Wednesday, May 11, 2022

2022 Supercross Season Review

After a disrupted 2020 season and a pandemic-altered 2021 season, AMA Supercross was back to normal in 2022. The championship toured the country, heading from coast-to-coast and returning to stadiums that had gone in some cases over three years between Supercross events. 

Though the calendar looked familiar, the field was shaken up with many riders on new bikes. The season opened with four different winners, but there were only three different winners in the final 13 races and only one of those three was a new winner. The championship wasn't particularly close despite what the final standings said, but we did see two impressive seasons from riders in new outfits.

1. Eli Tomac: #3 Monster Energy Yamaha YZ450F (359 points)
Victories: 7
Podium Finishes: 11
What did I write: "New team, new expectations. After a successful stint with Kawasaki, Tomac's shift to Yamaha shocks the Supercross system. Yamaha hasn't been a regular challenger for the last few seasons, but it made progress in 2021, and had a great Motocross season last summer. Tomac could lift Yamaha to a contender for race victories, or the combination could struggle a bit and have a few good races. Tomac is a champion, but if he finishes third with a few victories again I would consider that a successful season."

How wrong was it: Tomac did better than third with a few victories. He was champion and joint leader in race victories. There was no adjustment period for Tomac. He joined Yamaha at the right time, and he was hands down the best rider this season. I cannot say he stayed completely healthy because Tomac did miss the finale after tweaking his MCL, but Tomac didn't put a wheel wrong. His worst finish was seventh and that came when all he needed was consistent top ten finishes in the final races of the season. It could have been a different season if a rider or two remained healthy, but Tomac was not going to be stopped.

2. Jason Anderson: #21 Monster Energy Kawasaki KX450 (350 points)
Victories: 7
Podium Finishes: 10
What did I write: "We have seen the best of Anderson. He is a consistent rider who keeps his nose clean and gets results, but Supercross is rising to a higher level and Anderson's consistency will not win him a championship like it did in 2018. He will be somewhere between sixth and tenth in the championship and could get on the podium a few times."

How wrong was it: We had not seen the best of Anderson because Anderson went out and won seven races and had a chance at a second championship. Tomac missing the final race of the season flatters Anderson in terms of championship margin, but the title swung when Anderson crashed out in Detroit. It left him 21st and it was Tomac's third consecutive victory. At that point Tomac's championship lead expanded to well over one race victory and Anderson was never going to chase him down. If Anderson stays on the bike in Detroit, he could have made a real good for it, but this was still an impressive year.

3. Malcolm Stewart: #27 Rockstar Energy Husqvarna FC450 RE (314 points)
Victories: 0
Podium Finishes: 3
What did I write: "This is a big shift, as Stewart moves from Yamaha to Husqvarna. Stewart should be leading this team, but I am not sure he can get back to sixth in the championship. Unfortunately, it looks like Stewart is leaving Yamaha as it is ascending and joining Husqvarna when it is going through a dip. He should pull out a few top ten results, but his goal should be beating Wilson and also the man he is replacing Anderson in the championship."

How wrong was it: Stewart exceeded sixth in the championship, ending up third and top Husqvarna rider. He had a few strong races, but never really challenged for a race victory. He was in the top ten of every race and had 13 top five finishes. It could have been slightly better, but overall, a good year for Stewart.

4. Justin Barcia: #51 Troy Lee Designs/Red Bull Gas Gas MC 450F (312 points)
Victories: 0
Podium Finishes: 6
What did I write: "Barcia was the surprise of 2021. I don't think anyone expected him to win at all, let alone the season opener on a new manufacture. Barcia will drop a little in the championship. I don't think he will fall out of the top ten, but I expect fewer top five finishes."

How wrong was it: Barcia remained fourth and he actually scored 11 top five finishes, one more than 2021. He was in the top ten of every race. It was a consistent season. I don't feel like a victory slipped away from him. He was pretty equal to Stewart's record and the two couldn't get much closer than they were at the Salt Lake City finale.

5. Marvin Musquin: #25 Red Bull KTM 450SX-F Factory Edition (305 points)
Victories: 1
Podium Finishes: 6
What did I write: "Musquin has been on the decline for a few seasons. After it appeared he would carry KTM after Ryan Dungey's retirement, Musquin has not met those expectations. If he is healthy, he should finish somewhere in the top ten of the championship, but I don't think he will be winning races or pushing for the championship."

How wrong was it: Musquin didn't push for the championship, but he did win in St. Louis, the final Triple Crown race of the season. This was one of Musquin's better seasons in recent memory. He had ten top five finishes, and he carried KTM this year. 

6. Chase Sexton: #23 Honda CRF450R (292 points)
Victories: 1
Podium Finishes: 8
What did I write: "Sexton had a few close calls for victory last season, and he should breakthrough in 2022. It is a matter of staying healthy. He should push for a top five championship finish."

How wrong was it: Sexton did win race, and he won early in the third round of the season at San Diego, but Sexton had a few bad results. He was knocked out of Detroit after a collision with Cooper Webb and then missed Seattle after a qualifying accident, but he ended strong with five consecutive podium results. If he ran Seattle, he likely gets inside the top five. But there is still room for improvement to be a championship hopeful.

7. Cooper Webb: #1 Red Bull KTM 450SX-F Factory Edition (278 points)
Victories: 0
Podium Finishes: 4
What did I write: "After winning the championship two of the last three seasons, expectations will be he can do it again. In 2020, Webb had a slow start, but ended strong and finished second in the championship. In Webb's favor is many of his competitors have switched teams and there are many unknowns. His rivals could experience growing pains, allowing Webb to remain on top."

