Thursday, May 30, 2024

Track Walk: Detroit 2024

The sixth round of the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series has IndyCar on the streets of downtown Detroit for a second consecutive season on the 1.645-mile circuit around the Renaissance Center. Last year's maiden race on this downtown layout saw 189 total passes and 142 passes were for position. Thirty-two percent of the race was run under caution after seven caution periods. The longest green flag run was 35 laps. There were six consecutive caution laps to start race, 13 consecutive caution laps from lap 43 to lap 55, and 13 of 14 laps from lap 82 to lap 95 were run behind the safety car. 

Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 12:00 p.m. ET on Sunday June 2 with green flag scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET.
Channel: USA
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Marty Snider, Kevin Lee and Dillon Welch will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
First Practice: 3:00 p.m. ET (75 minutes)
Saturday:
Second Practice: 9:10 a.m. ET (60 minutes)
Qualifying: 12:15 p.m. ET 
Sunday:
Warm-up: 9:30 a.m. ET (30 minutes)
Race: 12:30 p.m. ET (100 laps)

* - All sessions will be available live on Peacock

The Championship Picture
The Indianapolis 500 might no longer award double points, but with additional qualifying points for the Fast 12 and the general atmosphere of the event, combined with what has already been a tumultuous IndyCar season in the championship after the Team Penske penalties for the St. Petersburg infraction, the best thing to do through the first quarter of the season is reset where we are at before starting the final 12 races of the season. 

Álex Palou remains on top. With his fifth top five finish to open the season, Palou has 183 points and he is 20 points ahead of his Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Scott Dixon in second. Dixon has three top five finishes and four top ten results. 

Despite his accident, Will Power remains third in the championship, buoyed with 11 additional points for qualifying second for the Indianapolis 500. Power does enter Detroit 26 points behind Palou. Patricio O'Ward closed to within 49 points of the championship lead with his runner-up finish. O'Ward's second was only his second top ten finish of the season. The other was his St. Petersburg victory. 

Colton Herta dropped to fifth in the championship, level with O'Ward on 134 points, but O'Ward owns the tiebreaker thanks to his St. Petersburg victory. Scott McLaughlin entered Indianapolis tied for sixth in the championship, and McLaughlin remains sixth in the championship, but he made up some ground to the championship lead, 12 points closer than he was, now 52 points off the top spot. 

An Indianapolis 500 victory in 2024 earns you $4.288 million and a ten-spot leap in the championship, as Josef Newgarden goes from 17th, 91 points behind Palou, to seventh and 61 points off the Catalan driver. 

Alexander Rossi moved up to eighth, 63 points back. Felix Rosenqvist's first retirement of the season sees him slip from fifth to ninth and 67 points off Palou. Despite finishing seventh in the "500," Kyle Kirkwood dropped from eighth to tenth in the championship, but he only lost two spots to the championship. Kirkwood is 68 points from the top.

Christian Lundgaard dropped to 11th on 102 points. Santino Ferrucci moved from 15th to 12th and sits on 95 points. Rinus VeeKay has 87 points from five races, one more than Graham Rahal, ands points more than Marcus Armstrong, whose Indianapolis 500 lasted only six laps. Romain Grosjean is 16th on 79 points. 

Linus Lundqvist remains the best rookie in the championship, in 17th on 73 points, but Lundqvist is only three points ahead of the next best rookie, his Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Kyffin Simpson. Marcus Ericsson fell from 16th to 19th in the championship after failing to complete a lap at Indianapolis. Ericsson is on 68 points while Agustín Canapino rounds out the top twenty on 56 markers. 

Christian Rasmussen and Pietro Fittipaldi are tied on 50 points with the tiebreaker going to Rasmussen thanks to Rasmussen's 12th at Indianapolis beating Fittipaldi's best finish this season of 13th at St. Petersburg. 

