Four-hundred and forty-four days after Simon Pagenaud took the checkered flag to win the 103rd Indianapolis 500, practice for the 104th Indianapolis 500 will finally begin. This year's race comes in the middle of August with six races, three ovals and three road course races, in the bag including two doubleheaders.
This year's Indianapolis 500 occurs much later than any other edition of the race. With this pandemic, this year's race will feel a little different. We are likely only going to see 33 entries, meaning no bumping. There are some notable names we are used to seeing as one-offs not at the Speedway this year, but we are looking at eight past Indianapolis 500 winners in the race, the most since the record-setting ten in 1992.
Three practice days will give us an idea who will be competing for the Fast Nine and pole position, who will be early favorites for victory and who will be fighting from behind. This preview sets the stages and takes into consideration important trends to set our expectations.
What is the Schedule?
Practice begins on Wednesday August 12 at 11:00 a.m. ET and running until 5:30 p.m. ET. The first two hours on Wednesday will be for veterans with the rookie orientation and refresher practice taking place at 1:00 p.m. and running until 3:00 p.m. The final two and a half hours will be open to every car.
Thursday and Friday will have practices from 11:00 a.m. ET to 5:30 p.m. ET.
On Saturday August 15, the field will be split in half and each will get a 30-minute practice session. Group one will go at 8:30 a.m. ET and group two will follow at 9:00 a.m. ET
The first qualifying session to determine the Fast Nine will start at 11:00 a.m. ET and will run through 4:50 p.m. ET.
The Fast Nine participants will each have a 30-minute practice session on Sunday morning at 11:00 a.m. ET. The Fast Nine will begin at 1:15 p.m. ET.
After the field is set, a two-and-a-half-hour practice session will be held for the 33 qualifiers, beginning at 3:30 p.m. ET.
What is the forecast?
With the race occurring in the middle of summer instead of the later part of spring, August sets up for different conditions compared to May, however, it appears the conditions will not be that unusual.
Wednesday calls for a high of 86º F with a low of 66º F and a chance of precipitation at 10%. Thursday has a 20% chance of precipitation with the high dropping a degree and the low dropping two degrees. Chances of precipitation remains 20% on Friday with a high of 87º F and a low of 68º F.
Saturday qualifying has scattered thunderstorms forecasted for the late afternoon with chance of precipitation at 40%. The high will be 86º F and the low will be 69º F. Showers remain in the forecast for Sunday. The chance of precipitation is at 40% with the high dropping to 85º F and the low at 65º F.
Looking further into the future, race day forecast is currently a high of 80º F with a low of 62º F with a 40% chance of precipitation in the morning increasing to 80% for the evening. Green flag is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET, the latest scheduled start time in event history. However, we are still 12 days away from the race and the forecast for that day will likely change over the next week.
Who will participate in Rookie Orientation and the Refresher?
All four drivers registered as rookies for the 2020 NTT IndyCar Series season will have to complete rookie orientation. Those drivers are Oliver Askew, Rinus VeeKay, Álex Palou and Dalton Kellett. Patricio O'Ward will also have to complete rookie orientation because he did not qualify for last year's race.
Fernando Alonso leads the drivers that will get a shot at the refresher program. Another notable refresher participant will be three-time Indianapolis 500 winner Hélio Castroneves. James Hinchcliffe will also be eligible for the refresher since Hinchcliffe is not a full-time driver in 2020. Tony Kanaan will also get the same opportunity to compete in the refresher since Kanaan is not full-time as well.
Spencer Pigot will also get a shot in the #45 Honda for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing with Citrone/Buhl Autosport. Dreyer & Reinbold Racing's two drivers of Sage Karam and J.R. Hildebrand will be allowed to participate. Max Chilton should be allowed on track for the refresher considering Chilton has not been on an oval since last May at Indianapolis. James Davison will get a chance at the refresher in his entry with Dale Coyne Racing in partnership with Rick Ware Racing. DragonSpeed's sophomore driver Ben Hanley also qualifies for the refresher.
Who is not there?
A few notable names are not on the Indianapolis 500 entry list this year.
For the first time since 2010, Oriol Servià is not entered for the Indianapolis 500. Servià's 11 Indianapolis 500 starts are the second most for a European driver behind only Arie Luyendyk. His 11 starts have come with KV Racing, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, Newman/Haas Racing, Dreyer & Reinbold Racing, Schmidt Peterson Motorsports and Scuderia Corsa in partnership with RLLR.
Pippa Mann had entered the last seven Indianapolis 500s and that streak will come to an end. Mann had qualified for six of those seven races, missing the 2018 race. Her debut was in 2011. Last year, Mann was 16th and completed all 500 miles, her best finish and the first time she went the distance. This will be the first Indianapolis 500 without a female driver on the grid since 1999 and this is the first year since 1991 that no female driver was on the entry list.
Sébastien Bourdais had entered every Indianapolis 500 in the DW12-era, but this year the four-time champion will not be on track attempting to make the race. Bourdais had made the Fast Nine the last two years. His best finish was seventh in 2014.
