Track Walk: 11th Grand Prix of Indianapolis

The fourth round of the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series season has the series at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, running on the road course for the 11th Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Entering the second decade of the lead-off event for the month of May, the Grand Prix of Indianapolis has only twice produced the eventual Indianapolis 500 winner, but last year was the third time the Grand Prix of Indianapolis winner went on to win the series championship, as Álex Palou won from third on the grid, and it was Palou's first victory of his second championship season. Palou has won this season, but in a non-championship race, as there have been three different winners from the opening three championship races.

Coverage

Time: Coverage begins at 3:00 p.m. ET on Saturday May 11 with green flag scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Marty Snider and Kevin Lee will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule

Friday:

First Practice: 9:30 p.m. ET (75 minutes)

Second Practice: 1:10 p.m. ET (60 minutes)
Qualifying: 4:20 p.m. ET 

Saturday:

Warm-up: 11:15 a.m. ET (30 minutes)
Race: 3:30 p.m. ET (85 laps)

* - All sessions will be available live on Peacock

Penske Suspensions

The aftershock from Team Penske's technical infringement of manipulating push-to-pass at the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg are still being felt in the buildup to the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, as Team Penske has announced the suspension of four team members on Tuesday. 

Team president and race strategist for the #2 Chevrolet Tim Cindric, managing director and race strategist for the #12 Chevrolet Ron Ruzewski, the #2 Chevrolet's engineer Luke Mason, and assistant engineer and data specialist for the #12 Chevrolet Robbie Atkinson have been suspended for the next two races, this weekend's Grand Prix of Indianapolis and the Indianapolis 500. 

This suspension was issued from Team Penske and not the NTT IndyCar Series. 

These suspensions cause a significant shakeup for the teams of Josef Newgarden and Will Power, as each lose members from their timing stands. Cindric and Mason will be replaced by Jon Bouslog and Raul Prados respectively on Newgarden’s timing stand while David Faustino, the current race engineer for Power, will add strategist duties to his plate from Ruzewski, with Paulo Trentini Filho filling Atkinson's spot.

Power does sit second in the championship as the Australian was not disqualified from the St. Petersburg race and was elevated to second after the expulsion of Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin from the season opener. The ten-point deduction combined with the eight-point increase from Power moving up two spots shook up to a net-loss of two points. 

As for Newgarden, the 53 points lost puts him in a hole, especially after he finished 16th at Barber Motorsports Park. On 48 points, Newgarden is in a three-way tie for 15th in the championship with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing drivers Christian Lundgaard and Graham Rahal. Newgarden is 53 points off the championship lead.

Going For Seven

The Grand Prix of Indianapolis began with a period of dominance between Simon Pagenaud and Will Power. Entering 2024, six different drivers have won the last six editions of this race, and we are looking at a potential seventh different winner in the last seven years of this race.

Power and Pagenaud begin this streak of different winners. Power won his third Grand Prix of Indianapolis in 2018 while Pagenaud followed with his third in 2019. In 2020, Scott Dixon broke the stranglehold the two drivers had and Dixon's victory was also the first non-Team Penske victory in the event since 2014. 

Rinus VeeKay took a surprise first career victory in 2021 before Colton Herta won in mixed conditions after a timely pit stop and incredible displays of skills over a timed race. Last year, Palou won in convincing fashion and led the most laps. 

There will be 21 drivers entered in this race looking to make it seven consecutive. 

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing poses perhaps the best chance of that seventh consecutive different winner. Last year, Christian Lundgaard started on pole position for this race, but ended up sliding off the podium and finishing fourth. In the summer race on the IMS road course, Graham Rahal started on pole position and he led the most laps, but the fuel conservation from Scott Dixon meant Dixon held off a charging Rahal by 0.4779 seconds at the checkered flag. Lundgaard finished fourth again in the summer race, and the Dane led seven laps as well. 

