1. Kyle Busch Will Not Have a Winless Drought Greater Than 12 Races
Though Kyle Busch did win the 2019 championship, the most notable thing about his season was the 21 races he did not win between Pocono in June and the Homestead finale in November. It was one of Busch's longest droughts in his Cup Series career.
Things seem slightly different now that Busch broke through and won his second championship. The title comes in a period where a lot of drivers were sitting on one title and Jimmie Johnson was the only driver with multiple. Busch's second title lifts above his other contemporaries and even ahead of Johnson, who has not won since Dover in May 2017 and finished 18th in the championship in 2019.
I feel like things have clicked for Busch. He has reached another level. I do not think he is going to win five consecutive championships but I think the 2020 season will be one where we see him win on a more consistent basis.
There were plenty of races during that 21-race drought where Busch had a good shout at victory. He lost in a photo finish to his brother Kurt at Kentucky. He was leading late at Darlington before he lost the race off pit lane to Erik Jones and Jones had the benefit of clean air the rest of the night. He led the most laps at Richmond before Martin Truex, Jr. took the lead. He very well could have won at Phoenix, the race before Homestead.
All these races are not going to go against Busch in 2020. He will be on the right side of the photo finish. He will get the benefit of clean air on a final restart. He will have the car that is getting better over a long run. He is going to win one of the first 12 races and then I expect him to win another race within the next eight-ten races for the rest of the season.
Things seem slightly different now that Busch broke through and won his second championship. The title comes in a period where a lot of drivers were sitting on one title and Jimmie Johnson was the only driver with multiple. Busch's second title lifts above his other contemporaries and even ahead of Johnson, who has not won since Dover in May 2017 and finished 18th in the championship in 2019.
I feel like things have clicked for Busch. He has reached another level. I do not think he is going to win five consecutive championships but I think the 2020 season will be one where we see him win on a more consistent basis.
There were plenty of races during that 21-race drought where Busch had a good shout at victory. He lost in a photo finish to his brother Kurt at Kentucky. He was leading late at Darlington before he lost the race off pit lane to Erik Jones and Jones had the benefit of clean air the rest of the night. He led the most laps at Richmond before Martin Truex, Jr. took the lead. He very well could have won at Phoenix, the race before Homestead.
All these races are not going to go against Busch in 2020. He will be on the right side of the photo finish. He will get the benefit of clean air on a final restart. He will have the car that is getting better over a long run. He is going to win one of the first 12 races and then I expect him to win another race within the next eight-ten races for the rest of the season.
2. There Will Be at Least Two Different Drivers in the Championship 4
Busch, Martin Truex, Jr. and Kevin Harvick have made the Championship 4 the last two seasons. Joey Logano made it in 2018 and Denny Hamlin made it in 2019. Two of Busch, Truex, Jr. and Harvick are not going to make it in 2020.
Life is a numbers game. What is the probability that the same every drivers make the final four for three consecutive years? How many times have the same three teams made the conference championship games in the NFL playoffs in three consecutive years or the same three teams made the league championship series in the MLB postseason in three consecutive seasons? The answers are once for football, 1974-76 with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Oakland Raiders and Los Angeles Rams, and once for baseball, 1976-78 with the New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals and Philadelphia Phillies.
It is possible but not likely. All three could make it back but all things must come to an end. Truex will have a new crew chief in 2020. Busch is coming off a championship and has made the final four in five consecutive seasons. Harvick has made the final four in three consecutive seasons and has made it five of six seasons. Eventually, this stretch is going to end for both Busch and Harvick and Truex is going to have one year where is excellent but not tremendous.
Logano, Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Kurt Busch, William Byron, Alex Bowman, heck Johnson are all names that could conceivably make the final four and just two of these nine drivers need to do it.
Hamlin might be the one driver everyone pencils in to not make it back. Then who will make it? Could Penske put multiple drivers into the final four? Could Hendrick make a comeback? Could an unexpected driver make a breakthrough?
