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| Portland plays pivotal role in penultimate 2019 IndyCar championship battle |
Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday September 1st with green flag scheduled for 3:40 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and Paul Tracy will be in the booth. Kevin Lee, Jon Beekhuis, Dillon Welch and Robin Miller will work pit lane.
IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
First Practice: 1:50 p.m. ET (45 minutes)*
Second Practice: 5:40 p.m. ET (45 minutes)*
Saturday:
Third Practice: 2:00 p.m. ET (45 minutes)*
Qualifying: 6:00 p.m. ET (Live coverage on NBCSN)
Sunday:
Race: 3:40 p.m. ET (105 laps)
* - All practice and qualifying sessions are available live with the NBC Sports Gold IndyCar pass.
Championship Plot Thickens
With two races remaining only 158 points are left on the table and that leaves five drivers mathematically alive for the championship heading into Portland.
Josef Newgarden extended his championship lead to 38 points after Gateway with Simon Pagenaud sliding up to second with Alexander Rossi dropping to third, 46 points behind Newgarden. Scott Dixon's retirement at Gateway leaves him 70 points behind Newgarden. Will Power is 147 points back of his Team Penske teammate; however, Newgarden will eliminate Power for the championship simply by starting the Grand Prix of Portland.
Newgarden cannot clinch the title at Portland. At least he and Pagenaud will be alive for the title heading to Laguna Seca. Currently, there are 24 cars announced for the Laguna Seca finally, meaning the most points that can be gained in that race would be 92 points. If a 25th car were announced, the most points that could be gained would be 94 points.
With 23 cars entered for Portland, the largest Newgarden's championship lead could be if he scores maximum points and Pagenaud scored the fewest points possible is 86 points.
Rossi could be eliminated from championship contention this weekend. If Newgarden scores maximum points and Rossi scores the fewest points possible, Newgarden's championship lead over Rossi would be 94 points. If only 24 cars start at Laguna Seca, Rossi would be eliminated. If 25 cars start at Laguna Seca and Rossi is 94 points behind Newgarden, Rossi would be eliminated from championship contention because Newgarden would own the tiebreaker with more victories than Rossi.
Dixon is in the most precarious position to be eliminated from championship contention. He is only 22-24 points to the good. If Newgarden were to score maximum points at Portland, Dixon would have to score at least 33 points to stay alive, which could be achieved simply with a finish of fourth or better or fifth with at least one bonus point for leading a lap or winning pole position.
Heading into the penultimate race of 2019, Newgarden has four victories to Pagenaud's three victories to Rossi's two victories to Dixon's two victories.
In terms of second place finishes, Dixon leads the way with six runner-up finishes to Rossi's four runner-up finishes to Newgarden's two runner-up finishes and Pagenaud has not finished second this season.
When it comes to third place finishes, all four drivers have finished in third place once in 2019! Dixon was third at Long Beach, Newgarden was third at Road America, Rossi was third at Toronto and Pagenaud was third at Pocono.
If Pagenaud wins the final two races and scores maximum points in each and Newgarden finishes second in both races but scores no bonus points in either race, the two drivers would end up tied on 683 points with Pagenaud winning the title on tiebreaker with five victories to Newgarden's four victories.
If Rossi wins the final two races and scores maximum points in each and Newgarden finishes second in both races but scores no bonus points in either race, Newgarden would win the title by eight points over Rossi.
Sato's Quest For the Double Back-to-Back
Takuma Sato is on path for a career year and Sato returns to the launch pad where this tremendous 2019 season took lift off in 2018.
Sato's victory at Gateway last week was the first time he has had multiple victories in a season. His victory last week was his fourth podium finish of 2019. Prior to this season he had never had more than two podium finishes in a season. He has four top five finishes and this is the third consecutive season he has had at least four top five finishes.
Sato has two pole positions and the only other season he had multiple pole position was his sophomore year in 2011 when he won pole position at Iowa and Edmonton. With the 61 laps led at Gateway, Sato has led 200 laps in 2019, the most laps he has led in a single-season.
Bigger than the results on track, Sato has himself sixth in the championship on 382 points. He is 14 points ahead of Ryan Hunter-Reay, 36 points ahead of Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing teammate Graham Rahal and 56 points ahead of Santino Ferrucci. Sato's best championship finish was eighth in 2017.
