Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...
South Africa was busy this weekend. One local was living a dream, another didn't get to compete. A breathtaking pass occurred for a victory. There were a few notable falls in Supercross. World Superbike had mixed conditions for its season opener from Phillip Island. There were mixed conditions for the indefinite final weekend from Fontana, but Kyle Busch only needed two races with Richard Childress Racing to get his first Cup victory with the team. Formula One testing took place, and it appears 2023 isn't going to look much different than 2022. Formula One teams are raising its price for Andretti's entry. Drive to Survive released its fifth season. But it is another season opener that has my attention...
2023 Possible IndyCar Milestones
The final days of the IndyCar offseason are here. For how long the IndyCar offseason is, it does feel like the 2023 season has just shown up on our doorstep unannounced. A week from now the first race of the season will be in the books and we will be on our way to deciding the 2023 champion.
Championship aside, many other historic accomplishments will occur before the Astor Cup is awarded, and this is our chance to prepare ourselves for what could happen over the 17-race IndyCar calendar.
Scott Dixon - Most Consecutive Starts
Where he is at: 305 consecutive starts
What he needs to do: There is an entire Scott Dixon section today, because it is Scott Dixon, but next to a record-tying seventh championship, this could be the most historic thing Scott Dixon accomplishes this season.
Dixon is 13 starts away from equaling Tony Kanaan's record of 318 consecutive IndyCar starts. Fourteen consecutive starts and Dixon will own another record. Dixon has not missed a race since the 2004 Indy Racing League event at Milwaukee on July 25, 2004. The first race of this streak was August 1, 2004 at Michigan. Dixon could equal the record, 19 years and five days after it began, at Nashville. He could break the record, 19 years and 11 days after it began, at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course.
Dixon: Most Top Five Finishes
Where he is at: 192 top five finishes
What he needs to do: Dixon needs two top five finishes to break Mario Andretti's record of 193 top five finishes, and 200 top five finishes are still in play this season, but let's get the overall record first. This could checked be off through the first two races at St. Petersburg and Texas.
Dixon has had two top five finishes within the first four races of the season in the last four years. He has had at least two top five finishes in the first five races of a season in 17 consecutive seasons and 18 of the last 19 seasons. The 2005 season is the last time Dixon failed to get at least two top five finishes.
As for 200, Dixon is coming off a season with nine top five finishes in 2022. He also had nine in 2021, and nine in 2020, and 11 in 2019. It is easier to ask, "When was the last time Dixon had fewer than eight top five finishes in a season?" The answer would be 2016 when he had five. In the DW12 era, 2015 and 2016 are the only years he has not had at least eight top five finishes. Before 2015 and 2016, when was the last time he had fewer than eight top five finishes in a season? That would be that previously mentioned 2005 season.
Two hundred has a good chance of happening.
Dixon: Second Most Laps Led
Where he is at: 6,519 laps led
What he needs to do: Dixon must lead 174 laps to surpass Michael Andretti for the second most laps led in IndyCar history. He has led at least 174 laps in the last five seasons and in 15 of the last 17 seasons. Again, another place in the record book that looks likely to be Dixon's when 2023 is over.
In case you are wondering about the all-time record? Mario Andretti leads with 7,595 laps led, 1,076 clear of Dixon. Only three times has a driver led more than 1,000 laps in a season, the most recent being Michael Andretti in 1992.
Dixon: Fourth Most Starts
Where he is at: 368 starts
What he needs to do: Dixon is one start behind A.J. Foyt for fourth all-time. Dixon should be level with Foyt after St. Petersburg. Fittingly, Dixon would surpass Foyt for fourth at Texas.
Dixon: Most Different Circuits with a Victory
Where he is at: 26 different circuits, tied for the all-time record
What he needs to do: Dixon must win at either St. Petersburg, Barber, Detroit, Portland or Laguna Seca to break the tie with Mario Andretti for most different circuits with a victory.