Life is a numbers game. What is the probability that the same every drivers make the final four for three consecutive years? How many times have the same three teams made the conference championship games in the NFL playoffs in three consecutive years or the same three teams made the league championship series in the MLB postseason in three consecutive seasons? The answers are once for football, 1974-76 with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Oakland Raiders and Los Angeles Rams, and once for baseball, 1976-78 with the New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals and Philadelphia Phillies.
It is possible but not likely. All three could make it back but all things must come to an end. Truex will have a new crew chief in 2020. Busch is coming off a championship and has made the final four in five consecutive seasons. Harvick has made the final four in three consecutive seasons and has made it five of six seasons. Eventually, this stretch is going to end for both Busch and Harvick and Truex is going to have one year where is excellent but not tremendous.
Logano, Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Kurt Busch, William Byron, Alex Bowman, heck Johnson are all names that could conceivably make the final four and just two of these nine drivers need to do it.
Hamlin might be the one driver everyone pencils in to not make it back. Then who will make it? Could Penske put multiple drivers into the final four? Could Hendrick make a comeback? Could an unexpected driver make a breakthrough?
3. Jimmie Johnson is Not the Worst Finishing Hendrick Motorsports Driver in the Championship
I wrote this prediction before Johnson announced 2020 would be his final season and I will stand by it.
It cannot get worse than it was for Johnson in 2019. He was 18th in the championship. He has gone two full seasons and then some since his most recent victory. All three other Hendrick Motorsports drivers made the playoff. Something has to turn around for Johnson. He does not need to be great. He just needs to be ninth and have Bowman be 12th. Or Johnson needs to make the playoffs and have one of Bowman or William Byron to miss out.
I think Johnson will improve from 2019. I want to say he will win a race but outside of the first Texas race there wasn't a race in 2019 where he was close. I think he will get one victory for old time's sake but overall I think he is looking at five to seven top five finishes at most, 15 to 18 top ten finishes at most and if he makes the playoffs maybe he can sneak into the round of eight but his final championship finish will be somewhere between seventh and 14th.
We have seen some dismal exits in NASCAR in recent seasons. Tony Stewart was a shadow of himself. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. could not capture any magic. While Jeff Gordon put together one final hoo-ray, history is not pointing to Johnson doing the same but wouldn't it make sense if he did? He is a seven-time champion. What is one more championship run?
A championship run isn't what necessarily will fulfill this prediction. Johnson just has to be 80% of what he was at his very best.
It cannot get worse than it was for Johnson in 2019. He was 18th in the championship. He has gone two full seasons and then some since his most recent victory. All three other Hendrick Motorsports drivers made the playoff. Something has to turn around for Johnson. He does not need to be great. He just needs to be ninth and have Bowman be 12th. Or Johnson needs to make the playoffs and have one of Bowman or William Byron to miss out.
I think Johnson will improve from 2019. I want to say he will win a race but outside of the first Texas race there wasn't a race in 2019 where he was close. I think he will get one victory for old time's sake but overall I think he is looking at five to seven top five finishes at most, 15 to 18 top ten finishes at most and if he makes the playoffs maybe he can sneak into the round of eight but his final championship finish will be somewhere between seventh and 14th.
We have seen some dismal exits in NASCAR in recent seasons. Tony Stewart was a shadow of himself. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. could not capture any magic. While Jeff Gordon put together one final hoo-ray, history is not pointing to Johnson doing the same but wouldn't it make sense if he did? He is a seven-time champion. What is one more championship run?
A championship run isn't what necessarily will fulfill this prediction. Johnson just has to be 80% of what he was at his very best.
4. Christopher Bell Will Finish Ahead of Matt DiBenedetto in the Championship
Bell moves up to the Cup Series with Leavine Family Racing while DiBenedetto moves to Wood Brothers Racing from Leavine Family Racing.
DiBenedetto had better results in the second-half of the 2019 season with top five finishes at Sonoma, Loudon and a runner-up finish in Bristol. He had seven top-ten finishes in 2019, almost double his career total entering the season. He did get a career-best championship finish of 22nd.
