt Racing has won, and it had two fully funded cars for most of that time. Dale Coyne Racing is over five years removed from its most recent victory. Meyer Shank Racing's lone victory, the 2021 Indianapolis 500, is looking more like beginner's luck with each passing day. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing has one victory in the last three seasons. Ed Carpenter Racing has one victory in the last seven seasons. Even the mighty and mouthy Arrow McLaren didn't win in 2023. 

Why should we believe JHR will do it considering all we know?

There just needs to be one day, and Grosjean came close to that day with Dale Coyne Racing. He arguably should have won once with DCR. Grosjean came close to that day with Andretti Autosport. He arguably should have won at least once, if not twice, with Andretti. JHR showed bursts of qualifying speed in 2022. Those were almost nonexistent in 2023. Considering the temperament of Grosjean combined with where JHR was last year, this does not look a great match on paper.

Grosjean will not have a senior teammate besides him. As much praise Agustín Canapino earned in his rookie season for his results, his average finish was still 19.706, equal with Devlin DeFrancesco, behind Jack Harvey, who was fired three races early, and also behind Santino Ferrucci and Hélio Castroneves. Even with some development, Canapino is a long way away from being a contender. 

The hope might be for something grand, but JHR needs something a little greater than hope. 

2023 Juncos Hollinger Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 5th (St. Petersburg and Laguna Seca)
Poles: 0
Best Start: 8th (Portland)
Championship Finishes: 16th (Callum Ilott), 21st (Agustín Canapino)

Romain Grosjean - #77 Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
13.9722: Average points per race for Callum Ilott in 36 races with Juncos Hollinger Racing.

19.0638: Average points per race for Grosjean in 47 career starts

23: Lead lap finishes in his IndyCar career.

28: Drivers who had their first career victory came in their 50th career start or later.

What does a championship season look like for him?
It starts with some impressive drives from the back to front, taking a 17th starting position and turning it into a sixth or a 15th and putting it on the podium. After a string of top ten finishes, Grosjean has his best Indianapolis 500, completes all 200 laps and takes home a respectable top ten result. 

From the opening stanza of the season, JHR is able to build off the results and the qualifying pace improves, putting Grosjean into the second round of qualifying regularly and sneaking him into the Fast Six on occasion. It is in the middle third of the season where Grosjean gets his first victory of the season and it feels like a championship is practical. 

Damage is limited at Iowa, but it requires another victory or two mixed in with the oval races dotting the final third of the season. Consistent top ten results turned into top five results on road and street courses gets him to Nashville with a puncher's chance at the title and JHR and Grosjean pull off the improbable with a victory in the finale to take home the Astor Cup.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
Not much different from what we saw from Grosjean's first three seasons in IndyCar except fewer trips to the podium. The note about Callum Illot's top five finishes are they came on days of survival. St. Petersburg had a number of accidents, as did Laguna Seca and both were disjointed affairs. Ilott could keep his nose out of trouble and get a result. Grosjean is more known for getting his nose into trouble than avoiding it. 

There will be a promising day or two where Grosjean is mixing it up with a notable name, Will Power, Alexander Rossi, Colton Herta, and Grosjean is in fifth, sixth or seventh and it feels like JHR is trending in the right direction, but there will be rough patches, and some of those will be due to Grosjean's only failings; clipping a barrier, botching a restart, etc. There will also be weekends where the team is off and everyone is frustrated. 

Grosjean could increase his top ten finish total from last year and still lose positions in the championship. A year where he has four to six top ten finishes but ends up 14th to 18th in the championship is conceivable.

Agustín Canapino - #78 Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
3: Times Canapino was the top JHR finisher in 2023.

0: Times Canapino was the top JHR finisher when Callum Illot did not retire from the race. 

12: Starts outside the top twenty in 2023

18: Best starting position in the 2023 season

What does a championship season look like for him?
Something similar to Scott McLaughlin's sophomore season, only better. Victory and podium finishes early, but instead of having a slump in the spring and early summer, his results remain in the top ten, with a strong day at Indianapolis with perhaps some qualifying points to help pad his total. 