Jack Harvey did not run the Indianapolis 500 but he is 23rd in points with 47 points, one point more than Tom Blomqvist and Sting Ray Robb, two drivers that have contested every race this season. Callum Ilott's pair of 11th-place finishes between St. Petersburg and the "500" driving the #6 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet has him on 39 points, one more than Théo Pourchaire, who will take over the #6 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet for the remainder of the season starting in Detroit. 

With 12 races remaining, 648 points remain on the table. 

Can Josef Newgarden Win?
Considering we have just seen the first driver to successfully win consecutive Indianapolis 500s since 2002, Newgarden might be considering himself the man to end the 23-year slump of the Indianapolis 500 winner not backing up his Memorial Day weekend success with a victory in the following race. 

It has not happened since 2000 when Juan Pablo Montoya did it across two series. Montoya won the Indianapolis 500 as a one-off Indy Racing League entry for Chip Ganassi Racing. The following week Montoya won at Milwaukee as a full-time CART competitor. The last driver to win the Indianapolis 500 and the following race while competing in the same series was Arie Luyendyk in 1997, who won Indianapolis and then the inaugural Texas race. 

Since that week in 2000, no driver has been able to win consecutive races starting with the Indianapolis 500, regardless if it was over two series, just in the IRL or after re-unification. 

The last 23 Indianapolis 500 winners have an average finish of 8.6521 in the race following Indianapolis. Last year, Newgarden's tenth-place finish in Detroit made him the 15th of the last 23 winners to have a top ten finish in the subsequent race. It was the eighth time in the last nine years that the Indianapolis 500 winner was in the top ten of the following race. The lone exception in that run was Hélio Castroneves in 2021, who did not run the following race as he was a part-time driver.

Since 2013, the only Indianapolis 500 winner to finish in the top five in the following race was Takuma Sato in 2020 when Sato was runner-up at Gateway. Since 2001, there have been three other occasions where the Indianapolis winner was runner-up in the following race. It happened in consecutive seasons in 2007 and 2008 with Dario Franchitti and Scott Dixon, both occurring at Milwaukee. Franchitti did it again in 2012, this time finishing second at Belle Isle. 

Newgarden led two laps last year at Detroit and it was only the seventh time in the last 23 years the Indianapolis 500 winner led a lap in the following race. It was also the fifth time the Indianapolis 500 winner led fewer than 15 laps in that race. The only time the "500" winner led the most laps in the following race was Dixon leading 147 laps on his way to finish second at Milwaukee in 2008.

Three times has Newgarden won consecutive races in his career, including in each of the last two seasons. Entering this season, Newgarden had not had the best results on street courses in the past few years. He was first on the road at St. Petersburg in March before his disqualification, and he was credited for fourth at Long Beach. Newgarden has not finished on the podium in a street race since his 2022 Long Beach victory, ten street races ago. 

Newgarden's average finish on street courses since 2022 is 9.333. He has been classified in the top five in three of the last four street course races dating back to last season, though Newgarden has technically finished in the top five on the road in all four events.

How Did This Winner Do at Indianapolis?
We spend a lot of time looking at how the Indianapolis 500 winner does in the following race and view the lack of a consecutive victory as some kind of hangover or let down. However, how does the winner of the race after the "500" do in the "500" itself? 

Is it a case of a driver riding a wave of momentum from Speedway, Indiana and into the next event? Do drivers bounce back from bad days and put May disappointments behind them? Is it rather scattered and there no clear pattern?

Let's dive into it!

The average finishing position for the winner after Indianapolis in the Indianapolis 500 is 9.772. Thirteen of the 23 winners had finished in the top ten at Indianapolis in the race prior. Only six of those drivers were top five finishes. Three of those drivers were runner-up finishers. 

Only once in the last 23 years has the winner following Indianapolis finished outside the top twenty in the "500." That was Ryan Briscoe in 2008, who won at Milwaukee a week after he was 23rd at Indianapolis. This is unfavorable news for the likes of Kyffin Simpson, Agustín Canapino, Will Power, Felix Rosenqvist, Linus Lundqvist, Marcus Armstrong, Pietro Fittipaldi and Marcus Ericsson.

