Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...
The FIA World Endurance Championship did he unprecedented and put time back on the clock, upsetting Ferrari and leading to an upset results of sorts. Porsche had itself a weekend all around the globe. MotoGP produced a race worthy of the size of the crowd at Le Mans. A trio of championships were claimed in Utah. Kyle Busch did something he had never done before. Álex Palou is back on top of the IndyCar championship, which could be a devastating thing for the competition, but attention turns to Indianapolis 500 qualifying where the fastest 33 cars will fill out the grid for the 108th edition of the race. But something has been on my mind regarding that.
The Myth of the Fastest 33
This time a week from now, we will know which 33 drivers will be in the Indianapolis 500 and who is the one unlucky driver to miss this year's race. As is tradition, the fastest 33 drivers from the qualifying weekend will make the race. No one is locked in. No one has an exemption. The past cannot save you. If you want to make the race, you must do it on a four-lap qualifying attempt. The fastest 33 will fill the field, same as it ever was.
Except... has that always been the case?
No, I am not talking about 1979 or 1997 where the 25/8 Rule messed things up. Is it really the fastest 33 every year?
Semantically, yes. It is the fastest 33 based on the rules that have been put in place. The fastest 33 today is much different from the fastest 33 from 40 years ago. Not just in speed but how it is decided.
In 2024, there are two qualifying days. You will see drivers make an unlimited number of attempts on Saturdays. Times do not have to be withdrawn. Drivers are effectively locked in a position and can run as much as their heart desires to try and improve with no risk of falling down the order, or potentially out of the race. And these drivers can do it all in the same car. Once a four-lap run is complete that driver can drive right back to the front of the line and do it again.
This isn't the case of once a car has completed a qualifying attempt it is no longer allowed on track and if a driver is bumped, he or she must find a different car to try and qualify into the race. An entry doesn't have a three-attempt limit, and teams would decide to wave off a run on a gut-feeling it wouldn't be quick enough or it could be better. What it takes to make the fastest 33 is very different, and an argument can be made we have a more accurate fastest 33 than at any point previous in Indianapolis 500 history.
There was much more human error in who made the fastest 33 in the past.
Case in point, everyone's favorite Indianapolis 500 qualifying year, 1995.
The year Team Penske missed the race, one year after it stomped the competition, everyone believes Team Penske didn't have what it took to make the fastest 33... but it probably did and at least Emerson Fittipaldi should have been in the race.
On the Saturday of the second qualifying weekend, Fittipaldi was on a qualifying run that was trending to be a four-lap average in the mid-225 mph range. The third lap had been completed at 226.097 mph, but before Fittipaldi could complete the fourth lap and made the run official, Roger Penske waved off the attempt. We know how the rest of history goes.
On bump day, Fittipaldi completed a four-lap run at 224.907 mph. At 5:30 p.m., he was the 33rd fastest car. In the final ten minutes of qualifying, Stefan Johansson bumped Fittipaldi and Penske out of the race. However, we know Fittipaldi was faster than that. If the team doesn't doubt its speed on Saturday, Fittipaldi is in the race. A 225.5 mph four-lap average would have been quicker than four cars that made the race. Even a 225.4 mph run would have put Fittipaldi in the field. Fittipaldi didn't miss the race because he wasn't fast enough. He missed the race because the team didn't think it would be fast enough and gave up what would have been an acceptable run.
Again, is it really the fastest 33 or the fastest 33 completed qualifying runs? That is a big difference. If attempts weren't allowed to be waved off, the grid would have looked different in many cases over the first 100-plus years of this race. How many drivers were on qualifying runs good enough but were not completed because doubt crept into the mind of driver, team owner or chief engineer?
Take a race where the fastest 33 cars did not compete: 2010.
We know the fastest 33 cars or at least the fastest 33 completed qualifying runs did not make the race. If that was the case, Sebastián Saavedra would have never been in the race. Saavedra made the race from a hospital bed after an accident during a practice run on bump day. At the time of the accident, Saavedra's best run was 223.634 mph, the 34th fastest. It actually was knocked down to 35th best when Takuma Sato completed his qualifying run with 20 minutes remaining.
