October is not quite over yet, but with only a few days left and the month ending on a Sunday, it is best to recap the month now. The month is over, nothing that happens over the next two days will change it that much. Most seasons are nearing the end. A few more have wrapped up. It is getting easier to look ahead. There are fewer distractions.
Seeing how it is easier to look ahead, this is a good chance to look at a problem and see what can be done to fix it. It is difficult during a season to find solutions. It is not the best time, and most changes will not come until a season is over anyway unless things are dire. But we have the time now to work on something that has caused frustration.
IndyCar Qualifying Adjustments
There are plenty of things to work on in an offseason. After IndyCar saw the grid size balloon to up to 28 entries in some events in 2021, and with larger grids appearing to be the norm in 2022, IndyCar is considering tweaking its road/street course qualifying format.
With more cars entered, the first round of qualifying is crowded. IndyCar already splits the cars into two groups for the first round to maximize track space. However, with 28 cars entered in some races, each first round group would have 14 cars, the most cars on track at any point in qualifying. With possibly having two more cars than the second round of qualifying, each first round qualifying group has an increased chance of interference.
IndyCar ended its 2021 season with a qualifying nightmare between interference claims, local yellows, and officiating inconsistencies at Long Beach. The series would be in its best interest to limit the controversies. With a larger and much more competitive grid, a few changes make sense for the series.
But what could IndyCar do?
1. Keep it as it is
This is changing nothing. Same format, same structure, same everything. Why list this? Because I would not be surprised if IndyCar did nothing. It is easy to talk about change but committing to it is frightening. Instead of changing and potentially making a good thing worse, IndyCar might live with what it has because it knows it so well.
Some drivers might be upset with traffic and some drivers will be called for blocking and feel they did nothing wrong. Others will not be called and there will be drivers who feel they were robbed. We have been living with this format for 17 seasons now. Drivers have been mad for 17 seasons. Why change it if IndyCar is not guaranteed it will get better?
2. Split round one into three groups
This is the common sense approach. If IndyCar doesn't want 14 cars on track at once in qualifying, split round one into three groups. Instead of having two ten-minute groups, make it three seven-minute groups. Instead of having 12-14 cars on track at once, make it 8-10 cars. Instead of the top six advancing, the top four could advance.
What are the negatives? For starters, setting the rest of the grid for those who do not advance. It easy when the cars do not advance from group one fills the odd-numbered position and the cars that do not advance from group two fill the even-numbered positions, but there isn't a third option.
IndyCar could snake it with the cars eliminated in group one taking spots 13th, 16th, 19th, 22nd, 25th and 28th, those eliminated in group two would start 14th, 17th, 20th, 23rd and 26th and group three cars would be 15th, 18th, 21st, 24th and 27th.
It isn't that hard, but it does put the group three runners in the disadvantageous position of always starting worse than the cars they finished leveled with comparably in the other groups. Currently, each seventh-place finish starts on row seven. Seventh is equal, same with eighth and so on. With the three-group snake, the third group car would always be behind.
The rest of the grid could always be lined up via time set in qualifying, regardless of the groups, but that puts the first two groups at a disadvantage because the track gets faster as more rubber is laid down. We regularly see seventh or eighth in group two run quicker than sixth in group one because the track has gotten better.
It is the easiest option, but it has its hang-ups.
3. Keep it as is or split into three groups, but end with the Fast 12
I have already stated why I think IndyCar could cut the final round from its qualifying format, but with a tweak needed at the start of the qualifying session, we could see changes to both the start and the end of the session.
We could either keep it as it is and extend the time for each round one group that way the drivers have more time to set a fastest lap or split it into three groups and still give the drivers a little more time to set a fastest lap.
If round one remained two groups, each group could now get 15 minutes with a ten-minute final round. If round one was split into three groups, each group could get ten minutes with a ten-minute final round. Either way, there would be a half-hour of track time for round one and then ten minutes to close. Forty minutes total. Not crazy at all.
4. Pre-qualifying
This isn't pre-qualifying in the old Formula One style where 36 cars would enter a grand prix weekend, and they would have to run a qualifying session just to decide who would participate in qualifying.
