With it being December, and 98% of motorsports in hibernation, this is the perfect time to complete some thought experiments that do not fit into a season.
After the IndyCar season, during my final IndyCar head-to-head league recap, I wondered how all the results broke down over the three years of tracking this mythical championship. How did each finishing position rank in terms of head-to-head results? With head-to-head results, there are 12 winners each week, but the winners can be all over the board. First and third could be winners but second and fourth could be losers. Simultaneously, 20th could be a winner, 23rd could even be a winner.
In the last three seasons, there have been 47 races, however, because of the pandemic and to keep things on schedule, we also had to incorporate some qualifying sessions to fill out a season, so there are 50 events over these three seasons. To be specific, there have been 47 races plus Texas qualifying in 2020, Indianapolis 500 qualifying in 2020 and Gateway qualifying in 2021 that have counted toward the head-to-head league results.
We are going to look over how each race position has fared during this head-to-head format. I wanted to know what positions produce proportionally more winners than losers and where does it flip in the field? There are certain positions that are near guaranteed for head-to-head victory, but at what point does it slip to 50/50 and the result is in question?
One note before we get started, while we are looking at 50 different sessions between races and qualifying, there will not be 50 results for every position. In the later races when there are playoffs, there are fewer head-to-head matchups and non-playoff participants. There are also races where a car is in the race that does not figure into the league format, such as one-off entries. Those one-off entries would not factor into the data.
There were also only 23 participants in the 2020 season because the #31 Carlin entry did not materialize and League Two only had seven participants that year.
We are going to go position-by-position, give the head-to-head record for each position and then a little breakdown about some of the results.
1st: 44-0 (100%)
Of course, if you win a race, you will likely win a head-to-head matchup. I don't know how you could win a race and lose a head-to-head matchup.
There have been a few races where the race winner was not a head-to-head winner because that entry was already eliminated from playoff contention. That was the case for the final three races in 2019 where Takuma Sato, Will Power and Colton Herta all won. It also happened for the second Harvest Grand Prix race in 2020 with Power. It was also the case for the final two races in 2021 with Herta winning both.
The only other race that did not feature a winner as a head-to-head winner was the 2021 Indianapolis 500 with Hélio Castroneves in the part-time Meyer Shank Racing entry.
There have been four head-to-head race winners who were League Two entries. The first two victories were Colton Herta, Austin 2019 and the second Mid-Ohio race in 2020. The other two victories were Marcus Ericsson this year in the first Belle Isle race and Nashville.
2nd: 41-3 (93.18%)
The only way for second to lose a head-to-head matchup is to the race winner and it has happened three times in three years.
The first was the 2019 Indianapolis 500, Simon Pagenaud over Alexander Rossi.
The next two both happened in 2020, and they were in consecutive races. Scott Dixon defeated Graham Rahal in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and in the next race Dixon won the first Road America race ahead of Will Power.
3rd: 38-6 (86.36%)
For third to lose, it can only lose to first or second.
Third was 13-1 in 2019. Its only loss was Texas with Josef Newgarden winning the race while Rahal was third.
In 2020, third was 12-3 with two "nose-to-tail" results, as in losing to the car directly ahead of us. The first was the second Road America race. Patricio O'Ward was second while Alexander Rossi was third. It happened at the Indianapolis 500 again with Dixon in second ahead of Rahal, another top three result where Rahal was a head-to-head lose. The final one was the championship matchup at St. Petersburg Newgarden won the race and the championship and Dixon was third.
Third went 13-2 in 2021. It lost nose-to-tail in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis with Romain Grosjean in second ahead of Álex Palou. It then happened at Mid-Ohio with Newgarden winning the race while Palou was third.
4th: 36-5 (87.804%)
For the next few entries, I am just giving the yearly record and losses.
2019: 11-4, fourth lost the first four races, three of which were nose to tail.
St. Petersburg: Will Power (3rd) def. Felix Rosenqvist
Austin: Newgarden (2nd) def. Rahal (another top finish loss for Rahal)
Barber: Sébastien Bourdais (3rd) def. Newgarden
Long Beach: Dixon (3rd) def. Rahal (We need to do a deep dive on the Graham Rahal results. He has lost four times while finishing in the top four).
