Wednesday, October 27, 2021

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Ed Carpenter Racing's 2021 Season

Our fifth IndyCar Wrap-Up looks at Ed Carpenter Racing, a team that experienced both ends of the spectrum. The year started on the highest of highs, but ended on the lowest of lows. It all levels out to an average season, but one that raises more questions than answers. It seems like a common theme at the end of each season for this organization. We ask ourselves, what is Ed Carpenter Racing?

VeeKay's start well and then backslid quickly

Rinus VeeKay
After a strong rookie season, VeeKay opened 2021 picking up right where he left off and he reached higher levels. VeeKay returned Ed Carpenter Racing to the top step of the podium for the first time in five years and it was Chevrolet's first victory of the season. Unfortunately for VeeKay, a midseason injury flipped his season upside down.

What objectively was his best race?
His maiden IndyCar victory! VeeKay was stellar in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and he got quicker with each stint. He negotiated traffic better than Romain Grosjean and VeeKay had a better balance on both tire compounds. It allowed him to take the lead with 21 laps to go during a pit cycle and the Dutchman pull out a victory by around five seconds over Grosjean.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is hard to top your first victory, but VeeKay opened the season with fantastic results, six top ten finishes from the first seven races in fact. This included a strong drive at Barber Motorsports Park when he went off strategy after the Jimmie Johnson caution on lap 12 and VeeKay could run a little harder. It got him sixth-place and he did it with a broken thumb, which occurred just a little over a week earlier in testing at Indianapolis. 
  
What objectively was his worst race?
The final race of the season. VeeKay was 25th at Long Beach. It was his eighth consecutive finish outside the top fifteen and his fourth finish outside the top twenty in the final six races. 
 
What subjectively was his worst race?
How about the race he missed due to a broken clavicle? VeeKay injured himself cycling the Monday before the Road America race. He was not going to be fit for race day and that incident was the turning point for his season. 

In the eight races prior to the injury, he had a victory, a runner-up finish and six top ten finishes leaving him fourth in the championship. After the injury, he had seven consecutive finishes outside the top fifteen. VeeKay had consecutive 24th-place finishes at Nashville and the second IMS road course race. He suffered some damage in the Simon Pagenaud turn 11 accident at Nashville and then was accidentally spun when Scott McLaughlin got into him. 

In the final eight races, VeeKay scored 77 points, ranking him 22nd in IndyCar over the second half of the season. He scored the same number of points as Jimmie Johnson in the final eight races and they each missed a race. 

Rinus VeeKay's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 12th (308 points)
Wins: 1
Podiums: 2
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 6
Laps Led: 72
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 6
Average Start: 14.154 
Average Finish: 14.533

Conor Daly did not make the most of this season

Conor Daly
For the second consecutive season, Daly ran all the road and street courses and the Indianapolis 500 for Ed Carpenter Racing. After a difficult season last year with ECR, Daly was not much better in 2021. He might have been better in the intra-team battle, but Daly barely made a blip on the IndyCar radar.

What objectively was his best race?
With Ed Carpenter Racing, Daly's best result was 11th in the August IMS road course race.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is the August IMS road course race. Daly started in the top ten but blew the first corner early and it knocked him out of the top ten. He spent what felt like the entire race in 11th, but could not make it back into the top ten.

The Indianapolis 500 also deserves a mention because he led 40 laps, mostly because he cycled to the front when Stefan Wilson spun entering pit lane. This gifted Daly at least 15 positions, but fuel-mileage was not on his side and it knocked him out of the top spots. He ended up 13th, which included a slow pit stop and punting the left rear tire that had come off of Graham Rahal's car after Rahal's botched pit stop mid-race.
 
What objectively was his worst race?
Twenty-fifth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, after being knocked off course and suffering gearbox issues. This was another race where Daly started in the top ten, he made the Fast Six actually, and had nothing to show for it. 
 
What subjectively was his worst race?
When your teammate wins and you are 25th, that is the worst race of your season, doesn't matter how it happened. It doesn't help that for two seasons the significantly more experienced Daly has been thoroughly beat on a weekly basis at the hands of VeeKay. Daly is too far off VeeKay when you consider Daly has 50 more starts than his teammate.

But Road America was also particularly bad because Oliver Askew stepped into ECR substituting for the injured VeeKay and Askew was ahead of Daly the entire weekend. 

