Friday, November 5, 2021

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Arrow McLaren SP's 2021 Season

The eighth IndyCar Wrap-Up dives into Arrow McLaren SP. After years of talking about becoming IndyCar's fourth best team, AMSP finally showed some results that were worthy of that claim. Not only did the team get back to victory lane, it was in the championship fight until the final day of the season against the big boys from Chip Ganassi Racing and Team Penske. 

Patricio O'Ward cannot complain much about his season

Patricio O'Ward
The 2020 IndyCar Rookie of the Year was expected to break out in 2021, and the Mexican driver indeed broke out. From the first race of the season, O'Ward was a presence at every race. Constantly starting and running at the front, O'Ward went from a young driver looking for his first victory to a first-time championship contender, including leading the championship with three races to go. However, while majority of the days were glorious for him, O'Ward needed a few more to earn IndyCar's ultimate prize.

What objectively was his best race?
O'Ward won two races, his first was in the second race of the Texas weekend. The second was the second race of the Belle Isle weekend.

What subjectively was his best race?
Texas was a good showing, where O'Ward led 25 laps and he took the lead after he was able to run at a quicker pace before his final pit stop and he came out ahead of Josef Newgarden, but it is the second Belle Isle race. O'Ward was going to finish in the top five, but late cautions gave him second life.

With two late restarts, O'Ward jetted through the field. With three laps to go, he took the lead with a pass on Newgarden, who had led every lap to that point. O'Ward had to pass some of IndyCar's best just to get to Newgarden. In such a hectic and tight environment, no one was stopping O'Ward in those closing laps.

What objectively was his worst race?
The bad news, it was the final race of the year, where O'Ward was spun on the opening lap in the hairpin at Long Beach after Ed Jones was overaggressive. Within 20 laps, O'Ward ground to a halt with a mechanical issue. The team repaired the car as best as it could and he was classified 27th, the worst finish of his IndyCar career.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It is hard to go beyond Long Beach, but for how competitive O'Ward was this season, many races slipped away due to poor tire management. 

The season started with O'Ward on pole position, but he could not conserve his tires early and after leading the first 25 laps, he fell out of the lead and never challenged for the top spot again. At St. Petersburg, he started sixth, but the balance was never there and he quickly fell down the order to finish 19th. He had the same problem at Portland, where he was gifted the top spot when pole-sitter and championship rival Álex Palou blew the chicane, as did Scott Dixon and Alexander Rossi. It was set for O'Ward to potentially strengthen his grip on the championship lead, but he had to stop early for tires and dropped down the order, ultimately finishing 14th.

He also had a dismal performance at Nashville, where he drew two separate penalties, including one for contact with Alexander Rossi entering turn four, the dagger to an already difficult day. 

Patricio O'Ward's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 3rd (487 points)
Wins: 2
Podiums: 5
Top Fives: 9
Top Tens: 11
Laps Led: 118
Poles: 3
Fast Sixes: 3
Fast Twelves: 10
Average Start: 8.3571
Average Finish: 8.3125

It was a curious season for Felix Rosenqvist

Felix Rosenqvist
After two conflicting seasons at Chip Ganassi Racing, Rosenqvist moved to Arrow McLaren SP in a surprising move. The Swede was the 2019 IndyCar Rookie of the Year, and he scored his first victory in 2020, but his overall performance dipped. Things did not get better in Rosenqvist's new outfit.

What objectively was his best race?
Rosenqvist was sixth at Portland after starting fourth, but Rosenqvist was one of the many driver to blow the chicane at the start and shuffle to the back of the field early. However, an early pit stop after being moved to the back of the field, combined with the cautions allowed the strategy to get Rosenqvist back to the front.

What subjectively was his best race?
Nashville was the best race Rosenqvist drove all season. He should have finished in the top five as he kept up with the leaders, but he lost positions late as his tires were gone and he settled for eighth.

