After a fractured week that saw the first two days of Indianapolis 500 practice considerable shortened due to rain, the second two days were practical run in full, with Friday running completely uninterrupted from weather after it appeared it would be a lost day from the start of the week.
Practice is over. Qualifying is upon us. The teams will get a chance to shakedown their cars Saturday morning but come 11:00 a.m. ET the 34 entries will line up to begin time trials for the 108th running of this race.
Last year saw breath-taking and record speeds. The expectation is we will see more of the same, if not quicker times from top to bottom. Some of the usual names are on top, but the door is always open for a surprise. At the bottom, most of the names we expected are down there, but you never know what could happen over a ten-lap run around the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
What will it take to win pole position?
Last year, Álex Palou took pole position with a four-lap average of 234.217 mph, a 0.171 mph increase over Scott Dixon's 2022 pole position-winning average.
The fastest lap in Fast Friday practice last year was at 232.789 mph, which Takuma Sato set, meaning the difference between the fastest practice lap and the pole average was 1.428 mph, about a 0.6134% improvement. Colton Herta ran the fastest lap in practice yesterday at 234.974 mph, albeit with a tow from Graham Rahal.
If we are to see the same percentage increase from Fast Friday's fastest lap to the pole position-winning average, we would be looking at a four-lap average at 236.415 mph, 0.571 mph off Arie Luyendyk's four-lap track record of 236.986 mph.
If we see a percentage increase in line with what we saw from Dixon in 2022 to Palou in 2023, the pole position average would be around 234.388 mph.
For the last two years at Indianapolis the fastest qualifying run was faster than the fastest lap run in practice in the lead up to qualifying. That had not happened in the ten previous seasons of the DW12-era.
Who is in play for the Fast 12?
Team Penske took the fastest three four-lap averages in Friday practice and the team had three of the fastest four no tow laps. Josef Newgarden led the way. Newgarden had the fastest four-lap average at 234.063 mph and he had the fastest no tow lap at 234.260 mph. Scott McLaughlin was 0.44 mph off in the four lap average, and McLaughlin's best no tow lap was at 234.102 mph.
Will Power had the third-best four-lap average, running at 233.451 mph, and Power's best no tow lap was fourth on the day at 233.864 mph. Behind Power in four-lap average, but ahead of him on best no tow lap, was Alexander Rossi. Rossi ran a four-lap average of 233.355 mph while Rossi was the third of three drivers to run a no tow lap above 234 mph. Rossi's best lap was 234.006 mph.
Rossi led a strong contingent of Arrow McLaren drivers. Three of the four McLaren drivers ranked in the top ten of four-lap averages. Patricio O'Ward was directly behind Rossi at 233.043 mph. Kyle Larson rounded out the top ten at 232.549 mph.
Agustín Canapino was a surprise with the seventh-best four-lap average at 232.875 mph, directly ahead of Santino Ferrucci at 232.867 mph.
Chevrolet controlled much of the day and did end with the top five four-lap averages, but Honda picked up speed as at the afternoon went along. Felix Rosenqvist led the Hondas with a four-lap average at 232.906 mph. Kyle Kirkwood was in ninth at 232.663 mph, and Colton Herta was 11th only 0.001 mph off Larson.
Rinus VeeKay had the 12th-best four-lap average at 232.517 mph, just ahead of Sting Ray Robb at 232.207 while Hélio Castroneves (232.200 mph) and Marco Andretti (232.083 mph) rounded out the top 15.
What will it take to clinch the top 30?
Every car that was in the top 30 last year at the conclusion of Saturday qualifying ran a four-lap average over 231 mph. The top 28 in the no tow report yesterday ran their best lap over 231 mph.
Last year, only 11 drivers completed only one qualifying attempt. Of those 11 drivers, six made the Fast 12 and four qualified 24th or worse. Only Romain Grosjean in 19th was in the middle ground. Thirteen total drivers had their first qualifying run stand as the time that locked them into the top 30. Of the 17 drivers that were locked in a subsequent attempt, six drivers ran their fastest run on their third attempt.