Jay Howard was quicker, but Howard had to withdraw his time as he was in 34th to make another qualifying attempt. Howard could not get into the top 33, and his new qualifying attempt was slower than Saavedra. Paul Tracy was 33rd, but Tracy withdrew his time with ten minutes left in hopes of getting off the bubble. Tracy had a bobble and aborted that qualifying run.
Saavedra ended up making the race. Was he really one of the fastest 33? He was one of the fastest 33 completed qualifying runs that was not withdrawn. We saw Paul Tracy run faster. We saw Jay Howard run faster. Those cars were faster than Saavedra. Tracy and Howard weren't qualifying new cars. Cars could be re-qualified in 2010. This wasn't a case of backup cars that weren't good enough. Those cars had been quicker and then the conditions changed and they weren't when attempting again. The procedure, mixed with hubris in the case of Tracy and KV Racing, meant the times were taken off the board.
If you are the purest of purest and truly believe it should be the fastest 33 then the entire practice of withdrawing times should not be permissible. If you believe it must be the fastest 33 then once a qualifying run is completed and it is in the fastest 33, it should stand no matter what. A human decision to withdraw it should not be allowed. It is one of the fastest 33 qualifying runs. We saw it happened. It should be in the race until it is no longer one of the fastest 33.
That wasn't the case in 2010. Yet, we continue to perpetuate the myth that we see the fastest 33.
We can go even go more recent than that. Remember 2019?
Everyone loves 2019. There is a fair number of people who get too much of a kick out of 2019 when Fernando Alonso and McLaren missed the race. It was a great story. The mighty McLaren outfit came as a one-off from its Formula One program with a two-time World Drivers' Champion, and yet it could not beat Juncos Racing and its backup car with Kyle Kaiser.
Except, Alonso did run one of the fastest 33 qualifying runs.
Alonso missed the race despite running a 227.353 mph four-lap average in the last row qualifying session on Sunday. That wasn't one of the top three times in the session but it was quicker than Zach Veach, Felix Rosenqvist and Pippa Mann, all three of which were locked in because they were one of the fastest 30 drivers from Saturday qualifying.
It wasn't really the fastest 33. It was the fastest 33 completed qualifying runs that weren't withdrawn and fit the parameters set by the series.
Again, things change. Two qualifying weekends are a thing of the past. Everyone qualifies within two days and everyone qualifies on the first day. With cars allowed to make an unlimited number of attempts, everyone running the same chassis, there only being two choices of engine and qualifying being formatted to be more of a spectacle boiling down to one moment than a procedure for determine who makes a race, what it means to be the fastest 33 changed.
In 2019, everyone qualified on that opening Saturday. All 36 entries. Alonso wasn't in the top 30 to be locked in the race. He was 31st. Based on the new way of doing things, he wasn't good enough to make the race on Saturday. If you cannot be in the top 30 on Saturday then you must be in the top three of this one session on Sunday. Alonso couldn't do that either.
We are also more aware of how conditions play a role in a qualifying run. It was a case of Alonso being faster than Veach, Rosenqvist and Mann, but the conditions during that Sunday afternoon session was different from the day before. It wasn't set up for anyone being bumped from the field and having a chance to re-qualify. Veach, Rosenqvist and Mann might have run faster if they were in that same session on Sunday, but they didn't need to be because they had gotten the job done on Saturday and facing the same conditions made the top 30, the new standard set to lock in a spot to the Indianapolis 500.
We can even go back to 2021 to show how the current procedure allows the fastest 33 to not be the fastest 33. Dalton Kellett found a loop hole to withdraw his time, run slower and still make the top 30 on Saturday. In the current state, any time bumped out of the top 30 on Saturday no longer exists. Those times cannot move into the top 30 if a car withdraws its time.