In five starts on the IMS road course, Lundgaard has three consecutive top five finishes, including a second in the summer race in 2022. He has four consecutive top ten finishes with his worst result being 12th, which was his IndyCar debut in August 2021. In 15 starts on the IMS road course, Rahal has 13 top ten finishes. He has three runner-up finishes on this track, two of them have been to Scott Dixon. 

RLLR was close to victory at this track last year. Arrow McLaren was not far off either. In the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Patricio O'Ward and Alexander Rossi took second and third for the team. Felix Rosenqvist made it three McLaren cars in the top five finishing fifth. In the summer race, O'Ward was third and Rossi was fifth. This organization won the inaugural Grand Prix of Indianapolis a decade ago under different ownership, but the team has not won here since. 

O'Ward has been hit or miss at the IMS road course, four top five finishes and five top ten finishes in ten starts, but he has had three finished of 19th or worse. Rossi's most recent victory was the summer IMS road course race in 2022. In 13 starts, Rossi has four podium finishes, seven top five finishes and ten top ten finishes. 

As much as we make this a team thing, two-thirds of the Team Penske organization can extend this streak to seven consecutive different winners. Josef Newgarden has won on the IMS road course, but that was the first race of the Harvest Grand Prix doubleheader held in October 2020. In ten Grand Prix of Indianapolis starts, Newgarden has one top five finish, a fourth in 2021. Scott McLaughlin has one top five finish in six starts on the IMS road course. 

Felix Rosenqvist is the top driver in the 2024 championship who has not won the Grand Prix of Indianapolis in his career. Fifth in points, Rosenqvist has finished fifth, ninth and fourth in three races this year, and he has started on the front row twice. The Swede was also third in The Thermal Challenge held at the end of March. Rosenqvist has two pole positions on the IMS road course, but he has never stood on the podium with his best finish being fifth on two occasions.

First-Time Winners

While there are plenty of veterans who could extend the Grand Prix of Indianapolis streak, there are also a number of drivers looking for their first career victory that could also make it seven consecutive different winners. Thirteen drivers entered this weekend have yet to win in their IndyCar career. 

One of those drivers was on the most recent podium. Linus Lundqvist had strategy go in his favor at Barber Motorsports Park, and Lundqvist ended up finishing third with a slightly unconventional strategy. It was the Swede's first career podium finish in IndyCar in his sixth career. Lundqvist is the leading rookie in the championship in eighth. He won twice in his four career starts on the IMS road course in Indy Lights competition. 

Lundqvist isn't the only driver in the top ten of the championship without an IndyCar victory, though you are likely surprised to see Santino Ferrucci is that other driver. Ferrucci has finished ninth and seventh in two of the first three races this season, giving the Connecticut-native more top ten finishes in the first three races of 2024 than he had over the entire 2023 season. Ferrucci was in the top ten in his first two starts on the IMS road course, but he has finished outside the top ten in his last four starts here, and he was 23rd in each IMS road course race in 2023. 

Romain Grosjean has been closer than most at winning on the IMS road course, but Grosjean remains winless not only at this track, but every venue on the IndyCar schedule. Grosjean was runner-up in hs first two appearances at the IMS road course. In 2021, he started on pole position for the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and led 44 laps, but the Frenchman lost the lead in traffic and wound up second to VeeKay. That August, Grosjean was a quiet second. He has not finished in the top ten since at this track.

Marcus Armstrong is almost a quarter of the way through his sophomore season, and Armstrong had a few impressive drives as a rookie. In year two, he has only one top ten finish, a ninth at Barber Motorsports Park, but he spent a fair amount of that race in the top five before fuel conservation cost him spots in the closing stint. In 15 career starts, Armstrong is still looking for that first career top five finish let alone victory, but he has six top ten finishes. The IMS road course was not one of the kinder places to the New Zealander. He was 11th here last May and caught in an opening lap incident in August, which saw him take 24th classification.

