2023 NASCAR Cup Series Preview

This year marks the 75th NASCAR Cup Series season. Thirty-five drivers have won a Cup Series championship. Seven enter the 2023 season looking to add another to their total. The rest are gunning to become the 36th different champion when this 36-race season is over.

For the 42nd consecutive season, the Daytona 500 opens the calendar before Fontana hosts its final round on the two-mile oval before the multi-year short track conversion begins. Las Vegas and Phoenix start March with a trip to Atlanta ending the winter portion of the calendar. Circuit of the Americas starts spring and ends March. 

The first short track race of the season will be at Richmond, the week before the Bristol dirt race is held on Easter night. Martinsville makes its a hat trick of short track events before Talladega, marking the tenth race of the season. 

Dover, Kansas and Darlington round out the first half of the regular season with the NASCAR All-Star Race taking place on May 21 at North Wilkesboro Speedway, the first time the Cup Series has run on the 0.625-mile oval since 1996, marking the midway point in the regular season. The Coca-Cola 600 from Charlotte will be the following Sunday ahead of Gateway and Sonoma. After Sonoma, the Cup Series takes its one midseason off-week on the weekend of June 18.

Summer begins with a night race at Nashville on June 25. The following weekend will be the inaugural Chicago street course race with a 5:30 p.m. ET start. Atlanta makes it three consecutive twilight-to-night events that following Sunday. Loudon is race #20 on July 16 with Pocono and Richmond closing out the month of July.

Michigan's lone date is on August 6 before consecutive road course races at Indianapolis and Watkins Glen. The regular season finale will be August 26 at Daytona, one of two scheduled Saturday night races.

The Southern 500 from Darlington opens the playoffs on September 3 with Kansas and the Saturday night Bristol race filling out round one. Texas Motor Speedway's only race will be the first race of the round of 12 on September 24. Talladega will be the following week with the Charlotte roval deciding the drivers moving onto the semifinal round. 

Las Vegas hosts the Cup Series on October 15, a week before Homestead with the penultimate race of the season being at Martinsville on October 29. For the fourth consecutive season, Phoenix hosts the season finale with the championship to be decided on November 5.

We know the dates and the order of the races. What does the grid look like for the 2023 season, and how does the field stack up in terms of playoff hopes? Last season saw a record-tying 19 different winners in a Cup season. Fifteen playoff spots were claimed by race winners leaving only one spot to a driver on points. It should remain contentious to see who fills out the 16-driver playoff field.

Chartered Teams

Ross Chastain - #1 AdventHealth/Moose Fraternity/Worldwide Express/Kubota/Jockey Chevrolet

Team: Trackhouse
2022 Championship Finish: 2nd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2021)

2023 Playoff Prospects: After a breakout season in 2022 that saw Chastain wind up second in the championship, the playoffs are a minimum for the 2023 season. Anything less would be a stunning reverse of fortune. He is more than aggressive enough to win races and consistent enough to finish well in points. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Chastain won at Austin and Talladega last year, but he showed he could win anywhere with runner-up finishes in Phoenix, Atlanta and Homestead and other top five results at Martinsville, Las Vegas, Dover, Nashville and Road America. 

Austin Cindric - #2 Menards/Discount Tires Ford

Team: Team Penske
2022 Championship Finish: 12th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2022)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Cindric was the surprise Daytona 500 winner and we thought it would set up a multi-victory season for the rookie, but Cindic did not find the same success on the road courses where many figured he would shine. Cindric found good form at the end of the season. He should improve on his results in 2023, but it should be noted Cindric ended the 2022 regular season 14th in points. Without that victory he would not have made the playoffs. He could be living on the bubble again this season. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: There are five regular season road course races. Cindric cannot be shutout two consecutive years. 

Austin Dillon - #3 Bass Pro Shops/BioEthanol Chevrolet

Team: Richard Childress Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 11th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2018)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Making the playoffs off the back of a victory in the summer Daytona race after the entire field was wiped out in an accident, Dillon caught a break in 2022. He is rarely a top five regular, but he can piece together top ten finishes. His playoff hopes could come down to the number of regular season winners. A lower number could be in Dillon's favor. A higher number could knock him out, unless Dillon is a winner himself.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Dillon ran well last year at Fontana and he also had a good day at Homestead. If the surface is worn out, he appears to be in a comfort zone, and he does well at Richmond as well.

