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| One practice remains before the Indianapolis 500 |
We are three days away from the 104th Indianapolis 500 after a 91-day delay. The seventh round of the 2020 NTT IndyCar Series season will see 33 drivers compete in the lone double points race on this year's calendar. The drivers have had four practice sessions ahead of the final session to tweaks the cars on Carb Day. Chevrolet leads the way with 17 entries to Honda's 16. There will be eight past Indianapolis 500 winners on the grid, the most since ten in the record-setting year of 1992. Five drivers will make their Indianapolis 500 debut. A dozen nationalities are represented on this year's grid. Marco Andretti enters off an emotional pole position last week while Honda showed its might, taking eight of the top nine spots and 11 of the top 12.
Carb Day Preview
The 33 teams will receive one more opportunity to tune their race cars ahead of the Indianapolis 500 on Carb Day. The two-hour practice begins at 11:00 a.m. ET and will run to 1:00 p.m. ET. However, the race will not start until 2:30 p.m. on the August 23, meaning none of Carb Day practice will overlap with scheduled race time.
We did have four days of practice last weekend between the three days ahead of qualifying and the post-Fast Nine practice session on Sunday, which ran from 4:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m.
Marco Andretti topped Sunday's practice session after winning pole position. Andretti has been in the top three of every practice leading up to this year's race. Another driver who has been in the top three of every practice session is Scott Dixon, with Dixon ending up third in the Sunday afternoon session despite having an accident on his second lap on track.
Ryan Hunter-Reay has been fourth in three of the four practice sessions, including the one on Sunday. Conor Daly and Álex Palou are the only other two drivers besides Andretti and Dixon to be in the top ten of every practice session. Daly was sixth on Sunday and Palou was tenth.
Many drivers had their best practice session on Sunday and a lot of those were Chevrolet drivers. Hélio Castroneves was second to Andretti. Castroneves had been tenth in opening practice but in the subsequent session dropped to 16th and 29th. Santino Ferrucci rounded out the top five on Sunday after his best practice session during the week was 19th on the opening day. Patricio O'Ward was eighth and Ed Carpenter was ninth and neither of two drivers had even cracked the top fifteen in the sessions preceding qualifying.
The other Fast Nine participants were spread out during the post-qualifying practice session on Sunday. Alexander Rossi was 12th and he only been in the top ten for one practice session so far. Rinus VeeKay was 19th, but VeeKay was only in the top fifteen on one practice day, 12th on Wednesday.
Takuma Sato was 26th. Sato had been second on Thursday and eighth on Friday. James Hinchcliffe dropped to 28th, his worst practice session of the week. Hinchcliffe topped the Wednesday session and was seventh on Friday. Graham Rahal was 30th on Sunday and Rahal had the worst practice results of the Fast Nine competitors leading up to qualifying. Rahal's best day was 14th on Friday.
In the last two years, Tony Kanaan has topped the Carb Day practice session. Kanaan was 11th, 14th, 24th and 22nd across the four session last week. In last year's Carb Day practice, Simon Pagenaud was 22nd, but Pagenaud had topped the Monday practice post-qualifying. Rossi was seventh on Carb Day last year and eventual third-place finisher Sato was third.
In 2018, the only top ten finishers that were in the top ten of Carb Day practice was race winner Will Power in seventh and Scott Dixon, who finished third in the race after being second on Carb Day.
In 2017, Castroneves and Sato were the top two on Carb Day and Sato ended up winning the race ahead of Castroneves. Kanaan was third in the practice session and finished fifth in the race.
The Championship Picture
Indianapolis is the only double points race on the 2020 calendar after it was decided the season finale would not be double points due to the fluid circumstances over the number of races and end date of this season.
As of now, either five races or seven races will remain after the 104th Indianapolis 500. This race will significantly alter the championship picture, who will be a contender down the stretch and who will affectively be eliminated.
Though he did not win pole position, Scott Dixon was the biggest winner from qualifying weekend. By qualifying second, Dixon picked up eight points. The only person he gave ground to in the championship fight, Marco Andretti, is 21st in the championship and all Dixon gave Andretti was one point. Andretti goes from 173 points behind Dixon to 172 points. Everyone else has lost ground.