However, three of the bottom four drivers through the first pass through the qualifying line ended up being outside the top 30 and wound up in the last chance qualifying session on Sunday (Jack Harvey, Sting Ray Robb and Graham Rahal). The driver who was on the outside but ended the day in the top 30 was Callum Ilott.
Who is in the most danger of missing the 108th Indianapolis 500?
Nolan Siegel was already struggling for speed prior to his accident during Friday practice, but that contact in turn two, which caused the car to turnover on its side only puts the 19-year-old Californian further in a hole heading into his first Indianapolis 500 qualifying run.
Siegel had been 22nd, 32nd and 33rd through the first three practice days. His accident left him in 34th as the accident occurred before he could really get up to speed. Siegel had the worst average overall practice result this week.
The #18 Dale Coyne Racing Honda team is preparing a back-up car, which was the team's road course car.
Dale Coyne Racing doesn't have a lot to feel comfortable about entering qualifying. Katherine Legge has been 31st, 24th and 33rd over the three days she took to the track. She was 33rd on the no tow report on Friday.
The speed might be better for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, but the team is not expressing any confidence entering tomorrow. There is a tinge of doubt coming from that four-car camp. The four RLLR cars ranked on average overall practice result 14th (Takuma Sato), 23rd (Christian Lundgaard), 28th (Graham Rahal) and 31st (Pietro Fittipaldi). Sato did finish seventh on the no tow report for Friday, but the other three drivers ranked 21st (Lundgaard), 27th (Fittipaldi) and 28th (Rahal).
Kyffin Simpson has the second-worst average overall practice result at 29.667, and the second-worst average no tow report result at 25.667. Conor Daly had the worst average no tow report result at 28th.
Who got a favorable qualifying draw?
Simpson drew third, meaning he will have cooler track conditions and it should give him more speed, perhaps enough to keep him in the top 30 and out of danger of the bubble. Marcus Armstrong hasn't looked in danger of being in the bottom four, but he will be happy to be going out 11th tomorrow.
Many fast cars drew early spots. Six of the top 11 from Friday will be amongst the first ten qualifiers. Kyle Kirkwood drew first ahead of Scott McLaughlin. Will Power and Josef Newgarden are ninth and tenth respectively.
Juncos Hollinger Racing showed good pace over practice and it will have its driver go out fifth (Romain Grosjean) and seventh (Agustín Canapino)
If Siegel's crew can get the backup car ready, he will go out 12th, which could be beneficial. That would be just a little over an hour into qualifying, still cooler than the warmer part of the day, and it could give him a boost compared to some of his competition at the bottom.
Christian Lundgaard would go out two spots after Siegel.
For the sake of making it to North Wilkesboro, Kyle Larson will be going out sixth. Larson will likely know through the first run of attempts whether or not he must stay or if he will be free to fly to North Wilkesboro to compete in the heat races that will decide the starting grid for the NASCAR All-Star Race on Sunday night.
Who is handcuffed thanks to the qualifying draw?
The other three RLLR drivers are not in advantageous positions. Pietro Fittipaldi will go out 21st while Takuma Sato will be out 26th and Graham Rahal is 32nd.
Those three are worried about making the top 30. Patricio O'Ward and Alexander Rossi looked like locks for the Fast 12, but they will qualify 23rd and 34th in line respectively. A second attempt could be necessary for either or both to make the cut.
Meyer Shank Racing did not get a great draw. Felix Rosenqvist was the best no tow Honda on Friday, but he will be 24th in the line, two spots after Tom Blomqvist but nine spots better than Hélio Castroneves.
Chip Ganassi Racing has not looked dangerous this week, and with Álex Palou 25th in line and Scott Dixon 27th, this feels like the year Ganassi's streak of Indianapolis 500 pole positions will come to an end. The team had started on the point the last three years.
What is the Qualifying Order?