Once we get into summer, Canapino is constantly in the top five and wins a few times. These results might have to come after some tough qualifying performances, but, like in Grosjean's best case scenario, the team is improving throughout the season.

Any championship for Canapino will come down to the final race and a tough battle with a few notable drivers. It will be a true David vs. Goliath, Cinderella story. It will likely come down to Canapino overcoming a deficit in the final race, having a few fortunate circumstances go in his favor and Canapino having one of his best days to take an unthinkable title.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
About as good as how he did last season.

Canapino could be worse in 2024, but not noticeably worse. As celebrated as Canapino's rookie season was, it was still not a very good season. For most other rookies, those results would not be something to hang your hat on. The hope would be for a giant leap forward in year two. That feels like asking a lot.

In eight of 17 races last year, he started and finished outside the top twenty. He started outside the top twenty in eight of 12 road/street course races. He had five lead lap finishes, three of which were street courses and two of those races had five cautions or more, races where he was kept in the pack. 

Canapino could improve in all of those areas but gain almost no ground from where he was in the championship last season.

The one thing in Canapino's favor is he didn't get into many accidents. The only one that was because Canapino went over the edge was Indianapolis. His other retirements were Nashville, where it was a mechanical issue, and Portland, which was another mechanical failure. Canapino wasn't tearing corners off race cars on a regular basis. If you avoid doing that, you will always do slightly better than your pace. Any increase in accidents and the results will look much worse. 

Looking at the 2023 results, it is difficult to imagine how Canapino is going to get four or five top ten finishes in 2024. One or two could fall his way with high attrition rates or playing the right strategy, but that is the best case scenario at the moment. Breaking the top twenty in the championship would be a good year for the Argentine in year two.

The first round of the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series season will be the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg on March 10. Coverage will begin at noon on NBC and Peacock.



Thursday, January 4, 2024

2024 Supercross Season Preview

It does not take long for the first motorsports season of the New Year to come along, as the Supercross season is ready to get underway less than a week into 2024. This marks the second season of the SuperMotocross Championship, a combination of the 17-round Supercross season and the 11-round Motocross season, culminating in a three-race playoff to determine the SuperMotocross champion.

The Supercross season brings an immense amount of excitement. New riders are only making the series stronger as a number of other riders are returning from injuries. Riders have changed teams, including the defending champion.

Schedule
The 17-round season begins with a four-week California residency, starting in Anaheim for the traditional season opener on January 6. A week later, the series heads up to San Francisco for the first trip to the Golden Gate City since 2010. On January 20, Supercross heads down to San Diego before closing January with the second Anaheim date, the first Triple Crown event of the season.

February begins indoors with a trip to Detroit on February 3. Supercross heads back west, this time to Glendale, Arizona on February 10, the final round before an off-week. 

The lone Texas round this season will be in Arlington on February 24, one week prior to Daytona Bike Week. The midpoint of the season will be a new venue and city for Supercross. On March 9, Supercross visits Birmingham, Alabama for the first time. It is the first Supercross event in Alabama since a round was held at Talladega Superspeedway in 1984. 

The second Triple Crown race will be in Indianapolis on March 16 before heading to Seattle the following week. After one year away, St. Louis returns and hosts a round on March 30, the final Triple Crown event. 

There will be a one-week break before Foxborough on April 13 with Nashville following on April 20. For the first time since 1980, Philadelphia is on the Supercross schedule and the City of Brotherly Love will host the series on April 27. The Rocky Mountains close out the 2024 season. Denver will be on May 4 with the Salt Lake City season finale on May 11.

