Thursday, May 12, 2022

Track Walk: Ninth Grand Prix of Indianapolis

The fifth round of the 2022 NTT IndyCar Series season will be the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, which is returning for its ninth edition. With 27 cars entered, this will be the largest Grand Prix of Indianapolis field. Juan Pablo Montoya returns for his first race of the season driving the #6 Lucas Oil Chevrolet for Arrow McLaren SP. It is one of two races on Montoya's IndyCar schedule, as he will also attempt the Indianapolis 500 later this month. In two of the previous eight years has the Grand Prix of Indianapolis winner gone on to win the Indianapolis 500. 

Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 3:00 p.m. ET on Saturday May 14 with green flag scheduled for 3:20 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Marty Snider, Kevin Lee and Dillon Welch will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
First Practice: 9:30 a.m. ET (60 minutes)
Second Practice: 12:45 p.m. ET (60 minutes)
Qualifying: 4:00 p.m. ET 
Saturday:
Warm-Up: 10:30 a.m. ET (30 minutes)
Race: 3:20 p.m. ET (85 laps)

* - All sessions will be available live on Peacock

Honda's Drought
The first four races have seen Chevrolet take each victory and for the first time since the summer of 2017, Honda has gone at least four IndyCar races without a victory. 

The scoreboard could very easily read differently, but the races have played out for the Bowtie Brigade and the numbers suggest these have all been well earned victories. Chevrolet has led 412 of 523 laps completed through four races. Chevrolet has won pole position in three races, and in each of those three races it has swept the front row. Chevrolet has had multiple podium finishes in three of the first four races in 2022

With all this success, Chevrolet has four of the top five drivers in the championship. 

But not all hope is lost for Honda. That one non-Chevrolet driver in the championship top five is championship leader Álex Palou. Palou has been on the podium in three of four races, the most this IndyCar season and his worst finish is seventh. Palou has also led laps in three of four races, and the Spaniard has scored fastest lap in the last two races. 

A few chain of events going differently very well could see Honda with at least one, if not two victories under its belt. Honda led 51 of 85 laps at Long Beach, but Colton Herta hitting the barrier while running third and Palou being passed during the final pit cycle when Josef Newgarden emerged from the pit lane ahead of the Spaniard. At Barber, Herta was showing great pace on the three-stop strategy before the only caution snuffed out Herta's speed. Herta was running strong afterward and was looking at a top five finish before spinning in turn five. Palou again charged late in second position, but was unable to catch Patricio O'Ward. 

Honda's success has been all a little one-sided. Palou has three podium finishes, Marcus Ericsson has one, as dos Romain Grosjean. The next best Honda driver in the championship is Scott Dixon in sixth, on 113 points and 31 markers behind his teammate. Grosjean is eighth in the championship, 43 points back. Honda drivers occupy eighth through 15th in the championship, but of the 11 drivers from 16th to 26th in the championship, seven are Chevrolet drivers.

Another mark between the manufactures is 11 Honda drivers have scored a top ten finish this season while only seven Chevrolet drivers have a top ten result. However, five of those seven Chevrolet drivers have stood on a podium while only three Honda drivers have appeared on the podium. 

Andretti Autosport has that runner-up result at Long Beach with Grosjean, but the team has only three top five finishes from the first four races. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing has no top five finishes and its best finish is seventh. Meyer Shank Racing has not top five finishes and its best finish is eighth. Dale Coyne Racing's best result is tenth.

Honda last went five races without a victory from Iowa through Gateway in 2017. This is the first time Honda has failed to win four consecutive to open a season since 2016 when Chevrolet won the first five races. 

The bad news for Honda is Chevrolet has dominated the IMS road course. Chevrolet has won the last five IMS road course races and it has won nine of 11 IMS road course races. Hondas only victories were the inaugural Grand Prix of Indianapolis in 2014 with Simon Pagenaud, and the 2020 Grand Prix of Indianapolis with Scott Dixon. 

Open Championship
We have made it through the first four races of the season and there have been three different championship leaders. Scott McLaughlin led off the jump at St. Petersburg, held on after his runner-up result at Texas, Josef Newgarden took over the top spot after his second consecutive victory at Long Beach, and now Palou leads with three podium finishes and a seventh through four events. 

