Wednesday, January 24, 2024

2024 IMSA Season Preview

After a 2023 season that met all expectations and then some, excitement remains high for the 2024 season. New manufacturers will be competing in a number of classes. 

In the first year of the GTP class, every manufacturer won and every manufacturer had a chance at the championship entering the season finale. This year, Lamborghini will make its debut but likely not until Sebring in what could be just an Endurance Cup program for year one.

Along with the anticipated Lamborghini debut, GTP has grown thanks to customer Porsche 963 entries. The LMP3 class is gone, but the LMP2 class has strengthen, and GTD Pro has two new manufacturers competing while GTD remains the behemoth class in the series.

For this year's 24 Hours of Daytona, 59 entries are kicking off this season with 48 entries committed to the full season. 

Schedule
There are a few changes to this year's calendar, as the Endurance Cup has expanded while one track is one while another event returns.

Daytona remains the season opener with a 24-hour race scheduled over January 27-28. It also remains the first round that counts toward the Endurance Cup. Sebring remains the middle of March, specifically March 16, and Sebring will remain the second round of the Endurance Cup. 

Long Beach will hosts GTP and GTD only on April 20. Three weeks later, IMSA heads north up the California cost to Laguna Seca for GTP, GTD Pro and GTD to contest the fourth round. On June 1, Detroit returns to the schedule as the top series will make its first visit to the new downtown street course, however, this will be GTP and GTD Pro only.

The third round of the Endurance Cup will be the middle round of the season, as the 6 Hours of Glen takes place on June 23, and ti will be the first time all four classes compete in the same race since Sebring. 

Three weeks later, IMSA returns to Mosport, but LMP2 will be the lead class with both GTD classes competing as well. Road America will make the four round with every class competing on August 4. The GT-only round at Virginia International Raceway remains on August 25.

Indianapolis expands to a six-hour race and will be the fourth round of the Endurance Cup. All four classes will participate and the race is scheduled for September 22. Petit Le Mans remains the season finale and will take place on October 12.

Grand Touring Prototype
#01 Cadillac Racing Cadillac V-LMDh
Drivers: Renger van der Zande, Sébastien Bourdais, Scott Dixon, Álex Palou

Why this car could win: It has three past overall winners of the 24 Hours of Daytona in this car. It has the defending IndyCar champion coming off a historic season. This team has chemistry. They all raced together in 2022. This will be the third year van der Zande, Bourdais and Dixon have raced to gather. it will be the fifth consecutive year van der Zande and Dixon have raced together. Chip Ganassi Racing has not won the 24 Hours of Daytona in its first three years back in the top class. It is due and this team finished third overall last year.

It also helps that it is starting second and the Cadillacs looked like the cars to beat in the test and in qualifying.

Why this car will not win: The #01 Cadillac had more races get away from it in one season last year than some teams experience in five years. We are in a stage where if something can go wrong it will go wrong for this team. 

What to expect for the full season: Let's keep in mind that last year all but one of the full-time GTP entries went into Petit Le Mans with a shot at the title. Pretty much every car in this class can win the championship. For the #01 Cadillac, it must limit the misfortune. The talent and speed is there to wake the title. It would not be a surprise if that was the case.

#5 Proton Competition Porsche 963
Drivers: Gianmaria Bruni, Neel Jani, Alessio Picariello, Romain Dumas

Why this car could win: This car is filled with endurance racing success. Jani and Dumas each won the 24 Hours of Le Mans overall. Bruni won in LMP2 last year at Daytona to add to his handful of Le Mans class victories. Picariello is coming up after two GT championships in three European Le Mans Series seasons. 

Why this car will not win: There is plenty of Daytona inexperience in this team, and unfortunately it will start last in class after an accident just prior to qualifying. Jani has only raced here one. Picariello is making his Daytona debut. There are four Porsches in this class and Proton has the least experience with the car. 

What to expect for the full season: Bruni and Jani are a sneaky dangerous pairing, however, Jani has never run a full season of IMSA. Bruni has run almost all the track in IMSA but has never done a full season. Bruni has never race a prototype full-time. Proton will have a few races where it is in the mix for the podium or more, but there will be a handful of days it is struggling to break the top half of the field. 

#6 Porsche Penske Motorsport Porsche 963
Drivers: Nick Tandy, Mathieu Jaminet, Kévin Estre, Laurens Vanthoor

Why this car could win: Look at this lineup! Tandy and Jaminet won twice last year. Estre and Vanthoor was in the best Porsche in the World Endurance Championship last year. This lineup has plenty of Daytona experience and, more importantly, Daytona success.

Why this car will not win: The #6 Porsche did not finish any of the endurance races last year. Now, one of those retirements was the 12 Hours of Sebring where it was battling for the lead and was taken out when the top three all took each other out with 15 minutes remaining, but this car has been snakebitten in endurance races since it had an accident in qualifying for Daytona last year where it looked set for pole position.

What to expect for the full season: Results will remain good. I do think the #6 Porsche will finish behind the #7 Porsche in the championship, but it will not be without a few impressive days from the #6 camp.

#7 Porsche Penske Motorsport Porsche 963
Drivers: Dane Cameron, Felipe Nasr, Matt Campbell, Josef Newgarden

Why this car could win: Cameron is back to IMSA full-time. Nasr has a great track record at Daytona in the overall class. Nasr and Campbell won in GTD Pro at Daytona in 2022. This team is adding Newgarden, a driver fresh off an Indianapolis 500 victory and a good first step into sports car racing. 

Why this car will not win: Cameron has not even finished on the podium at the 24 Hours of Daytona, overall or class. Campbell is still rather new to prototype racing and this will only be Newgarden's second race in the Porsche.

What to expect for the full season: With Cameron back as a full-time IMSA driver, it should lift this entry and he and Nasr should be challenging for the championship. The #7 Porsche will be on the podium frequently. 

#10 Acura/HRC/Konica Minolta Wayne Taylor Racing with Andretti Acura ARX-06
Drivers: Ricky Taylor, Filipe Albuquerque, Brendon Hartley, Marcus Ericsson

Why this car could win: Acura has won three consecutive races. WTRAndretti's average finish in the last five 24 Hours of Daytona is 1.4. First, first, first, second and second. Taylor and Albuquerque have great chemistry and it has added a proven sports car ace in Hartley with Ericsson joining the team. WTRAndretti did not win a race last year. It is due. 

Why this car will not win: An average finish of 1.4 is not going to last forever. Acura winning is not going to last forever. The only manufacturer to win four consecutive times at Daytona is Porsche, which won four on the spin the 1970s and then 11 consecutive times from 1977-87. Life is a numbers game. The numbers will eventually go against WTRAndretti.

What to expect for the full season: A championship push that will either end in cheers or tears. That has been the M.O. for WTRAndretti for the last few years. Taylor and Albuquerque are going to win a race this year after going winless in 2023. They will be in the title fight until the very end. Will this be the year it ends in WTRAndretti's favor? 

#24 BMW M Team RLL BMW M Hybrid V8
Drivers: Jesse Krohn, Philipp Eng, Augusto Farfus, Dries Vanthoor

Why this car could win: BMW is in a much better place than it was this time a year ago entering Daytona. BMW was competing for race victories last season. This is a group of drivers that has raced with each other frequently, and it is adding Vanthoor who has great success in GT competition. 

Why this car will not win: This was the worst GTP car last year. The #24 BMW will start eighth of ten GTP cars. It is a group that isn't versed in prototype cars. Krohn is coming off the bench after being sporadically used across a bunch of GT3 series last year. Vanthoor has three prototype starts to his name and it will be his first visit to Daytona.  

What to expect for the full season: For all the gains BMW has made, this still feels like one of the weaker entries in class. It was the one full-time GTP car that did not have a shot at the title at Petit Le Mans last year. That will remain the same in 2024.

#25 BMW M Team RLL BMW M Hybrid V8
Drivers: Connor De Phillippi, Nick Yelloly, Maxime Martin, René Rast

Why this car could win: De Phillippi and Yelloly stood on the podium four time last season and are responsible for BMW's only victory. Rast has continued his winning ways in LMP2 competition after winning in everything from Porsche SuperCup, Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters and GT3 competition. 

Why this car will not win: BMW was dreadful for the most part in endurance races last year. It won Watkins Glen, but that was after the Porsche was disqualified. I twas second at Sebring, but that was after the top three took each other out with 15 minutes left. The team's average finish in endurance races last year was 6.125.

What to expect for the full season: BMW looks more competitive. This should be the better of the two BMWs. De Phillippi and Yelloly should get decent results, but this will be a tougher season as the quality has increased in GTP. It will likely take more than being second at the right race where a car fails inspection to win a race this year.

#31 Whelen Cadillac Racing Cadillac V-LMDh
Drivers: Pipo Derani, Jack Aitken, Tom Blomqvist

Why this car could win: It is the defending GTP champions adding a man who has won the 24 Hours of Daytona the last two years, oh, and it won pole position for this race. Need I say anymore? Ok, I will. Derani has been one of IMSA's best drivers for the last decade. Blomqvist hasn't been quite bad in his own right. Aitken did a suitable job in his first year as an endurance driver for the #31 team.

