Team Penske swept the top three with Will Power leading Scott McLaughlin and Josef Newgarden. Power ran four laps at 233.758 mph. At the back end of the grid, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing improved from 2023, but Graham Rahal will again be in the last chance qualifying session, living the nightmare all over again. Joining him will be Marcus Ericsson, who has not found the speed in the backup car after his practice accident, and the Dale Coyne Racing entries of Katherine Legge and Nolan Siegel.
It should be no surprise both Dale Coyne Racing cars were in the bottom two, especially Siegel after his accident in Friday practice. The team has never shown the speed to think either car could make the top 30. It has felt destined for Coyne to be competing against itself, duplicating what RLLR did last year.
2. As for Rahal, it always felt like it was a possibility that one of the RLLR cars would be in the last chance qualifying session, and Rahal felt the most likely of the team's four drivers. RLLR has shown bursts of speed. You wondered if it was a fluke during practice, but Takuma Sato made the Fast 12. Christian Lundgaard spent most of the day in the low 20s before settling in at 28th when time was up. Pietro Fittipaldi clung to 30th. Rahal couldn't find the speed and again has his back against the wall.
Considering RLLR's struggles, one must wonder if the team should continue entering four cars for Indianapolis. Last year, it had three in the bottom four, and four in the bottom five. This year, Rahal is again needing an outstanding qualifying effort on Sunday to make the race. Lundgaard and Fittipaldi were barely safe. RLLR put in the work. It made steps to avoid repeating its painful 2023. It is better but not good enough considering the effort that was made.
3. Accidents can really dictate how you do in qualifying. Siegel was always going to be in the bottom four and banking on a good run on Sunday to make the race. His accident yesterday only cemented his status as the favorite to be bumped.
Marcus Ericsson was never in the conversation for the last chance qualifying until his accident on Thursday. Andretti Global had a superspeedway dedicated backup car, but it was not enough to break into the top 30. Now the driver who won the Indianapolis 500 two years ago and who was second last year is on the cusp of missing the race. He must beat one driver. It is always easier said than done.
4. It doesn't look good that Honda has the bottom four for a second consecutive year, but it is more than the bottom four. It is the bottom five when including Fittipaldi in 30th. Conor Daly was 29th but Linus Lundqvist and Christian Lundgaard were ahead of him. That is seven Hondas in the bottom eight in qualifying.
Then you look at the top and Honda could only put three in the top 12, and maybe that was one or two too many. Chevrolet had at least three cars lose out on possible top 12 runs due to plenum events. Ed Carpenter looked set for a top 12 run before his engine sputtered, as did Christian Rasmussen. Agustín Canapino was set to steal the show when his car coughed on the third lap and sent Canapino into a fit of rage.
Honda has been good but not as great as Chevrolet and Honda's three Fast 12 participants could come down to Chevrolet beating itself than Honda able to wrestle those away from the bowtie brigade.
5. Engines should get more attention because we have never seen plenum events at this frequency with this engine formula. This formula goes back to 2012. The engines have been adjusted ahead of the introduction of the hybrid system, which will be at Mid-Ohio in July, but the number of these incidents seems like it is greater than an new evolution of the engine ahead of the electrification of the power plant.
After all these years, Chevrolet and Honda are pushing it as far as they can go. Honda had a number of engine changes leading up to qualifying and even on Saturday. Scott Dixon and Rahal had the engine swapped out. Takuma Sato got a new engine ahead of qualifying. You would think 13 years into this era of regulations we would have seen it all, but the manufacturers keep pulling some tricks out of their sleeves.
6. We touched upon Team Penske. This feels like a redemption run. Penske was already looking to improve after failing to put a car on one of the first three rows of the grid in the previous four years. After the events of St. Petersburg, the team is looking to absolve itself and reclaim some integrity. It has swept the front row for the Indianapolis 500 once before. That was 36 years ago. Penske has a great shot at it this year.
7. McLaren's had one of the kookier days we have seen in recent years. Kyle Larson had a plenum event on his first qualifying run and bailed out. Patricio O'Ward had an engine change and then suffered a plenum event on his first qualifying run. Callum Ilott had a respectable first run, but the time was disallowed after it was found his car a non-compliant left rear wheel offset.
Alexander Rossi was the only one who didn't experience any drama, and his best qualifying run put him fourth at 233.069 mph.
Once McLaren got everything settled, Larson qualified sixth at 232.563 mph. Patricio O'Ward took tenth. Ilott ended up 15th. It played out as we thought, three McLarens in the Fast 12 and Ilott as the lone car on the outside. It is shaping up for Penske vs. McLaren for pole position.
8. We know Takuma Sato made the Fast 12, but Kyle Kirkwood was the top Honda in fifth and Felix Rosenqvist was seventh. None of them appear close to pole position. Kirkwood has had good speed all week, as has Rosenqvist, but they are just out of reach of the Chevrolets.