This is the first time there have been at least three different championship leaders through four race since 2018 and it is only the fourth time since reunification there have been at least three different championship leaders through four races. This is only the fifth time in 15 seasons the championship lead has changed multiple times within the first four races. In five of those 15 seasons, there had been no championship lead changes through the first four races.

It is also important to lead early. In eight of the previous 14 seasons the eventually championship did lead the championship after at least one of the first four races. In three of the six years where the championship had not led after one of the first four races, Scott Dixon ended up winning the championship. 

Entering the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, any of the top eight of the championship could leave this weekend in the top spot. Only ten points cover the top four drivers, Palou and the three Penske drivers. There is then a drop-off between the top four and Patricio O'Ward in fifth. O'Ward is 30 points being Palou after his Barber victory. Scott Dixon is 31 points back with Rinus VeeKay trailing by 38 points. Romain Grosjean mathematically has a chance of being the championship leader after this race. Grosjean is 43 points back, but the only way he could become the championship leader is with a victory and Palou finishing at least 22nd or worse. 

Should someone other than McLaughlin, Newgarden or Palou lead the championship after the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, it would be the first time four different drivers would have led the championship at some point over the first five races in a season since 2013. In that season James Hinchcliffe, Hélio Castroneves, Takuma Sato and Marco Andretti each held the championship at one point through the first five races. The only other time that has happened since reunification was 2009 when Ryan Briscoe, Dario Franchitti, Tony Kanaan and Scott Dixon had each led the championship at some point over the first five races, and the championship lead actually changed hands after each of the first five races that season. 

Team Penske's Playground
Roger Penske has own Indianapolis Motor Speedway for a little over two years, but long before Penske official collected the deed from the Hulman-George family, his team ruled the track at the corner of 16th & Georgetown. Ever since the Grand Prix of Indianapolis was added to the IndyCar schedule, that dominance has been further cemented. 

Team Penske has won the Grand Prix of Indianapolis five times out of a possible eight. In 11 IndyCar races on the IMS road course, Penske has won eight of them. 

Will Power is the all-time leader with five victories on the road course alone after his victory in the August road course race held during the IndyCar/NASCAR companion weekend. Power has completed all 911 laps run in the 11 IndyCar races. He has led 341 laps and in each of his five victories he has led at least 56 laps. Power has also won five pole positions on the IMS road course, the most among all drivers, and he has won from four of those pole positions. 

Among drivers with at least three IMS road course starts, Power has the best average finish at 6.9. 

Josef Newgarden had a rough time on the IMS road course the first handful of years, but he has finished in the top ten of five consecutive races on this circuit after having no top ten finishes in his first six starts. He won the first Harvest Grand Prix race in 2020. Newgarden might not have the perfect record like Power, but Newgarden has completed 908 of 911 laps in 11 IMS road course starts, and he has nine consecutive lead lap finishes here. 

Scott McLaughlin is still learning the IMS road course. The two races on the circuit were McLaughlin's first at the circuit. The 2021 Grand Prix of Indianapolis went well for the New Zealander. He qualified fifth, his first Fast Six appearance, and he ended up eighth. In August, results were much worse. McLaughlin qualified 21st and finished 23rd, still the worst finish of his IndyCar career. 

The three Penske drivers are second, third and fourth in the championship with McLaughlin leading the way on 141 points, six ahead of Newgarden and seven ahead of Power. Each driver has been the top finisher at least once this season, with Newgarden's two victories having him top the intra-team battle. In qualifying, McLaughlin has led the team in three of four races, and in each of those races he has started in the top five. Out of a possible 12 top ten starting positions through four races, Penske has had 11 top ten starting position with Power's 19th at Barber being the lone exception. 

Possible First-Time Winners
Last year, Rinus VeeKay scored his first career IndyCar victory in somewhat surprising fashion. VeeKay became the third first-time winner in the first five races of the 2021 season with that victory. We already have one first-time winner in 2022, and there are plenty of drivers itching for that maiden triumph, 11 drivers to be accurate.

