Wednesday, November 10, 2021

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Chip Ganassi Racing's 2021 Season

Our final IndyCar Wrap-Up is here and it is our champions, Chip Ganassi Racing. After winning a title in 2020, the team expanded back to four full-time cars, brought in two new drivers, and one returnee for oval races. These changes did not rock the apple cart, and the team looked stronger than ever in 2021. 

Álex Palou: An unexpected champion

Álex Palou
A good, but far from spectacular rookie season, took Palou from Dale Coyne Racing to Chip Ganassi Racing, a team with high expectations. Let's just say it did not take Palou long to get on Ganassi's good side and a bright first day only foreshadowed what was to come.

What objectively was his best race?
Palou won three races, including the season opener at Barber Motorsports Park after leading 56 of 90 laps, Road America after leading five of 55 laps, but taking the lead with two laps to go when Josef Newgarden's gearbox failed on the final restart, and winning from pole position at Portland, but in a race where pole position was not an advantage and Palou still won with 29 laps led. 

What subjectively was his best race?
This is more difficult than I thought it would be, but not because a champion is supposed to have a lot of great finishes, rather because of what each finish meant to Palou's season. 

Barber is important. It set the tone. He didn't just win that race, he controlled it, leading 56 laps from third. He had a balance on the car at a track he had never raced at before, better than the other front-runners, all of whom had experience at the Alabama road course. 

Road America is important because he was able to scoop up a victory when another championship rival stumbled. Palou could have been third or fourth when Newgarden sputtered, but Palou was second and scored the most points that day when the opportunity presented itself. 

Portland is where Palou kept his composure. He entered second in the championship after losing the lead eight days earlier at Gateway when Rinus VeeKay drove into him in turn one. Palou won pole position, but blew the chicane at the start and was shuffled to the rear of the field. All the pieces were laid out for this to be a championship collapse, but Palou did not overdrive the car in the remaining 100 laps of that race. The team changed the strategy, Palou remained ahead of all the other cars sent to the back for missing the chicane and the cautions flew in his favor. He had the track position and with his speed it got him to the lead and he won the race. 

I will say Portland was his best race because he could have lost the championship that day and instead regained control.

What objectively was his worst race?
Palou lost an engine while running in the top five of the August IMS road course race and it dropped him to 27th out of 28 cars. It also cut his championship lead in half from 42 points to 21 points over Patricio O'Ward.

What subjectively was his worst race?
The only race I am not sure what happened was St. Petersburg. That was the only race where the team was not dialed in and Palou finished 17th. It wasn't a terrible weekend, he did qualify tenth, but it was the only weekend the team went in the wrong direction. 

Gateway also was not great and Palou did have to start at the back because of an engine change, but that result wasn't on him.

Álex Palou's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 1st (549 points)
Wins: 3
Podiums: 8
Top Fives: 10
Top Tens: 12
Laps Led: 137
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 6
Fast Twelves: 11
Average Start: 8.1243
Average Finish: 7.3125

It is hard to get down about a Scott Dixon season

Scott Dixon
Fresh off his sixth championship, Dixon had more IndyCar history to chase down in 2021, most notably a record-tying seventh championship and possibly moving into second all-time in victories. Through the first quarter of the season, Dixon looked poised for another historic season, but it was not meant to be.

What objectively was his best race?
Dixon led 206 of 212 laps in the first Texas race and it gave him the championship lead, but it was Dixon's only victory of the season.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is weird to say it is the race Dixon won and led the most laps in, but it is the race Dixon won and led the most laps in, the first Texas race. 

Normally, Dixon wins a race where he might have been the third or fourth best car, but made the right choice on tires and stretched the alternate compound four laps longer than anyone else could or he was knocked out in the first round of qualifying due to a untimely red flag, started 13th and ended pulling out a victory. That didn't happen the season for Dixon.

What objectively was his worst race?
Dixon was caught in the early Gateway accident when Rinus VeeKay got into Álex Palou and Dixon had nowhere to go. The team did repair the car, but Dixon only completed 100 laps and finished 19th. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
The Indianapolis 500. Stefan Wilson's caution for his spin entering the pit lane put many leaders in a bind. They had yet to make their first pit stops and were close on fuel. When Dixon was finally able to make his stop, he had run his car out of fuel and it caused his car to shut down. This forced the team to perform a complete recycle on the electrical system before the car could restart. 

Once fired up, Dixon had lost a lap and he would spend most of the race one lap down. He was back on the lead lap after Graham Rahal's accident just shy of the 300-mile mark, but with so little attrition, Dixon was still outside the top twenty. He went off-strategy hoping to pull out an unfathomable result, but he ended up 17th. 
 
