Friday, February 24, 2023

2023 Formula One Season Preview

Formula One testing is underway, and in less than a week the first practice session of the season will take place. The longest Formula One season will see 23 races spread over 266 days. Fourteen drivers remain in the same place from last season, but there will be two drivers set to make debuts while a past Formula E champion is set to become a full-timer and there is a returning veteran after a pair of seasons as a substitute.  

Along with new drivers, there will be a new circuit, though the city has a Formula One history, and one circuit is returning after a year hiatus.

There were two first-time winners in the 2022 season, but we also saw a new record set for victories in a season. It was also a season where budget cap violations drew much attention and could hang over the upcoming season. 

Schedule
For the third consecutive season, Bahrain hosts the Formula One season opener with the opening round taking place on March 5, the earliest start for a Formula One season since the 2002 season. Two weeks after Bahrain, Saudi Arabia hosts the second round on March 19 before Australia hosts round three on April 2. 

Formula One will take nearly a month off before Azerbaijan hosts the fourth round of the season on April 30, a week before the second Miami Grand Prix. Imola marks the first European round of the season and it is the first of a three-week stretch of racing that includes Monaco on May 28 and Spain on June 4. 

After a week off that coincides with the 24 Hours of Le Mans, Formula One returns to North America for the Canadian Grand Prix on June 18. The Austrian Grand Prix will be the first race of summer on July 2, the first of a back-to-back with the British Grand Prix. After a week off, Hungary will take place on July 23, leading off aanother back-to-back, but this time with the Belgian Grand Prix from Spa-Francorchamps. 

Belgium will be the last race before the summer break. Formula One will return for the 14th round of the season at Zandvoort. Monza will be the final race of the European portion of the season on September 3. The Asian swing will begin with the Singapore Grand Prix on September 17 with the Japanese Grand Prix from Suzuka following on September 8. 

Qatar returns to the schedule on October 8. The United States Grand Prix will be October 22, a week before Mexico with Interlagos making it a three-week swing of races. The Las Vegas Grand Prix is scheduled to be the penultimate round on November 18. Eight days later, the 2023 season concludes with the 23rd round, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix from the Yas Marina Circuit. 

Constructors:
Oracle Red Bull Racing
Max Verstappen: #1 Red Bull RB19
What did he do in 2022: Verstappen won a record 16 races and stood on the podium 17 times as he took his second consecutive world championship with 454 points and led Red Bull to its first World Constructors' Championship since 2013.

What to expect in 2023: Until seen otherwise, Verstappen will be the championship favorite. Will it be as easy as 2022? Probably not. The Dutchman caught a beleaguered Ferrari team, which allowed him and Red Bull to annihilate the competition after appearing to have a fight on its hands through the opening five rounds. 

Red Bull is facing wind tunnel restrictions after it was found guilty of budget cap violations, but from the early looks of testing the RB19 is more than ready to be a title winner. There is a world where Red Bull is caught this season and it could lose the championship, but that feels like a stretch. This could be a season where Red Bull rides out the punishment and is still mightier than the rest. If that is the case, Verstappen will be capturing his third consecutive World Drivers' Championship.

Sergio Pérez: #11 Red Bull RB19
What did he do in 2022: Pérez won at Monaco and Singapore while finishing on 11 times, but he was third in the World Drivers' Championship, falling three points shy of making it a Red Bull drivers' 1-2.

What to expect in 2023: It will be more playing second-fiddle to Verstappen, maybe picking up a race victory or two when Verstappen is off and fighting to be second in the world championship. Pérez had what it took to make it a Red Bull 1-2. He didn't get the same kind of him from within the team that he was giving across the garage. 

It was contentious at the end of 2022, and Pérez will have a larger shadow over him than most as Daniel Ricciardo has returned as a Red Bull reserve driver. I don't expect Pérez to be pulled, but Ricciardo's presence will be noticed at a few different points this season. 