What objectively was his worst race?
Rosenqvist led 14 laps in the Indianapolis 500, including with eight laps to go, and yet he finished 27th, one lap down. It was a roll of the dice on strategy, hoping to save fuel and get a caution late to steal victory. Unfortunately, there was no way he was going to save enough fuel to make it to the finish even with a caution. It wasn't a good day for him to begin with, but this was his one chance in IndyCar's biggest race.

What subjectively was his worst race?
It is hard to beat the one that sent you to the hospital. Rosenqvist had a throttle stick going through turn six at Belle Isle and he slammed into the tire barrier, knocking the concrete barrier backward. The good news is Rosenqvist was not seriously injured, but he was not cleared to race the next day and he missed the next race at Road America as well.
 
Felix Rosenqvist's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 21st (205 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 2
Laps Led: 14
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 3
Average Start: 12.5
Average Finish: 16.357

An Early Look Ahead
There are many reasons to be encouraged about AMSP's future, but change will come quick if half the team does not pick up its results. 

O'Ward will need to have a strong follow up season, but he is not the concern. Rosenqvist entered IndyCar and looked to be a future star in 2019. At the end of 2021, we have a shadow of Rosenqvist's 2019 season currently in the series. 

I thought Rosenqvist would have relatively competitive results in his first year with AMSP, but he was rarely on the same page as O'Ward. Knowing AMSP's quick trigger, releasing James Hinchcliffe hastily after 2019 and giving up on Oliver Askew before 2020 was even complete, it is a little surprising it is riding with Rosenqvist, but Rosenqvist has to get results in 2022 or he will not return for a third season. Nico Hülkenberg tested for the team, but the German has said he will not pursue any IndyCar opportunities, and Stoffel Vandoorne plans on testing for AMSP. The organizations is already holding auditions. 

We saw the team has what it takes to run with the big boys. It does have to clean up its strategy and set up. For as much praise the team received, it let many races slip away. Too often O'Ward would have one bad stint and it would cost the team four or five positions. The team's difficulty with tire balance easily cost the team two races. Flip those, especially Portland, and O'Ward is champion. 

For how good O'Ward ran, he only led more than 25 laps in one race, Portland, and he never led the most laps in a race. 

IndyCar is a difficult series. I thought O'Ward would be a top five championship driver this year, but fall from fourth in the championship. He actually ended up jumping to third. O'Ward could be the 2022 champion or he could end up tenth in the championship and neither would be a surprise. There is a world where Álex Palou and Josef Newgarden stay in the top five of the championship while Scott Dixon, Colton Herta, Will Power, Graham Rahal, Alexander Rossi, Romain Grosjean and Simon Pagenaud all jump up ahead of the O'Ward in the championship. IndyCar is that close. I don't expect O'Ward to fall that far, but it is not completely inconceivable. 

We have seen in two full seasons O'Ward can compete anywhere. He won at Texas and he won at Belle Isle. In 38 starts, he has nine podium finishes and 15 top five finishes. Those nine podium finishes have been on five ovals, three street courses and a road course. His top five finishes are seven on ovals, five on road courses and three on street courses. There really isn't a weakness in terms of discipline. The weakness is tire management, but he does not put himself far from the top, meaning even when he stumbles the results do not look that bad. If the team cleans that up, results will get better.

Looking a little further down the road, AMSP has been open to expanding to three cars. O'Ward should be set for the next four or five years. He is testing a Formula One car in December, but I don't think he will be in the McLaren F1 program anytime soon. O'Ward will face increased competition should the team expand. McLaren is taking this program seriously. It could pull in any of a number of drivers from other series. It could be Vandoonre. It could be another driver from Formula One, Formula E, Super Formula or the World Endurance Championship to name a few other series. We are already seeing Alexander Rossi slide from top Andretti driver to second and possibly third in the organization. In a few years, O'Ward could be a similar boat. 

Until we come to that, AMSP is coming off its best season dating back to its time as Schmidt Peterson Motorsports. For all its talk over the last two years, it must back up its 2021 results more than any other team.