It is the Boxing Day tradition of Formula One predictions. The 2020 season will be the 71st in Formula One history and while the 2019 season saw Formula One have its 1,000th grand prix, the 2020 season is shaping up for possibly a lot of historic moments. One thing that we know will happen is the inaugural Vietnam Grand Prix from the streets of Hanoi. Formula One returns to the Netherlands for the first time since 1985. There is a lot to be excited about. Here are 12 things you should keep an eye on throughout next season.
1. Lewis Hamilton gets his 92nd grand prix victory before November
This means Lewis Hamilton will break Michael Schumacher's record for most grand prix victories by at least the United States Grand Prix.
Hamilton only needs eight victories. Winning eight out of the first 19 races seems about right for Hamilton. After all, he has averaged 10.333 victories a season in the last six seasons and he not won fewer than nine races in a season during this hybrid-era.
There are a few storybook places for Hamilton to break this record.
The first is Hamilton winning the first eight races, a historic start to a season, and getting it at Azerbaijan, the least sexy place Hamilton could do it.
The second is Hamilton doing it at Silverstone, which means winning eight of the first 12 races. That is a pretty high winning percentage but let's not rule it out. Mercedes has been the best team for the last six years and this is a lame duck season before the new regulations in 2021. Some teams might be focusing on 2021 and not be making up any ground in 2020. It could be done at Silverstone.
The third is Monza. Monza is the fairy tale place for Hamilton to do it. He would do it in front of the tifosi that loved Schumacher more than life itself for a decade. It would be a fitting place for such a record-breaking performance to occur.
The final one I will mention is the United States because Hamilton very well could lock up his seventh world championship in Austin. If Monza is the fairy tale place, the fairy tale of all fairy tales would be Hamilton tying Schumacher's record for world championships and breaking Schumacher's record for grand prix victories in the same race. That doesn't have to be in Austin. It would be if I want this prediction to be fulfilled but that could happen at any of the final four venues. That story in and of itself is chilling to think of.
The other place to note is Spa-Francorchamps. That is the location of Schumacher's first career victory and it is the location where Schumacher picked up his 52nd career victory, surpassing Alain Prost for the all-time lead, in 2001. Coincidentally, Prost tied Jackie Stewart's all-time record of 27 grand prix victories at Spa-Francorchamps in 1987.
Let's not be surprised if this date with history occurs in the Ardennes.
2. Ferrari will announce a driver change for the 2021 season before the Japanese Grand Prix
And I will put money down that it is Sebastian Vettel exiting the team.
I just don't see the leadership in place to turn this team around. Add to it Charles Leclerc is the number one driver in the team, Vettel is not going to be able to handle it, Ferrari is not able to handle it and Vettel will be out the door.
There will be a breaking point, probably sometime before the summer break. At that point Ferrari will have been relegated to the third best constructor, Mercedes will be on its way to another championship while Max Verstappen is carrying Red Bull and trying to give Hamilton all he has for the title. Leclerc will have one or two victories but a bunch of finishes of fourth and fifth to go along with it. Vettel will be regularly finishing off the podium and miserable.
I know the popular rumor is Vettel is going to retire. It is possible. I don't think he goes away though. Where would Vettel go though? Would Hamilton, possibly with seven championships, welcome Vettel in 2021 at Mercedes? If Hamilton goes to Ferrari then that opens a clear landing spot for Vettel but Verstappen's contract is up at the end of 2020 and Verstappen could go to Mercedes. Would Mercedes take Vettel as well? Unlikely.
If Hamilton goes to Ferrari in 2021 and Verstappen goes to Mercedes in 2021, would Vettel return to Red Bull? Formula One is not overflowing with drivers. Look at how long Kimi Räikkönen has been on the grid. Vettel isn't going anywhere. Someone will give him a shot.
3. One team will have a driver change midseason and it will be Haas F1
Haas F1 is a mess and it retained both its drivers from, both of which the team seems ready to dump and both of which probably wouldn't have minded being let go.
Haas showed pace at times. It made the final round of qualifying. It appeared to have a car that could compete for points regularly. It did not do that.
There will be a breaking point. Either Romain Grosjean will have another long string of results without points and leave the team will have no choice but to replace him or Kevin Magnussen will say something to get him fired. The team has Robert Kubica as a reserve driver. I bet the team would not mind putting in Kubica if it had to. Nico Hülkenberg is unemployed. If the team doesn't have faith in Kubica getting better results than the outgoing driver then Hülkenberg will get a call quite quickly I would imagine.