None of the other four drivers in the top five of the championship made the Fast Nine, meaning none of them could at least soften the blow of Dixon qualifying second. Graham Rahal did it best, sixth in the championship and qualifying seventh, giving him three points and only losing five points to Dixon.
After qualifying, Dixon's championship lead over Simon Pagenaud is 57 points with Josef Newgarden 61 points back and Patricio O'Ward is 90 points back. Rahal's three points from qualifying lifts him ahead of Will Power, but Rahal is 107 points behind Dixon and Power is 110 points off the top.
Colton Herta failed to pick up any qualifying points and he is 112 points back. Marcus Ericsson is another driver with no points to show from qualifying weekend and Ericsson deficit to his Ganassi teammate is now 115 points. Felix Rosenqvist, another Ganassi driver, another driver not to make the Fast Nine, trails Dixon by 132 points. Alexander Rossi is the only other driver in the top ten of the championship to make the Fast Nine and he only picked up one points, meaning Rossi is now 133 points behind Dixon.
If there are only six races left in the championship, 373 points are left on the table, meaning no one is mathematically eliminated from the championship. If Mid-Ohio is rescheduled to September or October or those two races are made up at another track, 481 points remain available and door opens a little more for a challenger to slip in.
Regardless of however many races remain, everybody has to beat Dixon from here through the finale. No driver can afford an off day and they must start hoping Dixon falls off his game in one or two rounds. The only problem is Dixon does not appear to be on the verge of a collapse. Dixon is stronger than ever. He had one of his best Indianapolis 500 practice weeks ever and this car is one of the strongest he has ever had. The field is in trouble and it will require brute strength to wrestle this title out of Dixon's hands.
Oval Points
Overall championship aside for a second, Indianapolis marks the fourth of six scheduled oval races on the 2020 calendar.
Simon Pagenaud has scored the most points on an oval, 125 points, after finishes of second, first and fourth in the first three races. Pagenaud's Penske teammate Josef Newgarden is a point behind him with Newgarden having finishes of third, fifth and first and Newgarden has won two pole positions on ovals. Dixon is third in oval points, three behind Pagenaud with finishes of first, second and fifth.
Oliver Askew, Conor Daly and Patricio O'Ward are the next three drivers in oval points. Askew has 86 points after finishes of ninth, third and sixth in the three oval races. Along with the top three drivers, Askew is the only one with top ten finishes in every oval race this season. Conor Daly sits on 72 points with finishes of sixth and eighth in the first two races before dropping to 13th in the second Iowa event. Daly also took pole position for the first Iowa race. O'Ward is two points behind Daly. O'Ward was fourth at the first Iowa race and has finished second in his other two oval starts.
Will Power, Graham Rahal and Alexander Rossi are all tied on 67 points. Power was second in the second Iowa race but his other oval finishes were 13th and 21st. Rahal was third in that second Iowa race with his prior two oval finishes being 17th and 12th. Rossi has not scored a top five finish on an oval this season. He was sixth and eighth at Iowa, countering the 15th-place result at Texas.
Jack Harvey is a point behind Power, Rahal and Rossi. Harvey was seventh in both Iowa races after finishing 16th at Texas.
Marcus Ericsson had a pair of ninths at Iowa and a re-fueling issue at Texas cost him a top ten finish. Ericsson sits on 55 points, three ahead of Ed Carpenter, who was fifth at Texas but 15th and 23rd at the two Iowa races. Tony Kanaan has 51 points with a tenth at Texas being his best result. Zach Veach has 50 points, mostly from a fourth at Texas. He was 23rd and 20th at Iowa.
Colton Herta had a pair of 19ths at Iowa and his seventh-place finish at Texas gives him 48 points, one ahead of Ryan Hunter-Reay. Charlie Kimball has yet to score a top ten finish on an oval and has 46 points, two ahead of Indianapolis 500 pole-sitter Marco Andretti. Andretti was tenth at the second Iowa race.
Felix Rosenqvist and Álex Palou are tied on 42 points. Santino Ferrucci was fourth in oval points last year, but he is currently on 38 points with his best oval results being 13th in the first Iowa race. Takuma Sato missed Texas after a qualifying accident, and he has 33 points. Rinus VeeKay's best oval result is 17th and he has 31 points. James Hinchcliffe only contested Texas and has 12 points because of his 18th-place finish.