Scott Dixon's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 4th (481 points)
Wins: 1
Podiums: 5
Top Fives: 9
Top Tens: 12
Laps Led: 401
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 4
Fast Twelves: 9
Average Start: 8.1429
Average Finish: 7.4375

In any other year, Marcus Ericsson would be the surprise of the season

Marcus Ericsson
After a respectable first season with Ganassi in 2020, Ericsson picked up his results in 2021 and surprised many. The Swede was on more podiums and led more laps than in his first two IndyCar seasons combined. He also was able to achieve something for Chip Ganassi that the team owner had never experienced before. 

What objectively was his best race?
Ericsson won not once, but twice! His first victory was the first Belle Isle street course race when Will Power's car failed to restart after the final red flag was lifted with five laps to go. Ericsson inherited the lead and held on for the victory. It was the first time Chip Ganassi Racing ever had three different drivers win a race in one IndyCar season. 

The second victory was even crazier! Ericsson climbed over Sébastien Bourdais' car coming to the restart on lap five. Ericsson continued and was repaired. With the number of cautions, Ericsson cycled to the lead with an alternate strategy and he was holding off a charging Colton Herta until Herta hit the barrier with six laps to go. Ericsson had one restart to defend from teammate Scott Dixon and Ericsson finished an improbable race on top.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is a race Ericsson did not win. It is his second-place result at Mid-Ohio. In all fairness, Ericsson had a lot of fortunate on his side in both his victories. You do need a few things to go your way sometimes to get a victory, but that doesn't mean it was your best day on the track. The most impressive race from Ericsson was Mid-Ohio, where he was second for basically the entire race and he was chasing down Josef Newgarden in the closing laps, as Ericsson had better tire life late in stints. 

It did not end as a victory, but Ericsson turned what was a Newgarden runaway into a late scramble. One mistake from Newgarden and Ericsson would have rained on the Independence Day parade. 

What objectively was his worst race?
Ericsson was put into the turn one tire barrier on lap 26 at Long Beach. That ended his race and his season early with a 28th-place finish.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Ericcson did not have many bad races this season. He had nine consecutive top ten results from his Belle Isle victory in June through Laguna Seca in the middle of September. One race that got away from him was the first Texas race when a botched pit stop cost him a top ten finish. Ericsson left his pit box without his right rear tire properly secured. Fortunately, he stopped in the pit lane and did not return to the racetrack. All that was hurt that day was his pride and the race car remained in one piece. 
 
Marcus Ericsson's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 6th (435 points)
Wins: 2
Podiums: 3
Top Fives: 3
Top Tens: 12
Laps Led: 45
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 5
Average Start: 12.357
Average Finish: 9.0625

Welcome to IndyCar, Jimmie Johnson

Jimmie Johnson
The anticipated second career of the seven-time NASCAR Cup Series champion began and Johnson's foray into IndyCars brought excitement, but also trepidation for such a switch from rotund, full-bodied race cars to featherlight open-wheelers. He might have been 45 years old, but Johnson was a clear rookie. 

What objectively was his best race?
Johnson's best two races objectively were the final two races of the season, both 17th-place finishes, both in his home state of California, first at Laguna Seca and then at Long Beach.

What subjectively was his best race?
Johnson ended the season strongly compared to his start of the season. He wasn't spinning out. He wasn't as slow as he was. He got his first lead lap finish in the August IMS road course. I would say Laguna Seca is his best race because he was legitimately faster than James Hinchcliffe, Rinus VeeKay and Hélio Castroneves in that race.

What objectively was his worst race?
Johnson was caught in the Simon Pagenaud/Will Power accident on lap 19 at Nashville, and his car was repairable, but the team was deemed to have been working on the car while under a red flag and his car was parked, leaving him in 26th with only 18 laps completed. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
This was a difficult season for Johnson. He had many spins and many brushes with the barriers. He was learning a completely new style of car after over 20 years of driving a stock car for nearly 40 weeks a year. We knew this season was not going to have many stellar moments. 

St. Petersburg is particularly bad because he brought out two cautions, one of which the race stayed green for nearly two laps because Johnson kept the car running and all he had to do was backup from the tire barrier on the outside turn 14. He couldn't get the gearbox into reverse and eventually stalled out. Then he lost it on cold tires in turn three.

Jimmie Johnson's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 26th (108 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 23.583
Average Finish: 21.083

Tony Kanaan was back with Ganassi in 2021

Tony Kanaan
While Johnson focused on the road and street courses, Kanaan filled the seat for the oval events in a return to the Ganassi organization. It was Kanaan's second season as an oval-only driver in IndyCar. There were a few good results, but it was mostly average for the past champion and past Indianapolis 500 winner.

