Josef Newgarden won his second IndyCar championship. Colton Herta picked up his second IndyCar race victory. There were three other champions from the weekend at Laguna Seca and some pretty good races across the board. Elsewhere, NASCAR had a night race. Formula One had a night race. MotoGP had a race from Spain. Blancpain GT World Challenge America raced in the wet at Road America. Super GT raced in the wet at Sportsland SUGO. European Le Mans Series was at Spa-Francorchamps. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.
2019 IndyCar Predictions: Revisited
It is the traditional Monday after the IndyCar season finale look back at the season through predictions made in December.
All I can say is this was my worse year yet and it was nearly not this bad.
1. There will be multiple first time race winners in 2019
Wrong! Colton Herta was the only first time winner in 2019 and he won twice! I wish I could spin a teenager winning twice in one season into a correct prediction but I cannot.
It wasn't that other drivers didn't come close. Felix Rosenqvist was second at Mid-Ohio by less than a tenth of a second and he had another runner-up result at Portland. If Rosenqvist was allowed to advance from the first round of qualifying at Laguna Seca he very well may have won that race.
Besides Rosenqvist, Santino Ferrucci was fourth at Gateway on a night where he led 97 laps and the top three finishers all leapfrogged to the front by not making their final pit stops before the final caution for Sébastien Bourdais' spin.
One other shout out to the fourth regular rookie Marcus Ericsson, who was second in the second Belle Isle race. That wasn't a race he was going to win, Scott Dixon had that one covered, but Ericsson still finished second.
Outside of those four, no other driver looking for a first career victory came close. Spencer Pigot had a pair of top five finishes. Matheus Leist lucked into a fourth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Zach Veach was lost most of the season. The winless veterans did not look good in 2019.
2. There will be no more than three cars failing to qualify for the Indianapolis 500
Correct! Only three cars failed to qualify for the Indianapolis 500, all three were Chevrolets and all three had ties to the Carlin operation. The entries for Max Chilton and Patricio O'Ward were outright Carlin entires while the McLaren entry of Fernando Alonso was run in conjunction with Carlin.
Thirty-six cars seemed to be most conceivable entry list total when all the rumors were swirling in the winter months. Remember at one point we were thinking 38 or 39 entries were possible. The engine leases were always going to prevent it from reach those levels though we may have been able to construct a path to those levels.
Eighteen apiece for each manufacture was a good number. The three extra entries allowed for a nail-biting Last Row Shootout and none of the 36 entries were out of place. Any of those cars could have been in the race on another day.
3. Passing will be down in over half the street course races but up in over half the oval races
Correct and wrong! Passing was down at four of five street courses but passing was also down at four of five oval races! The statistics are below:
Street Courses
2018 (Passes/Passes For Position)
St. Petersburg: 366/283
Long Beach: 200/134
Belle Isle I: 96/82
Belle Isle II: 144/60
Toronto: 184/148
2019
St. Petersburg: 117/73 (-68.03%/-74.2%)
Long Beach: 95/40 (-52.5/-70.14%)
Belle Isle I: 86/85 (-10.41%/+3.65%)
Belle Isle II: 146/97 (+1.38%/+61.667%)
Toronto: 168/121 (-8.69%/-18.2%)
Ovals:
2018
Indianapolis: 633/428
Texas: 688/242
Iowa: 955/234
Pocono: 135/53
Gateway: 396/137
2019
Indianapolis: 584/323 (-7.74%/-24.53%)
Texas: 579/200 (-15.84/-17.35%)
Iowa: 579/263 (-39.37%/+12.39%)
Pocono: 161/109 (+19.25%/+105.66%)
Gateway: 275/169 (-30.55%/+23.35%)
I am not going to go into a deep dive of these numbers now. I will do that next week but, as I said when making these predictions back in December, we cannot depend independently on the passing numbers to decide whether a race was good or not. There are a lot of things that go into a race and letting passing numbers decide it all is a foolish thing to do.