Five different drivers have been the top oval points earner in the last five season and all five drivers drove for Team Penske. In fact, Team Penske has had the top oval driver in every season since 2013. Hélio Castroneves began this streak before Juan Pablo Montoya was the top oval driver in 2014 and 2015. Since 2016, Newgarden, Castroneves, Power and Pagenaud have taken the honor in those respective seasons.
Scott Dixon was the top oval driver in 2011. Ryan Hunter-Reay took the honor along with the IndyCar championship in 2012. Hunter-Reay is the last champion to earn the most points on ovals that season.
Who Can Extend the Streak?
We have had nine different Indianapolis 500 winners in the last nine years. The longest stretch of different Indianapolis 500 winners is 12 from Jimmy Murphy in 1922 to Fred Frame in 1932 with a pair of co-winners in-between to provide the extra 12th winner in 11 years. There were also ten different winners in the first ten Indianapolis 500s. Those are the only two times we have had at least a decade of different winners.
The pole-sitter could extend that streak. Marco Andretti will be making his 15th Indianapolis 500 start and he has five top five finishes and eighth top ten finishes in the event. Andretti has not had a top five finish since he was third in 2014. That was also the last year he has led the race. Andretti's average finish in this race is 11.9285, slightly off his father Michael's 11.75 average finish in 16 starts.
Either Rinus VeeKay and Álex Palou could become the 11th rookie winner and fourth since the turn of the millennium. Both drivers are starting inside the top nine.
James Hinchcliffe and Graham Rahal are both veterans of this event and both are starting in the top nine. Rahal does have a 500-mile race victory coming at Fontana in 2015. Hinchcliffe has not had a top five finish in a 500-mile race since he was fifth at Fontana in 2014. In 15 starts in 500-mile races, the only other top five finish Hinchcliffe has was fourth at Fontana in 2013.
Colton Herta is one of three drivers who could become the youngest Indianapolis 500 winner this year along with VeeKay. Herta will start tenth and the entire fourth row could become a first-time Indianapolis 500 winner. Herta is the only one on row four with an IndyCar victory. Marcus Ericsson and Spencer Pigot each have a runner-up finish to their names but in both cases that is the only time either has stood on the podium.
Josef Newgarden is the lone Penske driver without an Indianapolis 500 victory. Felix Rosenqvist won his first career IndyCar race earlier this year at Road America. Patricio O'Ward is the third possible youngest winner in this field.
Ed Carpenter has finished in the top six the last two years at Indianapolis, but his average is 15.5625 in this race and he has never finished in the top ten of the Indianapolis 500 when starting outside the top ten. Zach Veach has yet to finish in the top twenty and he has yet to finish on the lead lap for the Indianapolis 500. Conor Daly was tenth last year in this race. Daly's only top five finish on an oval was fifth at Gateway in 2017.
Santino Ferrucci had four top ten finishes in five oval starts last year but Ferrucci has yet to get a top ten on an oval in 2020. Jack Harvey has yet to crack a top fifteen finish at Indianapolis. Oliver Askew has been one of the top oval drivers in 2020 and Askew won the Freedom 100 last year at Indianapolis.
Dalton Kellett is the lone non-winner on row eight. Kellett was the third-place finisher in the Freedom 100 for three consecutive years and he started on pole position for the race once. He has finished 21st, 20th and 20th in his first three IndyCar starts. James Davison has finished better than his starting position in four of his five Indianapolis 500 starts and last year Davison was 12th.
Charlie Kimball, Max Chilton, Sage Karam, J.R. Hildebrand and Ben Hanley are all non-Indianapolis 500 winners starting on the final two rows. All five are starting from positions that have never produced an Indianapolis 500 winner before.
Penske Fighting for 19
Ever since Roger Penske purchased Indianapolis Motor Speedway over nine months ago, we have been waiting for the first Indianapolis 500 under Penske's control. The man already holds the record for most victories and Penske's team has won the race the last two years.
The fight for Team Penske's 19th Indianapolis 500 victory appears much harder this year.