2020: 11-1. The only loss was nose-to-tail, the first Harvest Grand Prix race: Rinus VeeKay over Colton Herta.
2021: 14-0! And it had its first nose-to-tail result in the August IMS road course race: Alexander Rossi def. O'Ward.
5th: 39-5 (88.636%)
2019: 15-1
Toronto: Pagenaud (1st) def. Rosenqvist
2020: 10-2.
Texas: Newgarden (3rd) def. Ed Carpenter
Iowa II: Newgarden (1st) def. Dixon
2021: 14-2.
Belle Isle II: Palou (3rd) def. Rahal (There is another Rahal loss while in the top five).
August IMS road course: Rossi (4th) def. O'Ward
6th: 35-5 (87.5%)
2019: 12-3
Barber: Rossi (5th) def. Hinchcliffe
Belle Isle II: Marcus Ericsson (2nd) def. Marco Andretti
Mid-Ohio: Rossi (5th) def. Pagenaud
2020: 13-0! But no nose-to-tail results.
2021: 10-2. No nose-to-tail results.
Barber: O'Ward (4th) def. VeeKay
Texas I: Palou (4th) def. Newgarden
Two of five losses were nose-to-tail results.
7th: 32-10 (76.19%)
2019: 9-7. Kind of makes sense.
Plus, two nose-to-tail losses.
St. Petersburg: James Hinchcliffe def. Simon Pagenaud.
Pocono: Ed Carpenter def. Bourdais.
But there was one nose-to-tail victory.
Iowa: Rossi def. Zach Veach.
2020: 12-0! I cannot explain it. This is the worst position to have a perfect season with at least seven results. Besides first place, the only other positions to have perfect seasons were sixth in 2020 (13-0), second in 2021 (15-0) and fourth in 2021 (14-0).
Seventh had one nose-to-tail victory this season: Mid-Ohio II: Power def. Newgarden.
2021: 11-3 with two nose-to-tail victories, and they were consecutive events.
August IMS road course race: Rahal def. Newgarden.
Gateway qualifying: Rossi def. Dixon
8th: 27-17 (61.36%)
This is where the records drop off. From here on down, no position has a head-to-head winning percentage greater 64%. Only six of the remaining 15 positions have a winning percentage above 50%.
Eighth still has respectable results, 10-6 in 2019, 9-5 in 2020 and 8-6 in 2021.
Its only nose-to-tail victory was the second Road America race in 2020: Sato def. Newgarden.
9th: 26-15 (63.41%)
This is the first position to have a losing season.
While ninth went 10-5 in 2019, it went 6-8 in 2020 but bounced back to be 10-2 in 2021.
Its only nose-to-tail victory was Gateway in 2021: Ericsson def. Harvey.
10th: 23-15 (60.52%)
Year one was not kind for tenth, going 5-5 in 2019, but it went 9-4 in 2020 with three nose-to-tail victories.
Iowa II: Andretti def. Kanaan
Indianapolis 500 qualifying: Herta def. Ericsson
Gateway I: Daly (in Carlin's #59 entry) def. Jack Harvey.
Tenth went 9-6 in 2021.
11th: 24-18 (57.14%)
Eleventh is interesting.
It was 9-5 in 2019, but dropped to 4-9 in 2020, however it bounced back to 11-4 in 2021.
Eleventh had two nose-to-tail victories in 2021:
Belle Isle II: Hunter-Reay def. Sato.
Mid-Ohio: Bourdais def. McLaughlin
12th: 22-20 (52.38%)
Twelfth has always been within two games of .500, going 8-6 in 2019, 7-6 in 2020 and 7-8 in 2021.
It has had one nose-to-tail victory in each of the three seasons.
2019 Toronto: Jones def. Veach
2020 Indianapolis 500: Rosenqvist def. Andretti
2021 Portland: Sato def. Power
13th: 15-27 (35.71%)
This is where things drop off, outside of one outlier. Nine of the remaining ten positions have winning percentages below 40%. While 2020 saw 13th go 8-5, it was 3-11 in 2019 and 4-11 in 2021.
