1. With the green flag nature of this race, pit stops were important, and how cars cycled were going to determine this race. After spending most of yesterday in the middle of the field when pitting on the wrong side of caution, Josef Newgarden started at the front, stayed in touching distance of the lead and had a caution fall in his favor.
Newgarden didn't power to the front but kept the car in the top three or four. He remained in the fight and when the final round of pit stops came, he had a drag race exiting with Patricio O'Ward. Newgarden held the inside of the access lane and got ahead of O'Ward. Meanwhile, Will Power had been leading but caught traffic entering pit lane, costing him time. Newgarden and O'Ward jumped ahead of Power and that was it for the race.
Newgarden and O'Ward pulled away in the closing laps and O'Ward didn't have enough to make a run in the closing laps. Last week, Takuma Sato benefitted from a late caution. This week, Sato was the caution with four laps to go, and it sealed the victory for Newgarden. I didn't think O'Ward was going to make a push, but the caution allowed Newgarden an easier final four laps.
There is a reason why Newgarden is a two-time champion, and part of that reason is Tim Cindric, but another part of it is Newgarden's oval ability. Yesterday was an anomaly. It was not a good day, but how often do we see Newgarden not have a top ten car? It is rare. Today, things went his way. Newgarden is really the lone championship challenger for Scott Dixon. There is either three races to go or five races to go. If it is three, Newgarden has to sweep the races and get some help. If it is five, Newgarden still has to win most of the races and have a tiny bit of help. Newgarden will do all he can to defend his title.
2. I said Newgarden is the lone championship challenger, but Patricio O'Ward was second today, his third podium finish of the season and O'Ward is third in the championship. He hasn't finished worse than 12th this year.
O'Ward has a shot at the title but with Dixon on four victories and Newgarden on two victories, O'Ward will have to win a few races. Those two aren't going to slip up. O'Ward has looked great this year. We are out of ovals, but I think he could win one of the remaining three or five races. We could have two doubleheaders and O'Ward has been strong in doubleheaders.
Credit to Arrow McLaren SP as well because the pit stops have been great. That team has helped O'Ward be in this position.
3. Will Power is the angriest man on the podium every time. Power felt he was the best driver today and he has a point. He ran strong, led multiple times and prior to that final round of stops, he was keeping back O'Ward and Newgarden. Traffic was not on his side.
The anger is pushing asking for termination from Team Penske. Typically, drivers that question strategy at Team Penske and chew out the crew over the radio don't stick around long afterward. Power did that after his final stop. He was upset he didn't stop earlier and lost time. I get it, I don't think Penske is canning Power, but more than any other year Power has been irate, even on good days.
We have not seen Power happy one day this season. It has not been a great year for Power, but you would think a third-place finish, his third podium of the season would at least left him with a little smile. It hasn't.
4. The strategy worked yesterday, so Rinus VeeKay and Ed Carpenter Racing doubled down and got a fourth-place finish. VeeKay started 18th and was the first to stop. This jumped him into the top three. I was surprised no one else came earlier than VeeKay. He had climbed up to 12th before the first round of pit stops. After seeing what he did yesterday, I thought a driver between sixth and tenth should come around lap 45, just to get out of the pack and have clean air. I think if one of those guys in the back half of the top ten had done that he would have gotten the lead. VeeKay went from 12th to third! It was going to work.
VeeKay did make a confident pass on Colton Herta for fourth into turn three. VeeKay did chop down on Herta a little. I understand why Herta was upset, but it wasn't the worst move in the world.
5. Scott Dixon rounded out the top five and when Dixon enters with a 117-point lead, he can afford to finish third. His gap to Newgarden is down to 96 points. If there are three more races, Dixon is fine and could lock this up with two races to go. If there are five races to go, Dixon is still fine but there is more wind in Newgarden's sails. If there are five races, two of those, hopefully, will be at Mid-Ohio. Dixon is fine.
6. Colton Herta went long on his first two stints and it could have allowed Herta to go long on his final stint, stop with about 30 laps to go and have a sprint to the finish with less fuel and fresher tires. Instead, Herta stopped 44 laps from the finish and came out in fourth.
Traffic likely dictated that early stop. He could not afford to lose too much time. With how difficult it is to pass at Gateway, Herta could not go much longer. He might have ended up coming out in seventh or eighth or worse. But, after seeing what Takuma Sato did late yesterday, maybe Herta comes out in fourth or fifth and can chase and pass the leaders.
Newgarden caught traffic in the final 15 laps. If Herta had the tires, he might have been able to run him down. We will never know.
Herta was looking to replicate his first race finish for the fourth time in four doubleheaders, but he ran wide in turn one, it allowed VeeKay to make that run, VeeKay passed Herta and sent Herta up the track in turns three and four and Dixon took fifth. Herta coughed up some points, but not much. This could have been a better result, but this was still a good result.
7. Felix Rosenqvist quietly finished seventh, which after not having a top ten finish in Rosenqvist's prior three starts and after finishing eighth yesterday, I am sure he will take it. He has reset his best oval finish in the last two days. I think he wanted at least one top ten finish on an oval this year. He got two. I think that checks off one goal for this season for the Swede.