None of the teams fourth drivers qualified in the top ten, a first for the team since 2002. Hélio Castroneves qualified 28th, the worst qualifying position for a Team Penske entrant with the only time a Penske car starting worse than this being 1978 when Mario Andretti started 33rd after Mike Hiss qualified the car while Andretti ran the Belgian Grand Prix and won the race.
As stated above, Josef Newgarden is the lone Penske driver without an Indianapolis 500 victory and the two-time champion is the best starting Penske driver in this year's race, rolling off from 13th. Newgarden has two top five finishes and four top ten finishes in his last five Indianapolis 500 starts. He won the most recent IndyCar race at Iowa. He is currently third in the championship and he has been in the top five of the championship for 31 consecutive races.
Will Power rolls off from 22nd position. Power has finished third this season, but he has finished outside the top ten in the other four races this season. Prior to this, Power had started every race in the top eight. This is Power's worst starting position since the first Toronto race in 2014 where he started 23rd. This is only the fifth time Power has started outside the top twenty in his IndyCar career. Power has won a 500-mile race in four consecutive seasons. The longest streak of seasons with at least one 500-mile race victory. If he wins the Indianapolis 500 this year Power would be the fifth driver in IndyCar history with at least six 500-mile race victories joining A.J. Foyt, Al Unser and Rick Mears.
Simon Pagenaud's woeful qualifying continued at Indianapolis with the Frenchman ending up 25th. This will be the fourth consecutive race Pagenaud has started outside the top twenty. His average starting position is 19th with his previous worst full season being 11.6 in 2013. However, his average finish through six races is 5.8, on track for his second-best season behind only 2017 when his average finish was 5.3.
Hélio Castroneves has stated this will likely be his final Indianapolis 500 start with Team Penske and it is the worst starting position of his Indianapolis 500 career and it matches the worst starting position of his IndyCar career. However, Castroneves did win from 28th at Chicagoland in 2008. In 2011, he started 28th at Baltimore and finished 17th. In Castroneves' two years as a part-time driver, he has finished 27th and 18th in the Indianapolis 500.
Team Penske is looking to achieve three consecutive Indianapolis 500 victories for a team for only the third time in the event's history. Lou Moore won three consecutive races from 1947 to 1949 with Mauri Rose winning the first two and Bill Holland winning the third. Team Penske won from 2001 to 2003 with Hélio Castroneves taking the first two and Gil de Ferran taking the third.
Alonso's Triple Crown Attempt
After spending 2018 focusing on Formula One and the FIA World Endurance Championship and missing the race in 2019, Fernando Alonso's sophomore attempt at the Indianapolis 500 and completing the Motorsports Triple Crown comes in 2020, but under much different circumstances than his rookie year in 2017.
Alonso will start 21 positions worse than his rookie year with the Spaniard in 26th, between Pagenaud and
James Davison. This is done with Chevrolet power for the Arrow McLaren SP organization in a blue and white Ruoff Home Mortage sponsored universal aero kit shod Dallara instead of a rather brand-less papaya orange Honda aero kit.
Since Alonso last competed in the Indianapolis 500, he completed his time with McLaren in Formula One. He won the 24 Hours of Le Mans twice and the World Endurance Drivers' Championship with Sébastien Buemi and Kazuki Nakajima driving for Toyota. He won the 24 Hours of Daytona with Wayne Taylor Racing. Earlier this year, he competed in the Dakar Rally with Toyota, finishing 13th.
One other thing Alonso has done since his last Indianapolis 500 start, and more specifically in the last six weeks, is announce he will be returning to Renault for the 2021 Formula One season. It is a two-year contract with an option for the 2023 season.
The Renault deal means any future attempt at the Triple Crown, should he fail to achieve it this year, will have to wait until 2023 at the earliest but possibly even not occur until 2024. Alonso turned 39 years at the end of July. A return to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway would come in 2023 would come when Alonso he is 41 years old. Only 14 times has a driver 41 years or older won the Indianapolis 500. The last driver aged 41 or older to win the race was Arie Luyendyk in 1997.
Alonso has stated his desired to achieve the Triple Crown, joining Graham Hill as the only two men to win Indianapolis, Monaco and Le Mans, however, this could be his final attempt at the accomplishment. Alonso will lose two prime years at the Triple Crown and no one can predict where Alonso, IndyCar or the Indianapolis 500 will be at in 2023 and 2024. Alonso could win a few more grand prix and another world championship and decide that is enough for him. IndyCar could become tough to get into and Alonso could lose interest.