What objectively was his best race?
Kanaan was tenth in the Indianapolis 500.

What subjectively was his best race?
Nothing can really top finishing tenth in the Indianapolis 500, but the first Texas race deserves a mention because Kanaan had to start 23rd after qualifying was rained out. He was the fastest car in the only practice session. Despite difficult track conditions, Kanaan went from 23rd to finish 11th and on the lead lap

What objectively was his worst race?
Kanaan was 15th in the second Texas race, finishing two laps down after being caught in the opening lap accident, but the team was able to make repairs and get him back on track. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
I am not going to single out one race because the worst thing is Kanaan made three of his four starts in 30 days and then did not race again in IndyCar for 83 days. Gateway was his final race and he finished 13th, never factoring in the race.

It is just how IndyCar is and Kanaan was always going to scale back his schedule. He wasn't going to be full-time forever, but it would be nice if IndyCar could at least get back to six oval races and have a few more dispersed in the middle of the season. Six oval races are still a little low, but it is a lot better than four. IndyCar will have five oval races in 2022, but they will be at four tracks over four weekends, as Iowa returns as doubleheader. It is at least better, but no cause for celebration. 
 
Tony Kanaan's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 28th (96 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 1
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 11.5
Average Finish: 12.25

An Early Look Ahead
Off consecutive championships, Chip Ganassi Racing is basically set for the 2022 season. Palou, Dixon and Ericsson will all return. The only questions are does Johnson commit to a full schedule and expand to ovals? And, if yes, what does that mean for Kanaan?

There is a shifting dynamic at Ganassi. Palou has locked up a seat for the next ten years if he wants it. With how he performed in his sophomore season, when six of the 14 tracks were completely new to him, it can only get better from here. He isn't going to win a championship every season, and it would be foolish to pencil him in for 50 victories and another five championships like Dixon, but Palou will do more. 

With Palou's success, Dixon had a subdued season based on his standard. At 41 years old, the mind wanders to when Dixon's dip is something more permanent than temporary. Nothing lasts forever. Just look across the Ganassi tent. Jimmie Johnson won his seventh NASCAR Cup championship in 2016. He opened 2017 with three victories in the first 13 races and then did not win again in his final 130 Cup starts. Prior to that, Johnson averaged 19.64 victories per 130 starts. 

We don't want to see Dixon suffer a similar falloff. We want to see Dixon end on top, but it doesn't happen often. Dixon did have a one-victory season in 2017 and followed it up with a championship. I think he could have another off-season next year and still have the benefit of the doubt he will turn it around. It is a case of once is a happenstance, twice is a coincidence and three times is a pattern when it comes to Dixon. He needs three consecutive bad seasons before anyone can start saying he has lost it. 

As for Ericsson, he won twice and was second at Mid-Ohio, but those were his only top five finishes all season. He is consistent, but he can take another step and become a more serious contender. He has only led 55 laps in his IndyCar career, but 37 of those came at Nashville and Nashville is the only time he has led double-digit laps in a race. There is room for improvement, but if he does improve, Ganassi will have three serious title contenders. 

Next year will be year two of the Jimmie Johnson experiment. He has tested at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and he ran at Texas Motor Speedway. Ovals are more likely than ever before, but he could decide just to do Indianapolis. Ganassi is committing to a five-car program for May 2022, but will Johnson be at Texas in March or will Kanaan retain his oval-only roll and that fifth car will be for Johnson's only oval start.

Johnson might hold off and run road and street courses only again, but if Ganassi is committing to five cars, one of those are likely for him. He will be around for at least 12 races, but if Johnson is running Indianapolis, he should just run the entire schedule. It is one thing to be worried about Texas but Iowa and Gateway are not going to hurt him.

Kanaan is there if he needs to fill in. For Johnson, things should get better. I don't think he will be competing for top ten finishes on a regular basis, but with how 2021 ended, he should be on the lead lap more often and he could have a few breaks go his way and maybe pull out a few top fifteen finishes and possibly sneak into the top ten once or twice. 

If Johnson does contest oval races, expectations will be higher for those five races. He is coming from that background. We all remember what Kurt Busch did in the Indianapolis 500 going on eight years ago. Busch only did one race, and late accidents did elevate him in the closing laps to a higher position than he had run all day, but he brought the car home. It will not be easy, but Johnson should be more in his comfort zone. If he runs a full season, five good results could lift his championship finish by a few positions. 

Ganassi is going to be fine, but a keynote is next year will be ten years since the team's most recent Indianapolis 500 victory. It has won five championships since 2012 and it enters 2022 with consecutive titles. A third consecutive title would be accepted, but the team will be shooting for extra hardware.