Since 2001, four times has the ninth-place finish at Indianapolis gone on to win the next race, the most frequent position to follow up Indianapolis with a victory. This should be pleasing news for Rinus VeeKay.

Only three times has the driver who has led the most laps in the Indianapolis 500 gone on to win the following race. Tony Kanaan led the most laps at Indianapolis in 2007 but the timing of a rainstorm prevented him from finishing better than 12th. Kanaan followed it up with a victory at Milwaukee. Scott Dixon led the most laps at Indianapolis in 2009 with 73 laps led and in 2020 with 111 laps led, however Dixon finished sixth and second respectively in those races. He followed it up with victories at Milwaukee and Gateway respectively.

In nine of the last 23 years, the winner following the Indianapolis 500 did not led a lap at Indianapolis. Four other drivers led fewer than ten laps at Indianapolis. 

In the last 23 years, on one occasion did the winner after Indianapolis not run the Indianapolis 500. That was Mike Conway in 2013, who did not participate at Indianapolis, but took over the #18 Dale Coyne Racing Honda at Belle Isle and then proceeded to win the first race of that doubleheader weekend. 

This is good news for both Dale Coyne Racing drivers this weekend. Jack Harvey will be back in the #18 Honda after Nolan Siegel failed to qualify in this car for the 108th Indianapolis 500. Dale Coyne Racing will welcome back Tristan Vautier in the #51 Honda for Detroit. Vautier last ran an IndyCar race at Texas in 2017, driving in place of an injured Sébastien Bourdais at Dale Coyne Racing.

Scott Dixon has won the race after the Indianapolis 500 in five of the last 23 years. The only other drivers with multiple victories in the race after Indianapolis in this timespan are Tony Kanaan and Will Power, two drivers that have won this race twice. Each time Power won the race after Indianapolis he won the championship. In eight of the 23 seasons has the winner of the race after Indianapolis gone on to win the championship, including in five of the last six seasons. 

The Manufacturers' Battle
Through five races, it is as evenly split as it can be in terms of victories. Chevrolet holds a three to two edge over Honda with 12 races remaining in the season. However, these races have all been rather one-sided. 

Though Patricio O'Ward is credited with the victory, Josef Newgarden led 92 of 100 laps at St. Petersburg. Chevrolet had taken the first four spots on the road prior to the disqualification of two Penske drivers. Either way, it was still a 1-2 for the American manufacturer with Will Power elevating to second after Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin were removed from the podium. 

However, at Long Beach, Honda took charge, sweeping the podium with Scott Dixon leading the way. Honda drivers combined to lead 51 of 85 laps, and Honda took seven of the top ten starting positions in the race. 

Bouncing down to Barber Motorsports Park, Chevrolet again controlled proceedings. With 73 of 90 laps led, Chevrolet went 1-2 again with Scott McLaughlin ahead of Will Power and that is how those two started the race as well. 

At the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Honda took four of the top five spots with Álex Palou winning the race with 39 laps led from pole position. Honda drivers combined for 82 of 85 laps led. Honda drivers led the opening 41 laps. 

Chevrolet was on top at the Indianapolis 500. Chevrolet drivers led 155 of 200 laps. Of the seven drivers that led at least ten laps, six drove Chevrolets. The only Honda driver to lead more than five laps was Scott Dixon with 12. It was Chevrolet's third 1-2 finish of the season with Josef Newgarden ahead of Patricio O'Ward. Chevrolet took seven of the top ten finishers and 13 of the top twenty. 

The 2024 season has seen the manufacturers alternate victories. If the pattern holds in Detroit, Honda should take the victory, and it would be its second consecutive victory on Chevrolet's doorstep. 

Last year, Honda won thanks to Álex Palou leading 74 of 100 laps from pole position. Honda drivers combined to lead another eight laps giving the Japanese manufacturer 82 laps led. Honda and Chevrolet did split the top ten. Honda has won eight of the last nine street courses dating back to Toronto in 2022.

