Thursday, October 28, 2021

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing's 2021 Season

We are into the second half of the IndyCar Wrap-Ups and we have reached Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. For the seventh consecutive season, the team had a top ten championship finisher, but for the first time since 2014 the team did not win a race. The team had more top five finishes than 2020 but the team did not make one trip to the top step of the podium. One other note from RLLR's 2021 season is it provided a few auditions to promising drivers as the team will expand in the very near-future.

For another season, Graham Rahal was the best without being the best

Graham Rahal
It was another respectable season for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. The team provided quick race cars and both drivers were in the top half of the championship with Rahal leading the way. However, Rahal's great days continue to fall short of glory and, while he was ahead of three Penske drivers and three Andretti Autosport drivers in the championship, just one thing was missing from Rahal's season, preventing it from being an undisputed success.

What objectively was his best race?
Rahal led 13 laps on his way to finishing third in the second Texas race. He was one of the few cars that could complete a pass into a corner and had great drive off turn four to make attempts into turn one. A few moves paid off nicely for him. However, fuel concerns led him to back off and Rahal was jumped in the pit cycle with Patricio O'Ward taking the lead and Scott Dixon moving up to second. 

What subjectively was his best race?
There are two options. One crosses the divide of being his subjective best race and objectively his worst race. We will cover that in a moment, but let's look at a day that ended with a respectable result, Portland. 

Rahal stretched his fuel out and led 36 laps on a two-stop strategy. The only problem was he was not able to keep his track position through the pit cycle and dropped to tenth. 
 
What objectively was his worst race?
Rahal lost his left rear tire after a pit stop on lap 119 of the Indianapolis 500. With an unsecured wheel nut, Rahal spun out of the access lane and into the barrier on the outside of turn two. At the time, Rahal was working his forward and looked to be a threat in the closing laps. He had led eight laps before the accident. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
Indianapolis was crushing. It looked like the race was playing out for Rahal to be in the top five at the end. He could have been leading the pack in the final laps. Instead, his race ended just shy of 300 miles due to something completely out of his hands. 

I think Portland fits the criteria as well because it was another race where it looked like Rahal was finally going to get a victory only for something else to take it from Rahal. He was one of the best cars that day and it all went wrong. While some drivers pull off the two-stop strategy and hold off drivers from behind, Rahal kept losing spots in the final pit cycle. The cautions ended up not falling his way and he could maintain the pace to remain in front.

Another race that deserves a mention is St. Petersburg, because Rahal was going to finish in the top five before he and Alexander Rossi got together after Rossi had a flat tire and damaged suspension. With Rahal caught on Rossi's outside in turn five, Rahal was blocked out and he had to back his car up to continue forward. It cost him many positions and he had to settle for 15th.
 
Graham Rahal's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 7th (389 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 7
Top Tens: 11
Laps Led: 65
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 6 
Average Start: 12.929
Average Finish: 9.9375

Takuma Sato had a good year, but regressed from recent form

Takuma Sato
After consecutive seasons with top ten championship finishes, Sato was back for his fourth consecutive season with RLLR. For most of 2021, Sato was a knowledgable veteran, bringing the car home in one piece and frequently finishing in the top ten. However, we did not see Sato spark at the top of the order and be in contention for a race victory as we were accustomed to seeing over the last few years.

What objectively was his best race?
Sato was fourth in the first Belle Isle race, which was an overachieving result for Sato. The way the cautions fell played into his favor more than most.  

What subjectively was his best race?
It is hard to say because Sato did not have any great performances. There were many races where you looked up in the closing laps and Sato was somehow in eighth after not being mentioned once over the first 95% of the race. The first Belle Isle race was a good result, considering he started 16th, but he also went from 16th to sixth at Gateway and 15th to sixth at St. Petersburg.

What objectively was his worst race?
Laguna Seca. A spin in the Corkscrew, contact with Scott Dixon and the subsequent damage from that incident relegated him to 27th, dead last. Laguna Seca was one of his better races as well. He went off strategy early and had charged into the top ten before that spin. He was on a similar strategy as Josef Newgarden, who finished seventh, and Sato was two positions ahead of Newgarden at the time of his spin. What could have been?