However, while Wood Brothers Racing is back to being a full-time team and is a popular team with fans, DiBenedetto may be making a step back. While Ryan Blaney did win a race with the team and finished ninth in the championship, the team's three other seasons since returning to full-time competition in 2016 had championship finishes of 20th, 19th and 19th.
Leavine Family Racing will be in its second year with Toyota but Bell has been Toyota's golden child for a handful of years now and he is a loanee from Joe Gibbs Racing. I think that equipment will get better and I think Bell is ready for the Cup Series. A victory for Bell pretty much guarantees him a top-16 championship finish.
Will DiBenedetto be able to do enough to make the playoffs in that case? While DiBenedetto almost won a race and actually finished behind Paul Menard in the championship, Menard had only four top ten finishes all season. The Wood Brothers' only top five finish in the last two years was at Michigan in June 2018.
I feel like Bell is heading to a team on the ascension while DiBenedetto is jumping on one gliding back to Earth.
DiBenedetto had better results in the second-half of the 2019 season with top five finishes at Sonoma, Loudon and a runner-up finish in Bristol. He had seven top-ten finishes in 2019, almost double his career total entering the season. He did get a career-best championship finish of 22nd.
However, while Wood Brothers Racing is back to being a full-time team and is a popular team with fans, DiBenedetto may be making a step back. While Ryan Blaney did win a race with the team and finished ninth in the championship, the team's three other seasons since returning to full-time competition in 2016 had championship finishes of 20th, 19th and 19th.
Leavine Family Racing will be in its second year with Toyota but Bell has been Toyota's golden child for a handful of years now and he is a loanee from Joe Gibbs Racing. I think that equipment will get better and I think Bell is ready for the Cup Series. A victory for Bell pretty much guarantees him a top-16 championship finish.
Will DiBenedetto be able to do enough to make the playoffs in that case? While DiBenedetto almost won a race and actually finished behind Paul Menard in the championship, Menard had only four top ten finishes all season. The Wood Brothers' only top five finish in the last two years was at Michigan in June 2018.
I feel like Bell is heading to a team on the ascension while DiBenedetto is jumping on one gliding back to Earth.
5. At Least Three Rookies Finish Better than 25th in the Championship
This piggybacks off the Bell prediction. In 2019, Daniel Hemric was Rookie of the Year in 25th. The next rookie was Ryan Preece in 26th and Matt Tifft was 31st.
The 2020 rookie class will include Bell, the reigning two-time Grand National Series champion Tyler Reddick, Cole Custer, John Hunter Nemechek, Brennan Poole and Joey Gase.
Bell and Custer are entering cars that were in the top 25 and Reddick is going into a car that was 25th. I already said I think Bell will do better than DiBenedetto did, Reddick should do noticeably better than Hemric and I think Custer will at least be around where Daniel Suárez was.
I think Nemechek could do well for the equipment he will be in. In the three races he ran with Front Row Motorsports in 2019 he was the top finisher of the three-car effort each time and that was against veterans Michael McDowell and David Ragan. The other two rookies will be field fillers.
The 2020 rookie class will include Bell, the reigning two-time Grand National Series champion Tyler Reddick, Cole Custer, John Hunter Nemechek, Brennan Poole and Joey Gase.
Bell and Custer are entering cars that were in the top 25 and Reddick is going into a car that was 25th. I already said I think Bell will do better than DiBenedetto did, Reddick should do noticeably better than Hemric and I think Custer will at least be around where Daniel Suárez was.
I think Nemechek could do well for the equipment he will be in. In the three races he ran with Front Row Motorsports in 2019 he was the top finisher of the three-car effort each time and that was against veterans Michael McDowell and David Ragan. The other two rookies will be field fillers.
6. Chris Buescher Will Set a Personal Best for Laps Led in a Season
Buescher moves over the Roush Fenway Racing and he is coming off his best season in laps led in 2019 where he led... 13 laps.