Conor Daly's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 18th (201 of Daly's 235 points came with ECR)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 40
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 4 
Average Start: 15.071
Average Finish: 16.563

Same old, same old for Ed Carpenter in 2021

Ed Carpenter
Carpenter continued his role as an oval-only driver. The only problem is this season had only four oval races, making it his fewest starts in a season since 2010 when he was part-time with Panther Racing. Unfortunately, Carpenter's result leaned more toward disappointing than inspiring. 

What objectively was his best race?
Fifth in the Indianapolis 500 after starting fourth. 

What subjectively was his best race?
Carpenter's fifth at Indianapolis looks better when you note he stalled on his first pit stop. This forced Carpenter to run hard for the rest of the race and he was able to set himself up in a top ten position, which turned into a top five result as some teams got the strategy wrong or could not run at Carpenter's pace.

What objectively was his worst race?
Carpenter spun on his own in-between turns three and four at Gateway and ended up 22nd.
 
What subjectively was his worst race?
This was a four-race season for Carpenter. On top of 22nd at Gateway, he was 17th in the first Texas race, mostly stuck at the back because the field was set via entrants' points and Texas is a single-lane racetrack. However, I am not sure it would have matter as Carpenter did not show much speed in practice.

What could make Gateway worse than Texas is Carpenter was quick during practice at Gateway and then immediately qualified at the back of the field and Carpenter even ran over Dalton Kellett coming to a restart. Carpenter made Kellett a victim! That is bad day when you make Dalton Kellett look good. 

Ed Carpenter's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 27th (107 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 1
Top Tens: 1
Laps Led: 1
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 13.0
Average Finish: 13.75

An Early Look Ahead
Ed Carpenter Racing went from top ten finishes in six of the first seven races to zero top ten finishes in the final nine races. 

VeeKay went from one of the handful of young stars leading the pack in the first half of the season to middle of the field by the time the season ended. Álex Palou won the championship. Patricio O'Ward was one of the championship contenders into the finale. Colton Herta tied for the most victories. VeeKay fell out of the conversation. 

I am not sure which team ECR actually is after this season. Through the first half, it appeared ECR was back to being a contender. It even extends back to last season when VeeKay scored his first career pole position and podium finish at the Harvest Grand Prix weekend on the IMS road course. ECR looked like it was getting back to where it was in Josef Newgarden's final season. It looked good until the second half of the season. 

We cannot say for certain VeeKay's broken collarbone caused his downturn in form, but after that accident his best finish was 16th. Four times he finished outside the top twenty in the final eight races. 

It didn't help that Daly never scored a top ten. Ed Carpenter was fifth in the Indianapolis 500, but it was his only top ten finish of the season. I am at more of a loss with this team after 2021 than I was after 2020 when VeeKay thrashed Daly despite being a rookie. 

The team clearly has something good. I don't think the first half of the season was a fluke. Six races are too many to be a fluke. After every season I ask what does ECR want out of the #20 entry? In two seasons, Daly has zero top ten finishes. The last time the #20 entry was on a road/street course podium was when Luca Filippi was second at Toronto in a 1-2 result for the CFH Racing team with Newgarden taking victory. That is also the #20 Chevrolet's most recent top five finish on a road/street course as well. 

The original goal of splitting the #20 entry was to maximize points and finish as high up the entrants' championship as possible. Outside of that first season in 2014 when Mike Conway won two races, ECR has not come close to combining Carpenter with another driver to top IndyCar's hierarchy. 

Daly could be back but what will change in season three? Daly doesn't need to make a minor step forward, he needs a Grand Canyon-wide leap for respectable results. With many drivers coming in from all-around the globe and succeeding in IndyCar, there are plenty of options out there from ECR to snag and make the #20 entry a threat on road and street courses. ECR tested Ryan Hunter-Reay, a proven commodity at Barber this week. Hunter-Reay didn't have a great 2020 season, but there is more reason to feel confident with him than Daly. 

Regardless if ECR hires Hunter-Reay, some other IndyCar-experienced driver, or a rookie with flashy speed, if you combine that driver with VeeKay, an IndyCar race winner who can use this offseason to refocus on what worked in the first half of the season in 2021, ECR could improve greatly in 2022. But if the team keeps the status quo, it will continue to be maligned in the middle of the pack.