Where Are We Now?
Through 11 of 21 races, Lewis Hamilton leads the championship with 225 points after winning seven races, nine podium finishes and scoring in all 11 races. Second in the championship, 46 points behind Hamilton is his Mercedes teammate Valtteri Bottas, who won two of the first four races and has nine podium finishes. The only other driver to win a race this season is third in the championship and that is Max Verstappen of Red Bull Racing, who has won two of the last three races but Verstappen has only four podium finishes this season despite finishing in the top five of all 11 races this season.
Is It Lewis Hamilton's to Lose?
Yes.
Hamilton has won seven races already. He has averaged 10.2 victories a season since 2014. He has a 46-point championship lead, nearly two races clear of the next driver. In the previous five seasons with ten races to go, Hamilton was four points behind Nico Rosberg in 2014, 17 points ahead of Rosberg in 2015, six points ahead of Rosberg in 2016, one point behind Sebastian Vettel in 2017 and 17 points ahead of Vettel last year.
Hamilton has his largest lead with ten races to go in the turbo-hybrid-era. He is on pace for his most victories in a season, very well could match or break Michael Schumacher and Vettel's record of most victories in a season at 13 and if he does break that record, he could break Alberto Ascari's record for highest winning percentage in a Formula One season.
Hamilton is chasing a lot more than the title this season.
Speaking of Records, How is Hamilton Looking in Terms of All-Time Victories?
The good news for Michael Schumacher is he will remain the driver with the most grand prix victories into 2020 as there are only ten races left and Hamilton sits on 80 grand prix victories, 11 behind Schumacher's record of 91 victories.
Since 2014, Hamilton has won at least five of the final ten races each year with his most victories in the final ten races being seven, which occurred last year. I think five victories seem to be the minimum. He is coming off a disaster in the German Grand Prix and the one thing we have seen is when Mercedes has a horrendous weekend it responds in the next race. This team does not stay down long.
If Hamilton wins five more races he will be six victories away entering 2020 and he improve on his average of 10.2 victories a season since 2014. At that point it will be just a matter of when he matches and breaks the record in a season where he will likely be trying to match Schumacher's record of seven World Drivers' Championships.
Outside of Hamilton, Who Are the Bright Spots?
Verstappen has taken on the role of number one driver with ease and we have seen the 21-year-old driver mature over the first 11 races of 2019.
There really has not been a bad situation for Verstappen this year but we haven't seen a meltdown, we haven't seen him unnecessarily curse out the crew and he has sealed the deal in both his victories this season.
In Austria, Verstappen found himself in a toe-to-toe battle with Charles Leclerc. Previous seasons may have been Verstappen overstep the boundary and do something foolish that would have either left him with a broken car, a reprimand or both. Instead, Verstappen found a way through on Leclerc and took a home victory for Red Bull.
In Germany, Verstappen found himself fortunate from the off-road excursions from the likes of Hamilton and Leclerc while his spin proved to be a much more innocent mistake in the varying conditions. With Hamilton out of the way, Bottas out of the way, Leclerc out of the way and Vettel fighting from behind, he cruised to his second victory of the season.
If we are praising Verstappen, we have to praise Honda, who has put together a reliable engine after struggling for majority of its tenure in the turbo-hybrid-era.
Charles Leclerc's move to Ferrari has not stunted the Monegasque driver's growth and the sophomore slump has not bitten the lad. Leclerc could have two grand prix victories to his name had it not been for a failing car in Bahrain and an aggressive Verstappen in Austria. Leclerc has not been intimidated in the Maranello outfit or in the shadow of four-time champion Sebastian Vettel.
We have to mention Valtteri Bottas because for a driver on the hot seat Bottas has been able to achieve great results. He is never going to beat Hamilton straight up on ability in majority of the races but he has two victories this season. He has been on the podium the same number of times as Hamilton. They both had a terrible day at Hockenheim and it is a cruel bit of fate that the two drivers both spin in turn one only for Hamilton to avoid hitting the barrier or beaching the car while Bottas clattered the barrier while contending for a podium spot. On top of that, Bottas' future will likely be decided before the summer break. The 2019 Hungarian Grand Prix might be the most important of the Finn's career.
How Should McLaren Feel?
Sour.
Honda has two victories this season and Red Bull has scored 147 more points than McLaren this season. Red Bull has scored more points through 11 races than McLaren scored in the previous four seasons combined.
The good news for McLaren is both Carlos Sainz, Jr. and Lando Norris have been able to get the car back into the top six on a regular basis with one car in the top six in six of the first 11 races. The team is still a distance off the podium though we see it has gotten back into a position to be in a position to capitalize on a rainy day. That is progress.