Why this car will not win: It is the only three-driver lineup in the class. Could it come down to these drivers being a little more fatigued as we get into Sunday morning and afternoon? Also, defending champions, pole-sitter, nobody stays on top forever, and not winning the race would not be a surprise. Two out of three ain't bad, but it will not be enough in the case of the #31 Cadillac.

What to expect for the full season: It will be difficult to repeat as champions, especially considering the strength of this class. I expect the #31 Cadillac to take a slight step back, but it will remain competitive. 

#40 Acura/HRC/DEX Imaging Wayne Taylor Racing with Andretti Acura ARX-06
Drivers: Jordan Taylor, Louis Déletraz, Colton Herta, Jenson Button

Why this car could win: Déletraz is getting his big break after being a menace in LMP2 competition and winning nearly everything over the last three years. Taylor is back to prototypes after his stint with Corvette, and he left coming off winning Daytona in two of his final five seasons. Herta has multiple Daytona victories already. Button is a past World Drivers' Champion. There are no weak links in this team.

Why this car will not win: It goes back to Acura and the fact it is hard to win four consecutive years. Taylor has been away from prototype racing for the last four years. This is a new car for Herta and Button.

What to expect for the full season: Déletraz can lead this team as Taylor adjusts to returning to prototype competition full-time. There will be a few races where this car is off, but it should be competing for podium positions on a regular basis.

#85 JDC-Miller MotorSports Porsche 963
Drivers: Tijmen van der Helm, Richard Westbrook, Phil Hanson, Ben Keating

Why this car could win: JDC-Miller received its Porsche late last year, but it has had time to develop. Van der Helm has respectable ELMS results in LMP2 while Hanson is a regular winner in ELMS. Hanson already has a class victory at Le Mans.  Westbrook provides the steady hand to guide this team. Keating is smart and will not overdrive the car. 

Why this car will not win: There are three other Porsches that will be difficult to beat. Keating is a good driver, but he is an amateur in a pool full of professionals. He will not be driving long, but he will have to do a stint and this will effectively make the #85 Porsche a three-driver lineup. There are stronger cars in this class than van der Helm, Westbrook and Hanson.  

What to expect for the full season: Van der Helm did well last year in his first taste of IMSA, and he will have Westbrook adding a wealth of experience. Somebody has to finish toward the back of this class on a regular basis. I think JDC-Miller will be in the middle at best. 

LMP2
#2 United Autosports Oreca-Gibson
Drivers: Ben Keating, Nico Pino, Ben Hanley, Patricio O'Ward

Why this car could win: It honestly might be the strongest team in the class. Keating is perhaps the best bronze driver in the world, and he won pole position. Hanley has won this race before and is as good as they come among the career LMP2 drivers. Pino was second in this race last year in LMP3, and he had a strong first season in LMP2 driving in ELMS. O'Ward has won this race twice, and could be the best talent in the class.

Why this car will not win: Keating is double-dipping again, and it has yet to pay off, though he has had a few close calls. It also doesn't help that in the pro-am classes it just doesn't seem to matter how deep the teams are. Crazy things happen all the time.

What to expect for the full season: Keating won the championship last year with PR1/Mathiasen and he is now moving to the stout United Autosport. Hanley was second in LMP2 last year behind Keating. They are combining for this season. It will be a pairing that will be at the top constantly and will prove tough to beat.

#04 CrowdStrike Racing by APR Oreca-Gibson
Drivers: George Kurtz, Colin Braun, Toby Sowery, Malthe Jakobsen

Why this car could win: This car lost by an eyelash last year. Kurtz and Braun have raced together in multiple categories and won together in all of them. Braun was the overall winner last year with Meyer Shank Racing. Sowery has won in Indy Lights and found success everywhere. Jakobsen also made his first starts in LMP2 last year, and did well in the Asian Le Mans Series as well as ELMS.

Why this car will not win: Sowery is still new to LMP2 racing, sports car racing and endurance racing. This is only Jakobsen's second trip to Daytona. It is a good lineup, but there are a few weaknesses.

What to expect for the full season: It is Braun leading an LMP2 lineup with a co-driver that is competent and the two have succeed together in other series. Kurtz was only 37 points short of a championship last year. With Braun in the team, this pairing should push for the title in 2024.

#8 Tower Motorsports Oreca-Gibson
Drivers: John Farano, Michael Dinan, Ferdinand Habsburg, Scott McLaughlin

Why this car could win: McLaughlin willed this car to victory last year at Sebring after an accident. If it wasn't for a fuel line issue at the start of last year's 24 Hours of Daytona, Tower could have contended for the race victory. Habsburg has won the world championship at the LMP2 level, as well as ELMS and ALMS titles.

Why this car will not win: It is starting last in class, and Dinan has only run two LMP2 races before, both were at Sepang last month in the Asian Le Mans Series. I don't think McLaughlin and Habsburg are enough to counter Dinan and Farano.   

What to expect for the full season: Charlie Eastwood will be Farano's co-driver for the full season starting at Sebring. Eastwood has been respectable in LMP2 competition, IMSA will be new for him, but he should keep Tower and Farano in the mix at most rounds.

#11 TDS Racing Oreca-Gibson
Drivers: Steven Thomas, Mikkel Jensen, Hunter McElrea, Charles Milesi

Why this car could win: Thomas and Jensen are back together after a strong season last year. In 19 IMSA starts, Jensen has won eight times McElrea is coming off two good years in Indy Lights while hoping to expand into IndyCar or sports cars. Milesi has won the LMP2 in the FIA World Endurance Championship.

Why this car will not win: It is too dependent on Jensen, and Milesi won that WEC title with Team WRT with Robin Frijns and Ferdinand Habsburg as his co-drivers. Since then, this results in class have been pedestrian. 

What to expect for the full season: The lineup remains the same. Thomas and Jensen were third, 53 points off the championship in 2023. This car will win races. The championship remains a strong possibility, but this class has gotten much stronger.

#18 Era Motorsport Oreca-Gibson
Drivers: Dwight Merriman, Ryan Dalziel, Christian Rasmussen, Connor Zilisch

Why this car could win: Dalziel and Merriman have been racing together for four years. They won this race three years ago. Rasmussen was the endurance driver in this car last year and he is back this year while he is coming off an Indy Lights championship. Zilisch is a 17-year-old prospect that has a bright future in sports cars and possibly NASCAR.

Why this car will not win: Era Motorsport has struggled in this race the last two years as the class has gotten stronger. Zilisch is making his prototype debut in this race let alone his LMP2 debut. 

What to expect for the full season: Close to last season. Era Motorsport was fifth in the championship with two podium finishes but no victories. Era could win this year, but there are some strong entries in this class and a championship will require rising to a higher level.

#20 MDK by High Class Racing Oreca-Gibson
Drivers: Dennis Andersen, Seth Lucas, Laurents Hörr, Scott Huffaker

Why this car could win: Huffaker has found much success as an endurance driver in IMSA with five victories in 15 starts. Andersen has spent the last two seasons in IMSA. 

Why this car will not win: Lucas is making his 24 Hours of Daytona debut, and he has only competed in two LMP2 races, the first two rounds of the ALMS season. Hörr has not raced at Daytona since 2021.

What to expect for the full season: Lucas is only 17 years old and High Class Racing is historically an under-performing LMP2 team. A trip to the podium would be a good season, but at best this entry is looking at finishing in the middle of the championship.

#22 United Autosports Oreca-Gibson
Drivers: Dan Goldburg, Paul di Resta, Bijoy Garg, Felix Rosenqvist

Why this car could win: Di Resta has good results in LMP2 competition and he now drives for Peugeot's Hypercar program. Garg is coming off a successful transition to sports car racing as he won the LMP3 championship in the VP Racing SportsCar Challenge, and he won in the LMP3 class at Petit Le Mans. Rosenqvist brings in some speed and a steady pari of hands. 

Why this car will not win: This will be Garg's first 24-hour race. Goldburg has only one Daytona appearance. Rosenqvist has raced at Daytona since 2018. This lineup doesn't feel like it has the strength as some other in class, especially its sister car. 

What to expect for the full season: Di Resta is a good lead driver, but Goldburg is too much of an unknown competing in what will be a competitive class. There could be a few races where di Resta can carry the team up the grid, but a championship is a daunting task.

#33 Sean Creech Motorsports Ligier-Gibson
Drivers: Lance Willsey, João Barbosa, Nolan Siegel, Jonny Edgar

Why this car could win: In the last three years, SCM has finished second at Daytona in LMP3. Barbosa and Willsey have been together that entire time. Siegel was in the team last year, and Siegel won in MP2 last year driving for CrowdStrike Racing by APR at Watkins Glen and Petit Le Mans as its endurance driver. Edgar is coming in from Formula Three, where he won the 2023 FIA Formula Three finale at Monza.

Why this car will not win: This is the only Ligier in the class. It was 12th in qualifying. There is a reason why the Oreca is the chassis of choice. Willsey is a good, but I am not sure he is LMP2 good, and Edgar will be making his LMP2 debut in this race.

What to expect for the full season: It will be the only Ligier on the grid, and Oreca is clearly the superior LMP2 chassis. There could be some good races, but I do not anticipate SCM pushing for the championship.