In Buescher's four full seasons he has led 12 laps, five laps, one lap and 13 laps.
Roush Fenway Racing has not been going through glorious times either in recent years. The team has two victories in the last five seasons. The team has only 24 top five finishes in the last five seasons. The team has only two pole positions in the last five seasons.
However, 13 laps is a low total. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. led 133 and 109 laps in his final two seasons with the team. Ryan Newman led 19 laps last year in his first year with the team. I am not saying Buescher is going to be great or win a race. He just needs to be fortunate at a superspeedway or stretch his fuel at a mile-and-a-half track or just led one or two laps through pit cycle in a little under half the races or stay out under caution to try and get stage points and end up as the leader and have that caution extended a lap or two and pick up five easy laps led without the racing going green.
I think Buescher will do better in the #17 Ford than Stenhouse, Jr. did in 2019 but he just needs to lead about 20 laps. Heck, Buescher only needs to lead 31 laps to double his career total. That doesn't seem that crazy either.
In Buescher's four full seasons he has led 12 laps, five laps, one lap and 13 laps.
Roush Fenway Racing has not been going through glorious times either in recent years. The team has two victories in the last five seasons. The team has only 24 top five finishes in the last five seasons. The team has only two pole positions in the last five seasons.
However, 13 laps is a low total. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. led 133 and 109 laps in his final two seasons with the team. Ryan Newman led 19 laps last year in his first year with the team. I am not saying Buescher is going to be great or win a race. He just needs to be fortunate at a superspeedway or stretch his fuel at a mile-and-a-half track or just led one or two laps through pit cycle in a little under half the races or stay out under caution to try and get stage points and end up as the leader and have that caution extended a lap or two and pick up five easy laps led without the racing going green.
I think Buescher will do better in the #17 Ford than Stenhouse, Jr. did in 2019 but he just needs to lead about 20 laps. Heck, Buescher only needs to lead 31 laps to double his career total. That doesn't seem that crazy either.
7. Quin Houff Completes Less Than 12,000 Miles
Houff is replacing Landon Cassill in the #00 StarCom Racing Chevrolet.
Cassill did what he could with an under-funded team. He had four lead lap finishes but was running at the finish of 32 races. He completed 12,461.83 miles, 91.8% of the laps run in 2019.
Houff ran 17 races in 2019, had zero lead lap finishes but was running at the finish of 14 races. However, Houff only completed 86.8% of the laps run in his 17 races. If you extrapolate that over 36 races, he will only run about 11,958.5 miles.
Now, Houff will be in a better car than he was in 2019 but I am still leaving the door open that he does not complete the full season.
Cassill did what he could with an under-funded team. He had four lead lap finishes but was running at the finish of 32 races. He completed 12,461.83 miles, 91.8% of the laps run in 2019.
Houff ran 17 races in 2019, had zero lead lap finishes but was running at the finish of 14 races. However, Houff only completed 86.8% of the laps run in his 17 races. If you extrapolate that over 36 races, he will only run about 11,958.5 miles.
Now, Houff will be in a better car than he was in 2019 but I am still leaving the door open that he does not complete the full season.
8. At Least Three Championship-Ineligible Drivers win a Grand National Series Race
As much as people complain about too many Cup drivers winning races in the second series only two championship-ineligible drivers won a Grand National Series race in 2019, Kyle Busch and Ross Chastain.
I think that will change. We can pencil in Kyle Busch but one of the Penske drivers is bound to win in a one-off, whether it be Blaney, Logano or Keselowski. Add to that we may see Bell, Custer and Reddick run more one-offs and they will not be eligible for the championship.
Two was a low-number, it felt historically low considering what this series has been like in the last 15 years. I think that number goes up, not by a massive amount but just enough.
I think that will change. We can pencil in Kyle Busch but one of the Penske drivers is bound to win in a one-off, whether it be Blaney, Logano or Keselowski. Add to that we may see Bell, Custer and Reddick run more one-offs and they will not be eligible for the championship.