Hélio Castroneves: Second Most Starts
Where he is at: 374 starts
What he needs to do: Castroneves will start the 2023 season third in starts, 14 behind Tony Kanaan for second. We know Kanaan will make one final start in the 2023 Indianapolis 500, bringing his career total to 389 starts. In all likelihood, Castroneves will need at least 390 starts to be second all-time at the end of the 2023 season, barring Tony Kanaan deciding to postpone his retirement for a few more races. We could be looking at Castroneves claiming second at Portland.
Will Power and Hélio Castroneves: 100 Podium Finishes
Where they are at: 94 podium finishes
What they need to do: Score six podium finishes. Castroneves picked up zero in 2022, and six podium finishes in 2023 feels like a stretch for the Brazilian, but as for Power, the Australian has had six podium finishes in nine of the last 13 seasons. In the process of going for 100, when either of these drivers reach 99 podium finishes, they would move ahead of Al Unser in the record book. If either reach 100 podium finishes, they would equal Michael Andretti for fourth all-time.
Josef Newgarden: 60 Podium Finishes
Where he is at: 55 podium finishes
What he needs to do: Pick up five podium finishes. Sixty podium finishes doesn't sound like a historic mark, but it is a new zip code. Only 20 drivers have scored 50 podium finishes. If Newgarden were to reach 60, he would be only the 18th driver to reach that mark. Three more podium finishes and he would move ahead of Sébastien Bourdais in the record book. Hitting 60 would tie Newgarden with Johnny Rutherford.
Newgarden has had exactly six podium finishes in each of the last three seasons, and he has had at least five podium finishes in five of six seasons driving for Team Penske.
Alexander Rossi: 50 Top Five Finishes
Where he is at: 40 top five finishes
What he needs to do: Rossi needs to have ten top five finishes. That is a massive ask for Rossi, but he has been expressing new found confidence since joining the McLaren organization. Only twice has Rossi had at least ten top five finishes in a season. He had ten in 2018 and 11 in 2019. If Rossi were to reach 50 top five finishes he would be the 34th driver to reach that milestone.
Graham Rahal: Second Most Starts Between Victories
Where he is at: 90 starts without a victory
What he needs to do: We mentioned this last year. Well, Rahal could have an odd piece of history that he likely doesn't want but could be still cool to have. If Rahal does not win any of the first eight races of the 2023 season, any victory that follows this season would give Rahal the second most starts between victories. Currently, the second most starts between victories is 97 by Johnny Rutherford.
Who has the record? It would be Graham Rahal, who went 124 starts between his first victory at St. Petersburg in 2008 and his second victory at Fontana in 2015. Rahal could own the two longest streaks for most starts between victories in IndyCar history. No one wants that record but he is already guaranteed at least the third longest streak.
Look at it this way, no driver has snapped multiple winless streaks greater than 50 starts in IndyCar history. If Rahal does it, not only would it be history, but it would show a career of perseverance that many should use as inspiration.
Takuma Sato: 1,000 Laps Led
Where he is at: 935 laps led
What he needs to do: Lead 65 laps. Only 41 drivers have led at least 1,000 laps in IndyCar history. Sato reaching it would be kind of fitting. He has had a better career than Marco Andretti, Scott Sharp, Greg Ray and Buddy Lazier, and all of those drivers have led at least 1,000 laps in their careers. Sato should, on principle, reach that milestone. It will be tougher as Sato will only run the five oval races this season. He will have 1,258 chances to lead a laps in 2023, as long as weather doesn't get in the way.
Simon Pagenaud and Ed Carpenter: 200 Starts
Where they are at: Pagenaud is on 199 starts. Carpenter is on 196 starts.
What they needs to do: Pagenaud just has to start St. Petersburg. Carpenter could hit 200 as early as the second Iowa race with his oval-only schedule. They will be the 28th and 29th drivers respectively to pass the bicentennial mark in starts. For each driver you have to think about all the races they didn't start.
Pagenaud lost four seasons after reunification because there was no seat for him in 2008. He spent the better part of four years in sports cars. He could have had another 66 starts to his name if he had a ride after reunification.