All we have is 2020. It could be now or never for Alonso. Any future plans remain unpredictable.
Road to Indy
Both Road to Indy series are back on track after nearly a month since each series contested a mid-week round at Mid-Ohio, over a week prior to the postponed IndyCar round. The two series will be at Indianapolis Raceway Park on Carb Night.
In Indy Pro 2000, there have been four different winners through the first five races and seven points cover the top four in the championship and the championship leader hasn't won race yet.
Andretti Autosport driver Devlin DeFrancesco has 107 points from the first five race and leads the championship with three podium finishes and four top five finishes. Juncos Racing's Sting Ray Robb picked up his first Indy Pro 2000 victory in the last race at Mid-Ohio and Robb sits one point back with three podium finishes and four top five finishes like DeFrancesco.
Danial Frost nipped DeFrancesco at the line at the Road America season opener by 0.0556 seconds. Frost had podium finishes in the first three races but he was eighth and 11th in the final two Mid-Ohio races and has dropped to third in the championship, six points back. Artem Petrov is the only repeat winner so far in 2020. Petrov won the second races at Road America and Mid-Ohio, but the Juncos Racing driver was 13th in race one from Road America and eighth in the final Mid-Ohio race. Petrov trails DeFrancesco by seven points.
Braden Eves won the first Mid-Ohio races, but wrapped up that weekend with a pair of ninth-place finishes. Eves is 13 points off the top spot. The 2020 season has not started the way Parker Thompson would have hoped. After finishes of 13th and 14th at Road America, Thompson rallied with finishes of third, fourth and fourth at Mid-Ohio, but Thompson is 35 points off his fellow Canadian DeFrancesco.
Manuel Sulaimán sits seventh in the championship on 68 points, two ahead of Hunter McElrea, who was runner-up in the final Mid-Ohio race. Colin Kaminsky is on 63 points with his best finish being third at Road America. Antoine Comeau rounds out the top ten on 57 points, two ahead of Moisés de la Vara and five ahead of Nate Aranda.
Five-time USAC Silver Crown champion Kody Swanson will make his Indy Pro 2000 debut. Swanson will drive for Legacy Autosport.
Kory Enders, Jacob Abel and Charles Finelli round out the Freedom 90 entry list.
The Freedom 90 will take place at 7:50 p.m. ET on Friday August 21.
Christian Rasmussen is taking no mercy in U.S. F2000.
The sophomore Dane has won all five races this season and he has scored 164 out of a possible 165 points. Michael d'Orlando is 67 points back in the championship and d'Orlando has two runner-up finishes. Eduardo Barrichello is the reason Rasmussen does not have a full 165 points with Barrichello taking a pole position at Mid-Ohio. The second-generation driver was second in that race he won pole position for and he sits on 90 points.
Reece Gold and Josh Green round out the top five with 85 points and 78 points respectively. Gold has finished on the podium in the last three races, while Green was on the podium in the first two races. Matt Round-Garrido is two points outside the top five. Round-Garrido had finished in the top five of the first four races with a 19th in the final Mid-Ohio race snapping that streak.
Christian Brooks is 99 points off his Jay Howard Driver Development teammate Rasmussen, seventh in the championship. Kyle Dupell is on 59 points, five ahead of Cameron Shields, who won the Freedom 75 last year. Yuven Sundaramoorthy rounds out the top ten on 53 points.
Nineteen cars are entered for the IRP round. The Freedom 75 will be at 6:45 p.m. ET on Friday August 21.
Fast Facts
This will be the 11th IndyCar race to take place on August 23 and first since Ryan Hunter-Reay won at Pocono in 2015.
This is the second Indianapolis 500 not to take place on Memorial Day weekend. The 1986 race was pushed to Saturday May 31 due to rain over three days.
This will be the 175th 500-mile race in IndyCar history.
A total of 98 drivers have won a 500-mile IndyCar race. Thirty-two drivers have won multiple 500-mile races.
Thirteen different nationalities have won a 500-mile race.