Thirteenth's only nose-to-tail victory was at Nashville this past season: O'Ward def. Power.
14th: 17-27 (38.63%)
Fourteenth is the first position without a winning season with records of 4-11, 6-7 and 7-9.
It's only nose-to-tail result was a victory at Texas in 2020, Andretti def. Rossi.
15th: 21-20 (51.21%)
This is the final position with a winning record. It went 9-5 in 2019, 5-8 in 2020 and 7-7 in 2021.
It has twice won nose-to-tail results:
St. Petersburg 2019: Kanaan def. Chilton
Texas I 2021: Pietro Fittipaldi (in the #51 Coyne entry) def. Hunter-Reay.
16th: 13-29 (30.95%)
We drop over 20% points in record between 15th and 16th. It's best season was 2019 at 4-9 before dropping to 3-11 in 2020 and rising back to 6-10 this past season.
It's only nose-to-tail victory was at Long Beach in 2019, Ed Jones in the #20 ECR entry defeated Zach Veach.
17th: 15-27 (35.71%)
2019: 4-10
2020: 6-8
2021: 5-9
Both of 17th's nose-to-tail victories were in 2019.
Belle Isle II: Pagenaud def. Hinchcliffe.
Mid-Ohio: RC Enerson (in the #31 Carlin entry) def. Matheus Leist
18th: 10-28 (26.31%)
This is the final position with a winning percentage over 25%. It is also the point where we can start listing all the winners for each position.
2019: 4-7
Barber: Kanaan def. Herta (24th)
Grand Prix of Indianapolis: Chilton def. O'Ward (19th)
Toronto: Power def. Ericsson (20th)
Iowa: Herta def. Karam (22nd)
2020: 3-9
Road America I: Rosenqvist def. Rossi (19th)
Indianapolis 500: Kimball def. VeeKay (20th)
Mid-Ohio I: Pagenaud def. Andretti (23rd)
2021: 3-12
St. Petersburg: Hinchcliffe def. O'Ward (19th)
Indianapolis 500: Harvey def. Bourdais (26th)
Mid-Ohio: Chilton def. Jimmie Johnson (22nd)
19th: 7-32 (17.94%)
2019: 2-11
St. Petersburg: Sato def. Hunter-Reay (23rd)
Iowa: Carpenter def. Sato (20th)
2020: 1-13
Iowa I: VeeKay def. Herta (20th)
2021: 4-8
Grand Prix of Indianapolis: Bourdais def. Johnson (24th)
Belle Isle I: Scott McLaughlin def. Johnson (24th)
Belle Isle II: Harvey def. McLaughlin (20th)
Mid-Ohio: Harvey def. Kellett (21st)
20th: 6-34 (15%)
2019: 2-12
Road America: Leist def. Kanaan (21st)
Gateway: Dixon def. Power (22nd)
2020: 2-11
Texas: Rosenqvist def. Santino Ferrucci (21st)
Grand Prix of Indianapolis: Power def. Oliver Askew (26th)
2021: 2-12
St. Petersburg: Jones def. Rossi (21st)
Indianapolis 500: McLaughlin def. Dalton Kellett (23rd)
21st: 4-33 (10.81%)
This is the first position with a winless season. In 2019, 21st went 0-11.
This position went 2-11 in 2020 and 2021.
2020 Road America II: Askew def. Rahal (23rd)
2020 Harvest Grand Prix I: Bourdais def. Andretti (25th)
2021 Barber: Rosenqvist def. Newgarden (23rd)
2021 Indianapolis 500: Hinchcliffe def. Jones (28th)
22nd: 2-40 (4.76%)
After going 1-12 in 2019 and 1-14 in 2020, 22nd went 0-14 in 2021.
The victories:
2019 Grand Prix of Indianapolis: Rossi def. Ericsson (24th)
2020 Gateway II: Veach def. Ericsson (23rd). These were the bottom two finishers in the race.
23rd: 6-27 (18.18%)
After going 0-8 in 2019, 23rd went 2-9 in 2020, and the first time was one of the rare instances of last place getting a win.
