Sunday, September 1, 2019

First Impressions: Portland 2019

1. For a driver that has had plenty of bad fortune this season, Will Power got a little bit of what comes around today. This might not have been Power's day but through mechanical problems for Scott Dixon and poor tire management for Colton Herta, Power ended up inheriting the lead. What also ended up in Power's favor is he used the alternate tire on the first stint, when the top five remained tightly packed together. On the second stint, Power had the primary tire and with Dixon out of his way he had clean racetrack to run away from the field.

Power went unchallenged for the second half of the race, outside of that final restart, but even then no one came close to touching Power. He picked up his second victory of 2019 and his 37th career victory, putting him in a tie with Sébastien Bourdais for sixth all-time. This was Power's first victory at Portland and his 21st different track where he has won, only Mario Andretti, Dario Franchitti and Scott Dixon have won at more.

Power can look back at a handful of races and missed opportunities and that is what is keeping him from being a championship contender heading to Laguna Seca. However, Power again is setting up a strong end to a season. He did the same thing at the end of 2013 and it led to a title the following year. Power still has the pace and 2020 will be another chance for him to claim the top spot.

This time next year we could be looking at today's result as the first domino to fall on a second title for Power.

2. Another road course race and another runner-up finish for Felix Rosenqvist. Rosenqvist has gotten the results this year. He has remained on the heels of Dixon and that has put him in a spot to pick up these type of results when Dixon falters.

Rosenqvist lost this race on the second stint when he took the alternate tire. Power had the advantage from there and it was going to take a monumental drive for Rosenqvist to flip that. Looking back at Mid-Ohio, maybe this could have been Rosenqvist's chance to jump to a three-stop strategy late, get off the alternate tire earlier than the two-stoppers and maybe he would have had a late charge on Power.

That is a hypothetical we will never get to see but Rosenqvist has shown he has the pace to keep up the front-runners. He will get one more chance as a victory in 2019 in three weeks at Laguna Seca but he is set up for an encouraging sophomore campaign.

3. Alexander Rossi took out points in the gap to Josef Newgarden but this was a weekend where he should have gotten more. Rossi had plenty of opportunities to cut this down to 20 points or 25 points. Newgarden didn't advance to round two in qualifying and had to start 13th. Rossi missed out on the Fast Six and had to start seventh. Rossi couldn't get to the front of the pack and all the pieces that started between him and Newgarden were mostly knocked out of the way in the first fifth of the race.

Rossi heads to Portland 41 points behind Newgarden. It is not insurmountable but he could have been a much smaller hill for Rossi to attack. The most important thing is he is still alive and after the blunder of cutting a tire in turn one last year at Sonoma Rossi knows how important it will be to take control of the weekend at Laguna Seca if he hopes to win the Astor Cup in 2019.

4. Colton Herta got bit when it came to the alternate tire. The team made him run as long as he could on the first stint, mostly to make each following stop shorter and to make sure he did not have to conserve fuel but he lost all the ground there and quickly fell out of race contention.

A similar thing happened at Road America. The team made the wrong tire strategy and it cost him late. This time it cost him early but the deficit was too much to make up. Herta had the pace this weekend to win. It is a shame he wasn't on the podium but at 19 years old he is at a competitive level that is far above most on the grid. He has made some mistakes this year but his cars have let him down as well, see Barber, Indianapolis and Iowa.

The pace isn't going to go away but if the reliability improves it would not be crazy to think Herta could head to Portland in 2020 as a 20 year old and a championship contender.

5. We touched upon Josef Newgarden above but when Graham Rahal barreled into Zach Veach and Conor Daly at the start, the 15th place starter took out the ninth place starter and the 11th place starter. The 13th place starter, Newgarden got through without being touched.

This will be one of these days where Newgarden can look at and say this is where he won the title. Pocono is another. In the big incidents where multiple cars were taken out, Newgarden avoided all of those incidents. This could have been a race where Newgarden started 13th and was stuck, not getting higher than ninth or tenth despite fighting his heart out. Newgarden keeps it clean and when you do that you get results like today.

The gap isn't large enough to say Newgarden has a hand on the Astor Cup. If Newgarden's worse day befalls him in Monterey then it is on the table for Rossi or Simon Pagenaud to snag but Newgarden has done everything right this season. It is Newgarden's for the taking.

6. Last year, Spencer Pigot had an inspiring drive at Portland. He did the same thing this year. Ed Carpenter Racing has been bipolar this year. The oval pace has been there but not at the level to win a race. The road course pace has been there at times. The team has made the second round of qualifying and looked like a sleeper for the race only for it not to come close to panning out. Today, Pigot was good even after being spun in that first corner accident. He was the only car to continue after the lap one turn one mess. Who knows what he could have done if it had not been for that early set back.

