It felt like Andretti was setting up to be fast on Friday and end up 13th on Saturday, missing out on the Fast Nine. Not only did Andretti avoid that, he put up a monster run in difficult conditions while many struggled in the heat.
It is exciting to see Andretti run well. Indianapolis is the one place his best comes out, but it is not a place absent of rough years. Last year, he started tenth and when it felt destined he would have a good day in his grandfather Mario's 50th anniversary tribute livery, he dropped like a rock and had arguably his worst Indianapolis 500.
Is it too good to be true? I am happy for Andretti and he is the clubhouse leader heading into the Fast Nine, but how is this going to go against him? We have seen it go against for him and we have seen it countless more times go wrong for his family at this facility. Just when it appears the Andretti family is bound for Indianapolis glory the rain falls on the parade and someone else gets to be the lucky duck.
I know that sounds negative and maybe that is conditioning that has to be broken but it has been over nine years since Marco Andretti won an IndyCar race. He has had plenty of races that got away from him. He is more than due but that doesn't mean Indianapolis will pay. Even if he doesn't get pole position tomorrow, he is setting up nicely for next week and he will still have a lot of work to do.
2. Andretti Autosport was dominant today, taking the top four spots with Andretti leading Ryan Hunter-Reay, Alexander Rossi and James Hinchcliffe.
No surprise Hunter-Reay was second. He was in the top three every day on the no tow report. His car has been quick and over the last seven years Hunter-Reay has been one of the best drivers at this place. Rossi again looks strong and he has never looked weak at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Hinchcliffe has all his eggs in this basket. This is Hinchcliffe's final race of 2020. This is a great chance to sell himself for 2021 and it is a great chance to put the qualifying demons of the last two years behind him.
I am not sure Andretti Autosport will sweep the front row tomorrow. That is asking a lot, but it has to be favorite to win the Indianapolis 500 pole position for only the third in team history.
3. Scott Dixon looks good as always and Dixon left the field with a warning shot. He made three additional attempts. His second attempt moved him from sixth to fifth. His final attempt was the final run of the day and Dixon's first lap was the fastest of the day. His qualifying run over three laps was still two-tenths of a mile per hour quicker than Andretti and then Dixon aborted the qualifying run.
Dixon has speed and he will be a threat for pole position. The Andretti top four made one attempt and then sat for the rest of the day. I am sure they have a little more, but Dixon was tweaking on things. He is prepared for Sunday. Do not be surprised if Dixon picks up his fourth Indianapolis 500 pole position.
4. Rinus VeeKay led the Chevrolets and it is a bit of a surprise. It is not a surprise that Ed Carpenter Racing put a car in the Fast Nine. It is a surprise that VeeKay is that driver and he is the only Chevrolet in the Fast Nine, especially after the pace Conor Daly showed all week.
This could be a sign of the qualifying draw. If Daly went out when VeeKay did, which was the fourth car on track, I think Daly is in the Fast Nine and if VeeKay went out when Daly as the 25th qualifier, I think VeeKay would have been middle of the field. Bravo on VeeKay putting that run together and keeping ECR's Fast Nine streak alive. Can he keep the front row streak alive for the team? That is a mighty ask.
It has to be frustrating for Daly because he was at the top of the charts for most of practice and he is stuck in 17th. Ed Carpenter hasn't shown that pace all week and his second qualifying attempt put him 16th. Chevrolet has not been this off at Indianapolis since returning in 2012.
5. Álex Palou has taken to Indianapolis Motor Speedway like a duck to water. Palou was in the top ten of all three practice days and he backed it up with seventh on Saturday. He is quietly impressing us. He has shown growing pains this year, but he is finding his footing as we saw with a podium finish at Road America and a pair of solid Iowa races for a driver with only one oval under his belt.
This result was a tad of a surprise because who would expect the Dale Coyne Racing rookie to make the Fast Nine after Craig Hampson and Michael Cannon left the team in the offseason? It is the beauty of IndyCar. Even Dale Coyne Racing can put the pieces together and end up in the top nine.
6. All of the Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing cars are equal, with Graham Rahal in eighth, Takuma Sato in ninth and Spencer Pigot in 12th with Colton Herta and Marcus Ericsson mixed in. It is good to see this success out of RLLR. It was a couple of years ago both cars were toward the bottom of the charts and this team struggled at Indianapolis. This is the strongest trio this team has brought to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
We haven't really seen the last cars into the Fast Nine make a giant leap to the front row. They mostly stick to row three or get onto row four. I am not sure RLLR has front row speed.
7. With the Fast Nine covered and the actual order of the first three rows to be set tomorrow, let's look over the final eight rows and 24 cars. Herta, Ericsson and Pigot all missed out by the slimmest of margins. Herta was the 30th qualifier. If he went out in the mid-teens, he probably would have made it five Andretti cars in the top five. Pigot looked great at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and since that weekend I was confident this team was prepared for the Indianapolis 500.
Ericsson made sizable gains over Friday and today and Ganassi's other Swede Felix Rosenqvist moved up to 14th. There is some pace in the other Ganassi cars.
8. Team Penske, oof... Josef Newgarden led the way in 13th with Will Power irritated in 22nd, Simon Pagenaud flustered in 25th and Hélio Castroneves perplexed into 28th.