Red Bull KTM Factory Racing
Chase Sexton: #1 KTM 450SX-F Factory Edition
What did he do in 2023: Sexton won the 2023 Supercross championship with six victories, including three consecutive to close out the season. Sexton finished with 372 points and he stood on the podium 13 times. Despite missing three rounds in the Motocross season, Sexton was fourth in the championship with 15 podium finishes in 16 starts.
What to expect in 2024: Fortune may have played its hand a little more into Sexton's title last year than most others, but that does not negate the good season he was having up to that point. He did have a bit of an issue staying on the bike, especially while running at the front. Sexton should still have competitive races, but he will not dictate whether or not the championship stays with him.

Aaron Plessinger: #7 KTM 450SX-F Factory Edition
What did he do in 2023: Plessinger missed three Supercross races, but he had two podium results, including a second in the Salt Lake City season finale, putting him seventh in the championship on 236 points. In Motocross, he was third in the championship with five podium finishes and 19 top five finishes from 22 starts.
What to expect in 2024: A typical season with a few good results but other races where he is not really in the picture. Plessinger will find it tough to beat Sexton let alone the rest of the grid. If everyone stays healthy, he will be fighting just to remain in the top ten of the championship.

Team Honda HRC
Jett Lawrence: #18 Honda CRF450R
What did he do in 2023: Lawrence was the 2023 250cc Supercross West champion with six victories and finishing on the podium in all nine races. He moved to the 450cc class for the Motocross season and he had a perfect season, winning all 22 races. To cap off the season, Lawrence claimed the inaugural 450cc SuperMotocross championship.
What to expect in 2024: A championship push is the bare minimum for Lawrence. He has already shown his might in the 450cc class. The SuperMotocross playoff races were effectively Supercross events. It is easy to say the championship will go through him, but Lawrence has yet to race against Eli Tomac in 450cc competition. Lawrence will win races, but after a stellar second half of 2023, things might not be as easy at the start of 2024.

Hunter Lawrence: #96 Honda CRF450R
What did he do in 2023: With seven victories from ten races, Lawrence won the 250cc Supercross East championship. In the 250cc Motocross season, he won seven times and stood on the podium 16 times to take the championship by 20 points over Justin Cooper.
What to expect in 2024: While his brother Jett will get most of the attention, Hunter Lawrence should string together some good results. He definitely has the ability to win on his own, but he will more likely be competing to break into the top five in the championship than for the title.

Monster Energy Yamaha Factory Racing
Cooper Webb: #2 Yamaha YZ450F
What did he do in 2023: A concussion suffered in Nashville ended Webb's season three races early. He won twice, finished on the podium nine times and he was in the top five in all 14 races prior to his concussion. In the Motocross season, he had three podium finishes and finished no worse than sixth in the first four rounds, but left KTM midseason.
What to expect in 2024: Changing teams and joining the team with one of the best riders in series history will not make it easy for Webb. He had a great season going last year before his concussion. Webb will not be absent often at the front, but I do wonder if this is the season we see some regression.

Eli Tomac: #3 Yamaha YZ450F
What did he do in 2023: Tomac led the Supercross championship entering the penultimate round in Denver. In the Denver main event, Tomac suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon about three minutes into the race. This knocked him out of the race and out of the season finale, allowing Sexton to take the title unchallenged. Tomac had six victories and ten podium finishes prior to the injury.  
What to expect in 2024: It is hard to tell. Tomac has been out for nearly a year after his Achilles injury. There is no guarantee his fitness will be at the highest level. We know he can win races, but as a rider who has been eyeing retirement, this could be the blow that takes him out of the picture for race victories and championships. A stretch of hardship would not be a surprise, but neither would Tomac returning and picking up right where he left off.

Justin Cooper: #32 Yamaha YZ450F
What did he do in 2023: Cooper ran five rounds in the 450cc class in Supercross last year with his focus being on the 250cc Motocross season. He had finishes of seventh, seventh, tenth, ninth and sixth in his first taste of the 450cc class. In the Motocross season, Cooper ended up second in he 250-class with four victories, 12 podium finishes and 18 top five finishes.
What to expect in 2024: It doesn't feel like Cooper will be able to pick up the slack if either or both Webb and/or Tomac is off their game. Cooper can certainly score good results and gobs of points. It could be enough to sneak on the podium a few times, but regular top five finishes would be a great season for him.