8. Conor Daly was eighth, but this was the best he was going to do. A good result and an encouraging result for Carlin. I don't think he can lose sight of what Daly did for Carlin this year. Five starts, four top ten finishes, a pole position and he led laps in two races. Carlin has speed. This was a tough year for the team with the second car not having the funding to run.
This team is ready to be a contender. It just needs to have the pieces fall in place. Maybe Daly can be full-time with this team next year. That would be a great start for the organization. Maybe Max Chilton moves to a second car to run road and street courses and Tony Kanaan gets it on ovals. I think Kanaan would take that deal.
9. Takuma Sato got high exiting turn two and ran against the wall. The contact didn't take a tire off, but it did cost Sato two positions. He was able to keep running and get a top ten but if this race had gone green, I am not sure Sato would have been able to make turn one.
Sato made a mistake and still finished ninth. When you're hot, you're hot.
10. Santino Ferrucci rounded out the top ten. It was another great start for Ferrucci, but he did not make much progress after getting six spots early. Part of that is strategy, which is odd because Dale Coyne Racing historically has been strong on strategy. Ferrucci has oval pace. He hasn't put a foot wrong yet. Overall, his oval results were down, but Ferrucci has been better on road and street courses. He could get a top ten championship finish.
11. Ryan Hunter-Reay was stuck in 11th all race. This has not been a great year for Andretti Autosport.
12. Álex Palou was out there and finished 12th. Palou did nothing spectacular but did nothing poorly either. He is still new to ovals. Finishing on the lead lap at Gateway is a good day for the rookie.
13. Jack Harvey stopped just after VeeKay I believe, and that strategy did not work for him. This weekend's results will not accurately show the pace Harvey had.
14. Quickly through the rest of the field: Alexander Rossi had to go to a backup car after yesterday's accident and with no practice, all Rossi had on this car was a few instillation laps. He wasn't going to do much better than 14th. Marco Andretti was 15th and tried to go long on each stint. It got Andretti some ground but not a lot. Like Rossi, Simon Pagenaud was lost in this race. I am not sure what happened to Oliver Askew to have him in 17th. I guess it just wasn't a good day, but Askew was not a disaster. Charlie Kimball was 18th and that is about it. Kimball went long on each stint, but mostly held up drivers who had already stopped.
15. I want to give Tony Kanaan his due, because this could be it. I don't think it will be. I think Kanaan will be back at Indianapolis next year because he wants to race in front of spectators one more time. Kanaan said he wanted to do the ovals next year as well. I think Carlin splitting Chilton and Kanaan in a car with Daly full-time would be a smart move for the team. I am not sure the oval-only schedule will happen in 2021, but I will not rule it out. Indianapolis is almost definite. I think Kanaan could be an Indianapolis one-off for the next two or three years if he would like.
The last three years were not the greatest for Kanaan. It was tough going into this year thinking about his consecutive start streak ending. IndyCar was always going to have to accept Tony Kanaan would not always be there. I think this year has been good, as he has transitioned from full-time competition.
He will be missed, but he will still hang around, the same way Dario Franchitti, Bryan Herta, Jimmy Vasser, Max Papis, Michael Andretti, Paul Tracy, Townsend Bell, A.J. Foyt and Mario Andretti are still hanging around IndyCar. Kanaan will not be completely gone from IndyCar. He will just have a different capacity.
16. It is amazing to see how Takuma Sato and Graham Rahal were on completely different pages this weekend. Unlike Iowa, where Rahal started slow and improved, Rahal was lost all weekend. This second race was a glorified test session. Unfortunately, Rahal was fifth in the championship entering today. He could not afford a day like this.
17. I am sure yesterday's accident didn't help, but Ed Carpenter was basically in a glorified test session as well. Zach Veach was just in the way today. Veach annoyed a few drivers out there, notably Dixon. Marcus Ericsson had a loose rear wing force an unscheduled pit stop and cost Ericsson a possible top ten finish.
18. I liked the twin-250 format. Both races were three-stop races, but the strategy could vary. We saw drivers stop early and gain ground. In race one, an untimely caution shook things up. Passing is difficult at Gateway, and it hasn't gotten much better in four years. I get if people are not thrilled with the only way to improve positions being through pit cycles. You have to wait 40-60 laps to see it play out. Unless Firestone brings a tire that is garbage after 20 laps and has cars sliding around and lifting more into the corners, this is how Gateway is always going to play out.
I hope IndyCar can do something just to bring in a little more passing. I am not expecting Indianapolis-esque slipstreams, and this problem exists at many IndyCar ovals, when the leaders catch the tail end of the field, cars need to be getting lapped. Everyone today was consistently running laps between 26.3 to 26.9 seconds today. That is only a half to a full second slower than the fastest times. There needs to be greater fall off. You need cars actually negotiating traffic, not just sitting behind it waiting for pit stops.
19. We are either going to see you in two weeks for a doubleheader at Mid-Ohio or in over a month for the Harvest Grand Prix doubleheader on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course. I hope Mid-Ohio happens, but if it comes down to whether or not spectators are allowed, I think that race could be fully canned or moved elsewhere. That part of Ohio is not best suited for attended events at this time. We will have to wait and see. Maybe the state of Ohio allows some spectators or Mid-Ohio hosts the race behind closed doors. If it depends on allowing spectators, we could be looking at another schedule revision.