#52 Inter Europol by PR1 Mathiansen Motorsports Oreca-Gibson
Drivers: Jakub Śmiechowski, Nick Boulle, Tom Dillmann, Clément Novalak

Why this car could win: Boulle qualified second in class, and he won at Daytona in 2017 in the Prototype Challenge class. Śmiechowski has plenty of LMP2 experience, and endurance race experience, as he won the LMP2 class at Le Mans last year. Dillmann was a Hypercar driver and Novalak is coming after a stint in Formula Two.

Why this car will not win: Dillmann was mostly on the sidelines for the last four years other than a year the Le Mans Cup LMP3 class in 2022. Novalak has no sports car experience. Śmiechowski might have won at Le Mans, but that is his only victory in five years racing in LMP2.

What to expect for the full season: Mostly middle of the pack races. I don't see the results being much different in IMSA for Šmiechowski compared to other series. All of these tracks will be new. Boulle will be competing full-time for the first time ever in IMSA. There will be some tough days for this entry.

#74 Riley Oreca-Gibson
Drivers: Gar Robinson, Felipe Fraga, Josh Burdon, Felipe Massa

Why this car could win: Riley dominated LMP3 competition with Robinson, Fraga and Burdon. Adding Massa brings a massive amount of experience to this entry. Robinson qualified fourth. 

Why this car will not win: This will be the first LMP2 race for all four drivers. Massa has never raced an endurance race before.

What to expect for the full season: Robinson and Fraga were a dominant duo in LMP3. They are moving up to LMP2. It looks like they will remain competitive, but that dominance will not be duplicated considering the dept of this class. Riley should win a race. A championship push is not out of the question, but it is not a guarantee. 

#81 DragonSpeed Oreca-Gibson
Drivers: Eric Lux, Kyffin Simpson, James Allen, Sebastián Álvarez

Why this car could win: Allen is coming off a career year in 2023 where he won in LMP2 at Daytona last year and then won the ELMS championship. Simpson was one of Allen's co-drivers in ELMS last year and won the championship. Simpson also had good results in the IMSA endurance races last year driving for Tower Motorsports. Álvarez moved up to LMP2 last year and Lux won at Daytona in this class two years ago.

Why this car will not win: Lux qualified ninth. It is a good lineup. Álvarez is an unknown, and Lux is good but not great. This isn't the same quality lineup as the 2022 drivers Lux had around him.  

What to expect for the full season: DragonSpeed will only be competing in the Endurance Cup races.

#88 Richard Mille AF Corse Oreca-Gibson
Drivers: Luis Pérez Companc, Nicklas Nielsen, Lilou Wadoux, Matthieu Vaxivière

Why this car could win: AF Corse made its LMP2 debut at Daytona last year and wound up third in class. Nielsen and Vaxivière return from that lineup. Nielsen was third in the World Endurance Drivers' championship driving for Ferrari. Pérez Companc and Wadoux raced together in WEC's GTE Am class last year

Why this car will not win: Pérez Companc has not raced an LMP2 car since 2013, and Wadoux's only year in LMP2 machines was in 2022.

What to expect for the full season: AF Corse is only planning on running the 24 Hours of Daytona.

#99 AO Racing Oreca-Gibson
Drivers: P.J. Hyett, Paul-Loup Chatin, Matthew Brabham, Alex Quinn

Why this car could win: Chatin has won multiple ELMS championship and he won at Daytona in 2021. Quinn had good performances last year as PR1/Mathiasen Motorsports' endurance driver. Brabham had success in Indy Lights

Why this car will not win: Hyett is moving up from GTD where he wasn't that impressive. Brabham is making his first start in an LMP2 car. Quinn has only compete in seven races over the previous two years.

What to expect for the full season: Hyett and Chatin wil be the full-time drivers. Hyett did well in GTD last year, but this is a massive leap up into LMP2. His best finish in GTD was sixth with five top ten finishes in nine starts. I don't think this entry will be competing for podium finishes on a regular basis.

GTD Pro
#1 Paul Miller Racing BMW M4 GT3
Drivers: Bryan Sellers, Madison Snow, Neil Verhagen, Sheldon van der Linde

Why this car could win: Sellers and Snow won the GTD championship last year. They have a Daytona class victory dating back to 2020. Van der Linde was the DTM champion in 2022 and he was fourth in that championship last year. Verhagen has been a promising BMW junior driver competing mostly in Europe.

Why this car will not win: BMW doesn't appear to have the pace in it this year, as Paul Miller Racing will start 12th out of 13 cars. This is Verhagen's IMSA debut.   

What to expect for the full season: It is Paul Miller Racing. Though stepping up from GTD, Sellers and Snow will win a few races, stand on the podium for some others and, come Petit Let Mans, it will have a shout at the championship. I don't think they will close to same level of dominance after winning five races in 2023. However, PMR will remain a factor.

#3 Corvette Racing by Pratt Miller Motorsports Corvette Z06 GT3.R
Drivers: António García, Alexander Sims, Daniel Juncadella

Why this car could win: García has two class victories and an overall victory at Daytona. Sims is coming off the GTP championship. Juncadella won this race last year with WeatherTech Racing and he wound up second int he GTD Pro championship in his first IMSA season last year.

Why this car will not win: It is a combination of new pieces. Sims is back at Corvette. Juncadella is new. It is a new car and problems pop up   

What to expect for the full season: Good but not great. This is a change with Sims replacing Jordan Taylor. Sims had good success in GT competition driving for BMW. I think the change in drivers will take some adjusting.

#4 Corvette Racing by Pratt Miller Motorsports Corvette Z06 GT3.R
Drivers: Tommy Milner, Nicky Catsburg, Earl Bamber

Why this car could win: Miller is a trusted IMSA veteran combined with Catsburg coming off a great season that saw him win the GTE Am championship in WEC. Bamber is good as they come with success nearly everywhere he has driven. 

Why this car will not win:  The #4 Corvette was notably off the #3 Corvette, qualifying seventh to the #3 Corvette's third. Milner spent much of last year on the sideline. Bamber hasn't been full-time in a GT car since 2020. Bamber has yet to win at Daytona. 

What to expect for the full season: Catsburg can carry this entry as Milner only ran three endurance's last year. I don't think the Corvettes will be far a part, but if one was languishing behind the other, it would be the #4 Corvette based on repetitions from last year.

#9 Pfaff Motorsports McLaren 720S GT3 EVO
Drivers: Marvin Kirchhöfer, Oliver Jarvis, James Hinchcliffe, Alexander Rossi

Why this car could win: Pfaff is a championship winning team with quality drivers. Jarvis won the 24 Hours of Daytona overall two years ago on his way to a DPi championship. Rossi has an overall Daytona victory. Kirchhöfer has spent the last few seasons racing McLarens in a variety of series.

Why this car will not win: It is Pfaff's first race with the McLaren. Hinchcliffe's only race in the last two years was in Mazda MX-5 Cup. Rossi has never raced a GT car. Jarvis hasn't raced a GT car since the 2020 Kyalami 9 Hours. Kirchhöfer didn't have great results last year in the British GT Championship nor GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup.

What to expect for the full season: Pfaff will be adjusting to a new car as will Jarvis. Combined with Kirchhöfer in a new series, I think victory will be hard to come by considering the depth of this class. Podium results would be a good benchmark for this team.

#14 VasserSullivan Lexus RC F GT3
Drivers: Jack Hawksworth, Ben Barnicoat, Kyle Kirkwood, Mike Conway

Why this car could win: The Lexus dominated the GTD Pro championship last year with Hawksworth and Barnicoat. This lineup only gets strong with Kirkwood, who has success and comfort with the Lexus, and Conway, an overall winner at Le Mans and an all-around brilliant driver. Oh, and this car qualified second in class.

Why this car will not win: Lexus has never won the 24 Hours of Daytona. This is one of the best cars on paper. The 24 Hours of Daytona doesn't always go to the best car and lineup. It is a long race, but the #14 Lexus should get its say in the final result.

What to expect for the full season: After thrashing the competition in 2023, the expectation is to do the same in 2024. It likely will not play out that way, but Hawksworth and Barnicoat should remain the pairing to beat. They might not finish on the podium nine times, but they should be up their regularly in their title defense.

#19 Iron Lynx Lamborghini Huracán GT3 Evo 2
Drivers: Franck Perera, Jordan Pepper, Andrea Caldarelli, Mirko Bortolotti

Why this car could win: Lamborghini has a good record at Daytona and three of the four drivers in this lineup have won this race in class. Bortolotti was second in the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters championship last year. Pepper and Caldarelli have familiarity competing together in GT World Challenge America. 

Why this car will not win: Since winning three consecutive years in GTD at Daytona, Lamborghini has only one podium finish in the three years since that streak.   

What to expect for the full season: This will be a Daytona-only entry at the moment, but could run other endurance races.

#23 Heart of Racing Team Aston Martin Vantage GT3 Evo
Drivers: Ross Gunn, Alex Riberas, Mario Farnbacher

Why this car could win: Gunn and Riberas are co-drivers for a third consecutive season. They have won two races in each of their first two years together. Farnbacher has won the GTD championship twice. 

Why this car will not win: Heart of Racing Team does not have great results at Daytona, and the car is already set back starting 11th in class. 

What to expect for the full season: Good results, but a repeat of 2023 will not be enough. Heart of Racing Team won twice but it was not enough to overcome a slow start. Any stumble out of the gate will set its championship hopes back.

