Christmas is behind us, and it brings us to our Boxing Day tradition of making Formula One predictions for the upcoming season. We are coming off a historic, record-breaking season from Max Verstappen and Red Bull, but it was tight for second through fourth in the constructors' championship, and some drivers were basically bound together in the drivers' championship at the very end.
It will be a new season in 2024, but after 2022 and 2023, it is difficult to think we will see much different. It might not be identical, but at the moment there is no reason to expect a big flip in running order. That doesn't mean we will not see different things nor things that will please us in the new season.
1. The second Red Bull entry leads at least 200 laps
Max Verstappen led 1,003 laps in 2023. Sergio Pérez led 146 laps in 2023.
Pérez did win the second most races in 2023, two. It was a little underwhelming compared to the success of his Red Bull teammate. After what we saw, it is hard to believe Pérez could take anything away from Verstappen's success in 2024. However, it is had to see how if Red Bull remains the best team that the second car does not do a little better if it means Verstappen does a little worse. Take away two victories and 100 laps from Verstappen and it is still a historically, successful season.
But, who knows? It might not necessarily be Pérez in that second Red Bull car, and we should take that into consideration. Red Bull has a history of changing drivers midseason. It just did it in 2023 with AlphaTauri.
We are leaving the door open for that. It is hard to see Verstappen being that dominant again. If Red Bull is great, the second car will do better in 2024 than it did in 2023. Leading 200 laps is not asking much in that scenario.
2. There will be midseason driver changes at multiple teams
All 20 drivers that started the 2023 season finale at Abu Dhabi is slated to be on the grid for the 2024 season opener at Bahrain.
There were two driver changes all of 2023. Daniel Ricciardo replaced Nyck de Vries at Hungarian Grand Prix. Liam Lawson deputized for Ricciardo for five races after Ricciardo suffered a wrist injury in practice for the Dutch Grand Prix.
Somebody is going to get tired of somebody in 2024.
We have covered that there is the possibility Red Bull could shake its driver lineup midseason. It should be mentioned Williams has a driver that wasn't necessarily performing to a desired level in 2023. A unfruitful stretch to start 2024 could lead to Logan Sargeant being shuffled out at Williams.
There is always the possibility of the unforeseen. A relationship blowing up midseason, money drying up, a driver deciding to leave early, another Ricciardo wrist injury. Things are too calm in Formula One. There will be a spicy situation at some point next season.
3. On at least one occasions will there be three consecutive different winners
This is basically hoping Red Bull will lose multiple races, but this can also be a fulfilled prediction with Red Bull success.
All we need is Max Verstappen to win a race, Sergio Pérez to win a race and then a non-Red Bull driver to win a race. This could have happened in 2023 if Pérez had just won the Italian Grand Prix or Qatar Grand Prix.
We did not see three consecutive different winners in 2023. I think we are all hopeful it happens in 2024. We are hoping for an increase in competitiveness. We would like to see Ferrari being able to take it to Red Bull more. We would like to see Mercedes get back to their winning ways, and after going winless in 2023, you have to think Mercedes is keen on bouncing back from its worst season in over a decade. McLaren looked racy.
We would love to see three different winners in three consecutive races from three different manufacturers. That would be great. We can all dream.
4. Each Williams car will score at least four points
Alexander Albon had another outstanding season carrying Williams. Albon scored 27 points in 2023. He got Williams up to seventh, its best season since 2017.
The problem is Albon scored 96.428% of Williams' points. Williams was 92 points behind Alpine for sixth in the constructors' championship, not that simply cloning Albon would have made much of a difference, but another driver adding points would at least have created some breathing room between Williams and AlphaTauri in eighth, which was only three points behind Williams.
This prediction is either hoping Logan Sargeant makes the bare minimum improvement and can score four points in 2024 instead of one, or Sargeant is replaced and another driver is able to extract something from Williams.
I am not saying Williams is going to score 50 or 60 points in 2024. There is a chance we could see Williams only score 12 points, but Albon and the other driver, whether it be Sargeant or another competition, each score six points. Keep that in mind.
5. Fernando Alonso finishes at least five positions better than Lance Stroll in fewer than nine grand prix
Alonso whooped Stroll in 2023. There was a 132-point gap between Alonso and Stroll in the championship. Alonso was on the podium eight times. Stroll didn't finish on the podium once. Aston Martin ended up finishing 22 points behind McLaren for fourth in the constructors' championship. A stronger second driver for Aston Martin likely would have scored enough points to hold off McLaren.