Progressive Insurance ECSTAR Suzuki
Ken Roczen: #94 Suzuki RM-Z450
What did he do in 2023: Roczen picked up Suzuki's first Supercross victory since 2016 when he won at Indianapolis. He had six podium finishes, four of which occurred in the final five races, and he was fourth in the championship. Roczen won the FIM World Supercross championship. 
What to expect in 2024: Roczen was good in 2023, and it feels like good is his highest level. On the right night, he can win a main event, but those nights seldom come around at this stage in his career. With the depth of this field, if riders stay healthy, it will be a challenge for Roczen to crack the top five in the championship. We will see some flashy nights, but they will not be regular occurrences. 

Troy Lee Designs/Red Bull/Gas Gas Factory Racing
Justin Barcia: #51 Gas Gas MC 450F
What did he do in 2023: Barcia got on a heater in the second half of the season. After one podium finish in the first eight races, he had five podium finishes in the next six events, including a victory at the Meadowlands with his worst finish being fourth. However, his season ended early after an accident at Nashville breaking his right collarbone and two ribs. Barcia returned for the final three Motocross rounds where he had three top five finishes in six starts.
What to expect in 2024: Not much more than what we have seen from Barcia previously. There will be the stretch where he looks impressive, but a longer spell where he is rather average. Considering the addition of the Lawrence brothers to the series, I expect Barcia to take a dip in the championship.

Jorge Prado: #111 Gas Gas MC 450F
What did he do in 2023: The Spaniard Prado won the Motocross World Championship with 14 victories from 38 starts. He was classified on the round podium in 16 of 19 rounds as he had an average round finish of third. Prado also won the MX2 championship in 2018 and 2019.  
What to expect in 2024: Prado is only scheduled to run the first three rounds of the season ahead of the MXGP season starting on March 10. This will be new for Prado. The most recent example we have of someone coming from the world championship and running an AMA event was Tim Gajser running the Monster Energy Cup in 2019. Gajser went seventh, fourth and fourth in that event and finished fifth overall. Prado could be on the periphery of the podium in his cameo appearance, but he has what it takes to steal the show. It is not unheard of. Sébastien Tortelli won the 1998 season opener in a cameo appearance just before his world championship season. 

Monster Energy Kawasaki
Adam Cianciarulo: #9 Kawasaki KX450
What did he do in 2023: Cianciarulo had one podium finish and two top five finishes, both of which came in the final two races of the Supercross season. He missed three races and finished ninth in the championship. He was fifth in the Motocross championship with one podium finish. 
What to expect in 2024: Cianciarulo is the career that could have been. Four years ago, he looked prime to take the 450cc class by storm only for injuries to derail his career. It also does not help that Kawasaki is coming off a winless season. He should finish in the top ten of the championship and maybe he gets on the podium a few times.

Jason Anderson: #21 Kawasaki KX450
What did he do in 2023: Anderson had two podium finishes, but missed the final two races in the Supercross season due to a vertebrae injury suffered in Nashville. He wound up sixth in the championship. Anderson missed the first four Motocross rounds, but he had two podium finishes and nine top five finishes in 14 starts and ended up ninth in that championship.
What to expect in 2024: A typical Jason Anderson season, many top five finishes, a fair number of podium results, maybe he sneaks out a victory, but he ends up somewhere between fifth and eighth in the championship.

Rockstar Energy Husqvarna Factory Team
Malcolm Stewart: #27 Husqvarna FC450 RE
What did he do in 2023: Stewart only ran the first two races before a knee injury during a midweek practice session, ending his 2023 season before January even ended.
What to expect in 2024: After a promising 2022, it feels like 2023 was a missed opportunity for Stewart and the grid has only improved exponentially. There should be a few races where he will be in the mix, but victory will prove to be elusive. A back half of the top ten in the championship feels like where he will end up.