9. Santino Ferrucci made it back to the Fast 12 for a second consecutive year. The competition is a little tougher this year. He will put up a good qualifying run, but it will be an uphill battle to make the Fast Six again.
10. The final hour of qualifying did provide unexpected drama. First, Ryan Hunter-Reay went out on a run that many likely thought would just get him a few more spots. It put Hunter-Reay in the Fast 12, knocking out Álex Palou, a fabulous run for the Dreyer & Reinbold Racing driver. The plenum event did not trip him up as the track cooled.
Then Rinus VeeKay went out as the penultimate qualifier, withdrawing his time, which was 29th. That was fine because it essentially created an open spot in 30th and all VeeKay had to do was complete the run and he would be in the field. VeeKay didn't just get distance from the bubble, he put himself at the sharp end of the grid. A 232.419-mph average earned VeeKay 11th, knocked Colton Herta down to 13th, and the Dutchman's hopes of extending his front row start streak to four consecutive years remains alive.
VeeKay was the fourth qualifier today and he had an accident in turn three. He ended the day streaking into the top 12. That seemed unfathomable. We have seen a number of teams struggle with backup cars, and VeeKay went out and shot right back into the conversation for pole position. Ed Carpenter Racing deserves all the credit in the world, as does VeeKay because Ed Carpenter and Christian Rasmussen didn't come close to making the top 12 with their primary cars and VeeKay put a backup car 11th after it was 29th going into that final attempt.
11. There were plenty of good drivers that didn't make the Fast 12. Colton Herta just couldn't get away from the cutline for the Fast 12. Herta was a late runner in the initial pass through the qualifying line. If you flipped Herta with his teammate Kirkwood, who went out first, I think Herta would have been where Kirkwood ended up. The luck of the draw so to speak.
12. No Chip Ganassi Racing driver made the Fast 12. That is a little bit of a stunner. We didn't see the pace the last two days to think Ganassi was going to get there, but the top 12 was not out of reach. Palou was there. Dixon never got close. Marcus Armstrong and Kyffin Simpson both had respectable runs, but they were two of the first 11 qualifiers. Linus Lundqvist did what he had to with a repaired car and was 27th.
You cannot find many positives from this day for Ganassi. Perhaps the race cars will be better. Palou only goes forward in races. It is not easy winning from 14th, but if anyone can do it, Palou is the man. Scott Dixon has pulled out some impressive results before. We are still over a week from race day, but 21st is not an ideal starting position. Then again, Dixon has made it a habit of winning from unideal starting positions lately.
13. The second half of the grid is kind of what you expect. Marco Andretti did well as a one-off. Hélio Castroneves was 20th. Canapino is upset because he looked set to make the Fast 12, but 22nd is where we expected for him. Sting Ray Robb was 23rd. Christian Rasmussen and Tom Blomqvist did what was needed to lock themselves in. Romain Grosjean was upset in the lack of speed. Juncos Hollinger Racing has been all over the place. One day they look quick, the next day the team is lost in the middle.
14. Race control had a habit of waving attempts off if a driver was clearly not going to improve. It is understandable. Why have a car stay on the track for an extra 45 seconds if the run will not be better? But I think an easy way to control this is to limit attempts to three runs per team.
If we are going to have this many attempts that are not an improvement, limit the teams and make them think twice before going out, especially if they do not have to withdraw their time. I guess the alternative would be these cars would go out and the teams would just be waiving their runs or the track would be empty. Qualifying is now meant to have as many attempts as possible from the start of the day through the gun. The problem is we get a great number of qualifying runs that feel pointless.
Can IndyCar correct that or does it even care?
15. Why does qualifying still end at 5:50 p.m.? That change came a number of years ago because television demanded it. Qualifying until 6:00 p.m. meant the last attempt wasn't over until 6:02 p.m. It would preempt whatever what was following. No network wants that. The 5:50 p.m. ending allows for one more commercial break before moving onto the 6:00 p.m. programming.
But qualifying today was entirely on Peacock. There is no programming following. I don't know if ten minutes would have changed anything, but there is no fear of going long on a streaming service. This could be adjusted for future qualifying sessions.
16. We are going to be in for another tense Sunday. If we are being honest, we know how the last chance qualifying session will play out. Nolan Siegel is a mile per hour away from behind a mile per hour away. If Marcus Ericsson, Katherine Legge and Graham Rahal hit their marks, they will make the race. Anything above 230 mph should do. Siegel hasn't even broken 229 mph yet.
As for pole position, the Penske cars have swept the top three on four-lap runs the last two days. Rossi is close, but even he was nearly 7/10th of a mile per hour off Power's top run today. Perhaps O'Ward could jump up there and maybe VeeKay steals the show again and takes a stunning pole position. We will know in less than 24 hours.
