We are down to 25 days until the 2023 NTT IndyCar Series season opens from St. Petersburg. Back for another IndyCar campaign is Chip Ganassi Racing. The championship-winning organization will have four cars, three returning drivers and two new drivers splitting one entry. It introduces a rookie to North America's premier open-wheel racing series while also keeping a veteran on the grid, though in a reduced role after over a decade as a full-time competitor.
At First Glance... Forget the future, Ganassi is here to win now
Ever since Scott Dixon won his fifth title, I started wondering about Chip Ganassi Racing's future. After the 2018 season, Dixon had won five titles, three in a six-season stretch, and he was on top of the world. But Dixon had been Ganassi's lone bullet for a number of seasons.
Up to that point in the DW12-era, Ganassi had won 20 races and Dixon was responsible for 17 of those victories. A Ganassi driver not named Scott Dixon had not won a race since the 2014 season finale. Dixon was 38 years old, plenty of years left in the tank, but it was time to start planning for the future.
Ganassi tried to do that, but it didn't really stick. Ed Jones came in for a season before Felix Rosenqvist joined the team. Rosenqvist won a race in 2020, looked ready to take the torch, but he left for McLaren after only two seasons with Ganassi. At the end of 2020, Dixon had picked up another championship, and the New Zealander's share of Ganassi victories increased to 23 of 27.
In 2021, it looked like Ganassi had finally found its future. In year one with the organization, Álex Palou won on debut, scored three victories total and took the championship. All appeared set... and then Palou openly rejected Ganassi's announcement to retain the Spaniard for the 2023 season, as Palou hoped to join McLaren in a role that would include a Formula One opportunity.
Lawyers gathered, and ultimately we will see Palou return to Ganassi for the 2023, but it will be likely his final season with the team, and Ganassi's future appears again to be uncertain.
But forget the future, Ganassi is ready to win now. Scott Dixon won two races last year and again went to the final race with a shot at the title before finishing third. Palou, even after all the tension within the Ganassi camp, still wound up fifth in the champion and won the 2022 season. Marcus Ericsson emerged as a stellar driver and won the Indianapolis 500, leading the championship for the middle chunk of the season before finishing sixth in the championship, only four points behind Palou.
All three drivers are back and, frankly, they could all blow the doors off the competition in 2023. Dixon is still around, but he is no longer the lone bullet. In the last two seasons, he has accounted for only three of Ganassi's ten victories. Palou leads the way with four and Ericsson is level with three.
This is the most balanced Ganassi team we have seen since the Dario Franchitti-Dixon partnership. After what could have been a sour divorce, Palou and Ganassi stuck through the 2022 season and ended on a high note. Ericsson keeps proving to be a capable set of hands. Throw in Takuma Sato on the ovals and the team will be four deep in five races. Consider what Palou did in year one with the team and Marcus Armstrong's road/street course focused rookie season could yield eye-catching results that leaves the competition flummoxed about how Ganassi found another gem.
Any of Ganassi's three full-time drivers could end up as champion. All five drivers could win at some point this season. The future can wait for the moment. Ganassi has his group of winners ready to go.
2022 Chip Ganassi Racing Review
Wins: 4 (Indianapolis 500, Toronto, Nashville, Laguna Seca)
Poles: 1 (Indianapolis 500)
Championship Finishes: 3rd (Scott Dixn), 5th (Álex Palou), 6th (Marcus Ericsson), 21st (Jimmie Johnson)
Marcus Ericsson - #8 Huski Chocolate Honda
Numbers to Remember:
5: Top five finishes in the first ten races of 2022
0: Top five finishes in the final seven races of 2022
19.047: Percentage of top five finishes in 63 IndyCar starts
What does a championship season look like for him?
Ericsson's 2022 season is the blueprint for a championship. The second half just has to be better. If you told Ericsson he would have the same results through the first ten races of 2023 that he had in 2022, I bet he would take it and bet on himself that he can improve in the final seven races to take the championship.
He led the championship by 35 points through ten races. Give him a do-over and Ericsson probably closes out that championship, but it would require him finishing in the top five and likely doing it at least four times, but probably needing five and at least one more victory, especially now that the Indianapolis 500 will not be double points.
The strange thing is Ericsson did not driver poorly in the final seven races of the 2022 season. He had four top ten results, two 11th-place results and his worst finish was 14th. It would help to eliminate those non-top ten finishes but it would be helpful if those other oval races were also top five finishes. Change his final stat line to two victories, six podium finishes, 11 top five finishes and 14 top ten results, that could be enough for the championship.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Anything in the top ten is realistic, from championship with a half-dozen victories to tenth with underwhelming results. Ericsson has improved in each of his four IndyCar seasons. For most of the last two seasons we have seen a good driver. He won the Indianapolis 500 last year, but he probably only has about three races where he has been an actual threat for victory. Indianapolis is one of them and his other two victories aren't.