What subjectively was his worst race?
I think it is Laguna Seca again because he went from a possible top ten to dead last and one of the worst finishes in his IndyCar career. Nashville deserves a mention because he was 25th after being taken out in the infamous turn 11 incident when Simon Pagenaud and Will Power got together. It wasn't going to be a great day for Sato. He struggled all weekend and qualified 24th.
 
Takuma Sato's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 11th (324 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 1
Top Tens: 8
Laps Led: 21
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 18.571
Average Finish: 12.25

Santino Ferrucci ran more IndyCar races than expected in 2021

Santino Ferrucci
After announcing he was turning his attention to NASCAR in 2021, Ferrucci added the Indianapolis 500 to his schedule with RLLR. A successful weekend and increased funding from Midwestern supermarket chain HyVee saw Ferrucci run more IndyCar races than expected. 

What objectively was his best race?
Ferrucci was sixth in two races, first in the Indianapolis 500 and then in the first Belle Isle race.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is hard to ignore a sixth in the Indianapolis 500. He was slightly off strategy with his final stop coming on lap 180. This strategy allowed him to drive hard on the final two stints and gained him many spots late when he might have finished outside the top ten. Ferrucci also scored fastest lap in the race.
 
The second Belle Isle race deserves a mention because he advanced to the second round of qualifying, clobbered the wall on his final qualifying lap, had to start 12th but he did it in a backup car that the team thrashed together in time for the start of the race. The team got the job done and Ferrucci kept the car on the fringe of the top ten on his way to finishing tenth.

What objectively was his worst race?
It was a woeful 11th in the Nashville race. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
Nashville was such a mess I don't think we can take any driver's position seriously from that race. Ferrucci did nothing wrong and avoiding contact and accidents can be a good day, but I don't think Ferrucci was 11th that day. He probably finished about six to eight spots better than he actually was in that race. Overall, not a bad five-race run for Ferrucci.
 
Santino Ferrucci's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 24th (146 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 4
Laps Led: 2
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 13.0
Average Finish: 8.4

Oliver Askew made good impressions this season

Oliver Askew
In an unusual sophomore season, Askew did not have a full-time ride, but he 2019 Indy Lights champion was able to make five starts in 2021. While he made three starts with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, Askew's season started with him as the substitute of choice. 

What objectively was his best race?
Askew was ninth in the Laguna Seca race, his second of three starts with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. He also made it to the Fast Six at Laguna Seca, only the second time an RLLR car made the Fast Six all season.

What subjectively was his best race?
How about a race he did not drive for RLLR? Askew was substitute for Rinus VeeKay in Ed Carpenter Racing's #21 Chevrolet at Road America after VeeKay broke his collarbone. Askew stepped into the car with no testing and was faster than ECR's other driver Conor Daly in pretty much every session, started on the same row as Daly and pulled out a 12th-place finish, eight spots ahead of Daly. Askew was in contention for a top ten all race.
 
What objectively was his worst race?
How about another race Askew did not drive for RLLR? Askew was a last-second substitute for Felix Rosenqvist for the second Belle Isle race after Rosenqvist's accident in the first race of the weekend sent the Swede to hospital. With even less seat time, Askew stepped in and his only laps pre-race was the qualifying session. Of course, with everything aligned against Askew, engine issues retired the car after 46 laps.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Askew made two other starts outside of Laguna Seca with RLLR and neither were impressive. He was caught in multiple accidents at Portland after starting ninth and he was taken out after contact from Sébastien Bourdais. At Long Beach, he hit the barrier in qualifying and started dead last. In the race, contact with Conor Daly put him into the turn nine tire barrier and left him with a 22nd-place finish.
 
Oliver Askew's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 29th (61 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 1
Laps Led: 5
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 2
Average Start: 16.2
Average Finish: 18.4

IndyCar met Christian Lundgaard this season

Christian Lundgaard
One of the many surprises of the 2021 IndyCar season, Lundgaard's IndyCar debut came out of seemingly nowhere. The Danish Alpine F1 Academy driver makes his living in Formula Two, but with Formula Two in the middle of a two-month break, Lundgaard received Alpine's permission to make his IndyCar debut in August on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course.