Jack Harvey scored his first career podium finish on the IMS road course in the 2019 Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Harvey started and finished third that day. He has four top ten finishes on the circuit, and he has started in the top ten eight times in ten starts, but Harvey has finished outside the top ten in his last four trips to the track. It will be his 83rd start, and Dale Coyne Racing enters on a 100-race winless streak. 

The Pivotal Fourth Race

History tells us that by the fourth race of the season, we should know who has a shot at the IndyCar championship and who is out of it. 

For example, all 92 champions since the 1947 American Automobile Association season had at least one top ten finish within the first four races of the season. Seventy-two of those champions were top ten finishers in the first race of the season. Ninety-one of the 92 champions had at least one top ten finish within the first three races. The only champion that did not get his first top ten finish until the fourth race was Danny Sullivan in 1988. Sullivan cracked the top ten with a runner-up finish at Milwaukee that year.

The last eight IndyCar champions had finished in the top ten in the season opener. Only twice since reunification has the champion not finished in the top ten of the season opener. Dario Franchitti's first top ten result was the second race in 2009. Scott Dixon didn't crack the top ten until the third race in 2015.

Of the drivers sitting without a top ten finish through the first three races in 2024, Graham Rahal is the best in the championship in 17th, but the others are Kyffin Simpson, Agustín Canapino, Jack Harvey, Tom Blomqvist, Pietro Fittipaldi, Sting Ray Robb and Christian Rasmussen amongst the regular drivers. Théo Pourchaire has not finished in the top ten in his first two starts this season. 

Going a step farther, 91 of the 92 champions since 1947 have had at least one top five finish within the first four races of the season. Gil de Ferran is the lone exception. De Ferran's first top five result in the 2000 season was his victory at Nazareth, the fifth race of that season. Only one champion since reunification did not finish in the top five in one of the first two races. That would be Dixon in 2015. 

Of the drivers without top five finishes this season, you can add Kyle Kirkwood, Santino Ferrucci, Alexander Rossi, Rinus VeeKay, Romain Grosjean, Christian Lundgaard, and Marcus Armstrong to that list. 

Eighty-seven of 92 champions since 1947 stood on the podium after one of the first four races that season. Jimmy Bryan went the longest before standing on a podium in an eventual championship season. Bryan's first podium result in his 1956 championship year was in the sixth race, a victory in Springfield. The other four drivers, Chuck Stevenson in 1952, Al Unser in 1985, de Ferran in 2000 and Dixon in 2018, all didn't get on the podium until the fifth race of the season. 

Drivers who have fill the first two criteria but to have yet to stand on a podium are Felix Rosenqvist, Marcus Ericsson and Josef Newgarden. 

The first victory is a little more forgiving. Sixty-three of 92 champions won one of the first four races that year. Ten champions did not win until the fifth race with three not winning until race six, seven not winning until race seven, two not winning until race eight, and one not winning until race ten. 

Three champions did not win for the first time until after the tenth race of that season. Scott Dixon won in race 11 of 2013. Al Unser did not win until race 14 of 15 in 1985. Gil de Ferran's first victory in 2001 was race #17. There have also been three winless champions: Tony Bettenhausen in 1958, Tom Sneva in 1978 and Scott Sharp, who was the inaugural Indy Racing League co-champion with Buzz Calkins in 1996. 

The remaining drivers with at least a podium through three races but no victory include Colton Herta, Will Power, Álex Palou and Linus Lundqvist.

Of the 16 champions since reunification, ten of them won one of the first three races, which bodes well for Patricio O'Ward, Scott Dixon and Scott McLaughlin entering this weekend. However, of the six champions that did not win one of the first three races, five of them did not pick up their first victory until race six or later.

It Has Only Been Three Races, But...

Colton Herta leads the IndyCar championship after finishes of third, second and eighth. Herta's 101 points has him a point ahead of Will Power, but it is the first time Herta has led the championship in his IndyCar career. Not only is it the first time Herta has led the championship, but it is the first time an Andretti Global driver has led the championship since Alexander Rossi led after the first Belle Isle race in 2018. It had been 94 races since an Andretti driver led the championship. 

