Monday, November 22, 2021

Musings From the Weekend: The Almighty Bonus

It was a big weekend for weather, and it effectively helped two people claim championships. The weather did hold off for Formula One's inaugural Qatar Grand Prix. A record was matched in Italy. A streak was broken in Indonesia. It was the 68th Macau Grand Prix weekend, but it was still a domestic weekend and still Formula Four race. Rob Huff did not make it to Macau this year. NASCAR did some oval testing at Charlotte. NASCAR also announced its new practice and qualifying format and it continues to try too hard. The United States has its driver pairing for the February's Race of Champions from Sweden and it is Jimmie Johnson and Travis Pastrana. A Belgian and a Dutchman will be testing for IndyCar teams at Sebring next month. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking. 

The Almighty Bonus
This fierce Formula One battle for the world championship is unlike many that have come before it. 

It is not different because it is Lewis Hamilton vs. Max Verstappen. It is not different because it is Mercedes vs. Red Bull. The regulations have nothing to do with it, nor does the schedule length or where races are held. It isn't different because it is 2021 and we live in an instantaneous society where everything happening now is the most special and greatest thing in human history. 

This championship is different because it is one of the few Formula One seasons where bonus points could be the deciding factor in champion. 

Bonus points are not entirely new to Formula One. Fastest lap awarded one point from 1950 through 1959, and that bonus point was reintroduced in 2019. However, the 2021 season has seen the introduction of sprint qualifying, the 100-kilometer race held on Saturday to determine the grid for the grand prix. Sprint qualifying was used at three rounds, Silverstone, Monza and Interlagos, and with the new session came points for the top three finishers, three points to first, two to second and one to third. 

With the fastest lap point out, 19 races have a maximum of 26 points, but sprint qualifying means three rounds are worth a maximum of 29 points. With these extra points floating around not tied to a finishing position, it allows for greater permutations at the end of a grand prix on Sunday. A winner could be the winner, but second might not be as big of a loser as it was in the previous race. The championship lead can change before we even get into a race and the number of points a race winner has could change until the final car takes the checkered flag. 

Bonus points have already shaped this battle between Verstappen and Hamilton as we have two races remaining in Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi.  

After Hamilton's victory ahead of Verstappen in the inaugural Qatar Grand Prix, Verstappen holds the championship lead with 351.5 points, eight points of clear Hamilton' 343.5 points, but Verstappen has been the biggest benefactor from the three sprint qualifying weekends. The Dutchman has scored seven points from those three weekends. He won the inaugural sprint at Silverstone and was runner-up in the other two. Hamilton meanwhile was second at Silverstone, but fourth at Monza and he was sent to the rear of the field at Interlagos due to a DRS infraction. Starting 20th, he was able to climb to fifth but added no points to his coffer, leaving Hamiltn with two sprint qualifying points this season. 

It is true the rules are the same for everyone, but sprint qualifying affectively made the British Grand Prix, Italian Grand Prix and Brazilian Grand Prix more valuable than all the other races. The same number of points are not on offer in the other 19 races. All the opportunities are gone to score sprint qualifying points this season, and Verstappen handily won that battle. 

For this introduction and trial year of sprint qualifying, it would have been fairer if no points whatsoever were awarded. Every grand prix weekend should be worth the same or be in proportion with all the other races. It is too late to retroactively add points and opportunities to grand prix weekends lost. 

With sprint qualifying points removed, Verstappen is on 344.5 points and Hamilton is on 341.5 points and the gap is down to three points! 

Now let's look at fastest lap, which has a more strategical element to it. It is common for a manufacture to pull a driver in for a pit stop late to take fastest lap away from a rival. Red Bull employed this at Interlagos, having Sergio Pérez stop on the penultimate lap to take fastest lap away from Hamilton on the final lap of the race. Mercedes used the same strategy the previous week at Mexico City, with Valtteri Bottas making a late pit stop and nicking fastest lap away from Verstappen. After it was clear Verstappen was not going to win in Qatar, Red Bull could employ a strategy to finish second and get the fastest lap, and he did.

After Qatar, Verstappen and Hamilton are level on fastest laps with five each. It is a wash if you remove the points, as the gap remains at three, but with Verstappen is on 339.5 points to Hamilton's 336.5 points.

