Sunday, September 1, 2019

Morning Warm-Up: Portland 2019

Colton Herta claimed another pole position
Colton Herta won his second pole position of 2019 with a lap of 57.811 seconds at Portland International Raceway. Herta becomes the sixth different driver with multiple pole positions in 2019 and this is the first time at least six different drivers have won at least two pole positions in a season since the 1997 CART season. His father Bobby led 20 laps in his career at Portland, all coming in the 1998 race, where he started on pole position and finished third. Herta could become the only driver in IndyCar history multiple victories as a teenager. Herta could become the youngest driver to win a race from pole position in IndyCar history. Three of his father's four IndyCar victories came from pole position. Herta ran both Indy Lights races at Portland last year with his results being second and fourth.

Will Power will start second and Power was 0.0192 seconds off Herta. Only twice has Power won from second on the grid and both times came in Canada. He won from second starting position at Toronto in 2010 and he won from second at Edmonton in 2011. Power has not finished in the top five in the penultimate race of a season since he won at Houston in 2013. The only other times he has finished in the top five of the penultimate race of the season were in 2010 and 2011 when he finished third and second respectively at Motegi. The 2011 Motegi race was held on the road course after damage from the Tōhoku earthquake.

Scott Dixon will start in third position after he was 0.0244 seconds off Herta in the final round of qualifying. Dixon has won a race at 23 different tracks in his IndyCar career but he has never won at Portland. If Dixon were to win at Portland this weekend he would tie Dario Franchitti for second most different tracks won at. The last "new" track Dixon won at was Road America in 2017. Dixon has finished in the top ten in all three of his Portland starts with results of seventh, seventh and fifth. Dixon had never led a lap at Portland. The only other track where Dixon has made at least three starts and never led a lap is Baltimore, where he made three starts.

Jack Harvey falls one spot shy of matching his career best starting position but for the second time in 2019 he will start on the second row of the grid. Harvey has finished in the top fifteen of every natural-terrain road course this season and he has top ten finishes in three of five natural-terrain road course races in 2019. This will be Harvey's 18th career start. Four drivers have scored their first career victory in their 18th career start: Peter DePaolo, Rodger Ward, Paul Tracy and Ryan Hunter-Reay.

Felix Rosenqvist and Ryan Hunter-Reay will start on row three. Rosenqvist failed to get a top ten finish on an oval in his rookie year but he leads all rookies with four top five finishes, eight top ten finishes, five races led and this was his sixth Fast Six appearance in 2019. This is the tenth time Rosenqvist has started in the top ten this season. The only time he has started in the top ten and finished better than his starting position was when he went from sixth to second at Mid-Ohio and the only other time he didn't finish worse than his starting position was when he started and finished fourth in the first Belle Isle race. Hunter-Reay has finished in the top five of the penultimate race of the season for five consecutive years, including podium finishes in four of those five years. Prior to this stretch the only time Hunter-Reay had finished in the top five of the penultimate race was in 2004 when he was fifth at Surfers Paradise.

Alexander Rossi failed to advance to the Fast Six for the first time since the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, failing to advance by 0.0227 seconds and he will start seventh at Portland, a position better than where Rossi finished in last year's Portland race. This is only the second time Rossi has started seventh in his IndyCar career. The other time was at Pocono in 2016. Rossi has finished outside the top ten in the last two races. It is the first time Rossi has had consecutive results outside the top ten since he had finishes of 22nd, 13th and 11th at Texas, Road America and Toronto respectively in 2017. Rossi has not had a podium in the last four races. In the last 38 races, the only other time Rossi has not had a podium in a stretch of four races or more was five races from Portland and Sonoma last year through St. Petersburg, Austin and Barber this season.

James Hinchcliffe joins Rossi on row four. Hinchcliffe has finished in the top ten in the penultimate race of the season only once, when he finished third at Houston in 2013. Coincidentally, Hinchcliffe started eighth in that 2013 Houston race. Outside of that one result, his average finish in the other six penultimate races of season is 16.5 with his next best finish being 12th.

Substitute Conor Daly put the #7 Arrow Honda ninth on the grid. With Conor Daly taking over the #7 Arrow Honda for the absent Marcus Ericsson, this will be the tenth different number Daly has driven in his IndyCar career. Daly has run car #4, #5, #17, #18, #25, #41, #43, #59 and #88. According to the record book, this will be Daly's 49th career start. Car #7 has not won a race since Danica Patrick won at Motegi in 2008. Car #7 has won three times at Portland. Al Unser, Jr won the inaugural race, his first career victory, in 1984, Max Papis took victory here in 2001 and A.J. Allmendinger picked up his first career victory here in 2006.

Spencer Pigot rounds out the top ten. Pigot has been the top Ed Carpenter Racing finisher in seven of ten road and street course races this season but this was only the fifth time he has been the top ECR qualifier at a road course race. The only time Pigot has made the Fast Six in his IndyCar career was earlier this season at Barber, where he started sixth.