Leading the group into the Grand Prix of Indianapolis is a gentleman with an average finish of second on the IMS road course. It is Romain Grosjean. The Frenchman opened this weekend last year with a memorable pole position and the fairy tale felt to be in full force. Grosjean led 44 laps last year before losing the lead after difficulties navigating traffic. In the summer IMS road course race, Grosjean started third and spent the entire race toward the front before a late pass on Colton Herta to take second. 

Christian Lundgaard returns to the location of his IndyCar debut last August. The Dane qualified an unexpected fourth and the team said they left speed on the table in the form of a fresh set of unused tires. Lundgaard lost time on the primary compound but still finished 12th. Though looking for a first career victory, Lundgaard is still looking for his first career top ten finish. His best result was 11th at St. Petersburg in February. 

Jimmie Johnson returns to the location of his first lead lap finish in IndyCar. Johnson completed all 85 laps run in the IMS road course race last August. He closed 2021 with three lead lap finishes in the final four races. Through the first four races of 2022, Johnson has one lead lap finish, which was at Texas.

Conor Daly will make his 85th IndyCar start this weekend and Daly is the most experienced driver on the grid without a victory. A victory this weekend would tie Daly with Alex Tagliani for seventh most starts before a first career victory. Daly was sixth in his first IMS road course start in 2016. He has yet to have a top ten finish in his last six starts on this circuit. 

Kyle Kirkwood and David Malukas have each on the IMS road course in Road to Indy competition. Kirkwood won the second race of the 2018 U.S. F2000 weekend while Malukas won the second race in last year's Indy Lights weekend.

It has been three years since Jack Harvey's first career IndyCar podium finish came in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. He has three top ten finishes in the last four IMS road course races. Callum Ilott carried Juncos Hollinger Racing to the second round of qualifying at Barber for the first time in the team's history.  Juncos Hollinger Racing has ten Road to Indy victories on the IMS road course, including with Rinus VeeKay in Indy Lights in 2019.

Devlin DeFrancesco got his best finish in IndyCar at Barber with a 17th-place result. Dalton Kellett's best finish in five IMS road course starts is 20th. Tatiana Calderón has never raced on the IMS road course.

Road to Indy
All three Road to Indy series are back in action after returning to competition two weeks ago at Barber Motorsports Park.

Linus Lundqvist held off Benjamin Pedersen on a drying track at Barber to score his first victory of the season. The victory puts Lundqvist on top of the championship with 89 points, nine clear of Pedersen who has finished runner-up in the first two races of the season. Matthew Brabham was seventh at Barber and dropped to third in the championship, 12 points behind Lundqvist. Sting Ray Robb scored his first Indy Lights podium at Barber and he trails Lundqvist by 22 points. Danial Frost rounds out the top five on 62 points.

Four points covers sixth to tenth in the championship. Ernie Francis, Jr. has 50 points, one ahead of Kyffin Simpson, two more than Manuel Suliamán and Jacob Abel and four more than Antonio Serravalle. Christian Rasmussen finds himself 49 points behind Lundqvist after failing to score a top ten finish in the first two races of season. 

Christian Bogle has 38 points, two more than Hunter McElrea who is still looking for his first top ten finish of the season, and James Roe, Jr. is on 34 points. 

Lundqvist won race one on the IMS road course last year. Rasmussen won two of three races in Indy Pro 2000. Sting Ray Robb swept the three Indy Pro 2000 races on the IMS road course in 2020. 

This is the first of three doubleheader weekends for Indy Lights this season. Race one will be at 5:30 p.m. ET on Friday May 13. Race two will be at 1:15 p.m. ET on Saturday May 14. 

Nolan Siegel is still on top in Indy Pro 2000 after he picked up his second victory of the season at Barber. Siegel has 96 points, five clear of Louis Foster, who has been on the podium after three of four races and whose worst finish is fourth. Braden Eves has finished in top five of all four races this season and has 83 points. Reece Gold won the first Barber race and has 74 points, tied with Enaam Ahmed, who has two podium finishes. 