In the manufacturers' championship, Chevrolet has the lead with 408 points to Honda's 386 points. In the drivers' championship, Honda has the top two spots and three of the top five, but the manufacturers are evenly represented in the top ten, each with five drivers apiece. Four different teams are represented in the top eight drivers. 

Through five races there have been five different winners from three different teams, but only one Honda team has won a race. That would be Chip Ganassi Racing. This is the second consecutive season to see five different winners through five races, and the third time in four seasons. The 2021 season opened with seven different winners. Only five teams have put a car on the podium this season through 15 possible opportunities, three Honda teams and two Chevrolet.

IMSA
This is the second of two street course weekends that IndyCar and IMSA shares. Like Long Beach in April, the GTP class will lead the way in IMSA. Unlike Long Beach in April, the GTD Pro class will compete in Detroit and not the GTD class.

The #7 Porsche of Dane Cameron and Felipe Nasr has finished on the podium in every race this season and the 24 Hours of Daytona winners lead the GTP championship with 1,357 points. Fifty points back is the #31 Whelen Engineering Cadillac of Jack Aitken and Pipo Derani. The #31 Cadillac has finished second in three of four races this season.

The #01 Cadillac of Sébastien Bourdais and Renger van der Zande won at Long Beach and is third in the championship, 88 points off the top. There have been four different winners through the first four races. The #40 Wayne Taylor Racing with Andretti Acura of Jordan Taylor and Louis Delétraz won at Sebring and takes fourth in the championship with 1,244 points, 13 points ahead of Laguna Seca winners Mathieu Jaminet and Nick Tandy in the #6 Porsche.

BMW has yet to finish on the podium this season. The #25 BMW of Connor De Phillippi and Nick Yelloly has 1,088 points, 35 points more than the #24 BMW of Philipp Eng and Jesse Krohn. It has been a rough season for the #10 WTRAndretti Acura of Ricky Taylor and Felipe Albuquerque. With a best finish of fifth, the #10 Acura is a point behind the #24 BMW. 

Gianmaria Bruni has Bent Viscaal remaining as his co-driver in the #5 Proton Competition Porsche for a second consecutive round. Bruni has scored 1,026 points this season, 13 more than Richard Westbrook and Tijmen van der Helm in the #85 JDC-Miller Motorsports Porsche. 

After a victory at Laguna Seca, Laurin Heinrch and Sea Priaulx lead the GTD Pro championship with 981 points in the #77 AO Racing Porsche. Ben Barnicoat and Jack Hawksworth trail by 56 points in the #14 VasserSullivan Lexus. Paul Miller Racing is 93 points off the championship lead with Bryan Sellers and Madison Snow in the #1 BMW, 21 points ahead of the #23 Heart of Racing Team Aston Martin of Mario Farnbacher and Ross Gunn. 

Corvette has one podium finish through three races with the #3 Corvette of Antonio García and Alexander Sims on 812 points, four points ahead of the #4 Corvette of Tommy Milner and Nicky Catsburg. Pfaff Motorsports is coming off its first podium finish of the season with Oliver Jarvis and Marvin Kirchhöfer finishing second in the #9 McLaren at Laguna Seca. Pfaff has 799 points this season. 

Multimatic's Ford Mustang program has yet to score a top five finish this season. The #64 Ford of Harry Tincknell and Mike Rockenfeller has 774 points while Joey Hand and Dirk Müller have scored 746 points in the #65 Ford. 

There are two one-off entries for Detroit. VasserSullivan is entering the #15 Lexus for Parker Thompson and Frankie Montecalvo. Conquest Racing will run the #34 Ferrari for Daniel Serra and Albert Costa.

IMSA will hold its 100-minute race at 3:10 p.m. ET on Saturday June 1.

Indy Lights
Detroit will be the fifth round of the Indy Lights season, and Detroit marks a milestone weekend for the series. This will be the 500th race in series history. 