Outside of Kubica and Hülkenberg there isn't another driver Haas could throw in that would not be a complete surprise. Pietro Fittipaldi is not ready. Haas is not getting Marcus Ericsson out of his IndyCar deal with Chip Ganassi Racing. There isn't another Ferrari reserve driver it could bring it. The team is not going back to Esteban Gutiérrez. Haas still thinks Alexander Rossi is not good enough. Felipe Massa is not walking through that door.
You see what I mean? There are not that many options out there.
4. Esteban Ocon will be the top Renault driver but both drivers will be in the top ten of the championship
Ocon returns after a sabbatical at 23 years old and being Mercedes-Benz's reserve driver.
I think he returns hot and it will seem like he was never gone. Renault's reliability is the real question. Renault had six retirements in 2019 and there were those races where it didn't have the pace. I don't think Renault is going to move up the pecking order but it can maintain fifth in the constructors' championship.
Toro Rosso, which will become Alpha Tauri in 2020, will be its main threat with an improving Honda engine. Outside of that, I think Renault will be fine.
I could see Ocon and Daniel Ricciardo finishing ninth and tenth in the championship respectively. I do not think either will be pushing for sixth or seventh. Ricciardo will get his second year with the team and his first year had encouraging moments. He was the clear number one over Nico Hülkenberg. I don't think Ricciardo will lose a step but Ocon will come in hot after a year off. Ocon has a lot to prove and with intriguing openings for 2021 at Ferrari, Mercedes-Benz and Red Bull he cannot have poor results.
The top ten of the championship will be something along the lines of Hamilton, Verstappen, Bottas, Leclerc, Vettel, Albon, Sainz, Jr., Norris, Ocon and Ricciardo with Gasly and Räikkönen the first on the outside.
5. Alexander Albon gets his first career victory but Max Verstappen will have more than double Albon's number of victories
Albon switched over to Red Bull before the Belgian Grand Prix and it took him no time to settle in. At Red Bull, Albon scored points every race but one, Brazil, when he was spun out from third thanks to Lewis Hamilton.
Red Bull is getting better. Honda is getting better. The 2020 season is crucial to both. I think Red Bull will push Ferrari for second in the constructors' championship and I think there will be at least one race where Albon is leading the way or strategy works out to Albon being Red Bull's best shot and he will pull it out.
With that said, I think Albon wins one race or two, not more than that. I think Verstappen could win four or five races. We already saw Verstappen win three races in 2019. I think he will be primed for more. It will all come down to how Red Bull gets out of the gate. If Red Bull starts slow I think Mercedes will again take control of the world championship and Red Bull will get three or four victories spread out throughout the season. However, if Red Bull starts strong, gets a victory in the first three or four races, clearly surpasses Ferrari as the second best team I think Verstappen could provide a challenge to Hamilton for the title.
I am not saying Verstappen could take it to the finale but I think Verstappen could be second in the championship for majority of the year and Hamilton still locks it up in Mexico, the United States or Brazil.
6. Lando Norris breaks into the top ten of the championship
Though he was not the best rookie on paper in 2019, Norris was stellar and he was one position short of making the top ten of the championship in his rookie year. I think Norris will improve greatly in 2020. He really didn't make any mistakes in 2019, at least nothing that has you concerned for his sophomore season.
Carlos Sainz, Jr. was sixth in the championship. McLaren is heading in the right direction. I think Norris does not have the same problems he had in 2019 and he will score more points. I think McLaren will have a few races where it is in the top six and Norris could be that guy finishing fifth or sixth. Both McLarens are going to be strong and Norris is going to continue to be McLaren's shining light.
7. No British manufacture finishes on the podium for the Dutch Grand Prix
There have been 30 Dutch Grand Prix that have counted toward the Formula One World Drivers' Championship. Of those 30 races, only four times has a British manufacture not had a podium finisher.
The first time was 1952 when the Ferraris of Alberto Ascari, Nino Farina and Luigi Villoresi went 1-2-3. The following race in 1953 had Ascari and Farina finish 1-2 for Ferrari with a Maserati split between Felice Bonetto and José Froilán González in third. There was no Dutch Grand Prix in 1954 but, in 1955, Juan Manuel Fangio took victory for Mercedes ahead of his teammate Sterling Moss with the Maserati of Luigi Musso in third.
The Dutch Grand Prix was held 27 times over the next 28 seasons (1972 being the one exception) and in 26 of those races a British manufacture had at least one podium finisher. British manufactures won 17 of those 27 races. The only one of those races without a British car on the podium was in 1977 when Niki Lauda won for Ferrari ahead of the Ligier of Jacques Laffite in second and the Wolf of Jody Scheckter in third.