4. Simon Pagenaud wins multiple races and more than double his podium finishes from 2018
Correct! Pagenaud won three times and he had four podium finishes, up from zero victories and two podium finishes in 2018.
This was the turnaround year Pagenaud was looking for and may have needed. It appears Pagenaud saved his Team Penske seat with an incredible month of May, taking victories in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and the Indianapolis 500. Both performances were magnificent. The Grand Prix of Indianapolis saw Pagenaud run at a demon's pace in the wet. The Indianapolis 500 was a strong outing, one where a late caution created battle with Alexander Rossi with the Frenchman coming out on top.
There is still room for improvement. Four podium finishes is a low total. He had only seven top five finishes. Through the first 11 races his only top five finishes were his three victories.
While the expectations are high for Pagenaud, his consistent record must be noted. In 152 starts, Pagenaud has been running at the finish of 143 races. He has 127 lead lap finishes. He has more victories than he has retirements and he has more podium finishes than he has lapped finishes.
If Penske had let Pagenaud go he would be have gone elsewhere and won races and contended for championships.
5. Will Power will start at least one race outside the top ten
Correct! And Power not only started outside the top ten once but four times, including in three consecutive races from Belle Isle to Texas, the first time he has failed to start outside the top ten in consecutive races since 2008.
Power had an incredible record. He started in the top ten in 33 consecutive races from the second Belle Isle race in 2017 to the Indianapolis 500 in 2019. That is basically two consecutive seasons of top ten starts. No one else is close to a streak of that length.
For all those starts to come in three consecutive races was a surprise, especially with two of them coming at Belle Isle.
6. Sébastien Bourdais has at least three podium finishes
Wrong! Bourdais had one podium finish and it was third at Barber.
That result feels like a lifetime ago. It wasn't a terrible year for Bourdais but after he won the season opener in the previous two seasons, and was highly competitive, 2019 was a step back. He had good days but we didn't have that day where Bourdais was at the front and mixing it up with Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing and Andretti Autosport.
Bourdais made only two appearances in the Fast Six this year. He only led 19 laps. He had a good year but IndyCar is tough and a team like Dale Coyne Racing is going to ebb and flow.
He didn't get three podium finishes in 2019 but he very well could do it in 2020.
7. Both Harding Steinbrenner Racing drivers score more points per start than Gabby Chaves
Correct! Kind of...
Unfortunately, we only had one Harding Steinbrenner Racing driver for 2019, as the rug was pulled out from underneath Patricio O'Ward on the eve of the 2019 season.
It is a damn shame because this time last year O'Ward and Colton Herta had not only made their IndyCar debuts but were paraded pre-game at Yankee Stadium as this new lineup for an IndyCar team. Only half the team showed up. O'Ward was left on the sidelines and while he did get in a car for a handful of races, O'Ward 2019 was far from planned.
Herta averaged 24.705 points per race, more than Chaves' 14.384 points per race. Though O'Ward ran for Carlin, he averaged 16.428 points per race. Technically, both announced HSR drivers on January 1, 2019 had more points per race than Chaves.
Speaking of Chaves, that is a name we unfortunately did not hear from in 2019 and that is a shame. Chaves has done well in less than stellar equipment. In his career, Chaves has finished 37 of 39 starts and he has completed 95.6% of the laps in his 39 starts. He is a smart driver and it is bad thing that we did not get to see him anywhere in 2019.
8. There will be at least two races with three rookies finishing in the top ten
Wrong! Amazingly, I got this one wrong and I say amazingly because it happened in the first race of the season and never happened again.