Christian Craig: #28 Husqavarna FC450 RE
What did he do in 2023: Craig had seven consecutive top ten finishes after finishing outside the top ten in the first four Supercross races, but he missed the final six races of the season after dislocating his hip and right elbow while breaking his arm in practice in Glendale.
What to expect in 2024: Mostly forgettable finishes but a few top ten results as well as Craig falls short of the top ten in the championship.

Phoenix Racing Honda
Dylan Ferrandis: #14 Honda CRF450R
What did he do in 2023: Ferrandis had finishes of fourth, sixth and fifth to open the 2023 Supercross season, but an accident in Houston left him with a concussion and knocked him out for the season. Ferrandis returned for the full Motocross season, where he was second to Jett Lawrence, 151 points back. Ferrandis had 16 podium finishes in 22 races.
What to expect in 2024: Some competitive races and on the right night a victory could go Ferrandis' way, but he could find himself frequently in that solid middle of the pack with Barcia, Anderson and Plessinger as those riders scrap for sixth in the championship.

Twisted Tea/H.E.P. Motorsports Suzuki Racing Team
Kyle Chisholm: #11 Suzuki RM-Z450
What did he do in 2023: Chisholm had two top ten finishes, but he failed to qualify for two races and ended up 15th in the Supercross championship.
What to expect in 2024: A few top ten finishes at best, but ultimately not really mentioned much.

Shane McElrath: #12 Suzuki RM-Z450
What did he do in 2023: After failing to qualify for the 2023 Supercross season opener, McElrath ran the final 16 races with all three of his top ten finishes coming in the final four events, putting him 11th in the championship.
What to expect in 2024: Slightly better than his teammate Chisholm, but nothing earth-shattering when it comes to results. 

The first round of the 2024 AMA Supercross season from Anaheim will be at 8:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on USA and Peacock. 



Monday, January 1, 2024

Musings From the Weekend: This is Where We Start

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Unfortunately, it was a somber end to the year with the passings of Gil de Ferran and Cale Yarborough. The Dubai 24 Hour was delayed two weeks and now conflicts with the 24 Hours of Daytona. DragonSpeed will now be at the 24 Hours of Daytona in LMP2. The Supercross season opener is only a few days away. The Dakar Rally is even closer to beginning. Somebody got a Truck Series ride. DHL is now a Chip Ganassi Racing sponsor. Andretti Autosport is now officially Andretti Global. However, IndyCar's end to 2023 is still on my mind.

This is Where We Start
The final month of 2023 likely did not go the way IndyCar was hoping it would. 

IndyCar announced it was delaying the introduction of the hybrid system until after the Indianapolis 500 in 2024, the exact debut date remains uncertain. Not long after that, Honda issued a statement saying it was considering exiting IndyCar once its contract expires after the 2026 season unless costs were reduced. Honda's suggestion was a spec engine.

It was not a great way to end the year. No one wants to end on bad news. No one wants to end with doom and gloom. It cannot be ignored when it is dower news and going in the opposite direction of where IndyCar hopes to be going. IndyCar spent such a long time with spec engines that returning to them is not what anyone is hoping for, nor does anyone believe it is the magic bullet to increase the number of manufacturers in the series. At best, spec engines keep Honda around and everything remains status quo.

Again, it is not great. However, it is not the end of the world.

Nobody is glad IndyCar finds itself in such a precarious situation, especially when it is keen to the health of the series. As difficult as it is at the moment, there are positives to find within IndyCar. 

The DW12 may be entering its 13th season of competition, but it remains a competitive chassis. Road course and street course races can have a few hundred passes and it doesn't phase us. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing can go from having a car missing the Indianapolis 500 to winning a race and competing for victories in multiple other events. With a few adjustments to the aero kit, it turned Texas from a pedestrian race into a thrilling affair, and ten of 12 Indianapolis 500s during that span have had 30 lead changes or more after none of the first 95 Indianapolis 500s had more than 29. 