Ed Jones had respectable results in his first three Indianapolis 500 starts, but Jones will not be back for a fourth start in 2020. Jones was the top rookie finisher in 2017, finishing third for Dale Coyne Racing behind Takuma Sato and Hélio Castroneves. His sophomore year did not go well with Chip Ganassi Racing, but he rebounded in 2019, qualifying fourth with Ed Carpenter Racing after regularly being at the top of the time sheets in practice. He ended 13th in last year's race.
After being the darling of the Last Row Shootout last year, knocking Fernando Alonso and McLaren out of the race, Kyle Kaiser and Juncos Racing will remain sidelined for 2020. In Kaiser's two starts, he completed 110 laps and 71 laps respectively, retiring from a mechanical issue in 2018 and an accident last year.
Other drivers not returning from last year are Matheus Leist and Jordan King. Leist had completed all 500 miles in both his Indianapolis 500 starts. King made his Indianapolis 500 debut last year, finishing two laps down in 24th. Two-time Indianapolis 500 starter Stefan Wilson was also working on a deal to return to the track for the first time since 2018.
What trends should we know for the Fast Nine and the race?
Since 2016, only twice has a driver that topped a no tow report in practice during practice week and not made the Fast Nine. Ryan Hunter-Reay did it in 2017 and Tony Kanaan did it in 2018. On both occasions, those drivers started tenth.
Last year, three of the four drivers to top a practice day made the Fast Nine with Conor Daly, who topped Fast Friday, being the lone driver to miss it and Daly started 11th. Will Power, Josef Newgarden and Ed Jones made it, but none of those three started on the front row, with Jones being the best starting fourth. Since 2015, of the 14 drivers that topped a no tow report and made the Fast Nine, six have started on row one, six have started on row two and two started on row three, including Alexander Rossi, who started ninth last year.
Simon Pagenaud won pole position after being second, 15th, tenth and seventh over the four practice days.
In the DW12-era, only two of eight Indianapolis 500 winners were not in the top five for any practice days ahead of qualifying. The best Tony Kanaan was in practice in 2013 was seventh and that was on opening day. Juan Pablo Montoya's best practice day was sixth on Thursday. Only once in last eight years has the Indianapolis 500 winner topped a practice session in the practice week. That was Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2014, who topped the Monday practice before qualifying.
Only once in the last eight years has an Indianapolis 500 winner not been in the top ten for multiple practice days. In 2018, Power was 19th, 21st, 13th and fifth over the four practice days.
Since the creation of the Fast Nine session in 2010, Team Penske has put at least one car in the session every year and it has had at least three cars in the Fast Nine in three of the last four years. A total 23 Penske cars have taken part in a Fast Nine session, the most of any team.
Andretti Autosport has the second most Fast Nine appearances with 19. However, after putting at least three cars in the session from 2012 to 2017, it has had only one participant over the last two years.
Ed Carpenter Racing has put at least one car on the front row in six of the last seven years with the exception being 2015 when the Fast Nine was not held. ECR has put multiple cars in the Fast Nine the last three years.
Chip Ganassi Racing has the fourth most appearances, but at only seven appearances, Ganassi has failed to put a car in the top nine in five of the nine years the session has been held.
The most different teams in the Fast Nine was seven in 2011. The fewest teams was three in 2013. Thirty-two different drivers have participated in the Fast Nine and every year there has been at least one driver making a Fast Nine debut.
Power has made all nine Fast Nine sessions with Ed Carpenter having made seven appearances. Hélio Castroneves and Josef Newgarden are the only other drivers to have run in majority of the Fast Nine sessions at six and five appearances, respectively.
Chevrolet has dominated Fast Nine qualifying, taking 44 of a possibly 63 spots in the seven years of engine competition. It has had majority of the participants in five of seven years, including a sweep of the top nine in 2013, taking eight spots in 2012 and taking seven spots in 2014 and 2018.
In the two years Honda had the most participants, it won pole position with a Chevrolet in second and three other Hondas taking up the remaining spots in the top five. In the five years Chevrolet won pole position, it has at least swept the top four while sweeping the top six in three years.
What trends should we know for bumping?
Well, we probably will not have bumping. It looks more and more likely the 104th Indianapolis 500 will only have 33 entries, mostly because of the financial conditions during this pandemic. If there is no bumping, it will be the fifth time since 2012 no car has failed to qualify for the race.
In the unlikely case a 34th entry materializes, it will be the third consecutive year of bumping. In each of the previous two years, multiple cars have failed to make the 500-mile race.
Michel Jourdain, Jr., Buddy Lazier, Pippa Mann, James Hinchcliffe, Fernando Alonso, Patricio O'Ward and Max Chilton are the drivers bumped during the DW12-era.
In 2013, Jourdain was in the bottom three in all six practice days he participated in. Lazier was slowest in all four practice sessions he ran in 2015. Mann was outside the top thirty in three of her four practice sessions two years later with her best practice result being 25th. Hinchcliffe started well in practice, ending up 13th of 23 cars on day one, but he dropped to 25th the next day and was 29th, 31st and 29th over the next three days.