1. Kyle Kirkwood
2. Scott McLaughlin
3. Kyffin Simpson
4. Rinus VeeKay
5. Romain Grosjean
6. Kyle Larson
7. Agustín Canapino
8. Callum Ilott
9. Will Power
10. Josef Newgarden
11. Marcus Armstrong
12. Nolan Siegel
13. Santino Ferrucci
14. Christian Lundgaard
15. Marcus Ericsson
16. Linus Lundqvist
17. Marco Andretti
18. Ed Carpenter
19. Katherine Legge
20. Conor Daly
21. Pietro Fittipaldi
22. Tom Blomqvist
23. Patricio O'Ward
24. Felix Rosenqvist
25. Álex Palou
26. Takuma Sato
27. Scott Dixon
28. Sting Ray Robb
29. Colton Herta
30. Ryan Hunter-Reay
31. Christian Rasmussen
32. Graham Rahal
33. Hélio Castroneves
34. Alexander Rossi
What Does the Qualifying Order Tell Us?
Of the six drivers that made it to the Fast 12 in 2023 based on their first attempt's speed, those drivers went out eighth (Alexander Rossi), 11th (Benjamin Pedersen), 21st (Rinus VeeKay), 22nd (Patricio O'Ward), 27th (Santino Ferrucci), 28th (Álex Palou).
Felix Rosenqvist and Scott Dixon each would have made the Fast 12 with the speed from their first attempt, but each went out and improved on a second attempt. Rosenqvist and Dixon went out 13th and ninth respectively on their first attempts.
Twenty-two driver completed multiple attempts last year. Colton Herta and Christian Lundgaard each made four. Herta's fastest run was his first. Lundgaard's best was his third, and that still was not enough to get him into the top 30.
Of the nine drivers to make only three attempts, six had their third attempt be their best and make the top 30. Sting Ray Robb had his third attempt be his best but still not make the top 30. Ryan Hunter-Reay and Will Power each made three attempts, but each had their second run be their fastest.
What is the Weather Forecast?
Qualifying is shaping up to take place over the warmest two days of the week.
It will begin cloudy at 8:30 a.m. on Saturday and the temperatures around 63º F. There will be a light breeze throughout the morning. When qualifying begins at 11:00 a.m., the conditions should be partly cloudy and the temperature will have risen to 70º F. It will go up about four degrees by noon. After that, temperatures appear to increase two degrees an hour until about 3:00 p.m. when it will 80º F. It will settle at 80º F but could sneak up to 81º F in the closing hour.
Sunday is going to be the warmest day of the weekend.
When the pre-qualifying practice begins at noon, it will already be 82º F under sunny skies. Come 3:00 p.m. for the start of the Fast 12, it will be 86º F. Over the last chance qualifying session and Fast Six, it will be settle between 85-86º F, but there is a chance of increased cloud cover over those final two sessions.
The wind should remain favorable each day, never exceeding about four miles per hour and only changing from a South Southeast wind on Saturday to a Western wind come Sunday.
What is the Qualifying Weekend Schedule?
There will be a one-hour practice session Saturday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. The 34 drivers will be split into two groups, each getting 30 minutes of that one-hour session.
Day one qualifying will begin at 11:00 a.m. ET and run until 5:50 p.m. ET. The top 12 drivers at the end of day one will advance to the Fast 12 session on Sunday. Qualifiers 13th to 30th will be locked into the Indianapolis 500, and the bottom four will participate in the last chance qualifying session on Sunday.
The Fast 12 participants will get a one-hour practice session at noon on Sunday with the last chance qualifiers getting an hour of practice starting at 1:00 p.m. The Fast 12 session will be held at 3:00 p.m. Each car will get one attempt. The fastest six advance to the final round to decide pole position. The other six will set rows three and four on the grid.
At 4:15 p.m., the last chance qualifying session will take place. Each car will get at least one attempt, but multiple attempts will be possible with the qualifying session running through 5:15 p.m. The slowest qualifier from this group will not make the 108th Indianapolis 500.
The Fast Six qualifying round will begin at 5:25 p.m. with each entry getting one qualifying attempt to win pole position.
On Monday, a two-hour practice session will held starting at 1:00 p.m.