Zach Veach starts 11th and it was the first time Veach has made it to the second round of qualifying since the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Veach has finished on the lead lap of four of ten road/street course races this season with those races being Barber, the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and the two Belle Isle races. Veach's average finish in those four races is tenth. His average finish in the ten races where he has finished a lap down is 19.3. Sébastien Bourdais joins Veach on row six. This is the tenth time Bourdais has started 12th in his IndyCar career. Bourdais has five consecutive podium finishes at Portland. Portland is tied with Toronto and Long Beach for location of most podium finishes for Bourdais. If Bourdais were to win at Portland this weekend he would not only tie Michael Andretti and Al Unser, Jr. for most victories at the track but Portland would join Long Beach as the only tracks where Bourdais has won three times at.

Josef Newgarden missed out on the second round of qualifying by 0.0163 seconds. This is Newgarden's worse starting position since he started 13th at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. The only time Newgarden has won a race from outside the top ten was from 11th at Toronto in 2015. Newgarden has four fastest laps this season, taking the honor at St. Petersburg, the first Belle Isle race, Iowa and Gateway. The last driver to have fastest lap in consecutive races was Will Power at Iowa and Toronto last year. Newgarden has not had fastest lap on a natural-terrain road course since Road America in 2017. Regardless of what happens in the final two races, Newgarden will end the season with most laps led. Santino Ferrucci will start 14th after missing out on round two by 0.0986 seconds. Ferrucci will be making his second visit to Portland this weekend. Last year, he started 18th but had his race disrupted with a fuel pressure issue that knocked him off the lead lap. He would end up finishing 20th, four laps down.

The famous names Rahal and Andretti will start next to each other on row eight with Graham Rahal in 15th and Marco Andretti in 16th. Rahal has been the top finishing Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing driver in 11 of 15 races this season. The last three times Rahal has not been a top ten finisher, Takuma Sato has finished on the podium and Sato has won two of the three races Rahal has retired from. Andretti failed to complete a lap in last year's Portland race. Seven times in 232 starts has Andretti failed to complete a lap in a race. The only track where he has failed to complete at a lap in a race on multiple occasions is Mid-Ohio, where he completed zero laps in 2007 and 2014. Both Graham's father and Marco's father has won an IndyCar race on September 1st.

Takuma Sato could become the first Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing driver to win consecutive races since Kenny Bräck won at Motegi and Milwaukee in 2001 but Sato will have to do it from 17th position. The good news for Sato is he won last year at Portland from 20th on the grid; the furthest back a Portland winner has started. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing has not won at a track in consecutive years since Bryan Herta won at Laguna Seca in 1998 and 1999. Simon Pagenaud starts 18th, his second worst starting position of 2019. This is the eighth time in 11 road and street course races Pagenaud has started outside the top ten. Pagenaud enters Portland with consecutive top five finishes. He has not had three consecutive top five finishes since he has four consecutive top five finishes from Toronto to Gateway in 2017. Only twice has he had a top five finish in the penultimate race of a season. He had a fifth place finish at Surfers Paradise in 2007 and he was third at Baltimore in 2013.

Tony Kanaan and Max Chilton will start on row ten. Kanaan is coming off a third place finish at Portland, his best finish of the season and it was his first top five finish in over two years. The last time Kanaan had consecutive top five finishes was when he won the 2014 season finale at Fontana and finished third in the 2015 season opener at St. Petersburg. Chilton led ten laps in last year's Portland race after a caution came out before Chilton was able to make his final pit stop. Once Chilton made his final stop he came home in 18th position. That is the last time Chilton has led a lap in his IndyCar career. The only other time Chilton has led a lap on a road or street course was at Toronto in 2017 when he led one lap. He has led 65 laps in his career on ovals.

For the eighth time in 16 races Matheus Leist will start outside the top twenty and Leist will roll off from 21st position. Leist is 19th in the championship on 211 points. Leist is averaging 14.0667 points per race. Last season, Leist averaged 14.882 points from 17 races. He will have to score 42 points over the final two races to at least match his output from the 2018 season. Charlie Kimball makes his first start on a natural-terrain road course since last year's season finale at Sonoma and it will come from 22nd position. Kimball finished seventh last year at Portland from 25th starting position and he has finished in the top ten in the penultimate race of the season the last four years.

Ed Jones rounds out the starting grid in 23rd. Jones has averaged 17 points from 11 starts this season. Ed Carpenter averaged 32.2 points from his five starts in the #20 Chevrolet. Jones has scored more than 17 points in three races this season, the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, the Indianapolis 500 that paid double points and Toronto. At the Indianapolis 500, Jones finished 13th and scored 40 points, six points for qualifying fourth and 34 points for the 13th place finish. In a regular points race, 13th position pays 17 points.

When the green flag falls to start the Grand Prix of Portland, Newgarden's championship lead will decrease to 33 points over Rossi, Pagenaud will drop to 39 points behind Newgarden and Dixon will only be 48 points back heading into turn one.

NBC's coverage of the Grand Prix of Portland begins at 3:00 p.m. ET with green flag scheduled for 3:40 p.m. ET. The race is scheduled for 105 laps.