Kevin Harvick - #4 Busch/SunnyD/Hunt Brothers Pizza/GearWrench/Rheem Ford

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 15th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2007)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Entering his final NASCAR Cup Series season, Harvick will look to make the playoffs for a 14th consecutive season. Last year was his worst championship finish since 2009, but poor first round playoff results were not of his making as the car let him down. Harvick will close his career on a high note. The playoffs are a certain, how far he goes is fluid, but it will not be without a lack of effort.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Anywhere. It is Kevin Harvick. But he has yet to win at Austin, the Bristol dirt race, the Charlotte roval, the IMS road course and Nashville. Granted, three of those tracks he has only raced at twice. He hasn't won a road course race since Sonoma 2017. Keep that in mind. 

Kyle Larson - #5 HendrickCars.com/Valvoline Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: 7th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2016, 2019)

2023 Playoff Prospects: After winning the 2021 championship, Larson's 2022 season was likely not going to match that level. Larson took that step back, but perhaps further than anticipated. Still, Larson was in the picture into to autumn and that should be the case again with a championship four spot highly likely.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Anywhere. It is Kyle Larson. It does feel like third time should be the charm for him at the Bristol dirt race.

Brad Keselowski - #6 Castrol/Violet Defense/Solomon Plumbing/King's Hawaiian Ford

Team: Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 24th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2014)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Moving to his own team, Keselowski's 2022 season was a humbling experience and a 100-point penalty didn't help his efforts. However, RFK Racing turned a page late in 2022. If Keselowski can rediscover his form, he can take a playoff spot, and the team was trending in the right direction at the end of last season.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: RFK Racing did have good performances at the plate races last year, places where Keselowski has been good before. 

Corey LaJoie - #7 Celsius/Schluter Systems/Jessie Rees Foundation Chevrolet

Team: Spire Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: 31st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 8th (2020)

2023 Playoff Prospects: LaJoie was outside the top 30 last year, which meant even if he won a race he still wouldn't qualify for the playoffs. NASCAR has removed the top 30 requirement for a playoff contender, increasing LaJoie's still low chances of making it.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: LaJoie was knocking on the door at both Atlanta races last year. Throw in both Daytona races and Talladega and there are his five opportunities to make the playoffs. 

Kyle Busch - #8 3CHI/Cheddars/Alsco/BettMGM/Lenovo/Netspend Chevrolet

Team: Richard Childress Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 13th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2019)

2023 Playoff Prospects: The big driver change of the offseason is Busch leaving Joe Gibbs Racing after 15 years of success. The last few seasons have been underwhelming in the grand scheme of Busch's career and he has only won one race in two of the last three seasons. However, it only takes one victory to make the playoffs. Even if Busch doesn't do that his form should be strong enough to make it on points provided there is not more than a dozen winners.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Busch can win anywhere, but in recent seasons he has not shown to be excellent anywhere. Busch's road course past is better than most and RCR did win two road course races last year.

Chase Elliott - #9 NAPA Auto Parts/Hooters/Llumar/Kelley Blue Book/UniFirst Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: 4th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2021)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Elliott was the best driver over the entire 2022 season, and clinched the regular season championship with ease. However, Elliott could not continue that output in the playoffs. Elliott will be fine making the playoffs. He should win multiple times in the first 26 events. It is the final ten races that are his greatest concern.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Road courses, plate races, Dover, basically the entire calendar. It is setting up for Elliott to take the inaugural Chicago street course and only adding to his repertoire. 

Aric Almirola - #10 Smithfield Ford

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 20th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 5th (2022)

2023 Playoff Prospects: With one foot into retirement, Almirola leaped back into a full-time return for the 2023 season. Almirola can have a sneaky day. We saw it in 2021 at Loudon, but that is likely his best bet at making the playoffs. Stewart-Haas Racing has struggled seeing consistent results out of any of its cars the last few seasons. It feels unlikely Almirola can be top ten on points and take a playoff spot that way.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Almirola has at least seven top ten finishes at five tracks, Talladega, Richmond, Kansas, Phoenix and Martinsville. 

Denny Hamlin - #11 FedEx Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 5th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2016, 2019, 2020)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Hamlin had a terrible regular season in 2022, but two victories erased the other 24 results. Labeled as the most dangerous 22nd-place team in NASCAR, Hamlin did make a championship four push and was set to have a chance at the title until the most daring move in NASCAR history from Chastain. Hamlin's 2022 regular season results are concerning, but he should be better this year and still be winning races.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Hamlin does lead all active drivers in Daytona 500 victories. He runs well in his home state of Virginia and there are four races there, three in the regular season. 