Carpenter has been an oval-only driver since 2014, plus he was only a part-time driver in 2010 and 2011. Just taking the previous nine seasons into consideration, if Carpenter had been full-time that entire time, he would actually be on 299 starts entering 2023! I think it has worked out for Carpenter considering he was never the most competitive on road courses, but he could be much further up the record book had he decided he would remain full-time.
Conor Daly: 100 Starts
Where he is at: 97 starts
What he needs to do: Start three races. One hundred starts is quite big for Daly. He spent a good portion of his early career being that guy who couldn't get a break full-time and he pieced together a career. It hasn't been a stellar run but Daly has made the most of difficult situations. If Daly does not win either of his first two starts, he would be in position to become the fourth driver to take 100 starts or more to get a first career victory. If he does not win until the Laguna Seca season finale, Daly would surpass Ed Carpenter for the third most starts before a first career victory in IndyCar history.
Tony Kanaan: Four Different Decades with a Victory
Where he is at: Three different decades with a victory
What he needs to do: Win the Indianapolis 500. I am bringing this back because the Indianapolis 500 could be Kanaan's final start. He has won in the 1990s, 2000s and 2010s. The only driver to win an IndyCar race in four different decades is Mario Andretti. Last year, Kanaan and Juan Pablo Montoya each had a chance to join Andretti last year. Montoya likely will not be at Indianapolis this year. Kanaan is the only hope.
If Kanaan does not win this year, it could be seven years until we see another chance at this accomplishment, and that would require Scott Dixon, Hélio Castroneves and/or Will Power racing into 2030. Castroneves will be in his mid 50s, Dixon his early 50s and Power will be 49 years old. I am not sure any of those three will be around in 2030. We may have to wait until 2040 when either Josef Newgarden or Colton Herta may have a chance at it, but even that is far from a guarantee. Kanaan could be the last driver we see have a shot at this for quite a long-time if not ever.
Santino Ferrucci: Five Top Ten Finishes in First Five Indianapolis 500 Starts
Where he is at: Four top ten finishes in four Indianapolis 500 starts
What he needs to do: Finish in the top ten of the Indianapolis 500, but do you know how rare five top ten finishes in the first five Indianapolis 500 starts for a driver is? Here is the list of drivers to do it.
Harry Hartz
Hélio Castroneves
That's it. That's the list.
Ferrucci has finished seventh, fourth, sixth and tenth at Indianapolis. His career average finish is 6.75 in the Indianapolis 500. If he wins the Indianapolis 500 this year, Ferrucci's average finish would improve to 5.6, the fourth best average finish among drivers with at least five Indianapolis 500 starts. It would only trail Bill Holland (4.4), Ted Horn (4.6) and Jimmy Murphy (5.0). He would be ahead of Hartz (6.5), Dan Wheldon (7.333), Carlos Muñoz (7.5) and Hélio Castroneves (8.318). If he finishes tenth, Ferrucci's average finish would be 7.4. At worst, even if Ferrucci doesn't finish in the top ten and finishes dead last in 33rd, his average finish would be 12.0, tied for 46th best with the likes of Jim Clark, Earl DeVore, Bobby Rahal and Floyd Roberts.
Ferrucci has been remarkable in his early days at Indianapolis in otherwise overlooked cars. You don't accidentally get five consecutive top ten Indianapolis 500 finishes. This small piece of history would be quite remarkable.
Winners From the Weekend
You know about Kyle Busch, but did you know...
John Hunter Nemechek won the Grand National Series race from Fontana.
António Félix da Costa won the Cape Town ePrix.
The #32 Team WRT BMW of Sheldon van der Linde, Dries Vanthoor and Charles Weerts won the Kyalami 9 Hours.
Cooper Webb won the Supercross Triple Crown round from Arlington after he won the third race. Eli Tomac and Jason Anderson split the first two races.
Álvaro Bautista swept the World Superbike races from Phillip Island. Nicolò Bulega swept the World Supersport races.
Coming Up This Weekend
IndyCar season opener from St. Petersburg.
Formula One season opener from Bahrain.
GT America will also be in St. Petersburg.
Daytona Bike Week sees Supercross run at the Speedway.
World Superbike moves north to Mandalika, Indonesia.
NASCAR heads east to Las Vegas.