Let's go over the top three rookies in every race in 2019:
St. Petersburg: Rosenqvist (4th), Herta (8th), Ferrucci (9th)
Austin: Herta (1st), Patricio O'Ward (8th), Ericsson (15th)
Barber: Ericsson (7th), Rosenqvist (10th), Ferrucci (15th)
Long Beach: Rosenqvist (10th), O'Ward (12th), Ericsson (20th)
Grand Prix of Indianapolis: Rosenqvist (8th), Ferrucci (10th), O'Ward (19th)
Indianapolis 500: Ferrucci (7th), Ericsson (23rd), Rosenqvist (28th)
Belle Isle I: Rosenqvist (4th), Herta (12th), Ericsson (13th)
Belle Isle II: Ericsson (2nd), Ferrucci (10th), O'Ward (11th)
Texas: Ferrucci (4th), Ericsson (7th), Rosenqvist (12th)
Road America: Rosenqvist (6th), Herta (8th), Ercisson (13th)
Toronto: Rosenqvist (5th), Herta (7th), Ferrucci (11th)
Iowa: Ericsson (11th), Ferrucci (12th), Rosenqvist (14th)
Mid-Ohio: Rosenqvist (2nd), Herta (8th), Ferrucci (12th)
Pocono: Ferrucci (4th), Ericsson (12th), Herta (16th)
Gateway: Ferrucci (4th), Herta (9th), Rosenqvist (11th)
Portland: Rosenqvist (2nd), Herta (4th), Ferrucci (17th)
Laguna Seca: Herta (1st), Rosenqvist (5th), Ericsson (11th)
It nearly happened in the second race. Ericsson was solidly in the top ten before getting a penalty for unsafe pit release. It is kind of hard to fathom how it didn't happen more than once.
Other close calls came at Belle Isle, Texas, Toronto, Gateway and Laguna Seca. Ericsson nearly made it reality at the finale but he just didn't have the tires at the end of his stint. Maybe it would have happened if Patricio O'Ward was full-time. Actually, if O'Ward had been full-time with Harding Steinbrenner Racing, it would have happened at least four or five times.
Though three rookies in the top ten only happened once, the only race not to have a rookie in the top ten was Iowa and there were 12 races with at least two rookies in the top ten. There were 11 races with at least one rookie in the top five including for final five races.
This was a talented rookie class. We may have to go back and see where it ranks but I cannot recall another year where this many rookies were consistent in the top half of the field and at the front.
9. There will not be a race decided under caution, barred rain-shortened races
Wrong! Will Power is to blame. We were good until the final lap at Toronto. If Power doesn't put it in the turn eight tires, we are good on this one. Credit to Power though because he tried very hard to get out of the tires and continue and not end the race right then and there.
10. Honda wins the most races for the second consecutive season
Wrong! Chevrolet took the crown with nine victories.
Team Penske did it on its own and that is not a surprise but a surprise when you consider the strength of the Honda fleet. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing and Harding Steinbrenner Racing each won twice and Chevrolet still came out on top. What does that say about this season? If you were told RLLR would have two race victories you would likely think Ganassi would have at least three or four victories and Andretti Autosport would have three or four victories as well.
The odd thing about this season is RLLR and HSR had as many victories as Ganassi and Andretti. Scott Dixon won twice and Alexander Rossi won twice. That was it from Honda's top two operations and that is probably a disappointment for each. I am not sure if it leads to questions for Honda or Ganassi and Andretti.
I don't think Honda can be that peeved. It is kind of how IndyCar is and a manufacture can lose a race but not because it was completely outclassed. Texas was a race that in any other year Ryan Hunter-Reay, Rossi or Dixon wins and this year Newgarden pulled it out. At Indianapolis, Rossi lost a one-on-one fight with Pagenaud. In 2014, Hunter-Reay won a one-on-one fight with Hélio Castroneves. Honda and Chevrolet are even. If Ed Jones doesn't end up in the tires at Belle Isle, Rossi likely wins the first Belle Isle race over Newgarden.
Honda doesn't have to go back to the drawing board but Andretti Autosport might have to ask some questions. One driver won a race. The other three drivers combined for two podium finishes and both were at the hands of Hunter-Reay.
The same will not be good enough in 2020.
