Thursday, May 5, 2022

Will the Youth Movement Ever Conquer Mount "500"?

The average age of IndyCar's podium at Barber Motorsports Park was 22.667 years old. Drivers in their 20s have won five of the last seven IndyCar races. IndyCar's youth movement burst on the scene last season. Over half the winners in 2021 were in their 20s. Even the "old guard" isn't that old. Josef Newgarden is only 31. But as we reach another month of May and another fortnight of on-track sessions at Indianapolis Motor Speedway are staring us straight in the face, we reach a familiar topic of conversation.

Troy Ruttman has held the record for youngest Indianapolis 500 winner for the last 70 years. Only three men have held the record: the inaugural winner Ray Harroun, the second winner Joe Dawson and Ruttman.

Dawson held the record for 40 years until Ruttman's victory in 1952 after Bill Vukovich broke down from the lead with nine laps to go. Ruttman was 22 years and 80 days old that Friday afternoon, 8,116 days old to be more specific 

For most of those 70 years, Ruttman's record went unchallenged. There wasn't a possible younger winner until the 1968 race when Mike Mosley made his Indianapolis 500 debut at 21 years, five months and 17 days old. There wouldn't be another threat until Spike Gehlhausen in 1976. Other than a brief spat at the start of the 1980s, Ruttman's record was relatively safe.

The 21st century has brought us the expectation of a challenger to Ruttman's record. Only twice in the 21st century has a new youngest winner not be possible on race morning. The first year was 2011 and the other was 2017. In 2017, Sage Karam missed out on possibly being the youngest winner by five days. While we have expected a challenger, we have also been expecting a new record. 

Motorsports has become increasingly younger over the last 20 years let alone since 1952. Teenage drivers are a regular thing. Strict convictions over inexperience and the removal of restrictions due to tobacco sponsorship have opened the garage area. Junior series drivers can be minors, preparing for top level of motorsports at an age when previous generations would have to compete on less prestigious stages where cigarette signage was not on display. 

We have gotten younger drivers, younger winners and younger champions in nearly every series, but the Indianapolis 500's youngest winner remains unchanged. There have been 54 attempts at Ruttman's record. All have come up empty. There will likely be four more this year. This will be the final chance for one notable challenger who has already won multiple IndyCar races. A few of this youthful generation are already out of contention. 

It has been an eclectic list of possible youngest winners over the previous 70 years. From the earliest challengers of Mosley and Gehlhausen, to future champions in the 1980s of Michael Andretti and Al Unser, Jr. Even Michel Jourdain, Jr. and J.J. Yeley had cracks at it. 

There haven't been a lack of worthy contestants in the 21st century. Sam Hornish, Jr. had two shots at it. Sarah Fisher had three. Tomas Scheckter was about 27 laps away from the record in 2002. Marco Andretti had four shots at it but was never closer than his debut, when he fell 0.0635 seconds short when Hornish of all people passed him on the final lap. Graham Rahal had three attempts, so did Mario Moraes! Simona de Silvestro had a chance, as did Josef Newgarden and Conor Daly. The aforementioned Karam had three chances and the calendar didn't play into his favor for a fourth.

Patricio O'Ward aged out after last year's race. A victory in 2022 would make O'Ward the third youngest winner. Álex Palou never had a chance, debuting at Indianapolis at 23 years old. Santino Ferrucci had a chance in 2019, and the delayed 2020 race fell five days too late for Ferrucci to have a second chance at the record.

This will be Colton Herta's fourth and final attempt. Much hope was put in Herta after qualifying fifth on debut. He started second last year, but in his first three attempts Herta hasn't really given Ruttman a reason to sweat from the great beyond. 

This will also be Rinus VeeKay's final shot. The Dutch driver has qualified fourth and third in his first two years. A pit lane mistake took him out in 2020. He wasn't much of a factor last year.

David Malukas and Christian Lundgaard are tentatively set to be the other two challengers this year. They will each get a second shot in 2023 if they so choose to pursue it. There will other possible record breakers in the future, but what will it take for any of them to top something that has stood for seven decades?

Recent results suggest the Indianapolis 500 is an old man's game. Since reunification, only two of 14 Indianapolis 500s have had a winner under the age of 30: Scott Dixon in 2008 and Alexander Rossi in 2016. Nine of those 14 races have had a winner at least 35 years of age. A driver in their 40s has won three of the last five years. Since reunification, 12 of 14 winners were making at least their sixth Indianapolis 500 start. The exceptions are the ever-memorable rookie winner in Rossi, and Juan Pablo Montoya, whose 2015 victory was his third Indianapolis 500 start, but it had been 15 years since Montoya won as a rookie in 2000.

Ruttman won in his fourth Indianapolis 500 start in 1952. Since then, the average Indianapolis 500 start number for an Indianapolis 500 winner is 7.97. In the 54 record attempts, the average finish for these drivers is 19.203. Only five of these 54 drivers scored a top five finish. Only 14 of the 54 finished in the top ten. 

Herta will be making his fourth Indianapolis 500 start his year. The last driver to win in a fourth Indianapolis 500 start was Gil de Ferran in 2003, albeit de Ferran was 35 years old and already a two-time champion when he made his fourth "500" start. The Split kept him from running at Indianapolis from 1996 through 2000. But there have been plenty of winners in their fourth start. A.J. Foyt's first Indianapolis 500 victory was in his fourth start. Mark Donohue won in his fourth start. Buddy Lazier's victory was in his fourth start. Bill Vukovich's second victory was in his fourth start. Then there was Ruttman.

Besides Ruttman, five of the other top ten youngest winners all came in 1930 or earlier. Even if the youngest winner does not occur this year, we could see a generation of younger winners that has not been seen in over 15 years. The Indianapolis 500 has not had consecutive winners in their 20s since Buddy Rice, Dan Wheldon and Sam Hornish, Jr. won. 

Palou and O'Ward were second and fourth respectively in last year's race. Herta has the ability. VeeKay has shown the speed. There are Malukas and Lundgaard, but there are also Kyle Kirkwood, Callum Ilott and Ferrucci. The final three of those drivers could all become one of the five youngest winners in Indianapolis 500 history. 

Testing results suggests the old guard is not ready to give up that easy. Newgarden topped the two-day test last month, but Takuma Sato was second ahead of Tony Kanaan and Scott Dixon. Scott McLaughlin was fifth, but Marco Andretti was sixth and Andretti is looking to make his 17th Indianapolis 500 start this year. Then Palou was seventh. 

Indianapolis is not an easy race to win. There are the few drivers who show up and nail it, but those drivers are rare. With the lack of ovals on the IndyCar schedule and with the Freedom 100 no longer taking place, it will only get harder for a young driver to win this race. Experience is going to be favored. But there could be that one special driver where it clicks at a young age. There are power in numbers. The more drivers starting that are aged 22 years and 79 days or younger the more likely one will break the record. 

This will be the fifth consecutive year with at least three possible youngest winners, and 2022 will be the second time with four drivers who could get the record. It is unlikely we will have eight or ten drivers in this position, but there are enough drivers out there. The attempts will continue coming. 

Even if Ruttman's record remains intact, the next generation is here, and it will not be long until they are celebrating at the end of each May.