Ryan Blaney - #12 Menards/Advance Auto Parts/BodyArmor/Wurth/Discount Tire Ford

Team: Team Penske
2022 Championship Finish: 8th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2017, 2020)

2023 Playoff Prospects: The lone 2022 playoff driver without a victory, Blaney had a great season, but just couldn't come out on top. That likely will not happen again. Even if it does, what are the odds of 15 playoff spots being claimed via victory again? Blaney should be set either way.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Blaney had three top five finishes on short tracks last year and six top five finishes on ovals under a mile and a half in length. 

Chase Briscoe - #14 Mahindra Ag North America/High Point/Rush Truck Centers Ford

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 9th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2022)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Briscoe started 2022 strong then had about 20 lackluster races before sneaking his way into the semifinal round and having a shot at the championship four. At his best, Briscoe feels certain for a playoff spot, but what most of 2022 shows us is a driver who could come up short. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Phoenix, for starters, but he has run well at the Bristol dirt race and his road course form is respectable. 

Riley Herbst - #15 SunnyD Ford

Team: Rick Ware Racing
2022 Championship Finish: N/A (10th in NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This will be his Daytona 500 debut.

2023 Playoff Prospects: Herbst will return to NASCAR Grand National Series to run full-time with Stewart-Haas Racing. Herbst will also run at Talladega in April. J.J. Yeley will drive this car at some point this season, and Todd Gilliland will compete in five races in this car when Zane Smith is in the #38 Ford for Front Row Motorsports. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: A division lower than the Cup Series.

A.J. Allmendinger - #16 Action Industries/Nutrien Ag Solutions/Celsius Chevrolet

Team: Kaulig Racing
2022 Championship Finish: Ineligible (5th in NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2009, 2017)

2023 Playoff Prospects: With newfound confidence after a handful of successful seasons in NASCAR's second division, Allmendinger is back in the Cup Series full-time. As a part-time Cup driver, Allmendinger won at Indianapolis. He should win at least one road course race, but Allmendinger is a better driver everywhere. He should get Kaulig Racing its first playoff participant. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: All the road courses. However, he also had top ten finishes at Gateway, Bristol, Las Vegas and Homestead last year in Cup, and Allmendinger has won at Las Vegas, Michigan, Bristol and Talladega in the Grand National Series.

Chris Buescher - #17 Fastenal/Fifth Third Bank/Castrol/Violet Defense Ford

Team: Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 21st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2020)

2023 Playoff Prospects: It wasn't just Keselowski that struggled for RFK in 2022. Buescher had one good day at Sonoma, but never really looked like a playoff driver. He won at Bristol in the playoffs after a brilliant race. If RFK can time its best races right, Buescher could find himself in the playoffs, but it still feels like a stretch.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Either a short track or a road course.

Martin Truex, Jr. - #19 Bass Pro Shops/Auto Owners Insurance/Reser's Fine Foods/Interstate Batteries Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 17th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2016)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Truex, Jr. was in the top five in points at the end of the regular season, but without a victory and with 15 winners and Blaney ahead of him, Truex missed the playoffs. Truex probably should have won four regular season races last year. This team will not let that many results slip through its fingers. He will be back and he can go far.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Prior to last season, Truex was on a run winning at short tracks. His road course form took a dip last year.

Christopher Bell - #20 DeWalt/Rheem/SiriusXM/Interstate Batteries Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 3rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 16th (2021)

2023 Playoff Prospects: If it wasn't for Chastain, Bell likely would have been the breakout driver of the season, also making the championship four, but winning three races, including in two must-win situations in the playoffs. Bell should make it back in the field of 16. He is a championship sleeper to many.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Bell's four Cup victories have been on two rovals (Daytona and Charlotte) and two low-banked racetracks (Loudon and Martinsville). But he also had top five runs at Austin, Dover, Kansas, Charlotte, Pocono, Richmond, Darlington, Kansas and Bristol last year. 

Harrison Burton - #21 Motorcraft/Quick Lane/Menards Ford

Team: Wood Brothers Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 27th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 39th (2022)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Burton had two top ten finishes all season in 2022. He finished outside the top 25 in a third of the races and outside the top twenty in 22 of 36 races. He needs to make a massive improvement to be a playoff driver or just have won fortunate day where he finishes first, other 25 races be damned. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Uh... until further notice he is a plate race or bust driver.