11. The first caution in the Indianapolis 500 does not come after a lead lap car runs into a lapped car
Correct! It was because Colton Herta had a gearbox failure after three laps and he parked it off course in turn four.
Nobody wants to see a caution that early and nobody wanted to see Herta's Indianapolis 500 debut end after less than ten miles, especially after he qualified fifth!
12. Every driver in the top twenty of the championship starts every race.
Wrong!
How could we have seen what happened in 2019 coming?
How could we have seen Patricio O'Ward losing a ride before the season started, two Carlin cars failing to qualify for the Indianapolis 500 and that leads to Max Chilton stepping away from the remaining oval races and Marcus Ericsson being called to be on standby for the Belgian Grand Prix because Kimi Räikkönen hurt his back and Alfa Romeo needed someone just in case Räikkönen wasn't fit enough?
Maybe there is a reason there has never been a time in IndyCar history none of the top twenty in the championship started every race. Motorsports is too unpredictable.
Five and a half out of 12, less than 50%. That is disappointing. On to next year.
Champions From the Weekend
You know about Josef Newgarden but did you know...
Oliver Askew clinched the Indy Lights championship with finishes of fourth and second from Laguna Seca. Rinus VeeKay swept the race victories.
Kyle Kirkwood clinched the Indy Pro 2000 championship with a victory in the first race from Laguna Seca. He retired from the second race after a lap one accident. Rasmus Lindh won the final race.
Braden Eves clinched the U.S. F2000 championship with finishes of fourth and first at Laguna Seca. The first race of the weekend went to Christian Rasmussen.
The #51 Luzich Racing Ferrari of Alessandro Pier Guidi, Niklas Nielsen and Fabien Lavergne clinched the European Le Mans Series GTE championship after it won in the GTE class at the 4 Hours of Spa-Francorchamps.
Winners From the Weekend
You know about what happened at Laguna Seca but did you know...
Sebastian Vettel won the Singapore Grand Prix, his first victory of the season and his 53rd career victory.
Marc Márquez won MotoGP's Aragón Grand Prix, his second consecutive victory and his eighth victory of the season. This is Márquez's fourth consecutive victory at Aragón. Brad Binder won the Moto2 race, his second victory of the season and his second consecutive victory at Aragón. Arón Canet won the Moto3 race, his third victory of the season.
Martin Truex, Jr. won the NASCAR race from Richmond, his second consecutive victory and his sixth victory of the season. Christopher Bell won the Grand National Series race, his seventh victory of the season.
The #22 United Autosports Oreca-Gibson of Filipe Albuquerque and Phil Hanson won the 4 Hours of Spa-Francorchamps overall. The #11 Eurointernational Ligier-Nissan of Mikkel Jensen and Jens Peterman won in the LMP3 class.
The #3 NDDP Racing with B-Max Nissan GT-R of Frédéric Makowiecki and Kohei Hirate won the Super GT race from Sportsland SUGO. The #55 ARTA Honda NSX of Nirei Fukuzumi and Shinichi Takagi won in GT300.
The #61 R.Ferri Motorsport Ferrari of Daniel Serra and Toni Vilander and the #43 RealTime Racing Acura of Mike Hedlund and Dane Cameron split the Blancpain GT World Challenge America races. The #34 Murillo Racing Mercedes-AMG of Matt Fassnacht and Christian Szymczak and the #77 Park Place Motorsports Porsche of Alan Brynjolfsson and Trent Hindman split the GT4 America SprintX races. Michael Cooper swept the GT4 America sprint races.
Coming Up This Weekend
NASCAR ends the first round of the playoffs at Charlotte Motor Speedway on the roval.
Formula One has the second leg of a back-to-back in Russia.
Super Formula has its penultimate round in 2019 at Okayama.
World Superbike has its final round in Europe at Magny-Cours.
The Blancpain Endurance Series season ends with a three-hour race in Barcelona.
Covering All Motorsports. From Indianapolis to Le Mans, Daytona to Monaco.