#60 Iron Lynx Lamborghini Huracán GT3 EVO2
Drivers: Claudio Schiavoni, Matteo Cressoni, Romain Grosjean, Matteo Cairoli

Why this car could win: Cairoli had good results driving for Porsche in ELMS and WEC. Cressoni and Schiavoni were co-drivers last year in WEC. Grosjean was fourth in both of his IMSA starts last year with Iron Lynx. 

Why this car will not win: In a strange twist, this entry was re-classified to GTD Pro due to a regulation preventing a GTD team from entering multiple platinum-rated drivers in one entry for the 24 Hours of Daytona. Grosjean and Cairoli are both platinum drivers. Schiavoni is a weak link in a pro class. Grosjean still has limited GT experience. It isn't even the best Lamborghini in the class.  

What to expect for the full season: Like its sister car, this entry could run a few endurance races. However, it may be a GTD entry as this should be the only race it has multiple platinum drivers as Grosjean should be in Lamborghini's GTP program later this season.

#62 Risi Competizione Ferrari 296 GT3
Drivers: Daniel Serra, Davide Rigon, Alessandro Pier Guidi, James Calado

Why this car could win: Calado and Pier Guidi won Le Mans overall last year. Serra was the third driver with Caladao and Pier Guidi at Le Mans four times in GTE Pro, which saw the three win the class once and finish second twice. Rigon has competed at Daytona the lsat ten years, eight of those with Risi.

Why this car will not win: It is difficult to argue against Risi. Though half of this lineup spent 2023 focused on Hypercar competition, it shouldn't hurt their ability. Other than this is an endurance-only team and it isn't as battle tested as the full-time teams, there are not many knocks. 

What to expect for the full season: Risi will contest the Endurance Cup rounds.

#64 Ford Multimatic Motorsports Ford Mustang GT3
Drivers: Harry Tincknell, Mike Rockenfeller, Christopher Mies

Why this car could win: Rockenfeller is a past Daytona overall winner. Tincknell has a great relationship with Multimatic having raced the Ford GT program and the Mazda DPi program. Mies has won multiple GT3 championships in Europe as well as multiple Nürburgring 24 Hours.

Why this car will not win: This was the slowest GTD Pro car in qualifying. It doesn't feel like the Ford is fully developed to compete with the established entries. I am not sure we can be certain the car will last the entire race.

What to expect for the full season: Teething problems. It is a new car, and the Ford GT had its issues but ultimately won the 24 Hours of Le Mans in its first year. Ford has shown it can rise up quickly. Tincknell and Rockenfeller are a suitable pairing and any success from those two will not surprise anyone.

#65 Ford Multimatic Motorsports Ford Mustang GT3
Drivers: Joey Hand, Dirk Müller, Frédéric Vervisch

Why this car could win: Hand and Müller have a long relationship racing with one another. They were co-drivers at BMW and in the Ford GT program. In 2011, they were American Le Mans Series GT champions. They won in GTLM in the 2017 24 Hours of Daytona and that was a year after a class victory at Le Mans. Vervisch is coming over after being an Audi driver since 2015.

Why this car will not win:  Hand has not competed in IMSA since the 2020 12 Hours of Sebring. He has spent the last few seasons part-time in Michelin Pilot Challenge and NASCAR. Müller was on the sidelines for most of the last two years. Vervisch doesn't really blow you away.

What to expect for the full season: This has the makings of the "ain't good as I once was" entries. Hand and Müller have not been competing on a full-time basis the last few years. They haven't completely lost it, but the field has gotten stronger. This year could be an eye-opener.

#75 SunEnergy1 Racing Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Kenny Habul, Jules Gounon, Luca Stolz, Maro Engel

Why this car could win: Gounon and Engel won this race last year with WeatherTech Racing. Gounon is coming off a fabulous season where he won two championships and was second in IMSA's GTD Pro championship. Engel has won at Daytona in two of the last three years. Stolz is a trusted driver with Mercedes-AMG.

Why this car will not win: The car is pegged back, and I don't think Mercedes-AMG can recreate it magic from last year.  

What to expect for the full season: SunEnergy1 will only be at Daytona, but we could see it in additional races.

#77 AO Racing Porsche 911 GT3 R (992)
Drivers: Laurin Heinrich, Sebastian Priaulx, Michael Christensen

Why this car could win: Well, it is starting on pole position thanks to Priaulx. Heinrich won the 2022 Porsche Carrera Cup Germany championship and he was third in the Porsche SuperCup that same season. Christensen is a proven driver with victories at Daytona and Le Mans, as well as having a world championship to his name.

Why this car will not win: Heinrich is making his IMSA debut and Daytona will be his endurance racing debut as well. Between Priaulx and Heinrich, it is a rather young lineup.

What to expect for the full season: Heinrich is making the leap to IMSA and every track will be new for him. This will be a good chance for Priaulx to lead the way. This team could take a surprise victory but also have a few off days where no one notices.

GTD
#12 VasserSullivan Lexus RC F GT3
Drivers: Frankie Montecalvo, Parker Thompson, Aaron Teliz, Ritomo Miyata

Why this car could win: It is a Lexus and it is as strong of a lineup you could ask for. Three-quarters of this team has been in this organization for years, they are race winners and are comfortable with the car. Added to the mix is the Super GT and Super Formula champion who is about to race in Formula Two and Miyata could be on the verge of taking the world by stor. Oh, and this car will be starting on pole position.

Why this car will not win: It is hard to find flaws with this car. Unfortunately, motorsports isn't fair and the best car doesn't always win.  

What to expect for the full season: Considering what the sister car did in GTD Pro, the #12 Lexus should show some muscle. Thompson is moving into the full-time seat alongside Montecalvo. This team was third in the championship last year in what wasn't a spectacular year. They could be third again but have much better results.

#13 AWA Corvette C8.R GTD
Drivers: Orey Fidani, Matthew Bell, Lars Kern, Alex Lynn

Why this car could win: Fidani, Bell and Kern all raced together with AWA in the LMP3 class last year. Lynn is a top-tier prototype driver dropping in to run at Daytona, and Lynn has GT success.

Why this car will not win: There are better cars in this class, and this is AWA's first race with the Corvette. None of the other three drivers are close to Lynn's talent.

What to expect for the full season: GTD is quite a strong class. Fidani and Bell will be fighting uphill.

#17 AWA Corvette C8.R GTD
Drivers: Anthony Mantella, Nico Varrone, Thomas Merrill, Charlie Eastwood

Why this car could win: Three of these four driers raced together at Daytona last year in LMP3, and they won. Eastwood is the new addition. Merrill was second in the Trans-Am TA2 championship last year. Varrone is coming off winning the GTE AM title in WEC. Eastwood's WEC results are impressive.

Why this car will not win: Ninth in qualifying is good, but not great. Eastwood has run primarily Aston Martin machines since 2018. Mantella is lacking GT3 experience and hasn't raced anything GT related since 2017.

What to expect for the full season: Varrone is enough to make sure this entry finishes ahead of the other AWA Corvette. I feel more confident the #17 Corvette ends up on the podium or steals a victory than the #13 Corvette.

#21 AF Corse Ferrari 296 GT3
Drivers: Simon Mann, François Heriau, Miguel Molina, Kei Cozzolino

Why this car could win: Molina had a good first season in the Ferrari Hypercar and he has plenty of GT experience. Mann has been a regular in WEC and IMSA the last few years. Cozzolino is an Asian Le Mans Series GT champion and Heriau has plenty of endurance race experience.

Why this car will not win: Heriau and Cozzolino are making their Daytona debuts and Mann is not a strong amateur driver compared to others in the class.

What to expect for the full season: This will be an Endurance Cup entry.

#023 Triarsi Competizione Ferrari 296 GT3
Drivers: Onofrio Triarsi, Charles Scardina, Riccardo Agostini, Alessio Rovera

Why this car could win: Scardina Triarsi and Rovera raced the IMSA Endurance Cup last year. Rovera won in WEC and ELMS last year. Agostini had a good season in International GT Open.

Why this car will not win: While qualifying eighth in class, it wasn't even one of the top three Ferraris. I don't think it has the depth to compete for a class victory.

What to expect for the full season: This will be an Endurance Cup entry.

#27 Heart of Racing Team Aston Martin Vantage GT3 Evo
Drivers: Roman De Angelis, Zachary Robichon, Ian James, Marco Sørensen

Why this car could win: This car won the class at Daytona last year and the only chance is Robichon, a past GTD champion and one of the 2022 24 Hours of Daytona GTD winners, joining the entry in place of Darren Turner. Robichon also won the ELMS GT championship in 2023. De Angelis and Sørensen were second in the GTD championship last year

Why this car will not win: The Aston Martins do not appear to have the same speed as last year.  

What to expect for the full season: De Angelis and Sorensen were a distant second last year but they were the clear second best team in 2023. De Angelis has finished third, first and second in GTD the last three years. This entry should be up there again, and with Paul Miller Racing now in GTD Pro, the #27 Aston Martin is the favorite entering the season.

#32 Korthoff/Preston Motorsports Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Mikaël Grenier, Mike Skeen, Kenton Koch, Maximilian Götz

Why this car could win: Grenier, Skeen and Koch won the Endurance Cup championship in GTD last year and Götz makes this an unchanged lineup form 2023. Skeen and Grenier have finished on the podium in this class in recent years. Koch won in Prototype Challenge in 2016.