Joey Logano - #22 Shell/Pennzoil Ford

Team: Team Penske
2022 Championship Finish: 1st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2015)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Logano's worst form is far better than most driver's best form. The playoffs are not a question of if he qualifies, but when he qualifies and how far does he go. For Logano, this season is about becoming the first driver in a over a decade to successfully defend a title. He is more than capable of doing it.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Since 2018, the only tracks Logano has won at multiple times are Las Vegas and Phoenix. However, he has also won the inaugural races on the Bristol dirt track and Gateway. There is an inaugural Chicago street course race this season. Maybe we pencil him in for that.

Bubba Wallace - #23 Door Dash/McDonald's/Columbia/Roo Insurance/MoneyLion Toyota

Team: 23XI Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 19th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2018, 2022)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Coming off his best championship finish, Wallace has high expectations for this season. A playoff spot appears to be the minimum in the eyes of many. He looked better on all tracks last year and picked up his second career victory at Kansas in September. Pit lane errors did set this team back and cost it results. Wallace could be on the cusp of making it on points and a victory would be the best way to assure himself a playoff spot.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Wallace finally got top five finishes elsewhere then ovals 2.5 miles or greater in length in 2022. He won at Kansas and very well could have swept those races. He did great at Nashville and Michigan.

William Byron - #24 Axalta/Valvoline/Liberty Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: 6th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 21st (2019)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Byron started the 2022 season looking like the man to beat but then had only one top ten finish in the final 18 regular season races and he went 20 races between top five finishes. He is more than capable making the playoffs, but it still isn't clear what William Byron we will get over an entire season.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Byron's top five finishes last year were Las Vegas, Atlanta, Richmond, Martinsville and Bristol. 

Justin Haley - #31 LeafFilter Gutter Protection/Celsius/Cirkul Chevrolet

Team: Kaulig Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 22nd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 13th (2020)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Perhaps the most overlooked driver in the 2022 season, Haley only had four top ten finishes all season, but three of those were top five results. It feels like Haley will be a playoff outside on finishes alone. A second career Cup victory in 2023 would not shock anybody, but it is not something anyone is expecting.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Haley had a great run at Volusia Speedway Park in dirt modifieds last week. Keep an eye on him at the Bristol dirt race, but remember how great he is at plate races and he isn't bad on road courses either. 

Michael McDowell - #34 Love's Travel Stops Ford

Team: Front Row Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: 23rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2021)

2023 Playoff Prospects: McDowell had his best season in Cup competition, even better than 2021 where he won the Daytona 500 and made the playoffs. He had 12 top ten finishes, however, only two of those were top five results. He also had nine finishes outside the top 25. It is still win-or-bust for his playoff chances.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona, Talladega, Atlanta and I guess the road courses.

Todd Gilliland - #38 Speedy Cash/Black's Tire & Auto/Georgia Peanut Commission/Boot Barn Ford

Team: Front Row Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: 28th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 33rd (2022)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Slimmer than most as it was announced Zane Smith will drive the #38 Ford in six races this season in place of Gilliland. If Gilliland does not attempt all the regular season races he will not be eligible for the playoffs. With Gilliland taking over the #15 Ford for five of the races Smith will drive this car, all Gilliland need is to find a ride for Talladega in April to remain eligible. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Gilliland is quite good on road courses and we saw him finish fourth in the messy race on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course last season. Combined with Front Row Motorsports' "plate race or bust" mentality, and Atlanta now being another plate race, he should have a handful of days where he has a shot. 

Ryan Preece - #41 Haas Automation/United Rentals Ford

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2022 Championship Finish: Ineligible (18th in NASCAR Truck Series) 
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 6th (2021)

2023 Playoff Prospects: After spending 2022 bouncing around part-time rides in the lower two divisions, and winning in the Truck Series, Preece is back in a full-time Cup seat. Stewart-Haas Racing is a big step up from JTG Daugherty Racing's second car, but Preece must show he can be a consistent driver. He has been good for a smattering of top ten finishes here and there, but has yet to do it on a regular basis. This should be his best championship finish in his Cup career, but it could still be well short of a playoff spot.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: The only tracks where Preece has multiple top ten finishes in the Cup Series are Daytona (three, including two in the Daytona 500) and Talladega. However, his short oval form should be better this season.

