Twenty-three days until the 2023 NTT IndyCar Series opener. This is the antepenultimate team preview. It is an expanding organization. After completing its first season with a full-time entry, Juncos Hollinger Racing will field two cars this season. JHR displayed impressive pace for a single-car organization that was still exploring unknown terrain as a full-time entrant. It hopes to make strides this year with a promising talent and with a driver who is completely unknown outside of his home country but hopes to turn some heads.
At First Glance... Has there ever been someone as unknown as Agustín Canapino to enter IndyCar?
Seriously? When was the last time a driver such as Canapino came into IndyCar and in a full-time ride nonetheless?
For much of the last decade, new IndyCar drivers have come from the same avenues. The Road to Indy has been a healthy provider of talent. If drivers aren't coming from the domestic route, they are coming from Formula Two where their names are somewhat familiar. Some drivers had ties to Formula One programs, see Callum Ilott. Others were race winners but didn't have ties to a Formula One team.
There have been a few exceptions. Other recent IndyCar debutants were a Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters race winners, a veteran of 179 Formula One grand prix starts, a seven-time NASCAR Cup Series champion and a Supercars champion.
Top drivers from across the globe have been coming to IndyCar for the last few seasons. Canapino is one of the top men from where he comes from. In Argentina, he is a four-time champion in Turismo Carretera, a stock car series. He has twice won the Súper TC2000 championship, a touring car series. The 33-year-old has done it all at home. Now, he moves onto a new challenge.
America will not be new to Canapino. He made two IMSA starts back in 2019 when Juncos Racing dipped its toe into IMSA competition, but now he is here for the full season, sliding into a single-seater, something Canapino has never really done. He ran a pair of Fórmula 3 Sudamericana races back in 2011. Outside of that, he has been racing stock car and touring car for his entire career.
We don't look south when it comes to motorsports. We look to Europe, the home of Formula One, Le Mans and more junior series than you can imagine. We look to Japan and Australia for something a little more exotic and thrilling. Throw in a language barrier, Argentina's selection of motorsports isn't close to even become niche in the American motorsports world. What Canapino has done mind as well have taken place on Neptune. That is how far it is from the American motorsports sphere.
But truth be told there is excellent talent all around the globe. South America has not been the pipeline we are used to seeing for drivers. Brazil isn't producing the same quantity of IndyCar drivers that we saw 20 years ago. There was a burst of Colombians in the early 2010s, but Los Cafeteros have disappeared from the grid. That doesn't mean there are no great drivers in South America. There are, and Canapino will get his chance on a greater stage.
As for how unexpected Canapino's participation is in the grand scheme of IndyCar? The closest I can come up with is Mario Moraes, a driver who had a brief cup of coffee in British Formula Three and had also competed in Fórmula 3 Sudamericana, but somehow was making his IndyCar debut a few months after turning 19 years old. Another driver that should be mentioned is Juho Annala. Who you ask? Annala started the 2008 Long Beach race driving for Rocketsports. Where did Annala come from? The Finn ran two seasons in British Formula Three's national class and a year in International Formula Master. Long Beach was Annala’s only start and few likely have a clue he ever competed.
The big difference between those two and Canapino is Canapino has a full career behind him backing up his abilities as he looks to find success on a new continent in an entirely different type of machinery.
2022 Juncos Hollinger Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 8th (Grand Prix of Indianapolis)
Poles: 0
Best Starting Position: 2nd (Laguna Seca)
Championship Finishes: 20th (Callum Ilott)
Callum Ilott - #77 Visit Argentina Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
1: Time where Ilott had consecutive lead lap finishes in 2022 (Iowa and the July IMS Road course race)
2: Times finishing better than his starting position in his first eight starts of 2022
6: Times finishing better than his starting position in his final eight starts of 2022
What does a championship season look like for him?
Ilott has that breathtaking qualifying pace from the first race of the season and his race finishes back up the pure speed. It might not necessarily be finishing better than where he rolls off, but taking a fifth-place start and at least coming home seventh or eight. It could be starting on the front row but at least finishing in the top five. It might take a few races but he will be using those days to get used to running at the front.
Come the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Ilott is comfortable and pulls out a special victory, but one that is not all that surprising considering where we saw him running in the first four races. He pulls out a top ten in the Indianapolis 500, something that is victory for this team and can bridge him into the summer. He has a run of podium finishes that has everyone's attention and it includes his second victory of the season at Mid-Ohio. Another top five at Toronto has him in the championship lead.
Iowa is about getting the most from a difficult situation. A pair of top ten finishes limit the damage before getting back on the podium at Nashville. He sweeps the IMS road course races, gets another top ten at Gateway and then wins at Portland with a top five at Laguna Seca sealing the championship.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Considering the resources of JHR, anything in the top fifteen would be a great year for this season. We know the team can produce speed. Ilott significantly exceeded expectations on qualifying pace. Even with those great qualifying performances we saw, Ilott still started outside the top fifteen in nine of 16 starts. JHR is still a small team. The pit crew is not at the level of Penske or Ganassi. The engineers are not at the same level. The team is not developing its own dampers.
Ilott can only do so much, but he can be rather remarkable. It will be difficult for him to finish in the top five, but not impossible. It will not be a regular thing for him, but he could pull it off once or twice in 2023. Top ten finishes could happen in every other race. Eight top ten finishes is achievable, but that is the high end for this team's season. Five or six top ten finishes feels more practical.
Agustín Canapino - #78 Visit Argentina Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
2: Canapino is one of two motorsports competitors to win the Olimpia de Oro, the prize given to Argentina's sportsperson of the year. The other motorsports competitor to win it was Juan Manuel Fangio.
15: Turismo Carretera race victories
26: Súper TC2000 race victories
8,267: Days between the last time an Argentine driver started an IndyCar race and the 2023 St. Petersburg season opener. The most recent Argentine to start an IndyCar race was Noberto Fontana at Toronto on July 16, 2000.
What does a championship season look like for him?
It would have to be a combination of what Álex Palou did in 2021, Scott McLaughlin did in 2022 and a bit of what Robert Wickens did in 2018. Canapino would have to be the best driver from day one at St. Petersburg and leave everyone floored at his ability. Then Canapino would have to do it again and again and again. He would have to shatter everyone's preconceived notion about his abilities, including probably even his own.
Canapino would need a run of top five results to open the season and then have an Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year worthy run. In the second half of the season, an average finish around 7.5 with at least three victories and five podium finishes would be enough to take an improbable championship.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Testing pace was rather encouraging for Canapino. He was 21st out of 27 drivers at the Thermal Club, but the second fastest rookie, and faster than Graham Rahal, Rinus VeeKay, Santino Ferrucci and Conor Daly. He is far from the top, but he wasn't rock bottom.
It will be an exhausting season. Every track will be new. He will be caught out at a few tracks and be holding on to the rear of the field. It is unlikely he is racing to crack the top fifteen at many races this year. If he is cracking the top twenty a handful of times that could make it a great season. Ovals will be completely new to him. There is a good chance he will be the lowest driver in the championship among the full-time drivers. There should be enough daylight between him and Ilott in the final championship to drive a few Mack Trucks through. However, I think we will see Canapino improve over each round.
The 2023 NTT IndyCar Series begins on Sunday March 5 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC and Peacock will have coverage of the race starting at noon.