In 2023, Alonso finished at least five positions better than Stroll in ten races. In 2024, I think that total will go down. I don't think Alonso will have the same hot start in 2024 and score six podium finishes in the first eight events.
Aston Martin will dip a little and bring Alonso closer to Stroll. Alonso will still be the top driver in the team and score a majority of Aston Martin's points, but the gap will not be as wide.
6. McLaren will score more than 29 points in at least six grand prix
Speaking of McLaren, it started the season with 29 points in the first nine races of the 2023 season. McLaren ended up scoring 273 points in the final 11 races, lifting McLaren to fourth in the constructors' championship.
McLaren ended on a hot streak. It had seven runner-up finishes in the final 11 races. Twice it had multiple podium finishes. The only other team to have multiple podium finishes in 2023 was Red Bull.
The Woking outfit has gotten off to some slow starts the last few seasons, but I think with the form McLaren ended on in 2023, it will not start slow in 2024. McLaren will be in the mix more from the start, and that means more points being scored.
McLaren scored 29 points or more in three grand prix last year. I think McLaren will at least double that total in 2024. Note: All these points must be scored on Sunday. Sprint races will not count.
7. The gap between sixth and seventh in the constructors' championship will be less than 40 points
There was a country-mile between sixth and seventh in the constructors' championship in 2023. As stated above, Alpine was 92 points ahead of Williams went the season ended. Alpine was good, but it wasn't that good.
How does 92 points compared to the gaps between sixth and seventh in previous seasons?
2022: 0 Points (Alfa Romeo and Aston Martin tied on 55 points)
2021: 65 Points (AlphaTauri's 142 to Aston Martin's 77)
2020: 24 Points (Ferrari's 131 to AlphaTauri's 107)
2019: 12 Points (Toro Rosso's 85 to Racing Points 73)
2018: 10 Points (McLaren's 62 to Force India's 52, note this was the year Force India had 59 points voided after entering administration)
2017: 4 Points (Renault's 57 to Toro Rosso's 53)
2016: 13 Points (McLaren's 76 to Toro Rosso's 63)
2015: 11 Points (Lotus' 78 to Toro Rosso's 67)
2014: 125 Points (Force India's 155 to Toro Rosso's 30)
2013: 20 Points (Force India's 77 to Sauber's 57)
2012: 17 Points (Sauber's 126 to Force India's 109)
2011: 25 Points (Force India's 69 to Sauber's 44)
2010: 1 Point (Williams' 69 to Force India's 68)
In the 14 seasons since the adoption of the current points system, the average difference between sixth and seventh in the constructors' championship has been 29.928 points. The median has been 15 points. The 2023 season was only the third time the game was greater than 25 points. I am not sure this will necessarily fall to the high-teens or low-to-mid 20s, but that gap will at less than half of what it was in 2023.
8. Charles Leclerc will finish eighth in at least two races
It has been a tough few seasons for Leclerc. There were the numerous races that got away from him in 2022. Last year, he didn't win a race while Carlos Sainz, Jr. did. Leclerc did finish ahead of Sainz, Jr. in the championship by six points as that is all that covered fourth to seventh in the drivers' championship.
In the last two seasons, Leclerc has won three grand prix, 14 pole positions and finished on the podium 17 times. He has finished second and fifth in the championship the last two years.
Do you want to know what Leclerc hasn't done in the last two seasons?
He has not finished in eighth position. He was seventh in three races in 2023, and ninth at Silverstone. In 2022, every time Leclerc took the checkered fag on the track, he was sixth or better.
The last time he has finished eighth was the 2021 Qatar Grand Prix. He has finished eighth in only four races in his 123 starts.
2020 Tuscan Grand Prix from Mugello
2021 Austrian Grand Prix
2021 Belgian Grand Prix (Yes, that Belgian Grand Prix)
2021 Qatar Grand Prix.
I think Leclerc increases his eighth-place finish total by at least 50% in 2024.
9. Max Verstappen will be in sole possession of fourth all-time in podium finishes by the conclusion of the British Grand Prix
Versatappen has 98 career podium finishes. He is two away from becoming the seventh driver to hit the century mark in podium finishes.
Who is fourth all-time?
It is currently a tied between Alain Prost and Fernando Alonso on 106 podium finishes. There is wrinkle to this prediction, as fourth all-time could move during the season. For Verstappen to be ahead of Alonso by the end of the season, he would need to finish on the podium at least nine more times than the Spaniard in 2024.