Noah Gragson - #42 Sunseeker Resorts Chevrolet

Team: Legacy Motor Club
2022 Championship Finish: Ineligible (2nd in NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 31st (2022)

2023 Playoff Prospects: The little hell-raiser has moved to the Cup Series. In four full-time seasons at NASCAR's second level, Gragson showed tremendous skill and pace, but could also shoot all of his toes off multiple times in a season. It is hard to remember a driver with that much aggression at a lower level that came in and immediately set the Cup Series on fire. It normally backfires on that driver. He could steal a victory, but it is difficult to imagine Gragson having the consistency to be a playoff driver.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Gragson was good on the rough surfaces of Darlington and Homestead in the Grand National Series, and he also has done well at Martinsville running in the lower levels.

Erik Jones - #43 Allegiant Chevrolet

Team: Legacy Motor Club
2022 Championship Finish: 18th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2019)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Jones had a sprinkling of impressive runs throughout the 2022 season. There just weren't enough to be a serious playoff threat and the number of winners didn't help. His Southern 500 victory came one race too late for him to make the playoffs, but if he builds off those results in 2023, Jones can take one of the final playoff positions.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Darlington! Jones is great at Darlington. He has a good track record at Talladega and his Fontana form is worth keeping an eye on.

Tyler Reddick - #45 Monster Energy/McDonald's/SiriusXM/MoneyLion Toyota

Team: 23XI Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 14th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2017)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Any driver that can win three times with Richard Childress Racing likely should be a playoff driver anywhere else. Reddick will test that theory at 23XI Racing. Reddick proved he could win races last year. 23XI proved it could win races last year. This pairing should get in the playoffs and could be the surprising championship four participant this year. The schedule lines up right for Reddick.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Reddick has only won three times, and twice on road courses, but he feels like a borderline anywhere guy. He should have won at Fontana last year. He should have won the Bristol dirt race last year. Homestead could be the race that puts him in the championship four this year. He could sweep Darlington and no one would be stunned.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. - #47 Kroger Chevrolet

Team: JTG Daugherty Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 26th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2014)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Stenhouse did have a run of four consecutive top ten finishes last year. The problem is he had finished outside the top 25 in the seven races prior to that stretch and then he didn't have another top ten result in any of the final 22 races. His only hope of the playoffs is one of these flukey one-off races, a plate race or the Bristol dirt race. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona, Talladega, Atlanta, Bristol dirt.

Alex Bowman - #48 Ally Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: 16th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 11th (2019)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Bowman looked like Hendrick Motorsports' best driver through the first 14 races, the he fell off a cliff only for a concussion at Texas to end his playoff run, forcing him out of the car for five races. He is good enough to take a playoff spot, but it has yet to be seen if he is good enough to do anything with it.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Bowman's seven career Cup victories have come on six different track sizes. And yet, he hasn't won on a road course, where he has some impressive performances.

Cody Ware - #51 Biohaven Ford

Team: Rick Ware Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 32nd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 17th (2022)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Along with Corey LaJoie, Ware's playoff hopes increased exponentially now that the top 30 requirement has been removed for playoff qualification. However, Ware's best hope is the entire field being taken out in an accident due to a rainstorm. His only top ten finish was sixth in that summer Daytona race. He was outside the top 25 in 27 races and outside the top 30 in 15 of those. His playoff hopes are still microscopic. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona and Talladega. I am not even going to include Atlanta. 

Ty Gibbs - #54 Interstate Batteries/Monster Energy Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2022 Championship Finish: Ineligible (2022 NASCAR Grand National Series champion)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This will be his Daytona 500 debut.

2023 Playoff Prospects: Gibbs had an impressive two seasons in NASCAR's second division. But, like Gragson, Gibbs brings a hot-headedness that could make for difficult days at the Cup level. The talent is there and the team is there for Gibbs to make it, but at 20 years old maturity will be the greatest deciding factor into whether or not he makes it. Then again, all it takes is one victory to paper over immature mistakes.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Gibbs' best days in the second division were on road courses. As a Cup rookie, those are his best places for victory. 

Ty Dillon - #77 Ferris Mowers Chevrolet

Team: Spire Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: 29th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 6th (2019)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Dillon's best championship finish is 24th. He has slid from Germain Racing to a few races with Gaunt Brothers Racing to Petty GMS Racing to Spire Motorsports. His Cup career is not heading in the right direction. His hope is to steal a plate race or be in the right place when a rainstorm passes over a track.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona, Talladega, Atlanta, and maybe Bristol dirt. Dillon has also been good in the wet on road courses. Any wet race and he could be a surprise.