7. Simon Pagenaud comes home in seventh. He never really appeared to have the pace this weekend to fight at the front and seventh is a good day. It keeps him in the fight, 42 points behind Newgarden.

8. Attrition is how Matheus Leist got this eighth place finish. It should be noted Leist put on tires before that final restart and he made up two positions but Leist kept his nose clean and it got him his second best finish of his IndyCar career. Good for him!

9. Sébastien Bourdais' streak of podium finishes at Portland ends at five and this was a race where a long first stop cost him dearly. I don't know if he was going to challenge for the podium but he could have been up there fighting Newgarden for a top five.

10. Charlie Kimball gets another top ten finish without being flashy. This is whom Kimball is and a team should take a crack at him. He gets results and does not tear up a lot of equipment. There has to be someone interested in him. Shout out to Max Chilton who finished 11th! It was a result Chilton needed.

11. Quickly through the rest of the field: Tony Kanaan was 12th and it seems like pit strategy went against him, maybe tire strategy as well. Marco Andretti was in the top ten for most of this race but contact with Pagenaud damaged his wing and forced him to make an extra stop. Andretti was better than 13th today. Ed Jones did nothing and finished 14th. Takuma Sato had some damage at the start and the best he was going to do is 15th. Santino Ferrucci had a mechanical failure and that was his first retirement of the year.

12. Scott Dixon had the car slow while leading. This was appearing to be a day where Dixon would pull out a victory, take a chunk out of the championship lead and head to Laguna Seca about 55 points behind Newgarden, a scary gap knowing Dixon's late season heroic. That wasn't meant to be today but Dixon is still alive, 85 points behind Newgarden.

Dixon has left a lot of points on the table. Some of it has been out of his hands. There was no way he could have stopped debris from penetrating his radiator at Gateway or the electrical issues today. He was caught in a racing incident with Colton Herta at Texas and he got some damage in the Indianapolis 500 when other drivers got together ahead of him and he had nowhere to go. He made his share of mistakes, hitting the barrier at Belle Isle while in a podium position. Dixon has been great this year. Flip two or three of those races around and Dixon is still heading to Laguna Seca alive for the title but within serious striking distance.

It will take a colossal collapse or a colossal amount of misfortune on Newgarden's part for Dixon to take the title but it is Scott Dixon, do not rule him out.

13. Ryan Hunter-Reay and Graham Rahal made poor decisions today. Hunter-Reay defended aggressively against his teammate Rossi for fifth early in the race. The distraction in Hunter-Reay's mirrors took his attention off his braking point and he slid into Jack Harvey, who was set to have another great day.

Nobody likes team orders but man team orders would have benefitted Rossi and Hunter-Reay today. It would have given Rossi a position and it would have kept Hunter-Reay and Harvey on the track, two drivers that could have finished between Rossi and Newgarden and they could have helped Rossi in terms of the deficit.

Rahal was never going to make the first corner. He hit Veach, Veach slid into James Hinchcliffe and Conor Daly was clipped when Rahal's car continued to skid. This is the second time in three races Hondas took out a slew of Hondas. It was five Hondas at Pocono and it was four today. These were four more cars that could have helped Rossi.

It was a shame Daly and Veach could not take advantage of great qualifying performances and Hinchcliffe and Schmidt Peterson Motorsports again find themselves in a late season nosedive. They will have one shot to end this season on a high note.

14. It was bad enough there was a four-car incident on lap one. It was worse that they had to tow Hinchcliffe and Veach's car all the way around the entire racetrack to get them back to pit lane. It was terrible that the officials had to organize the field before opening pit lane and that is how the first 12 laps were run under caution.

These long cautions are not as numerous as they once were in IndyCar but it is still frustrating. I know why Hinchcliffe and Veach had to be towed around the entire length of the circuit but there has to be a quicker way to get cars stopped in turn one back to the paddock or pit lane, especially on a road course.

Once again, not the end of the world, not ideal either but this is a rare occurrence and this could be something where changes are made to improve decrease caution length in the future.

15. Let's set up the championship picture: Josef Newgarden leads Alexander Rossi by 41 points, Simon Pagenaud by 42 points and Scott Dixon by 85 points. A top five finish at Laguna Seca can pretty much seal the title for him. That is not much wiggle room in case either Rossi or Pagenaud win. Rossi and Pagenaud are going to have to be superb. Dixon is going to need help. It is going to go down to the wire again.

16. We have two weekends off and then the season finale from Laguna Seca. For three weeks we will talk about these four drivers and go over every possible scenario for this championship. We will have plenty to keep us busy and distract us from the looming offseason. Enjoy these final days of summer and the season.