He caught breaks to win at Belle Isle and Nashville in 2021. He was more of a contender at Mid-Ohio in 2021, pushing Josef Newgarden to the wire and coming home in second. Throw in Road America in 2022 and that is about it. We haven't seen Ericsson be a weekly threat yet in his IndyCar career. He has led more than 15 laps in a race only once. He has won three times but we have yet to see him be the man to beat in a race. We haven't had a weekend yet where entering it we have thought hands down Marcus Ericsson is the man to beat. That could happen this year but I am not sure it will be a regular thing. If it isn't a regular thing, at best he will be sixth in the championship for a third consecutive season.
Scott Dixon - #9 PNC Bank Honda
Numbers to Remember:
16: Top five championship finishes in the last 17 seasons
100: Percentage of laps completed in two of the last three seasons
128: Consecutive races ranked in the top ten of the championship. Dixon's last race outside the championship top ten was NOLA Motorsports Park in 2015.
114: Of those 128 races has seen Dixon ranked inside the top five of the championship
What does a championship season look like for him?
We have seen it six times before. Three victories or four victories or maybe five with possibly three on the spin to start the season or even Dixon can wait to win until July and still somehow emphatically take this championship convincing us it was a foregone conclusion. He will need about nine or ten podium finishes but make it look easy in the process, 12 or 13 top five results and top ten finishes in pretty much all the races, maybe he has one bad day all season, but it is still plenty to take home the championship.
Dixon can win the title any of a number of ways. We know what he can do.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
The last two seasons were kind of uncomfortable to watch for Dixon, not because they were notably bad, but Dixon wasn't the clear lead Ganassi driver for most of that time, and after nearly a decade of counting on Dixon to be the Ganassi guy, it was jarring. He only won once in 2021 and then went over 14 months before he won again. We aren't used to seeing that. We saw Dixon discover his best form in the final half of 2022. He had six top five finishes in the final nine races with his worst result being 12th. He was the best Ganassi driver during that stretch by a long ways.
Our concern is Dixon is 42 years old. He turns 43 in the middle of this season. Nothing lasts forever, and every driver has a fall off at an older age. A.J. Foyt, Mario Andretti, Michael Andretti, they all had it. Dixon has appeared to be far from a drop off but it can sneak up on the best of them. The guy lives in the top five of the championship. That will remain the expectation, and until seen otherwise, we shouldn't think this is the season he heads in the wrong direction.
Álex Palou - #10 American Legion Honda
Numbers to Remember:
8.444: Average finish in the nine races prior to July 12, 2022
7.5: Average finish in the eight races after July 12, 2022
42.42: Percentage of podium finishes in 33 starts with Chip Ganassi Racing
What does a championship season look like for him?
It looks like Palou being the hardest man to beat in IndyCar. It is him starting strong and never releasing his grip. An early victory, early visits to the podium, another strong Indianapolis 500 and then repeating that throughout the rest of the season. An Indianapolis 500 victory would put Palou on a pedestal that will be daunting for anyone to topple.
A championship season is going to require three or four victories, spread over ovals, road courses and street courses. Palou is going to be claiming residency in the top five. The bad days will not exist. That mistake isn't going to happen. It will feel inevitable around Nashville that the championship is Palou's. There will be one race that has us second guessing but then Palou responses with four ruthless finishes, no one is able to gain any ground and for the second time in three years, the title is his.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Considering how Palou finished 2022 after it looked like he possibly ran himself out of a ride midseason, I don't think we are going to see a bad year from Palou, at least not a bad year because of his own ability. He isn't going to mail it in this year. He isn't going to quit on this team even if he will be turning in his ID badge after Laguna Seca. He is going for victories and likely will be a contender until the very end.
Anything less than that will not be far off, almost identical to his 2022 season, good, much better than most, but not fantastic enough. In two years with Ganassi, Palou hasn't really put a wheel wrong. His worst results have been mechanical failures or being taken out by others. We are not going to see Palou start tripping over himself now. If he has a bad season it is because the rest of the grid nails it. At worst, Palou will be at the back of the top ten, between eighth and tenth, but if he finishes in any of those positions we will still be pointing out how little Palou did wrong.