It has only been three races, but Will Power has two podium finishes, two runner-up finishes to be specific. It is the first time Power has had multiple podium finishes within the first three races of the season since 2014 when he opened with a victory and a second. That was Power's first championship season. 

Álex Palou has finished in the top five of all three races, and he has five consecutive top five finishes dating back to last season. Three of those results have been podium finishes. His top ten streak is now up to 21 races and dates back to his victory in the 2022 Laguna Seca season finale. 

Kyle Kirkwood has finished tenth, seventh and tenth in the first three races. It is the first time Kirkwood has finished in the top ten in three consecutive races in his IndyCar career. He still has only two career top five finishes, both of those being his only two career victories at Long Beach and Nashville last year.

Santino Ferrucci has two top ten finishes. It is the first time an A.J. Foyt Racing driver has had two top ten finishes in the first three races since Sébastien Bourdais did it in 2021. It is the sixth time a Foyt driver has done it since reunification. Vitor Meira did it in 2011, Takuma Sato did it in 2013 and 2016, and Tony Kanaan did it in 2018. 

Marcus Ericsson has opened with two finishes outside the top fifteen. Ericsson was fifth at Long Beach, but his mechanical issue at St. Petersburg and rough drive at Barber has the Swede down in 14th in the championship. Prior to the start of the season, he had only finished outside the top fifteen in two of the previous 32 races.

Josef Newgarden has opened with two classifications outside the top fifteen after his disqualification from St. Petersburg. Newgarden was fourth at Long Beach, but he is down in 15th in the championship. Dating back to last season, Newgarden has been classified outside the top fifteen in five of the last seven races.

Kyffin Simpson has finished 12th, 19th and 14th. Simpson was the top rookie finisher at St. Petersburg and the second-best rookie finisher at Barber. He has made up positions from his starting spot in every race this season, including making up 11 spots at St. Petersburg and nine spots at Barber. 

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing's top driver in the championship is Christian Lundgaard in 16th. Graham Rahal is a position behind Lundgaard in 17th. Pietro Fittipaldi is 23rd, and Fittipaldi has finished outside the top twenty in the last two races. Rahal doesn't have a top ten finish yet, the first time he has not had a top ten finish in one of the first three races since 2014.

Road to Indy

For the first time since St. Petersburg, all the Road to Indy series are competing together at the same weekend.

We have a tie at the top of the Indy Lights championship as Nolan Siegel and Jacob Abel have split the first two races of the season, each winning from pole position and leading the most laps while finishing second in the other race. Siegel and Abel are tied on 94 points. They are 29 points ahead of Louis Foster, who went from 21st to fifth at Barber. Michael d'Orlando and Caio Collet are tied on 58 points after each driver has finished fourth and seventh this year.

Myles Rowe sits on 52 points, three points ahead of James Roe, Jr., who was third at Barber, and Reece Gold. Jonathan Browne and Salvador de Alba round out the top ten on 44 points and 42 points respectively.

Indy Lights will race at 6:20 p.m. ET on Friday May 10 and the second race will be at 1:10 p.m. ET on Saturday May 11. Each race is scheduled for 35 laps.

Nikita Johnson has won three of five races this season, including two of three races at NOLA Motorsports Park last month. Johnson has the championship lead on 141 points as the IMS road course is the second of three triple-header weekends on the USF Pro 2000 schedule. 

Hunter Yeany was on the podium of all three NOLA races, and Yeany won the first race that weekend. He sits 39 points behind Johnson while Christian Brooks and Mac Clark are tied on 80 points. Jace Denmark is on 77 points, two ahead of Lochie Hughes, who was first and second at St. Petersburg but finished 19th, 18th and tenth at NOLA.

Frankie Mossman has 66 points, three more than Simon Sikes, who closed out the NOLA weekend with finishes of third and fourth. Liam Sceats is also on 63 points while Danny Dyszelski rounds out the top ten on 58 points.