Sato picked up consecutive podium finishes for only the second time in his IndyCar earlier this season when he finished third in the Indianapolis 500 and finished third in the first Belle Isle race. The other occurrence was when he won at Long Beach in 2013 and finished second at São Paulo in the following race.
Sato is not only going for consecutive race victories in 2019 but also consecutive Portland victories. Last year, with a bit of fortunate in the form of cautions falling after his pit stops, he won from 20th position in the first Portland race since 2007. He led 25 of 105 laps in last year's race with all 25 laps led coming in the final 35 laps. It is the only time Sato has won a race when starting outside the top five in his IndyCar career.
If Sato were to win at Portland, he would become only the fifth driver to win consecutive Portland races joining Mario Andretti, Michael Andretti (who won three consecutive years from 1990-92), Al Unser, Jr. and Gil de Ferran.
While Sato is having a career year, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing has won two races in a season for the third time since 2015. The team has not had three victories in a season since Buddy Rice won at Indianapolis, Kansas and Michigan in 2004. The most victories for RLLR in a season is six, which came in 2001 with Max Papis and Kenny Bräck and that included a Portland victory at the hands of Papis.
With Graham Rahal sitting eighth in the championship, RLLR is set up to have multiple drivers in the top ten of the championship for the first time since 2004 when Rice finished third and Vitor Meira finished eighth in the championship despite missing the first two races.
Rookie of the Year Battle
As mentioned above, Santino Ferrucci is ninth in the championship on 326 points and Ferrucci is leading the Rookie of the Year standings but it is tight at the top.
Felix Rosenqvist had been the top rookie after the previous five races but he is now top in points behind Ferrucci and Rosenqvist rounds out the top ten in the overall championship. Prior to Gateway, the only times Ferrucci has been the top rookie in the championship were after the Indianapolis 500 and Texas.
Colton Herta was the top rookie after Austin, Barber and Long Beach but he has dropped to third amongst the rookies and he is 14th overall in the championship on 282 points, 44 points behind Ferrucci. Marcus Ericsson is 17th in the championship, 74 points behind Ferrucci.
While Ferrucci was the cream of the crop of the rookies on ovals with three top five finishes, four top ten finishes and an average finish of 6.2 and he scored the fourth most oval points, 170 points, behind only Pagenaud, Newgarden and Rossi, the road courses results have not been as stellar.
Ferrucci's average finish in ten road and street course races is 14.6 with an average starting position of 16.2 and he has made it out of the first round of qualifying only once when he started tenth at Barber. Ferrucci has not been the top rookie finisher in any of the ten road and street course races in 2019.
Rosenqvist has an average finish of 8.8 in the ten road and street course races and he is coming off a runner-up finish at Mid-Ohio last time out. He has four top five finishes and eight top ten finishes from the ten twisty races in 2019. He has started in the top ten in seven of those races and he has advanced to the second round of qualifying on six of eight occasions with Fast Six appearances on five occasions. The only drivers to make the Fast Six more than Rosenqvist are Dixon, Power and Rossi, who have all made six appearances, and Newgarden is level with Rosenqvist having made the Fast Six at five races.
After a rough spring, Herta has turned it around and he has three consecutive top ten finishes on road and street circuits and Herta has made it out of the first round of qualifying on seven of eight occasions with the lone exception being at Toronto, where he started 16th. Herta has the fifth best average starting position in 2019 at 7.7857 behind only Newgarden, Rossi, Dixon and Power.
Marcus Ericsson will miss the Portland race due to reserve driver commitments for Alfa Romeo Racing at the Belgian Grand Prix in Spa-Francorchamps. Conor Daly will substitute for Ericsson in the #7 Arrow Honda at Portland. Ericsson has two finishes in the top ten on road and street courses with finishes seventh at Barber and second in the second Belle Isle race.
Loose Ends
Will Power is coming off his sixth finish outside the top ten in 2019 and his second results outside the top twenty this season. Power enters Portland fifth in the championship, 34 points ahead of Sato. Power has finished in the top five of the championship in nine consecutive seasons. In three Portland starts, Power has finishes of 18th, fourth and 21st.
Ryan Hunter-Reay sits seventh in the championship and he was the runner-up finish last year at Portland. It was the first time Hunter-Reay has finished in the top ten in Portland in four starts. His previous best result was 12th in 2004. Hunter-Reay has finished in the top five in the 16th race of the season the last four years but he has never won the 16th race of the season.
