Monday, December 6, 2021

Musings From the Weekend: Long-Term Career Planning

Lewis Hamilton won the inaugural Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, the most irritating grand prix of the season, and possibly decade. Max Verstappen and Red Bull are failing when it comes to sportsmanship. Formula One has a slew of regulation issues and an ineffective race control. Meanwhile, the Jeddah circuit was possibly a step too far. Formula Two had a five-lap race, but it was a good Formula Two weekend for Antipodes. Speaking of Antipodes, wildlife might have won the weekend at Bathurst. Elsewhere, Kazuki Nakajima announced his retirement from full-time race. Jack Aitken will test for Ed Carpenter Racing at Sebring. Formula E had some testing in Valencia. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

Long-Term Career Planning
It is now December and most series are over. A few are hanging on, but in a little over a week everyone is going to be off and waiting until January. 

Some drivers will be changing jobs next year and be in new places. Others are staying put but know change will come soon. They just might not know where to go. 

That is understandable. There are plenty of driver who are not in the right fit now. Some are at a place because it is better than not having a job at all. Others know it is not working but don't know what the next step should be. Teams are in a similar boat. They don't know who to hire next that will raise the success of the organization. 

I look over the grids and there are drivers who need help for the future. Some drivers need to save their careers. Other drivers need a plan before heading into retirement. I will look at a handful of drivers in a handful of series, set a plan for the next few years of where they should aim to land that will be for their best. 

Erik Jones
Where he is at: Richard Petty Motorsports/GMS Racing
Where he should aim to be: Stewart-Haas Racing

Jones has been a man on the move for his entire NASCAR Cup career. First, he was in a second Furniture Row Racing entry, then he had a few years with Joe Gibbs Racing and last year he ended up at Richard Petty Motorsports. With RPM being bought out and GMS Racing taking over the #43 entry, I am not sure how long Jones will last. He isn't a GMS' driver of choice. 

But Jones has talent, more than most drivers in the Cup Series. He might have only won twice at Gibbs, but one of those was the Southern 500 in 2019 after a fierce battle with then-teammate Kyle Busch. Results were respectable, but that breakthrough never really came. With Christopher Bell moving up, Jones was pushed out at Gibbs. 

The numbers were not that impressive at RPM, but he did have six top ten finishes. He should have a long Cup career and he could be the steal for any team looking to strengthen its stable. 

Enter Stewart-Haas Racing. SHR won one race in 2021. Kevin Harvick is not getting any younger and he has at least two years left on his contract. Chase Briscoe is coming off his rookie season and Cole Custer finished his sophomore season. Aric Almirola might have won at Loudon, but he has plateaued in his Cup career. Almirola might be able to win when everything falls right, but he isn't a prime contender. 

Almirola had two top finishes and five top ten finishes in 2021. Jones had six top ten finishes, and Jones had a slightly better average finish at 19.7 to Almirola's 19.9. 

Jones is only 25 years old. We are seeing Hendrick Motorsports succeed with four drivers under 30. SHR could plan for its future with a Harvick-Jones-Briscoe-Custer team for at least 2023. Jones needs a team that will support him. At Gibbs, he was the fourth driver behind a strong veteran core. Hendrick isn't hiring. Penske isn't hiring. Stewart-Haas is the place where he could get the necessary attention and thrive. 

John Hunter Nemechek
Where he is at: Kyle Busch Motorsports in the NASCAR Truck Series
Where he should aim to be: 23XI Racing in the NASCAR Cup Series

Nemechek might have fallen short of the Truck championship in 2021, but he was the best driver in that series. He led with five victories and 12 top five finishes. On top of that, he won in the Grand National Series at Texas in October, and he was in the top ten of three of his five starts. 

He shouldn't be full-time in the Truck series. He should at least be in the Grand National Series, but he really should be back in Cup soon. This is a 24-year-old, who had bright spots in his one full Cup season, but there were plenty of blemishes driving for Front Row Motorsports. 

Front Row Motorsports didn't help Nemechek. It is a dictionary definition midfield team. There are a few days it could sneak into the top 15, but it has never been regularly at the front of the field. 

With 23XI Racing expanding to two cars in 2022, there will be one more Toyota on the grid and one more opportunity for Nemechek in the future, but 2023 might even be too soon. Kurt Busch joins the team in 2022, and Busch will not be a one-and-done driver. Bubba Wallace will also not be going anywhere. 