My idea for 2022 IndyCar pre-qualifying is this: Prior to the practice session that precedes qualifying, each car gets to run one lap on the alternate tires. That time is set and that is the banker lap time for each car at the start of a qualifying session.
This wouldn't necessarily change the round structure, but we always hear drivers complain when they feel another car has interfered with their fastest lap. Pre-qualifying would be their clean lap. Everyone would have gotten a lap in and that is your time at the start of qualifying.
For example, let's say we are at Mid-Ohio, everyone makes their pre-qualifying lap, we run the final practice session before qualifying, and the grid is split into the qualifying groups for round one. Everyone would start qualifying with their pre-qualifying lap on the board. We would already know who are in the six transfer positions before the session started. The drivers on the outside would have to improve those times. The drivers in the top six could rest on their lap or go out and try to improve and further secure their spot in the next round.
If you do not go faster than your pre-qualifying lap is your qualifying time.
It could be a little confusing, and it does pose a problem if pre-qualifying is in the dry and then it rains during qualifying. In that case, no one would be improving in round one and the top six in each group would be locked into round two. But it could allow IndyCar to keep its current structure and clear up any complaints of interference. IndyCar could wash its hands of it at the start of qualifying and say pre-qualifying is everyone's clean lap and it will only get involved on interference calls if it is clearly deliberate or irresponsible.
With how much I have been thinking about qualifying, I think IndyCar has a pretty clear way to enforce interference, it is the 105% rule. If a Driver A thinks another Driver B interfered, then let's look at the times. If Driver B's lap is within 105% of the fastest time, then it is fine, no penalty. After all, you need to be within 105% to qualify for a race, allegedly. If you are within that limit, you are fine. You are trying to lay down a fastest lap. We could make it quicker, like 102% or 103%. If IndyCar establishes a minimum for trying, then it could make what constitutes interference as better black and white call.
It will not always be as cut and dry as that. You can be within 105% or 102% and cut across another car. If a driver obviously drove in a manner that unnecessary slowed another driver, then call a penalty, but IndyCar could use the lap times to make 99.9% of the decisions and eliminate about 99.9% of race control's headaches.
5. Some type of MotoGP-inspired session
The current MotoGP qualifying format is the top ten riders after the combined practice results following the third practice sessions automatically start in the second round of qualifying, the run for pole position. The rest of the field participates in round one with the top two advancing and having the opportunity to start on pole.
I always liked this format as it makes practice matter more. I think IndyCar could do something similar. Top ten start in round two and then round one is one group with the rest of the field on track. However, that could be anywhere from 14-18 cars on track at the same time if IndyCar adopted this format. IndyCar could break up round one into two group with anywhere from 7-9 cars in each group and the fastest from each group advances. Round two and the Fast Six could still run as usual.
It would be odd not seeing about 35% of the field in round one, but it would make practice worth watching. It is worth considering.
6. Single-lap qualifying
And now the boring option, but the options that guarantees no one complaining about interference. One lap, one car on track at a time, fastest starts first, slowest starts last.
Nobody wants this, but it is there. IndyCar had more qualifying issues toward the end of the season than it seemed in a long-time. Teams were angrier than I can remember in recent seasons with some of these decisions. I don't think anyone wants race control and qualifying decisions to take over a race weekend.
Single-lap, single-car qualifying would definitely prevent that. It would be boring. IndyCar would lose out, but it is always on the table. If IndyCar cannot work out concerns with consistency calls on interference, this is always an option. It would calm everyone in the paddock, but also turnoff viewers. This is incentive for IndyCar and the teams to solve some of these issues and all get on the same page.
November Preview
There will be three Formula One races next month, and with how tight the championship is, we need to focus on that battle. November will heavily decide who will be the 2021 World Drivers' Champion.
After Max Verstappen's victory at Austin, the Dutchman holds a 12-point championship lead over Lewis Hamilton with five races to go. The championship could trade back-and-forth over each of the final five races, but the next two rounds are favorable to Red Bull.
Though Hamilton won the most recent trip to Mexico, Red Bull and Verstappen won the prior two Mexican races. Verstappen won the most recent Brazilian Grand Prix as well, while Hamilton does not have the greatest record at Interlagos, despite having two victories there.
