I said yesterday, after Andretti topped day one that it felt like we were waiting for it to go wrong. We have seen plenty of Andretti family promise only for something to ruin the mood. Today was only pole day, but for the first time all season, for the first time in years, Marco Andretti was the legitimate favorite on speed. Andretti is kind of viewed as a joke, and most of the time wrongfully so. He has never been woefully slow or a hazard, he just isn't his grandfather or father. He hasn't been a regular race winner or champion. Because of that, he is open for easy shots from people.
For a large swarm of people, seeing Marco Andretti fall short of pole position after topping the two days leading into the pole position session would give them more ammunition to fire at the guy just for fun. It allows for another week of potshots. Andretti coming through, winning pole position, silences them, but only for a week.
This was only pole position. Andretti knows that. The entire team knows that. But pole position carries a lot of emotion for a driver with his heritage. At 19 years old, he was a couple hundred feet away from ridding his family of a 36-year-old hex and lost it a way only fitting of another Andretti defeat. Today was the family's biggest victory since 1969. This was bigger than when his grandfather won pole position in 1987 because of what followed his grandfather in the race, another defeat only fitting for an Andretti.
This only adds pressure onto Andretti, but he has a fast car and that should calm him. For the next week, Andretti just has to breathe, and put the race out of his mind. He cannot fret about what next Sunday will bring. He must rely on his team, on strategist Bryan Herta, who has won this race twice from the pit stand, and relax. He knows the weight hanging around his neck. He cannot let it weigh him down.
2. Scott Dixon nearly pulled this out and it would have been earned. Dixon worked history to get the car to a place to challenge for pole position. Conditions may have been in his factor and gave him an extra spot or two further up the grid, but he fell 0.017 MPH or 0.0113 seconds short of his fourth Indianapolis 500 pole position.
Despite falling short, Dixon makes a big gain today. He picked up eight points for qualifying second and none of the other four drivers in the top five of the championship made the Fast Nine. That is a bonus Dixon didn't need, but he will take it, and he is setting himself up for a large swing in his favor with another successful Indianapolis 500. This is the only double points event in 2020 season. This year's finale, wherever or whenever it is will not be double points. If Dixon scores big in the lone double points race he will lock this championship up before the finale and no one would dismiss it because Dixon would deserve it.
3. The big gainer on the day was Takuma Sato, leaping from ninth on Saturday to third, his best Indianapolis 500 starting position. I think there was some benefit being the first qualifier. Sato's time today was close to level with what he did on Saturday. If Sato's car is that balance, I think he will be up front all race next week.
4. Rinus VeeKay ended up fourth with another strong run and as the only Chevrolet in the Fast Nine. Ed Carpenter Racing's front row streak ends but the team will take fourth with its rookie driver. The one issue for VeeKay and ECR is the team has not always transferred that qualifying speed to race results. Ed Carpenter has done well, but last year Ed Jones qualified fourth and was not a factor. Spencer Pigot topped Saturday last year, ended up third on the grid but dropped outside the top ten like Jones. VeeKay was quick today, but we need to question whether he can keep that up.
5. We are celebrating Marco Andretti but this was nearly an embarrassment for Andretti Autosport. It took the top four times yesterday and going into its final qualifier it could have failed to put a single car on the front row. Ryan Hunter-Reay ended up fifth and think Hunter-Reay and his Andretti Autosport teammates got the track as the conditions turned against the drivers. The wind direction changed and Dixon got the track at a more optimal time.
Hunter-Reay started well but kept losing time. I think his car is good, fifth is good and he will have the pace in the race.
6. Considering James Hinchcliffe is not full-time and in his last two Indianapolis 500 he failed to qualify and started 32nd, I think he will take sixth, a two-spot drop from yesterday, and not complain. Hinchcliffe has looked good all week. He is another Andretti one-off to step in and blend in, which is great for him and I think the rest of the team.
7. Álex Palou had the fastest lap of the Fast Nine session. Palou's first lap was 231.901 MPH and then the bottom fell out. He suffered a weightjacker problem and instead of ending up with a four-lap average near 231, he was at 229.676 MPH after his final two laps were in the 228 MPH range.
This was still a good run and Palou has looked great. VeeKay has been great but I am more impressed with Palou, who did this with Dale Coyne Racing after never running an oval prior to this year. VeeKay had a handful of oval races under his belt and he ran the Freedom 100 last year. In my book, Palou is the slim leader for Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year heading into the race.
8. Graham Rahal was eighth on Saturday and eighth on Sunday. Rahal didn't have the same balance as his teammate Sato. That is a disappointing, especially when Sato ended up on the front row. Rahal is starting in a good spot. It will require a little work to get to the front, but a smart race will have at the front in no time.
9. I think Alexander Rossi got the worst track conditions today. I think the wind was against Rossi and it caught him out. He went from third on Saturday to ninth today and was holding on over his final two laps. We saw Rossi go from 32nd to fourth two years ago. He will be fine starting ninth, but he cannot afford pit lane errors this year and those have happened every year he has run the Indianapolis 500.
10. Just looking over the other eight rows really quick:
Colton Herta, Marcus Ericsson and Spencer Pigot is an interesting row four, two sophomores and a one-off. Herta barely missed out of the Fast Nine. I think he has the best car of these three but Ericsson made great strides over practice.
Josef Newgarden, Felix Rosenqvist and Patricio O'Ward are on row five and all three have been on the podium this season, two of which have won a race. I think Newgarden and Rosenqvist are not quite happy where they are at while O'Ward seems content.
An all-American row six with Ed Carpenter, Zach Veach and Conor Daly. I think Carpenter and Daly are not happy where they are starting and I wonder if that gets into their heads before the race. We have seen Carpenter run well when starting at the front. This year he is starting mid-pack and, going off what I said before, we have seen ECR cars drop from the front. These cars are already in the middle. Can they work their way forward?
Santino Ferrucci, Jack Harvey and Oliver Askew are on row seven. None of these three are screaming as a potential sleeper. Harvey showed practice speed but did not carry it over to qualifying. He could be the one heading forward of these three.
Will Power, Tony Kanaan and Dalton Kellett are on row eight. Power seems ambivalent. Kanaan is going through a farewell but it sounds like he will be back next year. Kellett is Kellett and he is the rookie happy to be there with his only goal to be complete 200 laps.
Last year's winner Simon Pagenaud is on row nine with Fernando Alonso and James Davison. I think there is a chance Davison is the best finisher of these three. Davison has gone forward in almost all of his Indianapolis 500 starts. When Pagenaud is off, he is off and this has been a rough year for him in qualifying, but most of the time he turns it around in the race. Alonso is going to experience a much different race than 2017.
Hélio Castroneves is lost in 28th. Charlie Kimball is 29th, which is harsh considering his practice speed. Max Chilton will start 30th and probably look to just complete all 200 laps.
It is nothing but one-offs on row 11 with Sage Karam ahead of JR Hildebrand and Ben Hanley. All these guys just hope to see the checkered flag.
11. It was sad not to have bumping, but after all that happened, all the concerns whether this race would occur and whether we would get 33 entries, I am glad we had a calm qualifying day. I could not afford to be itching for a cigarette today over bumping.
12. We get a few days over before of Carb Day, a much simpler and quieter Carb Day, and a week from today is an Indianapolis 500 like we have never seen before.