The first 25-lap race for USF Pro 2000 will be at 3:15 p.m. ET on Friday May 10. There will be two races on Saturday May 11, the first at 7:55 a.m. with the final USF Pro 2000 race of the weekend at noon.

Max Garcia opened the U.S. F2000 season with three consecutive victories and he has not finished worst than fourth this season. Garcia holds the championship lead on 139 points, 16 points ahead of Evagoras Papasavvas, who has finished second in four races and third in the other. Sam Corry has 111 points after he won the second NOLA race. Nico Christodoulou rounds out the top five in the championship on 83 points after he won the third NOLA race.

Joey Brienza was in the top five of all three NOLA races and, on 81 points, Brienza is sixth in the championship. There is 17-point gap to Quinn Armstrong in seventh while Max Taylor and Hudson Schwantz are tied on 63 points. Elliot Cox has 61 points while Ayrton Houk is in tenth on 47 points.

U.S. F2000 will race at 12:10 p.m. on Friday May 10 and at 8:55 a.m. on Saturday May 11. Each race is scheduled for 15 laps.

Fast Facts

This will be the fifth IndyCar race to take place on May 11, and the first since Simon Pagenaud won the 2019 Grand Prix of Indianapolis. 

This year's race falls on the 21st anniversary of Sébastien Bourdais' second career victory at the Lausitzring.

Nine drivers have won on both the oval and road course at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. They are Alex Lloyd, Jack Harvey, Dean Stoneman, Colton Herta, Will Power, Simon Pagenaud, Scott Dixon, Josef Newgarden and Alexander Rossi.

Marcus Ericsson could become the tenth driver to win on both the oval and road course at Indianapolis Motor Speedway this weekend.

Rinus VeeKay, Josef Newgarden and Colton Herta are the only drivers to win at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in Indy Lights and IndyCar. VeeKay and Herta are the only driver to win on the IMS road course in both Indy Lights and IndyCar. Jack Harvey or Linus Lundqvist could join VeeKay and Herta as drivers to win on the IMS road course in Indy Lights and IndyCar.

Rinus VeeKay is the only driver to have a first career IndyCar victory occur on the IMS road course. 

Patricio O'Ward, Sting Ray Robb or Christian Rasmussen could become the first driver to win on the IMS road course in Indy Pro 2000 and IndyCar. 

Kyle Kirkwood could become the first driver to win on the IMS road course in U.S. F2000 and IndyCar.

The average starting position for a winner on the IMS road course is 4.6 with a median of second. 

Scott Dixon's victory from 15th in last August's race was the furthest back an IMS road course race winner has started. 

Two of the last four IMS road course winners have started outside the top ten. Colton Herta won from 14th in May 2022.

The average number of lead changes in an IMS road course race is 8.6 with a median of ten. 

Only three of 15 IMS road course races have had fewer than eight lead changes. Will Power has won two of those races (2017 Grand Prix of Indianapolis and the second Harvest Grand Prix race in 2020). 

Power's victory in the second Harvest Grand Prix race is the only time a driver has led all the laps in an IMS road course race, and it is the most recent time a driver has led every lap in an IndyCar race. 

The average number of cautions in an IMS road course race is 1.8667 with a median of one. The average number of caution laps is 7.615 with a median of five. 

Eight of 15 IMS road course races have featured one caution or fewer.

The most cautions in an IMS road course race was eight in the 2022 Grand Prix of Indianapolis, which ran to a time limit due to rain.

Predictions

Álex Palou makes it two consecutive Grand Prix of Indianapolis victories. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing has a good day, but not a great day. Arrow McLaren's woes continue. People will continue being mad at Team Penske, but one of those cars finish on the podium. Scott Dixon does not cause an accident on lap one. Scott Dixon will not have a stint last 34 laps on fuel. At least two drivers get their first top ten finish of the season. There will be a new championship leader after this race and it will be a driver that has not led the championship yet this season. Sleeper: Romain Grosjean.