Last year, Alonso was 32nd, 29th and 24th in the three practice sessions he ran, missing Thursday practice because of an accident on Wednesday and waiting for the spare car to get a paint job. O'Ward was 22nd and 23rd, but he had an accident on Thursday, and he dropped to 34th in Friday practice. Chilton's practice speeds were mostly toward the bottom of the charts all week. He started off 27th and 30th before jumping to 15th on Thursday. He would drop to 33rd on Friday.
When it comes to teams that are constantly in bubble trouble, Arrow McLaren SP leads the way. AMSP has had at least one car struggling to get in the field in three of the last four bumping occasions. In 2013, Katherine Legge was the 33rd qualifier, but Legge was a late addition to the entry list and made it with some comfort over Jourdain. We remember 2018 for James Hinchcliffe infamously missing the race and last year, Hinchcliffe was in the Last Row Shootout, ending Saturday in 32nd and retaining 32nd on Sunday.
A.J. Foyt Racing has been on the right side of the line every bumping year, but in three of the four years we have seen bumping, Foyt has had a car get in by the skin of its teeth. Conor Daly and Jack Hawksworth were each on the final row in 2013 and 2015, respectively. In 2018, James Davison ended Saturday in 33rd. Last year, Mann was the 30th qualifier on Saturday, assuring she would not have to participate in the Last Row Shootout driving for Clauson-Marshall Racing, which ran with assistance from A.J. Foyt Racing.
Dale Coyne Racing has been in the precarious situation more times than it would like. In 2013, Ana Beatriz and Mann were 29th and 30th. In 2018, Daly made the field driving for the team, but Mann was the first car on the outside.
Can anyone step up against Team Penske and Andretti Autosport?
Lost over the last few years, especially during a pandemic with an Indianapolis 500 held in August, is the fact two teams have won the last six Indianapolis 500s.
Team Penske and Andretti Autosport have each won three Indianapolis 500s in the last six years with six different drivers. In the last six Indianapolis 500s, the teams have combined to lead 705 laps, 58.75% of all laps run. The two teams have taken 18 of the possible 30 top five finishes since 2014 and 31 of 60 top ten finishers.
Chip Ganassi Racing, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, Ed Carpenter Racing and Dale Coyne Racing are responsible for the remaining 12 top five finishes over the last six years. Ganassi leads the way with seven, ECR and RLLR each have two and Coyne had one.
The last team other than Penske and Andretti to win the Indianapolis 500 was KV Racing in 2013. Before that, Ganassi had won three of the previous five years.
Ganassi has won four of the first six races in 2020, its most victories through this point in a season since Jimmy Vasser opened the 1996 season with four victories in six races with the fourth victory being the U.S. 500.
In the DW12-era, Penske has won 19 of 47 oval races with Andretti next with 11 victories. Since 2017, Penske has won 13 of 19 oval races. Andretti has not won any of the last nine oval races and has only won three of the last 24 oval races. Ganassi has seven oval victories, but the team has never won multiple oval races in a season during the DW12-era and Dixon won the Texas season opener.
Eight different teams have won an oval race since 2012. The only of those eight teams not active is KV Racing. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing and Ed Carpenter Racing each have three oval victories. Dale Coyne Racing and Arrow McLaren SP each have one oval victory.
A.J. Foyt Racing has not won an oval race since Airton Daré won at Kansas in 2002. Tony Kanaan has ten top ten finishes in 18 Indianapolis 500 starts. Kanaan has five top five finishes and six top ten finishes in his last nine Indianapolis 500 starts. Teammate Charlie Kimball has two top five finishes in this race.
Carlin enters Indianapolis off the heels of oval success. Conor Daly picked up the team's first pole position at Iowa and finished eighth. Daly was sixth in the Texas season opener and sixth at Gateway last year. Max Chilton has not run an oval since Gateway 2018. He has completed 598 out of 600 laps in his three Indianapolis 500 starts with the best result of his IndyCar career being fourth in the 2017 Indianapolis 500.
Dreyer & Reinbold Racing will have two cars on the grid again, each for Sage Karam and J.R. Hildebrand. The team has not had a top ten finish since Karam finished ninth in the 2014 Indianapolis 500. It has not had a top five since São Paulo 2013 with Oriol Servià. Its last top five finish on an oval was fourth at Milwaukee in 2012 with Servià. The team's last podium finish was second at Long Beach with Justin Wilson in 2010. Its last podium finish on an oval was the 2001 season finale at Texas when Robbie Buhl finished third. The team's only victory was its first race with Buhl at Orlando in 2000.
Meyer Shank Racing is back for its fourth Indianapolis 500 attempt. Jack Harvey remains the team's driver after running piloting MSR's entry in its first three Indianapolis 500s. This will only be the team's 24th start in IndyCar and it picked up its first two oval top ten finishes at Iowa last month when Harvey was seventh in each race.
Of the 11 teams fielding a car in this year's race, Arrow McLaren SP, Dale Coyne Racing, Ed Carpenter Racing, Dreyer & Reinbold Racing, Carlin and DragonSpeed have never won the Indianapolis 500.
Fifty-seven teams have won the Indianapolis 500 with 19 teams having multiple victories.