What is Going on at Ferrari?
Ferrari is a team more focused on beating itself than beating Mercedes.
The last year has been a complete unraveling of the wonderful start to the first half of 2018 where it appeared Ferrari was going to be a championship contender.
We touched upon Leclerc above but Sebastian Vettel leads the way in the team and Vettel has made many mistakes. He spun on his own in Bahrain. While many might disagree with the five-second penalty that took away a victory from Vettel in Montreal for not re-joining the racetrack in a safe manner it was still a case in a race where Vettel was facing very little pressure he could not keep the car on the road.
Once the mistake had been made and the penalty had been handed down, instead of driving to cover the five-second gap, Vettel let Hamilton close and almost had Leclerc get within the five-second delta, which would have dropped Vettel to third.
Ferrari is a mess of sorts. It needs a better vision. Right now it is a group focused on being Ferrari, living up to the previous 90 years but not taking into consideration what has to be done to win in 2019.
The good news is I somehow feel Ferrari and Vettel hit rock-bottom in Germany this past weekend, not last year when Vettel tossed away a victory after going off course in a drizzle, but last week when he had to start 20th. It appeared it couldn't get any worse for Ferrari. Vettel's car failed, Leclerc's car failed in the final round of qualifying and we saw a revival for Vettel, on home soil nonetheless. In a race where he probably would have been happy to get to sixth, Vettel benefitted from the mistakes ahead of him but he also able to harness his aggression and turn last on the grid to a runner-up finish when a spot of the podium appeared to be out of reach at the start of the day.
Who Else Deserves Praise?
I guess Daniil Kvyat and Scuderia Toro Rosso.
Kvyat was third in Germany and while this might seem knee-jerk, Toro Rossos has 42 points, nine more than the team scored last year. The team is one pace for its best season in its history. Kvyat has scored in six of 11 races. He is eighth in the championship, ahead of Kimi Räikkönen, Lando Norris, Daniel Ricciardo, Lance Stroll, Kevin Magnussen, Daniel Ricciardo, Sergio Pérez and Romain Grosjean.
Not bad of a comeback, now is it?
Alexander Albon is coming off his best finish of the season, sixth in Germany, and he has been good. He is second of the four rookies and he hasn't done anything boneheaded.
Who Needs to Turn it Around?
Renault as a whole.
Ricciardo has 22 points. Hülkenberg has 17 points. Both drivers are outside the top ten in the championship. The team has one finish in the top six. Renault has had five retirements this season and neither car made finish in Bahrain with both breaking down after completing 53 of 57 laps.
I don't think Ricciardo thought this season would be a magnificent run where he would be competing for race victories and showing Red Bull he wasn't wrong for leaving but I cannot imagine he thought it would be this rough.
Hülkenberg is a puzzle. For years he was the driver who just needed a break and yet in eight and a half years in Formula One he hasn't even had a day where he snuck on the podium à la Sergio Pérez, who seems to do it once a season, Lance Stroll or Daniil Kvyat. He holds the dubious record of most starts without a podium finish and that record is only growing having now reached 167 starts. The previous record was 128 starts. We have reached "if it hasn't happened now" territory with Hülkenberg. And he is a Le Mans winner! Some things cannot be explained.
What is the Biggest Mess?
Haas!
As an American, I don't want a Formula One team if it is going to be this dysfunctional. This is a chaotic clusterfuck of an organization and it is an embarrassment. Romain Grosjean was once the heralded driver that carried the young team to the front immediately. Now, Grosjean and Kevin Magnussen cannot go a weekend without getting into each other's way.
Add to it Guenther Steiner, the most talkative man in Formula One, and he cannot get his house in order.
And we haven't even mentioned the Rich Energy debacle, which has made the team a laughingstock of the entire motorsports world, not just Formula One.
From the start, Gene Haas has been talking about pulling out of Formula One because of the money he is losing and honestly, just shoot the horse and move on.
I don't care anymore. America never cared. Qualifying fifth in Austria only makes it worse because it shows this team could actually be competitive and yet it sits on 26 points, level with Alfa Romeo.
This was the project of a rich man with money to burn and I am ready for him to move on to some other hobby. Either find an American who is capable of running a race team or sell it to some Nigerian billionaire or maybe Honda can buy it and turn it into a factory operation.
What About Williams?
One team has not had a retirement this season and that is Williams. Williams has one point this season and it came in Germany with Robert Kubica.
It is still depressing to watch because Williams has the third most victories all-time amongst Formula One constructors and it cannot only scrape one point from 11 races despite having a reliable race car and that one point coming after two cars had 30-second penalties added to their race.
