Sunday, May 19, 2024

First Impressions: 108th Indianapolis 500 Sunday Qualifying

1. The best driver in the world is starting on pole position for the Indianapolis 500. 

It is not the driver you are thinking about. It is not the driver that received the most air time and who left on a helicopter before the Fast Six session was over. 

From New Zealand by way of Australia, Scott McLaughlin ran 234.220 mph over four laps to win pole position for the 108th Indianapolis 500. McLaughlin has already lit up the Mount Panorama Circuit in Bathurst. He left Australia as a three-time champion in Supercars. This is year four in IndyCar. He won the first race of his sophomore season and been a regular winner in IndyCar ever since. Now, he is the fastest man at the greatest track on the circuit.

McLaughlin didn't come from an open-wheel background let alone an oval background. He has been living like a fish out of water for the last four years, and yet he is thriving on dry land. Changing disciplines in motorsports is one thing. McLaughlin moved halfway around the world. The common language might be the same, but moving from Australia to the United States is an eye-opening experience. It would have been easy to get homesick or realize after a year this wasn't for him. He was always going to have suitors should he yearn to return to Supercars. Instead, McLaughlin has become one of the best in IndyCar and calls this place home. 

It helps driving for the best team in IndyCar history. Team Penske was always going to give McLaughlin what he needed to succeed. McLaughlin has made the most of it. It is like he was always meant to be in this place. He could not have gotten the timing any better.

Team Penske has found something that no other team is close to replicating. McLaughlin was able to top the bunch as Penske swept the front row for the second time in Indianapolis 500 history, repeating its 1988 performance. The Penske cars were about 8/10ths of a mile per hour clear of everyone else in the field. It was only qualifying, but that is a gulf to overcome. 

Penske has its 20th Indianapolis 500 within its sights and McLaughlin is leading the way.

2. History is lining it up so the driver with the most pole positions in IndyCar history will never have an Indianapolis 500 pole position. If it wasn't going to happen this year for Will Power when he ran a four-lap average at 233.917 mph, it isn't going to happen. Power will have at least four or five more attempts at it. He could get it, but if he hasn't gotten it now, when will it occur? It is destined to be one of those quirky things in the history book. 

I would bet Power would take a second Indianapolis 500 victory over a pole position, and his stiffest competition will likely come from within the Penske camp, but Power is in a great spot. This season has started out outstandingly well. He has yet to have a bad day. Momentum is on Power's side heading into next week.

3. It has been a rocky month for Josef Newgarden, but he ended up third in qualifying as he looks to defend his Indianapolis 500 victory. Newgarden has embraced this Indianapolis 500 as a reset. After the push-to-pass manipulation penalty from St. Petersburg, Newgarden's results have not match his ability. We know this penalty and violation has shaken Newgarden. We saw it in his press conference ahead of the Barber Motorsports Park weekend. This is a blemish he likely thought he would never have to sport, and he has been learning how to live with it. 

The easiest way is to win. A segment of the viewers will call him a cheater from now until his career is over. That is what the narrow-minded do. Newgarden won 29 races in his career aboveboard. He has two championships and an Indianapolis 500 victory. He knows he is one of the best of the last decade and os pushing to be one of IndyCar's all-time greats. Another Indianapolis 500 victory would wash away the scar of St. Petersburg. He knows what the glory of winning this race tastes like. He is hungry for more, arguably more so than a year ago.

4. Alexander Rossi has been the clear fourth-best driver this past week. The problem is the Penske cars are just out of reach for Rossi. The race is a different animal compared to qualifying. The race will not be flat-out with cars trimmed beyond belief. It is a methodical battle. You cannot win with 200 laps of haymakers. 

Rossi can bob and weave. He has often been in contention. The best example is 2019 where Rossi ran in Simon Pagenaud's shadow and then made a run late. One caution kept Rossi from running away and allowed Pagenaud to outmaneuver him in the closing laps. Put Rossi in that position again and he might come out on top. This is a battle lost, but war has yet to be decided.