Two was a low-number, it felt historically low considering what this series has been like in the last 15 years. I think that number goes up, not by a massive amount but just enough.
9. JR Motorsports at Least Doubles Its Number of Victories While Joe Gibbs Racing and Richard Childress Racing Each Has at Least a 25% Decrease in Victories
JR Motorsports won two races in 2019, the season opener at Daytona with Michael Annett and the penultimate race at Phoenix with Justin Allgaier. It was a rough season for that bunch.
Meanwhile, Joe Gibbs Racing tallied 13 victories between Christopher Bell (8), Kyle Busch (4) and Brandon Jones, and Richard Childress Racing had six victories, all at the hands of Tyler Reddick.
Bell and Reddick are gone. Childress hasn't even committed to running a full-time car yet but will at least run Myatt Snider, Anthony Alfredo and Austin Dillon in a part-time car. Joe Gibbs Racing will have Jones return with Riley Herbst and Harrison Burton entering the team, two drivers with a combined zero Truck Series victories.
Busch is going to win some races but he will now only have five chances to run in this series. He could go five-for-five, we have seen him do it before, but if Busch leads the team in victories than this will not be a great year for the Gibbs bunch. The other Gibbs drivers are bound to win some races. The cars are just going to be too good not to have one or two or all three pick up at least one victory but will Gibbs really win ten races in 2020?
Will Childress really win five races with two drivers that have combined for zero Truck victories and Dillon?
Annett, Allgaier and Noah Gragson all return for JR Motorsports. Allgaier only had one victory in 2019. I think that will change and he could win four on his own. We have seen him do it before, only once but he has still won at least four races in a season. Gragson has to win and with how depleted the grid will be in this series he should pull one or two races out. Daniel Hemric will run 21 races for the team with Jeb Burton running 11 and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. running the Homestead race. I know Hemric and Burton have never won in this series but it feels like it will be time for Hemric to get a breakthrough. Burton might even have a special day in the sun. Even Earnhardt, Jr. could pull off a stunner.
Meanwhile, Joe Gibbs Racing tallied 13 victories between Christopher Bell (8), Kyle Busch (4) and Brandon Jones, and Richard Childress Racing had six victories, all at the hands of Tyler Reddick.
Bell and Reddick are gone. Childress hasn't even committed to running a full-time car yet but will at least run Myatt Snider, Anthony Alfredo and Austin Dillon in a part-time car. Joe Gibbs Racing will have Jones return with Riley Herbst and Harrison Burton entering the team, two drivers with a combined zero Truck Series victories.
Busch is going to win some races but he will now only have five chances to run in this series. He could go five-for-five, we have seen him do it before, but if Busch leads the team in victories than this will not be a great year for the Gibbs bunch. The other Gibbs drivers are bound to win some races. The cars are just going to be too good not to have one or two or all three pick up at least one victory but will Gibbs really win ten races in 2020?
Will Childress really win five races with two drivers that have combined for zero Truck victories and Dillon?
Annett, Allgaier and Noah Gragson all return for JR Motorsports. Allgaier only had one victory in 2019. I think that will change and he could win four on his own. We have seen him do it before, only once but he has still won at least four races in a season. Gragson has to win and with how depleted the grid will be in this series he should pull one or two races out. Daniel Hemric will run 21 races for the team with Jeb Burton running 11 and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. running the Homestead race. I know Hemric and Burton have never won in this series but it feels like it will be time for Hemric to get a breakthrough. Burton might even have a special day in the sun. Even Earnhardt, Jr. could pull off a stunner.
10. The Truck Series Regular Season Champion Has at Least One Victory
Not only did the Truck champion not have a victory in 2019 but the 2019 regular season champion did not have a victory.
Grant Enfinger took the regular season title without a victory and then was bounced in round one when he lost an engine in Las Vegas.