Josh Green has fallen to sixth in the championship with 72 points. He was sixth in both Barber races and has not finished in the top five since his victory in the St. Petersburg season opener. Kiko Porto has 61 points, 11 ahead of Colin Kaminsky, who was second to Gold in the first Barber race. Jack William Miller has 47 points while Wyatt Brichacek and Yuven Sundaramoorthy are tied on 43 points for tenth. 

It is a triple-header weekend for Indy Pro 2000 at the IMS road course. The series will race at 2:45 p.m. ET on Friday May 13 and twice on Saturday May 14, at 9:10 a.m. and 12:10 p.m. 

U.S. F2000 will also have a triple-header this weekend. 

Myles Rowe has won twice this season and holds the championship lead on tiebreaker over Michael d'Orlando, who has finished fourth or better in all four races this season. Jagger Jones won the second Barber race, and he has 78 points, eight fewer than Rowe and d'Orlando. Jace Denmark dropped to fourth in the championship after failing to pick up a top ten at Barber. Denmark has 70 points, tied with Billy Frazer, who was second to Rowe in the first Barber race.

Simon Sikes has finished fifth in three races this season and is 24 points off the championship lead. Bijoy Garg has 58 points, three more than Christian Weir, who was third from pole position in the second Barber race. Thomas Nepveu was sixth in both Barber races and has 53 points. Nicky Hays rounds out the top ten with 46 points. 

Race one for U.S. F2000 will be at 11:45 a.m. ET on Friday May 13. On Saturday May 14, U.S. F2000 will race at 8:05 a.m. and 11:15 a.m.

Fast Facts
This will be the second IndyCar race held on May 14 and first since Simon Pagenaud won the Grand Prix of Indianapolis in 2016. 

Will Power has six victories at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, tied for the third most all-time with Louis Chevrolet, Joe Dawson, Eddie Hearne and Kyle Busch. 

Hélio Castroneves or Simon Pagenaud could become the 14th competitor with at least five victory at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. 

The reigning Indianapolis 500 winner has never won the Grand Prix of Indianapolis the following season. 

Eight drivers have won on both the oval and road course at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. They are Alex Lloyd, Jack Harvey, Dean Stoneman, Colton Herta, Will Power, Simon Pagenaud, Scott Dixon and Josef Newgarden.

A list of possible drivers who could become the ninth driver to win on both the oval and road course at Indianapolis Motor Speedway this weekend are Hélio Castroneves, Alexander Rossi, Takuma Sato, and Jimmie Johnson. 

Last year, Rinus VeeKay became the first driver to win on the IMS road course in Indy Lights and IndyCar. Jack Harvey, Colton Herta or David Malukas could become the second driver to complete that achievement.

Patricio O'Ward could become the first driver to win on the IMS road course in Indy Pro 2000 and IndyCar. 

Kyle Kirkwood could become the first driver to win on the IMS road course in U.S. F2000 and IndyCar.

Two of the last three IMS road course races had all three podium finishers start in the top five. That had not happened in any of the first eight IMS road course races.

The average starting position for an IMS road course race winner is 3.1818 with a median of second. 

The worst starting position for an IMS road course race winner is eighth.

Seven of 11 IMS road course races have been won from the front row. 

The average number of lead changes in an IMS road course race is 8.545 with a median of ten. 

Six of 11 IMS road course races have had ten lead changes or greater. Nine of 11 IMS road course races have had five lead changes or greater.

The average number of cautions in an IMS road course race is 1.454 with a median of one. The average number of caution laps is 5.727 with a median of four. 

The most cautions in an IMS road course race was four in the inaugural Grand Prix of Indianapolis. 

Predictions
Colton Herta gets Andretti Autosport its first victory on the IMS road course. Multiple American drivers will finish on the podium. There will be a new championship leader, but Álex Palou will not lose his engine in this race. Scott McLaughlin will be the worst finishing Penske driver. Conor Daly will not go off course while running in the top ten. Jimmie Johnson will not be noticed when being lapped. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing will not have a Fast Six participant, but Christian Lundgaard will have his best starting position of the season. Kyle Kirkwood will not have a pit stop that lasts greater than 30 seconds. Sleeper: Simon Pagenaud.