But factoring in the World Constructors' Championship, Mercedes leads currently with 546.5 points while Red Bull is on 541.5 points. Removing all the fastest laps and sprint qualifying points earned between the teams' four drivers, Mercedes would lose 18 points and Red Bull would lose 14 points, as Pérez did not score a single sprint qualifying point this year. Without bonus points, Mercedes would lead by a point, 528.5 points to Red Bull's 527.5 points! 

Of course, the most glaring numbers on the 2021 championship tables are those that come behind the decimal points. These decimals will long be a mark in the history book of one of Formula One's most controversial weekends and decisions. 

The 2021 Belgian Grand Prix officially took place, but it was hardly an attempt to race, more fill a spot in the record book and avoid having to cancel a grand prix on race day. Heavy rains made it difficult for any race attempt. The race started behind the safety car and two formation laps were made before the cars were brought into the garage. 

For hours people sat, waiting for a decision. Daylight began to disappear in the Ardennes and a full distance race was impractical, even reaching the 75% distance to award full points was highly unlikely. The stewards did not call the race but made one more attempt. They said the first pair of pace laps did not count and when the safety car left the grid again with the field in tow, these were the first laps of the race. Two laps were completed behind the safety car. On the third lap, the red flag was unveiled, and race control declared the race official, because by definition it was official. The minimum requirement for a race to be declared official is two laps, regardless if green or behind the safety car. 

With the minimum requirement met, points were awarded as stated in the regulations, and since the race failed to reach the 75% mark, half points were awarded to the ten points-paying positions, but no point nor half-point was awarded for fastest lap, as no green flag lap was created. 

Just as it is too late to add sprint qualifying to the 19 race weekends that will not have it, it is too late to reverse course on the Belgian Grand Prix decision and Max Verstappen is credited as the winner and was awarded 12.5 points. Lewis Hamilton received 7.5 points for finishing third and the only other driver picking up a decimal point because of the strange lack of odd-number point-paying positions, was Carlos Sainz, Jr., who received a half-point for tenth-place classification. 

Remove all the bonus points and remove the Belgian Grand Prix, Hamilton would lead with 329 points to Verstappen's 327 points. Mercedes would have 521 points to Red Bull's 515 points. 

The last 20 months have been different. Last year's Formula One season was unprecedented. Though returning to almost complete normalcy, this year's Formula One season has somehow been even crazier than the year prior and we can see it in the points. And we will likely see it in the points until the final lap of the season. 

The championship could be decided earlier than it would because of the extra points counted toward the championship. The champion could be different because of the extra points at some rounds over others. But even more likely is the champion could come down not to the final lap of the season, but the final car crossing the finish line, possibly finish fourth, the final car on the lead lap and the championship could hang in the balance on who earns that fastest lap point. 

With how this championship battle between Verstappen and Hamilton, Red Bull and Mercedes, has gone in the first 20 races, we need to prepare for the championship coming down to Sergio Pérez and Valtteri Bottas, two drivers were mathematically eliminated from the championship after the Mexican Grand Prix. It might not even be Pérez or Bottas. AlphaTauri could be the spoiler with Pierre Gasly. Daniel Ricciardo and McLaren could be the fly in the ointment. It could be Fernando Alonso and Alpine! The champion might not be known until everyone has completed the final race of the season, something that arguably has never happened before. 

If that is the case, bonus points will a bigger winner than anyone in Formula One ever imagined. 

Champions From the Weekend

Toprak Razgatlioglu clinched the World Superbike Championship with finishes of second and fourth at Mandalika.

Sébastien Ogier clinched his eighth World Rally Championship with a victory in the ACI Rally Monza. 

Shane van Gisbergen clinched his second Supercars championship with a victory in the first Supercars race from Sydney Motorsports Park and the cancellation of the second race due to weather.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Lewis Hamilton, Sébastien Ogier and Shane van Gisbergen, but did you know...

Jonathan Rea swept the two World Superbike races from Mandalika, as weather forced the cancellation of the SuperPole race. Raffaele De Rosa and Jules Cluzel split the World Supersport races.

Hon Chio Leong won the Macau Grand Prix for the second consecutive year. 

Coming Up This Weekend
Super GT wraps up its season at Fuji.
World Touring Car Cup concludes in Sochi.