The United States has produced the most 500-mile race winners with 66. Brazil and the United Kingdom has each produced seven 500-mile race winners. Canada has had four, Italy and France have each had three winners. The Netherlands, Sweden, Mexico, Colombia, New Zealand, Australia and Japan have each produced one winner.
Chevrolet has won 12 of 18 500-mile races since 2012.
This is the first season with only one 500-mile race since 2011.
Six of the last nine Indianapolis 500s have been completed in under three hours. Only five of the first 87 Indianapolis 500s that went the distance were completed in under three hours.
This years grid features...
15 Americans.
Three Britons.
Two Swedes.
Two Canadians.
Two Spaniards.
Two Australian.
Two Brazilians.
One New Zealander.
One Japanese.
One Dutch.
One Mexican and...
One Frenchman.
Ed Carpenter, Josef Newgarden, Jack Harvey, Colton Herta or Oliver Askew could become the first driver to win the Freedom 100 and the Indianapolis 500.
Simon Pagenaud, Marco Andretti, Rinus VeeKay or Patricio O'Ward could join Alex Lloyd, Jack Harvey, Dean Stoneman, Will Power, Colton Herta and Scott Dixon as the only drivers to win both on the oval and road course at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Last year, Simon Pagenaud became the second driver to lead the most laps and win the Indianapolis 500 in the DW12-era. Ryan Hunter-Reay was the first to do it in 2014. Pagenaud also became the first driver to lead over 100 laps in the Indianapolis 500 in the DW12-era.
The average starting position for an Indianapolis 500 winner is 7.475 with a median of four.
On three occasions has the pole-sitter won the Indianapolis 500 in consecutive years. It first occurred in 1922 and 1923, then in 1979 through 1981 and 2008 and 2009.
The average number of lead changes in the Indianapolis 500 is 13.5436 with a median of ten.
The last eight Indianapolis 500s rank in the top eight most lead changes in Indianapolis 500 history.
Last year's race is tied for eighth with the 1960 race on 29 lead changes. The 1960 race held the record for most lead changes.
The average number of cautions in the Indianapolis 500 is 7.6688 with a median of eight. The average number of caution laps is 44.3111 laps with a median of 43 laps.
Last year's race had four cautions, the first race to have fewer than five cautions since 1990.
This will be the 71st Indianapolis 500 victory for Firestone.
This will be the 20th Indianapolis 500 victory for Dallara, extending Dallara's record for most Indianapolis 500 victories for a chassis manufacture.
If Honda wins the race, it will be the manufacture's 13th Indianapolis 500 victory, breaking a tie with Miller for second all-time.
If Chevrolet wins the race, it will make a three-way tie between Miller and Honda for second all-time on 12 Indianapolis 500 victories.
Chevrolet has won the last two years, and, in the DW12-era, no engine manufacture has won the Indianapolis 500 three consecutive years.
Possible Milestones:
Scott Dixon is one victory away from becoming the third driver in IndyCar history to reach 50 victories.
Scott Dixon needs to lead one lap to surpass Al Unser (5,802) for fifth all-time in laps led.
Ryan Hunter-Reay needs to lead 55 laps to reach the 1,600 laps led milestone.
Conor Daly needs to lead 28 laps to reach the 100 laps led milestone.
Felix Rosenqvist needs to lead 21 laps to reach the 100 laps led milestone.
Scott Dixon needs to lead one lap to surpass Al Unser (5,802) for fifth all-time in laps led.
Ryan Hunter-Reay needs to lead 55 laps to reach the 1,600 laps led milestone.
Conor Daly needs to lead 28 laps to reach the 100 laps led milestone.
Felix Rosenqvist needs to lead 21 laps to reach the 100 laps led milestone.
Predictions
My heart says Marco Andretti, but my head says Scott Dixon. At least two Team Penske drivers will finish in the top ten. Rinus VeeKay and Álex Palou both slide out of the top ten. Fernando Alonso will pull out a top ten finish and be the top finishing Arrow McLaren SP driver. The first retirement will not be any of the drivers starting on the final two rows. The last-place finisher will not be an American and there will not be more than four American drivers in the bottom eight spots. At least four Andretti drivers will lead a lap. The number of lead changes will be somewhere between 24 and 30. Jack Harvey and James Davison will each finish at least eight spots better than their starting position. Sleeper: Patricio O'Ward.