How wrong was it: Webb didn't benefit from all the changes around him. He was frequently outside the top five with only seven top five results from 17 races. Outside of the Anaheim season opener and Daytona, Webb was not in contention for victory often. And to think Webb was seventh in the championship with a handful of key riders out injured. This season was worse than it looked.

8. Brandon Hartranft: #41 Twisted Tea/H.E.P. Motorsports Suzuki RM-Z450 (178 points)
Victories: 0
Podium Finishes: 0
Best Finish: 8th (twice)
What did I write: "About the same as 2021. Some main events made, other missed, not much to brag about."
How wrong was it: Somebody had to fill the void with all these riders out and Hartranft ended up eighth in the championship despite not having a top ten finish until the tenth round of the season. He did make every main event and ended the year with five top ten results. He raced who was out there and earned these results. Good for Hartranft.

9. Justin Brayton: #10 Smartop/Bullfrog Spas/Motoconcepts Honda CRF450R (176 points)
Victories: 0
Podium Finishes: 0
Best Finish: 5th
What did I write: "This will be Brayton's final Supercross season. He turns 38 years old in March. He could sneak into the top ten of the championship, but I think those results will be hard to come by. He should have a few stand out races."

How wrong was it: Brayton did sneak into the top ten of the championship and this was despite missing three races. His fifth at Detroit was his best race. He ended with a good result in Salt Lake City. It might not have been the perfect swan song, but Brayton was respectable in his final season, and he will be missed. 

10. Dean Wilson: #15 Rockstar Energy Husqvarna FC450 RE (152 points)
Victories: 0
Podium Finishes: 0
Best Finish: 7th (twice)
What did I write: "With Anderson is leaving for Yamaha and Zach Osborne retiring, Wilson is the veteran leader at Husqvarna. However, I am not sure Wilson can get back into the top ten of the championship when looking at the depth of the field."

How wrong was it: Wilson clung onto the top ten in the championship despite missing the final four races due to a laceration suffered at the St. Louis race. This might be the best encapsulation of the 2022 season in terms of injuries. Wilson had seven top ten finishes and missed the final four races but had done enough to earn tenth in the championship. Insane.

11. Dylan Ferrandis: #14 Monster Energy Yamaha YZ450F (141 points)
Victories: 0
Podium Finishes: 1
What did I write: "After winning the Motocross championship, expectations increase for Ferrandis. His Supercross season was good last year. He has a challenge within his own team, but after thoroughly dominating the Motocross season, he can't be flat to start 2022. The bare minimum is beating Tomac in the championship. If he does that, he will likely be in the top five of the championship and have won a few races. I am holding off on pronouncing Yamaha a contender. We need to see some results first."

How wrong was it: A wrist injury ended Ferrandis' season at Detroit. He was only eighth in the championship when his season ended. He wasn't really close to Tomac. I think eighth would have been fair for his results, but in ten starts he only had three top five results. 

12. Ken Roczen: #94 Honda CRF450R (133 points)
Victories: 1
Podium Finishes: 1
What did I write: "Good, but not good enough. After multiple comebacks from injuries, Roczen has been at the top, but not been the ruthless winner we had been expecting to break out many years ago. He should win multiple races, but after the last few years of fading late in the season, it is hard to see him breaking that trend. For Roczen to win the championship, he needs to be stellar early while others stumble around him."

How wrong was it: Roczen won the season opener, but never looked comfortable. He had a few falls early in races and couldn't rebound. He had only one other top five finish outside of his victory, but he ended his season prematurely. He did have COVID-19 just after the third round of the season in San Diego. This was another lost season for Roczen.

The Rest of the Field
Aaron Plessinger ran the first seven races of the season with KTM and was second in the second race of the season in Oakland. A broken arm suffered in a practice crash ended his season. He wound up 19th on 97 points but was only tenth in the championship when he exited. 

Joey Savatgy and Adam Cianciarulo each only ran the first two races of the season. Savatgy was eighth and 11th for Rocky Mountain KTM. Cianciarulo was 11th and 12th for Kawasaki. They wound up 28th and 29th in the championship respectively. Knee injuries ended both riders' seasons. 

Conclusion
This season started with a big shift in rider placement, but it ended with familiar faces on top, though another shift could be coming soon.

Tomac renewed his contract with Yamaha for the 2023 season, but he will be turn 30 years old just prior to next season. Jason Anderson will turn 30 early next season. Malcolm Stewart turns 30 this October. Barcia turned 30 back in March and Musquin is already 32 years old.

Supercross historical a young man's game and the top five in the championship are all about to30. Ricky Carmichael called it a full-time Supercross career when he was 26 years old. Ryan Dungey called it quits after winning his fourth Supercross championship at 27 years old, though Dungey recently announced he would return for the first two AMA Motocross events in 2022. Brayton went until he was 38 years old, but he and Chad Reed are exceptions to the rule.

A change will be coming soon, and it isn't clear what the near future looks like for Supercross. Webb will be there and so will Cianciarulo and Sexton. As for the rest of the lineup, there will be 250cc riders such as Hunter and Jett Lawrence, Jo Shimoda and Nate Thrasher, but that generation is quite here yet. The next big names might not even be on the scene yet. 

But I sense it is going to change quickly and Supercross will soon look different from what we have now.