For Verstappen to be fourth all-time on his own by the end of the British Grand Prix, he would need at least nine podium finishes in the first 12 races, the first half of the season. However, there are moving goal posts, because if Alonso has one podium finish at the end of the British Grand Prix, that means Verstappen would need at least ten podium finishes from the first 12 races to be in sole possession of fourth all-time.
If Alonso has three podium finishes in the first 12 races then for this prediction to be correct Verstappen must finish on the podium in each of the first 12 races. If Alonso gets four podium finishes in the first 12 races then that means there is no way for this prediction can be correct because that means at best Verstappen can be tied for fourth after the Silverstone race.
The prediction goes two ways. It is saying Verstappen will keep up his good form, be on the podium in at least 75% of the races in the first half of the season, and Alonso will be on the podium less early in the season compared to 2023. Nothing like a multiple faceted prediction.
10. Somebody knocks Alain Prost out of the top ten for oldest pole-sitter in Formula One history
Keeping Alonso in the loop for a moment, he is one of only two scheduled drivers who can fulfill this prediction.
Alonso will be 42 years, seven months and two days old when the 2024 season opener takes place at Bahrain. A pole position that weekend and Alonso would become the fourth oldest driver to win a pole position in Formula One history. If Alonso wins a pole position at any point in 2024, he would take over as fourth oldest pole-sitter.
If Alonso were to do that, he would bump Prost out of the top ten as the oldest pole-sitters in Formula One history. Prost's final pole position came when he was 38 years and eight months old at the 1993 Japanese Grand Prix, the penultimate race of Prost's career. That pole position made Prost the eighth oldest pole-sitter at the time. Only Nigel Mansell and Kimi Räikkönen have surpassed him.
Who is the other driver who could knock Prost out of the top ten?
That would be Lewis Hamilton. Hamilton will be 39 years, one month and 24 days old at the season opener. A pole position that weekend will put Hamilton as the eighth oldest pole-sitter. He could be as high as the sixth-oldest before this season is over.
Basically, I am predicting either Fernando Alonso or Lewis Hamilton win a pole position in 2024. They just need one lap pace. They don't need to beat Red Bull over an entire grand prix.
11. Yuki Tsunoda will have fewer 11th-place finishes than in 2023
There was a running gag during the 2023 season about the number of 11th-place finishes Tsunoda had. However, it isn't as funny when you look at the facts.
Tsunoda was classified in 11th position in only three races. Those just happened to be three of the first five races. He also finished 11th on the road a fourth time during that span but was classified in tenth at the Australian Grand Prix after gaining a position due to Carlos Sainz, Jr. being assessed a penalty for causing a collision.
Get this, Tsunoda didn't even have the sole lead for most 11th-place finishes in 2023. Pierre Gasly also had three 11th-place finishes. But everyone ran with this cheap joke for most of the season.
Guess what? Tsunoda will have fewer 11th-place finishes in 2024. It will become a forgotten gag, which is for the mercy of all of us.
12. Haas will exceed 12 points before Formula One's second visit to the United States
Haas was dead-last in the constructors' championship in 2023. It had 12 points, which is the most for a last-place finisher in the constructors' championship, but it is a hollow record. Haas ended up four points behind Alfa Romeo for ninth, and Haas fell from 37 points in eighth the year before. It was the fourth time in the last five seasons Haas has finished either ninth or tenth in the constructors' championship.
However, as an optimist, I think it will be better for Haas in 2024, and it will have at least 13 points by the time the 2024 Formula One season reaches Austin. That means Haas will 13 points in the first 18 races. A foolish prediction, I know.
Is there any reason why we should believe in such an increase for Haas? It is keeping Kevin Magnussen around reluctantly for the third year in his second Formula One stint. The team is keeping Nico Hülkenberg for no other apparent reason but lack of ambition. The Haas doesn’t produce great cars. If it wasn't for a mess of a late restart in Australia, Hülkenberg would have scored only three points in 2023, all from the Austria sprint race.
Haas did have 12 points entering Austin last year. Its final point came when Magnussen was tenth in the Singapore Grand Prix. In six of its first eight seasons, Haas has had at least 12 points entering Austin. I have no other great reason to make this prediction other than it isn't boring and it keeps the sequential number-related predictions going through the very end. It is still lofty to think Haas will have 13 points by the time Formula One enters the United States Grand Prix weekend.
Formula One done. NASCAR, already done. Three more predictions remain, and we will have some sports car predictions tomorrow.