5. If you are upset about how much attention Kyle Larson has been receiving, what did you think was going to happen? How many times has the NASCAR Cup Series championship leader come and run the Indianapolis 500? How many times has a driver that has won the Knoxville Nationals and 24 Hours of Daytona come and run the Indianapolis 500? How many times has one of the most accomplished drivers in the world come and run the Indianapolis 500? 

It doesn't happen as often as you think. Add to it that Larson had one of the best cars and qualified fifth. He wasn't going to be lost in the shuffle. Larson has done what was expected from him. Take him and throw him in an Arrow McLaren entry and the Fast 12 was the bare minimum. There hasn't been a car that Larson hasn't got a handle on quickly. Everything he slides behind the wheel of he is quick in. When Larson is stepping into one of the best teams at Indianapolis, he was always going to be at the front. 

Now, attention turns to the race. There will be a few things he will learn one the fly. As much as you can prepare for the Indianapolis 500, about a half-dozen things will come out of the blue. They likely will not trip him up.

6. Three Penskes are the front row ahead of two Arrow McLarens and then A.J. Foyt Racing's Santino Ferrucci in sixth. Bravo to Ferrucci for getting back to the Fast Six when everyone around them got better. Foyt wasn't going to lose everything it had last year, but it was not going to be easy getting back to the Fast Six. Penske couldn't make the Fast 12 last year. All three of those cars found something while Chip Ganassi Racing vanished. It is the nature of Indianapolis, but Foyt held firm. Ferrucci was close last year. He has never finished outside the top ten at Indianapolis. Life is a number's game. The roll of the dice will eventually not go his way. Does he get one more in his favor?

7. It was always going to be brutal for someone. For Nolan Siegel, missing the Indianapolis 500 after brushing the wall on the final qualifying attempt of the last chance qualifying session is a lot for a 19-year-old kid to digest. 

It is not easy to make it to the top level of motorsports, no matter your socioeconomic background. Siegel has won at every level. He has been one of the best drivers in Indy Lights the last two years. Taking a shot at the Indianapolis 500 in a part-time program while still in Indy Lights is a challenge. Doing it when there are 34 entries and with the smallest team on the grid that has been trending in the wrong direction is a monumental ask. 

If there is any reason for optimism, Siegel will be back. IndyCar is going to happen for him. The irons are in the fire. This was a bonus of sorts. If he made the race, it would have been a great experience. There are plenty of things to take away from this week. Siegel knows the car and the track. He knows how a practice week works. He has been through excruciatingly long rain delays. He has had an accident and been on the back foot. It is a terrible feeling, but Siegel can strengthen from this moment. 

You lost today kid, but that doesn't mean you have to like it.

8. This played out how it was written on paper. Dale Coyne Racing was a concern before practice even started. Its lineup was a 19-year-old kid that is still full-time in Indy Lights and a driver that has made one IndyCar start in the previous decade. This was never a combination that injected confidence in both cars making the race especially against the competition around it. 

Once Siegel had his accident on Friday, he became the clear favorite to miss the race. The team gets some credit because it found speed and Siegel's best qualifying run of the week was the one to lead off the last chance qualifying session. However, it was an uphill battle that proved to be too much. 

Seven years ago, Dale Coyne Racing had the fastest car at the Speedway until Sébastien Bourdais lost it in turn two on his qualifying run. It is difficult to keep up and it is only getting tougher. Coyne has some work to do and some decisions to make.

9. As for the drivers that made it, Katherine Legge went ten years between Indianapolis 500 appearances when she arrived last year with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. Legge was the fastest of the four RLLR cars last year. This year, she topped the last chance qualifying session and will start 31st next Sunday. Legge has not been regularly in an open-wheel car since 2012. She has done well in sports cars, but a GT3 machine is much different from an IndyCar, yet it has not held Legge back. Even back in 2013, she was a late entry for Schimdt Peterson Motorsports and was up against Michel Jourdain, Jr., who coincidentally was driving for RLLR, to make the race. Legge pulled it out. She has emerged from these high pressure situations fully intact and in the field on a consistent basis. That should not be overlooked.