That is not going to happen twice. Either Brett Moffitt is going to win four races and win the regular season championship or Matt Crafton wins once or twice and wins the regular season championship or Christian Eckes gets three victories and is the best over the regular season.
It is not going to happen twice.
Grant Enfinger took the regular season title without a victory and then was bounced in round one when he lost an engine in Las Vegas.
That is not going to happen twice. Either Brett Moffitt is going to win four races and win the regular season championship or Matt Crafton wins once or twice and wins the regular season championship or Christian Eckes gets three victories and is the best over the regular season.
It is not going to happen twice.
11. At Least Four Drivers That Started a Truck Race But Did Not Win in 2019 Gets a Victory in 2020
This is pretty straightforward:
Matt Crafton is bound to win one race.
Grant Enfinger is bound to win a race.
Sheldon Creed is bound to win a race.
Christain Eckes is bound to win a race.
Chandler Smith could win a race.
Raphaël Lassard could win a race.
Sam Meyer could win a race.
Ty Majeski could win a race.
If Ben Rhodes returns he could win a race.
Matt Crafton is bound to win one race.
Grant Enfinger is bound to win a race.
Sheldon Creed is bound to win a race.
Christain Eckes is bound to win a race.
Chandler Smith could win a race.
Raphaël Lassard could win a race.
Sam Meyer could win a race.
Ty Majeski could win a race.
If Ben Rhodes returns he could win a race.
If Chase Briscoe runs Eldora he could win that race.
If Alex Tagliani runs Mosport he could win that race.
If Austin Dillon, Bubba Wallace and/or John Hunter Nemechek return for a one-off they could all win a race.
I just listed 14 drivers, all who ran Trucks in 2019 and did not win. At least half of those drivers will have a realistic shot of a Truck race victory in 2020. At least four will get that race victory.
If Alex Tagliani runs Mosport he could win that race.
If Austin Dillon, Bubba Wallace and/or John Hunter Nemechek return for a one-off they could all win a race.
I just listed 14 drivers, all who ran Trucks in 2019 and did not win. At least half of those drivers will have a realistic shot of a Truck race victory in 2020. At least four will get that race victory.
12. There Will Be Fewer Than Two Different Tracks on the 2021 Cup Schedule
We are supposedly getting the 2021 schedule before April Fool's Day in 2020. This is the long-awaited 2021 schedule where NASCAR is going to shake it up. Guess what? NASCAR won't.
Where is NASCAR going to go?
Nashville? The track that needs a renovation and is not getting the funded necessary from the city to make it happen?
Where is NASCAR going to go?
Nashville? The track that needs a renovation and is not getting the funded necessary from the city to make it happen?
Rockingham? The track everyone brings up but has been mostly abandoned for the last 15 years?
North Wilkesboro? The track that is crumbling and only morons think could host a race tomorrow after getting next to no attention for the last 23 years?
Where is NASCAR going to go?
Do you see Austin being added to the schedule? Or Gateway? Or Road America? Or Mid-Ohio? Or Mosport? Or Iowa?
Where is NASCAR serious about bringing the Cup Series that currently does not have a race?
It appears all eggs are in the Nashville basket and I do not think that will be ready for 2021. There are a handful of racetracks that host only Grand National Series and Truck races that you would think would be suitable for a Cup race that NASCAR is somewhat ignoring despite talking about shaking up the schedule.
A lot of people have been calling for a Cup race in Iowa for the last decade and even that has no wind in its sail. Gateway is ready for a Cup race. Look at the crowd it gets for IndyCar. A NASCAR Cup race would fill the place.
People are talking about a street race but what municipality is going to decide in the next four months it is going to cough up the money for a NASCAR weekend in 2021?
I will leave room for one new track, even that seems like a stretch but it is not impossible. Outside of that, I think this shakeup will be more pieces moving around the chessboard, another doubleheader added to the schedule and it being change but everything being the same.
It is going to leave a lot of people disappointed.
One set of predictions are done, four more are to go but first we will have the Motorsports Christmas list for Monday. Predictions will return on Boxing Day.