Scuderia Ferrari
Charles Leclerc: #16 Ferrari SF-23
What did he do in 2022: Leclerc won two of the first three races and held the championship lead through the first five races, but a rough patch in the early spring that carried into the summer kept him from making a title push. He ended the season with three victories and ten podium finishes, finishing second in the World Drivers' Championship by 146 points. 

What to expect in 2023: Considering the start of the 2022 season, it is easy believe if 2023 is a mulligan, Leclerc can at least be more competitive and keep the pressure on Verstappen deeper into the season. Beyond the cockpit, Ferrari has made plenty of changes. Frédéric Vasseur has become team principal. The team has made changes to improve strategy, and yet, it does not feel Ferrari is moving in the right direction. 

It is easier to imagine Ferrari going winless this year than winning the world championship. This time a year ago it was reversed. Ferrari could have a handful of strong days. In those cases, Leclerc is more likely to be the one on top, but falling from second also feels inevitable for this season.

Carlos Sainz, Jr.: #55 Ferrari SF-23
What did he do in 2022: Sainz, Jr. picked up his first career victory at Silverstone, but a handful of retirements set him back. He stood on the podium ten times before finishing fifth in the world championship.

What to expect in 2023: Sainz, Jr. wasn't the clear number two for Ferrari, but he has yet to grab the reins and lead a team. We will see those flashes of pace and he will get a few podium results, but this could be the season where thoughts begin to turn on Sainz, Jr. This is almost equivalent to what we saw Ricciardo go through last year with McLaren. If this isn't the year Sainz, Jr. establishes himself as a threat, when will it come? 

Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team
Lewis Hamilton: #44 Mercedes W14
What did he do in 2022: For the first time in his grand prix career, Lewis Hamilton did not win a race. Hamilton had nine podium results, but 2022 wound up being his worst season, finishing sixth in the championship, 214 points behind Verstappen.

What to expect in 2023: Expectations have been lowered across the Mercedes camp, but confidence is coming off as higher entering 2023 than when it started 2022. The car is more stable and it is better platform to build from. As bad as last year started, Mercedes made a charge for second in the constructors' championship and still had 17 total podium finishes. 

Things have to be better this year. For Hamilton, I don't know if he can go toe-to-toe with Red Bull and take the fight to Verstappen for the world championship, but he should find a way to win a few races. He probably should have won once or twice in 2022, but the car wasn't there. There should be more trust in the car and Mercedes will rebound.

George Russell: #63 Mercedes W14
What did he do in 2022: One of the most consistent drivers of the season, Russell was regularly the top Mercedes finisher. He opened the season with nine consecutive top five finishes and 15 top five finishes in the first 16 races. He picked up his first career victory in Brazil with Hamilton finishing second. Russell was fourth in the championship, 179 points back.

What to expect in 2023: A greater fight from his teammate for starters. If this car is not lost in the wilderness through the first four months of the season, Hamilton should be leading Russell, but the combination of the two drivers should carry Mercedes up the grid. 

Mercedes probably has the most stable driver pairing. Hamilton and Russell are likely the teammates most in-sync entering 2023. If Hamilton and Russell are lifting each other up, Mercedes will easily take second and could topple a fractured Red Bull. Russell's results should mirror Hamilton's. They should each get at least one victory and both should finish in the top five of the championship.

BWT Alpine F1 Team
Pierre Gasly: #10 Alpine A523
What did he do in 2022: Driving for AlphaTauri, Gasly was 14th in the championship with 23 points. He scored points in six races with his best finish being fifth in Azerbaijan. 

What to expect in 2023: After six seasons under the Red Bull umbrella, Gasly has branched out and is hoping to find better results than his final season with AlphaTauri. Alpine has been stuck as a mid-pack team. I think Gasly's season will look similar to what he experienced last year as others move ahead of Alpine.