10. Marcus Ericsson nearly had the biggest blunder in Indianapolis 500 qualifying. On his first attempt in the last chance qualifying session, Ericsson lifted at the end of the third lap, a complete brain fade on his part. The team had to cool the car down and make a second attempt. Ericsson ended up saving himself and putting the car in 32nd, but it was an unnecessary bit of drama. 

Since his accident Thursday, it has been a trying few days for Ericsson and company. With how close the grid is, it is difficult to find the speed in a backup car to get back to a competitive position. One incident can knock you out of contention. If Ericsson doesn't lose the car on Thursday, he probably isn't in this spot. One moment and you could be on the edge of the worst moment of your career. Ericsson made it through, but this is a long way from his victory two years ago and his runner-up finish last year.

11. Graham Rahal lived the nightmare for another year. It had a different ending. Rahal will start 33rd for a second consecutive year. This time he made the race on his own time. Rahal was not seated on the side of his car wondering how the hell it happened, but I am sure he is wondering what he must do to get some breathing room from this moment. 

RLLR made a step this year. Takuma Sato made the Fast 12. Christian Lundgaard and Pietro Fittipaldi made the top 30, though not by much. The team did so much work, and yet it barely made a difference. RLLR is in a better position, but it must find more.

12. As for the Fast 12 participants, Rinus VeeKay has his worst starting position in the Indianapolis 500. It is seventh. Twenty four hours ago, it didn't look like VeeKay would be close to seventh. Reeling from an accident on his first qualifying run, just getting in the top 30 on the second attempt was mission accomplished for this team. VeeKay went out on a third attempt and put the team in the top 12, guaranteeing it one more run on Sunday. The front row streak is over, but seventh is a fine place to start.

13. Patricio O'Ward will start eighth. Someone is going to miss the Fast 12. O'Ward was the third-best McLaren car, but he is going to be in the conversation at some point next Sunday. He will move forward. He will be running with his teammates. We can make everyone who didn't make the Fast Six into some kind of failure, but they aren't. O'Ward is in a better position than most. 

14. It is hard to see how Honda will beat Chevrolet. Again, the race is different from qualifying, but the best Honda could do was qualify ninth, credit to Felix Rosenqvist who remains on a tear to start the season. We saw Honda outnumbered eight to one in the Fast Nine in 2012, and Honda went 1-2 with two cars that started 16th and 15th respectively, and led 112 of 200 laps. It doesn't feel like we will see that this year. 

The race has evolved, and Honda just doesn't quite appear to have it. Kudos to Takuma Sato and Kyle Kirkwood for also making the Fast 12. Sato has a Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing car starting tenth. RLLR would have bitten your hand off if offered that at the start of the week, although it appears Sato is an outlier from his teammates. Kirkwood drove forward last year from 15th starting position. I think we can see the same from him, but we need to see something either tomorrow in practice or on Carb Day to think a Honda can be a threat on race day.

15. Making the Fast 12 is a victory in its own right for Ryan Hunter-Reay and Dreyer & Reinbold Racing. Nobody had Hunter-Reay in the Fast 12 at the start of qualifying on Saturday morning. He has fewer Indianapolis 500s ahead of him than behind him. Hunter-Reay is a bit of an under-appreciated driver in Indianapolis 500 history. He has won this race, but he has been better than one victory. I don't know if he has another victory in him, but another solid day is something we would all like to see for Hunter-Reay and this team, the only Indianapolis 500-only effort remaining.

16. I am always glad when qualifying is over. This is an exhausting two days. There will be a practice tomorrow and we wish everyone gets through it without any issues. We have a few days to decompress, and then the anticipation will start to build.