We are approaching the final days of the IndyCar offseason. Testing is taking place. Every seat is claimed. Now we wait, and we are entering the final half of the team previews. Thirty days are all that are between now and the 2023 NTT IndyCar Series opener. It is only fitting that 30 days out for the first race of the season we look at the team what runs car #30. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing is back with three cars for another season. While there were bright spots in 2022, there are plenty of areas where this team has room for improvement to become a serious front-runner on a regular basis.
At First Glance... This could be something special
The 2022 season did not result in any victories or notable championship result for any of the three Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing drivers. It was actually a tough season where RLLR's qualifying woes continued onward for another year, but even with all the low moments, this three-car team ended 2022 on an optimistic note.
RLLR had won a race in six consecutive seasons prior to the 2021 season. It had placed a driver in the championship top ten in seven consecutive seasons prior to 2022. It has been in the right zip code for the most of the last decade, it just hasn't found the right address.
Last year was difficult, but there are plenty of positives to draw from that season. Graham Rahal missed out on the championship top ten, but he still had nine top ten finishes. Christian Lundgaard had a rough start to the season, but he still won Rookie of the Year and still had his first career podium finish and picked up another top five finish in the finale. Jack Harvey... had a bad year. There is no point in sugarcoating it, but all these drivers at their best with RLLR at its best could combine for sensational results.
It will be approaching six years since Rahal's most recent victory, but in the interim he probably should have won one of those races. Even without a victory, he is a consistent driver who is at the front more than the rear even with his underwhelming qualifying pace. Better starting positions would likely lead to improved results, and improved results into better championship finishes.
Lundgaard has taken to IndyCar stoutly. At the end of 2022, he was getting better qualifying results and was regularly in the top ten and finishing even better than that. He came into IndyCar like a lightning bolt and though he wasn't shaking the field, everyone has their eyes on the Dane moving forward.
Harvey took a startling fall back in his first year with RLLR. After being a frequent sleeper for Meyer Shank Racing, Harvey was expected to make a leap forward at his new team. Instead, he went in the wrong direction and raised many eyebrows. However, we have seen what Harvey can do in the right circumstances. A second season should see things get better.
All three of these drivers performing at their highest can win races. If they all click simultaneously, RLLR could be set for its best season since at least the 2001 CART season where Kenny Bräck was championship runner-up, even two would be enough. "If" is the biggest two-letter word of them all, but for RLLR in 2023, great success is possible
2022 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 2nd (July IMS road course race)
Poles: 0
Best Start: 3rd (Nashville, Portland)
Championship Finishes: 11th (Graham Rahal), 14th (Christian Lundgaard), 22nd (Jack Harvey)
Graham Rahal - #15 United Rentals Honda
Numbers to Remember:
0: Podium finishes in 2022, Rahal's first season without a podium result since 2010 when Rahal began the season without a ride and then drove for four different teams
90: Consecutive races without a victory, the second longest drought of Rahal's career
9: Average number of top ten finishes in a season
What does a championship season look like for him?
Qualifying results drastically improve. Instead of being regularly outside the top ten and outside the top fifteen, Rahal is a regular in the Fast Six. That qualifying pace translate into race results. He starts with a handful of top ten finishes, some of those being top five results. He wins one of the first five races and has a top five finish in the Indianapolis 500.
Set up high in the championship after Indianapolis, he remains at the point and a second victory at Road America or Mid-Ohio has everyone believing Rahal could be a championship threat. He is constantly in the top ten over the summer and isn't losing much ground to the rest of the competition. A victory in Nashville or in the second IMS road course race assures Rahal is going to be there until very end. A strong podium result at Gateway or Portland puts Rahal a top and he closes with an emphatic top five run at Laguna Seca when many still doubt him but it is enough to clinch the championship.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
It will be eight years since Rahal's one championship chase back in 2015. That season came almost out of nowhere. He was 19th the year prior. Eleventh to first is nothing in comparison. A championship would require no mistakes, no bad days and Rahal capitalizing on a season where there isn't one dominant driver. It would require a number of dominoes falling the right way.