Esteban Ocon: #31 Alpine A523
What did he do in 2022: Ocon was the top Alpine driver in the 2022 championship. He was eighth in the championship, matching his best championship finish, with a career-best 92 points. His best finish was fourth in the Japanese Grand Prix. 

What to expect in 2023: Ocon will have the advantage of knowing the team. He should led Alpine, but it should be tight between him and Gasly. This will be a tougher season and Ocon should fall from eighth in the championship and likely fall out of the top ten. There could be a handful of strong days but it will tough to come by.

McLaren F1 Team
Lando Norris: #4 McLaren MCL60
What did he do in 2022: Norris was third at Imola but he had only two other top five finishes all season. He scored points in 17 races and finished seventh in the championship with 122 points.

What to expect in 2023: Norris led the way for McLaren in 2022, and frankly he has led the way the last two seasons. After winning a race in 2021 and coming close to winning two, McLaren took a disappointing step back last season. Norris was best of the rest but was further from the front. Things should improve this year. I am not sure Norris can get that elusive victory, even if he is challenging more at the front. 

Oscar Piastri: #81 McLaren MCL60
What did he do in 2022: Piastri started the year as an Alpine reserve driver before moving to McLaren.

What to expect in 2023: Piastri ripped up the junior ranks, winning the Formula Renault Europcup, Formula Three and Formula Two championships in consecutive seasons. Piastri was sidelined last year before deciding to bail on Alpine for McLaren. Junior series champions have struggled entering Formula One of late. Nobody has come close to repeating Lewis Hamilton's debut season. Piastri will not match that, but he should score more than 37 points. 

Alfa Romeo F1 Team Stake
Guanyu Zhou: #24 Alfa Romeo C43
What did he do in 2022: In his rookie season, Zhou scored a point on debut, but he scored only five more points all season with an eighth in Montreal and a tenth in Austin. He was 18th in the championship.

What to expect in 2023: More points. Zhou will have better consistency and do a better job of finding speed and in turn getting results. He will not be a strong challenger for the top Alfa Romeo driver in the championship, but he will nearly quadruple his points total and have more finishes ahead of his teammate.

Valtteri Bottas: #77 Alfa Romeo C43
What did he do in 2022: Moving to a new team, Bottas ended up tenth in the championship with 49 points. The Finn sacred points in six of the first seven races and seven of the first nine, but he only scored points in two of the final 11 races. He had 49 points.

What to expect in 2023: Something similar to 2022, but a more consistent season. We will not see a large gap between points finishes, but we will not see a significant decrease in point finishes. That means Bottas will score some more points and likely keep himself in the top ten of the championship.

Aston Martin Aramco Cognizant F1 Team
Fernando Alonso: #14 Aston Martin AMR23
What did he do in 2022: Alonso was ninth in the championship with 81 points. He scored points in 14 races, including in a ten-consecutive race stretch from Spain to the Netherlands. His best finish was fifth in Silverstone. 

What to expect in 2023: Aston Martin started testing looking good, and this could be Alonso's late career surge. It is difficult to see Aston Martin making a leap to being a podium contender, but with Alonso I think it is possible. It isn't necessarily going to be regular but Alonso pulled out these kind of results before with Alpine. Alonso should get into the top ten of the championship. 

Lance Stroll: #18 Aston Martin AMR23
What did he do in 2022: Stroll scored 18 points, including having six tenth-place finishes, ending up 15th in the championship. His best result was sixth in the Singapore Grand Prix. 

What to expect in 2023: A cycling injury has made Stroll's 2023 season a little murkier. Nursing a hurt wrist, Stroll did not participate in testing with Felipe Drugovich stepping in. 

Throughout his career, we have seen Stroll as a clear number two driver. Even with a better car, paired with Alonso, it doesn't look like that will change. Stroll does have a way of pulling out a sensational result when the car is up to snuff. Any races missed will not help his championship position, but Stroll should be somewhere between 11th and 15th in the championship, where he has finished in five of six seasons.

