Wednesday, January 4, 2023

2023 Supercross Season Preview

This January sees something new for the world of two-wheel off-road racing. The Supercross season is still getting underway, but this year it is more than the Supercross season. It is the inaugural season for the SuperMotocross World Championship, a combination of the 17-round Supercross season and the 11-round Motocross season, where the top 20 rides from the combined standings will automatically advance to a three-race playoff held in autumn to decide the SMX champion. 

Leg one of that championship will begin this weekend with Supercross about to open the curtain on its 2023 season. We are coming off a historic season and we could see more history made this year. A few notable riders have changed teams, a few other riders are ready for a breakthrough and we could be about to see the final season for one of the best riders in series history. 

Schedule
The season begins with four consecutive Californian rounds in January, starting in Anaheim before a trip up to Oakland ahead of a San Diego round before a second Anaheim race. The second Anaheim round will be a Triple Crown event. 

Houston and Tampa will lead off the month of February on the 4th and 11th respectively before an off-week on February 18th. After the off week, competition resumes on February 25 in Arlington with the second Triple Crown round of the season.  

The Daytona Bike Week round takes place on March 4 before Indianapolis, Detroit and Seattle. The first weekend of April will be an off weekend. Glendale will take place on April 8, the final Triple Crown event, before an afternoon round on April 15 at Atlanta. 

Supercross returns to New Jersey and the Meadowlands on April 22. Nashville hosts an afternoon round the following weekend. Denver and Salt Lake City close out the 2022 season with the season finale scheduled for May 13. 

Monster Energy Yamaha Factory Racing
Eli Tomac: #1 Yamaha YZ450F
What did he do in 2022: Tomac won the 2022 Supercross championship with seven victories though missed the final race of the season with a tweaked MCL. He also won the 2022 Motocross championship with 14 victories along with taking the Motocross des Nations for the United States and sweeping the opening three races of the World Supercross Championship.
What to expect in 2023: Tomac does not have plans to contest the Motocross season nor the SuperMotocross World Championship. He lifted Yamaha to the heights it had not seen in a decade. He should remain a championship threat, but it will not be easy. He enters the season tied with Chad Reed for fourth in Supercross victories, four behind Ricky Carmichael and six behind James Stewart for second all-time. There is a chance Tomac could obtain sole possession of second, but it will be close. If he does obtain second all for himself, Tomac will likely have his third Supercross championship in four seasons. 

Dylan Ferrandis: #14 Yamaha YZ450F
What did he do in 2022: A wrist injury ended Ferrandis after Detroit. Despite having only one podium finish in ten races, he was still 11th in the championship.
What to expect in 2023: Not quite matching the output of Tomac, Ferrandis had a good season going before his injury. I think he will spend most of the season in Tomac's shadow. There could be a race or two he finds himself fighting for a victory. A victory cannot be entirely ruled out, but it is not expected.

Monster Energy Kawasaki
Adam Cianciarulo: #9 Kawasaki KX450
What did he do in 2022: Cianciarulo's Supercross season ended after two rounds due to a knee injury.
What to expect in 2023: In three 450 SX seasons, Cianciarulo has had each season cut short due to injury. We know the Kawasaki can be competitive. After winning the Monster Energy Cup on his 450 debut in 2019, it felt like Cianciarulo was ready for the big time. It almost feels like that breakout is never going to happen. We can only hope he will contest all the races. If he makes 17 starts, something good will surely come from it. 

Jason Anderson: #21 Kawasaki KX450
What did he do in 2022: Anderson was second in the Supercross championship with seven victories, and third in the Motocross championship with one victory.
What to expect in 2023: Anderson performed above expectations last season and made it more of a championship even after Tomac pulled away in the middle portion of the season. I think we will see fewer victories and a step back in championship finish for Anderson in 2023. With how steep the competition could be, he could fall outside of the top five in the championship and that would not be surprising.  

Rockstar Energy Husqvarna Factory Team
Malcolm Stewart: #27 Husqvarna FC450 RE
What did he do in 2022: A career best third in the Supercross championship with three podium finishes.
What to expect in 2023: A good season, but Stewart will have stiff competition from Craig within the Husqvarna camp. Benefitting from attrition in 2022, repeating those results in 2023 will not net Stewart third in the championship. He will fall a few positions in the championship.