B.J. McLeod - #78 Live Fast Motorsports Chevrolet

Team: Live Fast Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: Ineligible (57th in NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 19th (2019)

2023 Playoff Prospects: McLeod will run most of the races in the #78 Chevrolet, but he will split this car with at least Josh Bilicki, meaning McLeod will not be playoff eligible. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Like Ware, Daytona and Talladega.

Daniel Suárez - #99 CommScope/Freeway Insurance/Worldwide Express/Jockey/Kubota Chevrolet

Team: Trackhouse
2022 Championship Finish: 10th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 18th (2022)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Suárez picked up a popular first career victory last year at Sonoma, and he was a regular at the front over the summer. However, despite those results, Suárez never ranked higher than 12th in points during the 2022 season. If he is living on the bubble, he could find himself on the wrong side of the cutline if his results are slightly off.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Suárez has three top five finishes at Watkins Glen. His Pocono record is also good.

Non-Chartered Teams

Chandler Smith - #13 Quick Tie Products Chevrolet

Team: Kaulig Racing
2022 Championship Finish: N/A (3rd in NASCAR Truck Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his Daytona 500 debut.

2023 Playoff Prospects: Smith will move up to the NASCAR Grand National Series to drive for Kaulig Racing.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Along with the second series program, Smith will also attempt Austin, the autumn Talladega race and the Phoenix finale in the Cup Series. 

Zane Smith - #36 Centene/Ambetter Heath Ford

Team: Front Row Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: N/A (2022 NASCAR Truck Series champion)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his Daytona 500 debut.

2023 Playoff Prospects: Smith will defend his Truck Series championship while running part-time in the NASCAR Cup and Grand National Series.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: In the Truck series, but he will drive the #38 Front Row Motorsports Ford at Phoenix in March, Talladega in April, Sonoma, Texas and the Charlotte roval in place of Todd Gilliland. 

Conor Daly - #50 BitNile Chevrolet

Team: The Money Team Racing
2022 Championship Finish: 40th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his Daytona 500 debut.

2023 Playoff Prospects: Daly will run full-time in the NTT IndyCar Series.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daly plans on running a handful of Cup races this season. His only announced appearances at the moment are Daytona, Austin and Indianapolis. I would rank Indianapolis as his best chance for victory.

Austin Hill - #62 Beard Oil Chevrolet

Team: Beard Motorsports
2022 Championship Finish: Ineligible (6th in NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his Daytona 500 debut.

2023 Playoff Prospects: Hill will return to the NASCAR Grand National Series driving for Richard Childress Racing full-time.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Hill will run six races for Beard Motorsports in 2023, both Daytona races, both Talladega races, Chicago and Michigan.

Travis Pastrana - #67 Black Rifle Coffee Company Toyota

Team: 23XI Racing
2021 Championship Finish: N/A
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This could be his Daytona 500 debut.
2023 Playoff Prospects: Pastrana will look to make his NASCAR Cup Series debut. He last competed in a NASCAR national series in September 2020 at Las Vegas. His last start in NASCAR's second division was in 2013.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: The Daytona 500 is Pastrana's only announced attempt this season.

Jimmie Johnson - #84 Carvana Chevrolet

Team: Legacy Motor Club
2022 Championship Finish: N/A
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2006, 2013)

2023 Playoff Prospects: Johnson returns to NASCAR Cup Series competition in a part-time role. His total number of races has yet to be determined.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: At the moment, the only races we know Johnson will attempt are Daytona and Chicago.

Playoff Driver Predictions

1. Denny Hamlin

2. Kyle Larson

3. Martin Truex, Jr. 

4. Joey Logano

5. Tyler Reddick

6. Kevin Harvick

7. Chase Elliott

8. Kyle Busch

9. Christopher Bell

10. Ryan Blaney

11. Ross Chastain

12. A.J. Allmendinger

13. William Byron

14. Austin Cindric

15. Alex Bowman

16. Bubba Wallace

Daytona 500 qualifying takes place tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET. The front row for the Daytona 500 will be decided while the fastest two non-chartered entries will lock-in their spots for Sunday's race. The first Daytona 500 qualifying race will be run at 7:00 p.m. ET on Thursday February 16 with the second race following at 8:45 p.m. ET. There will be one 50-minute practice for the Cup teams at 5:35 p.m. ET on Friday February 17 before a final 50-minute practice at 10:30 a.m. on Saturday February 18.

The 65th running of the Daytona 500 is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday February 19.