Why this car will not win: Though this car won the Endurance Cup title last year, its best endurance race result was sixth at Petit Le Mans. It was kind of a fluky title.  

What to expect for the full season: Skeen and Grenier were third in two races last year and had eight finishes outside the top ten in 11 races. They were seventh in the championship. Seventh again might be as good as it gets.

#34 Conquest Racing Ferrari 296 GT3
Drivers: Manny Franco, Albert Costa, Alessandro Balzan, Cédric Sbirrazzuoli

Why this car could win: A surprise in qualifying, Conquest ended up sixth in class. Balzan is a two-time GTD champion while Costa is coming over after success in GT World Challenge Europe and he had a good year in LMP2 last year driving for Inter Europol Competition in WEC. Franco and Balzan drove together in GT World Challenge America and swept the Road America weekend. Sbirrazzuoli has also done well in the GTWCE pro-am classes.

Why this car will not win: Franco will be making his Daytona debut. Sbirrazzuoli's only Daytona start was in 2017. Balzan has not been a regular competitor in recent years.   

What to expect for the full season: Conquest is moving to IMSA from GT World Challenge America. Costa is a good driver, but Franco is taking a plunge into stiffer competition. Top five in the championship is unlikely. Maybe championship top ten could be too much.

#43 Andretti Motorsports Porsche 911 GT3 R (992)
Drivers: Jarett Andretti, Gabby Chaves, Scott Hargrove, Thomas Preining

Why this car could win: Chaves has won in LMP3 and Michelin Pilot Challenge while having strong runs in prototype. Hargrove was a top driver in IMSA Porsche GT3 Cup Challenge Canada and USA. Preining is coming off the DTM championship. This will be Andretti's fourth Daytona start. Andretti was the second fastest Porsche in class.

Why this car will not win: It was the second fastest Porsche and 12th in class. Andretti is not at the level of the other three drivers.  

What to expect for the full season: Andretti and Chaves were not competitive in their three-race sample of GTD last year. I think it will be tough for this team to break into the top five of races let alone get on the podium and possibly win.

#44 Magnus Racing Aston Martin Vantage GT3 Evo
Drivers: John Potter, Andy Lally, Spencer Pumpelly, Nicki Thiim

Why this car could win: Magnus Racing has been runner-up in class the last two years and in three of the last four 24 Hours of Daytona. 

Why this car will not win: Magnus Racing has not won since Lime Rock Park in 2016.  

What to expect for the full season: Potter and Lally are back to full-time. Results should be respectable, enough to finish in the top ten of the championship. That winless drought has a chance of coming to an end.

#45 Wayne Taylor Racing with Andretti Lamborghini Huracán GT3 EVO2
Drivers: Kyle Marcelli, Danny Formal, Graham Doyle, Ashton Harrison

Why this car could win: Marcelli and Formal dominated the Lamborghini Super Trofeo North America championship last year. Those two and Harrison raced together in the endurance races last year driving an Acura. Doyle was second in the Lamborghini Super Trofeo LB Cup championship last year. This car will start fourth.

Why this car will not win: It does not feel like the depth matches some of the other cars in this class.   

What to expect for the full season: This is a different zip code than Lamborghini Super Trofeo, but Marcelli and Formal's familiarity is their greatest strength. This could be the sleeper for the season and turn some heads.

#47 Cetilar Racing Ferrari 296 GT3
Drivers: Roberto Lacorte, Giorgio Sernagiotto, Antonio Fuoco, Eddie Cheever III

Why this car could win: Fuoco is coming off a standout season in WEC's Hypercar class. Fucoco, Lacorte and Sernagiotto ran for the Endurance Cup last year. Cheever III won the International GT Open Pro-Am championship and the Bronze Cup championship in the GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup.

Why this car will not win: Cetilar failed to finish better than 13th last year in its four IMSA races.  

What to expect for the full season: This will be an Endurance Cup entry. 

#55 Proton Competition Ford Mustang GT3
Drivers: Ryan Hardwick, Dennis Olsen, Giammarco Levorato, Corey Lewis

Why this car could win: Hardwick has won in GTD, as has Lewis. Olsen is moving over after some success with Porsche. Levorato won multiple times and finished second in the ELMS GT championship.

Why this car will not win: Ford did not have the pace in qualifying. Everyone is new to the car and Levorato is making his Daytona debut.   

What to expect for the full season: We are not sure how many races this car will run in IMSA. It should have similar issues as the Ford Multimatic Motorsports Mustangs in GTD Pro.

#57 Winward Racing Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Russell Ward, Philip Ellis, Indy Dontje, Daniel Morad

Why this car could win: Winward Racing has won this race before, with three of these drivers as well in 2023. Between racing in IMSA and in Europe, the Winward drivers all know each other and there are no surprises in this group.

Why this car will not win: The Mercedes-AMG were not particularly strong in qualifying and Winward will roll off from 17th in GTD.  

What to expect for the full season: Winward went from fifth in the championship in 2022 to tenth in 2023. Results should be better than last year. Winward won at Indianapolis and was third at VIR, but it finished ninth or worse in eight of the other nine races. There should be a few more top five finishes this year.

#66 Gradient Racing Acura NSX GT3
Drivers: Sheena Monk, Katherine Legge, Tatiana Calderón, Stevan McAleer

Why this car could win: Monk and Legge are back for a second season together. They were fourth in this race last year. Legge is a past champion in GTD. McAleer was the GT World Challenge America champion last year. 

Why this car will not win: Calderón spent last year competing in ELMS' LMP2 class and this is a new car for her. Legge and Monk could not quite get on the podium last year.  

What to expect for the full season: A battle to make the championship top ten that could see the #66 Acura fall short once again after being ten points off of tenth in 2023.

#70 Inception Racing McLaren 720S GT3 EVO
Drivers: Brendan Iribe, Frederik Schandorff, Ollie Millroy, Tom Gamble

Why this car could win: Iribe, Schandorff and Millroy were third in class last year. Iribe and Schandorff had two runner-up finishes last year. Gamble has won in LMP3 and LMP2 in ELMS, and he won the Gold Cup class at the 24 Hours of Spa last year.

Why this car will not win: Gamble only ran four races last year. Qualifying tenth in class, I am not sure it can stand above the rest. 

What to expect for the full season: Iribe and Schandorff had three podium finishes last year. Sixth in the championship was likely better than they expected. Finishing sixth again might sound disappointing but with the size of this class it shouldn't be.

#78 Forte Racing Lamborghini Huracán GT3 EVO2
Drivers: Misha Goikhberg, Loris Spinelli, Devlin DeFrancesco, Sandy Mitchell

Why this car could win: Forte Racing took a stunning victory at Petit Le Mans to close out the 2023 season. Spinelli and Goikhberg ended up fifth in the GTD championship. DeFrancesco won in LMP2 at Daytona two years ago. Mitchell has been a regular winner in the British GT Championship. 

Why this car will not win: It seems unlikely it will follow up ending 2023 with a victory by starting 2024 with a victory.  

What to expect for the full season: Finishing second and first in the final two races, along with four top five finishes in the final five events lifted the #78 Lamborghini from tenth in the championship to fifth. I don't think the results will ebb and flow as much as they did in 2023. It could be more consistent but lead to a dip in the championship standings.

#80 Lone Star Racing Mercedes-AMG GT3
Drivers: Rui Andrade, Scott Andrews, Adam Christodoulou, Salih Yoluç

Why this car could win: Andrade is coming off the LMP2 championship in WEC. Andrews has won at Daytona before, he won in LMP3 in 2021. Yoluç has been a dependable amateur driver, winning in WEC and ELMS. Christodoulou competed in GT World Challenge America last year and was the 2009 Star Mazda champion. 

Why this car will not win: This group was put together late in the game, and it was 20th in class in qualifying. Andrade has never raced a GT car before. Christodoulou is making his first Daytona appearance since 2011.  

What to expect for the full season: This will be an Endurance Cup entry.

#83 Iron Dames Lamborghini Huracán GT3 EVO2
Drivers: Rahel Frey, Michelle Gatting, Sarah Bovy, Doriane Pin

Why this car could win: Iron Dames was second in the GTE Am championship in WEC last year with a victory in the season finale. Pin had a podium in LMP2 and she has been signed for the Mercedes Junior Team and will compete in F1 Academy later this year.

Why this car will not win: Iron Dames didn't finish in the top ten in any of its four starts last year, and the #83 Lamborghini qualified 13th in class for Daytona.  

What to expect for the full season: This will be an Endurance Cup entry.

#86 MDK Motorsports Porsche 911 GT3 R (992)
Drivers: Kerong Li, Andres Fjordbach, Larry ten Voorde, Klaus Bachler

Why this car could win: Starting a stunning second in class, Bachler had a great season last year driving for Pfaff Motorsports. Ten Voorde has been outstanding in Porsche SuperCup the last four seasons with two championships and two vice-championships. Fjordbach has plenty of endurance racing experience in LMP2. Li made his Daytona debut last year.

Why this car will not win: Li is still rather unproven. This will be ten Voorde's first 24 Hours of Daytona as well.