Álex Palou was 23rd out of 23 starters in the Texas season opener but won. How? Well, his opponent failed to start the race, as Takuma Sato had a qualifying accident prevent him from starting the race. The other win for 23rd was Indianapolis 500 with Tony Kanaan was 23rd edging out Simon Pagenaud (25th).
In 2021, 23rd went 4-10.
St. Petersburg: Dalton Kellett (23rd) def. Max Chilton (24th)
Grand Prix of Indianapolis: Jack Harvey (23rd) def. Chilton (DNS)
Belle Isle I: Romain Grosjean (23rd) def. Rosenqvist (25th)
August IMS road course race: Scott McLaughlin (23rd) def. Kellett (26th)
24th: 0-19 (0%)
This was not a prominent position in the first two years, going 0-4 in 2019 and 0-1 in 2020, but it went 0-14 in 2021.
It has lost one nose-to-tail results:
St. Petersburg 2021: Kellett def. Chilton
25th: 0-11 (0%)
Only once was 25th featured in a head-to-head matchup in 2019. It had three losses in 2020. Twenty-fifth went 0-7 in 2021, and those seven results all came in consecutive events, from the Grand Prix of Indianapolis through Nashville. None of those losses have been nose-to-tail.
26th: 1-6 (16.667%)
Our worst head-to-head winner in three years this tracking was 26th and not only was it the worst result but it was also a nose-to-tail result, and it was not in the Indianapolis 500.
Jimmie Johnson was 26th at Nashville in August in the #48 Ganassi entry. Johnson was matched up with Sébastien Bourdais in that Raceway, who ended up finishing 27th in the #14 Foyt entry. A better encapsulation of a chaotic race.
27th: 0-8 (0%)
Eight times has a head-to-head competitor finished 27th and six of those happened this year!
Indianapolis: Felix Rosenqvist in the #7 AMSP.
Nashville: Sébastien Bourdais in the #14 Foyt, as mentioned above.
August IMS road course: Álex Palou in the #10 Ganassi.
Portland: James Hinchcliffe in the #29 Andretti.
Laguna Seca: Takuma Sato in the #30 RLLR
Long Beach: Patricio O'Ward in the #5 AMSP.
Those last three were all playoff matchups.
The other two results for 27th were both in the Indianapolis 500: Marco Andretti in the #98 Andretti in 2019 and Ed Carpenter in the #20 ECR entry last year.
28th: 0-3 (0%)
All of these were in the Indianapolis 500 and the losers were the #10 Ganassi (Felix Rosenqvist), the #55 Coyne (Álex Palou) and the #18 Coyne (Ed Jones).
29th: 0-3 (0%)
This is one where the losers were not in the Indianapolis 500 because Indianapolis 500 qualifying counted toward the league in 2020. Two have been Andretti Autosport drivers, Zach Veach in the #26 Andretti in 2019 and Alexander Rossi in the #27 Andretti this year. The other is Charlie Kimball in the #4 Foyt entry in 2020 Indianapolis 500 qualifying.
30th: 0-3 (0%)
Head-to-head league participants have a knack for finishing at the back of the Indianapolis 500. First, it was the #18 Coyne entry with Sébastien Bourdais, the #7 AMSP entry with Oliver Askew and Will Power in the #12 Penske entry.
31st: N/A
In three years of the league format, the 31st-place finisher in the Indianapolis 500 has not been a head-to-head league participant. Kyle Kaiser with Juncos Racing in 2019, Dalton Kellett in the #41 A.J. Foyt Racing in 2020 and Simona de Silvestro with Paretta Autosport this past year.
32nd: 0-2 (0%)
Each of the last two years has 32nd been a head-to-head loser.
Marcus Ericsson in 2020 and Graham Rahal in 2021.
33rd: 0-1 (0%)
The only time a league participant was last in the Indianapolis 500 was 2019 when Colton Herta broke down after three laps.