Jacob Abel enters this historic weekend with a 25-point lead in the championship over Nolan Siegel. Abel has finished second, first, first and second over the first four races with three pole positions. Siegel opened the year with finishes of first, second and second, but he was fifth in the second race on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course. 

Louis Foster won the second race on the IMS road course and Foster is up to third in the championship on 142 points. Caio Collet sits in fourth on 109 points, one ahead of Myles Rowe. Michael d'Orlando's season will continue onward to Detroit. D'Orlando is sixth the championship on 104 points, eighth ahead of James Roe, Jr., and Reece Gold. 

Callum Hedge has 93 points, one more than Jonathan Browne. Salvador de Alba has 83 points, nine more than Christian Bogle, and Jamie Chardwick, who was third in the first IMS road course race, is 13th with 69 points.

Last year, Reece Gold and Nolan Siegel split the Detroit doubleheader. Abel was fourth and ninth. Foster started on pole position for each race but finished 19th and third. 

The Indy Lights race will be at 10:35 a.m. ET on Sunday June 2. The race is scheduled for 45 laps.

Fast Facts
This will be the tenth IndyCar race to take place on June 2 and the first since Scott Dixon won at Belle Isle in 2019. Dixon also won at Belle Isle on June 2, 2018. 

The winner of the sixth race of the season has not gone onto win the championship since Simon Pagenaud in 2019.

In four of the last five years IndyCar has held races in Detroit, one of the Detroit race winners has gone onto win the championship that season. 

There have been seven different winners in the last seven races held in Detroit, Michigan. 

Chip Ganassi Racing has won three of the last five races held in Detroit, Michigan, and four of the last eight. 

Last year, Álex Palou won the Detroit race from pole position. The pole-sitter won three of five street course races last year, and the pole-sitter has finished first on the road in four of the last six street course races.

The average starting position for the last seven street course winners is 3.7142 with a median of third. 

Five of the last seven street course winners started in the top five. On the other two occasions, the winner started eighth each time. 

It has been 26 races since the second-place starting position has produced a winner. The most recent winner to start second was Alexander Rossi in the July 2022 IMS road course race.

It has been 78 races since the sixth-place starting position has produced a winner. The most recent winner to start sixth was Scott Dixon at Belle Isle in 2019. This year's Detroit race falls on the five-year anniversary of that race.

The most recent 1-2-3 finish on a street course was Andretti Green Racing's 1-2-3-4 finish at St. Petersburg in 2005.

Hélio Castroneves will drive the #66 Meyer Shank Racing Honda entry this weekend in place of Tom Blomqvist. Castroneves is second all-the in IndyCar starts with 392. He is 15 starts behind tying Mario Andretti's record of 407.

With his start in the Indianapolis 500, Scott Dixon moved into sole possession of third all-time in IndyCar starts with 390, breaking a tie with Tony Kanaan.

Five different drivers have set fastest lap in each race this season. 

There were ten lead changes in last year's Detroit race. It was one of two road/street course races last year to have at least ten lead changes.

The most recent street course race without a lead change was the 2012 Belle Isle race where Scott Dixon led all 60 laps. That race was shortened from 90 laps due to track conditions when the surface was coming apart and the damage caused James Hinchcliffe to have an accident. 

Last year's Detroit race had seven caution periods for 32 laps.

Predictions
Josef Newgarden continues his heater and wins with at least 70 laps led but was a stiff challenge from Álex Palou, who will record his eighth consecutive top five finish dating back to last season. Andretti Global will have a podium finisher. At least three drivers that finished outside the top twenty in the Indianapolis 500 will finish in the top ten in Detroit. There will be fewer caution laps and fewer caution periods than last year's race. Romain Grosjean will avoid contact with the barriers. Graham Rahal will not hit a barrier under caution. We will have at least 15 consecutive green flag laps from the start of the race. Patricio O'Ward will not have a penalty that leads to him making a mistake on track. Sleeper: Marcus Armstrong.