Christian Craig: #28 Husqavarna FC450 RE
What did he do in 2022: Craig was the 250SX West champion with four victories. In the 450cc Motocross championship, he was fifth in the championship with five podium finishes. 
What to expect in 2023: Craig had a good 450 MX season last summer. There will be a few rough races but he should have flashes that gets everyone's attention. Top five in the championship is a bit of a stretch, but he should be close to it. 

Red Bull KTM Factory Racing
Cooper Webb: #2 KTM 450SX-F Factory Edition
What did he do in 2022: Not win a race and only had four podium results on his way to finishing seventh in the championship.
What to expect in 2023: Things should get better than last season. Webb has won the last two championships to occur in an odd-numbered year. We know he has what it takes, but I don't see that happening again this season. He could win a race, but I do not see him winning more than two or three times and he will be in a scrap for a top five championship finish. 

Aaron Plessinger: #7 KTM 450SX-F Factory Edition
What did he do in 2022: Only contested the first seven races before breaking his arm in practice. His best Supercross result was second in the Anaheim season opener. Ended up seventh in the Motocross championship with three podium finishes. 
What to expect in 2023: Finish somewhere around his teammate Webb. All three KTM riders could be top five championship riders, but none feels like a knockout candidate for the championship. Plessinger can surely finish on the podium, but I am not convinced he can win let alone win with consistency.

Marvin Musquin: #25 KTM 450SX-F Factory Edition
What did he do in 2022: Ended up fourth in the Supercross championship with a victory and six podium finishes.
What to expect in 2023: The revelation of the 2022, Musquin drew much attention for returning to the mix. It will be tough to replicate those results. A race victory has some legs, but I don't think he will be winning enough to be a championship contender. It will be tight between the three KTM riders.

Troy Lee Designs/Red Bull/Gas Gas Factory Racing
Justin Barcia: #51 Gas Gas MC 450F
What did he do in 2022: Dropped to fifth in the championship after earning a ten-point penalty aggressive rider in the Salt Lake City season finale. He did not win a race but had six podium finishes. 
What to expect in 2023: Barcia always finds a way to be there without being the one leading the way. It will be tougher for him to crack the top five in the championship. I don't think he does it, but he should have a handful of podium finishes and at least one race where he is knocking on the door of a victory. 

Team Honda HRC
Chase Sexton: #23 Honda CRF450R
What did he do in 2022: Scored his maiden Supercross victory in San Diego, but had a few accidents and missed the Seattle round, but still finished sixth in the championship. Sexton was also second in the Motocross championship with eight victories after a slugfest through the final race with Tomac. He and Tomac made up two-thirds of the Motocross des Nations championship team from the United States.
What to expect in 2023: Sexton should push Tomac for the championship in Supercross. If Sexton is healthy, this could be his season. He has what it takes to match Tomac. If Tomac gets off to a slow start, Sexton could take control and be untouchable entering the final few rounds.

Colt Nichols: #45 Honda CRF450R
What did he do in 2022: Nichols missed the 2022 season after breaking both arms in a heat race in the Anaheim season opener. He was the 2021 250SX East champion. 
What to expect in 2023: One year after having his Supercross season end before it even got started, Nichols will feel the need to score results. He was impressive in his 2021 championship season. I don't think he can mix it with the big boys on a weekly basis, but there should be a handful of podium results. 

Twisted Tea/H.E.P. Motorsports Suzuki Racing Team
Kyle Chisholm: #11 Suzuki RM-Z450
What did he do in 2022: Fourteenth in the Supercross championship after starting only 12 races while also competing in four 250SX East races. His best 450SX finish was eighth at Atlanta. Tenth in Denver was his only other top ten result.
What to expect in 2023: Suzuki has had its trouble. I am not sure Chisholm can push for a top ten championship finish. A few top ten results would be a good start.

Ken Roczen: #94 Suzuki RM-Z450
What did he do in 2022: Roczen won the season opener, but a few falls and a bout of COVID disrupted his season and left him 12th in the championship. He did win the inaugural FIM World Supercross championship.
What to expect in 2023: Suzuki has not won a race since Roczen won the penultimate round of the 2016   season in the Meadowlands. Roczen is in the middle of a shift in his career. After being derailed for multiple years due to injury, Roczen has left Honda for the worst manufacture on the grid. This will be an eye-opener. Roczen could have a few good days. He should find a way into the championship top ten, but I think race victories will be tough to come by. 

The 2023 AMA Supercross season begins this Saturday at 10:00 p.m. ET with coverage on USA.