MoneyGram Haas F1 Team
Kevin Magnussen: #20 Haas VF-23
What did he do in 2022: After being a late call-up for the 2022 season, Magnussen was fifth in the 2022 season opener and scored 25 points to finish 12th in the championship. He also won his first career pole position at Interlagos when a timely shower washed out the final round of qualifying when Magnussen topped the board. 

What to expect in 2023: Haas made a notable gain in 2022 after a rough previous two seasons. On its best day, Haas could score points and look respectable. Those days were still rare, but Magnussen was leading the way. I think Haas can make another step forward, but not necessarily be a podium contender, a place a Haas driver has yet to visit. Magnussen should be scoring between 25-40 points.

Nico Hülkenberg: #27 Haas VF-23
What did he do in 2022: Hülkenberg ran the first two races for Aston Martin in place of Sebastian Vettel, who was out due to COVID. His best finish was 12th in the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.

What to expect in 2023: Hülkenberg should get more out of Haas. This combination should draw more out of the car and lead to better results. It would be something if Hülkenberg's first podium finish also made him the first Haas podium finisher. I don't think that will happen. Hülkenberg should be aiming to be in the same 25-40 point range and look to get Haas another position or two in the constructors' championship.

Scuderia AlphaTauri
Nyck de Vries: #21 AlphaTauri AT04
What did he do in 2022: De Vries made an unexpected grand prix debut in the Italian Grand Prix driving for Williams when Alexander Albon was ruled out due to an appendicitis. De Vries ended up ninth on debut. He was also ninth in the Formula E championship with victories in Diriyah and Berlin.

What to expect in 2023: De Vries is getting a long-awaited shot in Formula One. The mood is quite high around AlphaTauri with de Vries in the car. He has found success basically everywhere he has gone. De Vries should lead AlphaTauri and lead the team to a better championship finish. AlphaTauri should find at least one position, if not two spots in the constructors' championship and de Vries should be somewhere in the top fifteen.

Yuki Tsunoda: #22 AlphaTauri AT04
What did he do in 2022: Tsunoda was 17th in the championship with 12 points. His best finish was seventh in Imola. 

What to expect in 2023: Tsunoda should be closer to his 2021 results, but still pale in comparison to de Vries. We will still see the errors that he has become known for in his short career and it will put more pressure on Tsunoda as he tries to keep himself in a Formula One seat for 2024. 

Williams Racing
Logan Sargeant: #2 Williams FW45
What did he do in 2022: Sargeant wound up fourth in the Formula Two championship with two victories and four podium finishes. He scored points in 20 of 28 races. 

What to expect in 2023: After a surprising Formula Two season did enough to earn Sargeant enough points for a Super License and Sargeant is now a Formula One driver. He did well in Formula Two, and he had a crushing loss in the Formula Three championship in 2020, which went to Oscar Piastri. I think Sargeant will struggle this year, and even cause some to question if he is really an upgrade over Nicholas Latifi. 

Alexander Albon: #23 Williams FW45
What did he do in 2022: Albon scored four points with a finish of ninth in Miami and finishes of tenth in Melbourne and Monza. He finished in the top 13 of 13 of 22 races. 

What to expect in 2023: Albon had one of the best seasons in 2022, though it mostly went unnoticed. The hope is Williams can at least make a step forward. It will still be an uphill battle, but Albon should at least match his 2022 output, if not exceed it. It will not be enough to put him in the top fifteen in the championship, but it will only increase respect from others.

Practice for the Bahrain Grand Prix will begin at 6:30 a.m. ET on Friday March 3. The second practice will follow later that day at 10:00 a.m. ET. On Saturday March 4, practice will be held at 6:30 a.m. ET before qualifying takes place at 10:00 a.m. ET. The 2023 Bahrain Grand Prix will being at 10:00 a.m. ET on Sunday March 5.