It is tough to see a British manufacture put a car on the podium at Zandvoort in 2020. For starters, Briton's hope rests in McLaren, Racing Point and Williams. We can cross off Racing Point and Williams. That is not happening. McLaren could breakthrough, we saw Carlos Sainz, Jr. get on the podium in Brazil, but that required a lot of help.
Let's put it this way: Pencil in at least one Mercedes on the podium, Max Verstappen is going to have try to have the greatest race of his career at home and Ferrari will still put two cars into the top five. How are any of the British cars going to make it through that contingent? It isn't going to happen unless it is really wet or a well-timed safety car comes out and cycles a McLaren into the top three. Passing is going to be difficult.
8. This will be Kimi Räikkönen's final season in Formula One
Räikkönen will likely surpass Rubens Barrichello's record for most entries and most starts in 2020. The Finn is 40 years old. I think he will have enough of Formula One after this year.
He is not going to keep going to extend his entries and starts record. He can only take so much from a middle team. Ferrari is one thing. He could at least get podium finishes and could pull out a race victory. Alfa Romeo isn't going to put him on the podium. He is fighting for seventh at best in most races.
Halfway through 2020, Räikkönen will realize it is time for someone else to fight for seventh. Everyone seems to think Mick Schumacher is destined for a Formula One ride in 2021. Let's see how the kid does in Formula Two in 2020. Ferrari academy drivers Robert Shwartzman and Marcus Armstrong are moving up to Formula Two in 2020 after the two drivers finished first and second respectively in the Formula Three championship this past season. There are a bunch of young Ferrari prospects knocking on Formula One's door. One will end up in an Alfa Romeo for his first taste of Formula One.
It is time for Räikkönen to say goodbye and let a young driver get his opportunity.
9. Racing Point does not finish seventh in the World Constructors' Championship
Racing Point has ended up seventh in the World Constructors' Championship the last two years. What are the odds it happens a third time?
That means Racing Point is either going to be moving up or falling back. It was 12 points off Toro Rosso for sixth and 16 points ahead of Alfa Romeo. It is hard to say Racing Point will be better in 2020. Sergio Pérez carries the weight, and he deserves a lot of praise for getting tenth in the World Drivers' Championship in 2019, but he can only do so much. I don't see Lance Stroll bringing his game to another level.
Alfa Romeo definitely could challenge for seventh. If Haas F1 can stop making mistakes, retain the qualifying pace it showed in 2019 and turn that qualifying pace into race results then maybe Haas can vault up the championship order. Either way, Racing Point is either going to over-perform or take a step back.
10. Pierre Gasly has at least two drivers between him and Daniil Kvyat in the World Drivers' Championship
The 2019 championship comparison between these two is not quite accurate since Gasly spent the first two-thirds of the year with Red Bull before switching to Toro Rosso.
However, in the nine races they spent together as teammates Kvyat scored ten points and Gasly scored 32 points. Now, 18 of those points came from Gasly's runner-up finish at Interlagos, a fortunate result indeed, but if you throw that result out it was still 14 to 10 advantage Gasly.
Let's also remember Kvyat's best race was third in a fortunate race in Germany. If you take those 15 points away he would be left with 22 points over 21 races. If you extrapolate Gasly's 14 points from eight races he would be on pace for 38.5 points.
Gasly grasped the Toro Rosso quickly and with a Honda engine that appears to be improving I think he could end up scoring close to 40 points with Kvyat somewhere between 20-25 points.
I am not saying either driver will be wonderful but I think Gasly could end up 12th in the championship and Kvyat could be 15th or worse.
11. Williams at least triples its World Constructors' Championship points total
Williams was bad in 2019, there is no way around that, but the one thing Williams had going for itself in 2019 was reliability. The team did not have a retirement until Singapore and had four retirements all season.
Haas had nine retirements, McLaren had seven retirements, Renault had six retirements and two disqualifications, Racing Point, Toro Rosso and Ferrari each had four retirements. Williams has the reliability part down, now it just has to find the speed.
This grid will be tough but George Russell was smart for all of 2019. Nicholas Latifi is coming in off a promising Formula Two season. Three points is a low total, very low. It will be tough for Williams but I think it can do it. I think it can have three races where cars end up in the points. It doesn't sound like much but it is asking quite a lot.
12. Every driver that wins the race on the road will be the official winner of every grand prix
That means we are not going to have a repeat of Canada 2019. We are not going to have Sebastian Vettel earning himself a five-second penalty for driving off track and then pinching Lewis Hamilton to the barrier. We are not going to have a technical infringement lead to a victor being disqualified; it has been a while since we have seen that happen. All 22 drivers that take the checkered flag first will be in the record book at the end of the season as the race winner.
This is our second set of predictions complete. Take a look at the NASCAR predictions. Tomorrow we will take a gander at a dozen different series.
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