But as Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex, Jr. all get older, rides will become available. Even Kurt Busch will not be around forever. If Nemechek wins enough in Trucks and NASCAR's second division, he will make it hard to pass up. Unless he breaks records, I don't think Joe Gibbs Racing will call, and Gibbs has Ty Gibbs waiting in the wings, but 23XI Racing could develop into a respectable team. 

If Nemechek gets back to the Grand National Series full-time, win some races and compete for a championship, landing in the Cup Series with 23XI Racing would be a step in the right direction and it could be a competitive ride where Nemechek could stand out.

Jimmie Johnson
Where he is at: Chip Ganassi Racing (IndyCar)
Where he should aim to be: An LMDh that runs the IMSA Endurance Cup and/or FIA World Endurance Championship

Johnson is already at the end of his career, but he isn't done driving yet at 45 years old. He will enter his second year of his two-year IndyCar commitment next year. While a sampling of ovals could be on Johnson's plate, I don't think IndyCar is where his final days in a race car will be. 

The road course results are bad. We knew they wouldn't be good. He got better but was fighting for lead lap finishes. Johnson took a chance, more than most ever do. However, if he wants success his later years, he should look to sports cars. 

Johnson ran an IMSA Endurance Cup program this year with Action Express Racing and, alongside Simon Pagenaud and Kamui Kobayashi, the trio had respectable results. Sports car racing can get Johnson his fill while also being fulfilling. With Hypercar/LMDh convergence, the 24 Hours of Le Mans becomes a more likely possibility, and not just a race to start, but possibly even win overall. 

Johnson could race into his 50s in sports cars and he could experience more of the world. He could put together a ten-race program that keeps him in the IMSA endurance races, but also mixes in the world championship races and takes him to Le Mans, Spa-Francorchamps, Monza, Fuji and other venues. 

It could be ten races over ten months. He would still be home most of the time but also get to compete at a high level and possibly win some races. The IndyCar thing is fun, but sports cars offer Johnson a longer shelf life. 

Rinus VeeKay
Where he is at: Ed Carpenter Racing
Where he should aim to be: Arrow McLaren SP

VeeKay did win a race with Ed Carpenter Racing, and through two seasons VeeKay has been the best driver the organization has seen since Josef Newgarden, but how much more can ECR give him? 

Conor Daly never really matched VeeKay in the last two seasons. The 2021 season was a disastrous end for ECR. The team did not have a top ten finish in the final nine races. VeeKay is good and there could be more to him, but there has to be a question if ECR can have sustained success long-term. VeeKay is only 21 years old. There is a lot of career ahead of him. 

Enter Arrow McLaren SP. AMSP found its form in 2021. It won races with Patricio O'Ward and challenged for the championship. AMSP has big expectations and big plans for the future. 

With AMSP hoping to expand to three cars in the near future, its best option could already be in IndyCar and it could be VeeKay. The team is testing former Formula One drivers and other drivers from around the world, but VeeKay might make it easy for AMSP. 

VeeKay would strengthen the AMSP lineup. VeeKay is in better form than Rosenqvist. If Rosenqvist can turn it around, AMSP could have a three-headed monster no one sees coming. If Rosenqvist does not return to his rookie year output, AMSP could slide VeeKay in, add another driver and AMSP could solidly make it a Big Four in IndyCar and possibly move ahead of Andretti Autosport for the third best team. 

Pietro Fittipaldi
Where he is at: Haas F1 reserve driver
Where he should aim to be: Anywhere full-time

Fittipaldi won the 2017 World Series Formula V8 3.5 championship and then cobbled together an impressive schedule for any driver let alone a 22-year-old: a handful of IndyCar races, full-time in an LMP1 entry for the FIA World Endurance Championship and a full-time Super Formula ride. And he already had interest from Formula One teams. 

Then he broke both his leg in practice for the WEC season opener at Spa-Francorchamps. He was able to return for five IndyCar races at the end of the season. At the end of 2018, Haas F1 signed Fittipaldi as a test driver.

Since then, Fittipaldi ran a full season in Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters and he spent the winter of 2019/20 racing the F3 Asian Championship, but when it comes to a legitimate shot to compete for a series championship, he is mostly on the sideline. 

After finishing the F3 Asian season on February 23, he did not race again until the Sakhir Grand Prix on December 6, substituting for the injured Romain Grosjean. Fittipaldi made his second Formula One start the week later at Abu Dhabi. In 2021, he was back for three oval races in IndyCar filling in for Grosjean, contest the European Le Mans Series season opener at Barcelona, and he ran two Stock Car Brasil races. 