I am not sure if I should be happy for George Russell. I feel like the 21-year-old could be doing more with his career. I am happy for Robert Kubica because he got a point nearly eight and a half years after his most recent point. This was a driver who a decade ago could have been a regular race winner and maybe someone who could have challenged for the world championship. Just to see he was able to get a point out of what will largely be remembered as a trying season is something to be happy about.
Who Haven't We Mentioned?
Racing Point because who cares?
Antonio Giovinazzi because he has been disappointing.
Kimi Räikkönen because he is just there.
Pierre Gasly because he is the fourth best of the Red Bull drivers and none of the Red Bull drivers not named Max Verstappen should be in the second Red Bull seat. Honestly, it would be better for Red Bull to bring in Sébastien Buemi, Jean-Éric Vergne, Naoki Yamamoto or Alexander Rossi.
What is Next?
Hungary, which will like be a Mercedes romp because it is what Mercedes does after it gets egg on its face.
For example, last Sunday's German Grand Prix was only the seventh race since 2014 where Mercedes did not put a car on the podium. In the previous six instances, Mercedes won the following race five times, all five victories coming at the hands of Lewis Hamilton and the one time Mercedes didn't win, Hamilton finished second in the British Grand Prix last year after starting on pole position.
After Hungary is the summer break, a good chance for teams to relax and reset before the final portion of the season that features three back-to-backs.
I think we are wondering if Ferrari can put together one race and get a victory and after Vettel's drive at Germany last Sunday, after the hellish year Ferrari has endured, I think we will see everything put right. I still think Ferrari is going to show signs of weakness and make mistakes and there will still be the tussle between Vettel and Leclerc for top billing in the organization. Even when it goes right it is still set up to go wrong.
The one depressing thing about this season is how top heavy it has been. The top five drivers have all scored over 100 points. The bottom 15 drivers have scored a combined 290 points. The top five have scored 832 points, 74.15 % of the points. To be fair, I don't know how this compares to previous seasons but when Gasly in sixth has less than half the points of Leclerc in fifth and you have nine drivers between 13-27 points scored through 11 races it shows a great disparity in the grid and that isn't going to change overnight.
McLaren is the best of the rest and even they are a great distance from getting a podium finish on pace. It is making for and interesting Constructors' Championship with McLaren set in fourth on 40 points but 16 points cover Scuderia Toro Rosso in fifth and Haas and Alfa Romeo, which are tied for eighth with Haas owning the tiebreaker. We talk about how important the Constructors' Championship in terms of paying the teams and Haas is toward the bottom but if it can string together some results it could find itself in the top five. Racing Point needs a good payday. Though these teams are not in the realm of competing for the podium they have a lot to play for in the middle of the field.
The other thing to keep an eye is the future of Valtteri Bottas. We all know Esteban Ocon is the man waiting in the wings. Ocon has been rumored to be heading to Haas or Williams but if Bottas is on the way out, Ocon is filling the second seat at Silver Arrows.
What is next for Bottas? Does Mercedes slot him back at Williams? Would he go to Haas? Haas has to shake up the driver line-up and I think both Grosjean and Magnussen are on the chopping block. Bottas would bring a level of success to the team that Haas has never seen before.
Outside of the second Mercedes seat and Haas, there doesn't seem to be a big shakeup on the horizon. Hamilton is safe. I don't think Ferrari is going to can either of its drivers. Ricciardo isn't leaving Renault. Verstappen isn't leaving Red Bull. I think we are more likely to see one Toro Rosso driver swap with Gasly.
There is no one big coming out. Nyck de Vries has been excellent in Formula Two this season but the former McLaren development driver doesn't seem to be on any team's radar. Nicholas Latifi and Luca Ghiotto have both been respectable in Formula Two. Latifi has run a few Friday practices for Williams. Ghiotto is unattached and looking to sports cars.
Outside of the European pipeline, the one name floating around is Super Formula and Super GT champion Naoki Yamamoto, who Honda loves, and he will get a few Friday practice outings with either Red Bull or Toro Rosso later this season. If Honda wants a Japanese driver on the grid, Yamamoto is the guy and Honda may be in a position of power if Red Bull feels no great tie to its three drivers not named Max Verstappen.
The final things to keep an eye for the rest of 2019 are the 2021 regulations, which will likely be brought up regularly between now and when they are finally released and the 2020 calendar because, while the Dutch Grand Prix is returning and the Vietnam Grand Prix is being introduced, we could see Mexican Grand Prix, German Grand Prix and Spanish Grand Prix disappear, although there have been a few reports Spain could remain on the schedule. We have 20 grand prix confirmed for 2020 and there were 21 races this year. There is room for one of the three to return but probably not two and definitely not all three.