What to expect for the full season: Keep expectations low. MDK is full-time for the first time. Li raced in Lamborghini Super Trofeo Europe's amateur class last year. There are going to be some tough days for this team.

#92 KellyMoss with Riley Porsche 911 GT3 R (992)
Drivers: David Brule, Alec Udell, Trent Hindman, Julien Andlauer

Why this car could win: Udell and Andlauer had good results last year, standing the podium three times together and having four top five finishes in five starts together. Hindman is a past GTD champion and has always been competitive in this class.

Why this car will not win: Brule had an accident in practice and kept the team from qualifying. KellyMoss may have to switch to a spare car. Brule is one of the weaker amateurs in this class.

What to expect for the full season: At the moment, all we know about this entry is its plans for Daytona.

#96 Turner Motosport BMW M4 GT3
Drivers: Robby Foley, Patrick Gallagher, Jake Walker, Jens Klingmann

Why this car could win: Foley has finished in the GTD championship top five in each of the last five seasons. Foley and Gallagher had three podium finishes together last season. Klingmann won with Turner not so long ago. Walker was sixth in the 2023 Lamborghini Super Trofeo North America Pro championship.

Why this car will not win: Walker is stepping into his first major endurance race, and Turner has never finished on the podium at Daytona in the GTD class let aloe won the class.  

What to expect for the full season: Foley and Gallagher were fourth in the championship last year after three runner-up finishes but no victories. It was feast or famine for these two. five top five finishes, four finishes of 12th or worse. Results should not be that fluid. Turner should also win a race.

#120 Wright Motorsports Porsche 911 GT3 R (992)
Drivers: Adam Adelson, Elliott Skeer, Jan Heylen, Frédéric Makowiecki

Why this car could win: Heylen has a good record at Daytona and Makowiecki has done well here. Adelson and Skeer were second in the GT World Challenge America Pro-Am class last year with six victories in 13 races and finishing 17 points behind Colin Braun and George Kurtz.

Why this car will not win: Adelson and Skeer are making big step forward into IMSA. Heylen and Makowiecki can only do so much. Plus, this car has the distraction of being a prop for a film. 

What to expect for the full season: Wright Motorsports does not have full-time aspirations for 2024, but could contest a handful of races this season.

IMSA will be on track for practice on Thursday January 25 at 10:05 a.m. ET for 90 minutes. There will be a second session at 2:10 p.m. that will last an hour and 45 minutes. Night practice will take place for 90 minutes starting at 6:35 p.m. ET. The final practice session will be a one-hour session at 11:20 a.m. ET o Friday January 26.

The 62nd 24 Hours of Daytona will begin at 1:40 p.m. on Sunday January 27.


Monday, January 22, 2024

Musings From the Weekend: Winter Slog

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Carlos Sainz became the oldest Dakar Rally winner at 61 years old, winning in the car class. American Ricky Brabec won in the bike class for the second time. The final stage did not go everyone's way. The #31 Whelen Cadillac will be on pole position for the 24 Hours of Daytona as Pipo Derani broke the track record with a lap of 92.656 seconds. There was a ceremony in Charlotte. It rained in San Diego. MotoGP teams are unveiling liveries. A lot of small things are on my mind. 

Winter Slog
There is not much to speak about in January. It is rather dull. Most series are still in hibernation. I could force some evergreen topic into the conversation because there is nothing going on, but I am going to save those for a later date. There were a few things that happened in the last few days that are worth our attention.

Opening the Gates
You shouldn't get credit for what you are supposed to do. That is the case with NASCAR after what was another needless mental lapse by the sanctioning body. With the release of the format for this year's Clash at the Coliseum, we learned the heat races would move to Saturday evening while the last chance qualifier and main event would remain on Sunday. What we also learned was he Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum would not be opened to spectators on Saturday. 

This immediately was met with backlash and, before the week was over, not only did NASCAR announce it would reverse its decision but it decided Saturday would be free admission. 

I don't know why or how NASCAR thought holding a televised event behind closed doors would be a good thing. I cannot fathom how that was the strategy from the start. Moving the heat races to Saturday created a two-day show, and NASCAR’s first thought was it shouldn't open the gates for the first day of it. 

It is nonsensical. NASCAR spends a few million dollars to turn the Coliseum into a racetrack. If it is using the track, it should be seeking to draw a crowd. It is another chance to reap some return on its investment. It is staggering when NASCAR first decided to make the Clash a two-day show, it didn't just make general admission $20 for Saturday. 

The Saturday would be a better way to engage spectators coming out. It could be a chance to hold a large autograph session or Q&A session or give people a chance to meet the drivers and see the cars up close. The place isn't going to be filled, but if 10,000 people come out and receive a pleasant experience watching races and meeting drivers, it is worth it. 

NASCAR doesn't get any credit for doing something that should have been done from the start. The gates should have always been open and we shouldn't be having this conversation to begin with. NASCAR failing to capitalize on the additional day of action at the Coliseum is a colossal failure.

At Least One Thing is Consistent
The response to NASCAR allowing spectators on Saturday was overwhelmingly positive. There was a thread of the Internet (Twitter) that still found a negative in what NASCAR was doing. Again, NASCAR doesn't deserve any credit and should be rightfully criticized, however, the ridiculous reasons people constructed why opening up Saturday was a bad thing was absurd. 

Some people are never going to be happy. However, it wasn't only NASCAR fans expressing unreasonable displeasure. 

On Saturday afternoon, when Supercross was sharing photos of a muddy track as rain fell ahead of the San Diego round, most bemoaned the conditions, dreading another muddy race after the conditions in San Francisco showcased survival skills more than sheer racing ability. The experts, of course, had a number of suggestions. Starting the season outside California, only racing in domes, etc. 

People know the Supercross officials cannot control the weather, right? Supercross has been spending January in California for 50 years. Sometimes it will rain, sometimes it will not, most of the time it will not rain. This year, Supercross caught two consecutive wet weekends. San Diego turned out to be not nearly as bad as San Francisco, but the weather is a part of Supercross racing, the same way the weather is a part of all forms of motorsports.

The mud might slow down a race, but it is a great equalizer. It is a different condition a rider must master. It can be tricky and frustrating to watch, but it is part of it, and it isn't every weekend. There might be two or three wet weekends each seasons. Something like San Francisco only happens once every few seasons. It is ok. We will all live. 

However, if there is one thing we can count it is people being irrational on social media.

Let's Make a Deal
Every year we joke about how basically the entire IndyCar grid is at the 24 Hours of Daytona, and that is even closer to being accurate this year.

Fourteen of the 25 announced IndyCar regulars for the 2024 season are entered in the 24 Hours of Daytona. I have written about this before, and it is worth mentioning again, IndyCar should figure out how to schedule its season opener at Daytona alongside the 24 Hours of Daytona. 

It obviously would not work during the 24 Hours of Daytona race weekend, but this weekend during the Roar Before the 24 test is practical. 

One, most of the drivers are there. Two, it is a test for IMSA, they can make time. Three, they can find space for the paddock. Four, there is an opening in the schedule for this race.

It has been over four months since an IndyCar race, and the next one is still just under 50 days away. IndyCar should be desperate to get on track. This is IMSA's weekend, and there are many IMSA series competing, but adding IndyCar isn't going overboard.

IndyCar could use the entire week to get ready. The Wednesday and Thursday could be the final IndyCar test. There could be an IndyCar practice session Friday among the IMSA activities, qualifying could be early Saturday, and then IndyCar could race at noon on Sunday. 

That would be a full weekend for Daytona. The Roar already gets a good crowd, and the chance to see IndyCar race at Daytona would only bring more people out. Daytona could bring out people for multiple weekends and also draw people who are not going to the 24 hours, but will come out for an IndyCar race. 

Along with getting a race early in the year, IndyCar would get to race somewhere notable and compete on a track that has long thought to be an impractical location. It would be a big win for IndyCar, and a chance to stand out a month before NASCAR starts. 

The Roar weekend can be maneuvered to make this work. Qualifying for the 24 Hours of Daytona can return to the Thursday before the race. Nobody is interested in qualifying being six days before the race. Let it be a test with no consequences. IMSA can get the bulk of Friday and Saturday. There is plenty of time for the VP Racing SportsCar Challenge races. The big series and Michelin Pilot Challenge can get track time. Come Sunday, finish up the testing, tie in the IndyCar race and have it be the big send off before coming back for the endurance race. 

For IndyCar, this Sunday is a sneaky good time to get a race in. Football season is still in swing, but with the NFL Divisional Round games starting at 3:05 p.m. and 6:40 p.m. ET, there is a window in the early afternoon open for a race. IndyCar could start at noon and be done by 2:00 p.m. and not interfere with any football.

NBC took advantage of the window this year and showed women's basketball with Caitlin Clark and Iowa facing Ohio State. That led into NBC showing the Tampa Bay vs. Detroit playoff game. It doesn't always work out that NBC has the 3:05 p.m. Sunday game during the Divisional Round, but regardless if NBC is showing it, the noon window is there for IndyCar. It could put its foot in the ground and decide that is when it is going to start its season. If it can do it at Daytona, a notable track, even better. That is a promotable event. People know what Daytona is and a race there is a big deal. 