Kellett was 30th, withdrew his speed of 229.228 mph to get on track as the final Saturday qualifier, preventing anyone on the outside from making a run that could bump him. Kellett ran at 228.323 mph, slower than the best time set by Will Power, Sage Karam and Charlie Kimball, but Kellett kept 30th because the other times were no longer on the board. When Kellett withdrew his time, 30th was an open spot. He effectively locked out 30th for himself and could have run as slow as he wished. Those other three had to run the last row qualifying session the next day. Kimball ended up missing the race.
So it is the fastest 33... depending on what you consider the fastest 33. If you believe it should be the fastest 33 completed qualifying runs no matter what, well I hate to tell you but that hasn't been the case in quite some time. Even if that was the case, it didn't always truly produce the fastest 33 qualifying runs because outside factors prevented teams from completing a qualifying run. Some teams beat themselves or thought they knew better. An argument could be made that most years didn't really have the fastest 33, but we accepted the 33 we got as the fastest.
It is ok for it to be a myth. Myth can inspire you. Without the myth, we don't have the Alonso/Kaiser moment of 2019. If cars could be re-qualified in 1995 or every qualifying run had to be fully completed, Penske is likely in the race. We don't have the harsh remainder that no one is guaranteed a spot in this race (for now).
Too often the Indianapolis 500 is treated like a religious creed, something that has come from on high and is impeccable. It isn't. It never has been. It is a creation from flawed individuals that is maintain by equally as flawed individuals in the 21st century. Don't get upset when it isn't perfect. It never has been. That doesn't mean it isn't special or cannot be loved. Just remember what it is and don't take it any more serious than that.
Champions From The Weekend
Jett Lawrence clinched the Supercross championship with a seventh-place finish at Salt Lake City.
Tom Vialle clinched the 250 East Supercross championship with an eighth-place finish at Salt Lake City.
R.J. Hampshire clinched the 250 West Supercross championship with a second-place finish at Salt Lake City.
Winners From The Weekend
You know about Álex Palou, but did you know...
Jorge Martín won MotoGP's French Grand Prix, his second victory of the season, and Martín won the sprint race. Sergio García won the Moto2 race, his second victory of the season. David Alonso won the Moto3 race, his third victory of the season. Nicklas Spinelli swept the MotoE races.
Brad Keselowski won the NASCAR race from Darlington, ending a 110-race winless streak. Justin Allgaier won the Grand National Series race. Ross Chastain won the Truck race.
Jacob Abel and Louis Foster split the Indy Lights races from the IMS road course. Nikita Johnson (race one and two) and Simon Sikes (race three) split the USF Pro 2000 races. Max Taylor and Max Garcia split the U.S. F2000 races.
The #12 Hertz Team Jota Porsche of Callum Ilott and Will Stevens won the 6 Hours of Spa-Francorchamps. The #91 Manthey EMA Porsche of Richard Lietz, Morris Schuring and Yasser Shahin won in the LMGT3 class.
The #6 Porsche Penske Motorsport of Nick Tandy and Mathieu Jaminet won the IMSA race from Laguna Seca. The #77 AO Racing Porsche of Laurin Heinrih and Sebastian Priaulx won in GTD Pro. The #57 Winward Racing Mercedes-AMG of Philip Ellis and Russell Ward won in GTD, its third victory in four races.
Nick Cassidy and António Félix da Costa split the Berlin ePrix.
Sébastien Ogier won Rally de Portugal, his second victory of the season, and his 60th career victory.
Chase Sexton won the Supercross race from Salt Lake City. Haiden Deegan won the 250 East/West Showdown.
Coming Up This Weekend
Indianapolis 500 qualifying.
Formula One will be at Imola.
NASCAR's All-Star Race from North Wilkesboro.
A Théo Pourchaire-less Super Formula competes at Autopolis.
Supercars are out in Perth.
GT World Challenge America runs in Austin.
GT World Challenge Europe Sprint Cup is at Misano.