Prior to 2022, Rahal had been in the championship top ten for seven consecutive seasons. His 2022 form wasn't that poor. He was 11th. A few races going his way and he is back in the top ten, but IndyCar gets tougher every season and Rahal must make a notable leap forward. A victory is possible for any member of this team. Somewhere between sixth and 13th in the championship feels like Rahal's territory with eight to 12 top ten finishes.
Jack Harvey - #30 Kustom Entertainment Honda
Numbers to Remember:
17.3125: Average finish in 2022, 20th among IndyCar regulars
16.625: Average starting position in 2022, 20th among IndyCar regulars
1,992: Laps completed in 2022, 19th among IndyCar regulars
209: Points in 2022, 22nd in the IndyCar championship
What does a championship season look like for him?
It would have to start with Harvey blowing the doors off of everybody. Winning St. Petersburg and setting the tone that he has shed the 2022 season and is a new driver for 2023. But winning the first race can easily be dismissed. Five consecutive top five finishes is harder to reject. Another top five in the Indianapolis 500 and Harvey is out ahead of the field early in the championship.
A second victory comes early in the summer and Harvey remains consistently finishing in the top ten. His qualifying form harkens back to his early days with Meyer Shank Racing. He has multiple pole positions. Another victory comes at the IMS road course and he ends the season with a run of four consecutive top ten finishes to take the Astor Cup.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Considering how bad 2022 was, there will be an improvement in 2023 no matter what happens. It might sound crazy to call that a guarantee but 22nd in the championship and behind Jimmie Johnson is quite awful. Harvey could drive this season with his eyes closed and at worse come up 18th in the championship. It doesn't sound great but it would be a four-position gain in the championship.
We do have to acknowledge the flaws that are appearing with Harvey. A few seasons ago, he was the steal on the grid, making MSR a contender for race victories. Something has been lost over the past two seasons. In 2022, the reliably quick driver we came to know and love wasn't there. There were flashes, but it didn't translate. He had two top ten finishes. Five top ten finishes should be the minimum for Harvey. Neither of his teammates were sensational last season, but they each got at least seven top ten finishes. In fact, 14 of the top fifteen in the championship last year had at least seven top ten finishes. He should get close to that, but you must hold your breathe on it being significantly better than that.
Christian Lundgaard - #45 HyVee Honda
Numbers to Remember:
14.25: Average finish in the first eight races of 2022
12.222: Average finish in the final nine races of 2022
10.5: Average finish in the final nine races after removing his 26th in the second Iowa race when Lundgaard was forced to retire due to brake issues
13.571: Average finish in the first eight races after removing his worst finish from that span, a 19th at Texas when he retired after brushing the barrier
What does a championship season look like for him?
The second half of 2022 carrying over into 2023. Instead of opening with four consecutive finishes outside the top ten, Lundgaard has four consecutive top ten finishes to open the season, at least one is a top five result. At Indianapolis, he isn't second but first in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, and in the Indianapolis 500 he shows respectable pace and gets a top ten finish.
The summer starts with good form, but he hits his stride at Mid-Ohio with another victory and that starts a run of top five finishes that gives him the championship lead. A good Iowa weekend starts to convince people Lundgaard has what it takes. He gets a pair of podium finishes between Nashville and the second IMS road course race. He is increasing his championship lead incrementally. A good day at Gateway, seventh, is an exhale and he controls serve into the final two events. Another podium result at Portland calms his nerves and a smart top five run in Laguna Seca seals the title.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Lundgaard can end this season as the top RLLR driver. I put him slightly ahead of Rahal in terms of odds of winning a race in 2023. The circuits that suit Lundgaard suit him well. The one thing in Rahal's favor is Rahal is consistency, but Lundgaard showed in the second half of 2022 that he was getting to that level. If Rahal is on point, it will be tough to top, but if Rahal is slightly off, it will open the door for Lundgaard.
The Dane should make a run for the championship top ten. The key will be a better balance to the season, and that should happen. If he can get to ten top ten finishes, which is achievable, he will be close. It will come down to how many of those results are on the podium and in the top five. Good qualifying results could be the difference between two or three spots in the championship. Lundgaard was already the top RLLR qualifier, albeit his qualifying average was only 14.9. If he can lower than average by nearly three positions, championship top ten could be his.
The 2023 NTT IndyCar Series begins on Sunday March 5 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC and Peacock will have coverage of the race beginning at noon.