It gets IndyCar back into action after months away. It springboards IndyCar into running races earlier in the year and making the most of ending before summer is even over. This is what IndyCar should want, and Roger Penske should not be afraid to negotiate with IMSA and Daytona to make this happen. IndyCar has nothing to lose. The drivers are already there. Why not have them show off doing their regular jobs?

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Carlos Sainz and Ricky Brabec, but did you know...

Other Dakar Rally Winners:

Cristiana Gutiérrez won in the Challenger (T3) class after American Mitch Guthrie lost over 41 minutes on the final stage.

Xavier de Soultrait won in SSV (T4) by two minutes and 25 seconds over Jéróme de Sadeleer.

Manuel Andújar won in the Quad class, Andújar's second Dakar victory, by seven minutes and 59 seconds over Alexandre Giroud.

Martin Macík won in the Truck class, his first Dakar victory.

Aaron Plessinger won the Supercross race from San Diego, his first career 450cc victory. Nate Thrasher won in the 250 class.

Coming Up This Weekend
24 Hours of Daytona
Formula E's doubleheader in Diriyah.
Supercross returns to Anaheim, the first triple crown event.
Rallye Monte-Carlo


Friday, January 19, 2024

2024 IndyCar Team Preview: Ed Carpenter Racing

And now we are down to 51 days until the 2024 IndyCar Series season opener from St. Petersburg. St. Petersburg has not been kind to the Ed Carpenter Racing organization. ECR has never finished better than sixth in the race. In 12 years visiting St. Petersburg, ECR has failed to have a top ten finisher in nine of those trips. It might not be where ECR wants to open the season, but it will the team's first chance, as with everyone else in IndyCar, to start the year on a positive note. There is always an opportunity to turn fortunes around.

At First Glance... Again, this is fine... it isn't, but it is fine
It is an IndyCar team lineup. Two cars, a veteran entering his fifth year while being paired with a rookie competing in a vast majority of the season. It is not unheard of, and for Ed Carpenter Racing, it is rather common. But it lacks excitement for a team that has not had much to be excited about in recent seasons. 

ECR feels stale and it is reverting to stale decisions. After two seasons with Ed Carpenter running all the ovals in a third ECR entry, the team is returning to Carpenter running the oval races in the #20 Chevrolet while another driver will run the road and street courses. In 2024, it will be Christian Rasmussen, the reigning Indy Lights champion who also won titles in Indy Pro 2000 and U.S. F2000.

Rasmussen doesn't need the kiddy glove treatment. He doesn't need to be babied into oval races. With two seasons of Indy Lights and a notable improvement from year one to year two, Rasmussen is deserving of a full-time role. The road/street course driver at ECR is beneath him. He will get the Indianapolis 500, but the Dane deserves a full season. 

This is ECR's decision, and a backward one at that. For eight seasons, Carpenter was sharing the #20 Chevrolet with someone. Outside of the first year in 2014, when it produced three race victory with Carpenter and Mike Conway and the #20 entry ended up eighth in the entrants' championship, it has not been a smashing success for the team. It has limited the organization. The team feels stunted when at one time it felt on the verge of breaking into the upper tier of IndyCar.

ECR hasn't had a top ten championship driver in seven seasons. Its only championship top ten driver has been Josef Newgarden. Rinus VeeKay felt like a driver with great potential. The Dutchman is on the verge of stalling out. VeeKay has finished 14th, 12th, 12th and 14th in the championship in four seasons. Last year was the first time he has failed to have a podium finish and failed to have a top five finish. 

There is no reason to believe ECR will be better than it was in 2023. Rasmussen could have a few flashy days, but rhythm will be broken at some point. In the Chevrolet camp, Team Penske is still Team Penske. McLaren isn't going to fall off. A.J. Foyt Racing now has a technical partnership with Team Penske. This isn't even taking into consideration Chip Ganassi Racing, Andretti Autosport and Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, three teams that all won in 2024. 

At best, ECR is placed sixth out of the ten IndyCar teams, but ECR should be more concerned about those behind than thinking it can catch those ahead.

2023 Ed Carpenter Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 6th (Portland)
Poles: 0
Best Start: 2nd (Indianapolis)
Championship Finishes: 14th (Rinus VeeKay), 25th (Conor Daly), 26th (Ryan Hunter-Reay), 30th (Ed Carpenter)

Christian Rasmussen - #20 GuyCare Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
5.3214: Average finish in 28 Indy Lights starts

15.5: Average field size in Rasmussen's 28 Indy Lights starts

39.9: Average number of IndyCar starts for the last 20 Indy Lights champions

What does a championship season look like for him?
In the last four seasons, all of which did not have double points in the season finale, and last season did not have double points for the Indianapolis 500, the average points total for the champion has been 575.5 points. 

For Rasmussen to reach that total over 12 starts, he will have to average 47.958 points per start. Essentially, Rasmussen would have to win every one of his starts to win the championship. I think if he started hot and won the first five races to open the season, which would include the Indianapolis 500. ECR would have a re-think and have Rasmussen in the car full-time to ease his championship chance. 

It is worth pondering how good would Rasmussen have to be to start his season for ECR to call an audible and keep him full-time. 

What does a realistic season look like for him?
Considering Marcus Armstrong won Rookie of the Year last year with a near-identical schedule, it is possible, but it is not likely as the 2024 rookie class includes Linus Lundqvist. Second best among the rookies is possible for Rasmussen, but it will be difficult to manage. 

Any top ten finishes would be appreciated, but the goal should be three or four top ten results. That is a quarter to a third of his results. It would be a massive improvement on where this car was the prior two seasons. With enough good results, he could challenge for top twenty in the championship, but that will likely require him being close to flawless over his 12 starts. 

It is ECR. Rasmussen will have off days, whether he likes it or not. There will be a day or two where he makes a mistake. If he is ahead of any of the full-time rookies it will be a good season. 

Ed Carpenter - #20 GuyCare Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
14.0555: Average finish in 54 starts since the start of the 2014 season

14.4: Average championship finish in oval points since the 2014 season

11: Consecutive starts without a top ten finish, Carpenter's longest drought since the final three races of 2004 and the first eight races of 2005.

What does a championship season look like for him?
Running only the oval races is not going to win Carpenter the drivers' championship, but what must Carpenter do to have the #20 Chevrolet win the entrants' championship? The best the #20 Chevrolet has finished in the entrants' championship was eighth in 2014, the first year of the experiment. The best Carpenter has finished in oval points since 2014 is sixth. 

Sixth obviously isn't going to be good enough. 

It will likely require the best season of Carpenter's career. At least two victories, at least four podium finishes and every finish in the top five. If Carpenter can score 238 points in his six starts, he would need Rasmussen to average around 28.125 points per race, which would be right around a sixth-place finish. That is likely asking too much for Rasmussen to accomplish. 

What is a feasible number for Rasmussen to achieve? It pays 19 points for 11th. That isn't great, but more practical than the Dane finishing sixth every start. Eleven times finishing 11th with no bonus points would net Rasmussen 209 points. If Carpenter was to win all six of his starts with the maximum points, including the extra bonus points for Indianapolis 500 qualifying, combined with Rasmussen's 209 points, the #20 Chevrolet would have 544 points. That could be enough to win the entrants' championship. It could also finish just short. It would likely put the #20 Chevrolet no worse than third.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
When we arrive at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway in May, we will be pushing three years since Ed Carpenter's most recent top ten finish. In the years he does well, he is sixth or seventh in oval points. No seriously, that is where he finishes, sixth in 2014, 2018-19 and seventh in 2021.

As for the other six years, 19th (2015), 21st (2016), 11th (2017), 23rd (2020), 20th (2022), and 25th (2023).

You cannot sugarcoat any of those years as good (ok, maybe 2017). For a guy that is pegged as an oval ringer, he is either feast or famine, and it is usually a devastating famine. I don't see Carpenter ending up with three top ten finishes and a top five mixed in there. The struggle is going to continue to get top ten finishes. 

He is terrible at Iowa. He is even more dreadful at Gateway where he has an average finish of 18th, and he has finished 20th or worse in six of eight starts, including in five consecutive races. His average finish at Milwaukee is 12.636 and he has never finished in the top five there. Five of the six oval races take place at those tracks. 

If Carpenter is lucky, he is in the top fifteen in oval points. Maybe he has one great oval race that boosts his numbers, but that's the only hope. 

Rinus VeeKay - #21 RiskOn International Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
14.706: Average finishing position in 2023, the worst of his IndyCar career

15.353: Average starting position in 2023, the worst of his IndyCar career

15: Races finished in 2023, the most of his IndyCar career

What does a championship season look like for him?
VeeKay repeating the first seven races of his 2021 season, a victory, two podium finishes, six top ten finishes, but instead of falling off the map as he does every season when we enter the summer, VeeKay does not drop off.

He does pick up more top five finishes as we get into July. Iowa is a big weekend as ECR comes out strong, VeeKay wins one of the races and finishes in the top five in the other, and he leaves with the most points scored from the weekend. 

After a respectable Toronto, the team does not fall off due to the Olympic break. VeeKay is on the podium in all three races between Gateway and Milwaukee, using the ovals to his favor, and at least one of those is a victory. He caps off the season on the podium and that is enough to win the championship.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
The previous four seasons tells us what to expect: 12th or 14th. I guess 13th is in play as well. 