Marcus Armstrong - #11 Ridgeline Honda
Numbers to Remember:
13: Average championship finish in three Formula Two seasons. Armstrong was 13th in the championship in all three of his seasons
1: Podium finish in 34 Formula Two feature race starts. It was the first feature race in the 2020 season opener at the Red Bull Ring, Armstrong's Formula Two debut
357.6364: Average number of points for IndyCar Rookie of the Year since 2012
29.803: Average number of points Armstrong would need to score per start to reach that 357.6364 point total.
30: Points paid for a fifth-place finish at all IndyCar races.
What does a championship season look like for him?
This is where it gets tricky because Armstrong is only committed to run the 12 road/street course events. It is probably going to take about 540 points to win the championship. Split that over 12 starts and Armstrong will have to average about 45 points per start. That is basically alternating winning and second-place over his 12 starts. That is asking for a lot for any driver let alone a rookie that has never competed on any of these tracks before. If Armstrong does that, Ganassi will have McLaren poaching another driver from its organization.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
It is a bit of a hazy picture of Armstrong. He was good in Formula Two, but not really great. He never won a feature race, the races where the grid is set via qualifying speed. The sprint races, set via invert of either feature race results or qualifying speeds, are where Armstrong had his success, meaning he was either sixth, seventh or eighth in either the feature or qualifying and, when he was moved to the front, he hung on.
In the feature races, we didn't see Armstrong regularly competing for podium results, suggesting that raw pace might not be there. His average feature race result in 2022 was 11th. Over 38 Formula Two feature races, his average improves slightly to 10.3421.
Testing results looked good at The Thermal Club. He adjusted well, ending in the top ten regularly and remaining in the ballpark with his mighty teammates. There will still be growing pains, like we saw with Christian Lundgaard. Between the circuits, the alternate compound tires and lack of driving components, there will be races Armstrong starts well but falls off, but there will also be weekends he is on point.
Romain Grosjean did the road/street course only schedule (sans a late cameo at Gateway) and it got him 15th in the championship with a shot at rookie of the year into the finale. I don't think Armstrong will be that good. Grosjean also had three podium finishes that season. The top twenty in the championship is in play and I cannot rule out Armstrong hitting it on two or three weekends and finding his way into the top five.
Takuma Sato - #11 Ridgeline Honda
Numbers to Remember:
207: Races started out of the last 208 races (missed the 2020 Texas season opener due to a qualifying accident)
39: Consecutive starts without a podium finish, Sato's longest drought since a 40-race stretch between São Paulo 2013 and Belle Isle II in 2015. It is the second longest podium drought in his IndyCar career
16.0: Average finish in 2022, his worst since averaging 16.0 in 2013
16.2: Average finish on ovals in 2022
14.959: Career average finish on ovals (74 starts)
What does a championship season look like for him?
Near impossible now that the Indianapolis 500 is no longer double points. Sato will only be running the five oval races. If he wins all five, and we still do not know how many points will be available in Indianapolis 500 qualifying (if any extra are awarded in the first place), and lets just say Indianapolis 500 pole position remains 12 points, the most Sato could score is 281 points. That would have only placed Sato in 17th in the championship last year.
A championship season would mean either Sato becomes a full-time driver at some point during the season or every other driver comes down with a severe illness that prevent those drivers from running more than five races in 2023 and none of them win five times with maximum points each time.
It is easier to say a championship isn't going to happen for Sato in 2023.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Considering Sato is a two-time Indianapolis 500 winner, many have high expectations for Sato in this role. It is a great team. It just won the Indianapolis 500. Pretty much the entire Ganassi organization was toward the front at Indianapolis last year. Sato is in the right place, but I think we have to take a step back and realize while Sato has won the Indianapolis 500 twice, in 13 Indianapolis 500 starts he has only three top ten finishes. The other was third in 2019. Yes, he nearly won in 2012 while battling Dario Franchitti, but his average finish in the event is 16.6923. We have seen Sato excel at Indianapolis, but we have also seen him be rather anonymous in the famed event more times than not.
Sato could get strong results and none of it would be surprising. He ended the 2022 oval season with a tenth and a fifth in the second Iowa race and at Gateway respectively. There will be at least one or two races where Sato is around the front. It will not be all five races. There will also be at least one or two races where we forget he is in the field. As for where he ends up in the championship? He will score between 65-85 points. With the number of full-time drivers this season, Sato will be 28th or 29th. Somewhere just inside the top 30.
The fun battle will be who is the best oval-only driver in 2023, Sato or Ed Carpenter?
The 2023 NTT IndyCar Series begins on Sunday March 5 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC and Peacock will have coverage of the race starting at noon.