James Hinchcliffe sits eight points outside the top ten of the championship. Hinchcliffe has finished outside the top ten in three consecutive races. Hinchcliffe has made 11 starts in his career in the month of September. The only time Hinchcliffe has finished in the top ten in the month of September was when he finished seventh at Baltimore in 2013. His average finish in September races is 16.727.
Sébastien Bourdais is four points behind Hinchcliffe in 12th in the championship. Bourdais has five consecutive podium finishes at Portland and he has two victories. He could tie Michael Andretti and Al Unser, Jr. for the record of most Portland victories. Bourdais is 14 points behind his teammate Ferrucci in the championship. The only time Bourdais has run and full season and finished behind a teammate in the championship was his rookie season with Newman/Haasin Racing in 2003 when Bruno Junqueira was second in the championship to Paul Tracy and Bourdais was fourth.
Tony Kanaan is coming off his first podium finish since 2015 after he was third at Gateway. Kanaan has yet to finish in the top ten on a road or street course this season with his best result being 12th at Austin. He has two top ten finishes at Portland, a fourth in 1998 and an eighth in 2002. Kanaan's active streak of 315 consecutive starts began at Portland in 2001.
Jack Harvey is back for his ninth race of 2019 with Meyer Shank Racing. This is the first time MSR and Harvey will be at the track since Mid-Ohio. The team has four top ten finishes in eight starts this season, which includes a third place finish in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis in May. Prior to this season, Harvey's best finish was 12th. Harvey has advanced to the second round of qualifying on four of seven occasions in 2019.
Road to Indy
This is the penultimate weekend for all three Road to Indy series as well and none of these championships have been decided.
Oliver Askew has won five consecutive races and with the Andretti Autosport driver sitting on 395 points and a 52-point advantage over Juncos Racing's Rinus VeeKay there is a chance Askew could lock up the championship this weekend.
If Askew exits Portland with a 64-point lead or more he will clinch the 2019 Indy Lights championship. If he has a championship lead of 38 points or more after Portland all he will have to do is show up and start the final two races of the season at Laguna Seca.
Askew won last year at Portland in Pro Mazda and he finished third in the second Pro Mazda race from Portland. VeeKay was runner-up in both Pro Mazda races last year at Portland.
Ryan Norman is third in the championship on 295 points, 20 points ahead of Andretti teammate Robert Megennis and Toby Sowery rounds out the top five on 270 points. All three drivers are mathematically still alive for the championship.
David Malukas was the third place finisher at Gateway and he has 242 points, putting him sixth in the championship. Malukas won the second Pro Mazda race at Portland last year. Dalton Kellett is seventh on 213 points with Lucas Kohl on 200 points.
Indy Lights will race at 4:50 p.m. ET on Saturday August 31st and at 12:35 p.m. ET on Sunday September 1st.
The Indy Pro 2000 championship is down to single-digit points between Rasmus Lindh and Kyle Kirkwood. Kirkwood has won four consecutive races and six of the last seven to narrow the deficit to six points behind him and Lindh. Lindh has finished on the podium in six consecutive races and he has not finished worse than fourth this season.
Kirkwood swept the U.S. F2000 races last year at Portland and Lindh was fourth and second in those two races.
Parker Thompson is third in the Indy Pro 2000 championship on 259 points, 64 points behind Lindh. Daniel Frost is five points behind Thompson and Sting Ray Robb rounds out the top five with 241 points. These three drivers are mathematically alive for the Indy Pro 2000 championship.
The first Indy Pro 2000 race of the weekend will be at 8:25 p.m. ET on Saturday August 31st with the second race of the weekend scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET on Sunday September 1st.
U.S. F2000 has been off since Mid-Ohio and that championship took a dramatic turn during the month of July.
Braden Eves' championship lead is down to nine points over Hunter McElrea. Eves has failed to finish on the podium in the last four races and he finished outside the top five in each Mid-Ohio race while McElrea has three podium finishes in the last four races, including a runner-up finish and a victory at Mid-Ohio.