DNQ/DNS: 0-3 (0%)
If race winners are virtually guaranteed victory, those who failed to qualify and did not start are virtually guaranteed defeat. It has happened three in the three years of this format, and it has happened to the same entry twice
Max Chilton failed to qualify for the 2019 Indianapolis 500, assuring a loss for the #59 Carlin entry. Then it happened in 2020 when Takuma Sato had an accident in qualifying for the Texas season opener and was unable to start. In 2021, Chilton had a visa issue prevent him from arriving to the Grand Prix of Indianapolis in time and Carlin withdrew the #59 entry instead of fielding a substitute driver.
The Champion and the Relegated
One final thing I wanted to look at was where the head-to-head league champion ranked in the actual championships and where the relegated teams ranked in the actual championship.
Josef Newgarden has won the head-to-head championship in all three seasons. If that doesn't confirm Newgarden is one of the best around, I don't know what will.
In these three seasons, Newgarden was first, second and second in the actual championship. That lines up with expectations. You would believe the best drivers overall would also end up being the best in a fictional head-to-head championship format.
But what about the other finalists?
In 2019, the #20 Ed Carpenter Racing entry ended up in the final with a combination of Carpenter and Ed Jones. The #20 ECR entry scored 338 points, good for 14th in the entrants' championship, coincidentally directly ahead of the #21 ECR entry with Spencer Pigot by three points.
The 2020 head-to-head championship fight was between the two drivers in the actual championship fight. Newgarden vs. Dixon. Newgarden lost the actual championship but won the head-to-head championship. Dixon lost the head-to-head championship but won the actual championship.
Newgarden's opponent in the final was Patricio O'Ward, and O'Ward was third in the actual championship. Meanwhile, the actual champion Álex Palou was sixth in his conference and didn't even make the playoffs. Dixon was one of the other semifinalists this year and he was fourth in the championship while Sato took the last semifinal spot, and he was 11th.
As for the relegated, in 2019 it was the #26 Andretti entry with Zach Veach and the #21 ECR entry with Spencer Pigot. Those drivers were 18th and 14th in the championship receptively. Promoted that year were the #19 Coyne entry with Santino Ferrucci and the #14 Foyt entry with Tony Kanaan. Ferrucci was 13th in the championship and Kanaan was 15th.
In 2020, the #20 ECR entry went down, as did the #14 Foyt entry, two cars that ran multiple drivers. Those entries combined for 192 points and 216 points respectively. For perspective, Charlie Kimball was full-time and scored 218 points to end up 18th in the championship. Promoted were Colton Herta, who was third in the championship in the #88 Andretti Harding Steinbrenner Racing entry, and the #21 ECR entry bounced back with Rinus VeeKay, who was 14th in the championship.
With the addition of the promotion playoff this year, possibly three teams could go down and three did. The two automatic relegations were the #21 ECR entry with Rinus VeeKay, which has become our first yo-yo club in this experiment, and the other was the #7 AMSP entry with Felix Rosenqvist. VeeKay did miss one race due to injury, and Rosenqvist missed two. Those entries were 11th and 21st in the entrants' championship respectively.
James Hinchcliffe also lost in the promotion playoff, and he was relegated from League One. The #29 Andretti entry and Hinchcliffe were both 20th in their respective championships.
The automatic promotions went to Marcus Ericsson, sixth in the championship, and Jack Harvey, 13th in the championship. Scott McLaughlin defeated Hinchcliffe in the promotion playoff, lifting McLaughlin up to League One for 2022.
What does this all mean?
Frankly, not that much. If you finish at the front regularly, you are going to do well. The best drivers are the best drivers and there are some midfield drivers who inexplicably perform than the rest when paired against top opposition. That and if you are in League Two and finish somewhere between 13th and 15th in the championship, you are likely moving up.
It was fascinating to see how often nose-to-tail results happen and who has great finishes on the racetrack but have the head-to-head result go against them. Graham Rahal cannot get a break. Second through fifth have lost a combined 19 times. Rahal is responsible for six of them. No other driver has lost a head-to-head matchup while finishing in the top five more than twice.
It is fun to follow and a different way to look at a race.