In four years, Fittipaldi has made 47 starts, 15 in a junior formula series, which he is beyond. He is better than sidelined at Haas. Haas isn't going to put him in a car full-time. He doesn't have manufacture support. He doesn't have billionaire support. But he would be a quality driver in many different series: IndyCar, IMSA's LMDh class, WEC Hypercar/LMDh entry, there are even GT drives that would greatly improve with Fittipaldi. 

At some point, he needs to live to the fullest of talent and leave behind Formula One for something greater than standing at the back of the garage. 

Antonio Fuoco
Where he is at: Cetilar Racing LMP2/GT3 entry
Where he should aim to be: Ferrari Le Mans Hypercar program

With the Ferrari Hypercar set to debut in 2023, it is likely there will be at least one Italian driving that car. In Fuoco's favor is he is currently Scuderia Ferrari's simulator driver. He has been a part of the organization since 2016.

Fuoco has spent much of the last three years on the sidelines. He competed one race in 2019, the Asian Le Mans Series season opener in November. His only start in 2020 was the GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup finale at Circuit Paul Ricard, where his team started on pole position before finishing seventh. 

This past year saw Fuoco go all-in on sports car racing. He competed in WEC's GTE-Am class and won at Portimão. He made his first 24 Hours of Daytona start and he competed in a complete GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup season with his best finish being fourth in the first two races. 

Fuoco is lined-up for a Ferrari Hypercar seat, and more sports car starts in 2022 should set him up for a dream chance in 2023. Fuoco is set for a 24 Hours of Daytona return in 2022 with Cetilar Racing, but in GT Daytona, not LMP2. Fuoco might have to take a longer road to the Hypercar program, and a Ferrari GTE seat is where he might have to start, but that should be another stepping stone to something greater. 

Giuliano Alesi
Where he is at: Team TOM's in Super Formula and Super Formula Lights, and arto Team Thailand in Super GT
Where he should aim to be: Haas F1

Alesi did not have the greatest results in Formula Two, but he won his share of races and scored plenty of points in GP3. He went to Japan and was second in the Super Formula Lights championship. He ended up running majority of the Super Formula season as Kazuki Nakajima was focused on the FIA World Endurance Championship. 

Alesi drove respectably in Super Formula and won a rain-shortened race in Autopolis. Rightfully, he will be full-time in Super Formula next year with the Team TOM's outfit. Over the last decade, Super Formula has become a good test ground for Formula One hopefuls. Pierre Gasly, Stoffel Vandoorne, Dan Ticktum and even Patricio O'Ward, in his brief stint as a Red Bull development driver, were sent to Super Formula for development. 

Currently unaffiliated to any grand prix team, Alesi could get to Formula One with impressive results. The last name helps, and he has a relationship with Ferrari, formerly participating in the Ferrari Driver Academy. 

Mick Schumacher isn't going to stay at Haas for long and Nikita Mazepin's long-term Formula One prospects are questionable. Someone will have to drive at Haas in the future, and with the team not hiring any Americans anytime soon, it wouldn't hurt to have a familiar name around. 

Nyck de Vries
Where he is at: Mercedes-EQ Formula E Team
Where he should aim to be: Mercedes-AMG F1 Team

Already a Mercedes driver, de Vries won the 2021 Formula E championship, and the Dutchman was in contention for the Williams F1 seat open for the 2022 season before Alex Albon took it, replacing the Mercedes-AMG bound George Russell. De Vries tested an IndyCar this past weekend, but he is a Formula Two champion. He has been competitive in sports car racing. 

IndyCar is nice, but de Vries can achieve greater. He is Formula One talent. Mercedes might sound high, but it is realistic. It might not be his first seat in Formula One, but it could be in his future. 

As stated before, he is already a Mercedes driver and Lewis Hamilton will retire sooner rather than later. Russell will be around for a while, but as for who will replace Hamilton One, no one is at the head of the line. Mercedes might already have its driver under its umbrella. De Vries is just as good option as any out there. 

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Lewis Hamilton, but did you know...

Chaz Mostert and Lee Holdsworth won the Bathurst 1000 in the #25 Walkinshaw Andretti United Holden. It was Mostert's second Bathurst 1000 victory, and it was Holdsworth's first Supercars victory since April 5, 2014.

Marcus Armstrong won the first FIA Formula Two race from Saudi Arabia while Oscar Piastri won the second two races of the weekend.

Coming Up This Weekend
Formula One season finale from Abu Dhabi.
Formula Two season finale from Abu Dhabi.