November ends with the first of two unknowns at the tail end of the Formula One season, as the inaugural Qatar Grand Prix at the Local International Circuit takes place on November 21. Losail has not held many major single-seater events over its 17-year existences. Its most notable single-seater event was a GP2 Asia Series round in 2009. Nico Hülkenberg and Sergio Pérez split those races.
If Mexico and Brazil go as many think they will, Verstappen could have a hand on the trophy before even setting foot in the Middle East. A complete sweep of the Western Hemisphere races would give Verstappen a minimum 26-point lead with three races to go. Not to forget mentioning Verstappen already holds the edge with eight victories to Hamilton's five. With two more victories, Verstappen would lock up the tiebreaker, ensuring the championship would be his with at least a 26-point lead entering the Abu Dhabi finale.
Can Mercedes and Hamilton fight back? Hamilton drove close to a perfect race with a slightly slower car at Austin and still fell 1.333 seconds short of victory. In the turbo-hybrid era, Mercedes has never had its back against the wall this late in a season, not to mention there are concerns Hamilton will have to take on another power unit, which would mean starting at the rear in one of the final five races.
We are reaching the point in the fight when we start to see the writing on the wall. Nothing is guaranteed, but we see how momentum is swinging and who it is swinging against. A new champion is rising in front of us.
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We should also take a quick look at the IMSA championships heading into the final round of Petit Le Mans on November 13.
In Daytona Prototype international, four entries are still alive with 385 points on the table, but it is really a two-horse race.
The #10 Wayne Taylor Racing Acura of Filipe Albuquerque and Ricky Taylor lead the championship with 3,071 points, 19 points ahead of the #31 Whelen Engineering Racing Cadillac of Pipo Derani and Felipe Nasr. Should both the top two cars fail to show up to Road Atlanta, the #55 Mazda of Oliver Jarvis and Harry Tincknell has a shot at the title, 189 points off the top. In the same vein, Chip Ganassi Racing could still win a championship on its return season. The #01 Cadillac of Kevin Magnussen and Renger van der Zande is three points behind the Mazda.
Three entries are fighting in LMP2.
Mikkel Jensen and Ben Keating have 1,807 points in the #52 PR1/Mathiasen Motorsports Oreca-Gibson and top that table. The Danish-American duo has a 113-point lead over the #11 WIN Autosport Oreca-Gibson of Tristan Nunez and Steven Thomas. Gabriel Aubry and John Farano is 173 points back in the #8 Tower Motorsport by Starworks Oreca-Gibson.
It is a little more wide-open in LMP3 and it is tighter.
Riley Motorsports' Gar Robinson has a 50-point lead over the CORE Autosport stalwarts Jon Bennett and Colin Braun. Robinson is 206 points ahead of teammates Jim Cox and Dylan Murry. Rasmus Lindh is 262 points and Oliver Askew has a slim chance, sitting 296 points back.
The GT Le Mans championship will likely fall to one of the two Corvettes.
Antonio García and Jordan Taylor lead in the #3 Corvette on 3,269 points. The #4 Corvette enters Petit Le Mans with three wins on the spin and Tommy Milner and Nick Tandy are 127 points behind the sister car. Cooper MacNeil mathematically has a shot. The #79 Porsche driver is 295 points back but would need Corvette to not show up to have any hope at the title.
Five lineups are alive in GT Daytona.
Zach Robichon and Laurens Vanthoor have won three of the last four races and the #9 Pfaff Motorsports Porsche leads with 2,938 points, but the #1 Paul Miller Racing Lamborghini is only 50 points back with Madison Snow and Bryan Sellers. The WeatherTech Sprint Cup champions Roman De Angelis and Ross Gunn can take the overall title, as the #23 Heart of Racing Aston Martin is 177 points back. Patrick Long trails by 279 points while a disaster pair of races has the #96 Turner Motorsport BMW of Bill Auberlen and Robby Foley needing a miracle, entering Road Atlanta exactly 300 points off the #9 Porsche.
Other events of note in November:
NASCAR seasons ends at Phoenix.
FIA World Endurance Championship ends with an eight-hour race in Bahrain.
MotoGP has two deadrubbers.
Supercars still has three race weekends at Sydney Motorsports Park.
World Superbike will run the street course around Mandalika Resort in Indonesia to end its season.