What objectively was his best race?
It is Lundgaard's only start, 12th in the August IMS road course race!

What subjectively was his best race?
The best part of that weekend was Lundgaard qualifying fourth! And the team left some speed on the table because the team thought it was a three-round qualifying session with a Fast Six session to follow, but the August IMS road course race was one of three races to use the two-round format where the Fast 12 session was the final round of qualifying.
 
What objectively was his worst race?
Lundgaard started well and even led two laps during the intial pit cycle, but he struggled with the alternate tire compound. That is expected of a new driver to the series. It did cost him many positions in this race.

What subjectively was his worst race?
I cannot pretend Lundgaard had a bad race. Does it look good to start fourth and finish 12th? No, but it was his IndyCar debut! That is a great first impression and he ended on a high note. He was back to 16th on lap 65 and in the last 20 laps he moved up to 12th with his personal best lap coming on lap 81 of an 85-lap race.
 
Christian Lundgaard's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 37th (19 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 2
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1 (Note: No Fast Six for the August IMS Road Course race. There were only two qualifying rounds)
Average Start: 4.0
Average Finish: 12.0

An Early Look Ahead
We know RLLR will see a change in personnel after four years of a consistent lineup. 

Rahal remains, but Sato has left with Lundgaard taking over the #30 Honda full-time, and Jack Harvey joins the team in the team's third car, the #45 RLLR Honda. 

It is hard to say 2021 was a good year for the team after it had won a race for six consecutive seasons, but Rahal was in the top ten of the championship again, and Sato fell just short in 11th. Again, Rahal was ahead of three of four Penske drivers and three of four Andretti Autosport drivers. Sato was ahead of half of the Andretti team, specifically Andretti's two most experienced driver.

RLLR is somewhere battling for fourth amongst the IndyCar teams. Its consistency make it feel more like the fourth best team compared to Arrow McLaren SP, who self-pronounced itself as fourth ahead of the 2020 season. AMSP has more of a claim on that honor after the 2021 season, especially when Patricio O'Ward won multiple races and was alive for the championship into the finale. But, I also think AMSP has to back up its 2021 results. We know what RLLR can do, but as of now this is one a flash in the pan for AMSP. 

The difference is I think AMSP can do it again in 2022. RLLR has been trying but has not quite returned to where it was in 2015 when Rahal won two races and went to the finale with championship hopes. There have been plenty of good years and Rahal has always been there, but for some reason Rahal cannot break through and turn top five finishes into victories.

The team was plagued this year with poor qualifying form, and it has been a regular problem for the team over the last few years. Harvey, an exceptional qualifier, enters the fold. Will Harvey alone lift the team? Can both cars find the speed? Or will RLLR continue to lack qualifying pace but pull out respectable race results? 

Lundgaard had RLLR's best qualifying result in 2021. If he had a grasp of an IndyCar that quickly, he could quickly find himself leading the way. Many drivers entered IndyCar last year and immediately looked competitive. One race does not accurately predict the future. Lundgaard will have another 14 tracks to learn including street courses and ovals, but RLLR placing him in a car suggests it has put together its fastest possible three-car lineup. 

RLLR took its time expanding from one car to two cars, and expanding to two cars has benefitted the organization. Three cars is new territory, the land only Andretti, Penske and Ganassi has occupied. The biggest fear is the RLLR organization spreading itself too thin, but with 2021 being a test year, and RLLR running a third car at nine races, it has a great idea of the scale of this operation. This isn't a team diving into three cars unaware of the challenge. This group is ready for a new chapter. 

But we need to see more from this team and we need to see it early in 2022. Top five finishes are great, but RLLR has to start winning races. I am not sure Rahal, Lundgaard or Harvey can be a championship contender next year, but the team needs to assert itself. An early victory will have everyone's attention for the entire season.