This is the worst Penske has looked at Indianapolis since the team missed in 1995. None of the four cars showed Fast Nine pace after the team had always put one car in the Fast Nine. Power had never missed the Fast Nine today and for the last two days he has been curt saying the team and Chevrolet did not have the speed.
Don't be surprised if the team has race pace. This feels like it could be the reverse of 2012. In 2012, Chevrolets dominated qualifying and in the race the Hondas had the upper hand. This year, the Hondas have made a seismic leap from last year. Honda has the horsepower and through four days on track it appears to have the reliability as well. Unlike 2017, when Honda showed pace but kept having engines expire, Honda took eight of the top nine and we have yet to see an engine failure.
But maybe Honda loses this race on fuel mileage. Maybe Honda sacrificed the fuel mileage it had last year expecting another 14-lap sprint to the finish, which saw Pagenaud outmaneuver Rossi and take the victory. Maybe this year fuel mileage is the name of the game and Chevrolet have the legs down the stretch while the Hondas are coughing. We will find out on race day.
It would not be surprising if Team Penske climbed up the order and had one or two cars contending in the closing stages of the Indianapolis 500. This last week was disheartening, but if any team can find the race pace it is Penske. A lot of people liked how Pagenaud looked in practice. Penske isn't out of it because of one power qualifying weekend.
9. Arrow McLaren SP looked fine. None of the three cars were close to the top nine. Patricio O'Ward jumped up to 15th on a late attempt. Oliver Askew was 21st and Fernando Alonso made one run, qualified 26th and called it a day.
I don't think the third Indianapolis 500 attempt will the charm for Alonso. AMSP did have good practice pace and, before his accident, Alonso was a guy to keep an eye on. This year's race will be much different from 2017. He is not at the front. He is not with the big boys in clear air. He is mired in the pack with a dozen other drivers surrounding him who want to charge forward as well. The Triple Crown might be further away from Alonso than he initially thought coming into this weekend.
10. Quickly through the rest of the field: Zach Veach was 17th, which is good for him but off the other Andretti cars. Veach has been the slowest of the Andretti bunch. Santino Ferrucci has been in the middle of the field all week and he ended up 19th, almost dead center of the field.
The practice pace did not carry over for Jack Harvey and he was 20th. Harvey was an early qualifier as well. I am sure Meyer Shank Racing wanted better than 20th, but it has to look ahead to the race and the team had never qualified better than 25th before for this race. This is a nice move forward.
The pace didn't carry over for A.J. Foyt Racing. It didn't help that Kimball and Kanaan had late qualifying runs. Looking at their speeds, the timing might not have made a difference. Kanaan was 23rd, Dalton Kellett was 24th, so kudos to the Canadian and Charlie Kimball was 29th.
11. James Davison was looking good and then had to lift on his final two laps. Davison's second attempt wasn't any better and he ended up 27th.
Max Chilton got off the final row with his second qualifying run, but Chilton will start 30th and he still has a lot of work to do.
12. Dreyer & Reinbold Racing was off, and both its cars are on the last row, Sage Karam ahead of JR Hildebrand with Ben Hanley and DragonSpeed taking 33rd.
This should raise a red flag for both teams for for 2021. Last year, Karam was in the Last Row Shootout. If there was a Last Row Shootout this year, both D&R cars would be in it. DragonSpeed had a lot of things go against the team. Neither of the one-off operations are in a great position this year. This could just be a bad year that the pandemic isn't helping, and it didn't matter because there was no bumping. Or it could be a sign that these teams still have a lot of work to do.
It hurts that there is no Juncos Racing or Clauson-Marshall Racing this year. Perhaps both D&R and DragonSpeed would look better and this year they assume the positions of worst Indianapolis 500 only teams because they are the only Indianapolis 500 teams.
I am sure both these teams are disappointed and searching for more.
12. Proposed qualifying tweak: Unlimited attempts if you withdraw your time and take the "priority" lane. Two additional attempts if you do not withdraw your time and run the "fast" lane.
I don't think anyone withdrew a qualifying time today, and that is ok. This is a different time. If teams had to withdraw their teams, I think we would have seen five or six additional qualifying runs after everyone had made their first attempt. Five or six attempts over the final three hours of the day is not good.
However, if we are looking to add a little drama or risk then let's limit the number attempts. You can make an additional run and sit on your time, but you only get to do that twice. After that, you have to withdraw. I think Dixon was the only car to make four attempts, but it would have either forced him to stay in pit lane or complete that final run and take on the risk of crashing the car and going from being in the Fast Nine to starting 33rd.
13. Overall, not a lot of drama today. The track conditions are one of the main causes. It was difficult to find speed today with the heat and no happy hour. Qualifying ended before 5:00 p.m. Even if qualifying went another hour, I am not sure we would see great gains because of how hot it was today, but there would have been more takers.
14. This is a one-off... hopefully. We shouldn't have another Indianapolis 500 in August after this year... at least no one is planning on it. There is not much we can take from this year and apply to the future. Next year, if we are qualifying in May, we will not be looking at 88º F on a qualifying day.
15. On to tomorrow, the Fast Nine shootout and finalizing the eleven rows of three for the 104th Indianapolis 500.