VeeKay has shown speed every year at Indianapolis. He doesn't quite close out the races. Some of that is on him. He has made some bad mistakes at Indianapolis. If he can avoid that one mistake, it should allow him to be in contention come the closing laps. But problems exist away from the Speedway.

He hasn't had a top ten finish on a street course since he was sixth at St. Petersburg in 2022. He has never had a top ten finish at Laguna Seca, Nashville, Toronto, Road America and Long Beach. He hasn't had a top ten finish at Gateway since his rookie season in 2020. His average finish in six Iowa starts is 15.8333. 

VeeKay doesn't have a top ten finish in a third of the tracks on the schedule and at seven of the tracks, he has a combined three top ten finishes. 

That isn't good. VeeKay has also been in IndyCar for four years. This isn't one or two bad years thing. This is a pattern. 

We shouldn't think he can get eight to ten top ten finishes because we know that isn't realistic based on the form he has shown. Adding Milwaukee likely isn't advantageous for VeeKay. It will likely be another place where he will struggle. 

At some point, you no longer are mediocre. At some point, it will be worse. This is setting up to be the toughest season yet for ECR.

The first round of the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series season will be the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg on March 10. Coverage will begin at noon on NBC and Peacock.



Wednesday, January 17, 2024

2024 IndyCar Team Preview: Meyer Shank Racing

Fifty-three days separate us from the IndyCar season opener from St. Petersburg. Some teams want to start the season to pick up where they left off. Other teams will want to start the season to change perceptions. Meyer Shank Racing falls in the latter group. MSR has been on a slump for over a year and a half. After hitting it big in May 2021, it has been all downhill since. A championship winning team in sports cars, MSR can't buy a top ten finish in IndyCar. With the sports car program on hiatus in 2024, all attention will be on IndyCar, and there is a need to succeed.

At First Glance... Meyer Shank Racing is in need of a leader, and it doesn't have one
Meyer Shank Racing is coming off a season where it had an average starting position of 18.617 and an average finish of 18.647. When the 2024 season begins, it will have been 343 days since its most recent top ten finish, the longest drought in IndyCar; 666 days since its most recent top five finish, the longest drought in IndyCar; and 1,015 days since its first and so far only victory, not the longest drought in IndyCar but long enough to feel like eternity. 

After such results, it is understandable that a team would make a change, looking for new life and hope in new drivers. What a team needs is a leader, and it doesn't feel like MSR even has that. 

That isn't meant as any disrespect to Felix Rosenqvist, a veteran of five IndyCar seasons, a past rookie of the year with a race victory to his name, but in his first 79 IndyCar starts he has only one victory, which came 58 starts ago. He stood on the podium twice last year, but he has only six trips to the rostrum in his career. He has 15 top five finishes and his top ten finish percentage is at 44.3% despite having driven for Chip Ganassi Racing and McLaren. 

Rosenqvist has always been a number two driver in IndyCar, understandably so when he first joined Ganassi with Scott Dixon leading the way and the same is true when he moved to McLaren, which had found its number one driver with Patricio O'Ward. At Meyer Shank Racing, all eyes will turn to Rosenqvist for first word about setup and feel and directions on where they should go. In IndyCar, it is a position he has yet to be in.

It is a position where MSR must be sure it is being led in the right direction. The team must turnaround results and return to a more consistent state of competitiveness. It cannot afford to toil around at the back of the grid anymore. A veteran driver with pedigree is what MSR needed after the last season and a half. Rosenqvist has experience, but he has yet to establish if he is someone who can score surefire results. He will have to be it in 2024.

Whom MSR could have used was Simon Pagenaud. Pagenaud fit the description in 2022 when MSR expanded to two cars. Pagenaud was struggling prior to his Mid-Ohio accident last year, which has left the Frenchman out of competition indefinitely. What cannot be ignored is the start of Pagenaud's run at MSR. In his first ten starts he had a podium, six top ten finishes, his average finish was 10.1, he was tenth in the championship and had been as high as eighth. 

It is unclear what happened in July 2022, but MSR fell off the planet returning from Toronto that year. 

This could be the breakout chance Rosenqvist was waiting for and likely needed. Pushed into the number one role, it could be a chance for the Swede to take charge after always being at least second in line in his first two stops. MSR can be his team and the attention could allow him to flourish. He is really MSR's only choice. 

As much love as Tom Blomqvist has been given and for all his success in the sports car world, some of which came driving for MSR, this is a mighty jump up for him in a program that is uncertain about its competitiveness. Blomqvist's cameo appearances in 2023 did not go well, not all of that was Blomqvist's fault, but he is a driver pushing a decade since he last drove an internal combustion powered single-seater. Not everyone is Robert Wickens and can pick it up like riding a bicycle, nor is everyone Scott McLaughlin and take to IndyCar like a duck to water after a lifetime in tintops. Jimmie Johnson won seven NASCAR Cup championships and yet Johnson struggled to just remain on the lead lap in IndyCar. 

For Blomqvist, he will be treading water. For Rosenqvist, he must carry the weight and prove himself in a new role.

2023 Meyer Shank Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 10th (Texas)
Poles: 0
Best Start: 8th (Detroit, Iowa II)
Championship Finishes: 18th (Hélio Castroneves), 28th (Simon Pagenaud), 31st (Linus Lundqvist), 34th (Tom Blomqvist)

Felix Rosenqvist - #60 AutoNation/Sirius XM Honda
Numbers to Remember:
21: Times Rosenqvist has been the top finisher within an intra-team battle over his first 79 starts

8.7647: Average starting position in 2023, fifth best in IndyCar

14.471: Average finishing position in 2023, 13th best in IndyCar

What does a championship season look like for him?
It starts with Rosenqvist showing off the street course form he was long celebrated for prior to his arrival in IndyCar. It starts with a head-turning St. Petersburg victory followed by another impressive Long Beach victory. Two races, two victories, over 100 points just like that. 

Off the back of that start, Rosenqvist drives smart, bringing the car home in the top ten, getting a top five result occasionally when the car isn't quite at that level. He doesn't have an accident in the Indianapolis 500, but he does get a top ten finish. Though he is in the top ten, it doesn't feel like he is a threat, until he wins at Detroit and has three victories in seven races. 

It is all about running respectably everywhere else and taking top ten finishes when he can get them. What happens at Toronto? He wins. He will lose points elsewhere, but not in devastating totals. He is able to hold serve with good results. How is the championship season capped off? With a victory in Nashville, naturally.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
Rosenqvist could bring MSR back into the top fifteen in the championship. Top ten is a stretch. Rosenqvist's longest streak of consecutive top ten finishes is four. He is not a driver that has ever gone on long runs of good results. At best, we are looking at three races on, one race off. At that rate, Rosenqvist could do something special and perform well above expectations. No one envisions him getting 12 top ten finishes this season. 

It is more likely Rosenqvist ends up with six to eight top ten finish, at best. This team had one top ten finish all 2023. Expecting a six-fold improvement is asking for a lot. The bad days should remain and considering Rosenqvist's oval track record, we will not see the Swede contending at Iowa, Gateway and Milwaukee. Any finish in the top half of the field would be a good day. 

There will be stretches where MSR is not mentioned. It will have its rough patches, but Rosenqvist could have a few breakthrough days.

Tom Blomqvist - #66 AutoNation/Arctic Wolf Honda
Numbers to Remember:
3: Average finish in 19 starts in DPi/GTP competition in IMSA

15.2: Average finish in 23 Formula E starts

83: Formula Three races Blomqvist and Rosenqvist competed in against one another between 2012 and 2014

What does a championship season look like for him?
In a late reversal of its decision to delay the introduction of the hybrid system to IndyCar, the series decides the hybrid system is pertinent for the 2024 season, so it decides to adopt the tried and trusted LMDh cars and IndyCar becomes a series of 15 Acura ARX-06s and 12 Cadillac V-Series.Rs. 

This late change plays directly in Blomqvist's favor and with a year's worth of experience in the Acura, he thrashes the championship. Everyone is playing catchup. Blomqvist ends up winning ten of 17 races and takes one of the most lopsided championships in IndyCar history.

What does a realistic season look like for him?
Many races where Blomqvist is struggling to crack the top twenty. He should be more comfortable after an offseason adjusting to the car and have a few competitive sessions, but MSR's shortcomings will be rather difficult to overcome. There will be races where he cannot quite find the pace and be trudging along at the back. 

Top ten results feel out of reach. It will require many things going into Blomqvist's favor. Pure pace alone will not be enough. If there are a few races where he is around the top fifteen on speed, it gets him in the ballpark to crack the top ten through strategy or attrition. That will be his best hope this season. 

The ovals will be eye-opening. The good news is Indianapolis is the only big oval. He will not have to experience Texas where he is fighting to catch his breath and losing chunks of time. It will still be exhausting at Iowa, and the tire wear will make that the longest weekend of his season. He can mostly stay out of the way at Gateway and Milwaukee while running in the final third of the field. 

A few top fifteen finishes would be a good season, somewhere around three to five would be a good start. It will be a battle for Blomqvist to finish third out of the four rookie drivers, keeping in mind Ed Carpenter Racing's Christian Rasmussen is contesting only 12 of 17 races.

The first round of the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series season will be the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg on March 10. Coverage will begin at noon on NBC and Peacock.