Darren Keane is third in the championship on 207 points, 53 points behind Eves. Keane had finishes of ninth and sixth at Mid-Ohio but prior to that he had three consecutive podium finishes. Colin Kaminsky is fourth on 199 points after a pair of third place finishes at Mid-Ohio and Christian Rasmussen rounds out the top five on 198 points after finishes of second, first, first and second in the last four races.
Manuel Sulaimán, Cameron Shields, Bruna Tomaselli and Jak Crawford are all mathematically eligible for the U.S. F2000 title entering Portland but all four drivers are 99 or more points behind Eves.
U.S. F2000's first race will be at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday August 31st with the second race at 7:15 p.m. ET on Sunday September 1st.
Fast Facts
This is going to be the 18th IndyCar race on September 1st and first since Simon Pagenaud won at Baltimore in 2013.
Michael Andretti won twice on September 1st, in 1991 and 1996, with both victories at Vancouver.
The last three races held on September 1st have been won from pole position by Andretti in 1991, second by Andretti in 1996 and third by Pagenaud in 2013.
Bobby Rahal won on September 1, 1985 at Mid-Ohio. It was the sixth victory of his career. Graham Rahal enters Portland with six career victories.
The average starting position for a Portland winner is 4.16 with a median of third.
Last year, Takuma Sato's victory from 20th was only the second time a Portland winner has started outside the top ten. The other winner that started outside the top ten was Mark Blundell from 11th in 1997.
Sato's victory last year was only the fifth time the Portland winner started outside the top ten.
Twenty of 25 Portland races have been won from a top five starting position.
The pole-sitter has not won the last three Portland races. The longest stretch without a pole-sitter winning at Portland is five races, which occurred from 1989-93.
The last two IndyCar races have been won from fifth position. The last time the same starting position produced three consecutive winners was last year when Alexander Rossi, Josef Newgarden and Will Power all won from pole position at Long Beach, Barber and the Grand Prix of Indianapolis.
This is the first time the fifth starting position has produced consecutive winners since 2006 when A.J. Allmendinger won at Road America and Nelson Philippe won at Surfers Paradise. It was the final victory for both drivers in their IndyCar careers.
Fifth starting position produced consecutive winners in 2005 when Bruno Junqueira won at Monterrey and Paul Tracy won at Milwaukee. It was the final victory of Junqueira's career and the antepenultimate victory of Tracy's career.
In 1965, five consecutive races were won from fifth starting position with Johnny Rutherford picking up his first career victory at Atlanta, Jim McElreath getting his third of five career victories at Langhorne, Joe Leonard getting this first career victory at Milwaukee, A.J. Foyt winning at Springfield and Gordon Johncock getting his first career victory at Milwaukee.
Fifth starting position produced three consecutive winners with A.J. Foyt winning at Sacramento in the penultimate race in 1964, Lloyd Ruby winning the final race at Phoenix and Don Branson winning the 1965 season opener from Phoenix.
Tony Bettenhausen won consecutive races in 1951 from fifth starting position at Milwaukee and Langhorne.
That concludes every time fifth starting position has won consecutive races in IndyCar history since the conclusion of World War II.
The only time a Portland winner started fifth was with Alex Zanardi in 1998.
The average number of lead changes in a Portland race is 5.68 with a median of five.
Last year's race had nine lead changes, tying the 1988 race for most lead changes in a Portland race.
The average number of cautions in a Portland race is 6.52 with a median of seven. The average number of caution laps is 7.48 with a median of five.
Possible Milestones:
Will Power is one podium finishes away from 75 podium finishes.
Sébastien Bourdais needs to lead 47 laps to reach the 2,700 laps led milestone.
Ryan Hunter-Reay needs to lead 55 laps to reach the 1,600 laps led milestone.
James Hinchcliffe needs to lead 24 laps to reach the 800 laps led milestone.
Graham Rahal needs to lead 12 laps to reach the 400 laps led milestone.
Predictions
Alexander Rossi wins this race because he has to win this race to get himself back into a great position in the championship fight heading to Laguna Seca. Josef Newgarnen will finish in the top five and finish ahead of Simon Pagenaud. Scott Dixon does not get into a lap one accident nor does he get a pit lane speeding penalty and he will finish ahead of Ed Jones in this race. James Hinchcliffe gets a top ten finish. A.J. Foyt Racing has one car qualify in the top 14. Max Chilton qualifies ahead of Charlie Kimball. Sleeper: Colton Herta.