The grid will still have north of two-dozen full-time cars and be closer to 30 entries. It wasn't that long ago IndyCar had 22 full-time cars. McLaren is on the grid, a name that was unfathomable not long ago. The competition is rather stout as the series has attracted champions from Supercars, NASCAR, Formula One, sports cars, and junior series drivers from all-around the globe see it as a viable series to make a career. 

There are concerns, and IndyCar must do something different to assure long-term health and success. As good as the DW12 chassis has been, it is time to figure out a new chassis. The DW12 has had a good life. It will be a cost to the teams to buy something new, but series around the world figure out how to introduce new cars much more frequently than IndyCar does and those series manage not to run teams out of business or cause the grid to shrink by 45% simply by upgrading the machinery. 

Japan's Super Formula introduced its third new chassis in the last ten years in 2023, and all three models Dallara constructed. Formula Two has a new car coming in 2024, and the outgoing chassis debuted in 2018. Oh, and Dallara is the chassis supplier in Formula Two as well. I think it is time.

If Honda is saying it will not renew when its contract is up, IndyCar must find a way to increase return on investment for the manufacturers and make the series more attractive to other brands. 

As celebrated as IndyCar is and how lauded the Indianapolis 500 is as the greatest race in the world, since 2013, only two manufacturers have participated in the race. Outside of Lotus' floundering two-car effort in 2012, the last new manufacturer to make its Indianapolis 500 debut was Toyota in 2003. If the race was as prestigious as we say it is, wouldn't more manufacturers try to win it? Wouldn't there be a constant flow of manufacturers in and out of the series in pursuit of this allegedly magnificent, motorsports triumph?

The saying goes, "Necessity is the mother of invention."

IndyCar isn't looking for invention, but it is faced with adaptation, and with Honda looking for the door, it is necessary to do something different. The series must adapt to insure Honda stays, insure Honda stays and attracts another make, or attract another manufacturer or two even if Honda is leaving. New regulations, new business model, something must be done.

Honda has been around since 1994. Nothing lasts forever. Offenhauser hasn't been in the Indianapolis 500 since 1980. Cosworth hasn't had an engine in the race since 1996 and no Cosworth engine has powered an IndyCar since 2008. It isn't a matter of Honda leaving that will hurt the series but the series not being prepared for such a time to come. 

It isn't impossible, but it will require patience, communication and dedication to a plan. Global pandemic and supply chain issues be damned, it is time to stick to a deadline and get the job done.

Effectively, IndyCar has been given a deadline. It could be a lofty task to retain Honda. It could be downright wishful, but Honda has made it clear something must different heading into 2027 to continue participation. The next 12 to 18 months is when the changes must be laid out and announced, and there must be a commitment to those changes and that deadline. 

Honda isn't going to go into September 2026 on the fence on whether or not it will return or not. Honda will likely know by the end of this year, and almost certainly by the middle of 2025 if it is going to continue. The clock is ticking on IndyCar for a new game plan and improving the economics of competing in the series. 

The series knows this. They will work to assure IndyCar remains afloat and does not face hardship in the not-too-distant future. It might not keep Honda, but an attempt will be made, and if it doesn't keep Honda, it must attract someone else. 

This is where we start. It is January 1, 2024. It is clear as day where IndyCar stands and what must be done. The quiet part has been said out-loud and it is no secret that a manufacturer supporting of over half the grids, three of its races and has been one of the most successful makes in IndyCar history is ready to call it time on competing in the series. 

What is going to be done to change the mood, keep a familiar partner involved and draw more into the party? 

We will wait and see where we end. 

Winners While We Were Away
In case you are wondering what is going on in the Andros Trophy, the ice racing championship out of France, Nathanaël Berthon and Dorian Boccolacci split the first round from Val Thorens. Aurélien Panis and Christophe Ferrier split the second round from Andorra. Panis leads the championship with 236 points, 13 points ahed of Yann Ehrlacher and 23 points clear of six-time champion Jean-Baptiste Dubourg with three rounds remaining.

Coming Up This Weekend
Supercross season opener from Anaheim. 
Dakar Rally begins on Saturday.